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    http://mwc.sagepub.com/Media, War & Conflict

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    DOI: 10.1177/17506352103765912010 3: 315Media, War & Conflict

    Thomas J. Johnson and Barbara K. Kayecharacteristics in 2003 and 2007

    Believing the blogs of war? How blog users compare on credibility and

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    Article

    Media, War & Conflict

    3(3) 315333 The Author(s) 2010

    Reprints and permission: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav

    DOI: 10.1177/1750635210376591

    http://mwc.sagepub.com

    Corresponding author:

    Barbara K. Kaye, Associate Program Chair, Master of Arts Degree in Communication, The Johns Hopkins

    University, 1717 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Suite 104, Washington, DC 20026, USA.

    Email: [email protected]

    MWC

    Believing the blogs of war?How blog users compare oncredibility and characteristicsin 2003 and 2007

    Thomas J. JohnsonSchool of Journalism, University of Texas at Austin, USA

    Barbara K. KayeJohns Hopkins University, Washington, DC, USA

    AbstractThis study surveyed those who used blogs for information about the war in Iraq to investigate the

    degree to which judgements of credibility, reliance, demographics, and political characteristics of

    war blog users have changed between 2003 and 2007. In both 2003 and 2007, blog users judgedblogs as more credible sources for war news than traditional media and their online counterparts.

    This study also found that different types of blogs were rated differently in terms of credibility in

    2007 with military and war blogs rated the most credible and media blogs being judged the lowest

    in credibility. Additionally, parallels are drawn between the findings and possible roles for blogs

    in the escalating war in Afghanistan. Results are also discussed in terms of the changing roles

    of the military in Iraq as well as the changing role of blogs in the Iraq War.

    Keywords

    blog credibility, blog use, blogs, credibility, milblogs, war in Iraq

    The war in Iraq provided a huge boost to the fledgling blogging community (Hastings,

    2003; Kaye and Johnson, 2004) because users found that blogs provided more personal

    insight and more thoughtful analysis of the war than the traditional media (Haigh and

    Pfau, 2007; Hebert, 2004). In 2003, bloggers were largely dismissed as small terriers

    who nipped at the ankles of traditional journalists but, by 2007, blogging had become

    commonplace as the number of blogs created by journalists and those hosted by

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    316 Media, War & Conict 3(3)

    traditional media had grown considerably (Eveland and Dylko, 2007; Singer, 2006). War

    blogs1 and milblogs, which are written by soldiers or others on the frontlines and focus

    solely on the war, also received considerable attention during the combat stage of the war

    in Iraq because they presented close-up and unvarnished views of military culture andmilitary life (Haigh and Pfau, 2007). Despite being initially viewed with skepticism,

    blogs were later touted as a genuine alternative to mainstream news outlets (Johnson

    and Kaye, 2007; Kaye and Johnson, 2004).

    At first, the war enjoyed enormous support as three-quarters of Americans applauded

    the decision to send troops to Iraq (Jones, 2007). But much has changed since the initial

    invasion. As the mission shifted from toppling Saddam Hussein to maintaining a fragile

    peace and propping up the Iraqi Government, support for the war plummeted, with only

    about one-third of the public supporting the war effort after the first three years (CNN.

    com, 2008). Also, attention to the war from the traditional media had dropped (Project

    for Excellence in Journalism, 2007a).

    Although several studies have examined the characteristics of individuals who seek

    out war information from blogs (Kaye and Johnson, 2004; Johnson et al., 2007;

    Perlmutter, 2008), how much they use blogs for war information (Smith and Rainie,

    2008; Project for Excellence in Journalism, 2005), how credible they find blog war infor-

    mation (Johnson and Kaye, 2004, 2008) and the perceived influence of blogs on war

    attitudes (Graf, 2006; Kaye and Johnson, 2004; Johnson and Kaye, 2007), these studies

    examined blog users at a single point in time, typically during the first months of the

    conflict. Studies have not investigated whether perceptions of credibility and use of

    blogs have changed as support for, and the nature of, the war in Iraq have changed.This study is based on two online surveys of politically interested internet users who

    visited blogs to get news about the Iraq War. The first was conducted from 23 April to 22

    May 2003, and the second exactly four years later. The purpose of this study is to com-

    pare changes from 2003 to 2007 in blog credibility and blog use for information about

    the war in Iraq. Moreover, military commanders were given the authority in 2005 to

    order service members to stop blogging or to submit their entries for review because of

    the belief that some content violated military regulations or security (Haigh and Pfau,

    2007; Strupp, 2005). Because milblog content may have become more constrained,

    users perceptions may have changed and these shifts may have been captured by thisstudys analysis.

    Also examined is the degree to which ideology and other characteristics of war blog

    users have changed from 2003 to 2007. The results identify factors that influence

    perceptions of credibility of blog war reports. Further, as the war in Afghanistan inten-

    sifies, the findings provide insight into the role blogs continue to play as providers of

    war information

    Media and foreign policy

    While the media may preach the philosophy ofdetachmentfrom story topics and their

    sources, they practice the policy ofattachmentin foreign policy coverage, in general, and

    war coverage, in particular. In the practice of attachment, journalists abandon the notion

    of neutrality and cover the war in terms of good guys/bad guys and good versus evil

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    Johnson and Kaye 317

    (Ruigrok, 2008) and, since the media rely heavy on government sources, that coverage

    typically reflects the governments policies (De Beer and Merrill, 1994; Fahmy and

    Johnson, 2010; Vultee, 2009), especially during wartime when the media are expected to

    take sides and support the government war policy through favorable coverage (Bell,2008; Bennett et al., 2006; Ruigrok, 2008). During the ground war in Iraq, US media

    coverage was overwhelmingly positive (Haigh et al., 2006; Pfau et al., 2005), with reporters

    acting as cheerleaders in support of the governments war effort rather than maintaining

    a critical distance. Bell (2008) lamented that war coverage signaled the death of news,

    because it promoted the governments efforts with reporters crossing the line from being

    detached observers to acting as if they were government representatives.

    Blogs and credibility during the war in Iraq

    Blogs gained credibility and popularity during the Iraq War for several reasons. First,

    many blogs were written by soldiers on the battlefield. These accounts provided more

    detail and insight than those penned by correspondents for the traditional media (Hebert,

    2004; Johnson and Kaye, 2008), and expertise is a major influence on whether a source

    is considered credible (Hovland, Janis and Kelley, 1953; Hovland, Lumsdaine and

    Sheffield, 1949; Metzger et al., 2003).

    Next, because bloggers do not need to adhere to standards of traditional journalistic

    values, such as objectivity, fairness and balance, they are free to interject their own

    views, experiences and insights into their reports (Johnson and Kaye, 2004; Park, 2009).

    For example, they often show images that might not meet media standards of goodtaste, such as bloodied soldiers or injured civilians (Haigh and Pfau, 2007; Park, 2009;

    Perlmutter, 2008).

    Lastly, users are drawn to the interactive nature of blogs. On most blogs, readers can

    respond to postings by the blogger or other users. These interactions promote debate

    about the wars progress (Hastings, 2003). Additionally, users often visit blogs to read

    other perspectives about the war and to become a part of a community of like-minded

    individuals (Kaye, 2007; Kaye and Johnson, 2004; Perlmutter, 2008; Wall, 2006).

    Credibility changes over time

    Media credibility fluctuates over time both in response to social and cultural events and

    to ethical lapses and criticisms of the media. For instance, media credibility rose along

    with the credibility of other government institutions in the wake of seminal events such

    as the Iran/Contra affair (Johnson, 1993), September 11th (Pew Research Center, 2001)

    and the war in Iraq (Pew Research Center, 2003). On the other hand, credibility ratings

    of information sources dropped after criticism of coverage of high-profile events such as

    the O. J. Simpson trial and Princess Dianas death (Johnson and Kaye, 2000) as well

    as more recent ethical lapses such as the Jayson Blair plagiarism debacle (Project forExcellence in Journalism, 2006).

    The percentage of individuals who asserted confidence in the press to present an

    accurate picture of the war in Iraq had dropped by nearly a half from 2003 to 2007 (81%

    to 42%), as had their confidence in the military to present a true picture of the war

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    318 Media, War & Conict 3(3)

    (Kohut, 2007). These decreases reflected the publics diminished support for the war.

    Further, as the war shifted from an attempt to oust Saddam Hussein to an attempt to

    maintain peace amid sectarian violence, even reporters expressed less support for the war

    effort (Into the Abyss, 2006; Fahmy and Johnson, 2007), which, in part, may have ledto flagging media attention and major shifts in themes of coverage of the war during

    2007 (Project for Excellence in Journalism, 2007a).

    But what is not clear is whether shifts in public and journalistic opinion about the war

    affected war coverage on the blogosphere. Most leading military and war blogs sup-

    ported the war effort (Haigh and Pfau, 2007), although political blogs2 that frequently

    discussed the war cut across political ideologies and thus expressed varying support of

    the war (Perlmutter, 2008).

    Characteristics of blog usersWhen blogs were first emerging as the new online hot spots, users were young, well-

    educated males with high incomes (Eveland and Dylko, 2007; Graf, 2006; Johnson et al.,

    2007; Perlmutter, 2008). Although these males are still frequent blog visitors, the typical

    blog reader is middle-aged, and the number of women and less educated users has

    increased (Kaye, in press).

    Further, some reports assert that blog users are generally Republican and conservative

    (Kaye and Johnson, 2004; Johnson et al., 2007), some claim they are equally liberal and

    conservative (Eveland and Dylko, 2007; Project for Excellence in Journalism, 2007b)

    and others find that blog users are more likely to be liberal (Blog Reader, 2007).These discrepancies may reflect some true ideological swings in the blogosphere.

    Blogs gained popularity with conservatives in the wake of September 11th and the war,

    especially with those who were upset with the traditional media that they perceived as

    being too sympathetic towards Muslims (Hamdy and Mobarak, 2004; Kaye and Johnson,

    2004). Liberals discovered blogging a few years later when Howard Dean used his blog

    to become an early frontrunner in the 2004 presidential election race (Stromer-Galley

    and Baker, 2006). The blogs people choose to visit is largely determined by ideology

    and, not surprisingly, individuals tend to seek out blogs that support their point of view

    (Choi et al., 2006; Johnson et al., 2007; Johnson et al., 2009).Other personal characteristics also influence which blogs are read most often.

    Individuals who are very interested in, and knowledgeable about, the war and politics, in

    general, actively search out specialized information such as that found on political and

    war blogs. Moreover, blog users are generally distrusting of the government but they

    believe they have the ability to bring about political change (Kaye and Johnson, 2004;

    Johnson and Kaye, 2007). Blog users distrust of the government extends to a distrust of

    the traditional media, thus they rely on blogs for political information (Graf, 2006; Kaye

    and Johnson, 2004; Johnson and Kaye, 2007).

    Blog use, reliance and participation

    As users became more reliant on blogs for information about the war, their blog usage

    patterns also changed. Experienced users spent more time online than newer users

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    Johnson and Kaye 319

    (Howard et al., 2001) because successfully negotiating internet components, such as

    blogs, requires expertise, and expertise is gained through increased use (Papacharissi and

    Rubin, 2000). Experienced users, then, may be less frustrated because they have devel-

    oped strategies for finding information and thus have become more reliant on blogs.In addition, experienced users know which blogs share their own views and therefore

    which ones post information they deem as credible (Johnson and Kaye 2004, Johnson

    et al., 2007). Conversely, infrequent, less experienced, blog users may be put off by the

    opinionated, diary-like nature of blogs and therefore judge them as not very credible.

    How blogs are used and the reasons why they are used can be attributed to their inter-

    active nature. Blog users can choose just to read posts on a blog (i.e. lurkers), post their

    analysis, or send comments to the blogger (Trammell et al., 2006). Therefore, blog use

    measures should go beyond asking users how long they have been accessing blogs or

    their level of reliance on them, but should also include their actual participation. For

    example, those who choose only to observe rather than participate in online communities

    do so to find out more about the community, fear that the group will be a poor fit or tend

    to not like the group dynamics (Van Uden-Kraan et al., 2008). Not surprisingly, then,

    people shift from being lurkers to participants the more often they visit an online com-

    munity and the more comfortable they become with the group and its members (Rafaeli

    et al., 2004).

    Research questions and hypotheses

    This study compares how blogs were used for information about the war in Iraq in 2003and in 2007 by addressing the following questions and hypothesis:

    RQ1: To what degree have blog users demographic characteristics (gender, age,

    education and income), war and general news interest, war knowledge and

    support, political characteristics, trust in the government and self-efficacy

    changed from 2003 to 2007?

    RQ2: To what degree have blog users perceptions of the influence of blogs on their

    attitudes and opinions about general issues and about the war changed from

    2003 to 2007?RQ3: To what degree have blog users perceptions of the credibility of blogs as

    sources of war information changed from 2003 to 2007?

    H1: War blog usage as measured by (a) hours per week, (b) reliance, and (c) par-

    ticipation significantly increased from 2003 to 2007.

    Method

    This study compares the results of two online surveys. The first survey was posted

    online from 23 April to 22 May 2003 (N= 3,747), and the second exactly four yearslater (N= 1,989). For both surveys, an announcement accompanied by a request to fill

    out the survey was placed on blogs of diverse ideologies and varying types of blogs, such

    as general information, media, political, war and military.3 In 2003, the survey was linked

    from 131 blogs (see note 2) and 14 blog-oriented bulletin boards/electronic mailing lists

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    320 Media, War & Conict 3(3)

    (see note 3). In 2007, the survey URL was posted on 70 blogs.4 From both survey years,

    the linked blogs were of diverse ideologies ranging from the progressiveHuffington Post

    to the conservativeBoortz News. Additionally, in both years, once a respondent completed

    the survey he or she was encouraged to snowball it to fellow blog readers by clicking ona link that automatically forwarded the survey.

    Blog credibility

    This study examined the changes in the perceptions of credibility of blogs from 2003 to

    2007. A multidimensional construct consisting of believability, fairness, accuracy and

    depth of information (Gaziano and McGrath, 1986; Johnson and Kaye, 2000) measured

    the credibility of blogs using a 15 point scale ranging from 1 = not very believable/fair/

    accurate/in-depth to 5 = very believable/fair/accurate/in-depth. In 2003, respondents were

    asked their judgements of credibility of blogs in general whereas, in 2007, blogs were

    categorized into five types: general information, media, political, war and military.

    Use, reliance and participation on blogs for war information (2003 and 2007)

    Respondents estimated the number of hours per week they spend on blogs. How much

    respondents rely on blogs was rated on a 5-point scale: 1 = never rely, 2 = rarely rely,

    3 = sometimes rely, 4 = rely, and 5 = heavily rely. Further, previous studies of uses of the

    internet and its components typically have defined use in terms of amount and length of

    time online but this study taps into how much people interact with blogs as an additionaluse measure. Respondents assessed their participation on blogs by marking whether

    they: (1) never participate (just read, never send in comments/links); (2) have low

    participation (mostly read, rarely send in comments/links); (3) sometimes participate

    (sometimes send in comments/links); (4) have high participation (often send in

    comments/links); or (5) have very high participation (very often send in comments/links).

    Political characteristics (2003 and 2007)

    War interest and knowledge, and blog influence.Respondents marked their level of interestand knowledge about the war in Iraq and the influence of blogs on their attitudes towards

    the war on a 0 to 10 scale (0 = no interest to 10 = extremely interested). They were

    also asked about their support for the war on a 5-point scale that ranged from 1 = not

    supportive at all to 5 = highly supportive.

    Interest in general news and blog influence. Respondents indicated their degree of inter-

    est in general news and current events on a 0 to 10 scale (0 = no interest to 10 = extremely

    interested). Similarly, respondents were asked about influence of blogs on their attitudes

    and opinions in general and on the war on a 0 to 10 scale (0 = no influence to 10 = absoluteinfluence).

    Trust and Self-Efficacy.Trust in the Government and Self-Efficacy were measured by

    items previously used in the National Election Studies conducted by the University of

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    Johnson and Kaye 321

    Michigan: Trust: Most of our leaders are devoted to service, Politicians never tell us

    what they really think and I dont think public officials care much about what people

    like me think; Self-Efficacy: People like me dont have any say about what the govern-

    ment does and Every vote counts in an election, including yours and mine. Theresponse options for each attitude index ranged from 1 = strongly disagree to 5 = strongly

    agree. The polarity was reversed on the second and third statements of the Trustindex

    and the firstEfficacy item.Summated indices for the Trustand for the Self-Efficacy itemswere then created. The reliability for the Trustindex is .74, and theEfficacy index is .54.5

    Political Party Ties and Ideology, 2007.Respondents were asked to indicate the political

    party with which they were registered: Republican, Democratic, Libertarian, Green,

    Other, Independent. A 0 to 10 scale (0 = weak party ties to 10 = very strong party ties)

    was used to assess degree of association with a political party. Respondents were

    also asked to indicate whether they consider themselves (1) very liberal, (2) liberal,

    (3) moderate, (4) conservative, or (5) very conservative.

    Political Party Ties and Ideology, 2003.Respondents were asked to select the option that

    most closely described their political preference: Strong Republican, Lean Toward

    Republican, Strong Democrat, Lean Toward Democrat, Independent, Other.

    Demographics

    Respondents indicated their gender, age at their last birthday, and selected their highestlevel of education from among seven options that ranged from less than high school, to

    PhD degree and other. In 2007, respondents entered their estimated income for the

    survey year. In 2003, respondents were asked to mark an income range: less than $10,000,

    $10,001$25,000, $25,001$40,000, $40,001$65,000, $65,001$80,000, $80,001

    $95,000, more than $95,000.

    Data analysis (2007 and 2003 data)

    Frequencies and mean scores were run on blog credibility, reliance, use and influence,war interest, knowledge and support, interest in general news, strength of party ties,

    political ideology, trust, self-efficacy, and demographic variables (gender, age, educa-

    tion and income). Mean scores were also calculated for each of the credibility measures

    (believability, fairness, accuracy, depth) of blogs. The four measures were then com-

    bined into a credibility index for each blog type. Cronbachs alpha and mean scores

    were calculated for each credibility index (Table 2).

    A data file that combined the responses from 2003 and 2007 was created to run

    independent sample t-tests to ascertain significant differences of mean scores of the

    credibility indices. Additionally, because statistical significance may be influenced bysample size, practical significance was tested using Cohens dmethod of determining

    effect size the strength of a relationship in terms of units of standard deviation

    (Stevens, 1986; Vogt, 1993), Cohen deemed an effect large ifd= .8, moderate ifd= .5

    and small ifd = .2 (Valentine and Cooper, 2003).

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    322 Media, War & Conict 3(3)

    At the time of data collection in 2003, blogs were largely general information blogs

    that covered many different subjects. As blogging became more popular and individuals

    with specific expertise and purposes set up their own blogs, and as media and other types

    of corporate enterprises hired individuals to set up blogs, blogs have become moretopically focused. Therefore, for this particular study, comparisons between general

    blogs in 2003 and general blogs in 2007 are appropriate, and analysis of 2007 blog types

    is limited to within-year analysis.

    Results

    The first research question examined the respondents demographic characteristics, war

    interest, war knowledge and support, general news interest, political characteristics, trust

    in the government and self-efficacy with specific focus on changes between 2003 and

    2007. The most striking demographic difference between 2003 and 2007 is that the

    average age of blog users had significantly increased from 38.9 years to 47.7 years old

    (t= 25.2, df = 3796,p < .001). Further, Cohens d= .70 indicates a large effect in age

    between the two years. In general, the trend is for blog readers to be older and they

    continue to be males who are highly educated and have high incomes.

    Slight shifts occurred in interest in, and support of, the war, and interest in general

    news between the two years studied. In 2007, respondents indicated a significantly stronger

    interest in the war (M= 9.7, range 110) (t= 27.3, df = 4446, p < .001) and in general

    news (M= 9.7) (t= 40.5, df = 4342,p < .001) than in 2003 (M= 8.4, 8.0, respectively)

    but support for the war decreased significantly (2003,M= 4.0, range 15; 2007,M= 3.6)(t= 11.6, df = 3639,p = .000). Knowledge of the events had, however, stayed the same

    (2003M= 4.3, 2007M= 4.2). Cohens dindicates large effects for general news interest

    (d= 1.09) and war interest (d= .72), but only small effects for war support (d= .29) and

    knowledge of the war (d= .00).

    Significant differences were apparent in the levels of trust in the government and

    feelings of self-efficacy. In 2003, one-third (32.3%) of blog users reported high/very

    high trust but by 2007 only 13.2 percent was highly trusting. Further, in 2003 only 22.1

    percent reported low to very low levels of trust compared to 2007 when almost four out

    of ten (39.8%) reported they were not very trusting. Mean scores (range 315) indicatea significant decrease in levels of trust in government between 2003 and 2007 (2003

    M= 8.9, 2007M= 7.4) (t= 20.8, df = 4181,p < .001). According to Cohens d(d= .57)

    the practical significance is moderate.

    The percentage of blog users who report high/very high levels of self-efficacy had

    also decreased from 64.4 percent in 2003 to 51.0 percent in 2007. Independent sample

    t-test demonstrates a significant decrease in mean scores (range 210) between the two

    years (2003M= 7.6, 2007M= 7.1) (t= 9.3, df = 3848,p < .001), however Cohens test

    indicates a small effect size (d= .24).

    Comparisons of political party affiliation indicate that Republicans dominated theblogosphere, though the percentage of strong Republican supporters decreased from 48

    percent to 40.0 percent from 2003 to 2007. Democrats represented about one in six blog

    readers (2007 = 16.6%; 2003 = 14.5%). The study also found that an increasing number

    of blog users did not identify with either major party or consider themselves independent

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    Johnson and Kaye 323

    but rather listed themselves as Libertarian or Green. In 2007, respondents were asked

    to indicate their political ideology. Almost 6 out of 10 (57.6%) asserted that they were

    conservative/very conservative, one-quarter (24.4%) moderate, and the remaining 18.0

    percent liberal/very liberal.

    Table 1. Profile of blog users and reliance on blogs: 2003 and 2007

    2007 (N= 1,989) 2003 (N= 3,747)Ind. samplest-scores

    Cohens dEffects size

    GenderMale 77.3% 76.5%

    Female 22.7% 23.5%Age (mean) 47.7 (SD 12.8) 38.9 (SD 12.5) t= 25.2* .70

    Income (mean) $90,475 N/ALess than $25,000 N/A 16.5%$25,0001$80,000 N/A 54.3%$80,001+ N/A 29.2%

    EducationLess than high school/grad 2.5% 3.4%Some college/degree 58.0% 59.3%Graduate 31.6% 33.3%

    Political Attitudes(mean score)War Interest (range 110) 9.7 (SD 1.6) 8.4 (SD 1.8) t= 27.3* .72Knowledge of War (range15)

    4.2 (SD .78) 4.3 (SD .74) t=-1.6 .00

    War Support (range 15) 3.6 (SD 1.5) 4.0 (SD 1.3) t=-11.6** -.29General News Interest(range 110)

    9.7 (SD 1.5) 8.0 (SD 1.6) t= 40.5* 1.09

    Blog Influence war opinion(range 010)

    6.8 (SD 2.5) 5.7 (SD 2.5) t= 16.1* .44

    Blog Influence in general

    (range 010)

    6.7 (SD 2.3) 5.8 (SD 2.1) t= 8.2* .42

    Hours per week on blogs 11.4 (SD 8.3) 9.1 (SD 7.7) t= 10.2* .29Blog Participation(range 15)

    2.4 (SD .91) 3.0 (SD 1.1) t=-25.1* -.58

    Trust in the GovernmentVery high/high Trust 13.2% 32.3%Moderate Trust 47.0% 45.6%Very low/low Trust 39.8% 22.1%Mean (range 315) 7.4 (SD 2.5) 8.9 (SD 2.7) t=-20.8* -.57

    Self-Efficacy

    Very high/high Efficacy 51.0% 64.4%Moderate Efficacy 37.1% 29.3%Very low/low Efficacy 11.9% 7.3%Mean (range 210) 7.1 (SD 1.9) 7.6 (SD 1.8) t=-9.3* -.24

    (Continued)

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    The second research question concerns changes in the influence of blogs. Between

    2003 and 2007, blogs became more influential in shaping attitudes towards the war and

    other issues in general. In 2003, respondents rated blogs as moderately influential regard-

    ing the war (M= 5.7, range 110) and general news (M= 5.8) but, four years later, their

    influence significantly increased (war,M= 6.8, general issues,M= 6.7) (war influence

    t= 16.1, df = 552,p < .001; general news influence t= 8.2, df = 4048,p < .001). Further,

    Cohens dindicates only a moderate increase in the influence of blogs on opinions about

    the war (d= .44) and about other news issues (d= .42).The first hypothesis states that the number of hours per week on blogs, reliance on

    blogs and blog participation will have significantly increased between 2003 and 2007.

    The hypothesis was partially supported as the number of hours spent per week on

    blogs (2003 M= 9.1 hours; 2007 M= 11.4 hours) significantly increased (t= 10.2,

    df = 3606, p < .001), but levels of participation significantly decreased (range 15;

    2003M= 3.0, 2007M= 2.4) (t= 25.1, df = 4753,p < .001) as did reliance (t= 8.2,

    df = 4753, p < .001). Moreover, the statistically significant difference in hours on

    blogs may be largely due to the sample size rather than to a true increase in time spent

    on blogs (Cohens d= .29). However, Cohens ddoes show a moderate effect for thedecrease in blog participation (d= .58) (Table 1).

    A slightly smaller percentage (68.4%) of respondents reported high/very high reliance

    in 2007 compared to 2003 (76.9%), while the percentage of those who moderately rely

    on blogs increased to 21.6% from 13.7% in 2003. In general, these findings suggest that

    Table 1. (Continued)

    2007 (N= 1,989) 2003 (N= 3,747)Ind. samplest-scores

    Cohens dEffects size

    Political IdeologyVery Conservative/Conservative

    57.6% N/A

    Moderate 24.4% N/AVery Liberal/Liberal 18.0% N/AMean score (15) 3.4 N/A

    Political PartyRepublican 40.0% N/ADemocrat 16.6% N/AIndependent 17.7% N/A

    Strong/Lean Republican N/A 48.0%Strong/Lean Democrat N/A 14.5%Independent N/A 21.4%

    Reliance on BlogsVery high/high Reliance 68.4% 76.9%Moderate Reliance 21.6% 13.7%Very low/low Reliance 10.1% 9.5%Mean (range 15) 3.8 (SD 1.1) 4.1 (SD 1.1) t=-8.2* -.27

    *p< .001; **p = .000.

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    Johnson and Kaye 325

    blog users may have shifted from high to more moderate reliance on blogs, although the

    effect is small (Cohens d= .27) (Table 1).

    The third research question examined how credibility scores for blogs for war infor-

    mation in 2003 compared to 2007. For the 2007 survey, respondents were asked to ratethe believability, fairness, accuracy and depth of five blog types: general information,

    media, political, war and military, whereas in 2003 they were asked about blogs in general.

    In both 2003 and 2007, blogs were rated as only moderately credible.

    In 2003, general information blogs were seen as more believable (range 15,M= 3.6),

    accurate (M= 3.5) and in-depth (M= 4.0) than in 2007. In 2003 and 2007, general infor-

    mation blogs were rated the same in terms of fairness (M= 3.2). Independent samples

    t-scores indicate that credibility index ratings of general information had decreased in

    four years. The comparison of general information blogs showed that overall credibility

    significantly dropped from a mean of 14.3 (range 420) in 2003 to a mean of 12.9 in

    2007 (t= 16.9; df = 5494;p < .001), but practical significance (Cohens d= .51) shows

    only a moderate effect.

    When analyzing different types of blogs in 2007, military blogs rated highest in believ-

    ability (M= 3.8), fairness (M= 3.5), accuracy (M= 3.6) and depth (M= 3.8) than any

    other blog type. War blogs were judged as the second most credible blog type (Table 2).

    Overall, between 2003 and 2007, blog users became more interested in general news

    and the war, and less supportive of the governments war efforts. They spent more time

    on blogs but participated at a lower level and they felt that blogs had become more influ-

    ential. They were less trusting of the government and were not as self-efficacious as

    four years earlier. Blog users tended to be conservative and affiliated with the Republicanparty. Additionally, the average age of blog users increased by 9 years.

    Table 2. Perceptions of believability, fairness, accuracy and depth of different blog types

    Mean scores (scale 15)

    Believability Fairness Accuracy Depth CredibilityIndex (420)

    War blogs 2007 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.6 13.5 (N= 1796)= .89 (SD 3.3)

    Military blogs 2007 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.8 14.7 (N= 1799)= .90 (SD 3.5)

    Political blogs 2007 3.1 2.6 2.9 3.4 12.0 (N= 1811)= .84 (SD 3.1)

    Media journalism blogs 2007 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.9 11.0 (N= 1806)= .85 (SD 3.0)

    General info. blogs 2007 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 12.9 (N= 1838)

    =

    .80 (SD 2.4)General info. blogs 2003 3.6 3.2 3.5 4.0 14.3 (N= 3659)= .79 (SD 2.9)

    t-score =-16.9*.Cohens d=-.51

    *p < .001.

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    326 Media, War & Conict 3(3)

    Discussion

    This study surveyed individuals who used blogs for information about the war in Iraq to

    discover the degree to which reliance, demographics and political characteristics of warblog users changed between 2003 and 2007. This study also examined whether blog

    users judgements of credibility of blogs as sources of war information had changed

    amidst a huge increase in the number of blogs and a decrease in support for the war.

    Although this studys findings are limited to the time period of 2003 to 2007, they are

    especially pertinent in 2010 as the war in Iraq is winding down but the war in Afghanistan

    is heating up. As this study shows, blogs were very influential in setting perceptions at the

    onset of the war in Iraq and had become even more influential in shaping these attitudes as

    the war continued. As blogs had the power to sway public opinion about the war in Iraq from

    2003 to 2007, presumably they still have the power to do so regarding the war in Afghanistan.

    While this studys respondents claimed that blogs had more of an influence on them

    in 2007 than they did in 2003, it is not clear just how much of an influence blog use had

    on the respondents support for the war, which had weakened since 2003. Regardless, the

    decline in war support may have produced other political consequences such as a drop in

    trust in government and a decreased sense that an individual can influence what happens

    in Washington. Yet, despite these findings, this study indicated that interest in the war

    had intensified.

    Although blogs became more influential between 2003 and 2007, and the amount of

    time users spent on blogs looking for war information increased, reliance on blogs for

    war information decreased. These findings are an interesting contradiction. At the time,reliance on non-traditional online sources, such as blogs, was increasing as people

    learned which sources were reliable and which ones were not (Johnson and Kaye, 2004;

    Johnson et al., 2007). As both blog use and interest in the war increased, support for the

    war weakened, yet many blogs remained supportive. Blog users, therefore, may have

    been looking for other more balanced sources of war information and thus became less

    reliant on blogs. The heightened war interest came at a time when the mainstream press

    had reduced both its presence in Iraq and the amount of space it devoted to it (Project for

    Excellence in Journalism, 2007a). While the number of dramatic events that highlighted

    the initial ground war had dwindled, there had been a surge in the number of troops whowere fighting the war and were still in harms way, which may account for the stepped-up

    interest in the war among blog users.

    In particular, the period from 2003 to 2007 had seen the rise of the milblogs. Milbloggers

    provided photos and videos of their experiences in Iraq and gave their readers a glimpse

    into military life and culture. As the media curtailed their coverage, more people turned to

    war and military blogs for in-depth information, analysis and opinions of the war missing

    from traditional media (Cioppa, 2009; Johnson and Kaye 2004; Kaye and Johnson, 2004).

    The rise of milblogs may explain why blog participation had decreased. Rather than going

    to political or war blogs that encouraged users to share their views about the war, usersvisited milblogs where they were more likely to learn about military life rather than argue

    a point of view.

    It will be interesting to see if the same blog usage patterns follow as the war in

    Afghanistan continues. War and military blogs could become the primary sources of war

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    Johnson and Kaye 327

    news if consumers believe that mainstream media are downplaying the events in

    Afghanistan. If the mainstream media are seen as unreliable and not very credible, then

    perhaps their online counterparts will be viewed as such as well, and blogs will further

    surpass them as sources of war information.This study also assessed the perceptions of blog credibility. General information blogs

    declined in credibility from 2003 to 2007. This change may signify that those who still

    relied on blogs were shifting from more general blogs to ones specifically devoted to war

    information. Indeed, war and military blogs were deemed the most credible blog types

    and media blogs were judged the lowest.

    War and military blogs may be perceived as more credible sources for war news than

    other blog types and traditional media because they were created by citizens in Iraq who

    directly observed the war, or by soldiers fighting in the conflict. These war and military

    bloggers may be perceived as having more expertise than the reporters covering the war

    because they provided in-depth eyewitness accounts of the war and personal perspec-

    tives on events, and they were more familiar with military and Iraqi culture than US

    reporters covering the war. Depth of information, expertise and trustworthiness are the

    major factors people use in assessing credibility (Cioppa, 2009; Hovland, Lumsdaine

    and Sheffield, 1949; Hovland Janis and Kelley, 1953; Johnson and Kaye, 2004, 2009).

    This studys findings could portend that war and military blogs will be viewed as the

    most credible blog sources of news and information from Afghanistan, with media blogs,

    political blogs and traditional media taking a lesser role.

    This study also examined the political and demographic characteristics of those who

    use blogs for war information. Between 2003 and 2007, blog users continued to be well-educated males with high incomes. The average age of blog users in 2007 was signifi-

    cantly older, which may reflect overall changes in the blogosphere. Blogs have evolved

    from being online diaries posted mainly by young people to keep in touch with family

    and friends to being content-driven venues that contain news and perspective of events

    such as war, that appeal to an older audience.

    Regarding political ideology, this study found that those who sought out blog informa-

    tion about the war in Iraq were still predominantly Republican, although the percentage

    of Republicans decreased slightly from 2003 to 2007. Additionally, conservatives greatly

    outnumbered liberals by more than three to one in 2007. This dominance of conservativeRepublicans supports studies that have found that war and military blog users are largely

    conservative (Kaye and Johnson, 2004; Johnson et al., 2007).

    Overall, with the war in Iraq winding down, support for the intensifying war in

    Afghanistan could very well have an effect on the use of blogs and on other media for

    war information and on perceptions of credibility. The public is not as supportive of

    the war in Afghanistan as it was at the beginning of the war in Iraq. Further, support is

    slipping very quickly (ABC News/Washington Post Poll, 2009). By October 2009, only

    about 45 percent of Americans favored the war, down from 63 percent six months earlier

    (Polling Report, 2009). Using this study as an indicator, if support for the war inAfghanistan continues to drop, reliance on blogs for war information could be weak

    depending on whether they remain supportive of war in general. Since blog users tend to

    gravitate to information they already support, it is likely that conservative males, who

    identify with the Republican party will be the most likely to use blogs to monitor the war.

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    328 Media, War & Conict 3(3)

    Further, perceptions of credibility could suffer among moderates and liberals if blogs

    are viewed as pushing a pro-war agenda or taking stances that run contrary to public

    opinion in general. If blogs are seen as too one-sided, more demographically and politi-

    cally mainstream blog users could turn to other online sources or even back to traditionalmedia for their war news.

    Limitations and suggestions for future study

    This study relied on self-selected respondents who visit blogs for war information.

    Therefore, results reported here cannot be generalized to all blog users. The internet does

    not provide a reliable mechanism to randomly sample the entire online population or

    smaller subgroups such as blog users (Kaye and Johnson, 1999). Non-probability sampling

    is appropriate for posting a survey when random samples are not possible (Babbie,1990). Similarly, snowball sampling is especially useful for reaching populations that are

    inaccessible or hard to find (Web Center for Social Research Methods, 2008; Atkinson

    and Flint, 2001) and has been used in other published internet and blog studies (Johnson

    and Kaye, 2004, 2009; Kaye, 2005, 2007).

    This study compared blog use for war information in 2003 and 2007. A third wave

    should be conducted while Barack Obama is in office, and the war in Afghanistan is

    again escalating to see if credibility changes under the war policies of a different admin-

    istration and a different war. A content analysis could be conducted of major general

    information/citizen blogs, media/journalism blogs, war blogs and milblogs to see how they

    cover the war changes over time. Finally, the bloggers themselves could be surveyed todiscover how, if at all, their coverage of the Iraq War has changed over time and what

    factors led to changes in that coverage.

    Notes

    1. General information/citizen blogs are those in which citizens play an active role in the process

    of collecting, reporting, analyzing and disseminating news and information. Media/journal-

    ism blogs encompass those that report news and option and those that are about journalism.

    Bloggers are usually, but not always, journalists. A warblog is concerned with terrorism, war

    and conflict, often with a pro-military stance. A military blog (milblog) is a blog written bymembers or veterans of any branch of the US armed services, posting directly from the front

    lines in Iraq and Afghanistan. Political blogs primarily comment on politics, and they often

    have a clearly stated political bias.

    2. Links to the survey were posted on the following weblogs in 2003: 2020hindsight,

    Ackackackcom, Across Atlantic, Africapundit, Agonist, Alphecca, Altercation, Alternet,

    Amish Tech Support, Amishblogmo, AndrewOlmsted, AndrewSullivan, Apostablog,

    Atlanticblogcom, Atriosblogspotcom, Bag and Baggage, Balloon Juice, Baseball Musings,

    Behold, blogspot, Biasblogfodder, BlissfulKnowledge, Blogdex, Bloglogic, Blogosphere,

    Blogs Of War, Blogtporg/K, Boingboingnet, BryonScott, Buck Stops Here, Cnn.com, ColdFury, ComeOn, CoranteOnBlogging, Corantec, Corner On NRO, Counterrevolutionary,

    CraigsChamp, Crblogspot, Critical Mass, Cut On Bias, Daily Dish, Daily Pundit, Daniel

    Drezner, Davespickscom, Daypopcom, Dead Parrot Society, Dean Esmay, Doc Searls,

    Docweblogs, DrudgeReport, Erablognet, Erin OConnor, Ever Changing Select, Eyndenloo,

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    Johnson and Kaye 329

    Fark, Fat Guy, FreeRepublic, Geek-Chick, Give Blogs4god, Glenn Reynolds, Goatsec,

    Greenfield, HanlonVision, Hierogrammate, HighClear, Hoder, HomelessGuy, Hoosier

    Review, HPANA, Hunnet, IdleType, Ihodercom, Instapundit, J.D. Lasica New Media

    Musings, Jeff Cooper, JessicasWell, JoanneJacobs, JonahGoldberg, Josh Claybourne,Journalsp, Jsnotesblogs, LA Livejournal, Leftcoastblog, Leuschke, LGF, Light Of Reason, Like

    A Hooligans, Lucianne, Matwyglesias.com, Mediaticblog, Melblogger, Metafilter, Metapop,

    Midwest Conservative, MouseMusings, MSNBC, National Review, Newsweek.com, No. 2.

    Pencil, Ogloboc, OnBias, Parduedur, Pattern Recognition, Popdex, Post-Atomic, Powerline,

    RachaelLucas, RealClearPolitics, Rebecca Blood, Resurrections, Ritingonwall, Rjwest.com,

    Sassafrass, Seaofkitt, Shellen.com, Silflay, Hraka, Slate, Slings and Arrows, SouthKnoxBubba,

    Suzanna Cornett, Tacitus, Tapped, Tim Blair, Uncorrelated.com, Unqualified Offering, Volokh

    Conspiracy, Warblogs, Winds Of Change, Zogbyblogspot.com

    3. Links to the survey were posted on the following bulletin boards/electronic mailing lists:

    Bloggingcommunity@Yahoo, Colorado Bloggers, Comp.Dcom.Telecom, Dfwblogs, Lds-Poll@

    Yahoogroups.Com, Pinoybloggers, Salon Blogs Group, Telecomdigest, Theblosxom,Val-L,

    weblogdeveloperusergroup, weblogemailgroup, weblogusersgroup,Yahoogroups-Syndic8

    4. Links to the survey were posted on the following blogs in 2007: A Family in Baghdad,

    A Family in Iraq, Ace of Spades HQ, Ann Althouse, AOL, Appalachian Scribe, Betseys

    Page, Blogometer, Boortz News, brianhornback.blogspot, Brians Blog, Center for Citizen

    Media, Citizen Journalism, CNN, Crooks and Liars, Daily Kos, Dan Gillmor, DC Metblogs,

    Democratic Underground, edwardwillett.blogspot, Fark, Firedoglake, Hassenpfeffer,

    Highclearing, Hotline Blogometer, Joanne Jacobs, journalism.nyu.edu/pubzone/weblogs/

    pressthink, Huffington Post, Hullabaloo, Infomaniac, Instapolit, Instapundit, Jay Rosens

    Press Think, Jesus General, Journalism.co.uk, Khalid Jarrar, Knox News, KnoxViews,

    Mike the Mad Biologist, Mindy McAdams, Moderate Voice, MoveOn.org, NewsBusters,

    NewsDissector, NewsHounds, No Silence Here, Nofishnonuts, Obsidian Wings,

    Oraculations, Outside the Beltway, Poliblogger, Political Mavens-Steven Taylor, Politics

    in the Zeros, Power of Narrative, PowerLine, Poynter.org/Romenesko, Pressthink.org, Raw

    Story, Secrets In Baghdad, Skippy the Bush Kangaroo, Slate, Teaching Online Journalism

    (UNC), Tell Me a Secret, tojou.blogspot, Unqualified Offerings, Wake Up America, www.

    wakeupamericans-spree.blogspot

    5. The efficacy index is below the normal .70 standard for internal reliability. However, low reli-ability scores are not unusual for an index of only two items. One of the main ways to ensure

    reliability is to use measures that have proven reliable in previous research (Babbie, 1990).

    Therefore, the authors combined the two items into an index because these two items from the

    National Election Studies have proven reliable in past studies.

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    Biographical notes

    Thomas J. Johnson is the Amon G. Carter, Jr. Centennial Professor in the School ofJournalism at University of Texas at Austin. His fields of interest are public opinion

    and political communication research, particularly the role of the media in presidential

    elections. Address: School of Journalism, University of Texas, 2504A Whitis Avenue,

    Austin, TX 78712, USA. [email: [email protected]]

    Barbara K. Kaye is Associate Program Chair for the Online Master of Arts Degree inCommunication at Johns Hopkins University. (On leave as Professor in the School of

    Journalism & Electronic Media, University of Tennessee-Knoxville). Research interests:

    media effects and consumer uses of new communication technologies.