Megatrends » Political framework · Diesel motors are primarily used in vehicles that are expected to have high mileage. + New car registrations in the EU 28 in 2016 Existing vehicle

Megatrends »

Political framework »

Transportation sector »

Other sectors »

Outlook »

Transportation sector

Transportation today Efficiency on the road Regulation on the roadCO2 emissions on the road

CO2 Regulation in Europe

Page 1

Trucks are facilitating the Single European Market

Source: Eurostat, Transport in Figures, 2014

Development of freight transport in the EU

1995 =100

1.289 1.725

388

411237

264

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

► The merging of the EU triggered tremendous growth in the area of freight transport.

► The creation of the Single European Market fuelled growth on both road and rail.

► Over 70 per cent of Europe’s freight is transported by truck.

► Since 2007, freight transport in Europe has decreased by 9 per cent.

+

Freight transport in the EU

1995 and 2013, in tkm

1,914

2,400

Road Rail Other Total


Page 2

Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends



High level of dynamics in air transport, but cars are the backbone.

Source: Eurostat, Transport in Figures, 2014

Development of passenger traffic in the EU

1995 =100

3,9375419

422

530348

605

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

119,0015

504 116526126

+ ► Strong growth in air transport since the fall of the government monopoly.

► Considerable growth in rail transport since the EU started promoting national rail transport

markets.

► Over 80 per cent of traffic is attributable to passenger transportation on roads. A stagnation

has been evident since 2004.

Passenger transport in the EU

1995 and 2014, in pkm

5,329

6,554

Cars Rail Air

168

Bus Motorcycle


Page 3




Official forecasts for freight transport in 2030 Trucks will continue to dominate the considerably growing transport market.

Sources: EU, Trends to 2050, 2014; BMVI, Forecast of nationwide transport relations in Germany 2030, 2014

+ ► There is some evidence that the PRIMES Prognosis from 2013 is outdated. It predicts an

increase in goods traffic between 2010 and 2015, while it actually heavily decreased.

In billions of tonne kilometres

Traffic forecast for the EU Traffic forecast for Germany

337 429393

602

1.764

2.399

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

2010 2030

+36%

+54%

+27%

62 77108

154

437

607

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

2010 2030

Road

Rail

Waterway+39%

+43%

+23%


Page 4




Current forecasts for freight transport in 2030

Quellen: Prognos, World Transport Report 2015//2016


Limited increase in road transport in comparison to the official prognosis

► The current prognosis covers 12 EU Countries with up 93 percent of total road transport.

The coverage of rail and inland waterways is less sufficient.

► Die Wachstumsraten nach 2015 weichen kaum von denen der offiziellen Prognose ab.

+

Traffic forecast for GermanyTraffic forecast for the EU

312458

1.658

2.045

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

2010 2030

+23%

+47%

+25%62 72107

160

435

554

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

2010 2030

Road

Rail

InlandWaterway

+27,5%

+49%

+15%

Verkehrssektor

Politischer Rahmen Andere Sektoren AusblickMegatrends Verkehr heute CO2-Emissionen Straße Effizienz Straße Regulierung Straße

In billions of tonne kilometres

5

Official passenger transport forecasts for 2030Cars will form the backbone of passenger transport for the long term.

Sources: EU, Trends to 2050, 2014; BMVI, Forecast of nationwide transport relations in Germany 2030, 2014

► Over the next 20 years, passenger transport will show a slower rate of growth than freight

transport.

► Rail transport is expected to show substantial growth and to gain market shares.

► But: In passenger kilometres, between now and 2030, motor vehicle transport in the EU

will increase by more than the total rail traffic being transported in 2030.

+

In billions of passenger kilometres

Traffic forecast for the EU Traffic forecast for Germany

53 8784 10078

83

902

992

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

2010 2030

Motorisedindividualtransport

Public roadtransportation

Rail

Air

+6%

+19%

+65%

+10%

527 888496

714513602

4.893

5.714

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

2010 2030

+18%

+49%

+69%

+17%


Page 6




Limit values affect only new vehicles. Existing vehicles are not covered by the regulation.

Source: ACEA, 2016; VDA, 2015

► Each year, only about 5 per cent of the vehicle fleet in the EU is replaced.

► Existing vehicles hold huge potential for CO2 reduction.

► That is why measures for replacing the existing vehicle fleet are essential.

+

Approx. 14.7 million

new vehicles were

licensed in the EU in 2015.

Altogether, approx.

255 million cars

are licensed in the EU.


Page 7




The existing vehicle fleet represents the technology from 10 years ago.

Sources: Eurostat 2014; ANFAC 2014

+ ► Licensed cars in Europe are 9.6 years old, on average – and the trend is increasing.

► The average age of cars in several member states is more than 10 years.

► But: The best method for reducing CO2 is to speed up the rate at which existing vehicles are replaced.

Age of passenger cars in Europe

as percentage in 2014

Average age of licensed cars in 2014

in years

9%

15%

29%

47%

< 2 years

2–5 years

5–10 years

> 10 years

17,5

14,5

13,2

12,9

12,3

11,8

11,6

11,4

10,2

9,9

9,0

8,7

8,5

7,9

7,8

PolandCzech Republik

Spain

HungaryGreeceEstonia

Portugal

FinlandSweden

Italy

GermanyFrance

Belgium

AustriaUK


Page 8




In its reduction of CO2, Europe relies on diesel.

Sources: EEA, Monitoring CO2 emissions from new passenger cars, 2015 ACEA, 2014

► Since the mid-90s, Europe’s fleet of new vehicles has a growing share of cars that run on diesel.

But now it is declining

► Diesel plays a significant part in Europe’s CO2 reduction progress.

► Diesel motors are primarily used in vehicles that are expected to have high mileage.

+

New car registrations in the EU 28 in 2016 Existing vehicle fleet in the EU

49,4%

47,0%

3,6%

Diesel Petrol Other

265.252

58.250

64.342

92.785

100% = 14,7 million new car registrations

LPG

CNG

Plug-In

Electric

41,0%

54,1%

4,9%

Diesel Petrol Other

100% = 252 million existing cars


Page 9




Summary: Transportation today

► Road traffic is the indispensible backbone of mobility for passengers and

freight in Europe.

► According to official forecasts, the dominance of roads in Europe will not

change between now and 2030.

► Since 2007, traffic volumes on the road have declined. Today, these volumes

are often below the projected levels; and even the official growth expectations

must be questioned.

► The replacement of Europe’s existing vehicles is an effective measure for

reducing emissions; but it will be another ten years before the more efficient

new vehicles dominate the fleet.

Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends CO2 emissions on the road Efficiency on the road




10

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

EU 28 EU 15 Germany

115,7

100,2

124,4 119,2

112,6

128,7

The turnaround came in Germany first.

CO2 emissions of road traffic, 1990 = 100

+ ► Since 1999, emissions in Germany have declined by 24 million tonnes and are now

on the levels of 1990.

► From 2000 on, an increase in emissions could primarily be seen in Eastern and

Southern Europe.

► The turnaround in the EU 28 did not begin until the crisis of 2008.

Source: EEA, 2017 (v20)


Page 11




Car traffic in the EU: CO2 emissions on the decline since 2007 Absolute CO2 emissions, 1990 = 100

100,00

105,00

110,00

115,00

120,00

125,00

130,00

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Road Car

128,3

119,2

123,1

114,5

► Car emissions have shown a much lower rate of increase than overall road traffic emissions.

► Car emissions have largely stagnated since 2002 and have been rapidly declining from 2007 till

2012. They increased in 2014.

► Emissions are rising in 2014 and 2015

+

Source: EEA, 2017 (v20)


Page 12




EU: The share of emissions from freight transport has significantly increased.In millions of tonnes of CO2

Source: Odyssee Database, 2017

► Since 2007, the CO2 emissions

of road traffic in the EU have

been declining.

► Between 1990 and 2007,

emissions from truck traffic in

particular saw a rapid increase.

► Since 2007, emissions from

freight transport have been

declining again.

► The increase of emissions from

car traffic was relatively

moderate. Emissions have

stagnated since around 2004

and have been declining from

2007 till 2012 now rising again.

+0 500 1.000

1990 2007 2015

Total

road traffic

Cars

Heavy and

lighter-weight

trucks

+19%

+14%

+28%

Shift

1990–2014

-7,4%

Shift

2007–2014

-6,8%

-8,5%


Page 13




Emissions from new vehicles decreasing rapidly.

Sources: ACEA Pocket Guide, 2016

< 110 g per km

< 120 g per km

< 125 g per km

≥ 125 g per km

CO2 emissions


Page 14




Country

Average CO2 emissions

of newly registered cars

in 2015, in g per km

Change from

2007 to 2015,

as percentage

Portugal 104,9 -27,25

Netherlands 105,5 -35,98

Denmark 105,9 -33,73

Greece 106,3 -35,69

France 109,8 -26,51

Croatia 111,7 k.A.

Malta 111,7 -24,42

Irland 112,0 -30,69

Italy 113,4 -22,59

Spain 114,4 -25,33

Belgium 115,9 -24,15

Slovenia 119,0 -23,86

Finnland 119,9 -32,37

UK 120,1 -27,08

Austria 120,5 -26,03

Czech Rep. 121,1 -21,47

Romania 121,8 -21,32

Sweden 122,8 -32,30

Cyprus 123,5 -27,48

Bulgaria 124,4 -27,51

Slovalia 124,9 -18,21

Poland 125,9 -18,09

Hungary 125,9 -18,77

Luxemburg 126,1 -23,94

Lithuania 127,0 -28,05

Germany 128,9 -23,95

Latvia 128,9 -29,75

Estonia 133,9 -26,27

Higheremissions in the East. Five EU countries

under 110.

High-emission cars are being phased out.

CO2 emissions of new vehicles in the EU, as percentage

► Just 26 per cent of today’s

new vehicles emit more

than 130 g CO2/km – with

the trend clearly

continuing in this direction.

► In 1995 more than 80 per

cent emitted more than

160 g CO2/km.

► Vehicles with emissions

under 95 g CO2/km are

now entering the market.

+

97%

75%

26%

3%

25%

63%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2008 2015

> 130 g 96 g - 130 g <95 g < 120 g

Source: EEA, 2015


Page 15




Diesel- and petrol-powered vehicles are reducing their emissions.CO2 emissions of new vehicles in the EU by engine type, in g of CO2 per km

+17000%16810%

16490%16160%

15660%

14770%

14250%

13760%13370%

12860%12560%

12250%12170%

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Diesel Petrol

Source: EEA, Monitoring CO2 emissions from new passenger cars, 2014

-25.2%-28.4%


Page 16

► Petrol-powered vehicles

are showing great

advancements and are

catching up with diesel

engines.

► But: Diesel engines

dominate more among

larger vehicles, while

petrol engines dominate

among smaller vehicles.

► The advancements among

diesel engines appear

stronger, since diesel

vehicles spend more time

on the road each year.




Summary: CO2 emissions on the road

► The CO2 emissions of road traffic in the EU have been decreasing for years.

► Compared to 1990, the emissions from truck traffic in particular increased

dynamically but have been decreasing again since 2007. Emissions from car

traffic have stagnated since 2004 and have shown a clear decline since 2007.

► The increased distribution of more fuel-efficient new vehicles accounts for the

decline in car emissions.

► The increased use of diesel engines – especially in the case of larger vehicles

– was a key driver in the reduction of emissions.

Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends CO2 emissions on the road Efficiency on the roadTransportation today Efficiency on the road Regulation on the roadCO2 emissions on the road


Transportation sector17

EU: Increased energy efficiency in road traffic

0 250 500 750

2000 2007 2013

-10%

Veränderung

1990 - 2013Veränderung

2007 - 2013

0 100 200 300 400 500

2000 2007 2013

-7%

Lkw

in kWh/1.000tkm

Pkw

in kWh/1.000pkm

-11%-22%

► The use of energy per unit of output has reduced considerably in European road traffic since

2000.

► But: Since 2007, truck traffic in the EU has relinquished a portion of its efficiency gains. Two

new EU standards related to the reduction of pollutants were introduced in this time period,

which likely led to the increased consumption of new vehicles.

► The increased efficiency of cars has accelerated considerably since 2007.

+

Quelle: Odyssee Database, 2016

-1,6%

-4,9%-4,3%

-5,3%


Page 18



Transportation today Regulation on the roadEfficiency on the roadCO2 emissions on the road

EU freight transport between 2000 and 2015 Increases in efficiency are obscured by growth in the quantity of freight transported.


Development of energy consumption by impact, in terawatt hours (TWh)

Overall

impact

Modal shift,

Other

+63.7

-207.1

EfficiencyMore traffic

More efficient vehicles and

routing help to offset

approximately the

increased consumption

resulting from other factors.

Modal shift effects play a

subordinate role with an

additional consumption of

27 TWh.

+


Page 19



Transportation today Regulation on the roadCO2 emissions on the road Efficiency on the road

Car traffic between 2000 and 2014 More efficient vehicles have a growing impact on energy consumption levels.


In terawatt hours (TWh)

Overall

impact

Energy

reduction

measures

Other

+123.3

-291.9

More traffic

As a result of increasing

traffic volumes, energy

consumption in car traffic

has increased significantly

since the year 2000.

But: The dominant impact

came about through more

efficient vehicles.

The total energy

consumption in the year

2014 was on the same

level as in the base year

2000.

+


Page 20




Car traffic between 2000 and 2014 More efficient vehicles have a growing impact on energy consumption levels.


2000–2007 in terawatt hours (TWh)

Energy

reduction

measures

More traffic

+125.5-165.9

Overall

impact

Other

Around the turn of the millennium, additional traffic led to an increase in energy

consumption. This effect has changed course in the last seven years.

During the second half of the reported period, the reduction effect became

dominant against the effect of additional traffic.

+

2007–2014 in terawatt hours (TWh)

-130.1


Page 21




Overall

impact

OtherEnergy

reduction

measures

-126.0

More traffic

Diesel ensures lower emissions from large cars.

New car registrations in GermanyMarket shares by segment and engine type, in %

► Diesel is increasingly becoming the preferred engine for large vehicles that spend the most

time on the road, while petrol engines still dominate the smaller car classes.

► Diesel engines have become more powerful as a result of this trend, and petrol engines

have been catching up in terms of standard fuel consumption.

► Fuel efficiency has in fact improved at essentially the same rate for both engine types.

► Diesel remains a key means for reducing CO2 emissions.

+

Sources: KBA 2014; EEA, Monitoring CO2 emissions from new passenger cars, 2016

Ø vehicle mass in kg

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

Ø CO2 emissions in g

Diesel Petrol

Increased efficiency 2004–2016

Emissions per kg of vehicle weight

Diesel -28.68%

Petrol -28.62%

2%

13%

43%

76%

90%

62%

62%

12%

32%

78%

85%

31%

98%

87%

57%

24%

10%

38%

38%

88%

68%

22%

15%

69%

Mini

Small

Compact

Medium

Upper Med.

Luxury

Off-Road

Sports car

Mini Van

Large Van

Utility

Other

Diesel Petrol


Page 22




Where would Germany be without diesel?

CO2 emissions of newly registered cars in 2013By segment and engine type, in g per km

► Diesel emissions are lower than those of petrol in all vehicle segments.

► Diesel engines dominate the larger classes of vehicles.

► The emissions level of new vehicles would be significantly higher without the use

of diesel engines.

+

Source: Own calculations

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240

Mini

Small

Compact

Medium

Med.-Large

Large

SUV

Sports car

Minivan

Large van

Utility

Other

Diesel

Petrol

How would emission levels compare if a

portion of the diesel engines were replaced

by petrol engines?CO2 emissions in g per km

135,7

142,6

127,4

1 2 3


Page 23




2

4

6

8

10

12

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175

1st gear 2nd gear 3rd gear 4th gear 5th gear 6th gear

Speed in km/h

Consumption

in l/100km

The driver determines the fuel consumption.

► Fuel saving training courses: Following the course, participants used approximately

20 per cent less fuel than before. In Germany alone, the reduction potential from

fuel-efficient driving is estimated at 12 million tonnes of CO2.

► Gear shifting support is particularly effective in urban traffic: when driving at a speed

of 50 km per hour, the test vehicle consumes 1.2 litres less in fifth gear than in third.

+

Source: VW

Shifting gears early saves fuel: the fuel consumption curve of a Golf 1.4 TFSI (90 kW) in relation to its speed


Page 24




Extra-long trucks: 15 per cent increase in efficiency, as proven in a road test*

► Extra-long trucks can handle high-volume transports much more efficiently than conventional trucks.

► The efficiency margin remains at a good 15 per cent when the load volume is used to full capacity.

► Heavy freight is more efficiently transported by regular trucks.

► Extra-long trucks have a higher consumption than conventional trucks. Hence, they only pay off

when the carrier needs to transport more freight than today’s conventional trucks can accommodate.

+

* Results from field tests by the federal government; the transported goods had a density of 0.72 kg/dm3 (paper: 0.8 kg/dm3)

Source: BMVI

Extra-long trucks Conventional trucks

Gross vehicle weight: 40t

Load volume: 155 m3

Tested route: 8,900 km

Ø fuel consumption: 33.9 l/100 km

Gross vehicle weight : 36t

Load volume: 100 m3

Tested route: 10,700 km

Ø fuel consumption: 24.1 l/100 km

2,81

0,21

3,37

0,24

Load capacity in l/100 tkm Volume in l/100 m3km

Transport efficiency

+15%


Page 25




Summary: Efficiency on the road

► More fuel efficient vehicles have led to a considerable increase in the overall

efficiency of road traffic since the year 2000.

► Increased traffic volumes have long prevented the more efficient vehicle

technology from actually lowering the overall level of emissions.

► Diesel engines were a major driver of the increasing efficiency. They have led

to considerably lower emissions, particularly in the case of larger vehicles.

► Low-cost possibilities for increasing efficiency are being wasted. Fuel saving

training courses can reduce consumption by 20 per cent.

► The licensing of larger trucks could also save a lot of fuel.





26

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

130

161

The most stringent CO2 target values for new vehicles

* In Gesetzgebungsprozess

Quelle: ICCT, 2016

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2000 2001 20022003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200920102011 201220132014

US EU Japan China

205

172

187

157

123119

169

In g CO2/km, under the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)

*

► The EU emission standard for 2021 is the most stringent standard in the world.

► Even in 2025 it is unlikely that any country on earth will have a more stringent limit values

than the one stipulated by the EU for 2021.

► The limit values being discussed in the EU for the year 2025 would be up to 50 per cent

lower than those in the USA.

+

119

95

105

117

213

151

Actual levels for 2002–2013 Adopted for 2014–2021



Transportation today CO2 emissions on the road Efficiency on the road Regulation on the road


Page 27

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700

CO2 target values for 2021: High demands on the automotive industryIn g CO2/km

► The manufacturers receive specific targets based on the weight of their new vehicles.

► Independent of vehicle weight, manufacturers of large cars have to show greater reductions than high-volume manufacturers.

► In the nine years from 2006 to 2015, a reduction of the average emissions by 30 g CO2/km was required of new

vehicles – from 160 g CO2/km down to 130 g CO2/km.

► Speeding up the pace: In the six years from 2015 to 2021, average emissions must be reduced by 35 g CO2/km – from 130 g

CO2/km down to 95 g CO2/km.

+Average weight of new passenger cars in kg


Page 28

Quellen: EU, EEA 2016




FiatRenault

Toyota

FordVW

Opel Honda

Hyundai

BMWDaimler

EU: Fleet 2006

EU: Targetcurve

2015

EU: Targetcurve

2021

9 Jahre

6 Jahre

Ist-Werte von 2015

Audi

130

95

160

High CO2 emissions mean high payments:

Source: EU Commission DG Transport, Weekly Oil Bulletin 1860

Fuel tax per litre, in euro

0,88

0,86

0,86

0,74

0,74

0,74

0,73

0,71

0,70

0,69

0,66

0,66

0,65

0,65

0,64

0,64

0,61

0,60

0,59

0,59

0,58

0,55

0,53

0,52

0,50

0,49

0,49

0,47

0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0

United Kingdom

Sweden

Italy

France

Finland

Belgium

Ireland

Slovenia

Netherlands

Portugal

Denmark

Greece

Malta

Germany

Cyprus

Croatia

Czech Republic

Hungary

Slovakia

Austria

Estonia

Spain

Poland

Latvia

Lithuania

Bulgaria

Romania

Luxembourg

Diesel

1,04

1,00

0,99

0,95

0,93

0,92

0,91

0,88

0,88

0,87

0,86

0,83

0,80

0,79

0,77

0,75

0,69

0,68

0,67

0,66

0,64

0,63

0,63

0,62

0,62

0,59

0,53

0,52

0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2

Netherlands

Italy

Greece

Sweden

Finland

Portugal

Denmark

France

United Kingdom

Germany

Ireland

Belgium

Slovenia

Slovakia

Croatia

Malta

Czech Republic

Austria

Cyprus

Spain

Latvia

Hungary

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Estonia

Poland

Bulgaria

Romania

Petrol


Page 29




CO2 from cars comes at a high cost in the EU.

Sources: EU, UBA, own calculations

► From 2018, full penalty fees will

apply to car manufacturers who do

not reach their specific target.

► If a car drives 200,000 km, a

reduction by 1g/km corresponds to

an emissions reduction of

200 kg over the life of the vehicle.

► Based on this assumption, the

manufacturer will pay a penalty of

475 euros per tonne of CO2.

► This cost is considerably higher

than what others have to pay.

+

A penalty of 95 euros will apply for each gram

that exceeds the target, for each vehicle sold.

This corresponds to approximately 475 euros

per tonne of CO2.

CO2 prices, in euros per tonne

475

205

145

80

30

5Carbon credits

(as at March 2016)

Carbon credits

(target for 2020)

Damage costs 2010

(UBA)

Damage costs 2030

(UBA)

Petrol taxation

(EU average)

Emission standard

for cars


Page 30




The potential for further reduction exists but is becoming harder to achieve.

Source: IKA Aachen

1 HCCI

2 Thermoelectric generator

3 Variable compression

4Lightweight construction

(comprehensive)

5 Improved EGR

6 Direct injection w/ stratified charge

7 Cylinder deactivation

8 Full hybrid

9 Micro-hybrid

10 Dual clutch transmissions

11 Homogeneous direct injection

12 Fully variable valve control system

► Due to the technologies needed for boosting efficiency, new vehicles will cost approximately 2,700 euros

more in 2020.

► This expense will be offset, however, by savings resulting from lower fuel consumption. These savings are

spread across the entire life of the vehicle (17 years on average); so, the first customer will only enjoy part of

this benefit but will carry the full cost of the new technologies when purchasing the vehicle.

+

Petrol engines (compact class) Diesel engines (compact class)

CO2 reduction potential in % CO2 reduction potential in %

Technology costs in € Technology costs in €

Research Pre-development Series development Series

1

2

46

8

910

110

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 1.000 2.000 3.000

23

4

57

8

910

120

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 1.000 2.000 3.000


Page 31




Volume manufacturers

CO2 reduction: More expensive in the future

► The simple and inexpensive options are seized first, making it difficult to accelerate the rate

of CO2 reduction.

► The consumption cannot be reduced arbitrarily. It will not be possible to achieve the limit

values without making the switch to electric engines; manufacturers of large cars need to

make the switch right now.

+

Source: BMW

Electriccars

Full hybrids

Mild hybrids Plug-in

hybrids

Shift point display

Aerodynamics,roll resistor

Optimised trans-mission Brake

forcerecovery

Intelligenthelpsystems

Start/Stopfeature

High-precisioninjectionsystems

Heatmanage-ment

CO2 reduction per euro of manufacturing costs

Dieselengines

Premium manufacturers

130 g CO2/km 95 g CO2/km

95 g CO2/km130 g CO2/km


Page 32




9%

7%

24%

34%

26%

No additional costs Up to 500 €

501–1,000 € 1,001–2,000 €

More than 2,000 €

13%

41%

35%

8%

2% 1%

< 3 litres 3–5 litres

5.1–7 litres 7.1–9 litres

> 9 litres Electric engine

Energy saving popular*Question: What is the fuel economy you

will expect in your new car as an

average range of litres per 100 km?

But: The market run-up is slowing down.

* Survey of 1,500 people interested in buying a new vehicle in Europe’s three largest markets

Source: PwC

E-cars: Only if they do not cost more*Question: How much would you be prepared to pay for a hybrid drive /

electric drive?

Hybrids

46%

12%

15%

23%

Electric cars


Page 33




Summary: Regulation on the road

► The EU has waived the world’s most stringent CO2 emission levels for cars. In

2021, the limit values will be one-third lower than those of the USA.

► CO2 emissions from road traffic are priced higher by the EU than emissions from

other sources.

► The “low-hanging fruits” have already been picked – and it will become more

expensive in the future.

► The manufacturers of large vehicles, in particular, have to gradually focus on the

switch to electric powertrains. But: Today, the market run-up for electric cars and

plug-in hybrids is slowing down. And no one knows how the market for these

vehicles will develop in the future.





34

Documents

Megatrends » Political framework · Diesel motors are primarily used in vehicles that are expected to have high mileage. + New car registrations in the EU 28 in 2016 Existing vehicle