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Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019

Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

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Page 1: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019

Page 2: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

2

CONTENTS

2

Key messages

Operational reviewOur investment case

Outlook

01

03

04

02

Page 3: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

3

1.1 KEY MESSAGES | RESPONDING TO A CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT

3

SA Cement impacted by

Environment remains challenging in

Portfolio effect

• South Africa

• Zimbabwe

• DRC

Resilient RoA

performance continues

to offset muted

SA performance

• Muted growth

• Imports

• Blenders

Zimbabwe

• Liquidity challenges

• Change in monetary policy

DRC Rwanda

• Muted growth

• Overcapacity

• Focus on maximising EBITDA

• Demand remains robust

• Performance benefiting from increased output

Group balance sheet PPC response

PPC executing on

strategic priorities in

response to a

challenging market

• Continually optimising capital structureand group liquidity

• Restructuring debt in the DRC

Page 4: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

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1.2 KEY MESSAGES | UPDATE ON OUR RESPONSE TO KEY CHALLENGES

4

SA Cement

Challenges

• Muted growth - consumer and construction industry under pressure

• Increased imports

• Blenders eroding pricing

Response

• Lobbying government to impose tariffs on cement imports

• New products launch received well by the market

• Implemented price increases of 8% – 12% in certain regions

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Durban Cape Town Port Elizabeth East London Richards Bay Other

Total Imports (tonnes)

• Total cement imports increased by 80% for January 2018 -November 2018

• Western Cape imports increased by 48% to ~209t YoY

• The bulk of the imports have come from China, Vietnam and Pakistan

• The major ports of entry have been Durban and PE and to a lesser extent Cape Town

Page 5: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

5

Challenges

• Liquidity challenges

• Change in monetary policy

Zimbabwe

1.3 KEY MESSAGES | UPDATE ON OUR RESPONSE TO KEY CHALLENGES

5

• Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) released on 1 October 2018, and 20th February 2019

• The RTGS $ will become the functional currency in Zimbabwe, initial rate being 2.5 RTGS $:1 US$ and 3.5 bond notes : 1 US$

• A full impact assessment underway on reporting

• Cash balance reduced to US$60m by a debt repayment at the end of February 2019;

• The initial rate of 2.5 RTGS $:1 US$ applies only to US$30m – US$35m;

• US$16m in dividends and US$5m rights offer proceeds, qualifies as legacy debt due to PPC RSA maintained at a 1:1 ratio (registered with the Reserve Bank)

Response

• Optimise US$ EBITDA

• Maximise production efficiencies and product optimisation

• Reduce forex denominated exposure

• Export strategy

• Clinker imports from South Africa

• Endeavour to maintain margins in the guided range of 30% - 35%

Page 6: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

6

1.4 KEY MESSAGES | UPDATE ON OUR RESPONSE TO KEY CHALLENGES

6

Challenges • Muted demand due to lack of infrastructure

development

• Overcapacity

• Pricing regulation on margin cap

Response• Continuous engagement with government

• Entrenching route to market strategies

• Aligned fixed costs to operational ramp-up

• Maximising EBITDA to meet debt obligations

• Achieving market share and pricing stability

Debt obligation• Long term debt outstanding US$152m as at

February 2019

• 1st repayment in January 2020

• Progressing on re-structuring of DRC debt

• Interest payments for FY19 within previous guidance

Challenges • Significant economic growth (approx. 7%)

• Limited limestone reserve

• Manage stakeholder expectation

• On the 9 March 2019, The Rwandan government announced a potential disposal of their shareholding in Cimerwa

• PPC owns 51% of Cimerwa, Rwanda Social Security Board, 20.2%, AgaciroDevelopment Fund 16.6%, Rwanda Investment Group 11.5% and SonarwaHolding Ltd 0.7%

Response• Continuous engagement with government as a key stakeholder

• Optimal product quality, operational efficiency optimisation and extending limestone reserve

• Capital investments to increase output to meet consumer demand

• The Cimerwa plant is expected to achieve > 80%capacity utilisation

• Full capacity utilisation expected 1st quarter 2020 calendar year

• Pricing has been maintained despite capital commitments

• The company remains committed to local skills development

DRC Rwanda

Page 7: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

7

1.5 PROGRESS ON FOH-FOUR STRATEGIC PILLARS OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS

✓ Restructured RSA debt and smoothed liquidity profile

✓ Restructured funding agreements in Rwanda

✓ Implemented capital allocation priorities framework

✓ Maintained positive free cashflow

✓ Realised R22/tonne profit contribution in SA cement

✓ Completed 1st phase of Cimerwa debottlenecking

✓ Focused on preserving US$ in Zimbabwe

✓ Increased organic growth in Zimbabwe

✓ Completed 1st phase of head office restructuring

✓ Strengthened key leadership with focused executive committee

✓ Implemented employee value proposition

✓ Rolled out internal branding in SA businesses

✓ Rebranded SURERANGE and launched new products in SA

✓ Focused on our brand image –“Strength Beyond”

✓ Focused our value added technical support in particular SMME’s

✓ Entrench route to market strategies in the DRC & Rwanda

7

Financial Operational Human Capital Customers

Page 8: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

2. OUR INVESTMENT CASE

Page 9: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

9

2.1 OUR LONG TERM INVESTMENT CASE…

9

Our peopleExperienced management team

Portfolio effectRoA delivering good results

9

Market leader Leadership position in 80% of markets we operate in

SSA FootprintWell developed portfolio in growing markets

Operational strengthOptimal sourcing and

vertical integration ability

Asset baseMajority new plants, end of capex cycle

6

2

3

45

7

… A L I G N S TO O U R “ FO H - FO U R ” S T R AT E G I C P R I O R I T I E S

Our brand Strong well established brand and reputation 1

Page 10: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

10

RoA portfolio of countries is expected to grow faster than the domestic market

GDP growth (real %) Urbanisation %

9,6

7,1

5,5

1,92,3

1,8

7,2 7,4

4,8

2,5

4,3

1,8

Ethiopia Rwanda DRC Zimbabwe Botwana SouthAfrica

Historic 4yr average 4 yr avg (2018E - 2021F)

2.2 SOLID LONG TERM ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS DRIVING DEMAND

Cement consumption per capita (kg)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Ch

ina

Ind

ia

USA

Tu

rkey

Ind

on

esia

Vie

tna

m

Egyp

t

Bra

zil

Ru

ssia

Ira

n

Sou

th A

fric

a

Zim

ba

bw

e

Bo

tsw

an

a

DR

C

Rw

an

da

Eth

iop

ia

D E M A N D I S D R I V E N BY G D P G R O W T H , U R B A N I S AT I O N A N D S TA G E O F E C O N O M I C D E V E LO P M E N T

Source: NKC, BER, February 2019 Source: AfDB statistics 2016 Source: World cement report

Portfolio is exposed to low per capita consumption SSA markets

PPC is exposed to RoA countries with low levels of urbanisation

40

26

49

40

52

40

20

31 32

64

31

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

10

Page 11: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

11

2.3 WELL POSITIONED AS MARKET LEADER

PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW

Capacity (cement) 11.7 mtpa

Cement plants 18 plants

Lime factories 1 factory (1mtpa)

Aggregate quarries 4 quarries (4mtpa)

Readymix plants29 plants (100 000 m3 per month)

Flyash 500 ktpa

Cement capacity replacement value

ZAR 36bn @ USD 230 per annualised tonne

Rwanda650 ktpa

Ethiopia1.4 mtpa

South Africa7.0 mtpa

Zimbabwe1.4 mtpa

4

1

1

DRC1.2 mtpa

Botswana 450 ktpa (milling)

M A R K E T L E A D E R I N AT T R A C T I V E C O U N T R I E S A N D R E G I O N S

1

1

1

11

Page 12: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

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12

DEBT MATURITY PROFILE (RM)

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

RSA RoA

Capital structure Metric

Target capital structure (equity : debt)

70:30 (Intrinsic value)

Target Group Grossdebt/EBITDA

3.0x – 3.5x

Target RSA Gross debt/EBITDA

2.5x – 2.8x

2.4 MATURITY PROFILE

• RSA debt maturity profile between three and four years

• Reduced interest rates on RSA debt

• Effective interest rate 9.5% at September 2018

• Focus on restructuring the DRC debt to align with ramp-up

Page 13: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

3.1 OPERATIONAL REVIEW –Nine months to December 2018

Page 14: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

3.2 SOUTHERN AFRICA

Page 15: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

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90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-1

7

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Jun

-18

Jul-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (R/TONNE)

3.2.1 REALISING EFFECTIVE SELLING PRICE INCREASES

15

Increased selling prices in

Jan 2019

Page 16: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

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3.2.2 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE l IMPORTS AND BLENDERS IMPACTING DEMAND AND PRICING

16

Imports1.0mtpa

Growing Blender

Capacity

TOTAL SA CAPACITY (Est.) DEMAND (Est.)

18MTPA 14MTPA

• Cement imports ~ 1.0MTPA

• Blender market – Est. 1.6MTPA

• Erosion of quality

• Detraction from market related pricing

• Value destruction for stakeholders

• Lobbying government to impose tariffs on cement imports

• Driving efficiencies through cost leadership and optimal sourcing

• Continued innovation in alternative building technologies

• Enhanced product portfolio and route to market strategy implementation

• Industry requires restructuring

1. MARKET FACTORS

2. PPC RESPONSE

Page 17: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

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3.2.3 SA CEMENT OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

INLANDCEMENT & MATERIALS

COASTALCEMENT & MATERIALS

BOTSCEMENT & MATERIALS

Gauteng cement

30%- 40% (est.) of Inland

demand

Coastal cement is

15%-20%(est.) of

RSAdemand

Cement Market

• Overall demand remains under pressure due to

• Weak consumer demand (Independent House Builders)

• Construction industry in distress

• Marginal improvement in the Western Cape

• Gauteng remains competitive (blender activity)

• PPC exposed more to private sector investment

Volumes • Estimate that the domestic industry declined by 4.0% - 5.0%

• PPC Southern Africa (including Botswana) down 2.0%-3.0%

• SURERANGE making a positive impact

Pricing

• Southern Africa up 2.0%

• Inland pricing up 3.0%

• Implemented price increase of 8% – 12% in certain regions on 15 January 2019

Costs

• Variable cost of sales inline with inflation

• Fixed cost of sales higher due to:

• SK9 depreciation, Safika integration costs, timing of maintenance activities

• Outbound logistics higher due to fuel increases

17

Page 18: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

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3.2.4 NEW SURE RANGE OF PRODUCTS MAKING AN IMPACT

18

Cement for road stabilisation

Premium multipurpose cement for general building

& civil

Masonry cement designed for plaster

& mortar

Early strength cement designed for

concrete, mortar, plaster & bricks

High early strength cement designed for

precast products

Superior high strength specialist

cement

F I T FO R P U R P O S E R A N G E O F C E M E N T P R O D U C T S TO C AT E R TO A L L C U S TO M E R N E E D S

Page 19: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

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3.2.5 SA CEMENT OUTLOOK l NAVIGATING THROUGH A CHALLENGING OPERATING CLIMATE

19

The South African landscape remains

economically challenging

Focus on executing and realising R70/tonne

savings benefits

Real pricing growth to achieve returns in excess of cost of

capital, growing EBITDA margin, and driving operational

efficiencies

The business will continue to defend and maintain its

leading position and competitive advantage

Muted GDP growth projected

over the next 12 months

Page 20: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

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3.2.6 CARBON TAX UPDATE

20

OVERVIEW • 2019 budget speech indicated that the carbon tax will be implemented from 1 June 2019

• The current tax structuring proposes a tax of between R6 and R120/tonne applied to CO2 emissions

• PPC qualifies for the certain allowances which are likely to reduce the carbon tax

• PPC anticipates that the impact of carbon tax is likely to be in the region of ~ R100 – R120m for cement and lime per annum

• PPC is continually looking to reduce its carbon emissions

• Mega plant strategy – use of efficient kilns

• SK9 – modern efficient technology

• Use of alternative fuels – replacement of coal

ACCOUNTING IMPACT • Carbon tax will be treated as an excise tax which is an indirect tax

• Awaiting regulations on exact mechanism for levying this tax

PPC Impact

• Carbon tax is likely to be passed on to the consumer

1

23

Page 21: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

3.3 MATERIALS

Page 22: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

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3.3.1 MATERIALS | LIME, AGGREGATES, READYMIX & FLYASH

22

M AT E R I A L S P R O T E C T E D ~ R 5 0 m I N S A C E M E N T E B I T D A T H R O U G H C H A N N E L M A N A G E M E N T

Aggregates 1. Lack of infrastructure projects impacting demand

2. Reduced volumes , due to lower sales to readymix and CPM segments

Readymix and Ash

1. Readymix market remained competitive, pricing and volumes under pressure

2. Flyash business continues to grow

Materials 1. Aggregates and readymix remain important channels to market

2. Materials protected ~ R50m in SA cement EBITDA through channel management in 1H19

Lime

1. Significant exposure to the domestic steel industry which is experiencing lower demand

2. Solid progress made in other environmental applications e.g. acid mine drainage

3. Consideration to dispose lime as an asset

Page 23: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

3.4 REST OF AFRICA

Page 24: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

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3.4.1 OPERATIONAL OVERVIEW | REST OF AFRICA

24

Zimbabwe

• Volumes grew by low single digits compared to the prior year for the same period

• Operational challenges experienced in the third quarter

• Pricing has been aligned with local inflationary increases

Rwanda

• Debottlenecking of the plant has been successful

• Cimerwa has improved its production output inline with expectations

• Increased capacity utilisation coupled with stable pricing has resulted in the 2nd half EBITDA performance to date exceeding that of the 1st half of the financial year

• Focus on stakeholder engagement

DRC

• Route to market strategies benefiting volumes

• Meeting our capacity market share

• Business has been rightsized

• Other cost saving initiatives are progressing well

Ethiopia

• Increased market share toward its capacity market share of 10%, utilisation above 40% for the last 12 months

• Political instability and plant inefficiencies detracted from the performance

• Management prioritizing plant optimisation and route to market strategies

• PPC endeavours to have a controlling stake in the business

• Restructuring capital structure

C O N T I N U E T O G A I N M A R K E T S H A R E I N R E G I O N S W H E R E W E O P E R AT E

Page 25: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

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Rwanda

Zimbabwe

DRC

Ethiopia

Political stability post elections in the DRC in December 2018

GDP growth is forecast to grow by a 4 year average of 4.8% supported by mining demand

Focus on growing demand and capacity utilisation

In Ethiopia, the political landscape is expected to improve, with strong projected growth in GDP of 7 - 8%

Construction and retail & wholesale trade are growing at >10%

GDP growth forecast to improve average 2.5% over 4 years PPC Zimbabwe is well positioned to benefit from improved

growth prospects Focus on optimising US$ EBITDA and preserving cash

Rwandan GDP revised upward, average 7.4% over the next 4 years, supported by the agriculture sector

Focus on increasing demand and plant optimisation

3.4.2 REST OF AFRICA CEMENT LONGER TERM OUTLOOK

25

F O C U S O N E M B E D D I N G B U S I N E S S P L A N S T O A C H I E V E R o A T A R G E T F O R E B I T D A C O N T R I B U T I O N > 4 0 %

Page 26: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

4. OUTLOOK

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27

4.1 OUTLOOK | CONTINUE WITH STRATEGIC PRIORTIES

WE CONTINUE TO EXECUTE ON OUR FOH-FOUR STRATEGIC PRIORTITES TO REALISE VALUE

• Market stability

• Drive all components of the profitability equation

• Increased profitability initiative target to R70/tonne

• Embed simplified and focused management structure

• Margin management

• Solid demand in Rwanda

• Continue to optimise Rwanda and Ethiopia plants to full potential

• Challenging environment in DRC expected to continue

• Restructure capital structure in RoA businesses

• EBITDA growth

• Continue to focus on optimised capital structure and free cashflow

• Continue to focus on capital allocation priorities

• Evaluate options to re-patriate funds in Zimbabwe

• Realise maximum value from the RoA portfolio

• Consider divesting non-core assets

• Consolidate group performance

27

• Slower than expected recovery in economic growth

• The industry is not achieving its cost of capital

• To sustain the industry through the cycle real selling price increases is imperative

• Continue to lobby government to impose tariffs on cement imports

SA RoA GROUPSA Cement Industry

Page 28: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

QUESTIONS

Page 29: Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019 Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019. 2 CONTENTS 2 Key messages Operational review Our investment case Outlook 01 03 04 02. 3 1.1

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INVESTOR CONTACTS

Anashrin PillayInvestor Relations

[email protected]

+27 11 386 9000

www.ppc.co.za

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This document including, without limitation, those statements concerning the demand outlook, PPC’s expansion projects and its capital resources and expenditure, contains certain forward-looking statements and views. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty and although PPC believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to be correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of, among other factors, changes in economic and market conditions, success of business and operating initiatives, changes in the regulatory environment, other government action and business and operational risk management.

Whilst PPC takes reasonable care to ensure the accuracy of the information presented, PPC accepts no responsibility for any damages, be they consequential, indirect, special or incidental, whether foreseeable or unforeseeable, based on claims arising out of misrepresentation or negligence arising in connection with a forward-looking statement. This document is not intended to contain any profit forecasts or profit estimates, and the information published in this document is unaudited.

DISCLAIMER

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