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Merrill Lynch Sun City Conference March 2019
2
CONTENTS
2
Key messages
Operational reviewOur investment case
Outlook
01
03
04
02
3
1.1 KEY MESSAGES | RESPONDING TO A CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT
3
SA Cement impacted by
Environment remains challenging in
Portfolio effect
• South Africa
• Zimbabwe
• DRC
Resilient RoA
performance continues
to offset muted
SA performance
• Muted growth
• Imports
• Blenders
Zimbabwe
• Liquidity challenges
• Change in monetary policy
DRC Rwanda
• Muted growth
• Overcapacity
• Focus on maximising EBITDA
• Demand remains robust
• Performance benefiting from increased output
Group balance sheet PPC response
PPC executing on
strategic priorities in
response to a
challenging market
• Continually optimising capital structureand group liquidity
• Restructuring debt in the DRC
4
1.2 KEY MESSAGES | UPDATE ON OUR RESPONSE TO KEY CHALLENGES
4
SA Cement
Challenges
• Muted growth - consumer and construction industry under pressure
• Increased imports
• Blenders eroding pricing
Response
• Lobbying government to impose tariffs on cement imports
• New products launch received well by the market
• Implemented price increases of 8% – 12% in certain regions
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Durban Cape Town Port Elizabeth East London Richards Bay Other
Total Imports (tonnes)
• Total cement imports increased by 80% for January 2018 -November 2018
• Western Cape imports increased by 48% to ~209t YoY
• The bulk of the imports have come from China, Vietnam and Pakistan
• The major ports of entry have been Durban and PE and to a lesser extent Cape Town
5
Challenges
• Liquidity challenges
• Change in monetary policy
Zimbabwe
1.3 KEY MESSAGES | UPDATE ON OUR RESPONSE TO KEY CHALLENGES
5
• Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) released on 1 October 2018, and 20th February 2019
• The RTGS $ will become the functional currency in Zimbabwe, initial rate being 2.5 RTGS $:1 US$ and 3.5 bond notes : 1 US$
• A full impact assessment underway on reporting
• Cash balance reduced to US$60m by a debt repayment at the end of February 2019;
• The initial rate of 2.5 RTGS $:1 US$ applies only to US$30m – US$35m;
• US$16m in dividends and US$5m rights offer proceeds, qualifies as legacy debt due to PPC RSA maintained at a 1:1 ratio (registered with the Reserve Bank)
Response
• Optimise US$ EBITDA
• Maximise production efficiencies and product optimisation
• Reduce forex denominated exposure
• Export strategy
• Clinker imports from South Africa
• Endeavour to maintain margins in the guided range of 30% - 35%
6
1.4 KEY MESSAGES | UPDATE ON OUR RESPONSE TO KEY CHALLENGES
6
Challenges • Muted demand due to lack of infrastructure
development
• Overcapacity
• Pricing regulation on margin cap
Response• Continuous engagement with government
• Entrenching route to market strategies
• Aligned fixed costs to operational ramp-up
• Maximising EBITDA to meet debt obligations
• Achieving market share and pricing stability
Debt obligation• Long term debt outstanding US$152m as at
February 2019
• 1st repayment in January 2020
• Progressing on re-structuring of DRC debt
• Interest payments for FY19 within previous guidance
Challenges • Significant economic growth (approx. 7%)
• Limited limestone reserve
• Manage stakeholder expectation
• On the 9 March 2019, The Rwandan government announced a potential disposal of their shareholding in Cimerwa
• PPC owns 51% of Cimerwa, Rwanda Social Security Board, 20.2%, AgaciroDevelopment Fund 16.6%, Rwanda Investment Group 11.5% and SonarwaHolding Ltd 0.7%
Response• Continuous engagement with government as a key stakeholder
• Optimal product quality, operational efficiency optimisation and extending limestone reserve
• Capital investments to increase output to meet consumer demand
• The Cimerwa plant is expected to achieve > 80%capacity utilisation
• Full capacity utilisation expected 1st quarter 2020 calendar year
• Pricing has been maintained despite capital commitments
• The company remains committed to local skills development
DRC Rwanda
7
1.5 PROGRESS ON FOH-FOUR STRATEGIC PILLARS OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS
✓ Restructured RSA debt and smoothed liquidity profile
✓ Restructured funding agreements in Rwanda
✓ Implemented capital allocation priorities framework
✓ Maintained positive free cashflow
✓ Realised R22/tonne profit contribution in SA cement
✓ Completed 1st phase of Cimerwa debottlenecking
✓ Focused on preserving US$ in Zimbabwe
✓ Increased organic growth in Zimbabwe
✓ Completed 1st phase of head office restructuring
✓ Strengthened key leadership with focused executive committee
✓ Implemented employee value proposition
✓ Rolled out internal branding in SA businesses
✓ Rebranded SURERANGE and launched new products in SA
✓ Focused on our brand image –“Strength Beyond”
✓ Focused our value added technical support in particular SMME’s
✓ Entrench route to market strategies in the DRC & Rwanda
7
Financial Operational Human Capital Customers
2. OUR INVESTMENT CASE
9
2.1 OUR LONG TERM INVESTMENT CASE…
9
Our peopleExperienced management team
Portfolio effectRoA delivering good results
9
Market leader Leadership position in 80% of markets we operate in
SSA FootprintWell developed portfolio in growing markets
Operational strengthOptimal sourcing and
vertical integration ability
Asset baseMajority new plants, end of capex cycle
6
2
3
45
7
… A L I G N S TO O U R “ FO H - FO U R ” S T R AT E G I C P R I O R I T I E S
Our brand Strong well established brand and reputation 1
10
RoA portfolio of countries is expected to grow faster than the domestic market
GDP growth (real %) Urbanisation %
9,6
7,1
5,5
1,92,3
1,8
7,2 7,4
4,8
2,5
4,3
1,8
Ethiopia Rwanda DRC Zimbabwe Botwana SouthAfrica
Historic 4yr average 4 yr avg (2018E - 2021F)
2.2 SOLID LONG TERM ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS DRIVING DEMAND
Cement consumption per capita (kg)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
USA
Tu
rkey
Ind
on
esia
Vie
tna
m
Egyp
t
Bra
zil
Ru
ssia
Ira
n
Sou
th A
fric
a
Zim
ba
bw
e
Bo
tsw
an
a
DR
C
Rw
an
da
Eth
iop
ia
D E M A N D I S D R I V E N BY G D P G R O W T H , U R B A N I S AT I O N A N D S TA G E O F E C O N O M I C D E V E LO P M E N T
Source: NKC, BER, February 2019 Source: AfDB statistics 2016 Source: World cement report
Portfolio is exposed to low per capita consumption SSA markets
PPC is exposed to RoA countries with low levels of urbanisation
40
26
49
40
52
40
20
31 32
64
31
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
10
11
2.3 WELL POSITIONED AS MARKET LEADER
PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW
Capacity (cement) 11.7 mtpa
Cement plants 18 plants
Lime factories 1 factory (1mtpa)
Aggregate quarries 4 quarries (4mtpa)
Readymix plants29 plants (100 000 m3 per month)
Flyash 500 ktpa
Cement capacity replacement value
ZAR 36bn @ USD 230 per annualised tonne
Rwanda650 ktpa
Ethiopia1.4 mtpa
South Africa7.0 mtpa
Zimbabwe1.4 mtpa
4
1
1
DRC1.2 mtpa
Botswana 450 ktpa (milling)
M A R K E T L E A D E R I N AT T R A C T I V E C O U N T R I E S A N D R E G I O N S
1
1
1
11
12
12
DEBT MATURITY PROFILE (RM)
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
RSA RoA
Capital structure Metric
Target capital structure (equity : debt)
70:30 (Intrinsic value)
Target Group Grossdebt/EBITDA
3.0x – 3.5x
Target RSA Gross debt/EBITDA
2.5x – 2.8x
2.4 MATURITY PROFILE
• RSA debt maturity profile between three and four years
• Reduced interest rates on RSA debt
• Effective interest rate 9.5% at September 2018
• Focus on restructuring the DRC debt to align with ramp-up
3.1 OPERATIONAL REVIEW –Nine months to December 2018
3.2 SOUTHERN AFRICA
15
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Ma
r-1
7
Ap
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Jun
-17
Jul-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Ma
r-1
8
Ap
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Jun
-18
Jul-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (R/TONNE)
3.2.1 REALISING EFFECTIVE SELLING PRICE INCREASES
15
Increased selling prices in
Jan 2019
16
3.2.2 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE l IMPORTS AND BLENDERS IMPACTING DEMAND AND PRICING
16
Imports1.0mtpa
Growing Blender
Capacity
TOTAL SA CAPACITY (Est.) DEMAND (Est.)
18MTPA 14MTPA
• Cement imports ~ 1.0MTPA
• Blender market – Est. 1.6MTPA
• Erosion of quality
• Detraction from market related pricing
• Value destruction for stakeholders
• Lobbying government to impose tariffs on cement imports
• Driving efficiencies through cost leadership and optimal sourcing
• Continued innovation in alternative building technologies
• Enhanced product portfolio and route to market strategy implementation
• Industry requires restructuring
1. MARKET FACTORS
2. PPC RESPONSE
17
3.2.3 SA CEMENT OPERATING ENVIRONMENT
INLANDCEMENT & MATERIALS
COASTALCEMENT & MATERIALS
BOTSCEMENT & MATERIALS
Gauteng cement
30%- 40% (est.) of Inland
demand
Coastal cement is
15%-20%(est.) of
RSAdemand
Cement Market
• Overall demand remains under pressure due to
• Weak consumer demand (Independent House Builders)
• Construction industry in distress
• Marginal improvement in the Western Cape
• Gauteng remains competitive (blender activity)
• PPC exposed more to private sector investment
Volumes • Estimate that the domestic industry declined by 4.0% - 5.0%
• PPC Southern Africa (including Botswana) down 2.0%-3.0%
• SURERANGE making a positive impact
Pricing
• Southern Africa up 2.0%
• Inland pricing up 3.0%
• Implemented price increase of 8% – 12% in certain regions on 15 January 2019
Costs
• Variable cost of sales inline with inflation
• Fixed cost of sales higher due to:
• SK9 depreciation, Safika integration costs, timing of maintenance activities
• Outbound logistics higher due to fuel increases
17
18
3.2.4 NEW SURE RANGE OF PRODUCTS MAKING AN IMPACT
18
Cement for road stabilisation
Premium multipurpose cement for general building
& civil
Masonry cement designed for plaster
& mortar
Early strength cement designed for
concrete, mortar, plaster & bricks
High early strength cement designed for
precast products
Superior high strength specialist
cement
F I T FO R P U R P O S E R A N G E O F C E M E N T P R O D U C T S TO C AT E R TO A L L C U S TO M E R N E E D S
19
3.2.5 SA CEMENT OUTLOOK l NAVIGATING THROUGH A CHALLENGING OPERATING CLIMATE
19
The South African landscape remains
economically challenging
Focus on executing and realising R70/tonne
savings benefits
Real pricing growth to achieve returns in excess of cost of
capital, growing EBITDA margin, and driving operational
efficiencies
The business will continue to defend and maintain its
leading position and competitive advantage
Muted GDP growth projected
over the next 12 months
20
3.2.6 CARBON TAX UPDATE
20
OVERVIEW • 2019 budget speech indicated that the carbon tax will be implemented from 1 June 2019
• The current tax structuring proposes a tax of between R6 and R120/tonne applied to CO2 emissions
• PPC qualifies for the certain allowances which are likely to reduce the carbon tax
• PPC anticipates that the impact of carbon tax is likely to be in the region of ~ R100 – R120m for cement and lime per annum
• PPC is continually looking to reduce its carbon emissions
• Mega plant strategy – use of efficient kilns
• SK9 – modern efficient technology
• Use of alternative fuels – replacement of coal
ACCOUNTING IMPACT • Carbon tax will be treated as an excise tax which is an indirect tax
• Awaiting regulations on exact mechanism for levying this tax
PPC Impact
• Carbon tax is likely to be passed on to the consumer
1
23
3.3 MATERIALS
22
3.3.1 MATERIALS | LIME, AGGREGATES, READYMIX & FLYASH
22
M AT E R I A L S P R O T E C T E D ~ R 5 0 m I N S A C E M E N T E B I T D A T H R O U G H C H A N N E L M A N A G E M E N T
Aggregates 1. Lack of infrastructure projects impacting demand
2. Reduced volumes , due to lower sales to readymix and CPM segments
Readymix and Ash
1. Readymix market remained competitive, pricing and volumes under pressure
2. Flyash business continues to grow
Materials 1. Aggregates and readymix remain important channels to market
2. Materials protected ~ R50m in SA cement EBITDA through channel management in 1H19
Lime
1. Significant exposure to the domestic steel industry which is experiencing lower demand
2. Solid progress made in other environmental applications e.g. acid mine drainage
3. Consideration to dispose lime as an asset
3.4 REST OF AFRICA
24
3.4.1 OPERATIONAL OVERVIEW | REST OF AFRICA
24
Zimbabwe
• Volumes grew by low single digits compared to the prior year for the same period
• Operational challenges experienced in the third quarter
• Pricing has been aligned with local inflationary increases
Rwanda
• Debottlenecking of the plant has been successful
• Cimerwa has improved its production output inline with expectations
• Increased capacity utilisation coupled with stable pricing has resulted in the 2nd half EBITDA performance to date exceeding that of the 1st half of the financial year
• Focus on stakeholder engagement
DRC
• Route to market strategies benefiting volumes
• Meeting our capacity market share
• Business has been rightsized
• Other cost saving initiatives are progressing well
Ethiopia
• Increased market share toward its capacity market share of 10%, utilisation above 40% for the last 12 months
• Political instability and plant inefficiencies detracted from the performance
• Management prioritizing plant optimisation and route to market strategies
• PPC endeavours to have a controlling stake in the business
• Restructuring capital structure
C O N T I N U E T O G A I N M A R K E T S H A R E I N R E G I O N S W H E R E W E O P E R AT E
25
Rwanda
Zimbabwe
DRC
Ethiopia
Political stability post elections in the DRC in December 2018
GDP growth is forecast to grow by a 4 year average of 4.8% supported by mining demand
Focus on growing demand and capacity utilisation
In Ethiopia, the political landscape is expected to improve, with strong projected growth in GDP of 7 - 8%
Construction and retail & wholesale trade are growing at >10%
GDP growth forecast to improve average 2.5% over 4 years PPC Zimbabwe is well positioned to benefit from improved
growth prospects Focus on optimising US$ EBITDA and preserving cash
Rwandan GDP revised upward, average 7.4% over the next 4 years, supported by the agriculture sector
Focus on increasing demand and plant optimisation
3.4.2 REST OF AFRICA CEMENT LONGER TERM OUTLOOK
25
F O C U S O N E M B E D D I N G B U S I N E S S P L A N S T O A C H I E V E R o A T A R G E T F O R E B I T D A C O N T R I B U T I O N > 4 0 %
4. OUTLOOK
27
4.1 OUTLOOK | CONTINUE WITH STRATEGIC PRIORTIES
WE CONTINUE TO EXECUTE ON OUR FOH-FOUR STRATEGIC PRIORTITES TO REALISE VALUE
• Market stability
• Drive all components of the profitability equation
• Increased profitability initiative target to R70/tonne
• Embed simplified and focused management structure
• Margin management
• Solid demand in Rwanda
• Continue to optimise Rwanda and Ethiopia plants to full potential
• Challenging environment in DRC expected to continue
• Restructure capital structure in RoA businesses
• EBITDA growth
• Continue to focus on optimised capital structure and free cashflow
• Continue to focus on capital allocation priorities
• Evaluate options to re-patriate funds in Zimbabwe
• Realise maximum value from the RoA portfolio
• Consider divesting non-core assets
• Consolidate group performance
27
• Slower than expected recovery in economic growth
• The industry is not achieving its cost of capital
• To sustain the industry through the cycle real selling price increases is imperative
• Continue to lobby government to impose tariffs on cement imports
SA RoA GROUPSA Cement Industry
QUESTIONS
29
INVESTOR CONTACTS
Anashrin PillayInvestor Relations
+27 11 386 9000
www.ppc.co.za
29
30
This document including, without limitation, those statements concerning the demand outlook, PPC’s expansion projects and its capital resources and expenditure, contains certain forward-looking statements and views. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty and although PPC believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to be correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of, among other factors, changes in economic and market conditions, success of business and operating initiatives, changes in the regulatory environment, other government action and business and operational risk management.
Whilst PPC takes reasonable care to ensure the accuracy of the information presented, PPC accepts no responsibility for any damages, be they consequential, indirect, special or incidental, whether foreseeable or unforeseeable, based on claims arising out of misrepresentation or negligence arising in connection with a forward-looking statement. This document is not intended to contain any profit forecasts or profit estimates, and the information published in this document is unaudited.
DISCLAIMER
30