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Met Briefing, 20140121•Temperatures over us near 184K.•Convection to south of us is approaching, will give significant rain into tomorrow morning.•Coldest tropopause temperatures at or just east of us.•Anticyclone rotates convectively injected air anticyclonically.•Convection enhanced in Western Pacific relative to average. This will continue for next two weeks.•CPT temperatures forecast to become colder than typical, with slow eastward propagation•Convection to south of us is approaching, will give significant rain into tomorrow morning.
Met Briefing, 20140121•Temperatures over us near 184K.•Convection to south of us is approaching, will give significant rain into tomorrow morning.•Coldest tropopause temperatures at or just east of us.•Anticyclone rotates convectively injected air anticyclonically.•Convection enhanced in Western Pacific relative to average. This will continue for next two weeks.•CPT temperatures forecast to become colder than typical, with slow eastward propagation•Convection to south of us is approaching, will give significant rain into tomorrow morning.
Minimum temperature near -90 (183.5K) near 56kft. Seeing more midlevel moisture, largely advected from the south from tropical system headed our way.
Note convection east of Mindanao (TS Ling Ling), and developing convection just to the south. This reaches the tropopause (BT is < -85). West Pac/Maritime Continent is region of enhanced convection at this time.
Long range forecast of convection – forecast an enhancement over our longitudes, but not the usual MJO-like propagation.
Shear line just to the north of us, responsible for showers last night. Tropical system to the south headed our way. 10 AM TODAY.
Prog has significant rain from convective system headed right over us (duh). Models have accelerated the pace in past few runs. (10 PM today)
Some rain expected around landing time for Thursday’s flight as front approaches. Winds SSW at <10knots.
Summary•Temperatures over us near 184K.•Convection to south of us is approaching, will give significant rain into tomorrow morning.•Coldest tropopause temperatures at or just east of us.•Anticyclone rotates convectively injected air anticyclonically.•Convection enhanced in Western Pacific relative to average. Forecast to continue for next two weeks.•CPT temperatures forecast to become colder than typical (5 day forecast period), with slow eastward propagation•Convection to south of us is approaching, will give significant rain into tomorrow morning.•Thursday and Friday should be flyable, possible high wind conditions Saturday with frontal passage.