Founding Members

Prof.DamiánRivasProjectCoordinator

MeteorologicalUncertaintyManagementforTrajectoryBasedOperations—TBO-METTBO-Metworkshop

Salzburg,Austria,3-4May2018

TBO-MetConsortium

ProjectTBO-Met:MeteorologicalUncertaintyManagementforTBOH2020-SESAR-2015-1“Environment&MeteorologyforATM”

TBO-MetWorkshop 2

Outline

1.Projectoverview2.Projectachievements3.Potentialforfollow-up

TBO-MetWorkshop 3

ProjectOverview(1)

ObjectiveTheoverallobjectiveoftheprojectisthreefold(asindicatedintheGrant

Agreement):•  Toadvanceintheunderstandingoftheeffectsofmeteorological

uncertaintyinTBO.•  Todevelopmethodologiestoanalyse,quantifyandmanagetheeffectsof

meteorologicaluncertaintyinTBO.•  Topavetheroadforafutureintegrationofthemanagementof

meteorologicaluncertaintyintotheATMsystem.

TBO-MetWorkshop

ProjectOverview(2)

Focus,SpecificObjectivesandGeneralApproachWefocusontwoparticularproblems,bothatthepre-tacticalandtacticallevels:

•  TrajectoryplanningunderMETuncertainties(trajectoryscale;microscale)•  PredictionofsectordemandunderMETuncertainties

(trafficscale;mesoscale)Hence,therearetwospecificobjectives:

•  Toimprovethepredictabilityofaircrafttrajectorieswhensubjecttoweatheruncertaintykeepingacceptablelevelsofefficiency(trade-offbetweenpredictabilityandefficiency).

•  Toincreasetheaccuracyofthepredictionofsectordemandwhenweatheruncertaintyistakenintoaccount(assessmentofthepredictabilityofthesectordemandwhenthepredictabilityoftheindividualtrajectoriesisimproved).

Thetrajectoryplanningandsectordemandanalysesaremadeusingprobabilisticapproaches(theweatheruncertaintyismodeledprobabilistically).

TBO-MetWorkshop

ProjectOverview(3)

ImpactTheexpectedimpactsofTBO-Metareasfollows:Fromthepointofviewoftheintegrationofmeteorologicalinformationinto

ATMplanning:•  assessmentofhowexistingmeteorologicalproductscanbeusedto

enhancepredictabilityofaircrafttrajectorieswithinTBO;•  assessmentofhowimprovementsoftheexistingmeteorologicalproducts

couldenhancepredictabilityofaircrafttrajectorieswithinTBO.FromthepointofviewoftheoverallefficiencyoftheATMsystem:•  fromtheairlinesperspective,thereductionofcostsandrisks;•  fromtheANSPside,thebetterallocationofresourcesandreducedATC

workload;•  fromtheNetworkManager,thebetteridentificationoftheATFCM

measurestobeapplied(forexample,rerouting,advancingtraffic,orslotallocation).

TBO-MetWorkshop

ProjectOverview(4)

TBO-MetWorkshop 7

MeteoInput

DataProce ssing

Proj ectOutput

Solutio nsEvalua tion

WP3:Surve y

WP5:Sectorde mandanalysis

WP4:Traje ctoryplann ing

WP2:Dataprovi sionandda taprocessin g

WP6:Evalua tionandassessm entofsolutions

WP8:Ethicsreq uirem ents

WP7:Dissemi nation,explo itationandcom muni cation

WP1:Proj ectmanage ment

TBOResear chTopics

ProjectOverview(5)

Input Trajectoryanalysis

Trafficanalysis

Validation

Midterm 100% 100% 100% 100%

Shortterm 100% 100% 100% 100%

WP2 WP4 WP5 WP6

TBO-MetWorkshop

§  3 research topics: •  mid-term trajectory planning considering weather forecast uncertainties •  short-term trajectory prediction under thunderstorm activity •  sector demand analysis considering weather forecast uncertainties

§  8 technical problems

8

§  stakeholders’ survey WP3

TBO-MetWorkshop 9

ProjectOverview(6)

ProjectOverview(7)

RobustAircraftTrajectoryPlanningunderWindUncertaintyusingOptimalControl.D.González-Arribas,ManuelSoler,andManuelSanjurjo.JournalofGuidance,Control,andDynamics,Vol.41(3),2018,pp.673-688.https://doi.org/10.2514/1.G002928

Wind-BasedRobustAircraftRouteOptimizationusingMeteorologicalEnsemblePredictionSystems.D.González-Arribas,ManuelSoler,andManuelSanjurjo.6thSESARInnovationDays(SID),2016.AvailableatOpen-Aire.

RobustOptimalTrajectoryPlanningunderUncertainWindsandConvectiveRisk.DanielGonzález-Arribas,ManuelSoler,JavierGarcía-Heras,ManuelSanjurjo-Rivo,UlrikeGelhardt,JuergenLang,DanielSacher,ThomasHauf,andJuanSimarro.ATM/CNSEIWACConference2017.Inreviewfor“AirTrafficManagementandSystemsIII-Selectedpapersofthe5thENRIinternationalworkshop,2017”,Springer.

Sectordemandanalysisundermeteorologicaluncertainty.AlfonsoValenzuela,AntonioFrancoandDamiánRivas.7thEuropeanConferenceforAeronauticsandSpaceSciences(EUCASS),2017.

EffectsofReducingWind-InducedTrajectoryUncertaintyonSectorDemand.AlfonsoValenzuela,AntonioFranco,DamiánRivas,JavierGarcía-HerasandManuelSoler.7thSESARInnovationDays(SID),2017.

EffectsofWeatherUncertaintyinSectorDemandatTacticalLevel.AlfonsoValenzuela,AntonioFranco,DamiánRivas,DanielSacher,JavierGarcía-HerasandManuelSoler.InternationalSymposiumonSustainableAviation(ISSA),2018.

TBO-MetWorkshop 10

Outline

1.Projectoverview2.Projectachievements3.Potentialforfollow-up

TBO-MetWorkshop 11

Projectachievements(1)

ConclusionsTheresultshaveshownthat

•  thepredictabilityofaircrafttrajectoriescanbeincreased•  thestormavoidancestrategycanbebetteranticipated•  theaccuracyofsectordemandforecastcanbeimproved

hence,basedontheseresults,theoverallconclusionisthat

theATMefficiencycanbeenhancedbyintegratingintotheATMplanningprocesstheavailableinformationabouttheuncertaintyofweatherforecasts.

TBO-MetWorkshop

Projectachievements(2)Specificachievements•  Forthemid-termtrajectoryplanningproblem,theachievementisthecapability

ofgeneratingmorepredictabletrajectoriesconsideringtheuncertaintyofweatherpredictions;theoutputisasetofalternativeroutes,accordingtothedifferenttrade-offs;

•  Forthestormavoidanceproblem,theachievementisthecapabilityofbeingbetterinformedabouttheevolutionofthehazardousconvectiveweatherregions;theoutputnowisanensembleofpossibledeviationtrajectoriesthatavoidthepotentialstormrealisations,leadingtoamoreproactivewayoffacingthunderstorms.

•  Forthesectordemandproblem,theachievementisthecapabilityofimprovingtheaccuracyofthesectordemandforecast;theoutputisaquantitativemeasureoftheuncertaintyofsectordemand,whichcanbeupdatedaccordingtothereleaseofnewforecastsandthemovementoftheaircraft.

TBO-MetWorkshop

Projectachievements(3)

OutcomeandpotentialbenefitsTheoveralloutcomehasbeenthedevelopmentofmethodologiestoquantify

andbetterunderstandtheimpactofwinduncertaintyandconvectiveweatherintrajectoryplanningandsectordemand,bothatmid-termandshort-termlevels.

Thepotentialbenefitsarethefollowing:

•  Reductionofthebuffertimesusedbyairlines•  Better-informeddecisionmaking•  Increaseofdeclaredsectorcapacities•  Betteridentificationofdemand-capacitybalancingmeasures

TBO-MetWorkshop

Projectachievements(4)

TBO-MetWorkshop

TRL-criteriaID Trajectoryplanning Stormavoidance Sectordemand

1 Achieved Achieved Achieved

2 Achieved Partial-NonBlocking Partial-NonBlocking

3 Achieved Achieved Achieved

4 Achieved Achieved Achieved

5 Achieved Partial-NonBlocking Achieved

6 Achieved Achieved Achieved

7 Achieved Achieved Achieved

8 Partial-NonBlocking Partial-NonBlocking Partial-NonBlocking

9 Achieved Partial-NonBlocking Achieved

10 Partial-NonBlocking Partial-NonBlocking Partial-NonBlocking

11 Achieved Achieved Achieved

12 Achieved Achieved Achieved

Maturity

The three research topics show maturity to go from TRL 0 to TRL 1

Outline

1.Projectoverview2.Projectachievements3.Potentialforfollow-up

TBO-MetWorkshop 16

Projectfollow-up(1)

Technicallessonslearned

•  Theneedforenhancedmeteorologicaldata,includingcalibrationofEPSsandimprovedprobabilisticnowcasts

•  Theneedforanimprovedrobusttrajectoryplanner(withhypothesesrelaxation)

•  Theneedforanextendedmethodologyforsectordemandanalysisatmulti-sectorscale

TBO-MetWorkshop

Projectfollow-up(2)

Intrajectoryplanning,thefollowingresearchisneededforthefuture:•  Theinclusionofothersourcesofuncertaintydifferentfromthe

meteorologicalone,e.g.,onaircraftdynamics.•  TheuseofcalibratedEPSobtainedthroughstatisticalprost-processing

techniques,forinstanceEnsembleModelOutputStatistics.•  Theenrichmentofaircraftperformancemodelling,e.g.,considering

BADA4,whichaccountsforcompressibilityeffects.•  Theconsiderationofstructuredairspacesas,forexample,FreeRouting

Airspace.•  Theconsiderationofthree-dimensionalflights,includingthusvariable

barometricaltitude.Thiswouldallowthecomputationofcompleteflights.

•  Theconsiderationofmeteorologicalforecaststhatevolveovertime,e.g.,toconsideraseriesofsnapshotsoftheforecastedstatusoftheatmosphereforthewholedurationoftheflight.

TBO-MetWorkshop

Recommendations for future steps

Projectfollow-up(3)

Inthestormavoidanceproblem,thefollowingresearchisneededforthefuture:•  Theinclusionofothersourcesofuncertaintydifferentfromthelocation

oftheconvectivecells.•  Theimprovementofthunderstormuncertaintymodelling,e.g.,extracting

probabilisticfieldsbyusingprobabilisticnowcasts.•  Incaseoftheavailabilityofnowcastsproviding3Dstormcells,the

considerationofverticalavoidancemanoeuvres.•  Theconsiderationofoperationalenvironmentconstraints,suchas

preventingthedeviationtrajectoriesfromenteringintorestrictedorreservedairspaces.

TBO-MetWorkshop

Recommendations for future steps

Projectfollow-up(4)

Inthesectordemandproblem,thefollowingresearchisneededforthefuture:•  ExtensiontoTMAenvironment,consideringclimbing/descending

trajectories,whichmayenter/exitthesectoralsobytheupperandlowerlimits.

•  Multi-sectoranalysis,thatis,theextensionofthemethodologytobeabletoanalysetrafficconsideringseveralsectorsatonce.

•  Variablesectorconfiguration,totakeintoaccountthattheATCsectorscanbeopenedand/ormerged.

TBO-MetWorkshop

Recommendations for future steps

Projectfollow-up(5)

Input Trajectoryanalysis

Trafficanalysis

Midterm EPS TP/OptControl 1sector

Furtherresearch

Calibration ImprovedTP Multisector/Variable

configuration

Input Trajectoryanalysis

Trafficanalysis

Shortterm Nowcast DIVMET 1sector

Furtherresearch

Probabilisticnowcast

ImprovedDIVMET

Multisector/Variable

configuration

TBO-MetWorkshop

Founding Members

ThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheSESARJointUndertakingundertheEuropeanUnion’sHorizon2020researchandinnovationprogrammeundergrantagreementNo[number]

Theopinionsexpressedhereinreflecttheauthor’sviewonly.UndernocircumstancesshalltheSESARJointUndertakingberesponsibleforanyusethatmaybemadeoftheinformationcontainedherein.

Thankyouverymuchforyourattention!

MeteorologicalUncertaintyManagementforTrajectoryBasedOperations—TBO-METTBO-Metworkshop