Forecast Review:

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

City One: Redding, California

Meteorology 415Fall 2012

Population (2011) • Total 92,328 • Density 1,500/sq mi (580/km2) • Demonym Reddingite

Redding, California

KRDD 231753Z 20007KT 10SM BKN017 11/07 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP164 T01060067 10106 20067 51013=KRDD 231753Z 20007KT 10SM BKN017 11/07 A3002=KRDD 231853Z 21009KT 10SM BKN024 12/06 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP164 T01170061=KRDD 231853Z 21009KT 10SM BKN024 12/06 A3002=KRDD 231953Z 18008KT 10SM SCT032 SCT039 BKN060 12/05 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP160 T01220050=KRDD 231953Z 18008KT 10SM SCT032 SCT039 BKN060 12/05 A3000=KRDD 232053Z 17012G15KT 10SM SCT040 SCT050 BKN060 14/04 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP154 T01390039 58009=KRDD 232053Z 17012G15KT 10SM SCT040 SCT050 BKN060 14/04 A2999=KRDD 232153Z 18010KT 10SM FEW044 BKN080 14/03 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP149 T01440033=KRDD 232153Z 18010KT 10SM FEW044 BKN080 14/03 A2998=KRDD 232253Z 18011KT 10SM SCT070 BKN090 14/03 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP146 T01440028=KRDD 232253Z 18011KT 10SM SCT070 BKN090 14/03 A2997=KRDD 232353Z 18007KT 10SM FEW033 SCT070 14/02 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB30E39 SLP142 P0000 60000 T01390022 10150 20106 58012=KRDD 232353Z 18007KT 10SM FEW033 SCT070 14/02 A2995=

Redding Observations

KRDD 232353Z 18007KT 10SM FEW033 SCT070 14/02 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB30E39 SLP142 P0000 60000 T01390022 10150 20106 58012=KRDD 232353Z 18007KT 10SM FEW033 SCT070 14/02 A2995=KRDD 240053Z 16007KT 10SM SCT065 OVC090 13/03 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP140 T01330028=KRDD 240053Z 16007KT 10SM SCT065 OVC090 13/03 A2995=KRDD 240153Z 17011KT 10SM OVC090 13/03 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T01280033=KRDD 240153Z 17011KT 10SM OVC090 13/03 A2994=KRDD 240253Z 17012KT 10SM SCT060 OVC090 13/03 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T01280033 56005=KRDD 240253Z 17012KT 10SM SCT060 OVC090 13/03 A2994=KRDD 240453Z AUTO 18012G18KT 10SM -RA OVC055 12/05 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB25 SLP139 P0000 T01170050=KRDD 240453Z AUTO 18012G18KT 10SM -RA OVC055 12/05 A2994=KRDD 240453Z AUTO 18012G18KT 10SM -RA OVC055 12/05 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB25 SLP139 P0000 T01170050=KRDD 240553Z AUTO 20007KT 10SM -RA OVC050 12/05 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP146 P0001 60001 T01170050 10139 20117 53008=

Redding Observations

KRDD 240553Z AUTO 20007KT 10SM -RA OVC050 12/05 A2996=KRDD 240653Z AUTO 20006KT 10SM -RA OVC050 11/06 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP143 P0002 T01060061=KRDD 240653Z AUTO 20006KT 10SM -RA OVC050 11/06 A2996=KRDD 240753Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM -RA OVC046 09/07 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP147 P0001 T00940072 401500067=KRDD 240753Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM -RA OVC046 09/07 A2997=KRDD 240853Z AUTO 17007KT 10SM -RA BKN045 OVC060 10/07 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP146 P0000 60003 T01000072 53002=KRDD 240853Z AUTO 17007KT 10SM -RA BKN045 OVC060 10/07 A2997=KRDD 240953Z AUTO 18010KT 8SM -RA OVC041 09/07 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP151 P0002 T00940072=KRDD 240953Z AUTO 18010KT 8SM -RA OVC041 09/07 A2998=KRDD 241053Z AUTO 18008KT 10SM -RA FEW017 BKN042 OVC049 09/07 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP151 P0007 T00890072=KRDD 241053Z AUTO 18008KT 10SM -RA FEW017 BKN042 OVC049 09/07 A2998=KRDD 241153Z AUTO 20009KT 10SM FEW019 BKN075 OVC085 09/07 A2999 RMK AO2 RAE03 SLP154 P0000 60012 70013 T00890072 10117 20089 51007=KRDD 241153Z AUTO 20009KT 10SM FEW019 BKN075 OVC085 09/07 A2999=

Redding Observations

Surface Conditions - ReddingOrganized low pressure systems require more energetic waves aloft….

Satellite View - Redding

Radar - ReddingThe strength of a West Coast disturbance can be measured by how much its precipitation signature does NOT conform to the topography…

Upper Air - Redding

Model GuidanceBe careful of DMO in rugged terrain since the nearest grid point may be in a different climate zone

Verifications - Redding

Scores - Survey

Scores - Career

Up Close and Personal

The strength of the upper level disturbance determines the amount of lift/ vertical motionsA prolonged west or southwest flow is needed for heavy precipitation in the northern end of the Central ValleyTemperatures do not vary much under mostly cloudy skies day and night.Winds are usually light, unless it is from the south or mixing down from aloft.MOS is very good in timing fronts coming into northern California.

Lessons Learned - Redding

Forecast Review:

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

City Two: Binghamton, New York

Meteorology 415Fall 2012

Binghamton, NYPopulation (2010 census)[2][3]

 • City 47,376 • Density 4,300.9/sq mi (1,656.6/km2) • Metro 251,725Demonym Binghamtonian

KBGM 231753Z 12006KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC010 09/08 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP185 P0005 60016 T00890083=KBGM 231814Z 14005KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN012 09/08 A3006=KBGM 231829Z 14005KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN041 BKN055 OVC065 09/08 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3 P0001=KBGM 231853Z 16004KT 2SM -RA BR FEW048 OVC060 09/09 A3006 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 2 1/2 SLP183 P0004 T00940089=KBGM 231953Z 13004KT 1SM RA BR BKN017 BKN046 OVC060 10/09 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP178 P0010 T01000089 RVRNO=KBGM 232001Z 14006KT 1/2SM RA FG BKN024 BKN046 OVC055 10/09 A3004 RMK AO2 P0003 RVRNO=KBGM 232014Z 15004KT 1/4SM RA FG BKN025 BKN046 OVC065 10/09 A3004 RMK AO2 P0005 RVRNO=KBGM 232053Z 15004KT 1/2SM RA FG SCT030 BKN050 OVC065 10/09 A3003 RMK AO2 SLP175 P0015 60029 T01000094 58008 RVRNO=KBGM 232153Z 00000KT 1 1/4SM -RA BR OVC037 11/10 A3005 RMK AO2 SLP183 P0006 T01060100=KBGM 232253Z 18003KT 3SM -RA BR SCT022 OVC027 11/11 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP183 P0005 T01110106=KBGM 232353Z 17003KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC017 12/11 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP182 P0002 60042 T01170106 10117 20089 50001=

Binghamton Observations

KBGM 232353Z 17003KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC017 12/11 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP182 P0002 60042 T01170106 10117 20089 50001=KBGM 240053Z 19003KT 3SM BR FEW011 BKN034 OVC044 12/11 A3007 RMK AO2 RAE00 SLP185 P0000 T01170111=KBGM 240153Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG BKN002 OVC031 12/11 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP188 T01170111 RVRNO=KBGM 240253Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG BKN002 OVC020 11/11 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP188 60000 T01110106 51006 RVRNO=KBGM 240317Z 00000KT 1SM BR FEW002 OVC018 12/11 A3007=KBGM 240418Z 00000KT 1 1/2SM BR SCT001 BKN008 OVC016 12/11 A3008 RMK AO2=KBGM 240453Z 23003KT 1/2SM FG VV004 12/11 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP190 T01170111 401220056 RVRNO=KBGM 240553Z 00000KT 1/2SM FG VV003 12/11 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP189 60000 T01170111 10122 20111 55001 RVRNO=KBGM 240653Z 00000KT 1/2SM FG BKN003 OVC024 12/11 A3008 RMK AO2 RAB0559E36 SLP190 P0003 T01170111 RVRNO=KBGM 240753Z 23004KT 1/2SM FG BKN002 OVC021 12/12 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP187 P0001 T01220117 RVRNO=KBGM 240853Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG BKN004 OVC032 13/12 A3008 RMK AO2 RAB10E28 SLP187 P0001 60005 T01280117 50000 RVRNO=KBGM 240953Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV002 12/12 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP189 T01220117 RVRNO=KBGM 241053Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV002 12/12 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP194 T01170117 RVRNO=KBGM 241153Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV002 12/12 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP198 60005 70063 T01170117 10128 20117 53010 RVRNO $=

Binghamton Observations

Surface Conditions - Binghamton

Satellite View - Binghamton

Radar - Binghamton

Upper Air - Binghamton

Model GuidanceRainfall through 12z Wed expected between .50-.75”Actual = 0.63”

Verifications - Binghamton

Scores - Career

Up Close and Personal

Frontogenesis is a strength of the mesoscale models and its stratiform precipitation amounts are credible. Fog and low clouds in an upslope flow (such as BGM) are common when rain-cooled air is not stirred during the day.PVA is a good lifting mechanism over a front boundary.

Lessons Learned - Binghamton