Meteorology 415Meteorology 415Fall 2012Fall 2012

Review of Forecast 4Review of Forecast 4Contest 1Contest 1

Minneapolis, MNMinneapolis, MN

Minneapolis, MNMinneapolis, MN• City 382,578 (US: 48th)  • Density 7,019.6/sq mi (2,710.1/km2)  • Urban 2,849,567  • Metro 3,317,308 (16th)

Minneapolis, MNMinneapolis, MN

FAA Identifier: MSP Lat/Long: 44-52-55.1000N / 093-13-18.4000W44-52.918333N / 093-13.306667W44.8819722 / -93.2217778(estimated) Elevation: 841.9 ft. / 256.6 m (surveyed) Variation: 02E (1995) From city: 6 miles SW of MINNEAPOLIS, MN Time zone: UTC -5 (UTC -6 during Standard Time)

Observations from Minneapolis, Observations from Minneapolis, MNMN

KMSP 111753Z 17012G18KT 8SM FEW170 SCT300 31/09 A2976 RMK KMSP 111753Z 17012G18KT 8SM FEW170 SCT300 31/09 A2976 RMK AO2 VIRGAT03060094 10306 20172 58014=AO2 VIRGAT03060094 10306 20172 58014=

KMSP 111853Z 19019G27KT 9SM FEW170 SCT200 33/08 A2974 RMK KMSP 111853Z 19019G27KT 9SM FEW170 SCT200 33/08 A2974 RMK AO2 PK WND 19027/1852 SLP062 VIRGA T03330083=AO2 PK WND 19027/1852 SLP062 VIRGA T03330083=

KMSP 111953Z 18019G26KT 9SM FEW170 SCT200 34/08 A2972 RMK KMSP 111953Z 18019G26KT 9SM FEW170 SCT200 34/08 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 18028/1914 SLP057 VIRGA T03440078=AO2 PK WND 18028/1914 SLP057 VIRGA T03440078=

KMSP 112053Z 19016G28KT 10SM FEW170 35/08 A2971 RMK AO2 PK KMSP 112053Z 19016G28KT 10SM FEW170 35/08 A2971 RMK AO2 PK WND 21030/2032 SLP053 VIRGA T03500078 56018=WND 21030/2032 SLP053 VIRGA T03500078 56018=

KMSP 112153Z 20016G28KT 10SM FEW170 35/08 A2971 RMK AO2 PK KMSP 112153Z 20016G28KT 10SM FEW170 35/08 A2971 RMK AO2 PK WND 20032/2139 SLP052 T03500078=WND 20032/2139 SLP052 T03500078=

KMSP 112253Z 18018G24KT 10SM FEW170 34/08 A2970 RMK AO2 PK KMSP 112253Z 18018G24KT 10SM FEW170 34/08 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 18031/2240 SLP052 T03440083=WND 18031/2240 SLP052 T03440083=

KMSP 112353Z 19009G20KT 10SM FEW150 SCT300 33/09 A2973 RMK KMSP 112353Z 19009G20KT 10SM FEW150 SCT300 33/09 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 18027/2312 SLP060 T03280089 10350 20306 53006=AO2 PK WND 18027/2312 SLP060 T03280089 10350 20306 53006=

Observations from Minneapolis, Observations from Minneapolis, MNMN► KMSP 120053Z 19012G20KT 10SM FEW300 31/09 A2974 RMK AO2 SLP066 T03110089=KMSP 120053Z 19012G20KT 10SM FEW300 31/09 A2974 RMK AO2 SLP066 T03110089=

► KMSP 120153Z 20010G21KT 10SM SCT300 31/09 A2977 RMK AO2 SLP075 T03060089=KMSP 120153Z 20010G21KT 10SM SCT300 31/09 A2977 RMK AO2 SLP075 T03060089=► KMSP 120253Z 21014G21KT 10SM SCT300 29/08 A2979 RMK AO2 SLP082 T02940083 53021=KMSP 120253Z 21014G21KT 10SM SCT300 29/08 A2979 RMK AO2 SLP082 T02940083 53021=► KMSP 120353Z 21013G22KT 10SM BKN300 28/09 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP088 T02780089=KMSP 120353Z 21013G22KT 10SM BKN300 28/09 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP088 T02780089=► KMSP 120453Z 22009KT 10SM BKN300 27/09 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP096 T02720094=KMSP 120453Z 22009KT 10SM BKN300 27/09 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP096 T02720094=► KMSP 120553Z 23006KT 10SM BKN300 26/10 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP102 T02560100 10328KMSP 120553Z 23006KT 10SM BKN300 26/10 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP102 T02560100 10328► 20256 403500172 51020=20256 403500172 51020=► KMSP 120630Z 32010G18KT 10SM BKN300 23/11 A2989 RMK AO2 PRESRR=KMSP 120630Z 32010G18KT 10SM BKN300 23/11 A2989 RMK AO2 PRESRR=► KMSP 120653Z 32010KT 9SM BKN300 23/11 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP120 T02280111=KMSP 120653Z 32010KT 9SM BKN300 23/11 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP120 T02280111=► KMSP 120753Z 32011KT 9SM SCT110 BKN170 BKN300 21/09 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP133KMSP 120753Z 32011KT 9SM SCT110 BKN170 BKN300 21/09 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP133► T02110094=T02110094=► KMSP 120853Z 32010KT 10SM FEW055 BKN110 BKN170 BKN300 20/08 A2999 RMK AO2KMSP 120853Z 32010KT 10SM FEW055 BKN110 BKN170 BKN300 20/08 A2999 RMK AO2► RAB30E51 SLP147 P0000 60000 T02000078 51044=RAB30E51 SLP147 P0000 60000 T02000078 51044=► KMSP 120934Z 31008KT 10SM -RA BKN100 OVC130 18/08 A3003 RMK AO2 RAB13 PRESRRKMSP 120934Z 31008KT 10SM -RA BKN100 OVC130 18/08 A3003 RMK AO2 RAB13 PRESRR► P0000=P0000=► KMSP 120953Z 33007KT 10SM -RA OVC100 17/09 A3004 RMK AO2 RAB13 SLP167 P0000KMSP 120953Z 33007KT 10SM -RA OVC100 17/09 A3004 RMK AO2 RAB13 SLP167 P0000► T01720094=T01720094=► KMSP 121053Z 04008KT 10SM OVC110 16/09 A3001 RMK AO2 RAE39 PRESFR SLP157KMSP 121053Z 04008KT 10SM OVC110 16/09 A3001 RMK AO2 RAE39 PRESFR SLP157► PRESENT WX VCSH P0002 T01560089=PRESENT WX VCSH P0002 T01560089=► KMSP 121121Z 00000KT 10SM FEW090 BKN110 16/09 A3005 RMK AO2 RAB1057E10 P0000=KMSP 121121Z 00000KT 10SM FEW090 BKN110 16/09 A3005 RMK AO2 RAB1057E10 P0000=► KMSP 121153Z 00000KT 10SM BKN100 OVC120 17/09 A3006 RMK AO2 RAB1057E10 SLP175KMSP 121153Z 00000KT 10SM BKN100 OVC120 17/09 A3006 RMK AO2 RAB1057E10 SLP175► P0000 60002 70002 T01670089 10256 20156 51026=P0000 60002 70002 T01670089 10256 20156 51026=

Synoptic PatternSynoptic Pattern

Surface AnalysisSurface Analysis

RadarRadar

Upper LevelUpper Level

VerificationVerification

StandingsStandings

Contest 1 StandingsContest 1 Standings

Lessons Learned - MSPLessons Learned - MSP►For a variety of reasons – MOS is hard to For a variety of reasons – MOS is hard to

beat!beat!►The SREF precip forecast was quite good The SREF precip forecast was quite good

with showers developing behind the front.with showers developing behind the front.►Often times in a moistening air mass, dew Often times in a moistening air mass, dew

points increasing ahead of a front, if the points increasing ahead of a front, if the main wave is lifting (low scooted from SD to main wave is lifting (low scooted from SD to Ontario), the cool air thins out – allowing Ontario), the cool air thins out – allowing overrunning or under-cutting precip to form.overrunning or under-cutting precip to form.

Applied forecastApplied forecast►The Minnesota Twins are hosting the Kansas City The Minnesota Twins are hosting the Kansas City

Royals at 8:05pm LDT. The teams’ PR Royals at 8:05pm LDT. The teams’ PR department is planning to give away a helium department is planning to give away a helium filled balloon to all attendees to be released filled balloon to all attendees to be released simultaneously after the national anthem simultaneously after the national anthem provided that the wind is not from the south-provided that the wind is not from the south-southwest at more than 10mph as this would southwest at more than 10mph as this would carry the balloons into the path of helicopters carry the balloons into the path of helicopters spraying at Columbia Park.spraying at Columbia Park.

Applied forecastApplied forecast►What do you expect the winds to be at What do you expect the winds to be at

01z?01z?►A) 180-210 at 15ktsA) 180-210 at 15kts►B) 211-240 at 15ktsB) 211-240 at 15kts►C) 180-210 at 10ktsC) 180-210 at 10kts►D) 211-240 at 10ktsD) 211-240 at 10kts►E) 241-270 at 5ktsE) 241-270 at 5kts