Methods for evaluation of regulation affecting flexibility ... Møller... · CONCLUDING: HAS CONTENTS, NEEDS STRUCTURE 1: Methodologies for evaluation of regulation that affects the

Methods for evaluation of regulation affecting flexibility in energy systems

A review of the literature

Daniel Møller Sneum, Energy Economics and Regulation, DTU Management Engineering, DK

SAEE conference, Luleå, Sweden

August 2016

AGENDA

1. The problem: Why look at methods for evaluation of regulation

2. Method applied: Literature review

3. Tentative results: What does the literature say

4. Tentative analysis: What structures emerge and can they be used for anything?

~Tentative results - Comments most welcome!~

MEET YOUR TEACHING ASSISTANTS

I like qualitative

stuff!

§

I like to model!

Ref: https://larottaperitaca.wordpress.com/2012/01/12/banach-tarski-le-arance-danesi/

HYPOTHESIS: STRUCTURE IS MISSING

• Much has been written on flexibility regarding • Technologies

• Markets

• Systems

• Modelling

• Less on how we overall identify, characterise and evaluate regulation affecting flexibility

Ref: https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sperm_whale_skeleton.jpg

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

What is the state of the art on methodologies for evaluation of regulation that affects the flexibility of energy systems?

What elements from those methodologies can be applied to build a comprehensive methodology for evaluation of this type of regulation?

Scope: Energy system with electricity, heat, gas and transport

METHODOLOGY

Why literature review?

• To identify state of the art

• …and gaps

• Build future research on both

Why systematic?

• An approach to literature review that will increase rigor, is replicable and reduce bias

• The contradiction is narrative reviews, which approach the subject more unstructured

WORK IN PROGRESS

Tranfield (2003) defines ten phases:

0. Identification for the need for a review

1. Preparation of a proposal for a review

2. Development of a review protocol

3. Identification of research

4. Selection of studies

5. Study quality assessment

6. Data extraction and monitoring progress

7. Data synthesis

8. The report and recommendations

9. Getting evidence into practice

METHOD

Nvivo for coding of references

Baritaud, Manuel (2012)

International Energy Agency (2014) Keane, Gary (2010)

Miller, M; Bird, L; Cochran, J; Milligan, M; Bazilian, M; Renewable, National; Denny, E; Dillon, J; Bialek, J; Limited, Ecar; Neuhoff, K (2013)

Definition - flexibility resources 0 0 4 0 Market design 2 20 2 8

Operation - utilized flexibility resources 0 1 2 0

50 MOST FREQUENT WORDS

RESULT: EMERGING SUBJECTS

LITERATURE: Investment/adequacy

LITERATURE: (flexible) operation

LITERATURE: Technologies – physical capability of suppling flexibility

RESULT: EMERGING HIERARCHY

Investment/adequacy

(flexible) operation

Flexible technologies – physical ability to supply flexibility

Flexible resources

Available flexible resources

Available flexible resources operated flexibly

HIERARCHY: EXAMPLE WITH CHP

CHPs on the ground

CHPs on the ground, operating flexibly

Combined heat and power plant (CHP)

Flexible resources



What goes on here? And here?

Picture ref: http://www.publicdomainpictures.net/view-image.php?image=71841&picture=&jazyk=DE

EMERGING STRUCTURE: FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS

Markets 1

Markets 2

Markets 3

Regulation 1

Regulation 2Regulation 3

Regulation 4

Regulation 5

Regulation 6

Flexible resources



What is holding Available flexible resources back?

What is holding Available flexible

resources operated flexibly

back?

ANSWER: framework conditions

WHAT ARE THE FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS?

LITERATURE: ”Framework conditions are context-specific”

Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Singapore_Road_Signs_-_Temporary_Sign_-_Detour.svg

IT’S A MESS! TAXONOMY

NEEDED!


DETOUR: FINDING THE FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS

Example of taxonomy to identify framework conditions: ORIGIN ACTOR/AREA

External Market

Government/politics

Technology/services suppliers

Designers and manufacturers

Energy suppliers

Capital suppliers

Internal Economic

Behavioural

Organisational

Barriers related to competences

Awareness Cagno et al. (2013)

My kind of work

§

THE FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS - NICE AND STRUCTURED

Markets 1

Markets 2

Markets 3

Regulation 1


Regulation 4

Regulation 5

Regulation 6

Flexible resources



WHERE ARE THE FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS PLACED?

Markets 1

Markets 2

Markets 3

Regulation 1


Regulation 4

Regulation 5

Regulation 6

Flexible resources



They are identified qualitatively by regulation review…

Finally!


Yes!

§

…but must be confirmed by modelling, due to possible inter-dependencies

SUMMING UP

1. Literature gives us fragments: 1. Technical ability to provide flexibility (Flexible

resources) 2. Investmest and adequacy-related discussions

(Available flexible resources) 3. Flexible operation (Available flexible resources

operated flexibly)

2. We deduct a hierarchy:

3. We ask, “What FCs?” 1. Literature gives us a mess of framework

conditions detour for taxonomy

4. We ask, “Where are the FCs?” 1. Iterative policy review AND modelling

CONCLUDING: HAS CONTENTS, NEEDS STRUCTURE

1: Methodologies for evaluation of regulation that affects the flexibility of energy systems

2: Build a comprehensive methodology for evaluation of this type of regulation

• No systematic methodological considerations have been identified, indicating an absence of methodologies that can addresses the full spectrum of sectors, market frameworks and regulatory frameworks. This potentially limits the identification of low-hanging fruits when identifying, evaluating and addressing the impact of regulation on flexibility.

• Several applied-level examples.

• Evaluation of regulation affecting flexibility is seen addressed in conjunction with more overall considerations on integration of VRE.

• Much on markets; less on the regulatory part. Suggests a need for further considerations and treatment of the subject, for the most part in the scientific literature.

• Methodology developed from elements emerging from literature.

• Criticism of applied method and the developed methodology: • Potential for bias should be addressed.

• Is there a need for it?

www.Flex4RES.org

Tack så mycket!

http://www.flex4res.org/

REFERENCES (more to come)

• Baritaud, M., 2012. Securing Power during the Transition, Paris.

• Bertsch, J. et al., 2016. Flexibility in Europe’s power sector-An additional requirement or an automatic complement? Energy Economics, 53, pp.118–131.

• Cagno, E. et al., 2013. A novel approach for barriers to industrial energy efficiency. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 19, pp.290–308.

• Cochran, J. et al., 2014. Flexibility in 21 st Century Power Systems, Golden.

• Cochran, J. et al., 2013. Market Evolution: Wholesale Electricity Market Design for 21 st Century Power Systems, Golden. Available at: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/57477.pdf.

• Danish Energy Agency, 2015. Flexibility in the Power System - Danish and European experiences, Copenhagen.

• Dragoon, K. & Papaefthymiou, G., 2015. Power System Flexibility Strategic Roadmap - Preparing power systems to supply reliable power from variable energy resources, Berlin. Available at: http://www.leonardo-energy.org/sites/leonardo-energy/files/documents-and-links/strategic_flexibility_roadmap-final-beta_version.pdf.

• ENTSO-E, 2016. ENTSO-E position on the review of the Renewable Energy Directive. Available at: https://www.entsoe.eu/publications/position-papers/position-papers-archive/Pages/Position Papers/ENTSO-E-position-on-the-review-of-the-renewables-energy-directive.aspx [Accessed February 17, 2016].

• EURELECTRIC, 2014. Flexibility and aggregation - requirements for their interaction in the market, Available at: http://www.eurelectric.org/media/115877/tf_bal-agr_report_final_je_as-2014-030-0026-01-e.pdf.

• GE Energy, 2010. Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, New York. Available at: http://www.osti.gov/bridge.

• Gottstein, M. & Skillings, S.A., 2012. Beyond capacity markets - Delivering capability resources to Europe’s decarbonised power system. In 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 12. pp. 1–8.

• Henriot, A. & Glachant, J.M., 2013. Melting-pots and salad bowls: The current debate on electricity market design for integration of intermittent RES. Utilities Policy, 27, pp.57–64. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2013.09.001.

• Hvelplund, F., 2001. Electricity Reforms, Democracy and Technological Change, Aalborg: Institute for Development and Planning, Aalborg University.

• IEA, 2014. The power of transformation,

• International Energy Agency, 2016. Re-powering Markets, Paris.

• Keane, G., 2010. Options for low-carbon power sector flexibility to 2050, Oxford.


• Kondziella, H. & Bruckner, T., 2016. Flexibility requirements of renewable energy based electricity systems - A review of research results and methodologies. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 53, pp.10–22. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.199.

• Lund, H., 2014. Renewable Energy Systems 2nd ed., Aalborg: Academic Press.

• Lund, H. et al., 2013. System and market integration of wind power in Denmark. Energy Strategy Reviews, 1(3), pp.143–156.

• Lund, P.D. et al., 2015. Review of energy system flexibility measures to enable high levels of variable renewable electricity. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 45, pp.785–807. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.01.057.

• Miller, M. et al., 2013. RES-E-NEXT,

• Milligan, M. et al., 2014. Market designs for high levels of variable generation. 2014 IEEE PES General Meeting | Conference & Exposition, (October), pp.1–5. Available at: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/lpdocs/epic03/wrapper.htm?arnumber=6939455.

• Mott MacDonald, 2015. Integration of Variable Renewables, Brighton.

• Møller Sneum, D. et al., 2016. Framework conditions for flexibility in the district heating-electricity interface, Lyngby. (in press)

• Papaefthymiou, G., Grave, K. & Dragoon, K., 2014. Flexibility options in electricity systems, Berlin. Available at: http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-eci-2014-flexibility-options-in-electricity-systems.pdf.

• SWECO, 2015. Study on the effective integration of demand energy recourses for providing flexibility to the electricity system,

• THEMA Consulting Group, 2014. Input to strategy on demand flexibility in the Nordic countries, Oslo.

• Tranfield, D., Denyer, D. & Smart, P., 2003. Towards a methodology for developing evidence-informed management knowledge by means of systematic review *. British Journal of Management, 14, pp.207–222.

• Tuerk, A. & Fruhmann, C., 2016. EMERGING FRAMEWORKS FOR AGGREGATORS IN THE EU,

• Tveten, Å.G., 2015. Renewable energy in Northern European power markets: effects, challenges and integration options. Norwegian University of Life Sciences.


Documents

Methods for evaluation of regulation affecting flexibility ... Møller... · CONCLUDING: HAS CONTENTS, NEEDS STRUCTURE 1: Methodologies for evaluation of regulation that affects the