A Conceptual Framework for Measuring the Exposure to Tsunamis of Puerto Rican

Coastal Communities

Meulaboh, Aceh

Jean-Edouard FaucherSaylisse Dávila, PhD

Department of Industrial EngineeringUniversity of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez, PR

Roy Ruiz-VélezPuerto Rico Seismic Network

Puerto Rico Water Resources and Environmental Research InstituteUniversity of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez, PR

Agenda

ANP model

Data collection

Tsunami-prone zones

Objectives

Background

Data pre-processing

Cities rank by TEI

Future Work

Vulnerability

Federal Emergency Management Agency (2013), Community Coastal Resilience.

1

2

3

What assets are within tsunami-prone areas?

What relative proportion of assets are in tsunami-prone areas?

How communities withstand, adapt, and recover from the

onslaught of a tsunami?

Relevance

SOURCE:

• A tsunami is a series of ocean waves generated by sudden displacements inthe sea floor, landslides, or volcanic activity.

• Historical evidence suggests Puerto Rico and the Caribbean are seismicallyactive zones.

• Devastating tsunamis in the last decade, such as the ones that occurred inthe Indian Ocean (2004) and Japan (2011), caused over:

• 250,000 deaths

• 220 billion dollars in losses

• 100,000 structures affected

Objectives

1. Advance the understanding of the vulnerability to tsunamis of Puerto Rico’s coastal communities.

2. Characterize tsunami evacuation zones in terms of exposureand sensitivity.

3. Support emergency responders and strategic planners in the development of mitigation, response, and recovery strategies for tsunamis.

NOTE: By coastal communities we refer to cities with direct sea access and cities without direct sea access but that are still subject to tsunami floods (Canóvanas and Bayamón).

Tsunami-prone zones

• PRSN and UPRM Marine Sciences develop tsunami flood maps.

• PRSN develops tsunami evacuation zones (TEZ).

• TEZ maps are made official after approval of respective municipality mayors and local & state PREMA officials.

• All data analysis considered official TEZ maps as of January 2014.

PREMA = Puerto Rico Emergency Management Agency

Data Collection

Data Collection

• Data Sources

Puerto Rico Emergency

Management Agency

[PREMA] (2003)

• Dasymetric analysis

– All variables were calculated for the TEZ zone using GISdasymetric mapping analysis.

– This method facilitate data transferring from one layer(e.g., census tracks) to another layer with zones of relativehomogeneity (e.g., employee zones).

GIS Data Pre-Processing

Assumptions

Data is uniformly distribu-ted over zones of interest.

Areal weighting is used to discriminate between city-level and TEZ-level data.

e.g., Employee Zones

GIS Data Pre-ProcessingZones of Interest

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N

FA

CIL

IT

IE

SE

CO

NO

MY

LA

ND

U

SE

Human Developed Zones

Inhabited ZonesEconomic Activity Zones

PREMA Zones

Source: PREMA

ANP model

Legend:ANP = Analytic Network ProcessTEZ = Tsunami Evacuation Zone

Cities with territories

within TEZ

Economy

within TEZ

Human

Developed

Non-Human-

Developed

Owner-occupied

households

Recreational

housing

Renter-

occupied households

Population within TEZ

Population attributes

Vulnerable population

Population over

65 yrs old

Population

under 5 yrs old

Other

Median Age

Single-mother

households

Critical

facilities

Public venues

Essential facilities

Banks

Grocery stores

PharmaciesGas stations

Courts of law

ParksMovie

theatersHotels

SchoolsZoos

Shopping centers

Fast food restaurants

Major streets and highways

Tourist attractionsMuseums

UniversitiesStadiumsChurches

Public beaches

⁞

Fire stationsHospitals

State agency for emergency

management (AEMEAD)

Police stationsRadio

TelevisionWater treatment

plantsPower stations

Ambulance Emergency Response VehiclesEssential

government facilities for

disaster management

⁞

Tourists

Facilities

within TEZ

< high school

degree

Disabled

population

Land Use

within TEZ

Households

Household

size

Income below poverty level

Taxes on income

Employee

salaries

Individuals

Corporations

Total sales (local +

exports)

Government

ANP in Super Decisions

Puerto Rico Tsunami Exposure Index (TEI)

ECONOMY FACILITIES

POPULATION LAND USE

Exposure and Sensitivity Zone I

Future Work

• Develop index for adaptive capacity by incorporating variables that quantify o mitigation, response, and recovery efforts

o e.g., pedestrian evacuation time• Reduce the number of vulnerability attributes• Consider dimensionality reduction techniques

Conclusions

• Develop a new methodology that can:

• Be easily adapted to other natural disasters.

o Even more than one disaster simultaneously.

• Facilitate how public officials manage disasters by:

o Clearly delineating highly vulnerable hot spots.

o Outlining the scheme for preparedness funding

allocation.

Acknowledgements

• Juan Ayala

• Fernando Salazar

• Nicole Castiel

• Janedys Malavé

Discussion

Jean-Edouard Faucher – Estudiante GraduadoDepartamento de Ingeniería Industrial UPRMJean-edouard.faucher@upr.edu

Saylisse Dávila, PhD – Investigadora PrincipalDepartamento de Ingeniería Industrial UPRMsaylisse.davila@upr.edu

Roy Ruiz Vélez – Auxiliar de InvestigacionesRed Sísmica de Puerto Rico (RSPR) eInstituto de Recursos de Agua (PRWRERI) UPRMroy.ruiz1@upr.edu

Backup Slides

Puerto Rico Tsunami Exposure Index (TEI)

San Juan 0.595 Vega Baja 0.695 Arecibo 0.764

Toa Baja 0.403 Dorado 0.489 Barceloneta 0.306

Carolina 0.230 Manatí 0.213 Hatillo 0.291

Bayamón 0.125 Vega Alta 0.171 Camuy 0.135

Cataño 0.125 Quebradillas 0.071

Guaynabo 0.090

Zone I Zone II Zone III

Aguada 0.455 Mayagüez 1.000 Ponce 0.551

Rincón 0.363 Cabo Rojo 0.395 Guayanilla 0.404

Aguadilla 0.328 Lajas 0.172 Juana Díaz 0.312

Añasco 0.246 Guánica 0.147

Isabela 0.175 Peñuelas 0.105

Yauco 0.048

Zone IV Zone V Zone VI

Santa Isabel 0.405 Humacao 0.994 Loiza 0.575

Salinas 0.373 Naguabo 0.211 Río Grande 0.303

Guayama 0.355 Yabucoa 0.197 Luquillo 0.224

Patillas 0.246 Maunabo 0.166 Fajardo 0.217

Arroyo 0.188 Canóvanas 0.078

Vieques 0.063

Ceiba 0.060

Culebra 0.049

Zone IX Zone XI Zone XII

Economy, land use, and facilities

Population Attributes

Vulnerable Populations

Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone II)

Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone III)

Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone IV)

Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone V)

Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone VI)

Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone IX)

Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone XI)

Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone XII)