MFS White Paper Why Go Global Fixed Income? January 2020 ......There is evidence that investing in non-US fixed income markets can result in improved risk-adjusted ... Chinese and

FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY

In brief ■ Risk-adjusted returns — An allocation to nondomestic bonds has the potential to enhance risk-

adjusted returns based on a larger, more differentiated universe and a greater number of alpha levers.

■ Diversification — Allocations to foreign bonds historically have not lowered expected returns once

currency hedging costs are considered. The diversification achieved from partially uncorrelated

markets can, however, reduce the risk required to achieve these returns, resulting in potentially higher

risk-adjusted returns.

■ Alpha levers — Active managers may also benefit from an expanded global opportunity set that

encompasses relative value trades across countries, currencies, sectors and individual securities.

This additional flexibility may be particularly advantageous now since, in a lower-yield environment,

alpha is an increasingly important component of overall return.

There is a strong case for US investors to include an allocation to global fixed income in their strategic

asset allocation. Non-US bonds now make up a very sizable proportion of the Bloomberg Barclays Global

Aggregate Index — 60% in fact, making it difficult to ignore this potential universe. While returns in global

fixed income markets are often comparable after hedging costs are considered, correlations are quite low

and can differ from US Treasuries, potentially leading to higher risk-adjusted returns.

The investment case for nondomestic bondsThere is evidence that investing in non-US fixed income markets can result in improved risk-adjusted

returns. Exhibits 1 and 2 show the annualized returns (hedged to US dollars) of similar maturity sovereign

bond markets in the major developed and developing countries, along with the corresponding Sharpe ratios,

a risk-adjusted measure of returns.

Notably, returns from US Treasuries are close to the average of these markets over a five and 10-year period,

while many other countries, including the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan and Italy, all have superior

Sharpe ratios over these periods. Japan's high Sharpe ratio is noteworthy, reflecting the reasonable returns

Japanese bonds have produced (hedged to US dollars) with lower volatility than the US Treasury market.

Japan is generally a lower-volatility market mainly due to the stabilizing influence of the Bank of Japan's

quantitative easing program.

An allocation to global bonds presents the opportunity to gain returns comparable to those of US Treasuries

with lower risk and greater diversification.

Why Go Global Fixed Income? Opportunities for US Investors in global bonds

MFS® White Paper

January 2020

Authors

Pilar Gomez-Bravo, CFADirector of Fixed Income – Europe

Owen David Murfin, CFAInstitutional Fixed Income Portfolio Manager

Robert Spector, CFAFixed Income Portfolio Manager

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White Paper Why Go Global Fixed Income?


Exhibit 1: Annualized returns for global bond markets (7–10 year, hedged in USD)■ Hypothetical equally weighted portfolio ■ US ■ UK ■ Canada ■ Germany ■ Japan ■ China ■ Italy ■ Mexico

Source: FactSet SPAR. Data as of 30 September 2019. Equally Weighted Portfolio = hypothetical portfolio (with quarterly rebalancing) with 12.5% allocation to each of the other 7-10 year treasury indices listed. US = Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury 7-10 Year Index. UK = ICE BofAML UK Gilt 7-10 Year Index. Canada = FTSE Canadian Government Bond 7-10 Year Index. Germany = Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury Germany 7-10 Year Index. Japan = Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury Japan 7-10 Year Index. China = ICE BoFAML China Government 7-10 Year Index. Mexico = FTSE Mexican Government Bond 7-10 Year Index. Data reflect total returns hedged in USD. Hypothetical example is for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to represent the performance of any MFS strategy.

Tota

l Ret

urn,

ann

ualiz

ed (%

)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

10 Year5 Year

Exhibit 2: Sharpe ratio for global bond markets (7–10 year, hedged in USD)■ Hypothetical equally weighted portfolio ■ US ■ UK ■ Canada ■ Germany ■ Japan ■ China ■ Italy ■ Mexico

Source: FactSet SPAR. Data as of 30 September 2019. Equally Weighted Portfolio = hypothetical portfolio (with quarterly rebalancing) with 12.5% allocation to each of the other 7-10 year treasury indices listed. US = Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury 7-10 Year Index. UK = ICE BofAML UK Gilt 7-10 Year Index. Canada = FTSE Canadian Government Bond 7-10 Year Index. Germany = Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury Germany 7-10 Year Index. Japan = Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury Japan 7-10 Year Index. China = ICE BoFAML China Government 7-10 Year Index. Mexico = FTSE Mexican Government Bond 7-10 Year Index. Data based on total returns hedged in USD. Hypothetical example is for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to represent the performance of any MFS strategy.

Shar

pe R

atio

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

10 Year5 Year

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Also of interest is that combining these eight markets in an equally-weighted portfolio results in a hypothetical

portfolio superior to a US Treasury-only portfolio on both a return and Sharpe ratio basis over a 5- and 10-year

period (also shown in Exhibits 1 and 2). This again argues for a more global approach to bond investing.

The driver behind this relatively superior performance is diversification. Correlations of country returns can be

relatively low or moderate, resulting in portfolios that are more robust when these markets are combined.

The correlation matrix shown in Exhibit 3 suggests the 7–10 year sovereign debt of Italy, China and Mexico has

a low correlation with the equivalent debt of the developed markets shown; the correlation coefficients are

mostly less than 0.3, indicating relatively weak correlation. This result is underscored by the rolling 12-month

correlations plotted in Exhibit 4. Italian, Chinese and Mexican sovereign debt have had a number of periods

with very low and even negative correlation with US Treasury bonds.

We expect correlations to remain relatively low given differing monetary policies adopted by central

banks around the globe. For example, Norway, Mexico and to a lesser extent Canada have been more

hawkish in their monetary stance, while the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, as well

as some emerging market central banks, have delivered more stimulus in response to weaker growth and

inflation expectations.

Exhibit 3: Correlation matrix

US UK Canada Germany Japan China Italy Mexico

US 1.00

UK 0.81 1.00

Canada 0.84 0.77 1.00

Germany 0.77 0.82 0.73 1.00

Japan 0.57 0.50 0.56 0.50 1.00

China 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.28 0.21 1.00

Italy 0.25 0.17 0.22 0.26 0.21 0.05 1.00

Mexico 0.45 0.29 0.38 0.24 0.25 0.19 0.30 1.00

Source: FactSet SPAR. Monthly data from 30 November 2006 through 30 September 2019. US = Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury 7-10 Year Index. UK = ICE BofAML UK Gilt 7-10 Year Index. Canada = FTSE Canadian Government Bond 7-10 Year Index. Germany = Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury Germany 7-10 Year Index. Japan = Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury Japan 7-10 Year Index. China = ICE BofAML China Government 7-10 Year Index. Mexico = FTSE Mexican Government Bond 7-10 Year Index.

The driver behind the relatively superior performance is diversification. Correlations of country returns can be relatively low or moderate, resulting

in portfolios that are more robust when these markets are combined.

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Source: FactSet SPAR. Monthly data from 30 November 2006 through 30 September 2019. US = Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury 7-10 Year Index. UK = ICE BofAML UK Gilt 7-10 Year Index. Canada = FTSE Canadian Government Bond 7-10 Year Index. Germany = Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury Germany 7-10 Year Index. Japan = Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury Japan 7-10 Year Index. China = ICE BoFAML China Government 7-10 Year Index. Mexico = FTSE Mexican Government Bond 7-10 Year Index. Correlations based on total returns hedged in USD.

Exhibit 4: Rolling 12-month correlations with US Treasury 7–10 year index■ UK ■ Canada ■ Germany ■ Japan ■ China ■ Italy ■ Mexico

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2019201720152013201120092007

Corr

elat

ion

coef

ficie

nt

Liquidity has been a key consideration in fixed income markets since the global financial crisis; regulatory

changes made in its aftermath have constrained the ability of broker/dealers to provide liquidity in the

markets. Major government bond markets benefit from liquidity comparable to that of US Treasuries and

have established derivatives markets. This means trading costs may not offset the return benefits.

The alpha case for global bond investingThe alpha rationale for global bond investing centers on a far broader range of countries, currencies, sectors

and securities, which can present skilled active managers with a rich set of relative value opportunities.

In the current low-yield environment, it is important to highlight that alpha is not correlated with starting

yields. As a result, low yields have not precluded earning excess returns. This is illustrated in Exhibit 5, which

plots the yield on the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index, along with the median excess returns

generated by global bond managers in the subsequent year.2 The correlation of 0.04 is negligible, indicative of

the absence of correlation.

While the correlation is close to zero, there is more dispersion in excess returns when yields are higher,

suggesting the potential to earn greater returns in these environments, which makes intuitive sense. In the

period from 1990 to 1999, when there was more dispersion in alpha, some managers earned excess returns

of 4% to 8%, while others posted significant negative excess returns.

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Exhibit 5: Alpha is not correlated with starting yield

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 2 4 6 8 10

Subs

eque

nt G

loba

l Bon

d M

anag

er

Med

ian

Exce

ss R

etur

n (%

)

Starting Global Aggregate Yield-to-Worst (%)

Average Subsequent Excess Return is 61bps

2010 to 2018 2000 to 2009 1990 to 1999

Source: Bloomberg, eVestment. Global Aggregate = Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index. Yield-to-worst data reflect quarterly data from 30 September 1990 through 30 September 2018. Subsequent Global Bond Manager Median Excess Return Gross of Fees data reflect rolling median excess return quarterly data from start of Q4 1990 through Q3 2018. Universe is Global Aggregate Fixed Income. Vehicles considered are separate accounts, gross of fees. Results displayed in USD. Returns are directly provided by the investment manager or converted using spot rates when the base currency of the product is not in US dollars. Please note that this analysis includes both currency hedged and unhedged products. In an effort to lower currency exposure and risk, managers may utilize currency hedging tactics in their portfolio.

Country selectionIn the search for relative value, the sovereign debt of both developed and emerging countries can be fertile

ground for global bond managers. The pairwise correlation of Italian and Spanish 7 to 10 year sovereign

debt is an example, shown in Exhibit 6. Despite both countries being part of the eurozone, the debt of these

two countries has presented investment opportunities at a number of points in time as relative political and

economic risks have varied.

The alpha rationale for global bond investing centers on a far broader range of countries, currencies, sectors and securities, which can present skilled active managers with a rich set of relative value opportunities.

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Exhibit 6: Rolling 12-month correlations: Italy and Spain 7-10 year sovereign debt■ Rolling 12-month Correlation Average Rolling 12-month Correlation

Source: Bloomberg. Rolling 12-month correlation based on monthly total returns hedged in USD from 28 February 1992 through 30 September 2019. Italy = FTSE Italy GBI 7-10 Year Index. Spain = FTSE Spain GBI 7-10 Year Index.

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

201720142011200820052002199919961993

Corr

elat

ion

coef

ficie

nt

Currency managementInvesting globally also allows managers to take advantage of currency dislocations. Relative value can be

found in currencies, particularly when countries with similar economic and trade dynamics are compared.

For example, the relationship between the US-Canadian dollar and the US-Australian dollar exchange rate is

shown in Exhibit 7. While the currencies of Canada and Australia, two open export-oriented economies, have

generally moved in tandem, they have diverged more recently, with the Australian dollar weakening more

than the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. Sweden and Norway are two other similar economies with the

potential for currency dislocations.

Exhibit 7: Canadian vs. Australia dollar■ AUD-USD ■ CAD-USD

Source: Bloomberg. Weekly data from 2 January 2009 through 25 October 2019.

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

201920182017201620152014

AU

D/U

SD a

nd C

AD

/USD

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Asset allocation In the pursuit of alpha, asset allocation is another important tool as active managers look for sectors offering

better prospects for returns at different points in the economic and credit cycle. Key to success in active asset

allocation is moderate or low correlations between different sectors. Exhibits 8, 9 and 10 show three pairwise

correlations: US investment grade versus emerging market sovereign debt (hard currency); US nonfinancial

corporate debt (7 to 10 year maturity) versus European nonfinancial corporate debt (7 to 10 year maturity);

and US financial corporate debt (7 to 10 year maturity) versus European financial corporate debt (7 to 10

year maturity). In each pairing, there are periods when the correlation falls well below 0.5, presenting the

opportunity to benefit from uncorrelated streams of income.

Exhibit 8: Correlations: US high yield vs. EM sovereign excess returns■ Rolling 12-month Correlation Average

Source: Bloomberg. Rolling 12-month correlations based on monthly excess returns from 28 February 2003 through 31 October 2019. US high yield = Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index. EM sovereign = Bloomberg Barclays USD EM Sovereign Index.

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

20182016201420122010200820062004

Corr

elat

ion

coef

ficie

nt

Asset allocation is another important tool as active managers look for sectors offering better prospects for returns at different points in

the economic and credit cycle. Key to success in active asset allocation is moderate or low correlations between different sectors.

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Exhibit 9: Correlations of excess returns: US vs. European 7-10 year non-financial corporations■ Rolling 12-month Correlation Average

Source: Bloomberg. Rolling 12-month correlation based on monthly excess returns from 28 February 1997 through 31 October 2019. US = ICE BofAML 7-10 Year US Non-Financial Corporate Index. European = ICE BofAML 7-10 Year Euro Non-Financial Corporate Index. Excess returns are in USD.

-0.2

-0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

20182016201420122010200820062004200220001998

Corr

elat

ion

coef

ficie

nt

Exhibit 10: Correlations of excess returns: US vs. European 7-10 year financial corporations■ Rolling 12-month Correlation Average

Source: Bloomberg. Rolling 12-month correlation based on monthly excess returns from 28 February 1997 through 31 October 2019. US = ICE BofAML 7-10 Year US Financial Corporate Index. European = ICE BofAML 7-10 Year Euro Financial Corporate Index. Excess returns are in USD.

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

20182016201420122010200820062004200220001998

1.0

Corr

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ion

coef

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Security selectionA potential key benefit of a global bond allocation is that it provides a larger opportunity set for security

selection. Comparing the Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European Aggregate Corporate Index with the Bloomberg

Barclays US Aggregate Corporate Index is instructive in this regard (Exhibit 11). For US investors, including

the European credit index in their investable universe would give them access to about 400 names that

issue only in euros.3 These names would be unlikely to feature in a US-only investment strategy. In addition,

there are issuers that issue in multiple currencies, and there are occasions on which technical or valuation

dislocations in a specific currency provide an opportunity to extract higher expected returns with the same

credit risk.

Exhibit 11: US vs. European corporate indices

US Corporate Index(760 tickers)

European Corporate Index (602 tickers)

Shared Overlap:

201 Tickers

■ 54% of US Corporate Index (26% of tickers) overlaps with European Corporate Index ■ 49% of European Corporate Index (33% of tickers) overlaps with US Corporate Index.

Source: Bloomberg as of 30 September 2019. US Corporate Index = Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Corporate Index. European Aggregate Corporate Index = Bloomberg Barclays European Aggregate Corporate Index.

Examining dispersion is another way to assess alpha opportunities via security selection. Dispersion has

increased in high yield and emerging markets in the past six months, as shown in Exhibits 13 and 14. Global

investment grade has to date experienced only a modest pickup in dispersion, but we would expect this to

increase over time (Exhibit 12). Greater dispersion indicates there is more differentiation between securities in

the market and, consequently, more opportunity to generate alpha. We should note that there are numerous

ways to calculate dispersion. In these charts, dispersion is computed by taking the difference between the

80th and the 20th percentile issuer spread and dividing this by the median spread.

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Exhibit 12: Global investment grade dispersion■ Dispersion Median

Source: Bloomberg. Weekly data from 31 December 2014 through 6 November 2019. Global Investment Grade = Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Corporate Index.

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

201920182017201620152014

(80t

h–20

th p

erce

ntile

issu

er s

prea

d)/

med

ian

spre

ad

Exhibit 13: Global high yield dispersion■ Dispersion Median

Source: Bloomberg. Weekly data from 31 December 2014 through 6 November 2019. Global High Yield = Bloomberg Barclays Global Corporate High Yield Index.

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

201920182017201620152014

(80t

h–20

th p

erce

ntile

issu

er s

prea

d)/

med

ian

spre

ad

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Exhibit 14: Emerging markets sovereign dispersion■ Dispersion Median

Source: Bloomberg. Weekly data from 31 December 2014 through 6 November 2019. Emerging Markets Sovereign = Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets USD Sovereign Bond Index.

95%

105%

115%

125%

135%

145%

155%

201920182017201620152014

(80t

h–20

th p

erce

ntile

issu

er s

prea

d)/

med

ian

spre

ad

ConclusionAn allocation to global bonds presents the opportunity to potentially gain returns comparable to those of US

Treasuries with lower risk and greater diversification. Skilled managers may be able to take advantage of the far

richer opportunity set in areas like country and security selection in an effort to harvest alpha.

The available alpha levers contain potential risks as well as opportunities. A global fixed income portfolio would

typically include non-US sovereign and credit risk as well as the currency risk associated with holding assets

in various currencies. US-based investors may wish to invest in global strategies hedged to US dollars to avoid

currency exposure.

Given the expanded opportunity set and potential diversification inherent to a portfolio of global bonds, it

would be prudent for US investors to consider more global exposure in their bond allocations.

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FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY MFSE-GLOBOND-WP-1/20 44911.1

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Distributed by: U.S. - MFS Institutional Advisors, Inc. (“MFSI”), MFS Investment Management and MFS Fund Distributors, Inc.; Latin America - MFS International Ltd.; Canada - MFS Investment Management Canada Limited. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed this communication; U.K. - MFS International (U.K.) Limited (“MIL UK”), a private limited company registered in England and Wales with the company number 03062718, and authorized and regulated in the conduct of investment business by the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority. MIL UK, an indirect subsidiary of MFS, has its registered offi ce at One Carter Lane, London, EC4V 5ER UK and provides products and investment services to institutional investors globally. This material shall not be circulated or distributed to any person other than to professional investors (as permitted by local regulations) and should not be relied upon or distributed to persons where such reliance or distribution would be contrary to local regulation; Singapore - MFS International Singapore Pte. Ltd. (CRN 201228809M); Australia/New Zealand - MFSI and MIL UK are exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian fi nancial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of the fi nancial services they provide to Australian wholesale investors. MFS International Australia Pty Ltd (“ MFS Australia”) holds an Australian fi nancial services licence number 485343. In Australia and New Zealand: MFSI is regulated by the US Securities & Exchange Commission under US laws and MIL UK is regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority under UK laws, which differ from Australian and New Zealand laws. MFS Australia is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission; Hong Kong - MFS International (Hong Kong) Limited (“MIL HK”), a private limited company licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (the “SFC”). MIL HK is approved to engage in dealing in securities and asset management regulated activities and may provide certain investment services to “professional investors” as defi ned in the Securities and Futures Ordinance (“SFO”); Japan - MFS Investment Management K.K., is registered as a Financial Instruments Business Operator, Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No.312, a member of the Investment Trust Association, Japan and the Japan Investment Advisers Association. As fees to be borne by investors vary depending upon circumstances such as products, services, investment period and market conditions, the total amount nor the calculation methods cannot be disclosed in advance. All investments involve risks, including market fl uctuation and investors may lose the principal amount invested. Investors should obtain and read the prospectus and/or document set forth in Article 37-3 of Financial Instruments and Exchange Act carefully before making the investments.

Endnotes1 Sharpe ratio measures the performance of an investment compared to a risk-free asset after adjusting for its risk. It is defined as the difference

between the returns on the investment and the risk-free return, divided by the standard deviation of the investment.2 Exhibit 5 shows the rolling four-quarter median excess returns of managers in the global aggregate fixed income universe and compares it to the

yield of the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index at the beginning of each period. For example, the median excess return for the period beginning in Q4 1990 and ending in Q3 1991 was -2.66%. The yield at the start of Q4 1990 was 9.43%.

3 Calculated by subtracting the shared tickers from the aggregate European tickers.

Investments in debt instruments may decline in value as the result of, or perception of, declines in the credit quality of the issuer, borrower, counterparty, or other entity responsible for payment, underlying collateral, or changes in economic, political, issuer-specific, or other conditions. Certain types of debt instruments can be more sensitive to these factors and therefore more volatile. In addition, debt instruments entail interest rate risk (as interest rates rise, prices usually fall). Therefore, the portfolio's value may decline during rising rates. Portfolios that consist of debt instruments with longer durations are generally more sensitive to a rise in interest rates than those with shorter durations. At times, and particularly during periods of market turmoil, all or a large portion of segments of the market may not have an active trading market. As a result, it may be difficult to value these investments and it may not be possible to sell a particular investment or type of investment at any particular time or at an acceptable price. The price of an instrument trading at a negative interest rate responds to interest rate changes like other debt instruments; however, an instrument purchased at a negative interest rate is expected to produce a negative return if held to maturity.

Bloomberg Index Services Limited. BLOOMBERG® is a trademark and service mark of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates (collectively "Bloomberg"). BARCLAYS® is a trademark and service mark of Barclays Bank Plc (collectively with its affiliates, "Barclays"), used under license. Bloomberg or Bloomberg's licensors, including Barclays, own all proprietary rights in the Bloomberg Barclays Indices. Neither Bloomberg nor Barclays approves or endorses this material, or guarantees the accuracy or completeness of any information herein, or makes any warranty, express or implied, as to the results to be obtained therefrom and, to the maximum extent allowed by law, neither shall have any liability or responsibility for injury or damages arising in connection therewith.

London Stock Exchange Group plc and its group undertakings (collectively, the "LSE Group"). © LSE Group 2019. FTSE Russell is a trading name of certain of the LSE Group companies. "FTSE®" "Russell®", "FTSE Russell®", "MTS®", "FTSE4Good®", "ICB®", "Mergent®, The Yield Book®," is/are a trade mark(s) of the relevant LSE Group companies and is/are used by any other LSE Group company under license. "TMX®" is a trade mark of TSX, Inc. and used by the LSE Group under license. All rights in the FTSE Russell indexes or data vest in the relevant LSE Group company which owns the index or the data. Neither LSE Group nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the indexes or data and no party may rely on any indexes or data contained in this communication. No further distribution of data from the LSE Group is permitted without the relevant LSE Group company's express written consent. The LSE Group does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication.

BofA Merrill Lynch. BofA Merrill Lynch makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any BofA Merrill Lynch data contained herein. The BofA Merrill Lynch data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or financial products. This report is not sponsored, endorsed, approved, reviewed or produced by BofA Merrill Lynch.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and are subject to change at any time. These views are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to purchase any security or as a solicitation or investment advice from the Advisor

Documents

MFS White Paper Why Go Global Fixed Income? January 2020 ......There is evidence that investing in non-US fixed income markets can result in improved risk-adjusted ... Chinese and