MIAMI-DADE & BROWARD COUNTIESsarah-friedman.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/EWM...Miami-Dade from December 2015 to December 2016 was up 14% year-over-year, while sales market-wide were

MIAMI-DADE & BROWARD COUNTIESRESIDENTIAL MARKETS

Make A Better Move With The Market In Sight.

President & CEO, EWM Realty International | Ron ShuffieldSenior Vice President & General Sales Manager, EWM Realty International | Sherrie PorterSenior Vice President, Business Development, EWM Realty International | Patrick O’Connell

EDITORIALKreps DeMaria PR & Marketing | Israel KrepsKreps DeMaria PR & Marketing | Caroline Underwood

RESEARCHChief Financial Officer, EWM Realty International | Hena M. Aguirre, CPAFinancial Analyst, EWM Realty International | Sanja Shank, MBATrendGraphix, Inc.

DESIGNDirector of Marketing, EWM Realty International | Lee S. Casey, MBA

SPECIAL CONTRIBUTORSDirector, Transportation & Public Works, Miami-Dade County | Alice N. Bravo, P.E.Founder & Principal, Washington Economics Group | Dr. J. Antonio Villamil

DOWNLOAD 2017 OUTLOOK PRESENTATION

DOWNLOAD MIAMI-DADE CHARTS & DATA

DOWNLOAD BROWARD CHARTS & DATA

HILTON MIAMI DOWNTOWN 02.01.2017

EWM Realty International’s 2017 South Florida Real Estate Market Outlook provides a snapshot of 2016 results and trends expected to influence the 2017 residential real estate markets in Miami-Dade and Broward counties.

The proprietary platform from which this information is gleaned, coupled with insights provided by our internal research team, affords our readers a one-of-a-kind perspective on South Florida’s dynamic residential real estate market.

During 2016, we saw a confluence of factors impacting residential real estate: continued downward pressure on the foreign currencies associated with buyers in South Florida, a contentious presidential election season, and growing inventory (particularly in the $1 million-plus condominium market). As we enter 2017, these matters will continue to have an influence on segments of our Greater South Florida market.

We will also need to further the efforts to find viable solutions for our workforce housing affordability. The inventory levels for starter homes, particularly single-family residences, continue to be low, creating a lack of affordability for many first-time buyers. While banks are now helping to address these issues with less onerous credit standards and lower down payments, there will continue to be pressure on this particular buying group due to the shrinking availability of product.

So.... is there a bright spot as we enter the New Year? Absolutely! There are several. Unlike the Great Recession, which recorded high levels of inventory and few viable buyers, both factual and anecdotal data from our 850 real estate professionals reveal that there is a significant pent-up demand of buyers on the sidelines, especially luxury buyers -- simply waiting for today’s pricing to more closely align with their expectations of market value.

Therefore, the issue-at-hand for 2017 will be appropriate pricing. You will read much more throughout this report on the importance of taking early action in this new year to re-position the pricing of our expanding inventories, especially in the luxury markets.

Another key factor to consider is Florida’s booming population growth, which pushed Florida to be recognized as the third largest state in the country in 2014, bypassing New York. Our State is growing by just over 1,000 “net” new residents per day! The latest U.S. Census Bureau data shows that the tri-county area of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach is now the eighth-most populated metropolitan statistical area (MSA) in the nation, with the three counties comprising just over six million permanent residents, or 30% of the State’s total population of 20,612,000 residents. Of the 1,000 net new residents establishing homes in Florida each day, 200 to 300 of them are moving to the tri-county area every twenty-four hours!

We are also seeing tremendous growth in each County’s urban areas. While Miami-Dade’s Downtown/Midtown/Brickell population boom is clearly in the lead, downtown Fort Lauderdale is experiencing its own renaissance, and Palm Beach County’s downtown areas are also experiencing dramatic growth.

As the new Brightline Rail system opens service to its downtown stations in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach in the summer of 2017—making commuting more feasible—we will see a continued increase in the ‘inter-connectedness’ of the tri-county neighborhoods.

Lastly, we will continue to expand as a true international destination, with the eyes of the world still longing to have a stake in South Florida and to own property here.

These elements are the reality of a vibrant, growing area. Our EWM team looks forward to continuously serving as positive ambassadors of South Florida’s residential real estate market.

Sincerely,

Ron ShuffieldPresident & CEOEWM Realty International

SOUTH FLORIDA SETTING THE GLOBAL PACE

4 2017 REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

2017 SOUTH FLORIDA REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK KEY FACTS & FIGURESThis report provides an analysis of a number of key topics and market influencers impacting Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. While the report addresses the topics in detail, one of the key factors of rising inventory is the need to look at a two-year window in the million-dollar-plus market to fully appreciate the situation of inventory and sales. To that end, we have outlined the following key factors for each County, respectively:

Miami-Dade currently has the largest supply of million dollar-plus condominiums in history, with 2,549 available as of 12/31/16. The last time we saw such high levels of inventory was on 12/31/06 with 1,849 condos for sale – and at the very cusp of the Great Recession.

A two-year snapshot of million dollar condominiums in Miami-Dade reveals a 75% increase in inventory from December 2014 to December 2016, while single-family home inventory in excess of $1 million spiked 55% during this same period.

For all price categories market-wide, combined single-family and condominium inventory in Miami-Dade from December 2015 to December 2016 was up 14% year-over-year, while sales market-wide were down 11%.

Months of available inventory in the overall single-family home market were at 6 months as of December 2016, and 14 months in the overall condominium market. A preferable range of available inventory for a market is 6 to 9 months; therefore, single-family homes are within that range, but condominiums are much higher—a number that becomes increasingly disparate at the higher-end segment of the condominium market.

In the $1 million and under single-family home market, 2016 saw a 6% increase in inventory over 2015, while sales decreased 6%.

In the $1 million and under condominium market, inventory increased 16%, while sales decreased 16%.

The $1 million-and-over single-family home market, inventory grew 15% throughout the year, while sales were down 10%.

Months of available single-family inventory priced in excess of $1 million consistently grew throughout the year, and ended at 26 months. Noting that the ‘window’ for total optimum months of inventory traditionally grows as prices increase above $1 million (12-18 months vs. 6-9 months), the year-end 2016 numbers are obviously still quite high.

It’s the $1 million-and-over condominium market that is experiencing the biggest challenges, with year-over-year inventory up 19% and, more importantly, sales down 22%. This is on top of the large increases from 2014 to 2015, a pattern that continued from 2015 to 2016.

2016 inventory numbers sharply increased throughout the year, with months of available inventory now hovering at 55 months for condominiums priced above $1 million.

No doubt, the most compelling factor of declining sales at this price point is the exchange rate pressures from key countries, such as Brazil, Argentina, Russia and Venezuela, among others, all of which have experienced significant downward currency valuations. However, over the past few months, we have seen some encouraging news in the form of positive currency rate movement, with an increase in the value of many currencies against the U.S. dollar.

MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

5EWM REALTY INTERNATIONAL

In Broward County, the growth in inventory and decrease in sales were less pronounced than in Miami-Dade, with overall inventory down 3% for the year, while overall 2016 sales were relatively flat, down 1% from 2015.

Prior to 2016, Broward sales had been experiencing single-digit growth over the past few years. In the million-dollar-plus condominium market, though, while the inventory of these units is not nearly as pronounced in volume (Broward has about one-sixth the number of million-dollar-plus condominiums for sale as Miami-Dade), the percentage growth is actually greater, with a 23% increase in inventory from December 2015 to December 2016.

The months of available inventory in the overall single-family home market was at 4 months as of December 2016, and 6 months in the overall condominium market in that same time period.

During 2016, the median price of a single-family home leveled off at $320,000-$325,000, after five years of steady increases.

The median price of a condominium also leveled off in the second half of 2016, settling between $145,000 and $147,000.

In the $1 million and under single-family home market, 2016 noted a 13% decrease in inventory over 2015, while sales increased 1%.

In the $1 million and under condominium market, inventory remained flat, while sales decreased 3%.

In the $1 million and over single-family home market, inventory grew 13% throughout the year, while sales were down 7%.

Single-family home available months of supply was 22 months as of 12/31/16.

In the $1 million-and-over condominium market, inventory increased 23%, while sales decreased 28%.

Condo available months of supply was 29 months as of 12/31/16.

BROWARD COUNTY


The South Florida economy is expected to expand at a moderate pace this year, driven by a growing U.S. economy and the “Global Brand” of Miami as a preferred business and visitor region for the Americas.However, there are a number of key factors that suggest a slower pace of economic activity this year, especially in construction, real estate-related industries and international trade:

Once Brazil and the global economy recover from slow economic growth, Miami-Dade and the South Florida Region will resume its previously strong pace of economic growth as the fundamental attributes of the County and region are positive for long-term expansion.If the New Administration and Congress significantly lower the corporate tax rate as promised, and decrease regulations on the financial industry and others, the policy changes would be beneficial to Miami-Dade and South Florida starting late this year and into 2018.

Dr. J. Antonio VillamilFounder & PrincipalWashington Economics Group, Inc.

2017 SOUTH FLORIDA REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

SOUTH FLORIDAECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES FOR 2017PRESENTED BY WASHINGTON ECONOMICS GROUP, INC.

U.S. interest rates, as measured by the Fed Funds rate, are likely to increase 75-100 basis points by end-of-year since U.S. inflation started to increase in late 2016. FED monetary policy will tighten modestly.

Brazil, South Florida’s top trade partner, has been in recession for the past two years. A slow economic recovery is likely in 2017, accelerating in 2018.

Global economic growth remains sluggish, with BREXIT providing concerns about the U.K. and E.U. economic outlook.

A strong U.S. dollar exchange rate will continue to impact negatively exports and the purchasing power of international visitors to Miami-Dade and the State.

1234

BRAZILBRAZIL


BREXITBREXITINTEREST RATESINTEREST RATES

EXCHANGE RATESEXCHANGE RATES


Improving transit and mobility for all of our 2.7 million residents is one of Miami-Dade County’s top priorities because they affect our quality of life and our economy. Our community has andcontinues to prosper because people from all over the world would like to move to, and do business here. And as Miami-Dade continues to grow, we need to ensure that our current andfuture residents can get to where they are going faster and safer as well as that our transportation system keeps pace with increased demand. Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos A. Gimenez and the Board of County Commissioners are focused on addressing the area’s traffic issues by expanding the existing 25-mile Metrorail system along six corridors with the SMARTPlan. The SMART Plan, an acronym which stands for “Strategic Miami Area Rapid Transit,” is acomprehensive plan to expand mass transit throughout Miami- Dade.

Six rapid transit corridors have been identified in the SMART Plan, including: a Beach Corridor, East-West Corridor, Kendall Corridor, North Corridor, Northeast Corridor and the South DadeTransitway. The new transit lines are designed to directly support both the mobility and growth of our current and future population.

The SMART plan was originally developed by Miami-Dade County and later adopted by the Metropolitan Planning Organization with the goal of addressing congestion by providingalternate routes for commuters.

With the evolution of the new transit plan, real solutions to our traffic challenges will occur. A summary of the SMART Plan Rapid Transit Corridors is as follows:

· The Beach Corridor, is a proposed light rail or Metromover extension that would connect Miami Beach to the mainland along the MacArthur Causeway. The line would extend into South Beach from the Miami Beach side, and into the Midtown area and Design District on the mainland side.

· The East-West Corridor would be placed along the Dolphin Expressway, with the railsystem connecting downtown Miami to our western suburbs.

· The Kendall Corridor rail system would operate from the

Metrorail Dadeland North Station and run west down Kendall Drive to SW 162nd Avenue.

· The system’s North Corridor would extend the existing Metrorail at Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Metrorail station and run along NW 27th Avenue to NW 215th Street.

· The Northeast Corridor would run commuter trains from downtown Miami to Aventura, utilizing existing Florida East Coast Railway tracks.

· The South Dade Transitway Corridor component would convert the existing busway along U.S. 1 in South Dade into an upgrade rail system.

The goal of these corridors is to connect to the areas currently not covered by the existing Metrorail lines through a much more affordable and rapid-to-construct light-rail or at-grade system.

But, rapid transit will not be the only component of the SMART plan. The plan will include a Bus Express Road Transit (BERT) network that will also link the SMART corridors with existingMetrorail routes.

Development of a Funding for this is underway. In order to ensure the success of the SMART plan, the MPO Fiscal Priorities Committee and transportation partners are meeting routinely to discuss both the financial framework and policies necessary to further advance the plan.

The county categorizes all six transit lines as top priority and Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos A. Gimenez has given his commitment to developing a funding plan in order to make this a reality.

We are very proud of numerous individuals and agencies working in unison and diligently to provide Miami-Dade County viable solutions to its traffic challenges, and the SMART Plan isclearly a key component. Our goal is to make Miami-Dade a car optional community.

Alice N. Bravo, P.E.Director, Transportation & Public WorksMiami-Dade County


THE SMART PLANMIAMI-DADE’S TRANSPORTATION FUTUREPRESENTED BY MIAMI-DADE COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION & PUBLIC WORKS


PRESSURE TO ADJUST ASKING PRICESCANNOT BE IGNORED


The film, Field of Dreams introduced us to the phrase, “If you build it, they will come.” At EWM,

taking note of that philosophy, we believe the mantra for our market in 2017 will be, “If you price it correctly,

buyers will come.”

While appropriate pricing is achieved on a case-by-case basis, our metrics reveal that almost 40% of all sales during

2016 in the $1 million-plus residential real estate market have realized a reduction of almost 14% from original asking prices.

To that end, we have no doubt that a great driver of residential real estate sales in 2017 will be appropriate pricing.

To that point, one of the metrics we utilize in this report is our perspective on the industry’s traditional Pricing Impacts Visibility

Pyramid (see graphic). It reveals that in a market where price is the driver – in other words, a buyer’s market – the initial asking price is an absolutely crucial component of the marketing process.

As an example, let’s take a listing with a true market value of approximately $2 million. At that “appropriate” price, we estimate

that the residence will have a 60% rate of visibility among buyers who are motivated to purchase that particular type of single-family

home or condo. Increase the asking price to $2.5 million (as some sellers might be inclined to do, just to test the waters),

and you reduce the percentage of potential buyers viewing the listing to only 30%. Raise the asking price to $3.0

million, and only 10% of motivated buyers will consider the listing.

Conversely, lower the asking price of a properly priced $2 million residence to $1.9 million, and the

average percentage of potential buyers viewing the listing increases to 75%. Want to price it

to sell quickly? Lower the asking price to $1.7 million and 90% of motivated buyers are

estimated to view it.

The message is clear: proper pricing is key. The money is out there…buyers

are just waiting for the right price.

Pricing is the most critical marketing tool when selling a

home. Setting a realistic market value price on a property on

the first day will generate a faster sale.

Remember, there is only one chance

to make a first impression on the

market.

BELO

W M

ARKE

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LUE

RAN

GE

ABO

VE M

ARKE

T VA

LUE

RAN

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PRICE TOO HIGH

PRICE NEEDS ADJUSTMENT

REASONABLY PRICED

COMPETITIVELY PRICED

QUICK-SALE PRICED

MARKET VALUE RANGE

PRICING DIRECTLY IMPACTS HOW MANY BUYERS WILL CONSIDER YOUR PROPERTY



LARGEST AMOUNT OF SALESARE IN THE LOWER TIER OF THE MARKET

The high-end market generates a great deal of attention in South Florida, but the reality is that the brunt of the inventory and sales are in the $300,000 and under market. As of December 2016, for example, 29% of Miami-Dade County’s overall inventory of single-family homes and condominiums were within this price range…comprising 60% of all sales.

In Broward County, this indicator is all the more pronounced, with the $300,000 and under market accounting for 51% of the inventory of single-family homes and condominiums, and a staggering 67% of all sales.

As of December 2016, the overall $300,000 and under inventory of single-family homes in Miami-Dade – already quite depleted – shrunk an additional 22%. Total sales were understandably down to match the reduced

inventory, leaving available inventory levels in this price point at 2 months. Noting that a ‘healthy market’ is 6-9 months, this is clearly a challenging situation, particularly for first-time homebuyers.

In Broward County, the situation is even more hampered, with available inventory levels for $300,000 and under single-family homes at slightly under 2 months. Broward saw a marked decrease in inventory in this price point year-over-year, with inventory shrinking 36%.

In the $300,000 and under condominium market in Miami-Dade, inventory increased 13%, while sales decreased 15%. Months of available inventory are 6 months.In Broward County, condominium inventory decreased 6% in that price point, while sales decreased 4%, leaving months of available inventory at 5.

BRICKELL AREA

THE UNDER $300,000 MARKETG E N E R A L M A R K E T O V E R V I E W

THE UNDER $300,000 MARKETG E N E R A L M A R K E T O V E R V I E W

MIAMI-DADE COUNTYSINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

BROWARD COUNTYSINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

48%

OF TOTAL SINGLE FAMILY SALES IN MLS

1/1/2016 TO 12/31/2016Q4 2016 AVERAGE # SALES

506/PER MONTH

1%

2.2 MONTHS Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

INVENTORY ON 12/31/20161,113 UNITS

SUPPLY

12.8%

$222,667Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

MEDIAN PRICE

45%



539/PER MONTH

23%

2.0 MONTHS Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015


SUPPLY

9%

$214,667Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

MEDIAN PRICE

MIAMI-DADE COUNTYCONDOMINIUMS

BROWARD COUNTYCONDOMINIUMS

72%

OF TOTAL CONDOSALES IN MLS


744/PER MONTH

39%

6.6 MONTHS Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015


SUPPLY

10%

$168,000Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

CONDOMINIUMS

MEDIAN PRICE

87%



1.045/PER MONTH

4%

4.9 MONTHS Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015


SUPPLY

12.6%

$130,667Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

CONDOMINIUMS

MEDIAN PRICE

MONTHS OF SUPPLY INDICATOR (UNDER $1 MILLION)6-9 MONTHS · OPTIMUM SUPPLY OVER 9 MONTHS · BUYERS’ MARKETBELOW 6 MONTHS · SELLERS’ MARKET

Monitor This Number

Throughout 2017.

It’s The #1 Metric in

Real Estate.



CONTINUED EQUILIBRIUMTHE $300,000 TO $999,999 PRICE POINT

The single-family home segments within the $300,000 to $999,999 price range in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties have continued within the optimum 6-9 months of available inventory range, with both inventory levels and sales increasing year-over-year from December 2015 to December 2106. Broward’s supply actually stands at 4 months.

In Miami-Dade, single-family home inventory in that range increased 20%, but sales also increased 16%, keeping existing inventory levels at a supply of 7 months.

A price range in which both inventory and sales grew during 2016 was rare, as most segments saw increases in inventory with decreases in sales.

In Broward’s single-family home market in the $300,000 to $999,999 price range, inventory increased slightly – by 3%while sales increased by 11%. With 4 months of available inventory on the market, Broward is experiencing a shortage

in demand in single-family homes within this price point.

In Miami-Dade, condominium inventory within this price point increased 18% year-over-year, while sales decreased 18%, increasing available months of supply to 26 months. In Broward, condominium inventory in this price point increased 19%, and sales increased 2%. Months of available inventory increased to 14 months.

There are a number of new developments at, or near-completionparticularly in Miami-Dade’s Brickell/downtown corridor, with a significant volume of units within this price pointso we anticipate that condominium inventory will continue to increase into 2017. This price range just below $1 million has become a “sweet spot” for single-family home buyers within all South Florida markets, where a growing number of young professionals and empty nesters are finding home sizes and financial costs to be a good balance.

231 SALAMANCA AVE, CORAL GABLES$749,000

THE $300,000 TO $999,999 MARKETG E N E R A L M A R K E T O V E R V I E W

THE $300,000 TO $999,999 MARKETG E N E R A L M A R K E T O V E R V I E W



46%



491/PER MONTH

2%6.8 MONTHS

Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015INVENTORY ON 12/31/2016

3,349 UNITS

SUPPLY

0.9%

$393,333Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

MEDIAN PRICE

52%



623/PER MONTH

1%4.1 MONTHS


2,556 UNITS

SUPPLY

2.1%$405,000

Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

MEDIAN PRICE



24%



250/PER MONTH

54%

28.1 MONTHS Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015


SUPPLY

0.4%$420,667

Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015CONDOMINIUMS

MEDIAN PRICE

12%



140/PER MONTH

22%15.2 MONTHS


2,134 UNITS

SUPPLY

4.7%

$380,000Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

CONDOMINIUMS

MEDIAN PRICE

MONTHS OF SUPPLY INDICATOR (UNDER $1 MILLION)6-9 MONTHS · OPTIMUM SUPPLY OVER 9 MONTHS · BUYERS’ MARKETBELOW 6 MONTHS · SELLERS’ MARKET

Monitor This Number

Throughout 2017.


Real Estate.



LUXURY SNAPSHOTIt’s always easier to look back in time to report actual past sales activity than to predict future sales. In looking back over a year ago, it’s clearly evident today that the luxury market in South Florida began to retreat in August of 2015. Total sales of single-family homes and condos in Miami-Dade priced in excess of $1 million saw a 24% decrease in average monthly luxury sales during the last 5 months of 2015 compared with the first 7 months of 2015. The number of actual unit sales began dropping in the last half of 2015 (from an average of 179 units/mo. in the first 7 months of 2015 to an average of 136 units/mo. over the last 5 months of 2015) and sales remained at the reduced average monthly level of 136 units/month throughout 2016.

While combined single-family and condo luxury sales in Broward also saw a reduction in units sold after August, 2015, the percentage decrease through 2016 (15%) was less than the 24% decrease seen in Miami-Dade.

In 2015, 6% of all MLS sales in Miami-Dade were priced in excess of $1 million. This 6% represented 36% of the total dollars sold through the MLS that year. In 2016, 6% of all MLS sales were priced in excess of $1 million, totaling 33% of total MLS dollars.

In Broward, 2% of all MLS sales in 2015 were priced greater than $1 million. These sales represented 14% of the total dollars flowing through the MLS. The percentages for 2016 were 2% and 13%, respectively.

It’s encouraging that many potential luxury buyers have resumed their searches for properties since the presidential election, and are currently back in the market looking at homes again, after waiting on the sidelines for these past 16 to 17 months.

Another positive sign from 2016 was a growing number of sellers making adjustments to their asking prices. More than one-third of all sales in the million-dollar-plus category over the past six months have reflected price reductions averaging more than 14% from their original listing price.

Lastly, a few South American currencies strengthened against the U.S. Dollar during Q4 2016, which provides a little greater buying power for homes in South Florida.

20 TAHITI BEACH ISLAND$21,990,000

THE LUXURY MARKETP R O P E R T I E S I N E X C E S S O F $ 1 M I L L I O N

THE LUXURY MARKETP R O P E R T I E S I N E X C E S S O F $ 1 M I L L I O N



6.2%



65/PER MONTH

19%

25.9 MONTHS Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015


SUPPLY

6.1%

$1,588,333Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

MEDIAN PRICE

3.5%



42/PER MONTH

31%

21.8 MONTHS Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

INVENTORY ON 12/31/2016921 UNITS

SUPPLY

0.5%

$1,436,333Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

MEDIAN PRICE



4.5%



47/PER MONTH

69%

54.6 MONTHS Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015


SUPPLY

0.2%

$1,546,000Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

CONDOMINIUMS

MEDIAN PRICE

1.2%



14/PER MONTH

34%

29.7 MONTHS Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

INVENTORY ON 12/31/2016426 UNITS

SUPPLY

7.6%

$1,323,333Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

CONDOMINIUMS

MEDIAN PRICE

MONTHS OF SUPPLY INDICATOR (OVER $1 MILLION)12-18 MONTHS · OPTIMUM SUPPLY OVER 18 MONTHS · BUYERS’ MARKETBELOW 12 MONTHS · SELLERS’ MARKET

Monitor This Number

Throughout 2017.


Real Estate.



A DIVERGING MARKET$1 MILLION TO $1.999 MILLION

It is within this price range that Miami-Dade and Broward Counties begin to dramatically diverge in the ratio of available single-family homes to condominiums.

In Miami-Dade, condominium supply in this price range is almost twice that of single-family homes; while in Broward, it is almost the exact opposite, with many more single-family homes in this price range than condominiums.

In any case, both Counties have seen an increase in supply and a reduction in sales for both condominiums and single-family homes.

In Miami-Dade, condominium inventory in this price range increased 22% year-over-year, while sales dropped 21%, creating a 47-month supply. This is one of the key ranges where sellers will need to address price adjustments in order to increase demand.

Single-family homes in this price range have also seen significant increases in supply – 24% – while sales have

decreased 7%. There are now 20 months of supply within the single-family home market in this price point.

In Broward, which has approximately one-third the inventory of Miami-Dade in this price point (and single-family homes vastly outnumber condominiums), the changes have not been as dramatic; but nonetheless, inventory has increased and sales have decreased. As of December 2016, single-family home inventory in Broward increased 16%, while condominium inventory increased 22%.

There are now 17 months of single-family home inventory in this price range, and 24 months of condominium supply.

While the number of months’ supply has increased sharply for single-family homes valued between $1 million and $2 million in Broward County, the distribution of the inventory across the County varies, still providing pockets of balanced supply.

5660 COLLINS AVE #9B, MIAMI BEACH$1,680,000

THE $1 MILLION TO $1.999 MILLION MARKETG E N E R A L M A R K E T O V E R V I E W




3.8%



40/PER MONTH

28%19.8 MONTHS


791 UNITS

SUPPLY

2.5%

$1,266,667Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

MEDIAN PRICE

2.5%



30/PER MONTH

45%16.6 MONTHS


492 UNITS

SUPPLY

4.6%$1,295,000


MEDIAN PRICE



2.8%



29/PER MONTH

80%46.9 MONTHS


1,376 UNITS

SUPPLY

0.2%$1,300,333


MEDIAN PRICE

1.1%



13/PER MONTH

13%23.5 MONTHS


306 UNITS

SUPPLY

0.8%

$1,315,000Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

CONDOMINIUMS

MEDIAN PRICE


Monitor This Number

Throughout 2017.


Real Estate.



INVENTORY CONTINUES TO CLIMB$2 MILLION TO $4.999 MILLION

At the $2 million and higher price point, in both Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, inventories have continued to see increases.

Miami-Dadewhich has almost four times the total inventory of Broward in this price pointhas 27 months of supply of single-family homes, and 58 months of condominium supply. While available months of supply at this price point are expected to be higher than the overall real estate market, these are still very high numbers

particularly among condominiums. Miami-Dade 2016 single-family and condo sales in this price range declined 14% and 24%, respectively, compared to 2015.

In Broward, there is a 32-month supply of single-family homes – which is even harder to gauge in the condominium market, as there were only 4 condo sales in the last quarter of 2016 compared to 11 sales in the last quarter of 2015. The slowdown in the over $2 million condo sales has resulted in a current inventory supply of 76 months.

12351 ROCK GARDEN LANE, PINECREST$3,599,000





2.1%



22/PER MONTH

1%27.1 MONTHS


587 UNITS

SUPPLY

0.5%

$2,795,000Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

MEDIAN PRICE

0.9%



10/PER MONTH

1%32.2 MONTHS


333 UNITS

SUPPLY

0.7%$2,525,000


MEDIAN PRICE



1.4%



15/PER MONTH

33%58.3 MONTHS


855 UNITS

SUPPLY

10.5%$2,558,333


MEDIAN PRICE

0.1%



1/PER MONTH

239%75.8 MONTHS


101 UNITS

SUPPLY

11.6%

$2,575,000Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

CONDOMINIUMS

MEDIAN PRICE


Monitor This Number

Throughout 2017.


Real Estate.



THE IMPACT ON THE ULTRA HIGH-END$5 MILLION AND HIGHER

The ultra-high-end market of properties priced in excess of $5 million has been dramatically impacted by the steep increase in inventories and decrease in sales over the past 2 years, leading up to the start of 2017. In Miami-Dade County, the inventory of single-family homes priced in excess of $5 million increased 32% over the past 2 years, with the total available number of homes for sale on December 31, 2016 equaling 295 properties. Sales for Q4 2016 equaled 8 properties, compared with 15 sales during the same period in 2015, a decrease in sales year-over-year of 47%. With an average of 2.67 sales per month, the remaining months of supply for single-family homes equaled 9 years. In comparison, condo inventory in Miami-Dade priced over $5 million averaged 2 sales per month during Q4 2016, yielding a supply of 9 years also. While still over-supplied, the 48 months of available inventory for single-family homes for sale in Broward

County priced in the $5 million+ range fared better than homes of that value in Miami-Dade County. Condo sales in Broward were virtually non-existent, where there was only one unit sold in 2016 in excess of $5 million. With 19 condos currently available for sale in Broward, there is a 19-year supply! After monitoring the level of activity in both Counties for the past 24 months, it is clearly apparent that the sales that have been happening are those properties which are well located and well priced. Again, the theme for selling in 2017 will be appropriate pricing. There are more potential buyers for this uber price range than is realized; however, these buyers are often second, third or fourth-home buyers and are motivated more by value than the need to purchase quickly.

6466 N BAY ROAD, MIAMI BEACH$25,500,000

THE $5 MILLION & HIGHER MARKETG E N E R A L M A R K E T O V E R V I E W

THE $5 MILLION & HIGHER MARKETG E N E R A L M A R K E T O V E R V I E W



0.3%



3/PER MONTH

107%110.6 MONTHS


295 UNITS

SUPPLY

27.9%

$5,883,333Q4 2016 VS. Q4 2015

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

MEDIAN PRICE

0.2%



2/PER MONTH

32%48 MONTHS


96 UNITS

SUPPLY

15.6%$7,765,000


MEDIAN PRICE



0.3%



3/PER MONTH

124%106 MONTHS


318 UNITS

SUPPLY

9.9%$4,441,667


MEDIAN PRICE

0.0%



0/PER MONTH

36%228 MONTHS


19 UNITS

SUPPLY

0%NO SALES

REPORTED Q4 2016CONDOMINIUMS

MEDIAN PRICE


Monitor This Number

Throughout 2017.


Real Estate.



THE FOREIGN BUYERON THE SIDELINES

While we have noted within this report that there have been positive signs over these past few months relataing to the strengthening of some foreign currencieshopefully bringing additional international buyers to South Florida in 2017 and 2018the reality is that it will take time to resolve the complexities of these currency issues.

As in previous reports, EWM’s research team has compared how the currency rates have impacted foreign buyers from 12 global markets that are key to South Florida. The study has revealed that, when comparing December 2007 to December 2016, 10 of the 12 currencies have been moderately to severely impacted.

Argentina and Venezuela – key buyers – have been affected the most. For example, a South Florida home or condo an Argentinian could have purchased in 2007 for $1 million would cost more than $4.5 million in equivalent Argentine pesos today.

Following that example, when comparing a home or condo purchase in 2007 or 2016 to a purchase in 2017, the exchange rate differences can cast a very different light on each transaction.

MONTE CARLO, MONACO

ARG

ENTI

NA

40

3.4%

CAN

AD

A

36.9

%

COLO

MBI

A

49.6

%

EURO

PEA

N U

NIO

N

39.8

% M

EXIC

O

90.0

%

PERÚ

13.9

%

BRA

ZIL

79.5

%

GRE

AT B

RITA

IN45

.7%

RUSS

IA14

9.5%

VEN

EZU

ELA

365.

4%

CHIN

A5%

JAPA

N4.

5%

% MORE EXPENSIVE

% LESS EXPENSIVE

EFFECT OF CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES ON FOREIGN BUYERS IN SOUTH FLORIDAHOW MUCH MORE OR LESS EXPENSIVE SOUTH FLORIDA REAL ESTATE IS BASED ON THEIR HOME COUNTRY CURRENCY

DECEMBER 2007 VS. DECEMBER 2016(9 YEARS)

ARG

ENTI

NA

23

.9%

CAN

AD

A

3.1%

COLO

MBI

A

4.8%

MEX

ICO

19

.6%

PERÚ

0.3%

BRA

ZIL

17.8

%

GRE

AT B

RITA

IN20

.0%

RUSS

IA16

.4%

VEN

EZU

ELA

58.1

%

CHIN

A7.

0%

JAPA

N2.

8%DECEMBER 2015 VS. DECEMBER 2016

(PAST YEAR)

% MORE EXPENSIVE

% LESS EXPENSIVE

EURO

PEA

N U

NIO

N

3.7%



THE VALUE OF LUXURYHOW SOUTH FLORIDA COMPARES

MO

NTE

CARLO

$4,349/SFPA

RIS

$1,147/SF

LON

DO

N $2,348/SF

FRAN

KFURT $521/SFTO

RO

NTO $515/SF

NEW

Y

ORK $2,089/SF

SAO

P

AULO $405/SF

MIA

MI $

475/SF

FT. L

AU

DE

RDALE $410/SF MIAMI BEACH $760/SF

VALUE OF A 1,291 SF URBAN CONDO IN USDMonte CarloHong KongLondonNew YorkSingaporeTokyoMoscowParisGenevaSydneyBeijingStockholmMiami BeachRomeFrankfurtTorontoMiamiFort LauderdaleSao Paulo

$5,615,148$3,064,534$3,031,088$2,696,444$1,731,064$1,658,142$1,496,548$1,480,531$1,263,729$1,225,166$1,028,549$1,027,525

$981,160$800,992$672,097$664,935$613,225$529,310$522,855


WORLDWIDE AVERAGE SQUARE FOOT PRICES IN US DOLLARSUrban Apartment: 120 m2 (1,291 SF)

Based On Currency Exchange Rates As of December 31, 2016

HO

NG

KO

NG $2,374/SF

SINGAPORE $1,341/SF

TOKYO $1,284/SF

MOSCOW $1,159/SF

ROME $620/SF

GENEVA $979/SF

SYDNEY $949/SF

BEIJ

IN

G $797/SF

STOCKHOLM $796/SF

Sources: www.globalpropertyguide.com, Southeast Florida Regional MLS.Data based on: 2014 and 2015 average per square meter (sq. m.) prices in US$ of 120-sq. m. apartments located in the centre of the most important city of each country, either the: Administrative capital and/or Financial capital and/or the centre of the rental market



THE DOMESTIC BUYER’SINTEREST IN SOUTH FLORIDA GROWSIn 2016, the balance between the domestic buyer and the international buyer changed due to wavering economic conditions in much of the world. As a result, a greater portion of the total sales in South Florida has moved to the domestic buyer side of the scale.

So what draws them here? The first and primary reason is our weather. South Florida’s temperatures live in a narrow zone, with average monthly winter lows in the low 60’s and average summer highs in the low 90 degrees. This climate makes for great year-round beach weather, a refreshing reprieve for northerners.

The second draw is transportation. The Brightline will revolutionize regional transit in South and Central Florida, and our airports and seaports give residents access to hundreds of destinations across the globe, all within hours.

Lastly, it’s the diversity and stability of South Florida’s people, places, and cultural offerings....such as our museums, fine art and performing arts, as well as our sports and entertainment venues. An added bonus is South Florida’s palatable housing prices when compared to other global cities, and a growing employment center for tech, healthcare, trade and logistics and tourism... making South Florida a place of economic opportunity, as well as a fun place to live and visit!

NEW YORK’S CENTRAL PARK


GAIN OF 1,000+

750-999

500-749

250-499

1-249

LOSS OF 1-150

U.S. “NET” PERSON GAINS (LOSSES) PER DAY BY STATEPER U.S. CENSUS BUREAU ESTIMATES AS OF JULY 1, 2016

TX +1,186

OK +44NM +2AZ +311

CA +702

UT +166CO +251

ID +83

OR +189

MT +29 ND +3

NE +37

HI +9

KS +2

IA +35

MN +103

WI +30

MO +46

AR +28

LA +35

MI +29

IL -103

PA -21

NY -5

ME +6

OH +25ID +56

KY +34

TN +154

MS -2 AL +26 GA +304

WV -27-27-27-27-27VA +121

NC +306

SC +182

NV +154

WA +350

SD +21

AK +11

WY -3

FL +1,007

CT -23DC +30DE +22MA +75MD +59NH +13RI +2VT -4

NET GAINS (LOSSES) PER DAY IN PERSONS

NO 2017 STATE INCOME TAX

Only 7 U.S. States Do Not Have A State Income Tax. The Remaining 44 States (Including Washington D.C.) Have A Graduated State Income Tax, With The Highest Bracket Ranging From 3.07% To 13.30%.

FACT

2017

SO

UT

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LOR

IDA

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AL

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UT

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Ave

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a (M

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$1,

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953

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$31

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1,52

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50.8

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ur (M

C 12

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-26.

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$32

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28-9

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257

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ds (M

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(MC

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(MC

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orta

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%CH

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R 20

15

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ian

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eSh

own

In (S

,000

’s)M

edia

n Pr

ice

Show

n In

(S,0

00’s)

2017

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UT

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IDA

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ES

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NTY

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2.4

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476.

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540

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FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH AT SUNRISE



CONFIDENCEIN THE OVERALL MARKET

The State of Florida is recognized world-wide today as a young and

exciting place to invest assets and personal futures. Florida’s population in

1980 was 10 million permanent residents. Today, it’s rapidly moving toward 21 million. Florida is currently the third most populous

State in the nation, following only California (39 million) and Texas (28 million). 27% of the total

permanent residents of the United States now live in just these 3 states!

South Florida, with Miami as the globally recognized brand, drives the discussion and energy throughout the region of the Americas. We are fortunate to live and work in a place

which has been blessed with a wonderful climate and physical beauty... and most of all -- a diverse cultural base -- which today

allows our residents and frequent visitors to experience the benefits of a global lifestyle...all from within one geographic location,

which we are fortunate to call ‘home’.

Through the combined hard work and passionate efforts of our fellow South Floridians over these past two decades, our region is now viewed alongside

other great cities and regions of the world. While we have many reasons to feel proud of who we have become as a community, there are still many opportunties

that lay ahead for us.

The foundation of any growing community is its real estate base…both residentially and commercially. It’s gratifying to witness the world’s approval of what we have conceived,

designed and built together over these past short years. We have not only built tangible value for ourselves, but intangible value for our families and others whom will come behind us. The future

ahead of us is filled with exciting opportunities.

If we collectively build it, they will come.....


ewm.com

ALHAMBRA | 305.960.2500

AVENTURA | 305.329.4900

BRICKELL | 305.329.7600

COCONUT GROVE | 305.960.5300

CORAL GABLES-SOUTH MIAMI | 305.960.2400

KEY BISCAYNE | 305.960.5350

LAS OLAS | 954.306.7400

MIAMI BEACH | 305.674.4000

PINECREST-PALMETTO BAY | 305.960.2600

WESTON TOWN CENTER | 954.306.7200

© 2016 EWM REALTY INTERNATIONAL. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THIS REPRESENTATION IS BASED ON HISTORICAL DATA SUPPLIED BY THE MIAMI ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, THE GREATER FORT LAUDERDALE ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MLS. DATA SHOWN REFLECTS STATISTICS AND FIGURES FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING JANUARY 1 2016 AND ENDING DECEMBER 31, 2016 FOR SINGLE-FAMILY AND CONDOMINIUM SALES IN MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES.

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®

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Documents

MIAMI-DADE & BROWARD COUNTIESsarah-friedman.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/EWM...Miami-Dade from December 2015 to December 2016 was up 14% year-over-year, while sales market-wide were