Michael B. Ek 1, Youlong Xia 1,2, and NLDAS team* 1
Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), NCEP, College Park, MD 2 IMSG
at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, Maryland *NLDAS team: Collaboration
scientists from EMC, CPC, NESDIS, NWS/OHD, NASA/GSFC, USDA,
Princeton Univ., Univ. Washington Interagency Steering Committee on
Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM), 25- 26 February 2014,
Washington, DC. Slide 2 1. NLDAS Configuration 2. NLDAS
Drought/Flooding Analysis, Monitoring, and Application 3.
Evaluation/Validation of NLDAS Products 4. Objective/Optimal Blends
of NLDAS Drought Indices - An Initiative Indices - An Initiative 5.
Summary and Future Work Slide 3 1. NLDAS Configuration
Acknowledgments: NLDAS project was supported by NOAA/OGP GAPP
Program, NASA Terrestrial Hydrology Program, NOAA/CPO CPPA Program
(Climate Program of the Americas), and NOAA/CPO MAPP Program
(Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections). Slide 4 NLDAS
Collaboration Partners NLDAS Development NCEP/EMC: Michael Ek,
Youlong Xia, Jiarui Dong, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei Princeton
University: Eric Wood, Justin Sheffield, Ming Pan NASA/GSFC:
Christa Peters-Lidard, David Mocko NWS/OHD: Victor Koren, Brian
Cosgrove University of Washington: Dennis Lettenmaier, Ben Livneh
NLDAS Products Application NCEP/CPC: Li-Chuan Chen, Kingtse Mo
USDA: Eric Luebhusen, U.S. Drought Monitor Author Group NASA/GSFC:
Hualan Rui, Guang-Di Lou NCEP/EMC: Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng NLDAS
Input Data Support NCEP/CPC: Ming-Yue Chen, Wesley Ebisuzaki,
NCEP/EMC: Ying Lin Slide 5 NLDAS is a multi-model land modeling and
data assimilation system NLDAS is a multi-model land modeling and
data assimilation system run in uncoupled mode driven by
atmospheric forcing run in uncoupled mode driven by atmospheric
forcing (using surface meteorology data sets) with long-term
retrospective and near real-time output of with long-term
retrospective and near real-time output of land-surface water and
energy budgets. Slide 6 NLDAS Data Sets and Setup Slide 7
www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas NLDAS Drought Monitor NLDAS Drought
Prediction Anomaly and percentile for six variables and three time
scales: Soil moisture, snow water, runoff, streamflow, evaporation,
precipitation Current, Weekly, Monthly NCEP/EMC NLDAS website Slide
8 Distribution of NLDAS Products NCEP/EMC NLDAS Website EMC public
sever ldas3 and nomad6 NASA NLDAS Website NASA GES DISC System The
user can subset NLDAS datasets by region and/or by variable using
the GES DISC's Mirador search tool (hourly, monthly) Mirador Slide
9 2. NLDAS Drought/Flooding Analysis, Monitoring, and Application
Acknowledgments: NLDAS project was supported by NOAA/OGP GAPP
Program, NASA Terrestrial Hydrology Program, NOAA/CPO CPPA Program
(Climate Program of the Americas), and NOAA/CPO MAPP Program
(Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections). Slide 10 Ek et
al., GEWEX News, 2011 NLDAS Drought Monitor Default Plots Soil
Moisture Total Runoff RoutedStreamflow ET Slide 11 8 June 1988
Drought year June 1988 Drought year Slide 12 Slide 13 Four-model
ensemble mean total column soil moisture percentile (January 2010
February 2014) Slide 14 NLDAS Flood Monitoring Ensemble mean daily
streamflow anomaly (m 3 /s) Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee
20 August 17 September 2011 Slide 15 NLDAS Flood Monitoring
Ensemble mean daily streamflow anomaly (m 3 /s) Superstorm Sandy 29
October 04 November 2012 Slide 16 NLDAS Flood Monitoring Ensemble
mean daily streamflow anomaly (m 3 /s) Colorado Front Range
Flooding September 2013 Slide 17 Application NLDAS Products in USDM
NLDAS GIS data (soil moisture and total runoff for daily, weekly,
and monthly) are an integral part of the USDM process, both
operationally and also as part of a weekly ppt sent to the USDM
Listserv. Shading area is NLDAS product, contour line is US drought
monitor boundary Slide 18 Application of NLDAS Products in USDA
Effect of dryness and wetness on cotton Slide 19 NLDAS Support for
NCEP/CPC Drought Monitoring and Assessment Activity NLDAS products
directly fit in Slide 20 3. Evaluation/Validation of NLDAS Products
Acknowledgments: NLDAS project was supported by NOAA/OGP GAPP
Program, NASA Terrestrial Hydrology Program, NOAA/CPO CPPA Program
(Climate Program of the Americas), and NOAA/CPO MAPP Program
(Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections). Slide 21 NLDAS
Evaluation and Validation Energy flux validation from tower: net
radiation, sensible heat, latent heat, ground heat (Xia et al.,
2012a, NLDAS book chapter, in press) Water flux: evaporation, total
runoff/streamflow State variables: soil moisture, soil temperature
(Xia et al., 2012b, JAMC, in press), skin temperature, snow water
equivalent, snow cover Monthly streamflow anomaly correlation over
continental United States (1979-2007 USGS measured streamflow)
Ensemble Mean JGR, Xia et al., 2012a, 2012b Xia et al., 2014a:
Evaluation of Multi-Model Simulated Soil Moisture in NLDAS-2, J.
Hydrology, in press. Slide 22 4. Objective/Optimal Blends of NLDAS
Drought Indices - An Initiative Ensemble-mean Monthly Percentile
(NLDAS drought Indices) using: - Top 1m soil moisture (SM1) - Total
column soil moisture (SMT) - Evapotranspiration (ET) - Total runoff
(Q) To support CPC Experimental Objective Blends of Drought
Indicators
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/tools/edb/droughtblends.php
Slide 23 US Drought Monitor and its Statistics Percentile Drought
area percentage for each state Drought Classification Drought
Classification (1) (2) (3) (4) Percentile Slide 24 Evaluation of
Optimal Blended NLDAS Drought Index in Texas 5 Drought Categories:
D0-D4, D1-D4, D2-D4,D3-D4, D4-D4 JGR-Atmosphere, Xia et al, 2014b
Texas Drought USDM NLDAS Blend Slide 25 2011-2012 Drought
Variation: Monthly Animation Optimal Blended NLDAS Drought Index vs
USDM 2011 USDM NLDAS - OBNDI generally captures USDM drought area
percent, though sample size small for severe droughts. -
Reconstructed drought index reproducible and can be used as a
reference dataset. Slide 26 GRACE-based ground water storage NLDAS
simulation Land Data Information (LIS) developed by NASA
ESI-Evaporative Stress Index VegDRI Vegetation Drought Index SPI
Standard Precipitation index PDI Palmer Drought Index PDSI Palmer
Drought Severity Index include snowpack (seasonal lag) 2012b Slide
27 NLDAS Past, Present, and Future Past: Phase 1 (2000-2005) to
establish NLDAS configuration, model evaluation framework, and
collaboration partners. Phase 2 (2006-2010) to make long-term (30
years) retrospective NLDAS run using the improved forcing and
upgraded models, to establish a quasi-operational NLDAS system to
support NIDIS activities, and to assess NLDAS products using
observations. Monitoring Mode Present: Phase 3 (2011-2014) to
maintain a quasi-operational NLDAS system, to transition all codes
and scripts to NCEP central computer system, and to implement NLDAS
system into NCEP operation. Slide 28 NLDAS Past, Present, and
Future Future: EMC Land group will maintain two NLDAS systems:
operational version (current ) and research version. Any upgrades
from both forcing and land models from research community will be
quickly implemented to the research version to make an internal
test on EMC local server and/or NCEP WCOSS computer. EMC Land group
will collaborate NASA/GSFC to install their Land Information System
(LIS) for NLDAS to construct a real data assimilation system to
assimilate observed data from both in-situ and remote sensing. EMC
Land group will collaborate with NWS/OHD to extend a fine scale (~4
km) NLDAS system to support U.S. operational flood and drought
monitoring and prediction. Monitoring Mode Slide 29 NLDAS Past,
Present, and Future Prospective: EMC Land group will extend the
NLDAS system from NLDAS domain to whole north America. The purpose
is to support for North American Drought Monitor. EMC Land group
will collaborate NCEP/CPC and the other NLDAS partners to further
extend NLDAS system from whole north America to the globe to
support Global Drought Monitor being initiated by multi-countries
as EMC is generating its LIS- GLDAS product. EMC Land group will
collaborate with its partners to improve land surface models
(physics) and test the role of NLDAS initial conditions in coupled
models for weather and climate predictions. Monitoring Mode An
ongoing work from Jesse Meng of EMC Land-Hydrology Group Slide 30
References Ek, M.B., Y. Xia, E.F. Wood, J. Sheffield, L. Luo, D.
Lettemaier, and NLDAS team, 2011: North American Land Data
Assimilation Phase 2 (NLDAS-2): Development and Applications, GEWEX
news, 21, 6-7. Xia, Y., 2007: Calibration of LaD Model in the
Northeast of the United States Using Observed Annual streamflow, J.
Hydrometeo., 8, 1098-1110. Xia, Y., K.E. Mitchell, M.B. Ek, J.
Sheffield, B. Cosgrove, and NLDAS team, 2012a: Continental-scale
water and energy flux analysis and validation for the North
American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS-2):
1. Intercomparison and application of model products, J. Geophys.
Res., 117, D03109, doi:10.1029/2011JD016048. Xia, Y., K.E.
Mitchell, M.B Ek, B. Cosgrove, J. Sheffield, and NLDAS team, 2012b:
Continental-scale water and energy flux analysis and validation for
North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2
(NLDAS-2): 2. Validation of model-simulated streamflow, J. Geophys.
Res., 117, D03110, doi:10.1029/2011JD016051. Xia, Y., M. EK, J.
Sheffield, B. Livneh, M. Huang, H. Wei, S. Feng, L. Luo, J. Meng,
and E. Wood, 2013a: Validation of Noah-simulated Soil temperature
in the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2. J.
Appl. Meteor. Climatol. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-12- 033.1. Xia, Y., B.
Cosgrove, M. B. Ek, J. Sheffield, L. Luo, E. F. Wood, K. Mo, and
NLDAS team, 2013b: Overview of North American Land Data
Assimilation System, Chapter 11 in Land Data Observation, Modeling
and Assimilation, edited by Liang et al., World Scientific,
335-376. Xia, Y., J. Sheffield, M. B. Ek, J. Dong, N. Chaney, H.
Wei, J. Meng, and E. F. Wood, 2014a, Evaluation of Multi-Model
Simulated Soil Moisture in NLDAS-2, J. Hydrology, in press. Xia,
Y., M.B. Ek, C. Peters-Lidard, D. Mocko, M. Svboda, J. Sheffield,
and E.F. Wood, 2014b: Application of USDM Statistics in NLDAS-2:
Objectively Blended NLDAS drought Index over the Continental United
States, J. Geophys. Res., 119, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020994, in press.
Xia, Y., M. Ek, D. Mocko, C. Peters-Lidard, J. Sheffield, J. Dong,
and E. Wood, 2014c: Uncertainties, Correlations, and Optimal Blends
of Drought Indices from the NLDAS Multiple Land Surface Model
Ensemble. J. Hydrometeor., 15, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-13-058.1, in
press. Slide 31 Comments and Suggestions to the following
scientists: [email protected] [email protected] LDAS (NLDAS,
HRAP-NLDAS, GLDAS): [email protected]@noaa.gov NLDAS
EMC: [email protected], NLDAS NASA: [email protected],
HRAP-NLDAS EMC: [email protected], GLDAS EMC:
[email protected] [email protected]@nasa.gov
[email protected]@[email protected]@nasa.gov
[email protected]@noaa.gov NOAA NLDAS Website
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/ NASA NLDAS Website
http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/nldas /
