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Michael Dunlop, P Ryan, H Parris, R Wise, R Gorddard, M Colloff, …
CLIMATE LAND & WATER
Adaptation PathwaysRe-thinking conservation in the face of transformational climate change
Conservation Council ACT Region – September 2015
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1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090Year
Mea
n Gl
obal
War
min
g (
°C) MEP2030
A1FI-GaRMEP2010 (Overshoot)
Recovery
Stabilisation
Runaway
Stafford Smith et al. 2011
Completely different
Not much difference
Ferrier et al. 2012
20302070
Change(“Climate mitigation”)
Future - preferred
Future - undesired
Current state
1. Magnitude of ecological impacts
Reduce loss
Resilience
2. Uncertainty in the detail of ecological changes
Future 1 - preferred Future 1 -
undesired
Current state
Future 2 - preferred Future 2 -
undesired
Future 3 - preferred Future 3 -
undesired
People experience and value different dimensions of biodiversity
• Species: types and variety of life
• Ecosystems: quality, function and services
• Landscapes: amount of nature
3. Explicitly consider multiple valued dimensions of biodiversity
Conservation objectives workshop7 |
Climate-ready framingStrategies must accommodate:1. Large magnitude of ecological change, and significant loss. 2. Considerable uncertainty in the detail of ecological changes.3. Different impacts on multiple valued aspects of biodiversity.
Climate-ready = accommodate 1, 2, 3 … and move away from the static equivalents
Conservation objectives workshop8 |
Review of strategic conservation documents• 26 documents• International, National, State, Regional, Local, NGO
Case studies • Four agencies• Decision making• Barriers and enablers
Sample the climate readiness ofAustralian conservation as a whole.
Are our current approaches conservation climate ready?
Current approach
Environmental changeNow Future
Future approach
Adaptation
Conservation objectives workshop10 |
Prototype climate-ready objectives
1. Reduce species extinction, as species populations change in abundance and distribution
2. Maintain ecosystem health, as ecosystems change in type, composition, structure, function
3. Maintain a balance between human and natural processes in landscapes, as types of ecosystems and land/water uses change
Need refining
Current approach
AdaptationEnvironmental changeNow Future
Future approach
Current approach
Adaptation
Environmental and social change
Now Future
Future approachAdaptation
Adaptation
Adaptation pathway
Values
RulesKnowledge
Challenges for adapting conservationAdaptation in undertaken by people, in agencies with multiple incentives and mandates, supported by the communityConcepts and language are challengingSignificant ecological, social and institutional innovation: Robust
concepts, that reflect value, and readily codified Ecosystem and Landscapes:
• What aspects are valued (separating inevitable change)?• How do we measure (and predict) them? • How do we incentivise their conservation?
