Michigan Department of Corrections · Michigan Department of Corrections Prison Commitment Rate* * The prison commitment rate is the percentage of all felony court dispositions that

Michigan

Department of Corrections

Trends in Key Indicators

Through December 2019

(Data as of 1/22/2020)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021

Total Prisoner Population* Prison Commitments**

*Includes Community Residential Programs (CRP - Halfway Houses) prisoners when appropriate.**Prison Commitments includes Additional Sentence Imposed Commitments for existing prisoners.

Historical Perspective: Nearly 9 decades of Year End Prisoner Populations

and Commitments

2

*Includes Community Residential Programs (CRP - Halfway Houses) prisoners when appropriate.**Prison Commitments includes Additional Sentence Imposed Commitments for existing prisoners.

Michigan Department of Corrections

Historical Prisoner Population and Commitments

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021

Total Prisoner Population* Prison Commitments**

31,000

32,000

33,000

34,000

35,000

36,000

37,000

38,000

39,000

40,000

41,000

42,000

43,000

44,000

45,000

46,000

47,000

48,000

49,000

50,000

51,000

52,000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mo

nth

ly P

op

ula

tio

n

Start of Year


ACTUAL PRISON POPULATION SINCE 1991

Historical Perspective: More recently, after growth of 20,000+ inmates in 16

years, the population has declined 13,501 inmates in 13 years.

51,554March 2007

----------------Peak Population

3

38,053December 2020

----------------Down to

1995 prison levels*

*And mid-1992 total prisoner population levels whenMichigan had halfway houses (CRP)

54,48255,545 56,155

59,35760,177

58,113

55,592

53,422

50,862 50,641 50,81749,201

47,480 47,347 46,68445,626

44,177

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Total Felony Court Dispositions (Offenders)

Front End Indicators: After peaking in 2007, annual felony court dispositions

continue to decline for the twelfth year.

4

21.9%

20.3%20.9%

21.7%

20.7%

19.4% 19.3%

20.3% 20.2%20.7%

21.6% 21.7% 21.5%21.0%

19.7%20.0%

19.6%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Prison Commitment Rate*

* The prison commitment rate is the percentage of all felony court dispositions that are sentenced to prison.* The prison commitment rate is the percentage of all felony court dispositions that are sentenced to prison.

5

Front End Indicators: The prison commitment rate continues to remain in a

narrow, 19-22%, range since 2003.

48,19047,620

50,599

52,597

50,570 50,717

53,992

55,605 55,17154,581

53,375 53,87254,854

57,23057,899

58,497

52,893

49,176

47,52846,812

45,219 44,99144,089

43,098

41,526

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Year-End Probation Population

6

Front End Indicators: The felony probation population has declined by 29%

since the peak in 2010.

3,333

3,479

4,228

3,706

3,494 3,481

3,643

3,359

2,850

2,632

2,481 2,507

2,6342,705

2,556

2,405

2,2492,169

2,073

1,933

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Probation Violator Intake*

*Includes probation technical violators and probationers with a new sentence.

7

Front End Indicators: Probation violator intake has decreased 54% since 2002.

9,169

9,5849,424

8,809 8,922

9,610

11,050

10,311

9,811

10,241

11,094

10,705

9,715

9,2959,158

8,7568,882

9,2378,983

8,664

8,085

7,695 7,592

7,140

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Prison Intake*

*Includes new court commitments, probation violators (technical or new sentence), parole violators new sentence, and escapee new sentence.

8

Front End Indicators: Since 2006 annual prison intake has decreased 36% to levels not

seen since before 1987.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Prison Intake by Cumulative Minimum Term in Months

0-12 13-24 25-60 61+ (incl. life)

9

Length of Sentence: Since 2013, the intake decline has been in the 0-12 and 13-24

month min term groups while the 25 month and up min terms have remained fairly stable.

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Percent of Prison Intake by Cumulative Minimum Term in Months

0-12 13-24 25-60 61+ (incl. life)

10

Length of Sentence: As a proportion of intake, the shift has been from the 0-12 month min

terms to the 25 month and up groups with 13-24 months remaining stable.

47.046.1

48.949.9 49.2 48.7

50.148.7 48.7

50.148.7

44.042.6

44.0

41.943.2

42.2

44.1 43.7

45.4

49.648.6

47.5

49.9

51.7 52.251.4

53.354.7 54.9

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Prison Intake by Average Cumulative Minimum Term in Months

11

Length of Sentence: The decline of shorter minimum terms and proportional shift to longer

terms shows in the growth of the average minimum term.

*Excludes Intake for Life terms

Prison Intake Comparison by Crime Groups

12

Involving

Death

5%

Sexual

Offense

13%

Other

Assaultive

30%

Other

Non-Assaultive

35%

Drug

17%

2019

Involving

Death

4%

Sexual

Offense

10%

Other

Assaultive

28%

Other

Non-Assaultive

44%

Drug

14%

2007

Average Cumulative Minimum Term:3.7 years


Involving

Death

5%

Sexual

Offense

13%

Other

Assaultive

30%

Other

Non-Assaultive

35%

Drug

17%

Intake(2019)

Prison Intake & Population by Crime Groups

Involving

Death

22%

Sexual

Offenses

20%Other

Assaultive

34%

Other

Non-Assaultive

16%

Drug

8%

Population

(12/31/2019)

13



Other

Non-Assaultive

23%

Drug

9%

Assaultive

68%(includes

Involving Death and Sexual Offenses)

2007 Peak Prison Population

Prison Population Comparison by Crime Groups

Involving

Death

22%

Sexual

Offenses

20%Other

Assaultive

34%

Other

Non-Assaultive

16%

Drug

8%

Current

Population (12/31/2019)

14



68.2%

64.6%

61.1%

63.3%

57.4%

55.0%

57.9%

55.3%

51.3% 51.5%

47.3% 47.7%48.4%

51.8% 51.5%

54.7%

51.7%52.5%

58.1%

62.4%

55.9%

65.5% 65.0%

67.6%

65.1%

68.0%

71.2%72.2%

71.5%72.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Parole Approval Rate

15

Length of Sentence: The parole rate hovers at record highs, as first hearing prisoners

become prepared to successfully reenter society before parole board review.

17,597 17,67317,225

20,03720,460

21,568

22,255

23,74724,109

23,583

20,915

21,902

23,770

22,164

26,752

21,800

17,110

15,847 16,02015,593 15,604

14,84814,586

12,668 12,455

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Parole Board Decisions

16

Impact on Releases: As prisoners are better prepared for society and approvals at their first

parole hearing increase, the need for subsequent and overall hearings declines.

Pre-ERD

60%

Life

9%

Post-ERD

23%

PVT 8%

2007 Peak Prison Population

Status of Earliest Release Date (ERD)

17

Pre-ERD

74%

Life

13%

Post-ERD

9%

PVT

4%

Current

Population(12/31/2019)

9,078

9,465

8,758

10,506

9,682

9,133

10,001

10,697

11,752

11,344

10,284 10,240

12,429

11,557

13,542

12,138

11,162

9,361

10,554

10,110 10,019

10,601

9,886

9,193

8,626

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Moves to Parole

18

Impact on Releases: Years of declining prison intake are reflected in declining moves to

parole.

12,753 12,713 12,57313,047

13,653 13,706

14,545

15,592

17,449

18,104

17,168

16,029

18,362

20,379

22,237 22,183

20,129

18,21817,964

16,767

15,609 15,658

14,589

13,607

12,713

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Year-End Parole Population Under Active Supervision*

* Includes Interstate Compact parolees here and Residential Reentry

19

Impact on Releases: The parole population peaked in 2009 and has since declined by

43% due to successful parole completions and declining moves to parole.

851

969

1,051

1,174

1,299

1,449

1,629

1,699 1,714

1,925 1,929

1,781

1,713

1,655

1,502

1,188

1,126

961

898

849 833

647

555507

459

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Discharges on the Maximum Sentence

20

Impact on Releases: Since peaking in 2005, discharges on the maximum continue over

a decade of decline due to the higher parole approval rate.

45.744.9

43.5

41.9

39.3 39.1

40.8 40.6

36.5

33.2

31.530.6

29.0

30.331.0

29.8

28.129.1

26.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


3-Year Return to Prison Rate*

* Includes cases that were returned on Parole Technical Violations or for a New Sentence within three years of release.

21

Impact on Returns: Since establishing the baseline for recidivism in 1998, the 3-Year Return

to Prison Rate remained in a range of 28-32% for eight years. The 3-Year Return to Prison

Rate for 2016 hit an all-time low of 26.7%.

890

1,033

1,2881,345

1,259

1,1661,195

1,441

1,644

1,802

1,879

2,0201,985

2,0251,970

1,794

1,525

1,406 1,393

1,267

1,1591,105

1,029989

865

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Parole Violator New Sentence Intake

22

Impact on Returns: The parole violator new sentence (PVNS) intake resulting from new

felony prosecutions while on parole continues its decline for the eleventh year.

1,916

2,577

2,668

3,1103,186

3,111

3,2363,289

2,161

3,013

2,859

3,157

2,094

1,878

2,127

2,373

1,893

2,698

2,020

1,686

1,854

1,958

1,691

1,5961,547

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Parole Technical Violator Returns to Prison

23

Impact on Returns: Parole technical violator returns (PVT returns) to prison have

declined to 27-year low and are down over 50% from the 2002 high.

Factors Driving the Prison Population

A. Felony Court Dispositions Down

B. Prison Commitment Rate Stable

C. Probation Population Down

D. Probation Violators to Prison Down

E. Prison Intake Down

F. Intake Average Min Term Up

G. Parole Approval Rate Stable

H. Parole Decisions Down

I. Moves to Parole Down

J. Parole Population Down

K. Max Discharges Down

L. 3-Year Return to Prison Rate (Recidivism) Stable

M. Parole Violator New Offense Returns (PVNS) Down

N. Parole Technical Rule Violator Returns (PVT) Down

Summary Nearly ALL Favorable

24

Projecting the Prison PopulationA. The Model originally purchased from the National Council on Crime and

Delinquency in 1987. The Model has been extensively adapted and customized by MDOC staff over the years.

B. The Model is a Monte Carlo prison population simulator that uses numerous probability distributions to mimic prisoner transitions through MDOC.

C. Probability distributions that drive the Model are build from MDOC enterprise data systems through extensive data extraction, transformation, and analysis before loading into the Model.

D. Data analysis breaks prisoner data down into 50 offense / max term groupings each with up to 6 min term for a total of 300 pairs which allow particular attention to 0-24 month sentences that have the greatest influence on 3 to 5 year population projections.

E. Rebuilt data is then “fine tuned” in the Model by back-projecting against two years of actual historical trace vectors to ensure a valid basis to project the future.

F. Trend analysis forms the basis for the future yearly intake assumptions that must be fed to the Model for disaggregation and projection.

G. Last February’s projection was 98.6% accurate at the end of December 2019 – projecting 538 prisoners higher than actual.

25

26

Projection Assumptions: While Yearly Intake appears declining, Monthly Intake

flattened out in 2017. Thin line shows the wild variations that occur in the raw monthly

intake counts. Thick line within the wild variations shows the embedded trend.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Model Intake1981-2019

27

Projection Assumptions: Male New Court Commitments are hitting the bottom reached

in 2000. The prudent course is to assume it will bounce at a rate similar to the increases

seen in 2009 and 2011.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Male New Court Commitments1981-2019

28

Projection Assumptions: The current Female Probation Violators trend may continue

until it reaches the bottom seen in 2009 and then increase at the 2009 rate.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Female Probation Violators1981-2019

Projection Assumptions

A. Model Intake Slightly Up1. Male New Court Commits rise slightly the next couple of years.

2. Female Probation Violation Commits decline slightly, then rise.

3. 2020 up 2.7%, 2021 up 4.3%, 2022 up 5.4%, then flat at that level

B. Parole Approval Rate Stable1. Maintains at 2019 level

C. Parole Decisions Stable/Up1. Slight increase but delayed for intake

D. Moves to Parole Stable/Up1. Slight increase but delayed for intake

E. Parole Violator New Offense Returns (PVNS) Stable1. Stable but possible increase years after intake increase

F. Parole Technical Rule Violator Returns (PVT) Stable1. Stable but possible increase years after intake increase

29

Projection Assumptions

30

2019 2020 2021 2022

Intake 6,276 6,444 6,720 7,080

Parole Violators New Sentence (PVNS)

862 887 915 902

Parole Violators Technical (PVT)

1,546 1,523 1,486 1,545

Paroles 8,626 8,731 8,805 9,026

36,000

37,000

38,000

39,000

40,000

41,000

42,000

43,000

44,000

45,000

46,000

47,000

48,000

49,000

50,000

51,000

52,000

53,000

Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24

Nu

mb

er

End of Month


ACTUAL AND PROJECTED PRISON POPULATION

Actual Prison Population 02/2020 Prison Population Projection

31

The new prison population projection anticipates a continued but

slowing decline as a baseline forecast absent any new initiatives.

Documents

Michigan Department of Corrections · Michigan Department of Corrections Prison Commitment Rate* * The prison commitment rate is the percentage of all felony court dispositions that