Microsimulation in the UK: the current state of play Dr Paul
Williamson Dept. of Geography University of Liverpool
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ModelInstitutionStaticDynamicABMTax-benefitDemographicOtherPublic
MultipleDWPXXXX MultipleTreasuryXXXX PPIXXX IFSXX OPERAStirlingXXX
MOSESLeedsXX SCOTSIMLiverpoolXX SAGEMODSouthamptonXXX
SimBritainSheffieldXXX EUROMODEssexXXX LawsonEssexX?XXX
AndersonEssex S-ParamicsSIASXXX SimDELTADSCXXX SOCSIMLSEXXX
CARESIMUEAXXX FEARLUSMLURIX ADaPTSouthamptonXX ?YorkX ?LeedsXXX
Current MSM in the UK: an overview
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% of non-fitting synthetic combinations PARTIALLY CONSTRAINED
DISTRIBUTIONS DistributionRural (South West) Middling England (East
Mids.) Deprived industrial (North) Deprived urban (Outer London)
SEG / Household composition 0000 SEG / Rooms0.5000 Household
composition / Dependants 0000 Dependants / Tenure0000 Sex / marital
status / tenure 161.5 3.0 Illness / sex01.500 Synthetically
estimated spatial microdata
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Telephony: 2005/6 Simulated household weekly telephone bill
(landlines) (FES 2005/6) EEDA, LSOA level Ward level comparison
with BT billing data (EEDA, Ward level) Spearman rho = 0.7796, p
< 0.001
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Simulated work time ONS Time-Use Survey (2001) and Census 2001
East of England, LSOA Validation: (Spearman rho = 0.8404, p <
0.001) Strong correlation with Census 2001 work time
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% More happy than usual 2001 2011
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Happiness & Life Events EventCorrelation Top 5 negative
associations Relationships (mine ending)-0.178 Death (parent)-0.166
Healthparent-0.139 Death (other)-0.137 Employment job loss-0.129
Top Five positive associations Relationships (mine starting)0.160
Employment job gain0.097 Finance (house)0.097 Pregnancy (mine)0.084
Pregnancy (child's)0.053
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OPERA (1) Costs (% disposable income) of various Local Tax
structures
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(2) Change in costs given changing Dementia prevalence
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Workflow Research Object Portlet MOSES
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Simulation Database Aggregate To Migrant Population Aggregate
To Vacant Dwellings Migrant generation model Spatial Interaction
Model Compute dwelling preference for each migrant Update Location
and Dwelling Characteristics 1 4 3 2 5 2 Conventional migration
distribution procedure
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ABM in MOSES Observed MSM ABM
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Modelling Individual Consumer Behaviour
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ABM v. MSM?
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t4t4 t1t1 t2t2 t3t3 The Global Epidemic Simulator
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Modelling Needs and Resources of Older People to 2030
(MAP2030)
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SOCSIM
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Average number of living grand children and grand parents
(complete)
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CARESIM: adding new cohort of people now aged 45-64 + Need to
simulate pensions & retirement
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CONCLUSION In a number of fields UK MSM is world-leading
Challenges All models Maintenance/updating/upgrading/validation
Increased collaboration Increasing user base Academic models
Greater public policy influence