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Middle East & North Africa Regional Summary

June 1, 2014

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Month Day, Year Executive Summary

HIGH RISK

In the Levant, Syrian refugees and expatriates in Lebanon and Jordan traveled in mass to the

capitals to vote in Syrian elections held at Syria's Embassies. Elections are slated to be held

in regime-controlled territory in Syria on June 3. Both Jordan and Lebanon continue to

struggle with spill over from the conflict, both in terms of maintaining significant refugee

populations, and related violence, particularly along border regions. Meanwhile, in Israel

and the Palestinian Territories relations between the two parties remains chilled, as Fatah

and Hamas continue to progress toward the establishment of a national unity government.

In the interim, there has been a moderate uptick in civil unrest and isolated militancy in the

West Bank, underlined by an attempted suicide bombing on May 30 at a popular junction in

the West Bank frequented by Israeli citizens living in West Bank settlements.

In the Maghreb, Major General Khalifa Haftar's launched "Operation Dignity" in Benghazi,

Libya aiming to root of Islamist militants, and limit the power of the Islamist backed General

National Congress (GNC). Recently afflicted by increasing militancy from transnational

groups, predominantly based in Libya, surrounding countries, including Algeria and Tunisia

have significantly increased deployments of military forces in areas bordering Libya. Such

measures serve to prevent further spillover militancy, and prevent the infiltration of

elements fleeing Haftar's expanding offensive. Meanwhile, in Egypt, Former Minister of

Defense Fatah Abdel al-Sisi won a landslide victory in presidential elections held from May

25-28, however turnout number approximately 42 percent, highlights deep seated

polarization within Egypt. Amidst continuing militancy and counter-insurgency campaigns in

outlying areas of the country, activism from pro-Muslim Brotherhood groups in major cities

will likely continue and may intensify over the coming weeks.

In the GCC, Bahrain's prominent opposition group, al-Wefaq National Islamic Society,

announced its intention to boycott parliamentary elections unless its "calls for political

reform are met", while the National Dialogue remains stalled. Across the bridge, in

neighboring Saudi Arabia, indications of an upcoming meeting between Saudi and Iranian

foreign ministers suggests a potential warming of relations. This comes amidst Iran's

continued participation in negotiations with the P5+1 regarding a final status agreement,

while evidence indicates its continued adherence to the terms of its nuclear deals. Finally, in

an effort to reduce the organization's operation capabilities, the Yemeni government

remains committed to its counter-militancy campaign against al-Qaeda in the Arabian

Peninsula, including in the south, while Houthi violence has renewed in the north.

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The following list contains countries in the region with notable developments from the past month. Please choose your country of interest by clicking on its link below.

EXTREME RISK

Syria ....................................................................................................................................... 4

HIGH RISK

Egypt ...................................................................................................................................... 5

Iraq......................................................................................................................................... 6

Lebanon ................................................................................................................................. 7

Libya....................................................................................................................................... 8

Yemen .................................................................................................................................... 9

MEDIUM RISK

Algeria .................................................................................................................................. 10

Bahrain ................................................................................................................................ 11

Iran....................................................................................................................................... 12

Israel & Palestinian Territories ............................................................................................ 13

Jordan .................................................................................................................................. 14

Saudi Arabia ......................................................................................................................... 15

Tunisia ................................................................................................................................. 16

Turkey .................................................................................................................................. 17

Middle East and North Africa: MERS-CoV Update .............................................................. 18

Notable Dates for the period of June 2014 ........................................................................... 20

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Presidential elections slated for June 3 underline regime strategy projecting stability,

amidst increasing on-the-ground control over prominent cities.

Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) launches investigation

into use of chlorine gas against rebel-held areas in Hama and Idlib.

Intra-rebel fighting between coalition of moderate and Islamist factions continues

against Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Dear Ez-Zor Province.

We advise against all travel to Damascus, Aleppo, and Homs due to persistent fighting

between forces loyal to the Assad regime and rebel militants. Foreigners operating in

rebel-held areas face an increased risk of abduction or attack.

Presidential Elections

We assess that the holding of presidential elections is part of a broader Assad regime

strategy aiming to project an image of increasing stability in the country, which has been

entrenched in civil hostilities since 2011. On-the-ground circumstances, however, lend

relative credence to the regime’s attempts, highlighted by a series of strategic gains over the

past six months, including the recapture of the Qalamoun region bordering Lebanon, Homs

city, Aleppo prison, and advances in outlying areas of Damascus. The aftermath of elections,

which Assad is near-guaranteed to win, may be witnessed by increasingly assertive policies

from the Syrian regime vis-a-vis the international community.

Chemical Weapons

The Assad regime’s alleged use of chlorine gas would be a violation of the international

agreement it signed in August 2013 to destroy its chemical weapons stockpile, of which 8

percent still remains under regime control. While the use of chlorine gas remains

unconfirmed, both the U.K. and France have indicated that they have evidence of its use. We

continue to assess that the regime’s maintenance of a limited chemical arsenal, and

potential tactical use, serves to focus international attention on the regime’s chemical

capabilities, thereby offsetting pressure on the use of conventional weaponry.

Intra-rebel fighting in Dear Ez-Zor

Despite intra-rebel fighting in the Dear Ez-Zor province, moderate rebel factions, in

cooperation with the al-Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front, have recently launched an offensive

against regime-controlled areas in the Idlib province, capturing strategic territory along the

M5 Damascus-Aleppo highway. If such an offensive required the redistribution of forces

from Dear Ez-Zor, there remains potential that ISIS will be able to reinforce positions in the

eastern areas of the province bordering Iraq. Such a maneuver increases the possibility

that ISIS could strengthen its transnational operational capabilities between Syria’s Dear

Ez-Zor Province and Iraq’s Anbar Province, where the group has been entrenched in

clashes with Iraqi security forces since December 2013.

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EXTREME RISK Notable Dates

Syria

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HIGH RISK Notable Dates

Egypt

Preliminary results from the May 26-28 presidential elections indicate landslide victory for Abdel Fatah al-Sisi. Anti-military, al-Sisi protests likely to continue.

Egyptian security forces claimed to kill an Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM) leader on May 23,

ABM denies killing with photographic proof, undermining security operations in the Sinai

Peninsula.

Pro-Muslim Brotherhood groups call for extend weeklong protest campaign, titled

“Boycott the Presidency of Blood,” in protest of presidential elections. Protests likely to

continue after elections.

We advise against all nonessential travel to Cairo and Alexandria at this time due to

the persistent risk of civil unrest in major cities, militant attacks, and violence targeting

foreigners.

Presidential Elections

Preliminary results indicate al-Sisi received 97 percent of the national vote. Approximately

47 percent of eligible participated, likely disappointing supporters of al-Sisi, who sought

larger turnouts to both legitimize his rule and allow for the swift implementation of his

security platform. Reports of a low turnout are likely to encourage pro-Muslim Brotherhood

activists into joining mass demonstrations, highlighted by calls for weeklong protests on May

31, and reports of violent demonstrations on May 30.

Militancy in the Sinai Peninsula

Shadi al-Menai and three other militants were reportedly killed by the Egyptian military,

aiding al-Sisi and his security platform. However, photographs of al-Menai reading the news

of his death, released two days later, called the effectiveness of the military offensive in the

Sinai into doubt. The denial of al-Menai’s death may also negatively affect al-Sisi’s security

credentials, given ongoing attacks by jihadists, including in Egypt’s main cities. Egyptian

forces are likely to expand military operations in the Sinai following the election of al-Sisi.

Pro-Muslim Brotherhood unrest

Following the announcement to extend the protest campaign, the pro-Muslim Brotherhood

National Alliance to Support Legitimacy declared that demonstrations would be “escalated.”

This announcement likely prompted the heightened security measures witnessed around

the country during elections, highlighted by the closure of al-Azhar University from May 22-

30. That said, protests throughout the election period had a limited turnout, reflecting a

waning interest in reinstating Mohammed Morsi as president, and a desire to return to

security and stability. That said following the election, there has been an uptick in unrest,

including in violent demonstrations at universities in Cairo.

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HIGH RISK

Iraq

● Despite an uptick in counter-militancy operations against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-

Sham (ISIS) in the Anbar Province, ISIS militants conduct a series of militant attacks

against Shiite areas of Baghdad amidst holiday commemorations on May 25-27.

● The Turkish government facilitated the sale of the first million barrels of oil from the

Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), despite opposition from the federal government

in Baghdad on May 23.

● Despite winning 95 seats in Iraq’s April 30 national elections, P.M. Nuri al-Maliki’s State

of Law Coalition (SLC) in discussions with opposition parties to form coalition.

● We advise against nonessential travel to Baghdad and Basra at this time. If travel is

essential, contact us for itinerary based consultation and on-ground support.

ISIS militancy in Baghdad

Given the relative ineffectiveness of Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) operations against ISIS

militants to quell their capacity to carry out mass casualty attacks in the capital, we assess

that Baghdad remains under a high-level threat of militancy in the coming weeks.

Furthermore, given ISIS’ growing regional strength, facilitated by ongoing operations in Syria,

and transnational supply lines between Iraq’s Anbar and Syria’s Dear Ez-Zor Provinces, we

assess that there remains an increased potential for ISIS to establish and fortify additional

positions in the vicinity of Baghdad and outlying areas of the country.

KRG Oil Sales

While the central government in Baghdad has filed a request for arbitration at the

International Chamber of Commerce in Paris claiming that Turkey has violated a treaty that

governs the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline, statements from both the Turkish and KRG governments

indicate that shipments of KRG oil are likely to continue to be sold to European markets in

the coming months. That said, a recent threat to file suit against U.S. firms which purchase

such oil, and the turn-around of a U.S. bound ship, indicate that the U.S. may continue to

serve as a mediator between the KRG and Baghdad, preventing either side from taking

escalatory measures.

National election results

While the SLC gained several additional parliamentary seats relative to the 2010 national

elections, Prime Minister al-Maliki will need to successfully negotiate the formation of a

coalition government with several of his main political opponents, including prominent

Shiite clerics Muqtada al-Sadr and Ammar Hakim, who are opposed to Maliki seeking a third

term as prime minister. That said, given the development of anti-Maliki coalitions amongst

Kurdish, Sunni, and several Shiite political factions, we assess that Iraq may witness a

prolonged political stalemate during the government formation process, which could take

several months.

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HIGH RISK Notable Dates

Lebanon

Cabinet meets for first session on May 30 since expiration of former President Michel

Suleiman's term on May 25, highlighting limited political cooperation despite deadlock.

Pending boycott of end-of-the-year exams, threat of a general strike on June 6,

highlights escalating tension between public sector unions, parliamentarians.

Presidential elections held at Beirut’s Syrian Embassy on May 28-29 highlight continued

polarization between pro-, anti-Syrian constituencies in Lebanon

We advise against all nonessential travel to Lebanon at this time, while restricting

travel to Beirut’s northern districts.

Presidential Power Vacuum

Despite threats from Christian parties to boycott the first Cabinet session following the

failure to elect a new Maronite Christian president, the session was attended by all parties.

However, Christian representatives demanded resolution of the political crisis before

discussion of agenda items. P.M. Tammam Salam indicated that the Cabinet, in line with the

constitution, would assume all executive powers until the election of a new president. Given

such developments, we assess that Lebanon’s political leadership remains committed to

preventing a deepening of the political crisis resulting from a presidential void. Prolonged

inability to negotiate a consensual candidate, will however increase the likelihood that

political stalemate will impact day-to-day stability nationwide.

Labor disputes

Following a labor strike on May 26-27, the Parliament's failure to approve a new public

sector-wage increase law carries potential to influence widespread disruptions throughout

Beirut over the coming weeks. In the event that public sector workers launch an open ended

strike, the probability for mass demonstrations in central areas of the capital will

significantly increase, while cancelation of the exams may similar result in backlash from the

country’s student populations. Amidst continued political deadlock, we assess Parliament is

unlikely to pass a wage increase prior to the selection of a new president. As a result, the

potential for an escalation of labor union activism remains high.

Syria Elections

During the polls, tens to hundreds of thousands traveled to Beirut’s southern suburbs,

causing widespread traffic disruptions in the vicinity of the Syrian Embassy. Parties critical of

Syria, including March 14-aligned officials, claimed the polls resembled a pro-Syrian

demonstration, underlining prevailing tensions between supporters and opponents of the

Assad regime. While such sentiments have limited impact at this time on day-to-day affairs

in the capital, outlying areas of the country, including Tripoli, Hermel, and the Bekaa Valley,

continue to witness intermittent bouts of Syria-related violence.

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HIGH RISK Notable Dates

Libya

Major General Khalifa Haftar launches operations in Benghazi to root out militants,

Islamist militias, declaring the General National Congress (GNC) null and void; clashes

likely to continue as Haftar increasingly gains public, military support

GNC approves Cabinet of disputed Prime Minister Ahmed Matiq on May 25, despite

Haftar’s threats declaring the body a target, underscoring continued political tensions.

Federalist Political Bureau of Cyrenaica (PBC) declares opposition to Matiq’s election,

underscoring potential for oil industry disruptions over the coming month.

We advise to defer all travel to Tripoli and Benghazi in the coming days due to a recent

uptick in violence, threats against foreigners, and the likelihood that clashes will

continue.

Major General Haftar’s “Operation Dignity”

Haftar’s operations in Benghazi, which began on May 16, have continued intermittently until

this time. These were prefaced by Haftar’s since-disproven claims in February 2014 that his

troops were in Tripoli and calls for the dissolution of the GNC, described by the government

as a “coup attempt”. Indications that Haftar then dialogued with tribal and military figures

suggest that the general likely assessed that he had achieved sufficient support to stage an

intervention. With this in mind, growing support for Haftar’s operations may allow him a

mandate to expand political influence. In the coming weeks, however, Haftar may attempt

to maintain legitimacy by expanding operations to other eastern areas.

Tripoli Political Tensions

The May 25 approval of Matiq’s cabinet has raised already elevated political tensions in

Tripoli, given allegations that a quorum was not present during the session. Such indications

further led current Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni to declare on May 28 that he would

remain in his position. However, reports that Matiq held his first cabinet meeting on May 29,

suggest that Matiq and the GNC are attempting to maintain relevance despite mounting

criticism of the GNC’s inefficacy. However, increased popular discontent may pressure

Haftar to forcibly disband the body, including through the arrest of Matiq and other figures.

Oil Industry Developments

The PBC’s threats to reconsider deals with the government regarding the reopening of the

Hariga and Zueitina terminals underscore persisting tensions with Tripoli, most recently

peaking with the PBC’s opposition to the election of Matiq, who is allegedly Islamist-backed.

Such threats highlight likely efforts by the PBC to leverage instability in Tripoli to reassert

control of eastern terminals and bolster legitimacy. However, it remains possible that over

the coming weeks, Haftar may attempt to ink independent agreements with the PBC, in

order to secure oil production and remove legitimacy from the GNC.

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HIGH RISK

Yemen

Counter-militancy operations begin against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in

Sanaa's outskirts on April 25 and in the Shabwa and Abyan Governorates on April 28.

Power disruptions and fuel shortages lead to public discontent, including a May 19

protest in Sanaa, and connected to increased attacks against infrastructure.

Houthi activities increase, including clashes with military forces in Amran, as AQAP

claims responsibility for a May 26 car bomb targeting Houthis in the Jawf Governorate.

Given the credible risk of attacks and kidnappings, it is advised to avoid all non-

essential travel to Sanaa and Aden, while avoiding overland travel and travel to

outlying areas.

Effect of Counter-Militancy Operations on Sanaa

Following initial operations that involved U.S. drone strikes, AQAP threatened retaliation.

Subsequently, an uptick in successful and foiled attacks was recorded in Sanaa, including

against the Presidential Palace on May 9 while embassies temporarily closed. However, a

decrease in such incidents has recently been recorded, underscored by the reopening of

embassies. This may indicate relatively successful counter-insurgency operations, especially

surrounding Sanaa. That said, continued AQAP attacks throughout Yemen, particularly in the

south, suggest its perseverance and likely ability to target Sanaa again in the coming months.

Fuel shortages and Power Outages in Sanaa

These disruptions have likely been triggered by attacks against oil and electricity

infrastructure, generally conducted by elements attempting to pressure authorities to

concede to demands or target the government by damaging its economy. Increased attacks

have been triggered by the counter-militancy campaign, including incidents in Marib on May

9 and May 17 by tribesmen. AQAP has likely also conducted retaliatory attacks, particularly

given previous operations conducted by the organization, including a foiled plot in February

against an oil refinery in the Aden Governorate. With this in mind, and given that the

counter-militancy campaign remains ongoing, further attacks and disruptions are likely in

the coming weeks, along with protests denouncing perceived government inaction.

Shiite Houthi-Related Violence

Despite recent cease fires requiring Houthi withdrawals, recently renewed clashes are likely

connected to Houthi efforts to exploit diversions of military resources and attention toward

counter-militancy operations in order to regain territories. Meanwhile, the Jawf bombing by

AQAP may be connected to attempts to divert Yemeni military resources away from a focus

on AQAP strongholds in the south. It is likely also part of its anti-Houthi polices, highlighted

by a new subgroup tasked with targeting Houthis. Given Houthi aspirations and view of its

conflict as self defense, along with AQAP's perception of Shiite as heretics and aggressors

toward Sunnis, such violence is likely to continue in the coming weeks and months.

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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

Algeria

The Libyan border area is likely to remain volatile over the coming weeks, following

attempted infiltrations in Algeria's Illizi Province on May 19, as well as simultaneous

similar efforts on May 5, leading to the establishment of a closed military zone.

President Bouteflika’s release of a proposal for constitutional reforms on May 16 remain

unlikely to coopt the political opposition, despite debates slated for June.

Socioeconomic unrest is likely to persist in outlying areas, reflected by May 19 and 26

National Committee for the Rights of the Unemployed (CNDDC) protests in Ouargla.

Travel to Algiers and Oran may continue while adhering to all security precautions

regarding militancy and civil unrest. Consult with us for itinerary-based travel

recommendations.

Militancy

Given the increasing frequency of infiltration attempts from Libya, the government recently

raised deployments to the area, mobilizing 5,000 additional soldiers and police officers to

the Illizi Province. Such measures would allow a more rapid Algerian military response to

threats, particularly given coordination between the military and the police. However, the

Libyan government’s inability to control its side of the border suggests that Algeria’s Illizi

Province is likely to remain a desirable militant target, particularly given the presence of

energy installations, as well as smuggling and militant networks.

Political Developments

Despite initial speculations that constitutional revisions would lead to the creation of a vice

presidential post, in order to create a successor in the event of a deterioration in Bouteflika’s

health, the May 16 revisions lack such a position. However, a proposed increase in the

prime minister's powers suggests that this role may function similarly. While the reforms

were rejected by the opposition, such groups maintain a limited ability to mobilize

supporters post-election, with inter-party divisions likely to hamper the development of

significant opposition to the revisions and Bouteflika’s fourth term.

Socioeconomic Unrest

While protests against Bouteflika's reelection have failed to maintain high levels of support,

socioeconomic demonstrations continue, particularly in outlying areas in which the

population relies on government employment. There has further been an uptick in CNDDC

protests in Ouargla, which was a flashpoint for socioeconomic protests and unrest in 2013.

Such activities are likely to continue over the coming month, particularly given a recent

confirmation of a one-month prison sentence against CNDDC head Tahar Belabes, while

demonstrations by the group carry an increased potential for unrest.

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MEDIUM RISK

Bahrain

Al-Wefaq's May 27 announcement that it will boycott elections "unless our call for

political reforms is met" is likely an attempt to exert pressure on the government.

The May 15 attack against Batelco's telecommunication cables to condemn the firing of

Shiite workers in 2011 highlights the perception that the company is a legitimate target.

Shiite activist Nabeel Rajab calls for a new dialogue between the Sunni government and

Shiite opposition in the country following his May 25 release from prison.

Travel to Manama's business and diplomatic districts can continue at this time, while

adhering to basic security precautions regarding civil unrest and low-level militancy.

Elections boycott

Al-Wefaq's boycott follows a stricter approach taken by authorities toward the prominent

opposition group's gatherings, highlighted by the forcible dispersal of a banned gathering on

May 3 and similarly banned demonstrations on May 23 and May 30. As a result, it remains

possible that the boycott is in response to this policy, while also likely intended to pressure

the government to accede to its broader demands, including an easing of restrictions on civil

liberties particularly for Shiites. Given that al-Wefaq has the support of a large portion of the

Shiite majority population, highlighted by participation at its events that often number in the

thousands, any boycott is likely to decrease voter turnout and call into question whether

those elected truly have a mandate from the population.

Militant attacks targeting telecommunication cables

A relative uptick in reported attacks against telecommunication cables belonging to Bahrain

Telecommunications Company (Batelco) have been recorded throughout the country,

largely conducted by the Shiite militant group, Pioneers of Change. In 2011, the company

reportedly fired a number of Shiite employees due to their support for demonstrations. Such

actions, in addition to the fact that its major shareholders include governmental entities,

have likely led the opposition to perceive Batelco as anti-opposition and government

associated, with attacks against its infrastructure as another means of targeting the regime.

With this in mind, such incidents are likely to continue in the coming weeks and months.

National Dialogue

Nabil Rajab's statements come amidst efforts to resume National Dialogue (ND) sessions

that froze following the withdrawal of the Sunni Coalition of National Political Associations

(al-Fateh) on March 4 after an explosion in Daih. This includes reports that the Royal Court is

reviewing submissions previously presented by ND participants, including al-Fateh. However,

al-Wefaq's call to boycott elections is likely to increase tensions within the ND. With this in

mind, and despite Rajab's statements, disagreements between members are likely to

prevent any significant progress in the ND in the coming weeks and months.

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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

Iran

● International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) quarterly report indicates Iran's continued

adherence to agreements with the P5+1 and IAEA regarding its nuclear program.

● Ongoing negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 likely to continue despite difficult

round of talks in Vienna from May 14-16. Upcoming round tentatively set for June 16-20.

● Western nationals are advised against all nonessential travel to Iran due to persistent

negative sentiment toward Westerners. For non-Western nationals, travel to Tehran,

Esfahan, and other major cities in Iran may continue.

Adherence to nuclear agreements

The May 23 IAEA quarterly report confirmed that Iran has reduced its stockpile of higher-

grade enriched uranium, deemed nearly weapons grade, by 82% since January 20, when the

interim agreement with the P5+1 was enacted. This follows an IAEA report in April,

indicating that Iran had reduced its original stockpile by 75% at the time. Furthermore,

statements by a senior IAEA official in late May indicated that Iran is planning to begin

converting low-level enriched uranium gas into oxide for reactor fuel in mid-June. These

measures reflect the agreement laid out by the Joint Plan of Action (JPoA) between Iran and

the P5+1, requiring Iran to convert its stockpile of five percent enriched uranium into oxide

for reactor fuel, and dilute its 20 percent enriched uranium. Given the reported plans to

begin converting low-level enriched uranium, we assess that Iran will continue to adhere to

its agreements with the P5+1. This is further supported by reports from the IAEA that a plant

near Isfahan designed for converting the low-level enriched uranium and stipulated in the

JPoA is currently in its testing stages, while 4.3 tons of low-level uranium has reportedly

been transported to this facility.

Continuance of negotiations with the P5+1

Following the most recent round of negotiations from May 14-16, statements from various

Iranian officials have indicated that talks have experienced increased complications, with a

U.S. official calling them "slow and difficult". Some points of contention include a dispute

over the Arak heavy water reactor, which was previously resolved, according to an April 19

statement from the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran; as well as Iran’s ballistic

missile program, which various politicians from the U.S. seek to have included in the

negotiations. That said, despite such complexities, we assess that Iran desires to continue

with the process. This is highlighted by reportedly successful informal talks on May 26-27

between EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif.

We assess that Iran’s compliance with the P5+1 is likely an effort to improve its economy via

the removal of sanctions imposed against them. In this context, we assess that talks are

likely to progress, while complications may continue to arise in light of challenges associated

with transitioning from agenda setting to the drafting of a final agreement. Back to table of contents

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MEDIUM RISK & HIGH RISK Notable Dates

Israel & Palestinian Territories

Despite delays, Palestinian parties continue to progress toward formation of a national

unity government; dispute over Foreign Minister position likely to be resolved

Hospitalization of hunger striking prisoners on May 28 carries potential to increase civil

unrest in major Palestinian cities.

Uptick in militant incidents in the West Bank reported over past weeks, highlighted by

attempted suicide bombing on May 30 at Tapuach Junction, first attempt since 2008.

Travel to major cities in Israel, including western areas of Jerusalem, may continue

while adhering to basic security precautions regarding civil unrest and terrorism.

Widening political gaps

According to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, current Prime Minister Ramdi

Hamdallah will serve as the government’s premier, additionally indicating that the

government will respect all previous agreements with Israel, and will not contain official

Hamas movement members. Such statements are likely an attempt to defuse elevating

tensions with Israel, and growing concerns from the U.S. surrounding the Fatah-Hamas

reconciliation agreement. However, given continued progress toward formation of a

government, we assess that the coming months are unlikely to witness significant

progression to the state of Israeli-Palestinian relations, and will likely be defined by

emphasis on internal Palestinian developments, particularly holding of national elections.

Palestinian prisoner hunger strike

The hospitalization of Palestinian hunger striking prisoners on May 28 carries potential to

result in the expansion of civil unrest in major Palestinian cities, particularly if further health

deteriorations are reported. In particular, in the past, the death of Palestinian prisoners in

Israeli jails has led to consecutive days of unrest, particularly in cities which remain

traditional focal points for Palestinian activism and militancy, including Hebron, Jenin and

Nablus.

Militancy and Civil Unrest

The recent uptick in incidents, which additionally includes a series of unsophisticated attacks

against IDF troops and demonstrations, underline growing frustrations from Palestinian in

the West Bank. While recent attacks were likely carried out by “lone wolf” assailants or

bands of disenfranchised youth, their frequency in late May is notable. A similar escalation

of tensions was recorded in Jerusalem’s Old City, with consecutive days of unrest recorded

on the Temple Mount/al-Aqsa Mosque compound surrounding Yom Yerushalayim on May

28. As a result, we assess that the risk of attacks targeting both Israeli military troops and

civilian personnel in the West Bank will remain elevated. Israeli counter-militancy operations

may increase tensions, particularly in Hebron, Nablus, and Jenin.

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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

Jordan

Violence from the conflict in Syria continues to spill over into Jordan as noted by three

stray rockets landing in Ramtha, military clashes with militants attempting to enter

Jordan, and increased Jordanian military deployments along their shared border.

Threat of Islamic militancy increases in Jordan amid calls from Islamic State of Iraq and

al-Sham (ISIS) to transfer "Jihadi operations" to Jordan, announcement of formation of

ISIS-affiliated Ma'an Martyrs Brigade.

Travel to Amman can continue at this time, while adhering to standard security

protocols. Be advised that there is a heightened risk for foreigners traveling outside of

major urban centers, due to the continuing trend of civil unrest in the Kingdom's more

remote areas.

Syrian Conflict Spillover

The rockets landed in Ramtha, located approximately 10 km from Daraa, Syria between May

16 and 18. Such incidents highlight the potential for fighting, particularly in southern Syria,

to spill over into Jordan. Meanwhile, following military airstrikes on April 16 and May 11,

likely against Islamist militants attempting to enter the country, as well as several clashes

between the military and Islamic militants in recent months, the government reportedly

ordered the deployment of additional military battalions to and the construction of dozens

of observation towers in the border areas. These measures highlight the Jordanian

government's increasing concern over and efforts to prevent militants from crossing into

Jordan from Syria, as well as from Jordan into Syria. We assess that increasing rebel

operations in southern Syria, may increase attempted infiltrations across the Jordan-Syria

border, increasing potential that additional clashes will be recorded over the coming

months.

Increased threat of militancy

Given previous threats from ISIS to assassinate Jordan's King Abdullah II, as well as to carry

out suicide attacks against intelligence installations throughout the country, we assess calls

for the expansion of ISIS operations to Jordan underline the group's strategic objective to

destabilize the Hashemite Kingdom Additionally, the war in Syria has provided Jordan's Salafi

population with a training ground for militarization, with reports indicated that up to 2,000

Jordanian citizens are presently fighting within Islamic militant factions. Therefore, we assess

that there is a particular threat from Jordanians returning to the Hashemite Kingdom from

Syria, particularly given the prevailing tensions between Jordanian Islamists and the central

government. As a result, over the coming months to years, there remains potential that

militant groups, both with transnational operations in neighboring countries, as well as

domestic-based networks, will increasingly seek to carry out attacks throughout the

Kingdom. That said, Jordan's security and intelligence forces continue to demonstrate high

aptitude for counter-militancy.

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MEDIUM RISK DatesNotable

Saudi Arabia

Despite death sentences issued to two Shiite activists triggering an uptick in opposition

protests in the Qatif region, gatherings have remained small and concluded peacefully.

While reports indicate interest in improving relations with Iran and a planned meeting

between foreign ministers, substantive agreements remain unlikely.

Travel to Riyadh, Dammam, and Jeddah can continue as normal while adhering to

basic security precautions and adherence to cultural norms. Maintain heightened

vigilance in the Qatif region, due to Shiite opposition activity, while avoiding

nonessential travel to the border areas with Yemen and Iraq, given the potential for

spillover unrest.

Shiite opposition

Death sentences handed down to two Shiite activists by a Jeddah court on May 26 and 29,

including to the nephew of prominent Shiite Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr who is also on trial,

triggered daily protests from May 27-29. Gatherings witnessed low turnouts and concluded

without incident. While tensions between the Shiite minority and Sunni government remain

high, low participation rates may be connected to concerns that joining in such gatherings

could result in subsequent arrest. Persistent reports of such sentences may also contribute

to the perception that they are part of the status quo and that opposition groups have been

incapable of altering policy.

In this context, while there may be further protests denouncing the death sentences, low

turnouts and peaceful conclusions are likely to continue. However, efforts to regain lost

momentum are likely, including through a continuation of near weekly gatherings.

Meanwhile, despite gestures by the government, including the May 14 appointment of a

Shiite to the director of health education at the Ministry of Health, little on-the-ground

change has been recorded. With this in mind, we continue to assess that failure by the

government to enact or engage in perceptible change may gradually increase dissatisfaction

and trigger increased unrest in the long term.

Saudi-Iranian relations

Riyadh's interest in warmer relations with Tehran is likely triggered by a number of regional

issues and concerns. As a result, we assess that a meeting between the two countries'

foreign ministers is likely to be set in the coming weeks, particularly given reports that an

unnamed "senior Iranian official" stated that Iran has requested Riyadh submit an agenda.

However, while such a meeting may serve as the start of more formal talks, the likelihood of

substantive agreements in the near term remains low. This is connected to wide gaps

between the two sides, necessitating lengthy discussions and major concessions. With this in

mind, while superficial improvements in relations remains possible in the coming months,

covert rivalry is likely to continue, particularly in the countries scheduled to be discussed.

This includes Bahrain, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.

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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

Tunisia

Tunisian security forces announced the arrest of 16 militants on May 25, allegedly

planning to attack tourist and industrial sites in the country, reflecting growing danger

on Libyan border.

Islamist militants from the Chaambi Mountain region attack Interior Minister’s home in

Kasserine on May 27, killing four police officers, likely in response to counter-militancy

operations.

Travel to Tunis may continue while adhering to all security precautions regarding

militancy and civil unrest. We advise against nonessential travel to outlying towns

and cities in Tunisia, due to the lack of travel and tourist infrastructure and a

heightened risk for civil unrest and militancy.

Libyan border militancy

Following the start of anti-Islamist operations in Libya, Tunisian officials announced the

reinforcement of its border with 5,000 additional troops. This was likely done due to fears of

Islamists infiltrating the border, in order to establish new safe havens. The May 25 arrests

validate these fears, and more attempted infiltrations are likely in the coming weeks, as

hostilities expand in Libya. Additionally, the Tunisian and Algerian governments announced

an agreement on May 27 to secure their mutual border against militants. In this context, the

agreement is likely a rationale to deploy additional troops to the Libyan border, in order to

implement permanent border security measures.

Chaambi Mountain offensive

The Interior Ministry claimed that over 10 gunmen, belonging to an Islamist militant group

operating out of the Chaambi Mountain region, executed the attack. The attempted

assassination comes amidst an anti-militancy offensive taking place in the Chaambi

Mountain region, a stronghold of Islamist militants operating in Tunisia. Tunisian forces

claim that they have nearly regained control over the region, and are close to eliminating the

presence of militants in the area. That said, this attack may have been intended to display

the resilience of Tunisian Islamists in the face of this offensive, and to display the ability to

threaten even top-level officials. Security measures around government and security

facilities are likely to be raised in the coming days, given the May 27 attack.

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MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

Turkey

May 13 explosion at a coal mine in Soma resulted in death of 301 people, sparking wave

of anti-government protests throughout the country, increased anti-government

sentiments are likely to persist.

Unrest in Istanbul’s Okmeydani and Gazi districts recorded following killing of two Alevi

residents on May 23, 24; police raids in Okmeydani on May 26-27 targeting armed

elements.

Prolonged deadlock in negotiations between Turkish government and Kurdistan Workers

Party (PKK), likely influence limited uptick in militant activities in southeastern regions.

We advise against nonessential travel to Istanbul’s Okmeydani and Gezi

neighborhoods, while maintaining heightened vigilance in the vicinity of Istanbul’s

Taksim Square and Ankara’s Guvenpark Memorial.

Soma Mine Disaster

The near-daily appearance of protests which occurring since the Soma mine incident,

highlights prevailing tensions between Turkish civil society groups and the central

government, with activists accusing both Soma Holding and the government of negligence.

Police operations employing tear gas and TOMA water cannons highlight the government's

continued limitation of anti-government protests, additionally underlined by city-wide

security measures imposed on May 31 to prevent activist groups from commemorating the

one year anniversary of the Taksim Gezi Park demonstrations. Intermittent demonstrations

are likely to continue throughout June.

Unrest in Istanbul’s Okmeydani and Gazi Districts

Unrest has been particularly influenced by the two deaths, which were followed by the

presence of armed elements on the streets in Okmeydani as well as Gazi, both Alevi areas.

As a result, police raids, in which 38 members of the Patriotic and Revolutionary Youth

Movement (YDG-H), an affiliate of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and the

Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C) were detained. Such raids were

likely a preemptive attempt to prevent broader attacks potentially targeting security forces.

Increase in PKK militancy

In the month of May, several militant incidents were recorded in southeastern Turkey,

including targeting of a Turkish military helicopter in Lice on May 12, abducting a soldier in

Diyarbakir on May 27 and the killing of a Turkish state militia member in the same city on

May 28. The recent uptick in PKK-affiliated activity follows warnings issued by Abdullah

Ocalan on April 27, warning of a possible return to violence if Kurdish demands remain

unfulfilled and peace negotiations remain stalled. At this time we assess such attacks are a

tactical attempt to create political pressure.

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MEDIUM RISK

Middle East and North Africa: MERS-CoV Update

● The World Health Organization stated in its most recent report from May 23 that it had

been informed of 635 laboratory confirmed cases worldwide, including 193 deaths.

● Iran, Tunisia, and Algeria witnessed their first cases of MERS-CoV in the second half of

May, while Saudi Arabia continues to take measures aimed at tackling growing numbers

of cases.

● Those traveling or residing in the Middle East, particularly in countries witnessing

recent reports of infections, are advised to practice common virus prevention

methods, such as hand washing, and avoid contact with sick persons. Consult with a

doctor if experiencing symptoms of the virus, which often include a combination of

fever with cough or difficulty breathing. As a general precaution, and in line with

advisories issued, it is recommended to avoid contact with camels when possible,

while refraining from consuming camel products in affected countries.

CURRENT SITUATION

In contrast to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) aforementioned reported cases

of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV), the European Center for Disease

Prevention and Control (ECDC) stated on May 23 that the global death toll from the

virus reached 205 out of 661 confirmed cases of the disease. We assess that such

discrepancies are likely connected to delays in reporting and aggregating data. However,

following a meeting of experts in Oman on May 15, the WHO stated that MERS-CoV has

yet to constitute an international emergency.

On May 26 in Iran, the Ministry of Health (MoH) announced the first cases of MERS-CoV

in the Kerman Province. The cases were diagnosed in two sisters, one of whom

reportedly died on May 29, while two additional family members are also suspected to

carry the virus. In response, the MoH stated that medical teams will be dispatched to

Saudi Arabia to monitor suspected cases among Iranian pilgrims, while check-ups for

such pilgrims are also being arranged upon their return to Iran.

In Jordan, on May 25, the MoH stated that an additional case of MERS-CoV was

recorded in a 60-year-old patient hospitalized in one of Amman’s hospitals. The man

reportedly traveled in Saudi Arabia several days earlier. The case marks the tenth since

the virus first appearance in the country in 2012, which includes five deaths.

In Kuwait, the MoH continues implement preventative measures, including reports from

May 27 that authorities will install infra-red cameras at two border checkpoints to

detect MERS-CoV. Such cameras are likely intended to measure fevers in travelers

coming from the highly infected neighboring country of Saudi Arabia. This follows

reports from May 20 that a 66-year-old man died after being diagnosed with MERS-CoV.

In North Africa, the first case of MERS-CoV in Tunisia was reported on May 20 following

the death of one man who also reportedly infected two of his relatives upon return from

a trip to Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Similarly, on May 31, the Ministry of Health in Algeria

confirmed two cases of MERS-CoV in the Tipasa and Tlemcen Regions among two men

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returning from Saudi Arabia. Egypt, preventive precautions remain in place following the

first cases in the end of April. On May 16, Cairo International Airport distributed masks

to its employees, while two passengers returning from pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia were

quarantined at the airport on May 15 and sent to Abbasiyah Hospital for further care. In

addition, likely due to the Egyptian Tourism Ministry's call for its citizens to delay

pilgrimages to Saudi Arabia on April 30, reports from May 19 indicate that a 25 percent

rate of cancellations for such trips to Mecca was recorded.

In Saudi Arabia, the MoH stated on May 30 that the death toll from MERS-CoV reached

187 out of 566 cases. This followed reports from May 26-27 that a “slowing down” in the

spread of the virus was being witnessed, including 24 hours “free of MERS in Saudi

Arabia”. This comes amidst ongoing measures undertaken to tackle the virus. Most

recently, on May 23, the MoH sent thousands of text messages to residents as part of

the ongoing public awareness campaign, which started on May 2. Moreover, reports

from May 22 indicate that the MoH is working with an international recruitment

company to provide the country with 304 specialized doctors and nurses to assist with

the virus. Meanwhile, given concerns regarding the increased potential for the spread of

infection in Mecca, given that it serves as a focal point for pilgrimages, the MoH issued

recommendations on May 17 for individuals over 65 and children under 12 to delay

short term plans for pilgrimage.

As highlighted by the case in Tunisia, individuals diagnosed with MERS-CoV continue to

be traced back to those with connections to Saudi Arabia. This includes in the

Netherlands, where the MoH stated on May 15 that their first case was recorded in a

traveler returning from Saudi Arabia. However, the U.S. Center for Disease Control and

Prevention (CDC) stated on May 28 that the patient diagnosed for MERS-CoV on May 11

after returning from Saudi Arabia was misdiagnosed.

In Oman, although the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries (MOAF) stated on May 21

that MERS-CoV was found in racing camels, it also indicated on May 22 that there is no

evidence that camels can transfer the virus to humans. This is in contrast to prevailing

perceptions and reports issued by organizations such as the WHO. On May 28, the

MOAF stated that only two deaths from the virus, none recently, have been recorded.

The UAE's MoH stated on May 26 that “all hospitals in the country are free from MERS-

CoV cases”. However, reports from May 23 indicate that the UAE reported three

additional cases on May 21 in males from Abu Dhabi.

In Bahrain, while the MoH remains at high alert since the first half of May, no cases of

MERS-CoV have been confirmed. In Lebanon, following the country’s first case on May

8, the Labor Ministry called for civilians to report any suspected cases, particularly in the

work place, to authorities. No further reports of infections have been reported in Qatar,

while, in Yemen, there have been no additional cases of the virus since the April 27 case.

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Notable Dates for the period of June 2014

Middle East and North Africa

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

June 27, 2014

The Holy Month of

Ramadan - the holiday

is observed from sunrise

to sunset, with Muslim

adherents refraining

from eating, drinking

and smoking.

Partial closures to public services

region-wide are possible over the

coming month. Those traveling in

the Middle East and North Africa are

advised to remain cognizant of

culture norms, particularly regarding

eating during daytime hours,

smoking and consumption of alcohol

in public. In some countries such acts

during Ramadan are illegal.

Egypt

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

June 2, 2014

June 5, 2014

June 14, 2014

Mohammed Morsi's

trial on espionage

charges has been

postponed to this date.

Official presidential

elections results are set

to be released.

Supreme Guide of the

Muslim Brotherhood

Mohammed Badie's trial

has been postponed to

this date.

Security measures are likely to be

heightened in New Cairo, where the

trial is taking place, and pro-Muslim

Brotherhood protests remain

possible outside the courthouse, and

in neighborhoods where such

protests are common. Avoid

nonessential travel to these

vicinities.

Although all preliminary results show

an overwhelming victory for Abdul

Fatah al-Sisi, the official results may

trigger large celebrations in public

squares in Cairo and Alexandria.

Maintain heightened vigilance in

these areas.

Heightened security measures and

pro-Muslim Brotherhood protests

are likely outside the Giza Criminal

Court on June 9. Avoid nonessential

travel to the vicinity of the

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courthouse.

Iran

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

June 4, 1989

June 5, 1963

June 5-6, 2014

Anniversary of Ayatollah

Ruhollah Khomeni’s

death.

The Revolt of Khordad

will be celebrated.

Iranian and P5+1 expert

level talks are slated

occur in Vienna.

Gatherings and other

commemorative events generally

take place throughout Iran, including

in Tehran, as well as in other major

cities, such as Esfahan. In Tehran, it

is advised to allot extra time for

travel, particularly in the vicinity of

the Ayatollah Khomeini’s tomb given

that the site will likely witness

thousands of visitors. In addition,

those operating or residing in Iran

are advised to reconfirm plans in

advance given that government

offices and places of business are

likely closed or working limited

hours.

The date marks an uprising that took

place throughout the country in

protest of the arrest of Ayatollah

Ruhollah Khomenini following a

speech criticizing Shah Mohammed

Reza Pahlavi, Israel, and the U.S.

Commemorative events are not

frequently observed on June 5. That

said, those operating or residing in

Iran are advised to reconfirm plans

in advance of June 5 given that

government offices and places of

business are likely to be closed or

working limited hours.

Expert level talks have been ongoing

as part of nuclear negotiations

between Iran and the P5+1. These

talks are designed to investigate the

technical aspects associated with the

implementation of agreements

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June 13, 869

June 16-20, 2014

The birthday of Imam

Mahdi will be

celebrated.

The fifth round of

negotiations between

Iran and the P5+1 is

slated to occur in

Vienna.

between the P5+1 and Iran under

the Joint Plan of Action (JPoA). No

action is necessary.

In the Ja’afar school of Shiism, which

is predominant in Iran, Imam Mahdi

is believed to be the savior of

humankind. Religious processions

and ceremonies are likely to occur

throughout the country, including in

Tehran and Isfahan. Those operating

or residing in Iran are advised to

reconfirm plans in advance given

that government offices and places

of business are likely closed or

working limited hours. It is further

advised to allot extra time for travel,

including in Tehran and Isfahan,

given the likelihood for large

gatherings on June 13.

Given the noted difficulty during the

fourth round of negotiations from

May 14-16, upcoming talks will carry

a heightened importance in

determining the final outcome of the

interim nuclear deal. This is

particularly evident given that they

come approximately one month

prior to the end of nuclear

negotiations. No action needed.

Israel

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

June 5, 1967

Naksa Day,

commemorates the

anniversary of the Six-

Day War, and is

observed by

Palestinians in the West

Bank, Gaza Strip, East

Jerusalem, and in

Pro-Palestinian protests are likely to

take place at various locations

throughout such areas, with tensions

remaining particularly elevated in

the Old City of Jerusalem. Defer

nonessential travel to the West

Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Old

City on this day.

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June 6, 1982

surrounding countries

that were involved in

the 1967 war.

Israel launched

"Operation Peace for

Galilee", invading

southern Lebanon to

remove Palestine

Liberation Forces (PLO).

Given heightened sensitivities

surrounding this day, there remains

an increased potential for isolated

border incidents along Israel's

frontier with Syria and Lebanon.

Jordan

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

June 10, 2014

Jordan Army Day (Also

known as "The Great

Arab Revolt Day) –

celebrates the Great

Arab Revolt in 1918, as

well as the Jordanian

Armed Forces and their

role in defending the

country.

Generally commemorated with

military parades attended by high

profile individuals, including King

Abdullah II. A heightened security

presence is likely throughout

Amman in addition to road closures.

Allot extra time for travel

throughout the city, remaining

cognizant of business closures given

the day is marked as a national

holiday.

Kuwait

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

June 16, 2014

June 22, 2014

Labor Union sit-in in

front of Labor Ministry

in Kuwait City.

Constitutional Court set

to rule on public

gatherings draft law

The laborers are calling on the

government to implement a unified

payroll system for public sector

employees. Maintain heightened

vigilance in the vicinity of the

demonstration.

The draft law will require all

gatherings to receive a license from

the Ministry of interior, banning all

gatherings without the license.

Gatherings will also be limited to

daylight hours. Given opposition to

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June 26, 2014

Elections to replace five

parliamentarians

the law, there remains a potential

for small demonstrations,

particularly in the al-Erada Square on

this date.

The elections are slated to replace

five parliamentarians, who resigned

in protest after the parliament

refused to question ("grill") the

prime minister regarding allegations

of corruption. Following multiple

requests to resign, on May 19 their

resignations were accepted. No

action is required.

Lebanon

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

June 6, 2014

June 9, 2014

Syndicate Coordinating

Committee (SCC)

ultimatum for passage

of a wage-scale increase

law.

Sixth Parliamentary

session to elect a

president

SCC representatives have threatened

to initiate a general strike if the law

is not passed by this date. In such a

scenario, mass demonstrations are

likely on this or over the following

days, near Parliament in central

Beirut.

On five previous occasions the

Parliament has failed select a

President, while at this time reports

indicate that there is no consensual

candidate. Outside of a major

breakthrough the session is likely to

resolve without a selection, or fail to

convene due to a lack of a quorum.

Libya

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

June 25, 2014

Planned Parliamentary

elections.

Given ongoing political tensions in

Tripoli and Major General Haftar's

announced opposition to imminent

parliamentary elections, there

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remains a heightened potential for

unrest surrounding the date,

including protests and rival militia

violence .Minimize nonessential

movement in Tripoli and Benghazi

on this date.

Saudi Arabia

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

June 18-19, 2014

Organization of Islamic

Cooperation (OIC) will

hold a two-day meeting

of foreign ministers in

Jeddah.

Traffic congestion and heightened

security should be anticipated in

Jeddah in the days leading up to and

surrounding the meeting. Allot extra

time for travel during this period.

Syria

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

June 3, 2014

June 30, 2014

Presidential elections

are slated to be held in

regime-held areas of

the county.

OPCW deadline for the

transfer or destruction

of all Syrian chemical

weapons

Given opposition to holding of

elections during the ongoing war,

there remains an increased risk of

mortar-based or mass casualty

attacks in regime-held cities,

We assess that the Assad regime is

unlikely to meet the final deadline

for the transfer of chemical

weapons, which has the potential to

increase calls for additional

investigations into the regime's

alleged continued use of chemical

weapons, particularly chlorine gas.

Tunisia

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

June 5, 2014

A protest has been

called for June 5 on

Tunis's Habib Bourguiba

Avenue, demanding the

repatriation of Tunisians

A similar protest was recorded on

May 26, delaying traffic for those

travelling in the area. That said, allot

extra time for travel and maintain

heightened vigilance in the vicinity of

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June 10, 2014

stranded in Iraq, Syria

and Mali.

Airport union members

have called for a general

strike on June 10.

the protest.

Airport officials will present

several demands, including the

right to organize and salary

improvements. Those conducting

travel through Enfidha-

Hammamet International Airport

and Tunis Carthage International

Airport are advised to confirm

travel itineraries planning for

possible delays, cancellations,

and long lines on June 10.

Turkey

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

June 1 -30, 2014

First anniversary of Gezi

Park protests in June

2013

Beyond the central commemorative

demonstration on May 31, intermittent

gatherings are likely to continue

throughout the month, with large

gatherings organized on several

occasions throughout the period.

Maintain vigilance in the vicinity of

Taksim Square in Istanbul, and areas in

its vicinity throughout June. Avoid the

general proximity of all political

gatherings.

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