Migration and the Pursuit of Graduate JobsMigration and the Pursuit of Graduate Jobs

by

Irene MoscaRobert E. Wright

Department of EconomicsUniversity of Strathclyde

November 4, 2009

“ “Making An Impact – Universities and the Regional Economy”Woburn House Conference Centre, London

Introduction

One of our objectives is to quantify the nature of graduate labour market flows between the countries and regions of the United Kingdom

Why?

•Not a great deal is known about this.

•Regional focus: England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales

•Export and import of graduates equally interesting as the export and import of goods and services

•Such Information is being fed into the CGE analysis

Slide 2/23

Policy Relevance: Scotland

• Concern with depopulation of rural and remote regions of Scotland

• Migration flows of students and graduates thought to “reinforce” migration flows of general population (north and west to the east)

• “Belief” that building HEIs in rural and remote regions will help reverse these trends

•Costs versus benefits of “free higher education”

•Over-education and under-employment issues

Slide 3/23

Table 1Percentage Growth Rates of Various Higher Education Student Groups,

1994/95-2007/08

Type of Student: Scotland UK

Full-time 26.2 37.5

Part-time 99.6 68.3

Under-graduates 38.1 46.5

Post-graduates 51.5 49.4

Foreign 100.4 108.8

Science 55.7 66.4

Non-science 30.3 36.2

All students 41.2 47.1

Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency

Table 2Place of Domicile of Students at Scottish Higher Education Institutes,

1994/05 and 2007/08

1994/05 2007/08

Place of domicile: Numbers % Numbers %

Scotland 103,426 69.5 148,460 70.6

England 20,819 14.0 21,560 10.3

Northern Ireland 4,443 3.0 4,800 2.3

Wales 645 0.4 675 0.3

Foreign16,915 11.4 33,895 16.1

Missing2,660 1.8 795 0.4

All148,908 100 210,185 100

Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency

Higher Education Statistical Agency (HESA) is the official agency for the collection, analysis and dissemination of quantitative information about higher education in the UK.

Match data from three datasets:

(1) Students in Higher Education Institutions(2) Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education Institutions

•13 cohorts of graduates: 1994/95 to 2006/2007

(3) Destinations of Leavers From Higher Education Longitudinal Survey

•1 cohort of graduates: 2002/03

DataData

Slide 10/23

The HESA data provide four key postal addresses: (1) Place of domiciledomicile(2) Place of studystudy(3) Place of employmentemployment: Six months after graduation: Six months after graduation(4)(4) Place of employment: 36 months after graduationPlace of employment: 36 months after graduation

This allows us to identify different migration types:

““movers versus stayers”movers versus stayers”

Table 3Place of Domicile/Place of Study Matrix

Place of Study

England Scotland Wales NI

Placeof Domicile

England 100%

Scotland 100%

Wales 100%

NI 100%

Table 4Place of Study/Place of Employment Six Months Matrix

Place of Employment Six months

England Scotland Wales NI

Placeof Study

England 100%

Scotland 100%

Wales 100%

NI 100%

Table 5Place of Study/Place of Employment Six Months Matrix

Place of Employment 36 months

England Scotland Wales NI

Placeof Employment

Six Months

England 100%

Scotland 100%

Wales 100%

NI 100%

Table 6

Percentage of Graduates Whose Place of Work is the Same as Their Place of Study (6 months)

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 England 97.3 97.5 97.5 97.4 Scotland 85.6 86.0 86.0 87.7 Wales 64.0 62.1 62.1 64.0 Northern Ireland 94.3 94.5 94.5 94.5

Source: HESA

Table 7

Percentage of Graduates From Different Regions Working in England (6 months), 2005/06

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 Scotland 12.6 12.2 11.6 10.8 Wales 35.2 37.0 35.0 35.3 Northern Ireland 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.3

Source: HESA

What are the determinants of graduate migration flows?

• Fit logit regression models where the probability of migrating is

related to observable characteristics

• Analysis for today focuses on the Scottish experience

• Today concerned mainly with Scottish-domiciled graduates who

studied at Scottish higher education institutions

• Consider “First-degree graduates” and “post-graduate graduates”

separately

• Fit similar models for England, Northern Ireland and Wales for

comparative purposes

FINDINGS

Scottish-domiciled “first-degree graduates”:

Probability of migrating to England or Wales or Northern Ireland after graduation is higher for:

•Male•Full-time•Black ethnic background•Graduated at age 22 (inverted U-shape)•Science (or Science-led)•1st Class degree•Russell Group university•Moved to go to HEI•Regional effect (higher for Strathclyde region)•Decline between 2002-2006

Scottish-domiciled “post-graduate graduates”

Probability of migrating to England or Wales or Northern Ireland after graduation is higher for:

• Male• Full-time• Non-white ethnic background• Graduated at age 26 (inverted U-shape)• Science (or Science-led)• Russell Group university• Moved to go to HEI• Regional effects of domicile less pronounced• Little change in 2002-2006

How big are these effects?

STEP 1: Create an hypothetical (first degree) graduate with the “average” characteristics of Scottish graduates and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating . GRADUATE “A”

STEP (2) Create another hypothetical (first degree) graduate with the following characteristics: •Male•Full-time•White ethnic background•Graduated at age 22 •Science•1st Class degree•Russell Group university

and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating . GRADUATE “B”

STEP (3) Compare the difference in the predicted probabilities

Predicted Probability of Migrating :Scottish-domiciled undergraduate graduates

Graduate A Graduate B

Scotland 3.9% 21.5%

Predicted Probability of Migrating :Scottish-domiciled undergraduate graduates

Graduate A Graduate B

Scotland 3.9% 21.5%

England 0.8% 2.0%

Northern Ireland 8.1% 26.7%

Wales 3.1% 11.4%

Conclusions?