Migration, Human Trafficking & Libya

MIGRATION, HUMAN

TRAFFICKING & LIBYA An Analysis into the Mediterranean Migrant

Problem

Matthew Thomas [email protected]

An Analysis into the Mediterranean Migrant Problem Matt Thomas

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Introduction The majority of news reports, especially in the countries surrounding the Mediterranean Sea, will be

currently focusing on the Mediterranean migration problem in which thousands of migrants are

dying every year trying to cross from Africa into Europe on boats in the search for a better life. This

has led to problems for the European Union and the migrants target countries who both have had to

increase spending on patrolling their territorial waters and boundaries to prevent migrants from

making the journey as well as initiating Search and Rescue (SAR) missions in the Mediterranean to

rescue any of the migrants that attempt the crossings. This analysis will look at the Central

Mediterranean route, with a specific focus on Libya, and its associated statistics. Then this analysis

will finishing by looking at the potential options for reducing the number of migrants who are dying

or entering Europe illegally.

Background As previously mentioned, this analysis will mainly look at the migrant situation by focusing in on the

departure point of Libya.

Libya has been in perpetual turmoil since the removal of Muammar Al-Gaddafi during the 2011

uprising, this uprising started in response to local and human rights issues as well as being a

following of the Arab Spring movements in neighbouring Egypt and Tunisia. The uprising turned into

a civil war with Gaddafi and his supporters facing against the National Transitional Council which had

backing from NATO which intervened after the UN Security Council issued a resolution1.

‘to take all necessary measures… to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under

threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, including Benghazi, while excluding an

occupation force.’

This intervention lead by NATO nations changed the cause of the war towards the side of the

National Transitional Council. However this victory was short lived as after the collapse of the

Gaddafi Regime the country descended into chaos with individual militias and groups taking control

of individual areas of the country effectively leaving the country without a government leading to

lawlessness and the rise of criminal elements. The civil war and the subsequent lawlessness also

having a knock-on effect of leading to a higher level of people fleeing the country via the

Mediterranean2.

‘...when the eruption of civil unrest in Tunisia and Libya in 2011 created a massive spike in

the number of migrants to more than 64 000 along this route.’

The migration issue however has been going on longer than the fighting of the civil war and its

chaotic aftermath, with migrants risking the journey to Europe across the Mediterranean as far back

as 20083. The reasons for migrants wanting to come to Europe through such a dangerous route can

be identified into push and pull factors. The main push factors include civil wars in other parts of

1 UN News Service Section, 'UN News - Security Council Authorizes ‘All Necessary Measures’ To

Protect Civilians In Libya' (2015) <http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=37808#.VT5SeiFViko> accessed 27 April 2015. 2 Frontex.europa.eu, 'Frontex | Central Mediterranean Route' (2015) <http://frontex.europa.eu/trends-

and-routes/central-mediterranean-route/> accessed 27 April 2015.


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Africa and Syria, Poverty and Political Instability3. Pull factors include the possibility of better

economic prospects, jobs and overall better lives, the rescue operations however are also beginning

to act as a pull factor due to the increased belief amongst the migrants and the traffickers that they

will be rescued no matter what happens.

Central Mediterranean Migration Route & Associated Statistics The area looked in detail for this case study is what the European Border Agency, Frontex, calls the

‘Central Mediterranean Route’3. The reason the this analysis is concentrating on this route is due to

the high numbers of migrants using it as well as the highest number of deaths due to human

trafficking has occurred on this route rather than any of the other routes identified by Frontex.

The Route is between the Libyan, Tunisian and Egyptian coasts and the islands of Lampedusa and

Malta.

Figure 1- Map Showing Migration Routes and High Risk Zone

Figure 1 is a map of the Central Mediterranean Area which is annotated to show in general where

the migrants are believed to depart from and the directions they will generally go. The data was

collected from Frontex4 5 quarterly reports. The other annotation included on the map is a general

3 Washington Post, 'The Real Reason for the Mediterranean Migrant Crisis' (2015) <http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/04/21/the-real-reason-for-the-mediterranean-migrant-crisis/> accessed 30 April 2015. 4 FRONTEX Risk Analysis Unit, 'FRAN Quarterly, Quarter 3' (FRONTEX 2015) <http://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/FRAN_Q3_2014.pdf> accessed 27 April 2015. 5 FRONTEX Risk Analysis Unit, 'FRAN Quarterly, Quarter 1' (FRONTEX 2014) <http://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/FRAN_Q1_2014.pdf> accessed 27 April 2015.


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area in which the highest incidents occur since around 2000 (i.e. Boats capsizing or drownings), this

data was collected and collated by Andrew Marszal6.

The Central Mediterranean Route in the last 5 years has seen a wildly fluctuating number of

detected crossings from Libya with 2008 seeing just under 40,000 people crossing which then drops

down to 4500 in 20102, the number then rises in the next four years to a total of approximately

170,000 migrants. The next set of statistics looks at the quarterly breakdown found in the Quarter 3

report, after a rise in 2011 up to around 25,000 migrants in the second quarter of that year, the

number of detections falls to an average of under 10,000 migrants which holds for the remaining

quarters of 2011 and holds until after the Q2 2013 where the number of detections rapidly rises

back up to 2011 levels. Throughout the Q4 2013 and the Q1 2014 the number of detections falls to

around 10,000 before it rises at an exponential rate from the Q2 2014 onwards rising to nearly

75,000 detections in Q3 20143.

In the years 2013 and 2014, a pattern emerges showing higher travel during the summer months

and a drop off in travel during the winter months which can be placed down to a calmer sea state to

allow for safer and easier crossings in the Mediterranean.

Another Graph in the Frontex 2014 3rd Quarter Analysis shows a week by week look at migrant

detections. It shows an almost bi-weekly fluctuation in the number of detections which the analysis

puts down to decisions made by the facilitators3.

‘…facilitation networks in Libya gathered migrants…until groups were big enough to fill the

available vessels to the limit, thus maximising profits for the facilitators.’

This shows the callous nature of the traffickers and their facilitators who only see the migrants as a

money making opportunity. The number of migrants crossing this route has overall increased since

2008 showing this route has become an important cash cow for the trafficking groups.

It is also important to look at which nationalities make up the migrants who are attempting to cross.

At the Sea Borders, the largest nationality group is Syrians with 17,245 crossing in Q4 2014. The next

largest group was Afghanis with 4,468 crossing in the same period. The other groups of nationalities

nearly all come from Africa barring Palestinian migrants7.

The figures for 2015 already are looking like they are going to be higher than previous years with

over 1,700 migrants dying so far this year which is unprecedented due to only 96 migrants dying in

the month of April. The number of migrants reaching Europe is expected to be higher than last year

with the April count standing over 25,000 migrants detected8.

What Can Be Done? Now that the extent of the problem has been looked at it is vital to look at the available option and

weigh up their positive and negatives in relation to two aims: that the solution saves lives and it is

6 Andrew Marszal, 'Migrant Deaths Attempting To Reach Europe By Sea Since 2000 | Cartodb' (Andrewmarszal.cartodb.com, 2015) <https://andrewmarszal.cartodb.com/viz/ae2b0bac-e831-11e4-80a2-0e853d047bba/embed_map> accessed 27 April 2015. 7 FRONTEX Risk Analysis Unit, 'FRAN Quarterly, Quarter 4' (FRONTEX 2014) <http://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/FRAN_Q4_2014.pdf> accessed 30 April 2015. 8 International Organization for Migration, 'IOM Monitors Migrant Arrivals, Deaths in Mediterranean' (2015) <http://www.iom.int/news/iom-monitors-migrant-arrivals-deaths-mediterranean> accessed 30 April 2015.


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cost effective i.e. does not use money in a wasteful fashion. The options are going to be laid out in

ascending order in which I believe will be the most effective method in answering the two stated

goals.

The least effective option will be the continuation of the status quo. Nothing will be achieved if the

maritime patrol, and search and rescue continues in the Mediterranean which I believe will only

continue to act as a magnet for more migrants to attempt the crossings due to the belief they will be

rescued if they get into difficulty. The next option being looked at is military action against the

smugglers and traffickers by targeting their boats inside of Libya, this option presents numerous

difficulties. One being the extreme difficulty in targeting the boats without damaging others not

involved in the trafficking. The difficulty of identifying which vessels are being used is shown below.

Figure 2- Image showing difficulty of identifying vessels in Tripoli Harbour

The image above shows that there are multiple vessels with this section of Tripoli harbour which

match the size and capabilities of the usual vessels utilised by the traffickers. The military option has

a higher chance of injuring or killing non-combatants as well as damaging or destroying vessels not

involved in the trafficking business which would lead to backlash against the operation not only from

within Libya but from the rest of the world as well.

The next option is an action which involves preventing the boats from leaving Libyan coastal waters

via a naval blockade. This option should be similar to the Australian Operation Resolute which aims

to “…to protect Australia's borders and offshore maritime interests.”9 The operation aims to

intercept illegal entry vessels and direct its occupants to other local nations to prevent illegal settling

within Australia. This option in the Mediterranean would consist of turning the vessels either back

towards Libya or towards an agreed second country to take the migrants in. This method will act as a

deterrent due to the fact the migrants get rescued but they don’t reach Europe. This method may

take a while to implement and to get word to spread that the boats won’t get to Europe, hopefully

leading to less migrant traffic going through the Central Mediterranean part of the European

borders.

The final option is a double pronged law enforcement and intelligence operation concentrating on

capturing the traffickers and damaging their capability to traffic migrants across the Mediterranean.

This option will require ‘boots on the ground’ to be effective. The operation would be in two phases:

9 Department of Defence Commonwealth of Australia, ‘Home: Border Protection, Department Of Defence' (Defence.gov.au, 2015) <http://www.defence.gov.au/operations/BorderProtection/> accessed 1 May 2015.


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the first phase will be to build up the picture of the trafficker’s command structures and their

location within Libya and the second phase will tactical operations against the traffickers in

conjunction with allied Libyan forces. By removing the traffickers, the ability of crossing the

Mediterranean from Libya will be removed leading to this part of the Mediterranean becoming safer

as well as encouraging migrants to go through official methods of applying to enter Europe.

The last options should be used as the basis for action to solve the migrant problem in the

Mediterranean Sea as they directly deal with the issues involved rather than the other two options

which only apply cosmetic fixes and not directly deal with the methods of the migrants to attempt to

cross to Europe.

Conclusions The issue of migrants attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea will simply not go away until action

is taken to remove the push and pull factors which drives the migrants towards Europe, however

some of these factors cannot easily be removed. However the options laid out in the analysis should

contribute to the reduction in the number of crossings and in turn will reduce the deaths that have

occur because of the illegal crossing attempts. This issue needs to be taken seriously within Europe

by politicians instead of using the plight of the migrants as a political tool.


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Bibliography Commonwealth of Australia D, ‘Home: Border Protection, Department Of Defence' (Defence.gov.au,

2015) <http://www.defence.gov.au/operations/BorderProtection/> accessed 1 May 2015

FRONTEX Risk Analysis Unit, 'FRAN Quarterly, Quarter 1' (FRONTEX 2014)

(http://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/FRAN_Q1_2014.pdf) accessed 27 April

2015

FRONTEX Risk Analysis Unit, 'FRAN Quarterly, Quarter 3' (FRONTEX 2015)

(http://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/FRAN_Q3_2014.pdf) accessed 27 April

2015

FRONTEX Risk Analysis Unit, 'FRAN Quarterly, Quarter 4' (FRONTEX 2014) <http://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/FRAN_Q4_2014.pdf> accessed 30 April 2015. Frontex.europa.eu, 'Frontex | Central Mediterranean Route' (2015)

(http://frontex.europa.eu/trends-and-routes/central-mediterranean-route/) accessed 27 April 2015

International Organization for Migration, 'IOM Monitors Migrant Arrivals, Deaths In Mediterranean'

(2015) (http://www.iom.int/news/iom-monitors-migrant-arrivals-deaths-mediterranean) accessed

30 April 2015

Marszal A, 'Migrant Deaths Attempting to Reach Europe by Sea Since 2000 | Cartodb'

(Andrewmarszal.cartodb.com, 2015) (https://andrewmarszal.cartodb.com/viz/ae2b0bac-e831-11e4-

80a2-0e853d047bba/embed_map) accessed 27 April 2015

UN News Service Section, 'UN News - Security Council Authorizes ‘All Necessary Measures’ To

Protect Civilians In Libya' (2015)

(http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=37808#.VT5SeiFViko) accessed 27 April 2015

Washington Post, 'The Real Reason for the Mediterranean Migrant Crisis' (2015)

<http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/04/21/the-real-reason-for-the-

mediterranean-migrant-crisis/> accessed 30 April 2015

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Migration, Human Trafficking & Libya