1

ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo universiteti

ekonomikisa da biznesis fakulteti

laSa labaZe

saqarTvelos soflis meurneobaSi investiciebis efeqtianobis Sefaseba

mikroekonomikuri modeliT

ekonomikis doqtoris akademiuri xarisxis

mosapoveblad warmodgenili sadisertacio naSromis

a v t o r e f e r a t i

Tbilisi

2015

2

naSromi Sesrulebulia ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo

universitetis ekonomikisa da biznesis fakultetis mikroekonomikis

kaTedraze

samecniero xelmZRvaneli: eTeri xaraiSvili

profesori,

ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis

Tbilisis saxelmwifo universiteti

oficialuri Semfaseblebi:

1. ekaterine zviadaZe

ekonomikis akademiuri doqtori,

saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis saministro

politikisa da analitikis departamentis ufrosi

2. fati mamardaSvili

ekonomikis akademiuri doqtori,

Tsu ekonomikis saerTaSoriso skola

disertaciis dacva Sedgeba 2015 wlis 28 maiss, 14:00 saaTze ivane

javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetis ekonomikisa

da biznesis fakultetis sadisertacio sabWos sxdomaze

misamarTi: 0186, Tbilisi, universitetis q.2; Tsu X korpusi, auditoria N206.

disertaciis gacnoba SesaZlebelia ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis

saxelmwifo universitetis samecniero biblioTekaSi

sadisertacio sabWos swavluli mdivani

ekonomikis akademiuri doqtori m.lobJaniZe

3

avtoreferatis struqtura

Temis aqtualuroba ....................................................................................................................................................... 4

kvlevis miznebi da amocanebi ..............................................................................................................................5

kvlevis obieqti da sagani ..................................................................................................................................... 6

naSromis ZiriTadi sakiTxebis sistematizacia .............................................................................. 8

kvlevis mecnieruli siaxleebi ...................................................................................................................... 24

sadisertacio naSromis moculoba ............................................................................................................ 24

sadisertacio naSromis struqtura ................................................................................ 25

4

Temis aqtualuroba

saqarTvelosTvis agraruli seqtori yovelTvis mniSvnelovan rols

asrulebda, radgan ekonomikurTan erTad igi socialuri xasiaTis

matarebelicaa Tavisi 3500-ze meti sofliTa da masSi mcxovrebi mosaxleobis

naxevriT. wlebis ganmavlobaSi arasakmarisma investiciebma mniSvnelovnad

daaknina aRniSnuli seqtori da sofeli gaRaribda. soflis meurneoba

darCa dabalganviTarebul sferod, romlisTvisac damaxasiaTebeli gaxda

Sromis dabali mwarmoebluroba. wlebis ganmavlobaSi mcirdeboda

damuSavebuli miwebis raodenoba.

alternatiuli dafinansebis naklebobam ganapiroba ucxour investiciebze

aqcentireba, romelsac unda daeZlia siRaribe soflad. Tumca, am

mimarTulebiTac ver iqna warmateba miRweuli, radgan arsebobda mTeli

rigi problemebi, kerZod, politikuri arastabiluroba, ganuviTarebeli

miwis bazari, ucxoel investorebsa da adgilobriv mosaxleobas Soris

warmoSobili konfliqtebi da a.S. soflis meurneobis mniSvnelobas zrdis

is faqtic, rom miuxedavad fermeruli meurneobis dabali

komercializaciisa, agro produqtebs mniSnelovani roli eniWeba sxva

seqtorebis ganviTarebasa da maT konkurentunarianobaSi. magaliTad,

soflis meurneobis nawarmi aris mniSvnelovani Sualeduri moxmarebis

produqtebi damamuSavebeli mrewvelobisTvis. 2013 wels damamuSavebelma

mrewvelobam Tavis warmoebaSi sul 437 mln laris Rirebulebis soflis

meurneobis produqti moixmara1.

amdenad, dRis wesrigSi dadga sakiTxi ara marto imis Sesaxeb, SeuZliaT

Tu ara pirdapir ucxour investiciebs, wvlili Seitanos soflis

ganviTarebaSi, aramed isic, Tu ra gavlenas iqoniebs soflis meurneobaSi

investiciebi sxvadasxva seqtorisa da mTlianad qveynis ekonomikis

1saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri, resursebisa da gamoyenebis cxrilebi

http://geostat.ge/?action=page&p_id=739&lang=geo

5

ganviTarebaze. es kompleqsuri problema mravali mimarTulebiT,

siRrmiseul analizs saWiroebs. saqarTveloSi dRemde ar Catarebula

raodenobrivi gaTvlebi imis Sesaxeb, Tu ra gavlena eqneba soflis

meurneobis seqtorSi ganxorcielebul investiciebs qveynis eqsportsa da

importze. magaliTad, saqarTvelo rZisa da xorcis wminda importioria.

mxolod frinvelisa da kvercxis nawarmi, isic nawilobriv, akmayofilebs

adgilobriv moTxovnas.

aRniSnuli kvlevis sakiTxebi mniSvnelovania im mraval gamowvevas Soris,

romlis winaSec dgas dRes saqarTvelos soflis meurneoba. swored amitom,

aucilebelia gavaanalizoT soflis meurneobis seqtorSi sainvesticio

garemo, dagegmili Tu mimdinare investiciebis mosalodneli Sedegebi,

rogorc mosaxleobis keTildReobis gaumjobesebis kuTxiT, aseve, SevafasoT

misi gavlena calkeul seqtorebsa da mTlianad ekonomikaze. amgvari kvleviT

SesaZlebeli gaxdeba ukeT warmoCndes inkluziuri da mdgradi

ganviTarebisTvis soflis meurneobis seqtoris mniSvneloba.

kvlevis miznebi da amocanebi

kvlevis ZiriTadi mizania zogadi wonasworobis modelis gamoyenebiT,

soflis meurneobaSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebis gavlenis Sefaseba

umuSevrobaze, mTlian Sida produqtze, fasebze, vaWrobaze, realur

xelfasze da problemebis identifikaciiT am seqtoris ganviTarebis

rekomendaciebis SemuSaveba.

aRniSnuli miznis misaRwevad Semdegi amocanebis gadawyveta davisaxeT:

• saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis seqtoris sainvesticio garemos

Seswavla;

• soflis meurneobis seqtoris ganviTarebis (mosaxleoba,

siRaribis maCvenebeli, miwis fondi, soflis meurneobis mTliani

6

warmoeba, pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi seqtorebis mixedviT da

sxv.) tendenciebis analizi;

• socialuri aRricxvis matricis ageba;

• ekonomikis modelis Teoriuli safuZvlebis SemuSaveba

Sesabamisi sargeblianobisa da warmoebis funqciebis SerCeviT;

• statikuri, zogadi wonasworobis modelis Seqmna da

investiciebis simulaciuri asaxva kompiuteruli programa GAMs-is

gamoyenebiT;

• integrirebuli Sinameurneobebis kvlevis monacemTa analizi

regionul WrilSi kompiuteruli programa STATA- s gamoyenebiT;

• sxva qveynebis gamocdilebis Seswavla soflis meurneobaSi

investiciebis mozidvis kuTxiT, aseve, ucxoelebze miwis gasxvisebis

sakiTxebis analizi da sxv.

kvlevis obieqti da sagani

kvlevis obieqtia saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis seqtori rogorc qveynis

masStabiT, aseve regionul WrilSi.

kvlevis sagans warmoadgens saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis seqtorSi

ganxorcielebuli investiciebis efeqtianobis analizi mikroekonomikuri

modelirebis gamoyenebiT, Sefaseba imisa, Tu ra gavlenas moaxdens soflis

meurneobis seqtorSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebi soflad dasaqmebuli

mosaxleobis keTildReobaze; rogor Semcirdeba uTanasworoba qalaqsa da

sofels Soris. aseve, rogori gavlena eqneba soflis meurneobaSi

investiciebs mTliani Sida produqtze, eqsportze, importze da umuSevrobze

regionul WrilSi. kvlevis sagans, aseve, warmoadgens saqarTvelos soflis

meurneobis ganviTarebis dinamikisa da arsebuli mdgomareobis analizi,

gaxorcielebuli da mimdinare proeqtebis da programebis Sefaseba.

7

kvlevis Teoriuli da meTodologiuri safuZvlebi

naSromis Teoriul safuZvels warmoadgens:

• qarTvel da ucxoel mecnierTa saxelmZRvaneloebi,

monografiebi, kvlevebi, Sefasebebi, statiebi; maT Soris: saqarTvelos

Tanainvestirebis fondis mier gamoqveynebuli sainvesticio gegmebis

Sesaxeb informacia, evropis kavSiris samezoblo programis

farglebSi ganxorcielebuli kvleva soflis meurneobisa da soflis

ganviTarebis Sesaxeb, liberaluri akademiis mier gamoqveynebuli

kvleva saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis sferos transformaciis

Sesaxeb da a.S.

• kolorados universitetis ekonomikis fakultetis mier

SemuSavebuli zogadi wonasworobis maTematikuri programirebis

sistemis saxelmZRvanelo, romelic efuZneba rTuli (Sedgenili)

Canacvlebis, mudmivi elastikurobis mqone sawarmoo funqciebs.

• saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris mier

gamoqveynebuli Sinameurneobebis integrirebuli gamokvlevis

monacemTa bazebi, gamoyenebisa da resursebis cxrilebi da wliuri

publikaciebi;

• saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis saministrosa da finansTa

saministros mier gamoqveynebuli masalebi da oficialuri

statistikuri monacemebi.

naSromis meTodologiuri safuZvlebi gaxlavT statistikuri analizis

sxvadasxva xerxi, socialuri matricis agebisa da analizis meTodebi,

zogadi wonasworuli modelis agebisa da simulaciuri scenarebis analizis

safuZvlebi.

8

naSromis ZiriTadi sakiTxebis sistematizacia

Tavi 1. saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis ganviTarebis mimoxilva

saqarTvelos soflis meurneoba dabali mwarmoeblurobis Sedegad Zalian

nela viTardeboda. 2004-2013 wlebSi realuri mSp saSualod 5.9%-iT

izrdeboda, Tumca soflis meurneobaSi mSp 0.6%-iT Semcirda. praqtikulad,

am maCveneblis zedized gaumjobesebis precedenti ar yofila. miuxedavad am

seqtorSi samuSao Zalis siWarbisa, soflis meurneobis wili mTlian Sida

produqtSi, erT-erTi yvelaze dabali iyo ekonomikis sxva seqtorebTan

SedarebiT da 8-13% intervalSi meryeobda. saSualo wliuri mosavalic

cvalebadi iyo da 2010 wlis CaTvliT Semcirebis tendencias hqonda adgili.

gaumjobeseba SeiniSneboda momdevno wlebSi, Tumca 2013 wels, 1990 welTan

SedarebiT damuSvebuli farTobebis moculoba 2-jer naklebi iyo.

mdgomareobas isic amwvavebs, rom mosaxleobis daaxloebiT 46% soflad

cxovrobs da agrarul seqtorSi dasaqmebuli saojaxo meurneobebi

Seadgens mTeli samuSao Zalis 43%-s. aqedan gamomdinare, soflis meurneoba

saqarTvelos ekonomikis sakvanZo sferoa ara marto ekonomikuri, aramed

socialuri kuTxiTac. miuxedavad imisa, rom soflis meurneobis wili mSp-

Si dabalia, soflad mcxovreb ojaxTa Semosavlebis 45% swored soflis

meurneobaze modis.

saqarTvelo CamorCeba sxva qveynebs mwarmoeblurobaSi da qarTuli soflis

meurneobis produqti ar aris msoflio bazarze konkurentunariani. ver

ganviTarda arsebuli, TviTmoxmarebaze orientirebuli Sinameurneobebi da

maT ver SeiZines komerciuli xasiaTi, rac produqtis realizebas

gulisxmobs. saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris mier, 2013 wels

Catarebuli Sinameurneobebis integrirebuli gamokvlevis monacemTa

analiziT davadgineT, rom saqarTvelos regionebis mixedviT, soflis

meurneobis produqtebis gayidvidan miRebuli Semosavali mTliani

Semosavlis 4-19% Soris meryeobs. soflis meurneobaSi yvelaze maRali

xarisxis komercializacia dafiqsirda samcxe-javaxeTis regionSi _

9

sasoflo sameurneo produqtis gayidvidan miRebuli Semosavlis wili, 19%-

s Seadgens. meore adgilzea kaxeTi 11%-iani wiliT. es niSnavs, rom samcxe-

javaxeTSi fermerebi soflis meurneobis produqtebis gayidvidan

daaxloebiT 2-jer met Semosavals iReben, vidre kaxeTis fermerebi

axerxeben. rac Seexeba sxva regionebs, isini samcxe-javaxeTs kidev ufro

metad CamorCebian. magaliTad, aWaraSi sasoflo-sameurneo produqtis

gayidvidan miRebuli Semosavli mTliani Semosavlis mxolod 4%-ia. samcxe-

javaxeTis warmatebas Tavisi mizezebi aqvs, rac warmodgenil sadisertacio

naSromSi detalurad aris gaanalizebuli. ZiriTadi faqtori, soflebis

urbanul dasaxlebebTan damakavSirebeli gzebis gaumarTavobaa, rac

soflad macxovreblebs, bazrebze produqtis gasaRebis problemas uqmnis.

saqarTveloSi soflis meurneobis dabali mwarmoeblurobis problemis

mogvarebis erT-erTi gza soflis meurneobaSi investiciebis

ganxorcielebaa. soflis meurneobaSi kapitalis formireba, axali

teqnologiebis danergva, nou-haus Semotana da ganaTlebis amaRleba

cnobili eqspertuli mosazrebebia, romlebic sadavo aravisTvisaa. amasTan

erTad, rigi eqspertebi Tanxmdebian, rom mwarmoeblurobis amaRlebisTvis

aucilebelia danawevrebuli fermeruli meurneobebis gamsxvileba. soflad

macxovrebelTa did nawils ar uRirs Tavisi mcire zomis miwis damuSaveba,

ararentabeluria manqana-danadgarebis SeZenac, rac mwarmoeblurobas

aamaRlebda. rig SemTxvevebSi, soflad macxovrebelTa miwa daumuSavebeli

rCeba, radgan adgili aqvs samsaxuris saSovnelad soflidan urbanul

dasaxlebebSi gadasvlas.

mdgomareobis ukeT Sesafaseblad Cven detalurad gavaanalizoT soflis

meurneobaSi yvelaze mniSvnelovani resursis - miwis bazris ganviTareba,

rasac warmodgenili sadisertacio naSromis erTi qveTavi eTmoba. miwis

reforma erT-erTi mniSvnelovani socialur-ekonomikuri movlenaa, romelic

mimdinare procesSia da jer ar dasrulebula.

10

sasoflo-sameurneo daniSnulebis miwis sakuTrebis Sesaxeb kanonSi mravali

cvlileba Sevida, romelic detalurad gavaanalizeT da naTlad

gamovkveTeT problemis arsi. miuxedavad imisa, rom sxva qveynebSic arsebobs

garkveuli SezRudvebi, regulaciebi naklebad mkacria da tovebs garkveuli

gamonaklisebis SesaZloblobas. saqarTvelos SemTxvevaSi ki damajerebeli

dasabuTebis gareSe Zalze xisti da yovlismomcveli akrZalva

gaumarTlebeli iyo. saqarTvelos mTavrobis mier sasoflo-sameurneo

daniSnulebis miwis erTiani saxelmwifo politikis SemuSaveba da miwis

kadastris organizeba calsaxad dadebiTi iniciativaa, rac miwaTmowyobis

erTiani sistemis organizebas da saboloo jamSi miwis bazris ganviTarebas

Seuwyobs xels, Tumca, am procesSi ar unda dazaraldes qveynis ekonomikuri

interesebi. investorebis mozidva ki mzardi ekonomikis pirobebSi mTavrobis

umniSvnelovanesi interesi unda iyos.

naSromSi aseve gavaanalizeT sasoflo-sameurneo dargis ganviTarebis

aucilebeli piroba - kreditebis xelmisawvdomoba. efeqtiani sasoflo-

sameurneo dafinansebis sistemis Seqmna bevr sirTulesTanaa dakavSirebuli,

gansakuTrebiT gardamavali ekonomikis qveynebSi, sadac finansuri bazari

jer kidev Camoyalibebis procesSia, xolo soflis meurneoba Sesabamisi

infrastruqturis ganuviTareblobis, primitiuli teqnologiebis

gamoyenebisa da saWiro informaciis SezRuduli misawvdomobis gamo

dabalrentabeluri, maRalriskiani da arastabiluri seqtoria. es is

mizezebia, romelTa gamoc bankebi sasoflo-sameurneo seqtors maRali

riskis sferod miiCneven da romlebic, Sesabamisad, soflis meurneobis

finansuri bazris Camoyalibebas uSlis xels.

soflis meurnebaSi sainvesticio kapitalis SemosvlisTvis ukiduresad

mniSvnelovania sasoflo-sameurneo dakreditebisa da dazRvevis sistemis

ganviTareba. swored am mimarTulebiT gadadgmuli nabiji iqneboda

grZelvadiani efeqtis mqone struqturuli xasiaTis reforma. erovnuli

bankis statistikuri monacemebis mixedviT 2014 wels soflis meurneobaze

11

komerciuli bankebis mier gacemuli sesxebis (rogorc larSi, aseve ucxour

valutaSi) mxolod daaxloebiT 3% modis.

saqarTveloSi realurad arsebobs moTxovna agrodazRvevaze. agrodazRvevis

sistemis Camoyalibebisa da ganviTarebis mimarTulebiT saxelmwifo CaerTo.

2014 wlis 1 seqtembridan, saqarTveloSi saxelmwifo agrodazRvevis

sapilote programa amoqmedda, romelic 2015 wlis 1 setembramde imuSavebs.

Tumca, am etapze, aucilebelia fermerTa gadamzadeba, agrodazRvevis

sakiTxebze cnobadobis amaRleba da informireba, raTa maqsimaluri Sedegi

iqnes miRweuli. saqarTveloSi soflis meurneobis dargis ganviTarebas

mniSvnelovnad Seuwyobs xels agrodazRvevis sistemis amoqmedeba.

agrodazRveva soflad mcxovreb mosaxleobas daexmareba stiqiuri

movlenebiT miyenebuli zaralis sagrZnoblad SeamcirebaSi da stabiluri

gaxdeba maT Semosavlebi. agrodazRvevis amoqmedeba soflis meurneobis

seqtoris mimarT safinanso institutebis interess gazrdis. fermerebisTvis

xelmisawvdomi gaxdeba finansuri resursi, rac dargis stabilur

ganviTarebas Seuwyobs xels.

naSromSi detalurad ganvixileT soflis meurneobaSi mimdinare proeqtebi

da programebi, rogorc saxelmwifos, aseve donori organizaciebis mier

dafinansebuli. 2012 wlidan mniSvnelovnad gaizarda soflis meurneobis

saministros biujeti da mravali programa ganxorcielda. 2012 wlamde

soflis macxovreblebze subsidiebis gacema sxva araferi iyo, Tu ara wminda

politikuri gadawyvetileba, socialuri daxmarebis TvalsazrisiT da ara

soflis ganviTarebisken gadadgmuli nabiji.

arsebuli monacemebis analizze dayrdnobiT naSromSi gavaanalizeT soflis

meurneobis potenciali. ZiriTadi daskvna is aris, rom qveyanas bevri

alternativa ar gaaCnia. Znelad, magram gaTviTcnobierda, rom rTulia

axladCamoyalibebuli samrewvelo da momsaxurebebis mimwodebeli firmebis

SenarCuneba Ria globalur ekonomikaSi, gansakuTrebiT ki kvalificiuri da

disciplinirebuli samuSao Zalis naklebobis pirobebSi. Tumca, aseve

12

arsebobs bevri sxva mizezi imisa, Tu ratom SeiZleba gaxdes soflis

meurneoba qarTuli ekonomikis erT-erTi mamoZravebeli Zala.

pirveli, SeiZleba bevrs miaCndes, rom saqarTvelos soflis meurneoba ufro

socialuri usafrTxoebis qselia asiaTasobiT arasaTanadod dasaqmebuli

individisaTvis, magram es aris seqtori, sadac jer kidev SeiZleba didi

Sedegis miRweva mcire ZalisxmeviT. anu, mwarmoeblurobis zrda

mokrZalebuli investiciebis, organizaciuli da procesualuri sakiTxebis

daxvewiTac miiRweva.

meore, unda gaviTvaliswinoT, rom aRmosavleT aziis mravalma qveyanam

maRal ekonomikur zrdas sawyis etapze swored soflis meurneobis sferos

ganviTarebiT miaRwia. sasoflo-sameurneo mwarmoeblurobis zrdam Sedegad

moitana investiciebi urbanul dasaxlebebSi msubuqi mrewvelobis

ganviTarebaSi. eqsportze orientirebuli industrializacia SeiZleba

gamowveva iyos saqarTvelosnairi qveynisaTvis, soflis meurneobaSi

mwarmoeblurobis zrdiT gamowveuli ekonomikuri keTildReoba ki sxva

seqtorebis bunebriv ganviTarebas uyris safuZvels.

mesame, globaluri tendenciebis gaTvaliswinebiT, moTxovna mzardia

soflis meurneobis diferencirebul (rogorc pirvelad, aseve

gadamuSavebul) produqtebze. saqarTvelos am kuTxiT rigi upiratesobebi

aqvs, rogoricaa niadagi da klimaturi pirobebi, unikaluri kultura da

tradiciebi. am upiratesobebis gamoyenebiT, qveyanas aqvs potenciali Seqmnas

gansakuTrebuli da maRali Rirebulebis mqone, geografiulad

dominirebuli produqtebi, CaerTos gadamamuSavebeli mrewvelobis

inovaciur procesebSi da misdios organul soflis meurneobas.

meoTxe, Warbi produqciis komercializacia soflis macxovreblebs

siRaribis daZlevaSic daexmareba da Tanamedrove komerciul sazogadoebaSi

funqcionirebis unarebsac SesZens.

13

Tavi 2. investiciebis Sedegebis Semafasebeli kvlevebis mimoxilva

am TavSi ganvixileT arsebuli kvlevebi, romlebSic asaxulia soflis

meurneobis seqtorSi investiciebis efeqtianobis Sefaseba, aseve,

gaanalizebulia maTi roli Semosavlebis uTanasworobis problemis

gadaWraSi. masalebis mimoxilva sainteresoa ori TvalsazrisiT: erTi mxriv,

gavecaniT sxvadasxva dros sxva qveynebSi Catarebuli kvlevis Sedegebs da

gamoikveTa is meTodologiebi, romlebze dayrdnobiTac ama Tu im maCvenebls

iTvlian. aseve, ganvixileT saqarTvelos soflis meurneobaSi

ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis ramdenime magaliTi.

naSromSi detalurad gavaanalizeT araerTi naSromi, romlebSic soflis

meurneobis ganviTarebisTvis investiciebis mniSvnelobazea mocemuli

Sefasebebi. Tumca, literaturaSi aRiniSneba urTierTsawinaaRmdego

daskvnebi investiceibis efeqtianobasTan dakavSirebiT. realurad, 2003 wlis

Semdgom periodSi, saqarTvelom didi sagareo finansuri daxmareba miiRo.

am daxmarebis xarjze garkveulwilad daiwyo ekonomikis winsvla, magram

arsebiTad ver moxda siRaribis daZleva da dasaqmebis problemis gadaWra.

amgvari Sedegebis analizisTvis Catarebulma sxvadasxva kvlevam cxadyo,

rom urbanuli ganviTarebis nacvlad soflis meurneobis ganviTareba unda

yofiliyo prioriteti. magaliTad, eTiopiis SemTxvevaSi mkvlevarebma

aCvenes, rom urbanul ganviTarebaSi Cadebulma investiciebma ver

uzrunvelyo Raribi mosaxleobis (rogorc, soflad, ise qalaqad)

keTildReobis maCveneblis sasikeTod Secvla, Tumca, mTlianobaSi

garkveuli ekonomikuri winsvla dafiqsirda. aseTi Sedegebi metwilad

gamowveuli iyo resursebis gadinebiT soflidan urbanuli dasaxlebebSi,

ramac sameurneo warmoebis mkveTri Semcireba gamoiwvia da gazarda fasebi

agrosasursaTo produqtze. msgavsi Sedegebi gansakuTrebiT mwvavea im

qveynebisTvis, sadac mosaxleobis umetesobis Semosavali saarsebo minimumis

qvemoTaa. sapirispiro SemTxvevaSi, roca investiciebi xorcieldeba soflis

14

meurneobis ganviTarebaSi, mTlianad ekonomikis zrdis maCvenebeli arcTu

ise zrdadia, Tumca mosaxleobis keTildReoba soflad da qalaqebSic

SesamCnevad umjobesdeba. pakistanis magaliTze, sadac ekonomikis safuZveli

soflis meurneobaa, analogiuri Sedegebi miiRes sxva mkvlevarebmac.

kvlevebis avtorebi mividnen im daskvnamde, rom warmoebis daCqarebuli

winsvla uzrunvelyofs saSualo ojaxis Semosavlis gazrdas,

gansakuTrebiT ki, Rarib mosaxleobaSi. soflis meurneobis ganviTareba

xels Seuwyobs rogorc sameurneo, ise, arasameurneo dargSi dasaqmebulTa

Semosavlebisa da warmoebis maCveneblis gazrdas. meti produqti Seamcirebs

fasebs da aRmofxvris sakvebis deficits. saqarTvelos msgavsad, pakistanis

mSp-Si soflis meurneobis wili nel-nela mcirdeboda, roca Raribi

mosaxleobis umetesi nawili sofladaa dasaxlebuli. amgvarad,

agrowarmoebis xelSewyoba am tipis qveynebSi Zalzed mniSvnelovania.

mkvlevarebma indoneziisaTvis Seqmnes CGE modeli, romelic asaxavda

ganviTarebad qveynebSi ekonomikuri reformebis gavlenas makroekonomikur

maCveneblebsa da Semosavlebis gadanawilebaze qalaqad da soflad

mcxovreb ojaxebs Soris. modelis daxmarebiT, statikur da dinamikur

simulaciebze dayrdnobiT gamoaSkaravda, rom politikam, romelmac iqonia

pozitiuri gavlena indoneziis makroekonomikur mdgomareobaze,

imavdroulad umniSvnelod gaauaresa Semosavlebis gadanawileba.

ugandisTvis Seqmnili CGE modelis safuZvelzec gaanalizda kavSiri

ekonomikur zrdasa da siRaribis daZlevas Soris makro da mikro-ekonomikur

doneebze. naSromi, aseve moicavs, soflis meurneobis seqtorSi, saxelmwifos

mier dasaxuli miznebis misaRwevad saWiro resursebis Sefasebas. maT

analizze dayrdnobiT, agrowarmoebis mdgradi ganviTarebisTvis saWiroa

ufro meti da efeqtiani investiciebis ganxorcieleba soflis meurneobaSi

da, aseve, saxelmwifo danaxarjebis optimizacia. dasaxuli miznebis

misaRwevad aucilebelia saxelmwifo biujetis mexuTedis soflis

15

meurneobis seqtorSi Cadeba, rac SesamCnevad Seamcirebs saarsebo minimumis

zRvarze dabla myofi mosaxleobis ricxvs da gaaumjobesebs cxovrebis

dones urbanul da ruralur dasaxlebebSi.

naSromSi gaanalizebulia e.w. „rikardos xafangi“. Tu davuSvebT, rom

soflis meurneobis ganviTareba stagnaciuri darCeba, maSin gaizrdeba

dasaqmebis maCvenebeli arasasoflo-sameurneo sferoSi, produqtebze fasebi

ki moimatebs, rasac mohyveba arasasoflo-sameurneo seqtorSi dasaqmebulTa

realuri xelfasebis Semcireba da mrewvelobis dargebis ganviTarebis

Seferxeba. Sedegad vaskvniT, rom soflis meurneobisa da sxva danarCeni

dargebis ganviTareba ar SeiZleba erTmaneTisgan damoukideblad

warimarTos.

ucxouri investiciebis Semosvlas gadamwyveti mniSvneloba aqvs gardamavali

ekonomikis qveynebisTvis, miTumetes Sida investiciebis ar arsebobis

SemTxvevaSi. qveynebi pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis mosazidad sxvadasxva

xerxs mimarTaven. gansxvavebuli politikis gatarebiT cdiloben

konkurencia gauwion erTmaneTs pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis misaRebad.

naSromSi warmodgenili literaturis analiziT vaskvniT, rom ama Tu im

qveynis kerZo maxasiaTeblebis gaTvaliswinebiT pirdapiri ucxouri

investiciebi Seamcirebs Semosavlebis uTansaworobas Rarib, ganviTarebad

qveynebSi, magram mdidar, ganviTarebul qveynebSi piriqiT, gazrdis mis

maCvenebels.

saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli ucxouri investiciebis magaliTze, meore

TavSi detalurad aris aRwerili misgan miRebuli sargebeli. soflis

meurneobaSi ganxorcielebuli ucxouri investiciebis dadebiTi Sedegebi

gavaanalizeT ramdenime WrilSi. pirveli rigSi ganvixileT saerTaSoriso

kavSirebi. gamokiTxuli biznesebidan, yvelam aRniSna, rom ucxouri

investiciebis monawileoba an Tanamonawileoba uadvilebT Tanamedrove

teqnologiebis danergvas, rac saSualebas aZlevT daakmayofilon

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saerTaSoriso standartebi. produqtis maRali xarisxi, Tavis mxriv,

dadebiT reputacias uqmnis ara marto maT, aramed zogadad, saqarTveloSi

warmoebul produqts. aseve, biznesmenebs uadvildebaT partniorebis moZebna

da produqtis eqsporti. rig SemTxvevebSi, investoris dedobili

organizacia Tavad yidulobs saqarTveloSi warmoebul produqts. soflis

meurneobaSi mimarTuli ucxouri investiciebi aumjobesebs adgilobriv

biznesgaremos da zrdis konkurencias, rac, Tavis mxriv, amcirebs fass da

aumjobesebs xarisxs. Tanamedrove teqnologiebze awyobili agrobiznesebi

ubiZgeben konkurentebs axali, ufro efeqtiani marTvisa da teqnologiuri

bazis mowyobisaken. aseve, vertikalur jaWvSi integrirebul mimwodeblebsa

da momxmareblebs aiZulebs moergon maRali standardebis moTxovnebs.

ucxouri investiciebiT Seqmnili biznesebi adamianuri kapitalis

inkubatorebis rols TamaSoben. ganxiluli biznesebidan yoveli maTgani

xarjavs mniSvnelovan finansur resursebs, TanamSromelTa kvalifikaciis

amaRlebisTvis, treningebisa da gadamzadebis kursebis gavlisTvis. zogadad,

dasaqmeba da samuSao Zalis ganviTareba pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis

erT-erTi yvelaze mniSvnelovani dadebiTi Sedegia. amasTan erTad, pirdapiri

ucxouri investiciebi zrdis saxelwifo Semosavals miwis, qonebis,

irigaciis, aqcizis, saSemosavlo, mogebisa da damatebiTi Rirebulebis

gadasaxadebiT. Tumca sagulisxmoa, rom sasoflo-sameurneo produqtis

warmoebaSi igulisxmeba pirveladi produqti da nebismieri saxis damatebiTi

damuSaveba ibegreba damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadiT.

Tavi 3. zogadi wonasworobis modeli

zogadi wonasworobis modelebi (CGE) kargad dafuZnebulia standartul

ekonomikur TeoriaSi. misi gamoyenebiT ikvleven Tanamedrove politikis

sakiTxebs sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi da farTod gamoiyeneba iseTi tipis

analizisas, rogoricaa investiciebis, sagadasaxado reformis da sxvadasxva

proeqtebis efeqtianobis Sefaseba. CGE modelis potenciali Zalzed didia

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da dRevandel msoflioSi farTod adaptirebuli meTodia misi gamoyeneba,

gansakuTrebiT, ganviTarebadi qveynebis magaliTze.

naSromSi datalurad gavaanalizeT zogadi wonasworobis modelis Teoriu-

meTodologiuri safuZvlebi (safaso meqanizmi), misi dadebiTi da uaryofiTi

mxareebi da kompleqsuri struqtura. aseve, ganvixileT modelis Seqmnisa da

ganviTarebis istoriuli etapebi. zogadi wonasworobis modelis

Tavdapirvel Semqmnelad iTvleba leon valrasi (Léon Walras), neoklasikuri

Teoriis erT-erTi fuZemdebeli da amavdroulad maTematikuri ekonomikisa

da modelirebis mamamTavari. modelis ganviTarebaSi, kerZod ki

wonasworobis arsebobisa da misi mdgradobis damtkicebaSi, wvlili

Seitanes ekonomistebma eroum da debrium (Kenneth Arrow, Gérard Debreu). zogadi

wonasworobis modelebs iyeneben iseTi organizaciebi, rogoricaa msoflio

savaWro organizacia (WTO), saerTaSoriso sakvebis politikis kvleviTi

instituti (IFPRI), msoflio banki (WB) da sxv.

investiciebis efeqtianobis analizisTvis naSromSi agebulia zogadi

wonasworobis modeli „Arrow–Debreu“-s wonaworobis magaliTis mixedviT.

Sesabamisad modelirebisTvis gamoyenebulia sami aramkacri utolobis

piroba: nulovani mogebis, sabazro wonasworobis da saSemosavlo balansis.

modeli statikuria da drois faqtors ar iTvaliswinebs, anu miRebuli

Sedegebis interpretacia xdeba saSualovadian periodze da ar

iTvaliswinebs efeqtebis droSi ganawilebas. modelSi nagulisxmebia mcire,

Ria ekonomika, romlis pirobebSic qveynas ar aqvs gavlena msoflio fasebze.

eqsportisa da importis fasebi egzogenuria.

naSromSi warmodgenil modelSi ganxilulia 15 ekonomikuri seqtori da

Sesabamisad produqtTa 15 kategoria. modelSi gaTvaliswinebuli sawarmoo

faqtorebia samuSao Zala, kapitali da Sualeduri produqtis nakrebi.

seqtorebi, romlebic erTze meti saxeobis produqts awarmoeben, aRwerilia

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transformaciis mudmivi elastikurobis mqone funqciebiT. Canacvlebis

elastikuroba TviTdasaqmebul da daqiravebul muSaxels Soris erTis

tolia soflis meurneobis seqtorisTvis, xolo yvela sxva seqtorisTvis

0.5-is. es daSveba logikuria, radgan TviTdasaqmebulTa umravlesoba soflis

meurneobis seqtorSia da isini SeiZleba daqiravebulni iqnan agrobiznesebis

mier. Tumca, soflad TviTdasaqmebul adamians gauWirdeba sxva seqtorSi

ipovos samsaxuri. kapitali da muSaxeli gaerTianebulia qob-daglasis

funqciiT, xolo saboloo produqtis warmoebisTvis Sualeduri moxmarebis

saqonelTan gaerTianebulia leontiefis funqciiT. naSromSi gamoyenebulia

transformaciis mudmivi elastikurobis funqcia, romelic warmoebul

produqts yofs adgilobriv da saeqsporto bazrebisTvis.

modelSi Sinameurneobebi sargeblianobas iReben dasvenebaSi daxarjuli

droidan, danazogebidan da produqtisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebidan

(impotirebuli da adgilobrivi produqti misTvis ganurCevelia).

produqtisa da momsaxurebis moxmareba aRwerilia qob-daglasis funqciiT,

romelic fiqsirebuli proporciiT aris gaerTianebuli danazogebTan da

bolos dasveneba da moxmareba-danazogebi gaerTianebulia 0.5 Canacvlebis

elastikurobis mqone funqciiT.

saxelmwifos Semosavlebi Sedgeba gadasaxadebis, sazRvargareTidan

miRebuli grantebisa da sesxebisgan. Tavis mxriv, igi gascems transferebs

mosaxleobaze. darCenil saxsrebs iyenebs produqtis SesaZenad da

investiciebisTvis.

modelSi saSemosavlo gadasaxadebi endogenuria da icvleba imis mixedviT,

rom saxelmwifos servisebis done sawyis maCvenebelze SenarCundes

sxvadasxva savaraudo scenarebis ganxilvisas. daSvebis Tanaxmad, amoRebuli

gadasaxadebi Seicvleba Sinameurneobebis moxmarebis cvlilebis

proporciulad. aseTi daSvebiT fokusirebas movaxdenT investiciebis

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rolze, radgan konkretul situaciaSi naklebad aqtualuria sxva wyaroebis

xarjze gaumjobesebuli keTildReobis maCvenebeli.

modelis mixedviT qveynidan gaedineba danazogebi, aseve, sazRvargareT gadis

ucxoelebis mier adgilobrivi kapitalis flobiT miRebuli Semosavali,

wminda fuladi gzavnilebi da wminda eqsporti.

Tavi 4. socialuri aRricxvis matrica

2011 wlis monacemebze dayrdnobiT avageT socialuri aRricxvis matrica

(SAM), rac saqarTvelosTvis pirvelia da zogadi wonasworobis modelis

gamoyenebiT kvlevebis ganviTarebas uyris safuZvels. sxvadasxva saxis

monacems Sorisaa finansTa saministrosa da saqstatis mier mowodebuli

informacia erovnuli angariSebze, Sinameurneobebis integrirebuli

gamokvlevisa da saxelmwifos 2011 wlis biujetis monacemebi. axlad

Seqmnili socialuri aRricxvis matrica moicavs informacias 15 seqtoris

warmoebasa da maTze moTxovnis Sesaxeb, agreTve, 15 samrewvelo produqtsa

da 20 tipis saojaxo meurneobas, regionebisa da rural-urbanul WrilSi.

aseve, erTmaneTisgan gamovyaviT TviTdasaqmebuli da daqiravebuli muSaxeli.

naSromSi detalurad ganvixileT matricis agebis meTodologia da misi

gamoyenebis mniSvneloba.

Tavi 5. saqarTvelos ekonomikis sxvadasxva seqtorSi investiciebis

modelirebis Sedegebi

pirvel rigSi soflis meurneobaSi investiciebis Sedegebi SevadareT sxva

seqtorebis Sedegebs. Cven simulaciurad avsaxeT eqvsi sxvadasxva scenari.

pirvel xuT scenarSi gamoTvlilia Sedegebi sainvesticio fondis sruli

kapitalis xuT sxvadasxva seqtorSi, maT Soris soflis meurneobis

seqtorSi investiciis SemTxvevaSi. amiT ufro naTlad davinaxeT sxva

seqtorebTan SedarebiT ramdenad ukeTes Sedegs gvaZlevs soflis

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meurneobaSi investireba. meeqvse scenari warmoadgens kombinirebuli

investiciis strategias. procentuli gadanawileba aviReT saqarTvelos

Tanainvestirebis fondis mier daanonsebuli, TiToeul am seqtorSi

savaraudo investiciebis moculobis Sesabamisad. pirveli xuTi simulacia

mdgomareobs 1 miliardi laris odenobis investiciis ganxorcielebaSi

Semdeg seqtorebSi: soflis meurneoba, damamuSavebeli mrewveloba,

energetika (eleqtroenergiis, airisa da wylis warmeba miwodeba),

sastumroebi da restornebi, transporti da kavSirgabmuloba. bolo

simulaciaSi Tanxa nawildeba am xuT seqtorze. Sedegad gavaanalizeT

umuSevrobis donis cvlileba, vaWrobis maCveneblis Secvla, nominaluri

mSp–is da realuri xelfasebis cvlileba. naSromSi warmodgenilia

miRebuli Sedegebis detaluri analizi. zogadad SeiZleba aRiniSnos, rom

Tu davakvirdebiT investiciis Sedegebs sxvadasxva indikatorze (mSp,

samuSao adgilebis Seqmna, saxelfaso ganakveTebi, savaWro balansi), maT

Soris, SesamCnevia garkveuli alternativebi. Tu investicia erT-erT

seqtorSi mSp-s maCvenebels mniSvnelovnad zrdis, gansxvavebul seqtorSi

investicias fasebis klebis TvalsazrisiT saukeTeso maCvenebeli aqvs. yvela

makroekonomikuri maCveneblis gaTvaliswinebiT, saukeTeso variantebia

damamuSavebel mrewvelobaSi transportsa da kavSirgabmulobaSi

investireba. sxva scenarebTan SedarebiT, orive SemTxvevaSi mocemulia

umuSevrobis dabali maCvenebeli, maRali saxelfaso ganakveTebi, mSp-sa da

savaWro balansis ufro maRali maCvenebelebi sxva scenarebTan SedarebiT.

soflis meureobaSi investireba gacilebiT ukeTes Sedegs gvaZlevs, vidre

energetikis da restornebis da sastumroebis sferoebSi igive moculobis

investiciebi. mSp-s maCvenebelis mixedviT, kombinirebuli investirebis

SemTxveva odnav ukeTesia, vidre soflis meurneobaSi investireba, magram

dasaqmebis TvalsazrisiT nakleb Sedegiania.

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miuxedavad imisa, rom mxolod eqvsi scenari ganvixileT, naSromSi

ekonomikis sxvadasxva seqtorSi resuresebis gadanawilebis optimaluri

variantis danaxva mainc SeiZleba. amJamindeli modelis SesaZleblobebis

gasaujobeseblad ufro detaluri kvlevaa saWiro iseTi sakiTxebis

gaTvaliswinebiT, rogoricaa samuSao Zalis arasruli mobiluroba, samuSao

Zalis migracia da sxva.

Tavi 6. soflis meurneobis seqtorSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebis

detaluri Sedegebi

naSromSi detalurad ganvixileT zogadi wonasworuli modelis Sedegebi

soflis meurneobis seqtorSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebisTvis. kerZod,

regionalur WrilSi, rurarul da urbanul doneze SevafaseT umuSevrobis

doneebis cvlileba, aseve, seqtorul WrilSi vaCveneT Sedegebi mTlian

warmoebaze, fasebze, eqsportsa da importze. miRebul Sedegebs Soris

mniSvnelovania aRiniSnos Semdegi:

umuSevrobis erT-erTi yvelaze mniSvnelovani kleba TbilisSi aRiniSneba,

sadac umuSevroba 10 procentuli punqtiT mcirdeba (30%-dan 20%-mde).

yvelaze gamoxatuli efeqti aWaraSi qalaqad umuSevrobazea, sadac 11

procentuli punqtiT aris umuSevroba Semcirebuli, Tumca, aq umuSevroba

kvlav yvelaze maRali, 27% rCeba. umuSevroba 4%-mdea Semcirebuli kaxeTis,

Sida qarTlis, qvemo qarTlis, samcxe javaxeTis, aWaris, guriis da imereTis

rurarul dasaxlebebSi.

soflis meurneobis seqtorSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebi gavlenas

axdens ara marto am seqtoris warmoebis moculobaze, aramed im

seqtorebzec, romlebic soflis meurneobis produqts TavianT warmoebaSi

iyeneben. soflis meurneobis seqtorSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebi

agroproduqtis warmoebas 31%-iT zrdis da dadebiTi garegani efeqti

yvelaze mkafiod damamuSavebel mrewvelobaze aisaxeba, romlis warmoebis

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moculobac Cveni modelis mixedviT 19%-iT izrdeba. aseve, mniSvnelovan

gavlenas vxedavT vaWrobis sferoSi.

soflis meurneobis produqtebis warmoebis zrda amcirebs mis fass, rac

dadebiTad aisaxeba mosaxleobis realur Semosavalze. Cveni modelis

mixedviT, saSualovadian periodSi, soflis meurneobaSi investiciebi 17% -

iT Seamcirebs agroproduqtebis fasebs. erTi mxriv, gaiafebuli

agroproduqtebi Semcirebisken ubiZgebs produqtebze fass im seqtorebSi,

sadac agroproduqtebs Sualeduri moxmarebisTvis iyeneben. meore mxriv,

gazrdili realuri Semosavlis pirobebSi, izrdeba moTxovna sxvadasxva

seqtoris produqtze, rac fasebis zrdas uwyobs xels. saboloo jamSi es

ori efeqti erTmaneTs abalansebs da zogadi wonasworobis Cveni modelis

mixedviT 2%-ian intervalSi meryeobs sxva seqtorTa produqtebze fasebis

cvlileba. magaliTad, sastumroebisa da restornebis fasebi mcirdeba 2%-

iT, radgan isini arian erT-erTi msxvili pirdapiri momxmareblebi soflis

meurneobis produqtebis. daaxloebiT 1%-iT mcirdeba damamuSavebeli

mrewvelobis fasebi. Tumca, 1-2%-iT izrdeba iseTi seqtorebis fasebi,

rogoricaa, ganaTleba, jandacva, safinanso saqmianoba da sxva.

soflis meurneobas gacilebiT mWidro kavSiri aqvs sxva dargebTan, vidre

danarCen dargebs erTmaneTTan, rac ganpirobebulia imiT, rom soflis

meurneobis produqti upiratesad iyideba adgilobriv bazarze, soflis

meurneobaSi gamoyenebuli Sualeduri resursebi, romelsac sxva dargebi

awarmoeben, naklebad importirebadia. aseve, sxva dargebic aqtiurad iyeneben

soflis meurneobis produqtebs Sualedur resursebad. soflis meurneobis

produqtebis importsa da eqsports Seaqvs Tavisi koreqtivebi, Tumca, es

yvelaferi, rogorc vnaxeT, ver amcirebs soflis meurneobis rolsa da

kavSirs sxva dargebTan.

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gaTvlebi naTlad gviCvenebs, rom soflis meurneobaSi ganxorcielebuli

investiciebi zrdis seqtoris mwarmoeblurobas da mis

konkurentunarianobas, rac eqsportis zrdiT gamoixateba. zogadi

wonasworobis modelis gaTvlebiT, soflis meurneobis eqsporti

saSualovadian periodSi 70%-iT gaizrdeba. miRebuli Sedegi pasuxs scems

skepticizms imis Sesaxeb, Tu ra resursi da investiciebi sWirdeba dargis

krizisidan gamoyvanas, ramdenad realuria, dRevandeli Tavisufali

globaluri konkurenciis pirobebSi, am dargis konkurentunarianobis

amaRleba. modelis mixedviT, seqtorebis erTmaneTze gadajaWvulobis

gavleniT izrdeba sxva seqtorebis konkurentunarianobac, rogorc ukve

vnaxeT, izrdeba maTi warmoebis moculoba da eqsportic. magaliTad, soflis

meurneobaSi investiciebis Cadeba damamuSavebeli warmoebis produqtebis

eqsports 21%-iT zrdis. sastumroebisa da restornebis servisis eqsporti

11%-iT izrdeba da a.S.

soflis meurneobaSi mimarTuli investiciebi am dargis

konkurentunarianobas, pirvel rigSi, adgilobriv bazarze zrdis, rac

importirebuli produqtebis CanacvlebaSi aisaxeba. modelis mixedviT,

agroproduqtebis importi 15%-iT mcirdeba. Tumca, gazrdili Semosavlebis

xarjze, izrdeba sxva seqtorTa produqtebisa da momsaxurebis importi.

magaliTad, izrdeba moTxovna soflis meurneobaSi gamoyenebuli manqana-

danadgarebze, romlebic adgilobrivad ar iwarmoeba, Sesabamisad, xdeba

maTi importi.

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kvlevis mecnieruli siaxleebi

disertaciis mecnieruli siaxle mdgomareobs SemdegSi:

• investiciebis simulaciuri asaxvisaTvis agebulia statikuri

zogadi wonasworobis modeli;

• socialuri aRricxvis matriciT asaxulia modelis ricxobrivi

monacemebi. kerZod, dasabuTebulia soflis meurneobis seqtoris

kavSiri ekonomikis sxva dargebTan, gaTvlilia Sinameurneobebis

moxmareba regionebis mixedviT soflisa da qalaqis WrilSi. asve,

asaxulia gadasaxadebi, warmoebaSi kapitalisa da muSaxelis moxmareba

da a.S;

• integrirebuli Sinameurneobebis kvlevis monacemTa analizis

safuZvelze regionul WrilSi gamokvleuli da Sefasebulia soflis

meurneobis komercializaciis maCvenebeli;

• saqarTveloSi pirvelad Seiqmna zogadi wonasworobis modeli,

romlis gamoyenebiT, Sesabamis gantolebaTa sistemebis amoxsniT

dadgenilia investiciebis gavlenis done umuSevrobaze regionebis

mixedviT, soflisa da qalaqis WrilSi), fasebze (seqtorebis mixedviT),

importsa da eqsportze (seqtorebis mixedviT), realur xelfassa da

mTlian warmoebaze (seqtorebis mixedviT);

• SedarebiTi analizis gziT gamovlenilia sxvadasxva seqtorSi

Cadebuli investiciebis upiratesobebi;

sadisertacio naSromis moculoba

sadisertacio naSromis moculobaa 189 gverdi da Sedgeba Sesavlis, eqvsi

Tavis, cameti qveTavisa da daskvniTi nawilisagan. naSromSi aseve

warmodgenilia gamoyenebuli literaturis CamonaTvali da danarTebi.

25

sadisertacio naSromis struqtura

Sesavali 1

1. saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis ganviTarebis mimoxilva 8

1.1. ZiriTadi tendeciebi da Semaferxebeli faqtorebi 8

1.2. miwis bazris ganviTarebis analizi 25

1.3. agro dazRveva da finansur resursebze wvdomis analizi 45

1.4. soflis meurneobaSi mimdinare proeqtebisa da programebis

mimoxilva

53

2. investiciebis Sedegebis Semafasebeli kvlevebis mimoxilva 78

2.1. arCevani siRaribis aRmofxvrasa da swraf ekonomikur zrdas

Soris

79

2.2. infrastruqturis ganviTareba 82

2.3. pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis gavlena Semosavlebis

uTanasworobaze

87

3. zogadi wonasworobis modeli 99

3.1. zogadi wonasworobis modeli mikroekonomikaSi 99

3.2. zogadi wonasworuli modelis arsi, daSvebebi da

relevanturoba

102

3.3. pirveli zogadi wonasworobis modeli saqarTvelosTvis 107

4. saqarTvelos socialuri aRricxvis matrica 115

4.1. ekonomikuri seqtorebisa da produqtebis disagregacia 115

4.2. Sinameurneobebi da saxelmwifo zogadi wonasworobis modelSi 120

4.3. socialuri aRricxvis matricis disagregacia 123

5. saqarTvelos ekonomikis sxvadasxva seqtorSi investiciebis

modelirebis Sedegebi

131

6. soflis meurneobis seqtorSi ganxorcielebuli investiciebis

detaluri Sedegebi

140

daskvnebi 150

danarTi 158

26

a) zogadi wonasworobis modelis kodi 158

b) warmoebis funqciidan fasebze damokidebuli danaxarjebis

funqciis miReba – kerZo SemTxveva

174

g) soflis mxardaWeris programis farglebSi gamoyofili Tanxebi,

2013

175

d) resursebisa da gamoyenebis cxrilebi, 2011 176

e) naSromSi gamoyenebuli Sinameurneobebis integrirebuli

gamokvlevis monacemTa bazis velebis aRwera

179

gamoyenebuli literatura 185