MILESECURE-2050 - ENEA — it · MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015 Significant differences in socio-economic development The National

Models and Scenarios Towards 2050 Perspective-The National Modelling Level

MILESECURE-2050Multidimensional Impact of the

Low-carbon European Strategy on Energy Security, and Socio-Economic Dimension up to 2050 perspective

WP4 tasks, by Zygmunt Parczewski & Adam Umer

IEn & EnergSys, Poland

EUROPEAN SOCIETIES FACING ENERGY TRANSITIONThe challenge of the human factor and energy security, up to 2050

Rome, February 17-18, 2015

This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 320169

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MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015

Table of contents

Introduction (key issues; differences vs. similarities)

Methodological approach – general scheme

SMET ’fuzzy’ model – main features

General scheme

LCE- technologies

Energy security & BM

CGE-FEU and MESO-Impact expected results


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Societal energy transition at National level -

Key issues:

Significant differences in socio-economic development and welfare – need different treatment and distinct modelling (DE vs. PL)

Significant differences in energy mix and balances (clean – dirty; imported – own; more political vs. market oriented, …)

Societal aspects in NMS’12 are very new (innovative vs.)

Local democracy (communes) - still not enough active(very short history and unfavourable political system, DK vs. PL)

Introduction


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Significant differences in socio-economic developmentThe National Modelling Level

The results of EU states clusters - complete set of 67 diagnostic variables; data for 2012

The results of EU states clusters – sub-set of 43 socio-cultural variables; data for 2012

Introduction-Socio-economic

development

„An analysis and evaluation of the EU statesdevelopment coherence – some social and economicaspects” –

(CLAN report, Nov. 2014)

General conclusions (based on 2000 – 2012 data sets):a) Significant economic changes has occurred (NMS’10 vs. EU’15)b) Socio – cultural changes proved to be much more stable (resistant to changes)

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Significant differences in socio-economic developmentThe National Modelling Level

Source: Self-analysis on the basis of Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2013

Introduction- Socio-economic development

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CO2 emission – how to bridge the gap? (social behaviours, …)

WP1: Deliverable 1.4; Data source: http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/14/data.htm

Introduction- Socio-economic development – CO2 emissions (EU’28)

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/14/data.htm

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Macro- models applied –national level

Methodological approach – general scheme

& SMET highlights


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Socio-economic macro-modelling Methodological approach – general scheme

General idea of CGE – FEU modelling process(national level analysis) by EnergSys and IEn

WP3 human factors transformation

SMET(fuzzy model)

IMACLIM(National economy)

CGE-FEU(base year 2010)

EnS-Macro(growth model)

FEU-module(Final Energy Use technologies in

residential and transport sectors)

Key assumptions:Demography,Accumulation rate,Productivity, other

Labour force;Capital stock

Techno-limits paths, costs and paceof their implementation:• RES energy supply techno.• FEU (residential + transport)

International fuel and ETS „carbon” prices paths

Meso-Impact modules

(industry, households)

•Country GDP•GVA structure•Energy prices•Employment•CO2 emissions•Households income•Production by sectors’•Wages•…

Market penetration LCE technologies –data gathering and „S-curves” estimation

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Socio-economic modelling SMET – ‚fuzzy’ model general idea

Option 1

Option 2

Option ’3’

P3

Societal Factors by E, S, P domains

(WP2 & WP3)

Societal processes (WP3 out ~ WP4 inp

P1

E3

S7

En

S5

E6

Pk

SMET(Socio Metric

Energy Transition

„fuzzy” Model)

IMACLIM-R(EU’28)

&

CGE model(EU states)DE, IT PL

SMET outputs: LCE-technologies

(S-curve saturation level –RES vs. SOS)

Societal parameters (S-curve pace of implementation –country specific)

Institutional inertia

Other,

WP4 – Modelling approach, analyses, verification and validation issues

Iterative process (if necessary)

Societal Energy Transition Consolidating societal input data into quantitative parameters

S1

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Socio-economic modelling SMET – ‚fuzzy’ model highlights (LCE-technologies)

A1- Production and delivery of energy 1. Wind farms onshore2. Wind farms offshore3. PV-Big solar farms4. Other LCE technologies

e.g. Adv_CCGT,…

A2– Individual energy use by households5. Thermo-modern. buildings6. New H-efficient buildings7. Passive buildings8. PV (small)9. Solar panels 10. Small wind turbines11. H-efficient electrical appliances12. Shifts: car – public transport

(urban & trains)13. Shift: car – bikes & walk 14. Hybrid & EV cars

A3– Other energy customers – public & business

15. Thermo-modern. public & commercial buildings

16. Shift: road freight transport – train17. Liquid biofuels18. Hybrids & EV vans and buses

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Socio-economic modelling

SMET – ‚fuzzy’ model highlights - energy security

Thermal power large units

Thermal power –S & M units

Nuclear energy

Other RES, e.g. Bio-

Intermittent sources (wind +

pv)Renewables

Assumed max. share of installed RES-

intermittent capa.Secure power units structure(by fuels and capacity units)

Power security balancing (daily, seasonal) – country specific:1. „Security margin” ~ share of intermittent RES in total Net Gen. Capacity2. Structure of Net Generating Capacity

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Socio-economic macro-modelling

CGE-FEU – OUTPUTS - validation

EU states

EU’27BM – scenarios(EU documents)

Milesecure scenarios(Imaclim & CGE-FEU)

Definition of indicatorsCategories:

- Demography- Economy- Energy- Emissions- Prices

…

Categories:- Demography- Economy- Energy- Emissions- Prices

…Milesecure outputs & BM Indicators comparison Ok?

STOPYes

No

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Key R& D expected results of the EU states: DE, IT, PLin foresighted period of 2010 – 2030

CGE-FEU & SMET:

First time societal energy transition impact will be modelled taking into account advanced results of „human energy concept” - (WP2 & WP3)

GDP growth rates and the national economies structural changes influenced by LCE scenarios

Societal energy transition impact on supply and demand side techno-impl.

CGE-FEU and MESO-Impact main resultsThe National LCE- scenarios outputs

MESO-Impact modules (linked to CGE-FEU outputs):

Changes of energy costs in energy-intensive branches ( threaten by CL-phenomenon)

Changes of households energy costs vs. fuel poverty

The EU state representatives position on energy transition cost curve to be build

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Thank you for attention

Zygmunt Parczewski & Adam UmerIEn & EnergSys;

(Institute of Power Engineering; Systems Research Ltd.)

Documents

MILESECURE-2050 - ENEA — it · MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015 Significant differences in socio-economic development The National