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Milford Town Centre Intensification Social Impact Assessment
Final Report
Milford Centre Limited c/o SKM 21 November 2007
This report has been prepared on behalf of:
Milford Centre Limited c/o SKM
This report has been prepared by:
SGS Economics and Planning Pty. Ltd.
ACN 007 437 729
Suite 12/50 Reservoir Street,
Surry Hills NSW 2010
phone: 61 2 8307 0121
fax: 61 2 8307 0126
email: [email protected]
web: www.sgs-pl.com.au
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Executive Summary ................................................................... 1
Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 Milford Town Centre ........................................................................................................... 1 The Proposed Development ................................................................................................. 1 Potential Impacts, Risk Assessment and Mitigation Strategies................................................... 2
1 Introduction ....................................................................... 5
1.1 Background and Scope of the Study............................................................................. 5 1.2 Method and Limitations .............................................................................................. 6 1.3 Structure of the Report .............................................................................................. 9
2 Milford Town Centre ...........................................................10
2.1 The Existing Centre ................................................................................................. 10 2.2 The Proposed Development ...................................................................................... 16 2.3 Future Population, Housing and Employment............................................................... 17 2.4 The Policy Context................................................................................................... 19
3 Benefits and Costs of Residential Intensification in Centres ...25
3.1 Background to Centres Policies.................................................................................. 25 3.2 Regional Benefits and Costs ...................................................................................... 25 3.3 Local Benefits and Costs........................................................................................... 27 3.4 Summary of Benefits and Costs................................................................................. 29
4 Baseline of Social and Economic Conditions ..........................31
4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 31 4.2 Demographic Characteristics..................................................................................... 32 4.3 Socio-Economic Characteristics ................................................................................. 39 4.4 Housing Characteristics ............................................................................................ 43 4.5 Employment and Economy........................................................................................ 49 4.6 Water and Sewerage Infrastructure ........................................................................... 52 4.7 Transport and Access............................................................................................... 52 4.8 Community Services, Programs and Facilities .............................................................. 54 4.9 Summary of Baseline Conditions................................................................................ 56
5 Potential Impacts ...............................................................58
5.1 The Demand and Supply of Housing........................................................................... 58 5.2 Economic Vitality and Centre Vibrancy........................................................................ 61 5.3 Impacts on Infrastructure......................................................................................... 63 5.4 Potential Impacts on the Amenity of the Surrounding Environment ................................. 64 5.5 Impacts on Community Wellbeing.............................................................................. 66 5.6 Summary of Impacts ............................................................................................... 68
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6 Potential Mitigation Strategies ............................................70
7 Conclusion.........................................................................75
8 References ........................................................................77
Appendix 1 - Risk Impact Assessment ........................................79
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Executive Summary
Introduction
In June 2007, SGS Economics and Planning (SGS) was commissioned by Milford Centre Limited via
SKM to undertake a Social Impact Assessment (SIA) in relation to the proposal to seek a change to
the North Shore District Plan to enhance the opportunity for the intensification of residential
development on the site owned by Milford Centre Limited at 143 Kitchener Road, Milford. A full
description of the proposal under review is provided in Section 2.
The purpose of the SIA was to independently assess the likely positive and negative social
consequences associated with intensification of the Milford Centre area such that an objective
assessment of the extent of the risks associated with potential impacts was known. Where
necessary, mitigation strategies to remove or lessen negative impacts on affected individuals and
populations were identified.
Milford Town Centre
The Milford Town Centre is situated within the North Shore City area some 12km from the Auckland
CBD and is located within 1km of the coast. Milford has developed to become an established
suburban shopping and service centre. The town centre includes a retail/commercial precinct zoned
Business 2 in the North Shore City Council District Plan, 2002. The area zoned Business 2
surrounding the site is generally characterised by small lots and dispersed property ownership
patterns.
The subject site referred to within this report as the Milford Shopping Centre (MSC) site, has a total
area of 2.9062 hectares. The site is currently utilised by the Milford Shopping Centre (MSC) and is
zoned Business 2. Retail and commercial tenancies also surround the MSC site and are zoned
Business 2. The tenancies are generally low density, (1 or 2 storeys) with most occupying only a
ground floor, or ground floor and first level. Commercial tenancies in the area surrounding the MSC
are occupied by a number of small, locally orientated professional businesses such as solicitors and
accountants. Overall, the quality and standard of the town centre area is ‘good to average’ but is
not seen to reflect the affluent area in which it is located (Land use survey conducted June 2007).
The Proposed Development
Milford Centre Limited is applying to the North Shore City Council for approval of a private plan
change to facilitate significant intensification of the site.
This SIA relates to Stage 3 of the proposed intensification of the MSC site by Milford Centre Limited.
Stage 3 involves a private plan change application to the NSCC to amend the NSCC district plan
provisions such that significant residential intensification can occur on the MSC site.
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Milford Centre Limited’s preferred proposal is to build higher density residential buildings at the MSC
site. It is anticipated that the residential development will house 250 apartments, averaging 2
bedrooms, (with 1.5 car spaces per apartment). The option involves building heights considerably
higher than the existing zone height of 9m. It is anticipated that the proposed intensification could
be completed in 2010 and is likely to result in an approximate population increase of 450 people at
the site1.
Potential Impacts, Risk Assessment and Mitigation Strategies
A robust, five stage methodology was used for this Social Impact Assessment by SGS. This included
a mix of data analysis, consultation, literature reviews and assessment based on previous
experience.
The proposed development is consistent with wider policy objectives relating to intensification. A
number of regional and local planning and policy documents support land use intensification at the
Milford Town Centre including the Auckland Regional Growth Concept Plan, 1999, North Shore City
Council City Blue Print, 2001 and the North Shore District Plan, 2002.
As outlined in Section 5 of this report, many positive impacts were identified in relation to the
proposed development. Likely positive impacts of the proposed development include:
• Providing a good opportunity for increased residential intensification at Milford
Town Centre. A large lot in single ownership, the proposed redevelopment of the Milford
Shopping Centre site would contribute substantially to intensification in the area, and will
occur in a centrally accessible area, close to public transport, retail and commercial
amenities.
• Presenting a key opportunity to widen the diversity of housing types available to
local and other residents. Residential intensification in centres diversifies housing
products, catering for a wide demographic spectrum. The proposed development at the
Milford Town Centre will add to the supply of housing and to greater diversity in the type of
dwellings available in the Milford area.
• Providing a stimulus for employment and business opportunities and revitalise the
town centre. Residential intensification at centres strengthens local economies and
improves centre viability and vitality by providing a larger and more diverse customer base,
particularly for local retail businesses and a focal point for business and economic activity.
The movement of new people into the area could further contribute to the vibrancy of the
centre.
• Contributing to the sustainability of future public transport networks. The proposed
development provides an opportunity for contribution to the sustainability of future transport
networks by contributing to increased patronage, optimising the use of services and
infrastructure and reducing car dependency.
• Contributing to the preservation of the character and amenity of the surrounding
environment. The proposed development will contribute to concentrated residential
1 This is based on the assumption of 1.8 persons per household. (Results from the 2006 Australian Census shows that dwelling occupancy rates across Australia for flats/units/apartments is 1.8 persons per dwelling. Australian Bureau of Statistics data was used as New Zealand statistics were not available for this study).
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development in the town centre area, thus reducing the need to increase residential density
in nearby suburban localities and preserving the existing character and amenity of the
surrounding environment.
• Providing a stimulus for overall benefits to community wellbeing. The development
is likely to create a stimulus of overall benefits to the community to the extent that an
increase in population will create an increase in employment and business opportunities, and
help to stimulate and diversity the local economy. A strong and vibrant centre also provides
a focus to an area providing a sense of identity to residents
• Providing positive benefits associated with walking and cycling. The Milford centre is
currently well serviced by public transport making the site proposed for redevelopment easily
accessible. Urban intensification can account for substantial health benefits in well serviced
centres by providing more opportunities for increased walking (and cycling), less motor
vehicle use and a healthier population overall.
• Providing positive benefits for crime and safety. More residents living in the town
centre may equate with more people on the surrounding streets, thus improving passive
surveillance.
However, if not appropriately mitigated, the proposed development has potential to result in a
number of risks. The key risks identified, the overall risk rating, suggested mitigation strategies and
responsibility for implementation of these mitigation strategies are summarised in Table 1 over
page2. It is important to note that all these risks have been assessed as low to medium. Refer
Appendix 1 for further detail.
Mitigation strategies for the identified risks have been suggested to ensure that, if approved, the
positive benefits associated with the development are maximised. The mitigation strategies
suggested are the responsibility of Milford Centre Limited, North Shore City Council, Auckland
Regional Council or Auckland Regional Transport Authority. The measures suggested are not
complex or expensive. In addition to the mitigation strategies suggested, the following points are
considered to contribute to the reduced likelihood of the identified risks occurring:
• Information provided by Milford Centre Limited indicates that their consultants have carefully
assessed the potential effects of the proposal and that the site context has been taken into
account in developing the plan change;
• Community participation through public submissions will occur as part of the plan change
process;
• Potential effects of the proposed development (including impacts relating to design, noise,
traffic and visual impacts and infrastructure capacity) will be assessed by North Shore City
Council through the plan change process.
Following SGS’s comprehensive assessment of potential impacts, this analysis shows that
there are a number of key positive impacts associated with the development and that
there a number of potential negative impacts. It is SGS’s professional judgement that the
negative impacts assessed in this report could be mitigated against. It is therefore
considered that the potential benefits associated with the proposed development
outweigh possible negative impacts.
2 It is noted that the assessment of effects relating to visual impacts, traffic impacts and overshadowing are to be investigated in separate studies. As discussed in the following chapter, identified risks relating to any associated impacts will need to be mitigated in accordance with the recommendations of these studies.
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Table 1. Summary of Risks and Suggested Mit igat ion Strategies
Risk Risk Rating Mitigation Strategies Responsibility
Poor integration with
neighbouring development,
possible visual impacts,
overshadowing and the risk of
reverse sensitivity occurring
Low • Ensuring appropriate design standards for
new development and consideration of
these issues by NSCC during the
assessment process.
• Education material could be provided to
new residents to reduce the likelihood of
reverse sensitivity occurring.
NSCC, Milford
Centre Limited
New residents of the
development do not patronise
the local centre
Low • Support could be provided for activities to
promote local businesses.
• Support for the development of a Milford
Business Association could also be
provided.
NSCC
Potential for residential
development to downgrade the
retail / commercial role of
Milford town centre
Low • Monitoring of land consumption by retail /
commercial and residential development.
NSCC
The potential that take-up of
public transport does not occur
Medium • Monitoring of public transport patronage
and services.
• Education and promotion of the use of
public transport for new residents.
NSCC, Auckland
Regional
Transport
Authority
Amenity at the site is
compromised as a result of
short-term (during
construction) or longer-term
traffic and noise impacts
Medium • Traffic impacts are to be investigated in a
separate study. Recommended mitigation
measures to be implemented.
Milford Centre
Limited
Community stability and
cohesion may be affected with
a new population moving into
the area
Low • Community consultation and education will
assist with reducing the likelihood of this
risk occurring.
• “Welcome packs” could be distributed to
new residents to assist new residents at the
site ‘settle in’.
Milford Centre
Limited
Short-term impacts on
pedestrian access and safety
during the period of
construction
Medium • A Construction Management Plan will be
developed. Recommended mitigation
measures to be implemented.
NSCC, Milford
Centre Limited
Improved passive surveillance
does not occur due to poor
design and/or inadequate
lighting in public areas
surrounding the development
Medium • Milford Centre Ltd to ensure that the design
of the proposed development is well
integrated into the local area and that
adequate lighting is provided.
Milford Centre
Limited
Marginal impact on the
availability and capacity of
community services, programs
and facilities
Medium • Audit and detailed study of the future
capacity of community services, programs
and facilities by NSCC.
NSCC
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1 Introduction
1.1 Background and Scope of the Study
In June 2007, SGS Economics and Planning (SGS) was commissioned by Milford Centre Limited via
SKM to undertake a Social Impact Assessment (SIA) in relation to the proposal to seek a change to
the North Shore District Plan to enhance the opportunity for the intensification of residential
development on the site owned by Milford Centre Limited at 143 Kitchener Road, Milford. A full
description of the proposal under review is provided in Section 2.
The purpose of the SIA was to independently assess the likely positive and negative social
consequences associated with intensification of the Milford Centre area such that an objective
assessment of the extent of the risks associated with potential impacts was known. Where
necessary, mitigation strategies to remove or lessen negative impacts on affected individuals and
populations were suggested.
Social Impact Assessment Defined
Social Impact Assessment (SIA) is a method of analysing in advance the likely impacts a proposed
development or policy change may have on an individual or community (the social aspects of the
environment). SIA involves characterising the existing state of such aspects of the environment,
forecasting how they may change if a given action or alternative is implemented and developing
means of mitigating changes that are likely to be adverse from the point of view of the affected
individual or population.
The Interorganisational Committee on Guidelines and Principles for SIA expands the definition to
include:
“all social and cultural consequences to human populations of any public or private actions
that alter the ways in which people live, work, play, relate to one another, organise to meet
their needs, and generally cope as members of society.”
(Source: cited in Burdge, 2002)
It is noted that this SIA includes a qualitative economic assessment in so far as it relates to impacts
on affected individuals and the community.
Legislative Framework
The NZ policy framework allows for social impact assessment through the Resource Management Act
(RMA) 1991, Schedule 4, as follows.
The process for requiring an assessment of environmental effects of a proposed development is
outlined in Clause 88 of the RMA 1991.
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Schedule 4 (Part 2 Clause 1) defines Environment as:
(a) Ecosystems and their constituent parts, including people and communities; and
(b) All natural and physical resources; and
(c) Amenity values; and
(d) The social, economic, aesthetic, and cultural conditions which affect the matters stated in
paragraphs (a) to (c) of this definition or which are affected by those matters.
Under Schedule 4, matters that should be included in an assessment of environmental
effects
Subject to the provisions of any policy statement or plan, an assessment of effects on the
environment for the purposes of Section 88 should include-
…
(d) an assessment of the actual or potential effect on the environment of the proposed activity;
…
(g) a description of the mitigation measures (safeguards and contingency plans where relevant) to
be undertaken to help prevent or reduce the actual or potential effect:
Matters that should be considered when preparing an assessment of effects on the
environment
Clause 2 states that:
Subject to the provisions of any policy statement or plan, any person preparing an assessment of the
effects on the environment should consider the following matters [as relevant to Social Impact
Assessment]:
(a) Any effect on those in the neighbourhood and, where relevant, the wider community including
any socio-economic and cultural effects;
…
1.2 Method and Limitations
Tasks undertaken to complete the SIA for the proposed intensification of Milford Centre are
summarised below in Figure 1.
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Figure 1. Study Method
Task 1: Project Inception Phase 1 Inception, Policy Context
and BaselineTask 2: Community Profile: Existing Town Centre and Demographic Context
Phase 4Impact Analysis and
Proposed Mitigation Measures
Phase 3Consultation
Task 4: Benefits of Residential Intensification in Centres
Task 5: Expert Consultation
Task 7: Impact Analysis
Phase 2 Literature Review
Task 6: Stakeholder Consultation
Task 3: Community Profile: Future Town Centre and Demographic Context
Discussion Paper
Phase 5 Reporting
Task 9: Draft Findings
Consultation Notes
Task 8: Mitigation Measures
Task 10: Final Report
Document Review
In order to establish a background context for the SIA, relevant existing documents were reviewed.
This included documents that were directly related to the proposed intensification, to the Milford area
generally, and the wider Auckland Region (including the Auckland Regional Growth Strategy, 1999
(ARGS), documents prepared for the ARGS Review, 2006-07). In addition, a literature review on the
costs and benefits of intensification was undertaken. A full list of documents reviewed is included in
Section 8.
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Site Visit and Land Use Survey
A site visit and land use survey was conducted on 25th June 2007. This visit assessed land use at
the Milford Town Centre and surrounding area, the general condition of the retail and commercial
tenancies, and access routes to the centre.
Consultation
Consultation was undertaken with key external stakeholders and involved a series of face-to-face
and telephone interviews. Organisations consulted included:
• Auckland Regional Council;
• Auckland Regional Transport Authority;
• North Shore City Council;
• Enterprise North Shore;
• Birkenhead / Northcote Community Board Chair / Community Coordinator3;
• Residential, Commercial and Retail Real Estate Agents active within the Milford area;
• Various community facility and service providers in the North Shore area.
Quantitative Data
A limited number of data sources were utilised in the impact assessment as both baseline and trend
indicators. Data sources included:
• Statistics NZ Census Data (1991-2006) for the Milford Town Centre Area (aggregated
meshblocks), the North Shore City Council (NSCC) area and the Auckland Region;
• Population, dwelling and retail floor space projections data from North Shore City Council;
• Median residential rent and sales data sourced from the Real Estate Institute of New
Zealand.
• Further data sources obtained through consultation with agencies and key stakeholders.
Impact Assessment, Risk Identification and Mitigation Strategies
Taking into account the baseline analysis, outcomes from consultation and observations from the site
visits, an independent assessment of the proposal was made and a list of potential impacts
determined. The likelihood of the risks associated with the impacts was assessed. Where there
were likely negative impacts, potential mitigation strategies were suggested.
Overall Conclusion Regarding Likely Impact
Given all preceding information, overall conclusions regarding the likely positive and negative impact
of the intensification of the Milford centre were made.
3 While the interview conducted with the Birkenhead Northcote Community Board Chair and Community Coordinator for this study focused on the Birkenhead / Highbury area, a number of comments were also recorded about the Milford area, as informed by the interviewee’s knowledge of the wider North Shore area and work with North Shore City Council.
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1.3 Structure of the Report
The remainder of the body of the report is presented in six sections as follows:
Section 2 Contextual information including a description of the existing centre and the proposed
development. An overview of regional and local planning policy context relevant to
town centre intensification at Milford
Section 3 Qualitative discussion describing the social and economic benefits and costs of
intensification in existing centres with reference to regional and local impacts.
Section 4 A socio-demographic and socio-economic overview of the immediate locality
surrounding the site proposed for the residential intensification. This analysis
compares and contrasts the immediate locality surrounding the site proposed for the
residential intensification with the North Shore City Territorial Local Area (TLA) and
Auckland Region.
Section 5 Identifies and summarises the range of social impacts that could potentially be
experienced by community members in the area immediately surrounding the site
and community members in a wider geographic area that we anticipate might be
impacted upon.
Section 6 Restates the risks identified in the previous section and notes potential mitigation
strategies to lessen or completely erode the risk identified.
Section 7 The conclusion to this report summarises the findings of this Social Impact
Assessment.
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2 Milford Town Centre
2.1 The Existing Centre
Milford Town Centre
The Milford Town Centre is situated within the North Shore City area some 12km from the Auckland
CBD (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Locat ion of Mi l ford Centre
MILFORDCENTRE
Source: www.wises.co.nz
The town centre includes a retail/commercial precinct zoned Business 2 in the North Shore City
Council District Plan, 2002 (Figure 3). The retail and commercial precinct includes the main street
retail and commercial area located on Kitchener, Milford, Dodson and Shakespeare Roads in addition
to the Milford Shopping Centre (MSC). This area is approximately 7 hectares. The location of the
proposed site for redevelopment, MSC is shown in the figure below.
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Figure 3. Mil ford Centre Zoning Map
Site Boundary
Business 2 Zone, North Shore City Council District Plan, 2002
Milford Town Centre is located within 1km of the coast. The suburb of Milford first developed as a
popular location for holiday houses during the late 19th and early 20th Century. It was not until the
construction of the Harbour Bridge in 1959 that Milford began evolving into a suburban centre.
Since this time, Milford has developed to become an established suburban shopping and service
centre (pers. comm. Enterprise North Shore, June 2007). MSC has been trading since the mid
1990s.
The Site Proposed for Redevelopment – Milford Shopping Centre
The subject site, Lot 1 DP180874 has a total area of 2.9062 hectares and is utilised by Milford
Shopping Centre (MSC) (Figure 4). The site is located within a block defined by Milford Road to the
east, Ihumata Road to the north, Omana Road to the west and the shops fronting Kitchener Road to
the south.
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Figure 4. The Si te – Mi l ford Shopping Centre
View of the Site, from Kitchener/Milford Rd Carpark Pedestrian crossing, Kitchener Rd
Source: SGS Economics and Planning, June 2007
The MSC site currently features a total gross floor area of 18,164m2, (12,237 m2 of net lettable
retail floor space) and approximately 800 car parks.
Well known retailers operating from the MSC include The Warehouse, Woolworths and Whitcoulls.
Other retail tenancies within the MSC are generally of average quality and are independent
operations. MSC currently has a high number of vacancies (refer to Figure 6) as tenancies have not
been renewed in preparation for current development plans.
The Milford Town Centre is relatively flat, making MSC easy to access for pedestrians. Pedestrian
access to the shopping centre site is limited to Kitchener and Milford Roads and vehicle access is
provided on three frontages: Milford Road, Ihumata Road and Omana Road. MSC is not considered
to be well integrated with the street, other than at the Kitchener Road pedestrian entrance.
Land to the west of Wairau Creek rises and residential development in this area looks over the MSC.
District and coastal views are not available from the site, but could be capitalised upon if
development was to exceed two storeys. Noise levels at the site are generally minor and are
associated with traffic movements as well as retail activity.
The area zoned Business 2 surrounding the MSC is generally characterised by small lots and has
dispersed property ownership. The proposed MSC site for redevelopment is a large lot in single
ownership.
Land Use at Milford Town Centre
Land use in the area surrounding the MSC site includes:
• Residential and retail / commercial properties are located directly opposite the Milford Road
frontage;
• Residential properties located directly opposite the Ihumata Road frontage and along Milford
Road to the north;
• Reserve / planted areas front the Wairau Creek to the west;
• Retail and commercial properties located on Kitchener Road to the south.
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Figure 5. Mil ford Town Centre
Retail / commercial, Milford Rd Residential, Milford Road, view North
Kitchener Rd, view north-east Kitchener Rd, Shakespeare Rd intersection, view north-east
Source: SGS Economics and Planning, June 2007
Current land use at the centre is shown in Figure 6 (Land use survey conducted June 2007). Retail
and commercial tenancies in the Business 2 zone surrounding the MSC site are generally low density,
(1 or 2 storeys) with most tenancies occupying only a ground floor, or ground floor and first level
including a number of local restaurants, supermarkets, banks, chemists and basic services.
Commercial tenancies in the area surrounding the site are occupied by a number of small, local
businesses, most of which are classified as ‘scientific, technical and other services’ in Figure 6 below
– accountants and solicitors for example. In the past, Milford had a number of high quality tenants.
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Figure 6. Retai l and Commercial Act iv i ty in MSC and Remainder of Business 2 Zone, Mi l ford Town Centre, June 2007
Retail Goods and Services
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Shopping Centre 7 7 5 6 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Remainder 21 15 12 11 9 8 7 4 2 2 1
Cafes, Rest. & Take/a
Clothing, Foot/w & Personal
Per. & Other
Health Care
Other Store-Based
Specialised Food
Recr. Goods Real Estate
Furn/Fl. Coverings/Housew /Te
Supermar. & Groc. Stores
AutomobileElectrical &
Elec. Goods
Other Services and Activities
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Shopping Centre 0 3 0 1 26 0
Remainder 13 5 6 2 2 1
Prof, Scien & Tech Services
Fin & Insurance Services
Med & Other Health Care Services
Other Services Vacant Printing & Print Support Services
Source: Land Use Survey, June 2007, SGS Economics and Planning
Current land uses referred to above are represented spatially in Figure 7 (Land use survey conducted
June 2007). The centre currently has a high number of vacancies. These vacancies are the result of
an intentional strategy by the client not to renew leases (in preparation for an earlier stage of
development). There are few vacancies in the surrounding town centre area. It is noted however,
that the quality of tenancies in the surrounding town centre area is reported to have declined
significantly in recent years (pers. comm.. Barfoot and Thompson, June 2007).
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Figure 7. Retai l & Commercial Act iv i ty , Business 2 Zone, Mi l ford Town Centre
Source: Land Use Survey, June 2007, SGS Economics and Planning
Overall, the quality and standard of the town centre area is ‘good to average’ but is not seen to
reflect the affluent area in which it is located (Land use survey conducted June 2007). Few of the
main street retail activities have a strong street presence. The quality marginally declines towards
the Kitchener Road / Shakespeare Road intersection. A land use survey of the Town Centre
conducted in June 2006 showed that over half (52%) of the retail and commercial establishments in
Milford Town Centre are considered to be of average condition (Figure 8).
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Figure 8. Condit ion of Premises, Mi l ford Town Centre
10%
52%
38%Poor
Average
Good
Source: Land Use Survey, June 2007, SGS Economics and Planning
The Milford Town Centre has not had a mainstreet program, and this is reflected in the limited
landscaping at the centre (including the concentration of street trees at the pedestrian crossing on
Kitchener Road which, while landscaped does not reflect the affluence of the area in which the town
centre is located). Consultation conducted for this study indicated that a main street program is
unlikely to be funded by NSCC in the near future (pers. comm. Enterprise North Shore, June 2007).
The Surrounding Area and Region
The Business 2 zone at Milford Town Centre is surrounded by low density suburban residential
development of good amenity. Housing is generally detached in the immediate vicinity of the site
and there are a limited number of medium density residential developments.
In relation to the regional context, consultation conducted for this study indicated that with regard to
retail, generally the ‘top-end dollar’ is not being catered for in Milford, or on the North Shore
generally. Consultation indicated that expenditure from the retail outlets is escaping to areas that
have the ‘big brand names’ and ‘higher level’ retailers. Newmarket was provided as an example
(pers. comm.. MATCH Realty, June 2005).
2.2 The Proposed Development
Milford Centre Limited is applying to the North Shore City Council for approval of a private plan
change to facilitate significant intensification of the Milford Shopping Centre (MSC) site.
This SIA relates to Stage 3 of the proposed intensification of the MSC site by Milford Centre Limited.
The three stages of the wider proposal are described over page.
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Stage 1: This stage primarily involves an internal refit of the existing shopping centre.
Stage 2: Stage 2 of the proposed development involved a resource consent application by Milford
Centre Ltd to expand the existing MSC to provide for additional retail and commercial space, 15 new
residential units, underground car parking / access / plant rooms as well as the necessary excavation
and site works and site servicing to develop these activities.
Stage 3: Stage 3, to which this study relates, involves a private plan change application to the
NSCC to amend the NSCC district plan provisions such that significant residential intensification can
occur on the MSC site.
Stage 3 Plans for the Milford Shopping Centre4
Milford Centre Limited’s preferred proposal is to build higher density residential buildings at the MSC
site. It is anticipated that the residential development will house 250 apartments, averaging 2
bedrooms, (with 1.5 car spaces per apartment). The option involves building heights considerably
higher than the existing zone height of 9m. It is anticipated that the proposed intensification could
be completed in 2010 and is likely to result in an approximate population increase of 450 people at
the site5.
Market assessments completed for MSC by Bayley's Real Estate (pers. Comm.. Bayley’s Real Estate,
June 2007) indicate that a potential target market for the development has been identified as older
people (of retirement and pre-retirement age) looking to downsize. Homeowners, rather than
investors have been identified as the likely purchasers of the properties due to the likely price point
at which the homes would enter the market. Future population is expected to come from the North
Shore area itself, possibly the immediate vicinity of the site although attraction from a wider area is
also likely (pers. Comm.. Bayley’s Real Estate, June 2007).
2.3 Future Population, Housing and Employment
If current policy objectives are realised, the centre is projected to experience population, housing
and employment growth into the future.
Population and Housing
North Shore City Council’s Population Projections specific to the Milford Town Centre area6 (Figure 9)
indicate that the population living within the centre and the residential area immediately surrounding
the Business 2 zone is projected to increase by 530 people between 2006 and 2021 (NSCC Land-use
Capacity and Allocation Model, 2005). These forecasts for the Milford Town area are consistent with
4 The analysis of impacts, risks and mitigation measures contained within this SIA is based on the Stage 3 plans shown in this section of the report. 5 This is based on the assumption of 1.8 persons per household. (Results from the 2006 Australian Census shows that dwelling occupancy rates across Australia for flats/units/apartments is 1.8 persons per dwelling. Australian Bureau of Statistics data was used as New Zealand statistics were not available for this study). 6 Including the Milford Business 2 Zone and the immediate residential area surrounding the Business 2 zone as shown in Figure 9.
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the aim of intensification, but, as discussed in the following section, the pathway to ensuring
intensification occurs is unclear. Currently the zoning environment at the Town Centre is
constrained, land ownership is fragmented, vacant land is limited and density allowances are such
that these likely increases in population, housing and employment may be difficult to achieve
without a significant development such as the MSC.
Table 2. Populat ion Growth Mi l ford Town Centre Area
NSCC Projections 2006 2011 2021 Change Milford Town Centre Area 3,549 3,570 4,079 530
Source: North Shore City Council Land-use Capacity and Allocation Model 2005.
Figure 9. Mil ford Town Centre Area
Milford town centre area
Source: North Shore City Council Land-use Capacity and Allocation Model 2005
Results from NSCC’s Land-use Capacity and Allocation Model shows that an additional 346 dwellings
are projected for the Milford Town Centre between 2006 and 2021 to cater for this additional
population (Table 3).
Table 3. Dwel l ing Growth Mi l ford Town Centre Area NSCC Projections 2006 2011 2021 Change Milford Town Centre Area 1,604 1,646 1,950 346
Source: North Shore City Council Land-use Capacity and Allocation Model 2005.
As noted in Section 2.2 of this report, the proposed development of the MSC site by Milford Centre
Limited is likely to result in an additional 250 dwellings and an approximate population increase of
approximately 450 people at the site7. It is anticipated that the proposed intensification could be
completed in 2010. If approved, the MSC site would account for some 72% of the expected
population growth in the town centre area over the next three years.
7 This is based on the assumption of 1.8 persons per household. (Results from the 2006 Australian Census shows that dwelling occupancy rates across Australia for flats/units/apartments is 1.8 persons per dwelling. Australian Bureau of Statistics data was used as New Zealand statistics were not available for this study).
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Employment
North Shore City Council’s Projections specific to the Milford Town Centre Area8 indicate that
employment is estimated to increase in Milford Centre by 128 jobs between 2006 and 2021. This is
anticipated to be made up by employment in retail (+123 jobs) and non-retail jobs (+5 jobs) (NSCC
Land-Use Capacity and Allocation Model 2005).
Table 4. Employment Growth Mi l ford
2006 2011 2021 Change
Milford Centre Retail Employment 600 687 723 123
Milford Centre Non-Retail Employment 1147 1152 1152 5
Source: North Shore City Council Land-use Capacity and Allocation Model 2005.
2.4 The Policy Context
The following review of the current policy context as it relates to intensification of Milford Town
Centre was informed by consultation with the Auckland Regional Council (ARC), Auckland Regional
Transport Authority (ARTA) and North Shore City Council (NSCC) conducted for this SIA in June
2007. In addition, the report Establishing a Classification for Auckland’s Centres and Corridors for
Auckland Regional Council (May 2007)9, which SGS authored was an input for the review.
Regional Planning and Policy
Regional strategic planning policy documents for Auckland indicate the desire for intensification
around town centres and transport nodes. The Auckland Regional Growth Strategy Growth Concept
2050 (1999) identifies Milford within a network of centres and corridors (see Figure 10). Regional
planning documents envisage that intensification will occur within the period 2005-201010. (This is
elaborated upon further below). It was noted through consultation for this study that although
regional strategic planning documents identify a desire for intensification, there has been a general
reluctance by developers to intensify in suburban town centres in Auckland (pers. comm. ARC, June
2007).
8 Including the Milford Business 2 Zone and the immediate residential area surrounding the Business 2 zone as shown in Figure 9. 9 http://www.arc.govt.nz/arc/auckland-region/growth/update-and-review-of-the-regional-growth-strategy.cfm 10 Schedule 1 in Appendix 1 of the Auckland Regional Policy Statement (ARPS) Proposed Plan Change 6, (July 2007).
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Figure 10. Auckland Regional Growth Strategy Growth Concept 2050 Map, 1999
Source: Auckland Regional Growth Strategy, 1999
The centres and corridors identified in the Auckland Regional Growth Strategy Growth Concept 2050
are intended to be focal points for business and employment, housing and community services as
well as being community meeting places. Centres are identified as important nodes connecting the
Regional Land Transport Strategy framework which identifies the planned and future potential rapid
transport network. The location of centres and their activity within the region is linked to access of
the centre to public transport as well as main roads or at the cross roads of main arterials.
Transport improvements proposed by the Auckland Regional Transport Authority are likely to result
in further improvements to the public transport network surrounding the site if plans are
implemented (pers. comm.. ARTA, June 2007).
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Figure 11. Proposed Rapid Transi t Network and Qual i ty Transi t Network to 2016
Source: Auckland Passenger Transport Network Plan 2006-2016 ARTA
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Since the release of the Auckland Regional Growth Strategy Growth Concept 2050 in 1999, centres
have been classified and in some cases have been attributed some priority in various strategic
planning documents. Milford is classified as a ‘Large Suburban Centre’ within the Auckland Regional
Council’s (ARC) Regional Analysis of Centres Activity (2006) and as a ‘Town Centre’ within the new
Schedule 1 in Appendix 1 of the Auckland Regional Policy Statement (ARPS) Proposed Plan Change
6, (July 2007). Schedule 1 of the ARPS (July 2007) indicates that detailed centre planning will be
carried during the period 2005-10 (District Plan changes are scheduled to be notified during this
period within the ARPS).
In July 2007, results from the recent evaluation of the Auckland Regional Growth Strategy Growth
Concept 2050 (1999) were released - Growing Smarter, the Auckland Region in the 21st Century.
The report identifies a number of proposed priority actions for the adoption of a polycentric growth
model in Auckland (Table 5).
Table 5. Proposed Pr ior i ty Act ions
Proposed Priority Actions for Improving Implementation of the ARGS To Be Endorsed By
Establish a refined classification for Auckland’s centres and corridors and business areas Mid 2008
Get the right 2008 planning in place to enable the region’s desired urban form in centres
and corridors
End 2008
Identify priority areas for implementation End 2008
Source: ARC, July 2007
Local Planning and Policy
At the local Council level, Milford is currently identified as a Town/Village Centre with more intensive
forms of residential development in and around its commercial centre11. North Shore City Council’s
(NSCC) City Blueprint concept plan, 2001, is shown below.
11 North Shore City Blueprint, 2001
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Figure 12. City Blueprint ‘L iv ing Ci ty ’ Concept Plan
Source: North Shore City Council 2001
Key priorities identified for the Milford centre identified within the City Blueprint Action Plan, 2001,
include the following:
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Informed by the North Shore City Blue Print 2001, the North Shore District Plan 2002 seeks to
encourage development opportunities in and around selected sub-regional, town and village centres
with an emphasis on “…a high standard of design and compatibility with surrounding activities”.
(The NSCC’s Good Solutions Guide for Apartments is supported by the District Plan to guide good
practice in design and compatibility with surrounding activities for apartment development.)
The site proposed for intensification is zoned Business 2 in the District Plan. This allows for mixed
use development to occur. The Plan emphasises the need to ensure the growth of employment and
economic activities in areas where residential development within business zoned areas is to occur:
• By managing residential development so it does not significantly reduce the availability of
land for business activities in the City’s general business areas and in those higher amenity
business areas outside of commercial centres.
• By ensuring that residential development in business areas is designed to avoid, remedy or
mitigate adverse effects on residential amenity from business activities12.
This is supported in within the North Shore City Council Economic Development Strategy, 2006.
The proposed development will not reduce the availability of land for business activities in the town
centre. As noted in Section 3 and 5 following, the proposed intensification is likely to contribute to
centre vibrancy and vitality. Residential intensification at centres strengthens local economies and
can improve centre viability and vitality by providing a larger and more diverse customer base,
particularly for local retail businesses and a focal point for business and economic activity. The
movement of new people into the area could further contribute to the vibrancy of the centre.
Without intensification at the Milford town centre this is unlikely to occur.
In summary:
• A number of regional and local planning and policy documents support land use
intensification at the Milford Town Centre and have an emphasis on good design and the
growth of employment and economic activity.
• Population, household and employment forecasts for Milford and the wider area are
consistent with the aim of intensification, but the pathway to ensuring intensification occurs
is unclear. Currently the zoning environment at the Town Centre is constrained, land
ownership is fragmented, vacant land is limited and density allowances are such that likely
increases in population, housing and employment may be difficult to achieve without a
significant development such as the MSC.
• North Shore City Council is in the process of undertaking a series of strategic planning
exercises in relation to each of its town centres to inform a review of its’ District Plan,
although detailed planning for Milford Centre is yet to commence. The centre has been
identified as a 2005 – 2010 priority for detailed planning.
12 NSCC District Plan 15.3
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3 Benefits and Costs of Residential Intensification in Centres
This section contains a qualitative discussion describing the social and economic benefits and costs of
intensification in existing centres with reference to regional and local impacts. The discussion draws
on a wide variety of literature (refer Section 8) as well as documents produced as part of the recent
review of the Auckland Growth Strategy by the Auckland Regional Growth Forum, including
International Trends and Lessons in Growth Management (2007), Stocktake of Existing Consultation
on Urban Intensification in Auckland: Final Report (2006), Intensification in Auckland, Developer
Survey (2006) and Social Implications of Housing Intensification in the Auckland Region: Analysis
and Review of Media Reports, Surveys and Literature (2005).
3.1 Background to Centres Policies
The implementation of centres policies have been a part of the history of planning in many
successful cities. Recent metropolitan planning strategies that have included centres policies in the
Australian context include the cities of Sydney, Melbourne, South East Queensland and Perth. In
addition, intensification in centres in overseas jurisdictions continues to be rigorously pursued,
particularly in New York, London, Tokyo, Toronto and Zurich.
The concept of a multi-centred city region has considerable longevity. Indeed, there has been a
centres policy in each of Sydney’s strategic plans since the 1948-51 County of Cumberland Plan each
being adjusted to address the needs of the time. Centres policies generally include objectives to
concentrate a greater range of activities near to one another making it is easier for people to go
about their daily activities. This can partly be reflected by the various economic, social and
environmental benefits that a centre can provide to urban regions, if supportive policy directions and
infrastructure and services are properly constructed and provided.
Interestingly, much of the push for increased medium and higher-density housing in centres is based
on the projection that there will be a larger proportion of smaller households in the future, with
larger numbers of older people, and an increasingly mobile population (Randolph et. al. 2005). The
logic is that there will be more demand for one and two bedroom accommodation, and thus it is
important to provide an appropriate mix of housing.
3.2 Regional Benefits and Costs
At a regional scale, the focus of housing and employment in town centres helps to achieve a compact
growth structure. It is strongly held that such a growth structure attracts a number of
environmental, economic and social benefits. Typically, these benefits are concerned with the
logistical and inventory advantages offered by urban consolidation policies.
Several studies show that higher density, contiguous urban development as opposed to fragmented,
low density development (so called ‘sprawl’) generates fewer vehicle kilometres of travel and saves
on transport infrastructure costs because of improved opportunities to utilise standing capacity (SGS
Economics and Planning 2007).
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Environmentally, more compact cities make more efficient use of urban land and leave non-urban
land on the fringe of regions to be maintained for other uses, be they agriculture, horticulture,
protection and management of areas of environmental, cultural or heritage significance. It also
assists in protecting rural landscapes and production areas from urban encroachment. In the
Auckland context, there is evidence of an appreciation of the important positive environmental
impacts intensification can have. The Stocktake of Existing Consultation on Urban Intensification in
Auckland Report suggests that allowing increased building heights and densities in existing town
centres is generally acceptable as it is regarded as protecting the value of existing residential areas
outside of the town centre and protecting the environment by minimizing urban sprawl. This benefit
provided by urban intensification sits within the purpose of the Resource Management Act which is to
promote the sustainable management of natural and physical resources.
A strong centres policy helps to reinforce ‘origin’ and ‘destination’ nodes across the metropolitan
public transport network. Origin stations tend to be the focus of the highest residential densities
across the region and typically account for a large proportion of stations. Conversely, destination
stations are fewer in number but provide a critical mass of employment and are generally well
spaced. This balance between origin and destination optimises movement, ensures greater
patronage, and allows a viable and sustainable public transport system to evolve.
Similarly, a compact growth structure optimises the use of existing infrastructure. Outward
metropolitan expansion requires provision of new capital works. This includes the expansion of
services geographically into new growth areas and linking infrastructure with the established
networks. Whilst infrastructure upgrading is still required, demand from ‘infill’ development can have
wider benefits than the provision of new infrastructure at the city edge (Auckland Regional Growth
Forum 2007).
Finally, urban living accounts for substantial health benefits. For example, modest increases in
physical activity, from less sedentary lifestyles, where public transport, walking and cycling (active
transport) choices encourage incidental activity, can reduce the need for medical treatment in those
at risk of diabetes. Research indicates that growing a compact city often gives an opportunity to
promote better public health and allow for greater physical activity which leads to less obesity -
related disease and diseases due to overall air pollution (Auckland Regional Growth Forum 2007).
Graham (2005) contends that more intensive urban development is associated with more walking
and cycling and less motor vehicle use than low density urban sprawl. The recognised connection
between urban sprawl and physical inactivity and obesity associated health problems highlights the
public health benefits of urban intensification.
One of the primary criticisms of the compact growth model is its tendency to increase pressure on
housing affordability as a result of constrained land supply. In the long-term this may result in both
employment and population relocating to other cities in response to increased costs of living and loss
of competitiveness (Fischel 1997). To ensure that the managed land release process does not
negatively impact housing affordability, many regions are implementing strategies that support and
encourage intensification in centres so that supply is not constrained.
At a regional level, compact growth strategies may increase pressure on housing affordability,
although this is debatable given the additional costs associated with travel and infrastructure
provision to more dispersed areas. Auckland-specific research indicates that there are contrasting
community perceptions regarding the impact of intensification on housing affordability. Surveys
reviewed in Syme et al (2005) noted that many residents felt that intensified living had given them
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the opportunity to afford their own home, and provided an entry point into the housing market.
However some consultation highlighted community concern that poorer residents could get pushed
out by growth.
3.3 Local Benefits and Costs
Centres planning stems from the theory of cluster development or agglomeration economies. Rather
than dispersing activity, economic, environmental and social benefits can be realised for the
community from greater co-location. These are important local benefits.
Generally, the benefits of centres planning refer to the concentration of people, common
infrastructure, an available and diverse labour forces and market size. In this light, denser urban
agglomerations generate higher levels of productivity and higher returns to business and workers
which benefits the community as a whole (Paling et. al. 2007).
Residential intensification strengthens local economies and improves centre viability and vitality by
providing a larger and more diverse customer base, particularly for local retail businesses. Retail,
café/restaurants, finance and insurance, communication services, property and business services,
health, education and other similar sectors generally prefer to be located in or close to town centres,
with ready access to a customer base and good road and public transport access. In the Auckland
context, the Stocktake of Existing Consultation on Urban Intensification in Auckland Report indicates
that increasing residential development in centres was seen as a key factor in supporting,
strengthening and broadening the availability of retail and services indicating that encouraging well
designed housing in a mixed use environment could be beneficial for compatible businesses and
provide more jobs. Such centre revitalisation relates to one of the key principles of the Resource
Management Act, to maintain and enhance amenity values (RMA Act 1991, Part 2).
Environmentally, one of the perceived benefits of urban consolidation is that increasing residential
densities around public transport nodes (i.e. centres) will encourage more people to use this mode of
travel. The flow-on benefits of such a strategy are a consequential decline in car and energy use and
greenhouse gas emissions (Randolph et. al. 2005). Car ownership can be considered as a surrogate
for the use of public transport, walking and cycling for the journey to work (JTW). The Australian
2001 census allows car ownership to be matched against defined centre boundaries. Figures for
Sydney clearly indicate that those living within 1 km of railway stations possess fewer cars than
those in the remainder of the of the local government area (Cox Richardson 2004). Additionally the
co-location of activities stimulates greater walking because activities are closer.
According the Social Implications of Housing Intensification in the Auckland Region Report (2005),
although the level of intensification so far achieved in Auckland has not significantly lifted public
transport services or been to a level that has supported additional public services in areas of change,
the surveys reviewed indicate higher use of passenger transport by residents of intensive housing
developments, and lower rates of car ownership, when compared to non-residents in surrounding
areas. This is supported by comments within these surveys by residents and non-residents of higher
density developments many of whom emphasised the positives associated with higher population
numbers along public transport routes.
Socially, co-location allows equitable access, particularly by public transport, to a high proportion of
residents which would otherwise need to rely on private transport to engage in daily activities. Apart
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from allowing better access to metropolitan level facilities for a large number of people, a strong and
vibrant centre also provides a focus to an area, providing a sense of identity to residents. In the
Auckland context, a range of community perceptions regarding the impact of intensification on
social-cohesion and identity are evident. However, consultation results specific to Milford Town
Centre are not available, the local community’s perceptions therefore remain untested.
Further, residential intensification in centres diversifies housing products, catering for a wide
demographic spectrum. Focusing residential development in centres also ensures that ‘infill’
development does not infiltrate suburban settings outside of the centre (usually 1km radius). In this
way, intensifying residential development preserves the character of suburban localities. The Sydney
Metropolitan Strategy has highlighted this by concentrating residential development in centres, 80%
of suburban streets are quarantined from infill development (Department of Planning 2007). In the
Auckland context the community has expressed a need for a mix of housing types for different
cultures, ages and incomes in areas that are accessible to public transport (Auckland Regional
Growth Forum 2006).
The risks associated with a decline in housing affordability associated with intensification at the local
level are not clear, as there is pressure on housing affordability generally, however, it is
acknowledged that intensification has the potential to lead to higher development costs (for
example, land costs and the cost of constructing underground and/or structured carparking).
Conversely, however, apartments are generally more affordable that detached dwellings on larger
lots. Therefore, although the development is unlikely to provide ‘affordable housing’ per se, it is
likely that general affordability for home purchasers is likely to be assisted to some degree with the
MSC development through an increase in dwelling supply and contribution to greater diversity in the
type of dwellings available in the Milford area.
There is a concern prevalent in Auckland that high density developments will be the ‘slums of the
future’. There is strong community perception that an increase of apartments will lead to a higher
number of renters or low income households inevitably leading to a change in the socio-economic
structure of the area. Greater levels of community consultation and examples of good quality urban
design in higher density developments are important components in allaying these (generally
unfounded) fears and to ensure that measures to ensure potential new comers to an area add rather
than detract from the social fabric or centres.
The quality of design in high and medium density residential development is a key issue of
relevance. The Stocktake of Existing Consultation on Urban Intensification in Auckland Report and
Social Implications of Housing Intensification in the Auckland Region Report both contend that
concerns over quality rated highest in community consultation and surveys. This included design
quality in relation to both the quality of building design, as well as the interaction of the building with
the surrounding environment including streetscapes, the character and scale of building and its
contribution to coherent urban design. This concern is echoed by developers13 who noted that a lack
of incentive for innovation and design within the district planning process and lack of consistency in
implementing policy is lowering the standard of higher density developments.
A range of other issues relating to the design of development have been raised in relation to
pursuing more intensive mixed use in centres. For example, reverse sensitivity is an issue and risk
13 Auckland Regional Growth Forum, (2006) Developer Survey: Intensification in Auckland
Unpublished Report.
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for some existing businesses when more sensitive land uses like residential development are
constructed nearby and complaints relating to noise, amenity or traffic are reported by new
residents. The extent to which reverse sensitivity is an issue is related to building quality as well as
the expectations of residents in centres. Reverse sensitivity is an intra-zone issue requiring
appropriate design standards for new development including buffering, ground level integration,
compliance with noise standards for example.
3.4 Summary of Benefits and Costs
As was discussed in the previous section, it is important to acknowledge that residential
intensification in centres are maximised when development is carried out in a sustainable manner
and to a high standard. Similarly, the full range of benefits of residential intensification in centres
are only generally realised after a number of elements are present within a centre including:
• A reliable and convenient public transport system;
• An established network of ‘origin’ and ‘destination’ transport nodes throughout the region;
• A good mix of commercial and retail land uses;
• A good mix of housing types and tenures;
• The presence of cultural, social and health facilities;
• A high quality urban environment including parks, recreation and walking facilities and
plazas.
There are potential costs as well as benefits, but overall intensification in the right location can be
strongly positive at both a regional and local level. The general benefits and costs of residential
intensification are outlined below.
Benefits
The general benefits of residential intensification include:
• Strengthening of local economies through an expanded customer base;
• Improving access to retail, office, health, education, leisure, entertainment and cultural
facilities and community and personal services;
• Providing equitable access, particularly by public transport, to a high proportion of a
community which would otherwise be denied easy access;
• Optimising the use of services and infrastructure;
• Reducing car dependency;
• Providing more opportunities for increased walking and cycling which provides for a healthier
environment;
• Allowing for multiple use of facilities and the co-location of activities;
• Increasing housing mix;
• Preserving the character of suburban localities by concentrating development in centres;
• Potentially providing more affordable accommodation for people who desire to live in a
certain area through the option of a range of housing types;
• Creating more interesting places to live and providing a strong identity to residents; and
• Protecting rural landscapes and production areas from urban encroachment.
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Costs
If not appropriately planned or considered, the preceding discussions have shown that there can also
be costs associated with intensification. Issues to be aware of regarding intensification include:
• Ensuring adequate public transport is present in the centre, to ensure the increased
population does not equate with increased congestion and car usage;
• Ensuring that appropriate strategies are put in place such that growth at a regional level
does not increase pressure on housing affordability;
• Ensuring that the community is adequately consulted regarding intensification and that
measures to ensure potential new comers to an area add rather than detract from the social
fabric or centres;
• Ensuring that adequate infrastructure is present, but the requirement for land and
infrastructure does not detract from affordability.
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4 Baseline of Social and Economic Conditions
4.1 Introduction
This section of the report provides a socio-demographic and socio-economic overview of the
immediate locality surrounding the site proposed for the residential intensification. The analysis
addresses the following characteristics:
• Demographic;
• Socio-Economic;
• Housing;
• Employment and Economy;
• Infrastructure;
• Transport and Access; and
• Community Services, Programs and Facilities.
This analysis compares and contrasts the immediate locality surrounding the site proposed for the
residential intensification (referred to as the Milford Town Centre area) with the North Shore City
Council Area (NSCC) and Auckland Region (Figure 13). The Milford Town Centre area is made up of
Census Mesh Blocks that have been aggregated to best align with the Milford Town Centre area used
by North Shore City Council in its population, dwelling and employment projections14, (refer to Figure
9) (NSCC Land-Use Capacity and Allocation Model 2005).
Figure 13. Mil ford Town Centre Area Relat ive to Surrounding Region
Source: SGS Economics and Planning
14 Including the Milford Business 2 Zone and the immediate residential area surrounding the Business 2 zone.
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4.2 Demographic Characteristics
Population and Sex Structure
In 2006, Milford Town Centre Area had a usual resident population of 3,567. Figure 14 below shows
the age structure of the population in relation to the North Shore City and Auckland averages.
Compared with the two benchmark areas, Milford had an older population, with 24.4% of the
population aged 65 years or older (compared with 10.8% for North Shore city and 9.9% for
Auckland). There were also fewer young children, teenagers and young adults residing in the area.
Figure 15 shows the change in median age in Milford between 1991 and 2006. In 2006, the median
age in Milford Town Centre Area (46.8 years) was significantly older than NSCC area (35 years) or
the Auckland region (33 years), indicating a likely future ageing population.
Figure 14. Age Structure, 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
% o
f per
sons
Milford Centre 4.2 5.1 5.4 5.8 5.1 4.4 5.0 6.4 7.1 6.7 5.5 7.6 6.7 24.4
NSCC 6.1 6.5 7.2 7.8 7.6 6.2 7.1 8.1 8.4 7.7 6.4 5.8 4.3 10.8
Auckland 7.2 7.3 7.6 7.6 7.6 6.9 7.6 8.1 8.1 7.1 5.9 5.2 3.9 9.9
0-4 Years
5-9 Years
10-14 Years
15-19 Years
20-24 Years
25-29 Years
30-34 Years
35-39 Years
40-44 Years
45-49 Years
50-54 Years
55-59 Years
60-64 Years
65+ Years
Source: Statistics NZ 2006
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Figure 15. Median Age 1991-2006
25
30
35
40
45
50M
edia
n Ag
e
Milford 45 47 48 46
NSCC 33 34 35 35
Auckland 30 32 33 33
1991 1996 2001 2006
Source: Statistics NZ
Figure 16 shows the proportional distribution of persons aged 65 years and older in the NSCC and
indicates a high proportion of residents within the Milford Town Centre Area and surrounds aged 65
years and over.
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Figure 16. Distr ibut ion of Older Person 2006
Source: SGS Economics and Planning, Statistics NZ 2006
Years of Usual Residence (incl. last 5 years)
Data concerning the number of years at usual residence provides a view on the stability of the
population within a given area. As shown in Figure 17 below, the majority of residents in Milford
Town Centre Area have lived in their place of usual residence for between ‘1-9 years’ (46.9%), but it
is interesting to note that a higher proportion of residents have lived in their place of usual residence
for ’10-29 years’ (23.8%) or ’30 or more years’ (3.9%) when compared with those in NSCC and the
Auckland Region. This indicates that a large component of the Milford population have been within
the area for a significant amount of time.
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Figure 17. Years at Usual Residence, 2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% o
f per
sons
Milford Centre 20.6 46.9 23.8 3.9
North Shore City 23.8 50.1 18.0 3.6
Auckland 23.4 48.5 17.3 3.2
0 Years 1-9 Years 10-29 years 30 or more years
Source: Statistics NZ 2006
Household Type
In 2006 there were 1,539 households in Milford in 2006 and the average number of people per
household was 2.3 people. Figure 18 shows a comparison of household type structure of the Milford
Town Centre Area and the NSCC and Auckland Region. Although Milford Town Centre Area was
dominated by ‘Family Households’15 (64.0%), compared with the surrounding NSCC and Region,
Milford Town Centre Area had significantly more ‘One Person Households’ with 31.1% compared with
18.8% for North Shore City and 19.1% for Auckland.
15 As defined by Statistics NZ, ‘Family Households’ are a “household containing two or more people usually living together with at least one couple and/or parent-child relationship, with/without other people”. They therefore include both ‘couple families with children’ and ‘couple families without children’.
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Figure 18. Household Type, 2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80%
of o
ccup
ied
priv
ate
dwel
lings
Milford Centre 64.0 3.9 31.1
North Shore City 75.3 4.7 18.8
Auckland 73.0 5.2 19.1
Family Household Multi-Person Household One Person Household
Source: Statistics NZ 2006
Detailed analysis of Census meshblock data (Figure 19) shows the location of one person
households. There was a greater concentration of one person households in the south/south-west
area of Milford Town Centre Area, with 20-60% of households identifying as a ‘one person
household’.
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Figure 19. Distr ibut ion of One Person Households 2006
Source: Statistics NZ and SGS Economics and Planning
Figure 20 below shows the change in household type between 2001 and 2006. There was a steady
increase in the number of family households16 in Milford Town Centre Area and a relatively steady
number of one person households, with a slight decrease between 2001 and 2001. This trend is in
line with the increasing proportion of young children identified earlier.
16 As defined previously.
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Figure 20. Household Type 1991-2006
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200N
o. o
f hou
seho
lds
1991 843 93 465
1996 927 51 489
2001 948 51 510
2006 993 60 483
Family Household Multi-Person Household One Person Household
Source: Statistics NZ
Ethnicity and Language Characteristics
As shown in Table 6, 66.1% of Milford Town Centre Area’s population was born in New Zealand. A
lower proportion of NSCC’s population was born in New Zealand than either Milford Town Centre
Area or Auckland.
Table 6. Bir thplace, 2006
Born in NZ Born Overseas
Milford Town Centre Area 66.1% 31.9%
North Shore City 57.4% 31.6%
Auckland 59.6% 35.0%
* Excludes category ‘not elsewhere included’
Milford Town Centre Area had a similar ethnic profile and language profile to NSCC overall.
European Ethnic origin is the most dominant ethnicity of all areas.
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4.3 Socio-Economic Characteristics
Household Income and Source of Income
As shown in Figure 21, Milford and North Shore City were characterised by a high percentage of very
high income households (those earning $100,000 or more per yea), in line with trends for NSCC.
Figure 21. Household Income, 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
% o
f occ
upie
d pr
ivat
e dw
ellin
gs
Milford Centre 14.0 9.1 13.6 11.1 10.9 27.4
North Shore City 10.3 7.6 13.3 12.6 15.5 27.2
Auckland 11.2 7.9 13.6 12.3 14.0 22.9
$20,000 or Less $20,001 - $30,000 $30,001 - $50,000 $50,001 - $70,000 $70,001 - $100,000
$100,001 or More
Figure 22 shows the distribution of high income (>$100,001 per year) households in North Shore
City TLA. There was a concentration of high income households in areas of high environmental
amenity - along the foreshores of Auckland Harbour, the coast, Lake Pupuke and on the rural
fringes. The coastal areas of Milford Town Centre Area had a higher proportion of high income
households for example. Overall Milford had a greater proportion of high income households than the
central and south-west areas of the TLA.
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Figure 22. Distr ibut ion of High Income Households 2006
Source: Statistics NZ and SGS Economics and Planning
Figure 23 shows the proportional distribution of household income source for Milford Town Centre
Area and the surrounding TLA and Region. Milford Town Centre Area had a far lower proportion of
households that obtain their income through ‘Wages, salary etc’ (50.1%) than NSCC (71.9%) or
Auckland (69.6%). As would be expected from the older age profile in Milford Town Centre Area, a
high proportion of households obtained their income from NZ and Other Superannuation and
Pensions (40.6%). There are also a high proportion of households who obtained some of their
income from ‘Interest, Dividends etc’ (49.5%).
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Figure 23. Household Sources of Income*
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80%
of h
ouse
hold
s
Milford Centre 50.1 24.5 49.5 0.6 33.7 6.9 1.5 2.3 6.2
North Shore City 71.9 28.9 38.4 2.1 17.7 5.5 2.8 4.4 13.2
Auckland 69.6 25.3 31.5 2.0 16.5 4.1 4.7 4.3 18.2
Wages, Salary, etc
Self-employment or Business
Interest, Dividends,
etc
Work Accident Insurer
NZ Super-annuation
Other Super.,
Pensions
Unemployment Benefit
Student Allow ance
Other Govt. Benefit
* The chart represents all sources of income not only main source of income.
Qualifications of Residents
Figure 24 shows the proportion of the Milford Town Centre Area and NSCC populations with post
high-school qualifications, compared with the same proportions for Auckland. Overall, Milford Town
Centre Area had higher proportions of residents with a Diploma or higher qualification.
The proportion of residents with ‘No Qualification’ was the same for Milford Town Centre Area and
NSCC with 12.9% of the population. This is far lower than the proportion of residents in the Auckland
Region with ‘No Qualifications’ (18.1%). This indicates that Milford Town Centre Area and NSCC have
a highly skilled population.
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Figure 24. Highest Qual i f icat ion Prof i le, 2006
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20%
of p
erso
ns
Milford Centre 12.9 10.9 11.0 17.1 6.4
North Shore City 12.9 12.5 10.2 15.4 5.9
Auckland 18.1 11.6 8.5 12.7 5.0
No Qualif ication Certif icate (post school)
Diploma Bachelor Degree & Level 7 Qualif.
Postgraduate Degree
* doesn't equal 100% (other school obtained qualifications not included)
Source: Statistics NZ 2006
Health
Statistics NZ collects information relating to births, deaths and hospital discharges for the North
Shore TLA (Quarterly Review, Statistics NZ 2007). This data indicates the relatively high and stable
health status of residents with the following health trends recorded in the North Shore City Council
area for the year ending March 2007:
• There was an increase in live births and a decline in deaths for the year ending March 2007;
• In March 2007, there was a slightly higher number of hospital discharges than the previous
year;
• Hospitalisations were most regularly and as a result of Injury and Poisoning (14.4%) and
Complications relating to Pregnancy and Childbirth (10.5%).
Research conducted for this study did not indicate that the health status of residents in the Milford
Town Centre Area is likely to deviate significantly from population health in the North Shore LGA.
Given the relative wealth of the area and the good environment of its surrounds, the health of the
current population in the Milford area is likely to be high.
Crime and Safety
Crime statistics available for the wider North Shore region indicate that the majority of reported
crime related to minor offences. During the year ended 31 December 2006, there were 40,206
crimes recorded in the North Shore/Waitakere Police District, an increase of 5.8% from the previous
year. The majority of crimes were for dishonesty offences (55.9%) followed by violence offences
(13.1%) and drugs and anti-social behaviour (13.0%) (Quarterly Review, Statistics New Zealand
2007). Consultation conducted for this study indicated that the level of crime and safety in the
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Milford Town Centre area is not likely to deviate significantly from that in the wider LGA
(Birkenhead/Northcote Community Coordinator / Board Chair pers. comm.. June 2007).
Community Wellbeing
North Shore appear to have higher life expectancy than other regions in NZ, indicating good general
health within the area, better access to health services and good social and economic conditions
(Ministry for Social Development 200617). Analysis conducted for this study indicates that the level
of community wellbeing in the Milford Town Centre area is not likely to deviate significantly from that
in the wider LGA.
4.4 Housing Characteristics
Housing Type and Tenure
An inspection of the area immediately surrounding the site (June 2007) showed that detached
dwellings dominate both the Milford Town Centre area and the surrounding areas. However, in the
wider Lake Pupuke Area Unit area (used in this analysis due to lack of data relating to the Milford
Town Centre Area18) there was a higher proportion of ‘Two or more Flats, Townhouses, Apartments,
Houses Joined’ than either North Shore City TLA or Auckland Region (Figure 25). It is noted that the
distribution of this data (as shown in Mesh Block data) is not available (39.5% for Lake Pupke Area
compared to 22.7% and 22.5% for North Shore City TLA and Auckland Region respectively).
Figure 25. Dwel l ing Type 2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
% o
f occ
upie
d pr
ivat
e dw
ellin
gs
Lake Pupuke 56.7 39.5 0.3 3.5
North Shore City 73.9 22.7 0.1 3.3
Auckland Region 71.0 22.5 0.4 6.1
Separate HouseTw o or More
Flats/Units/Tow nhouses/Apartments/Houses Joined
Other Occupied Private Dw ellings
Occupied Private Dw elling Not Further Defined
Source: Statistics NZ 2006
17 Ministry of Social Development (2006) North Shore City Quality of Life report, access at www.northshorecity.gov.nz on 3rd August 2007 18 The Lake Pupuke Area Unit Area used in this analysis is similar in size, but of a slightly different geography to the study area referred to in the remainder of this section of the report.
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As shown in Figure 26 Milford had a higher proportion of one (16.7%) and two (36.1%) person
households residing in separate houses in 2006 than either NSCC or Auckland Region. Figure 27
below shows that Milford also had a much higher proportion of occupied attached dwellings with one
person households (46.9%) than NSCC (36.3%) and the Auckland Region (35.6%).
Figure 27. Dwel l ing Type by Number of Usual Residents, At tached Dwel l ings, 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
% o
f occ
upie
d pr
ivat
e ho
useh
olds
Milford Centre 46.9 35.3 10.5 7.3
North Shore City 36.3 35.5 15.1 13.1
Auckland 35.6 34.3 14.7 15.4
1 Usual Resident 2 Usual Resident 3 Usual Resident 4 or more Usual Resident
Source: Statistics NZ 2006
Figure 26. Dwell ing Type by Number of Usual Residents, Separate Houses, 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
% o
f occ
upie
d pr
ivat
e ho
useh
olds
Milford Centre 16.7 36.1 18.6 28.6
North Shore City 12.7 30.4 20.4 36.5
Auckland 13.0 29.1 19.3 38.6
1 Usual Resident 2 Usual Resident 3 Usual Resident 4 or more Usual Resident
Source: Statistics NZ 2006
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Figure 28 shows the proportional distribution of dwelling tenure for the Milford Town Centre Area
compared with the TLA and wider Region. When compared with Auckland, Milford Town Centre Area
had a higher proportion of ‘Dwellings owned, partly owned or in Family Trust by Usual Resident’
(65.8% compared with 59.3%) and a lower proportion of ‘Dwelling not owned by Usual Resident’
(28.9% compared with 33.6%). NSCC is characterised by a high level of home ownership. A high
level of homeownership in the Milford area is not surprising given the relative stability of the local
population, as discussed in Section 4.2.
Figure 28. Dwell ing Tenure, 2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
% o
f occ
upie
d pr
ivat
e dw
ellin
gs
Milford Centre 65.8 28.9 5.0
North Shore City 67.3 28.4 4.2
Auckland 59.3 33.6 7.1
Dw elling Ow ned, Partly Ow ned or in Family Trust by Usual
Resident(s)
Dw elling Not Ow ned by Usual Resident(s) Not Elsew here Included
Source: Statistics NZ 2006
Figure 29 and Figure 30 show the distribution of housing tenure type for NSCC. There was a higher
concentration of full or partial home ownership on the Waitemata foreshore area and the north-east
area of NSCC, including the Hauraki Gulf foreshore. Milford Town Centre Area had a comparatively
high concentration of full or partial home ownership.
There were a higher proportion of households who do not own their place of usual residence in the
south east area of Milford Town Centre Area. In comparison to the wider NSCC, Milford Town Centre
had a similar proportion of households in rental housing.
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Figure 29. Dwel l ing Tenure – Ful l or Part ia l Home Ownership 2006
Source: Statistics NZ and SGS Economics and Planning
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Figure 30. Housing Tenure – Rent ing 2006
Source: Statistics NZ and SGS Economics and Planning
Housing Cost
Figure 31 below shows the median dwelling price for Milford/Takapuna and the Auckland Region. It is
also noted that median dwelling price in NSCC in January 2007 was approximately $549,00019. This
chart shows a considerable increase in housing cost in both the Milford Area and the Auckland
Region over the last 15 years. The Milford/Takapuna area has a significantly higher median dwelling
price ($657,500) than both North Shore City TLA and Auckland Region.
19 Crockers (2007) Crocker’s Market Research, Issue 22 March 2007
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Figure 31. Median Dwel l ing Pr ice May 1992-May 2007 for Mi l ford/Takapuna and Auckland
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Med
ian
Dw
ellin
g Pr
ice
($'0
00)
Milford/Takapuna 180 191 228 250 328 330 313.5 380 305 330 360 381 460 530 560 657.5
Auckland 135 145 166 178 227.5 235 234.5 230 237.5 235 266 292 339 370 400 450
May 1992
May 1993
May 1994
May 1995
May 1996
May 1997
May 1998
May 1999
May 2000
May 2001
May 2002
May 2003
May 2004
May 2005
May 2006
May 2007
Source: Real Estate Institute of New Zealand, SGS Economics and Planning
Figure 32 below shows the change in median rents in Milford/Takapuna between May 2006 and May
2007. The most significant increase was in 3 bedroom dwellings (an additional $75 per week on the
2006 base). There was a slight increase in 2 bedroom dwellings ($5 per week) but no increase in 4
bedroom dwellings. There was no information for 1 bedroom dwellings in the Milford area.
Figure 32. Milford/Takapuna Median Rents May 2006 and May 2007
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Med
ian
Ren
t $ P
er W
eek
May-06 325 390 500
May-07 330 465 500
2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4 bedroom
Crockers Market Research, Issue 26 July 2007, SGS Economics and Planning
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4.5 Employment and Economy
Employment
The following analysis uses 2006 census data for usual resident population and workplace address
and refers to the characteristics of employment within the Milford Town Centre Area and also of the
residents of Milford Town Centre Area.
Figure 33 shows the employment profile of Milford Residents. In 2006, 1,812 usual residents
participated in the workforce. The Milford Town Centre Area was characterised by a low (and
declining) number of unemployed and increases employment in both the full- and part-time
positions.
Figure 33. Employment Status 1991-2006
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
No.
of P
erso
ns
1991 1089 297 108
1996 1173 381 57
2001 1185 366 78
2006 1320 426 66
Employed Full-Time Employed Part-Time Unemployed
Source: Statistics NZ 2006
At the time of the 2006 census, the unemployment rate in NSCC was 4.3%, compared with 5.6% for
Auckland Region.
Industry of Employment
Figure 34 shows the distribution of employment by industry of usual residents and labour force in
Milford. Residents of Milford were predominantly employed in the Property and Business Sector (348
employed). This sector had almost double the number of employees of the next sector, Retail and
Trade (183). Residents of the Centre were also employed in the Education and Health and
Community Services Industries.
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People who work in Milford Town Centre Area are predominantly employed in Retail Trade (441
employed) and Property and Business Services (306 employed).
Figure 34. Employment by Industry, Mi l ford Town Centre Area 2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Propert
y and
Busine
ss Servi
ces
Retail Trad
e
Manufac
turing
Health and
Com
munity
Serv
ices
Constru
ction
Finance
and In
suranc
e
Wholesa
le Trad
e
Educa
tion
Not Else
where In
clude
d
Cultural
and R
ecreati
onal S
ervice
s
Accom
modati
on, C
afes a
nd Res
taurants
Transport
and Stor
age
Govern
ment A
dmini
stratio
n and D
efenc
e
Person
al and O
ther S
ervice
s
Communicati
on S
ervice
s
Electric
ity, G
as and
Wate
r Sup
ply
Agricu
lture,
Forestry
and Fish
ingMini
ng
No.
of p
erso
ns E
mpl
oyed
Milford Centre (Usual Residents)Milford Centre (Labour force)
Source: Statistics NZ 2006
Occupation
Figure 35 shows the distribution of employment by occupation of usual residents and labour force in
Milford Town Centre Area. Usual Residents of Milford Town Centre Area were predominantly
employed as Managers (387 employed) and professionals (465 employed). In contrast, the labour
force consisted of a high number of ‘Sales Workers’ (390 employed) and a smaller number of
Professionals (264 employed) and Managers (225 employed).
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Figure 35. Occupat ional Prof i le, Mi l ford Town Centre Area, 2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500N
o. e
mpl
oyee
s
Milford Centre (Usual Residents) 387 465 141 108 258 177 51 51
Milford Centre (Labour force) 225 264 114 135 201 390 33 54
Managers ProfessionalsTechnicians and Trades
Workers
Community and Personal
Service
Clerical and Administrative
Workers
Sales Workers
Machinery Operators
and DriversLabourers
Source: Statistics NZ 2006
Retail and Commercial - Rent and Sales
Consultation conducted for this study indicated that there is high demand for retail and commercial
floor space in the town centre area within the mainstreet precinct surrounding the MSC site and
potential for more, small, boutique development in the future (development including industries
comprising between 5-10 employees in niche industries for example) (pers. comm.. NSCC, June
2007).
Consultation with retail and commercial real estate agents based on the North Shore has indicated
that retail rents in Milford range between $280/sqm and $380/sqm. Respondents in the consultation
phase indicated that rents are driven by the quality of space and size rather than the precinct within
which it is located with premiums paid for smaller and higher quality space. Demand for retail
tenancies in the mainstreet area of Milford Town Centre (eg, Kitchener Rd) is extremely strong and
this is reflected to a large extent by the prevalence of long term (5-6yr) leases. The Business 2 zone
area surrounding the shopping centre site has very low vacancies and short vacancy timeframes
when they do occur – most tenancies are re-tenanted within a maximum of 1 or 2 weeks (Pers.
Comm., Barfoot and Thompson, June 2007).
Discussions with key informants indicated that retail sales in the Milford area are rare; however
there have been a couple recently. Retail investment in Milford generally locally based, with
investors preferring to be located close to their investment. Sales recently have achieved an
average 6% capitalisation rate20 (Pers. Comm., Barfoot and Thompson, June 2007).
20 ‘Capitalisation Rate’ is a measure of the ratio between the cash flow produced by an asset (real estate) and its capital cost (the original price paid to own the asset).
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Vacancy rates in Auckland are currently at historic lows and retail vacancy rates within North Shore
City have dropped over the last year from 2.9% to 2.4%. The current vacancy rate is similar to
Auckland City and slightly higher than the overall rate for Auckland (Pers. Comm., Barfoot and
Thompson, June 2007).
Consultation has indicated that Milford does not have a large amount of commercial office space and
as a result, the area which is available is readily lettable. The majority of office space available is B
and C Grade and rents for approximately $180-$220sqm. Commercial office space in Milford is
characterised by a large number owner occupiers providing services to the local community (Pers.
Comm., Barfoot and Thompson, June 2007). Within North Shore City TLA, the office market much
stronger in Takapuna which in September 2007 had a vacancy rate of 4%. A Grade commercial
space in Takapuna achieves between $275 and $350sqm/pa, with B grade achieving between $220
and $275sqm/pa. C Grade office space in Takapuna achieves similar levels to that in Milford Town
Centre21.
4.6 Water and Sewerage Infrastructure
The Milford Catchment does not appear to have any significant issues relating to infrastructure
provision currently given present loads on the system (Pers. Comm. NSCC, August 2007), although
the capacity of wastewater infrastructure in the Milford area is still to be confirmed as part of North
Shore City Council’s Strategic Review of the Trunk Network. The level of development proposed by
the client (and other developers in Milford and Takapuna) may require substantial investment in
network upgrades (Pers. Comm. NSCC, August 2007) but it is noted that this will be a requirement
of any approval given.
Preliminary consultation carried out for the proposed development has indicated that water supply
infrastructure will need to be improved prior to intensification. NSCC is in the process of
investigating the Milford Takapuna Area, which is estimated to take at least 15 months. Likely
population and employment growth in Takapuna and Milford would be assessed concurrently in
terms of wastewater capacity as they both flow to the same Pump Station (Pers. Comm. NSCC,
August 2007).
4.7 Transport and Access
Road Infrastructure
The site is located in close proximity to major road infrastructure. The Milford Town Centre Area is
located near the intersection of four major roads (Kitchener Rd, Shakespeare Rd, Omana Rd and
East Coast Road). The Milford Town Centre Area is easily accessible to Auckland and Albany via the
Northern Motorway. The adequacy of road infrastructure is being assessed by a separate report.
21 Colliers (2007) Auckland Metropolitan Office Report, Spring 2007.
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Mode Share – Usual Residents
Figure 36 shows the proportional distribution of travel mode for work trips by residents of Milford
Town Centre Area compared with NSCC and Auckland Region. Travel by car (either driver of a
private or company vehicle or as a passenger) was by far the most popular form of transport for all
areas. For Milford Town Centre Area, a higher proportion of residents travelled to work by public bus,
walked or jogged or worked from home than either of the benchmark areas.
Figure 36. Mode Share of Work Tr ips, 2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% o
f usu
al re
side
nts
Milford Centre 9.0 10.9 49.2 10.2 2.9 6.6 0.0 0.5 0.7 5.0 0.5 4.3
North Shore City 6.7 10.2 52.0 11.5 4.0 5.8 0.0 0.5 0.7 3.0 1.8 3.9
Auckland 6.5 9.5 51.8 10.9 4.6 4.5 0.9 0.5 0.8 3.8 1.0 5.1
Worked at Home
Did not go to Work Today
Drove a Private
Car, Truck
Drove a Company Car, Truck
Passenger in a Car,
Truck, Public Bus Train
Motor Cycle or Pow er
BicycleWalked or
Jogged OtherNot
Elsew here Included
Source: Statistics NZ, 2006.
Public Transport and Walkability
The centre is currently well serviced by Bus and Taxis. In total, 11 bus services pass by the Milford
Shopping Centre Site with 4 bus stops in the vicinity of the site - 2 on Milford Road and 2 on
Kitchener Road. The local area is also well served by taxi ranks and taxi services generally.
As discussed in Section 2.4, improvements proposed by the Auckland Regional Transport Authority
would result in further improvements to the public transport network servicing the Milford town
centre. This would result in improved connections between Milford, other centres and employment
areas (including the Auckland CBD) through improved connections to the proposed Bus Rapid Transit
stations located along the motorway corridor.
As discussed in Section 2.1, the Milford Town Centre is relatively flat, making the Centre easy to
access for local pedestrians.
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4.8 Community Services, Programs and Facilities
Consultation and investigations undertaken as part of this study have shown that the Milford region
has some but not many community facilities, particularly for an ageing population and that there
may be the requirement for marginal augmentation to existing facilities if intensification occurs
(Pers. comm.. Birkenhead Northcote Community Board / Community Coordinator, June 2007, Age
Concern, pers comm. Aug 2007)22.
Figure 37 shows the current location of education, health and community facilities in the area
surrounding the study site.
Age Concern, a community group which provides facilities and services for senior citizens including
transportation, home assistance, and education, indicated that intensification of the Milford Town
Centre could be accommodated by existing facilities, although there may be the need to provide
additional offices and meeting rooms for the general population (pers. comm.. August 2007).
There are no art galleries, theatres, police stations and golf courses in Milford Town Centre. It is
noted that these higher order facilities are available in Takapuna. A number of schools, medical
facilities and places of worship are located in the area.
Figure 38 shows the location of open space and reserves in the area surrounding the Milford Town
Centre. The Milford Town Centre is in close proximity to Sylvan Park and Brian Byrne’s Reserve.
Public access to the Waitemata foreshore is also within walking distance from the site (along Milford
Road).
22 While the interview conducted with the Birkenhead Northcote Community Board Chair and Community Coordinator for this study focused on the Birkenhead / Highbury area, a number of comments were also recorded about the Milford area, as informed by the interviewee’s knowledge of the wider North Shore area and work with North Shore City Council.
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Figure 37. Education, Heal th and Community Faci l i t ies, Mi l ford
Source: www.wises.co.nz
Figure 38. Open Space and Reserves, Mi l ford
Source: www.wises.co.nz
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4.9 Summary of Baseline Conditions
Key baseline characteristics of Milford Town Centre are summarised below.
Demographic Characteristics
• In 2006, the Census population of the locality was 3,567 persons.
• Compared with North Shore City Council area, Milford Town Centre area had a high
proportion of people of pre-retirement and retirement age (55 years and older).
• There had been a steady decline of 20-34 year olds over the past 15 years (1991-2006), but
an increase in young children into the area.
• In 2006, the median age in Milford Town Centre Area (46.8 years) was significantly older
than NSCC area (35 years) or the Auckland region (33 years), indicating a likely future
ageing population.
• Declining household size is a general trend across the Auckland region in line with the ageing
of the population and other social trends. Time series analysis shows that the proportion of
one person households has remained relatively stable, while the number of family
households has increased over the past 15 years (1991-2006).
Community Wellbeing
• Milford and North Shore City were characterised by a high percentage of very high income
households (those earning $100,000 or more per year) in 2006.
• Milford Town Centre Area had a far lower proportion of households than obtain their income
through ‘Wages, salary etc’ (50.1%) than North Shore City or Auckland.
• As would be expected from the age profile in Milford Town Centre Area, a high proportion of
households obtain their income from NZ and Other Superannuation and Pensions (40.6%).
There were also a high proportion of households who obtain some of their income from
‘Interest, Dividends etc’ (49.5%).
• Current educational outcomes, level of personal security, wider job and business
opportunities, health and governance point to a high level of community well-being
experienced in the study area.
• As outlined in Section 4, Milford Town Centre Area has had a moderately stable population
with a comparatively high proportion of residents having lived at their place of usual
residence for ten years or more.
• Crime and safety do not appear to be significant issues in Milford (Quality of Life Survey,
2006).
• Given the relative wealth of the area and the good environment of its surrounds, the health
of the current population in the Milford area is likely to be high.
Housing
• Detached dwellings dominate within the Milford town centre area. However, in the wider
Lake Pupuke Area Unit area there was a higher incidence of ‘Two or more Flats, Townhouses,
Apartments, houses Joined’ when compared to North Shore City TLA and Auckland Region.
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• Dwelling tenure was dominated by full or partial home ownership and dwellings in the
ownership of Family Trusts in 2006. A considerable number of households have been within
the area for over 10 years.
• There has been a considerable increase in housing costs in both the Milford/Takapuna area
and the Auckland Region over the last 15 years. Incomes in the Milford area are generally
higher than NSCC and Auckland average, indicating capacity for local residents to pay for
housing.
Employment and Economy
• The Milford Town Centre Area was characterised by low (and declining) unemployment and
increasing employment (both full- and part-time).
• In 2006, the centre had strong employment in the Retail Trade, followed by the Property and
Business Services. People working in the centre were predominantly employed as ‘Sales
Workers’, with a smaller number of Professionals and Managers.
• Residents of Milford were predominantly employed in the Property and Business Sector and
were predominantly employed in Managerial and professional occupations.
• Demand for retail and commercial tenancies in the mainstreet area of Milford Town Centre is
extremely strong and characterised by long term (5-6yr) leases.
Development Infrastructure, Community Facilities and Services
• The site is located in close proximity to road infrastructure23.
• Water and sewerage infrastructure in the Milford Catchment appears to be adequate for
current populations but are likely to require upgrades to host more intense uses. Council
indicate that adequate infrastructure is a requirement of approval for the proposed plan
change.
• Community facilities and services, while not expansive, are likely to be able to cater for
intensification, although some augmentation of facilities for the ageing population, offices
and community meeting spaces might be required.
• The site is well located in terms of proximity and access to public open space.
Transport and Access
• Travel by car (either driver of a private or company vehicle or as a passenger) was by far the
most popular form of transport for all areas. For Milford Town Centre Area, a higher
proportion of residents travelled to work by public bus, walked or jogged or worked from
home than NSCC area or Auckland region.
• The centre is currently well serviced by Bus and Taxis.
• The Milford Town Centre is relatively flat, making the Centre easy to access for local
pedestrians.
23 The adequacy of which is being assessed by a separate report.
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5 Potential Impacts
This section identifies and summarises the range of positive and negative social impacts that could
potentially be experienced by community members either within the area immediately surrounding
the site and/or by community members from a wider geographic area. The information provided is
based on the findings of baseline data analysis, stakeholder consultation and research into the costs
and benefits of intensification undertaken for this study.
The potential impacts and risks identified in this chapter relate to the key areas identified within the
baseline research and include:
• Likely impacts on demand and supply of housing;
• Likely impacts on economic vitality and centre vibrancy;
• Likely impacts on infrastructure;
• Likely impacts on amenity of the surrounding environment;
• Likely impacts on community wellbeing;
• Likely impacts associated with increased walking and cycling;
• Likely impacts on crime and safety;
• Likely impacts on the availability and capacity of community services, programs and
facilities.
5.1 The Demand and Supply of Housing
One of the potential key social impacts associated with the proposed development relates to
housing, including positive impacts such as the proposed development providing an opportunity for
increased residential intensification at Milford Town Centre, as well as the development’s potential to
provide for greater diversity in housing types. Risks associated with these positives are also
discussed.
Potential negative impacts and associated risks are also identified. These relate to the potential for
poor integration with neighbouring development, possible visual impacts and the risk of reverse
sensitivity occurring. Potential impacts on housing affordability are also identified. Results of the
assessment of key risks associated with these potential positive and negative impacts are also
discussed.
5.1.1 Opportunity for Increased Residential Intensification at Milford Town Centre
Achieving Regional Aims
As noted previously, North Shore City Council’s Population Projections specific to the Milford Town
Centre Area indicate that the population living within the centre and the residential area immediately
surrounding the Business 2 zone is projected to increase by 530 people between 2006 and 2021 and
346 dwellings within this timeframe. However it is unclear how, in the current constrained zoning
environment at the Town Centre these policy objectives along with the projected population and
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dwelling growth is to occur without the MSC site being allowed to intensify via changes to the District
Plan as proposed.
The concept explored for the MSC, as noted at the outset, is a desired yield of approximately 250
apartments by way of higher density buildings. It is anticipated that the proposed intensification
could be completed in 2010 and is likely to result in an approximate population increase of 450
people at the site (this equates to 72% of expected population growth in the town centre area).
As a large lot in single ownership, the development at MSC would provide a significant opportunity
for increased residential intensification to occur and contribute significantly to the achievement of
long term policy objectives, population and dwelling growth. Thus, the proposed development offers
a good opportunity for increased residential intensification to occur within an existing town centre,
particularly considering that:
• The increase in population associated with the MSC will contribute substantially to
intensification in the area, and will occur in a centrally accessible area, close to public
transport, retail and commercial amenities.
• There has been a general reluctance by developers other than Milford Centre Limited to
intensify in suburban town centres in Auckland (pers. comm. ARC, June 2007).
• The MSC is a large lot in one ownership and the Milford Town Centre Area, zoned Business 2,
surrounding the site is generally characterised by small lots and dispersed property
ownership patterns. An increase in population size in other parts of the Town Centre, equal
to that expected as a result of the proposed development, will require substantial time and
effort given the fragmented land ownership at the centre.
That there will be little change to housing supply in the Milford Town Centre Area in the short-term is
a risk associated with the opportunity for increased residential intensification. As shown in Appendix
1, this is considered to be a medium level risk.
Integration and Design Considerations
It is noted that to achieve benefits associated with intensification, design considerations, visual
impacts and integration with the broader area will need to be considered. Information provided by
Milford Limited indicates their consultants have given due thought to these issues in assessing
options for development. Further information is provided in other consultant reports that accompany
this plan change application. The risk of this issue significantly negatively impacting the immediate
and surrounding areas is therefore considered low (refer Appendix 1).
A further risk associated with the proposed development if it were to proceed relates to the issue of
reverse sensitivity. The North Shore District Plan 2002 emphasises the need to ensure the growth of
employment and economic activities in areas where residential development within business zoned
areas is to occur “by ensuring that residential development in business areas is designed to avoid,
remedy or mitigate adverse effects on residential amenity from business activities24. This is also
supported in the North Shore City Council Economic Development Strategy, 2006.
Reverse sensitivity is a potential risk for existing businesses in the centre. The construction of
residential development (a more sensitive land use) nearby may result in complaints by new
24 NSCC District Plan 15.3
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residents relating to noise, amenity or traffic associated with the original business use at the centre.
The extent to which reverse sensitivity is an issue is related to building quality as well as the
expectations of residents in centres and nature of surrounding commercial land use. Current noise
levels at the site are generally minor and are associated with traffic movements as well as retail
activity. Information provided by Milford Centre Limited indicates that due thought has been given
to this issue and it is addressed through the design of the development. Further information is
provided in a separate report. Risks associated with reverse sensitivity at the site are therefore
considered to be low (refer Appendix 1).
The North Shore District Plan 2002 also emphasises the need to ensure that residential development
is managed so as “not [to] significantly reduce the availability of land for business activities in the
City’s general business areas and in those higher amenity business areas outside of commercial
centres”. Again, this is supported in within the North Shore City Council Economic Development
Strategy, 2006. The potential for residential development at the centre to reduce the availability of
commercial / business land within the centre is a risk identified in relation to the proposed
development. However, this is not considered to be a significant risk as the current proposal does
not result in the reduction of commercial / retail floor space at the centre and the use of ‘airspace’
for housing contributes to minimising this potential risk.
Housing Affordability
As outlined in Section 3.2, one of the primary criticisms of the compact growth model is its tendency
to increase pressure on housing affordability as a result of constrained land supply. The risk of a
decline in housing affordability associated with residential intensification differs from a regional and
local perspective.
The risks associated with a decline in housing affordability at the local level are not clear, as there is
pressure on housing affordability generally, however, it is acknowledged that intensification has the
potential to lead to higher development costs (for example, land costs and the cost of constructing
underground and/or structured carparking). Conversely, however, apartments are generally more
affordable that detached dwellings on larger lots. Therefore, although the development is unlikely to
provide ‘affordable housing’ per se, general affordability for home purchasers may be assisted to
some degree with the MSC development through the increase in dwelling supply and contribution to
greater diversity in the type of dwellings available in the Milford area..
At a regional level, compact growth strategies may increase pressure on housing affordability,
although this is debatable given the additional costs associated with travel and infrastructure
provision to more dispersed areas. Addressing this issue at the wider regional level is outside the
scope of the proposed development. Risks associated with housing affordability are therefore
considered to be low.
5.1.2 Increase in the Diversity of Housing Types
As noted in Section 1.2 an inspection of the area immediately surrounding the site (June 2007)
showed that detached dwellings are the dominant dwelling types directly surrounding the Milford
Town Centre Area. The Auckland community has expressed a need for a mix of housing types for
different cultures, ages and incomes in areas that are accessible to public transport (Auckland
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Regional Growth Forum 2006). The development proposed by Milford Centre Limited has the
opportunity to increase the diversity of housing types within the Milford area.
A number of factors point to increased demand for smaller dwelling types in the Milford area.
Declining household size is a general trend across the Auckland region in line with the ageing of the
population and other social trends. The high median age of people residing Milford indicates an
ageing population (associated with a reduction in household size). Given the centre’s proximity to
the Hauraki Gulf coast and Auckland CBD, the Milford Town Centre is likely to remain an attractive
location for retirees and professionals, while data showing the breakdown of housing type by
household size indicates demand for attached dwellings (overall, smaller household types in Milford
are likely to live in attached dwellings). The proposed development aims to offer desirable
accommodation to meet demand for smaller dwelling types in the Milford area.
As outlined in Section 3.2, residential intensification in centres diversifies housing products, catering
for a wide demographic spectrum. The proposed development at the Milford Town Centre is likely to
add to the general availability of housing and provide for greater housing mix in the immediate
vicinity of the centre area by providing from smaller dwelling types (250 two bedroom apartments).
These can be attractive to a range of family types and particularly for older people, which has been
identified as a potential target market for the development (Pers. Comm. Bayleys Real Estate June
2007).
A risk associated with this opportunity for increased residential intensification to occur at Milford
Town Centre includes the possibility that smaller, high density housing types are not taken up by the
target market. Given the general demand in the area, this risk has been identified as low (refer
Appendix 1) but if it eventuated, may have wider implications for community wellbeing as discussed
later in this chapter.
5.2 Economic Vitality and Centre Vibrancy
Key positive social impacts associated with economic vitality and centre vibrancy include potential for
the proposed development to offer a stimulus for employment and business opportunities and to
provide a focal point for business and economic activity. A potential negative impact identified
through this assessment includes the possibility that improved amenity at the site does not extent to
the surround area of retail development. Key risks associated with these likely positive and negative
impacts are also discussed.
5.2.1 Stimulus for Employment and Business Opportunities
Milford is generally characterised by a population with high socio-economic status, as demonstrated
through the high proportion of very high income households, sources of income within the centre
area and low unemployment rate in the NSCC area. Overall, however, the quality and standard of
the town centre area currently is not seen to reflect the affluent area in which it is located. The best
known retailers operating from the MSC include The Warehouse, Woolworths and Whitcoulls.
As noted in Section 2.1 there are few vacancies in the town centre area and demand for retail and
commercial tenancies in the mainstreet area of Milford Town Centre is considered to be very strong.
However, the quality of tenants is reported to have declined significantly in recent years (pers.
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comm.. Barfoot and Thompson, June 2007). Employment in retail at the centre is strong, but
available retail currently generally consists of average quality, independent operations. Consultation
conducted for this study indicated that there is the general perception that the ‘top-end dollar’ is not
being catered for in Milford (pers. comm. MATCH Realty, June 2005).
North Shore City Council’s Projections specific to the Milford Town Centre Area25 indicate that
employment is estimated to increase in Milford Centre by 128 jobs between 2006 and 2021. This is
anticipated to be made up by employment in retail (+123 jobs) and non-retail jobs (+5 jobs) (NSCC
Land-Use Capacity and Allocation Model 2005). Although regional strategic and statutory planning
documents anticipate that employment will occur within the town centre it is unclear how an increase
in such development sufficient to spark an increase in the vitality of the centre will occur.
Residential development of the scale anticipated with the proposal is likely to make a substantial
difference in supporting future retail and hence strengthening and broadening the local economy and
promoting jobs growth in the centre. As outlined in Section 3.2, residential intensification
strengthens local economies and improves centre viability and vitality by providing a larger and more
diverse customer base, particularly for local retail businesses and a focal point for business and
economic activity. Retail, café/restaurants, finance and insurance, communication services, property
and business services, health, education and other similar sectors generally prefer to be located in or
close to town centres, with ready access to a customer base and good road and public transport
access.
In addition, the movement of new people into the area could further contribute to the vibrancy of the
centre. The new apartments would take advantage of coastal views and are likely to attract affluent
residents, thus providing the potential for an increase in retail demand for ‘better’ shops, cafes,
restaurants and services as the result of an increased in-centre residential population.
A risk associated with this opportunity for increased residential intensification to occur at Milford
Town Centre includes the possibility that new residents of the development do not patronise the local
centre. This risk is considered to be low considering that Stage 1 and Stage 2 of the project will
involve the refit and upgrade of the existing Milford Shopping Centre (as outlined in Section 2.2).
A potential negative impact and further risk includes the possibility that improved amenity at the site
does not extend to the surrounding area of retail development – ie, that the new development might
be ‘inward looking’ and poorly integrated with adjacent development. As discussed previously,
information provided by the client indicates that their consultants have given due thought to this
issue and further information is provided in a separate report. The likelihood of this risk occurring is
considered to be low.
As identified within Section 5.1.1 above, the risk associated with the potential for residential
development to downgrade the retail / commercial role of Milford town centre is considered to be
negligible given that the development will be adding to rather than detracting from the lower levels
of retail floor space. That is, residential development will only occur above the ground level.
25 Including the Milford Business 2 Zone and the immediate residential area surrounding the Business 2 zone as shown in Figure 9.
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5.3 Impacts on Infrastructure
Key positive social impacts associated with the proposed development include the potential to
contribute to the sustainability of future public transport networks. Potential negative impacts
include short-term and longer-term traffic impacts. Potential impacts on wastewater and water
supply infrastructure are also discussed. Key risks associated with these impacts are discussed
following.
5.3.1 Potential to Contribute to the Sustainability of Future Public Transport Networks
The Milford Town Centre is relatively flat, making the Centre easy to access for local pedestrians. In
2006, Milford Town Centre Area had a higher proportion of residents who travelled to work by public
bus, walked or jogged, compared with NSCC and the Auckland region. (The Milford Town Centre is
relatively flat, making the Centre easy to access for local pedestrians). The centre is also well
serviced by Buses.
As recognised within the Auckland Regional Growth Strategy, centres are important nodes
connecting the Regional Land Transport Strategy framework which identifies the planned and future
potential rapid transport network. Transport improvements proposed by the Auckland Regional
Transport Authority are likely to result in further improvements to the public transport network
surrounding the site if plans are implemented. This improvement would be a positive contributor to
the current development proposed by providing transport for new residents and reducing the
likelihood of car dependency (however the extent to which this occurs is dependent on the timing of
improvements to public transport infrastructure).
The proposed development provides an opportunity for contribution to the sustainability of future
transport networks by contributing to increased patronage, optimising the use of services and
infrastructure and reducing car dependency. As discussed in Section 3.2, several studies show that
higher density, contiguous urban development as opposed to fragmented, low density development
(so called ‘sprawl’) generates fewer vehicle kilometres of travel and saves on transport infrastructure
costs because of improved opportunities to utilise standing capacity (SGS Economics and Planning
2007). The intensification of centres helps to reinforce ‘origin’ and ‘destination’ nodes across the
metropolitan public transport network. A balance between origin and destination nodes optimises
movement, ensures greater patronage, and allows a viable and sustainable public transport system
to evolve.
A risk associated with this opportunity includes the potential that take-up of public transport does
not occur. This has been assessed as a ‘medium’ level risk as reduced car dependency is dependent
on the early introduction of sufficient and effective public transport infrastructure.
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5.3.2 Traffic Impacts
The Milford Town Centre Area is located near the intersection of four major roads (Kitchener Rd,
Shakespeare Rd, Omana Rd and East Coast Road). The Milford Town Centre Area is easily accessible
to Auckland and Albany via the Northern Motorway.
Given the expected increase in population associated with the development if it was to proceed, a
number of short-term impacts on traffic are acknowledged. This includes increases in traffic volume
expected during the construction period as well as ongoing increases in traffic. Longer term, traffic
volumes in the local area will increase as a result of the proposed development. This is considered
to be a ‘medium’ level risk, mainly derived from increased vehicle movements by residents at the
site. Traffic impacts are to be investigated in a separate study. The level of impact associated with
this issue is dependent on the implementation of mitigation measures recommended in this study.
5.3.3 Waste Water and Water Supply Infrastructure
As noted in Section 4.6, waste water and water supply infrastructure for Milford Town Centre Area is
adequate for current populations but is likely to need to be updated to accommodate future
population growth (Pers. Comm. NSCC, August 2007). NSCC intends to review infrastructure
capacity within the next 15 months. The proposed development will place increased demand on
infrastructure, with the potential risk that the infrastructure will reach capacity. This is likely to
coincide well with assessment of the proposed development as the upgrade of this infrastructure
would be a necessary condition of approval of the proposed development, so there is little risk of a
shortfall in the provision of this infrastructure.
It is noted that this infrastructure is likely to need to be upgraded regardless of whether the
proposed development goes ahead (if the intent for proposed intensification at the town centre is to
be achieved as outlined within the District Plan).
5.4 Potential Impacts on the Amenity of the Surrounding Environment
The preservation of the character and amenity of the surrounding environment is a key positive
social impact identified in relation to the amenity of the surrounding environment. Possible visual
and overshadowing impacts and potential short-term and long-term noise and other amenity impacts
are likely negative impacts identified through this assessment. Risks associated with these impacts
are discussed following but it is noted that a separate commission deals with visual assessment and
shadowing effects.
5.4.1 Preservation of the Character and Amenity of the Surrounding Environment
A site visit conducted for this study (June 2007) showed that the Business 2 zone at Milford Town
Centre is surrounded by low density suburban residential development of good amenity. Housing is
generally detached in the immediate vicinity of the site and there are a limited number of medium
density residential developments.
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In line with District Plan and Regional planning objectives, the proposed development will contribute
to concentrated residential development in the town centre area, thus reducing the need to increase
residential density in nearby suburban localities and adjacent residential areas to cater for future
population growth. This provides the opportunity to preserve the character of these suburban areas.
At a regional level, as outlined in Section 3.2, environmentally, more compact cities make more
efficient use of urban land and leave non-urban land on the fringe of regions to be maintained for
other uses, be they agriculture, horticulture, protection and management of areas of environmental,
cultural or heritage significance. It also assists in protecting rural landscapes and production areas
from urban encroachment.
A risk associated with this opportunity for increased residential intensification to occur at Milford
Town Centre includes possible visual and overshadowing impacts associated with the proposed
development. Residents directly opposite the site (Milford Road and Ihumata Road frontages) and
residents to the west of Wairau Creek directly overlooking the site are also likely to experience some
visual impacts.
A further risk associated with this opportunity for increased residential intensification to occur at
Milford Town Centre includes the possibility that the visual appearance of the proposed development
has potential to detract from the amenity of the locality if poor quality design and poor integration of
the proposed development with the surrounding area was to occur.
Visual impacts may be positive or negative depending on the design of the proposed development as
well as community perceptions and acceptance of the development. It is acknowledged however,
that the development is likely to be visible on the skyline from distant locations and that
overshadowing is a further amenity issue to be considered with the proposal. A detailed Visual
Impact Assessment is being undertaken separately and will report on this in further detail. The risks
associated with the visual impact of the proposed development are considered to be low if the
mitigation strategies recommended in the Visual Impact Assessment are implemented effectively.
5.4.2 Potential Noise Impacts
As noted in section 2.1, noise levels at the site are currently associated with traffic as well as retail
activity. The development has potential to create increased noise levels in the short-term during
construction. This is likely to impact on residents and visitors to the site and surrounding area. In
the longer term, an increase in people residing at and travelling to the site is likely to contribute to a
general increase in ambient noise levels at the site and in the centre.
A risk associated with these impacts, which has been assessed as low include community complaints
associated with noise. Short-term impact of reduced patronage of retail establishments due to
residential construction is another risk identified. It is noted that noise impacts and mitigation
strategies are being investigated in a separate study. The level of impact associated with this issue
is largely dependent on the successful implementation of the mitigation strategies recommended in
the noise impacts report.
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5.5 Impacts on Community Wellbeing
A number of positive social impacts associated with the proposed development relating to impacts on
community wellbeing have been identified, including the potential for the development to act as a
stimulus for overall benefits to the community, positive impacts on community health associated
with increased walking and cycling, and improved crime and safety. Impacts are also associated
with the availability and capacity of community services and facilities. Potential negative impacts on
community wellbeing identified through this study include impacts on community wellbeing
associated with change and uncertainty. Community stability and cohesion may be affected by a
new population moving into the area. Risks associated with these impacts are discussed following.
5.5.1 A Stimulus for Overall Benefits to the Community
Baseline analysis conducted for this study (including community health, levels of educational
attainment, crime and safety and stability of the current population) indicated a likely high level of
community wellbeing currently in the Milford Town Centre.
The development is likely to create a stimulus for overall benefits to the community to the extent
that, (as identified in Section 3.2), an increase in population will create an increase in employment
and business opportunities, and help to stimulate and diversify the local economy, growth will have
the effect of providing the opportunity to improve community well-being in the Milford centre and
surrounding area, as discussed above. A strong and vibrant centre also provides a focus to an area,
providing a sense of identity to residents.
As identified in Section 3.2, socially, co-location also allows for increased equitable access,
particularly by public transport, to a high proportion of residents which might otherwise need to rely
on private transport to engage in daily activities.
A number of impacts on community wellbeing might potentially be associated with change and
uncertainty as a result of the proposed development. As outlined in Section 4, Milford Town Centre
Area has a moderately stable population with a comparatively high proportion of residents having
lived at their place of usual residence for ten years or more. Community stability and cohesion may
be affected with a new population moving into the area. However this potential risk is considered to
be low considering that homeowners, rather than investors are identified as the likely purchasers of
the properties due to the likely price point at which the homes would enter the market and the fact
that the future population at the site is likely to come from the North Shore area and possibly the
immediate vicinity of the site if people who currently reside in single detached dwelling in the
neighbourhood chose to move to ‘apartment living’ at the proposed development (pers. comm.
Bayley’s Real Estate, June 2007).
As outlined in Section 3.2 of this report, in the Auckland context, there is evidence of an appreciation
within the community of the important positive impacts intensification can have. This presents a
potential ‘medium’ risk if community concern about the quality of design of the proposed
development and resistance to change is not properly managed and community concern about
intensification may lead to a decline in community wellbeing if left unchecked.
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5.5.2 Impacts Associated with Increased Walking and Cycling
The centre is currently well serviced by buses and is relatively flat, making the MSC site easy to
access for local pedestrians. Urban intensification accounts for substantial health benefits (Section
3.2). Intensification at the Milford Town Centre therefore has the potential to provide more
opportunities for increased walking (and cycling), less motor vehicle use and a healthier population
overall (Graham 2005). It is not considered that car parking provided as part of the proposed
development (1.5 carspaces per dwelling) will erode the potential for these health benefits to occur.
However, disruption to pedestrian access to the site is considered to be a ‘medium’ level risk in the
short-term due to construction. A ‘Construction Management Plan’ will be developed following
approval of the proposed development to assist with the mitigation of this potential risk.
5.5.3 Impacts on Crime and Safety
Crime and safety does not appear to be a significant issue in Milford (Quality of Life Survey, 2006).
The proposed intensification of the MSC site is likely to provide for positive benefits in terms of crime
and safety. More residents living in the town centre may equate with more people on the streets,
which could improve passive surveillance.
Crime and safety benefits associated with improve passive surveillance is unlikely to occur if the
proposed development not well integrated into the Milford Town Centre Area, or adequate lighting in
public areas surrounding the development is not provided.
In the short-term there is increased potential for impacts on the safety of current residents and
visitors may be associated with increased vehicle movement at the site and construction activity
during the construction period.
5.5.4 Impacts on the Availability and Capacity of Community Services, Programs and Facilities
As outlined in section 4.8, there are some, but not many, community facilities in Milford Town Centre
Area. There is likely to be a requirement for marginal augmentation to existing facilities
(particularly facilities for seniors) if intensification occurs.
As recognised within the Auckland Regional Growth Strategy, intensification in centres provides an
important focal point community services as well as being community meeting places and an
increase in population density allows for the multiple use of facilities and the co-location of activities
A key risk associated with the proposed development is that an increase in demand for community
services results in reduced access to community services, programs and facilities available to the
wider community and that future programs are not tailored to changed community make-up.
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5.6 Summary of Impacts
The preceding discussion has outlined the potential positive and negative impacts likely to be
associated with the development of the MSC site. In addition, risks have been identified and
assessed.
Positive impacts of the proposed development include:
• Providing a good opportunity for increased residential intensification at Milford
Town Centre. A large lot in single ownership, the proposed redevelopment of the Milford
Shopping Centre site would contribute substantially to intensification in the area, and will
occur in a centrally accessible area, close to public transport, retail and commercial
amenities.
• Presenting a key opportunity to widen the diversity of housing types available to
local and other residents. Residential intensification in centres diversifies housing
products, catering for a wide demographic spectrum. The proposed development at the
Milford Town Centre will add to the supply of housing and to greater diversity in the type of
dwellings available in the Milford area.
• Providing a stimulus for employment and business opportunities and revitalise the
town centre. Residential intensification at centres strengthens local economies and
improves centre viability and vitality by providing a larger and more diverse customer base,
particularly for local retail businesses and a focal point for business and economic activity.
The movement of new people into the area could further contribute to the vibrancy of the
centre.
• Contributing to the sustainability of future public transport networks. The proposed
development provides an opportunity for contribution to the sustainability of future transport
networks by contributing to increased patronage, optimising the use of services and
infrastructure and reducing car dependency.
• Contributing to the preservation of the character and amenity of the surrounding
environment. The proposed development will contribute to concentrated residential
development in the town centre area, thus reducing the need to increase residential density
in nearby suburban localities and preserving the existing character and amenity of the
surrounding environment.
• Providing a stimulus for overall benefits to community wellbeing. The development
is likely to create a stimulus of overall benefits to the community to the extent that an
increase in population will create an increase in employment and business opportunities, and
help to stimulate and diversity the local economy. A strong and vibrant centre also provides
a focus to an area providing a sense of identity to residents
• Providing positive benefits associated with walking and cycling. The Milford centre is
currently well serviced by public transport making the site proposed for redevelopment easily
accessible. Urban intensification can account for substantial health benefits in well serviced
centres by providing more opportunities for increased walking (and cycling), less motor
vehicle use and a healthier population overall.
• Providing positive benefits for crime and safety. More residents living in the town
centre may equate with more people on the surrounding streets, thus improving passive
surveillance.
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However, if not appropriately mitigated, the proposed development has potential to result in a
number of risks. The key risks identified, the overall risk rating, suggested mitigation strategies and
responsibility for implementation of these mitigation strategies are summarised in Appendix 126. Key
potential risks identified in this chapter include:
• Little change to housing supply in the short term;
• Poor integration with neighbouring development, possible visual impacts, overshadowing and
the risk of reverse sensitivity occurring;
• Impacts on housing affordability at a local and regional scale; and
• New residents of the development do not patronise the local centre;
• Potential for residential development to downgrade the retail / commercial role of Milford
town centre.
• The potential that take-up of public transport does not occur;
• Amenity at the site is compromised as a result of short-term (during construction) or longer-
term traffic and noise impacts;
• Community stability and cohesion may be affected with a new population moving into the
area;
• Short-term impacts on pedestrian access and safety during the period of construction;
• Improved passive surveillance does not occur due to poor design and/or inadequate lighting
in public areas surrounding the development;
• Marginally impact on the availability and capacity of community services, programs and
facilities.
It is important to note that all these risks have been assessed as low to medium (refer Appendix 1).
Nonetheless, mitigation strategies for the identified risks have been suggested in the next section to
ensure that, if approved, the positive benefits associated with the development are maximised.
In summary, therefore, this analysis shows that there are a number of key positive impacts
associated with the development and that there are a small number of potential negative impacts. It
is SGS’s professional judgement that the negative impacts assessed in this report could be mitigated
against. It is therefore considered that the potential benefits associated with the proposed
development outweigh possible negative impacts.
26 It is noted that the assessment of effects relating to visual impacts, traffic impacts and overshadowing are to be investigated in separate studies. Identified risks relating to any associated impacts will need to be mitigated in accordance with the recommendations of these studies.
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6 Potential Mitigation Strategies
This section restates the risks identified in the previous section and notes potential mitigation
strategies to lessen or completely erode the risk identified. As noted in the preceding section, all the
risks identified have been assessed as being low to medium.
Mitigation strategies are presented in this section with regard to:
• Demand and Supply of Housing;
• Economic Vitality and Centre Vibrancy;
• Impacts on Infrastructure;
• Potential Impacts on the Amenity of the Surrounding Environment; and
• Impacts on Community Wellbeing.
The mitigation strategies suggested (refer Appendix 1) are the responsibility of Milford Centre
Limited, North Shore City Council, Auckland Regional Council or Auckland Regional Transport
Authority. These measures are not considered to be complex or expensive and the following points
are considered to contribute to the reduced likelihood of the identified risks occurring:
• Information provided by Milford Centre Limited indicates that their consultants have carefully
assessed the potential effects of the proposal and that the site context has been taken into
account in developing the plan change;
• Community participation through public submission will occur as part of the plan change
process;
• Potential impacts of the proposed development (including impacts relating to design, noise,
traffic and visual impacts and infrastructure capacity) will be assessed by North Shore City
Council through the plan change process.
Demand and Supply of Housing
The risks associated with the demand and supply of housing include:
• That there is likely to be little change to housing supply in the short term;
• The possibility of poor integration with neighbouring development, possible visual impacts
and the risk of reverse sensitivity occurring;
• Potential impacts on housing affordability at a local and regional scale; and
• Potential for residential development to downgrade the retail / commercial role of Milford
town centre
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Possible mitigation strategies to mitigate these risks include (refer Appendix 1):
Potential Risk Overall Risk
Rating
Mitigation Strategy Responsibility
Little change to housing
supply in the short term
Medium • Attention could be given to reducing
this risk from occurring by reducing
the time taken to advance the plan
change application, provide for
infrastructure requirements and
reduce delays during construction.
NSCC, Milford Centre
Limited
Potential for poor
integration with
neighbouring
development, possible
visual impacts and the risk
of reverse sensitivity
occurring
Low • Ensuring appropriate design
standards for new development and
consideration of these issues by
NSCC during the assessment
process.
• Education material could be
provided to new residents to reduce
the likelihood of reverse sensitivity
occurring.
NSCC, Milford Centre
Limited
Decline in housing
affordability at a local or
regional level.
Low • Research into housing affordability
issues could be undertaken to better
understand impacts on housing
affordability associated with
intensification in the Auckland
context.
NSCC, Auckland
Regional Council
Potential for residential
development to
downgrade the retail /
commercial role of Milford
town centre.
Low • Land consumption by retail /
commercial and residential
development could be monitored to
understand (and address if
necessary) this potential impact.
NSCC
High density housing types
are not taken up by the
target market.
Low • Research should be conducted to
determine the likely target market
for the development.
• Marketing of the new development
should be directed towards the
desired target market.
Milford Centre Limited
Economic Vitality and Centre Vibrancy
The risks associated with economic vitality and centre vibrancy include:
• Potential that new residents of the development do not patronise the local centre;
• Potential for poor integration with neighbouring development, possible overshadowing and
visual impacts, the risk of reverse sensitivity occurring; and
• Potential for residential development to downgrade the retail / commercial role of Milford
town centre.
Possible mitigation strategies to mitigate these risks include (refer Appendix 1):
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Potential Risk Overall Risk
Rating
Mitigation Strategy Responsibility
New residents of the
development do not patronise
the local centre
Low • Support could be provided
for activities to promote
local businesses.
• Support for the development
of a Milford Business
Association could also be
provided.
NSCC
Potential for poor integration
with neighbouring
development, possible
overshadowing and visual
impacts, the risk of reverse
sensitivity occurring.
Low • Ensuring appropriate design
standards for new
development and
consideration of these issues
by NSCC during the
assessment process.
• Education material could be
provided to new residents to
reduce the likelihood of
reverse sensitivity occurring.
• Consideration should be
given to the willingness of
the developer to contribute
to a main street upgrade.
NSCC, Milford Centre
Limited
Potential for residential
development to downgrade
the retail / commercial role of
Milford town centre.
Low • Monitoring of land
consumption by retail /
commercial and residential
development.
NSCC
Impacts on Infrastructure
The risks associated with impacts on infrastructure include:
• The potential that take-up of public transport does not occur;
• Amenity at the site is compromised as a result of short-term (during construction) or longer-
term traffic impacts;
• Wastewater and water supply infrastructure reaches capacity.
Possible mitigation strategies to mitigate these risks include (refer Appendix 1):
Potential Risk Overall Risk
Rating
Mitigation Strategy Responsibility
Potential that take-up of public
transport does not occur.
Medium • Monitoring of public
transport patronage and
services.
• Education and promotion of
the use of public transport
for new residents.
NSCC, Auckland
Regional Transport
Authority
Amenity at the site is
compromised as a result of
Medium • Traffic impacts are to be
investigated in a separate
Milford Centre
Limited
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Potential Risk Overall Risk
Rating
Mitigation Strategy Responsibility
short-term (during
construction) or longer-term
traffic impacts.
study. Recommended
mitigation measures to be
implemented.
Wastewater and water supply
infrastructure reaches capacity
Low • An improvement to existing
infrastructure will likely be
required following approval
of the plan change so there
is no likelihood of this risk
occurring or need for
mitigation measures.
NSCC
Potential Impacts on the Amenity of the Surrounding Environment
The risks associated with impacts on the amenity of the surrounding environment include:
• Potential for visual impacts and overshadowing; and
• Possibility of short and longer-term noise impacts on residents and visitors to the site and
surrounding retail / commercial and residential areas.
Possible mitigation strategies to mitigate these risks include (refer Appendix 1):
Potential Risk Overall Risk
Rating
Mitigation Strategy Responsibility
Visual Impacts and
Overshadowing
Low • Visual impacts and
overshadowing are to be
investigated in separate
studies. Recommended
mitigation measures to be
incorporated into the design
of the new development.
Milford Centre
Limited
Short and longer-term noise
impacts on residents and
visitors to the site and
surrounding retail / commercial
and residential areas.
Low • Noise impacts are to be
investigated in a separate
study. Recommended
mitigation measures to be
implemented.
Milford Centre
Limited
Impacts on Community Wellbeing
The risks associated with impacts on community wellbeing include:
• Community stability and cohesion may be affected with a new population moving into the
area;
• Short-term impacts on pedestrian access to the site during the period of construction;
• Improved passive surveillance does not occur due to poor design and/or inadequate lighting
in public areas surrounding the development;
• Impacts on the safety of current residents and visitors may be associated with construction
activity in the short-term and increased vehicle movement at the site in the longer-term;
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• Impacts on the safety of current residents and visitors may be associated with construction
activity in the short-term and increased vehicle movement at the site in the longer-term;
and
• Reduced access to community services, programs and facilities available to the wider
community, and risk that future programs are not tailored to changed community make-up.
Possible mitigation strategies to mitigate these risks include (refer Appendix 1):
Potential Risk Overall Risk
Rating
Mitigation Strategy Responsibility
Community stability and
cohesion may be affected with a
new population moving into the
area.
Low • Community consultation and
education will assist with
reducing the likelihood of this
risk occurring.
• “Welcome packs” could be
distributed to new residents
to assist new residents at the
site ‘settle in’.
Milford Centre
Limited
Short-term impacts on
pedestrian access to the site
during the period of
construction.
Medium • A Construction Management
Plan should be developed.
Recommended mitigation
measures to be implemented.
NSCC, Milford Centre
Limited
Improved passive surveillance
does not occur due to poor
design and/or inadequate
lighting in public areas
surrounding the development.
Medium • Client to ensure that the
design of the proposed
development is well
integrated into the local area
and that adequate lighting is
provided.
Milford Centre
Limited
Impacts on the safety of current
residents and visitors may be
associated with construction
activity in the short-term and
increased vehicle movement at
the site in the longer-term.
Low • Traffic impacts are to be
investigated in a separate
study.
• A Construction Management
Plan should be developed.
Milford Centre
Limited
Reduced access to community
services, programs and facilities
available to the wider
community, and risk that future
programs are not tailored to
changed community make-up.
Medium • Audit and detailed study of
the future capacity of
community services,
programs and facilities by
NSCC.
NSCC
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7 Conclusion
In June 2007, SGS Economics and Planning (SGS) was commissioned by Milford Centre Limited via
SKM to undertake a Social Impact Assessment (SIA) in relation to the proposal to seek a change to
the North Shore District Plan to enhance the opportunity for high density residential development on
the site owned by Milford Centre Limited at Milford Town Centre.
The purpose of the SIA was to independently assess the likely positive and negative social
consequences associated with intensification of the Milford Centre area such that an objective
assessment of the extent of the risks associated with potential impacts was known. Where
necessary, mitigation strategies to remove or lessen negative impacts on affected individuals and
populations were required.
A robust, five stage methodology was used for this Social Impact Assessment by SGS. This included
a mix of data analysis, consultation, literature reviews and assessment based on previous
experience.
There are many positive impacts associated with the proposed development, including potential to:
• Be a good opportunity for increased residential intensification at Milford Town Centre;
• Present a key opportunity to widen the diversity of housing types available to local and other
residents;
• Provide a stimulus for employment and business opportunities;
• Contribute to the sustainability of future public transport networks;
• Contribute to the preservation of the character and amenity of the surrounding environment;
• Provide a stimulus for overall benefits to community wellbeing;
• Provide positive benefits associated with walking and cycling;
• Provide positive benefits for crime and safety.
However, if not appropriately mitigated, the proposed development has potential to result in a
number of negative impacts. It is important to note that all these risks have been assessed as low
to medium (refer Appendix 1). Nonetheless, mitigation strategies for the identified risks have been
suggested to ensure that, if approved, the positive benefits associated with the development are
maximised.
It is SGS’s professional judgement that the negative impacts assessed in this report27 could be
mitigated against. It is therefore considered that the potential benefits associated with the proposed
development outweigh possible negative impacts. It is noted that the assessment of impacts
relating to visual impacts, traffic impacts and overshadowing are being investigated in separate
studies. As discussed in the body of the report, the level of risk relating to any associated impacts
will need to be mitigated in accordance with the recommendations of the other studies being
conducted.
27 It is noted that the assessment of effects relating to visual impacts, traffic impacts and overshadowing are to be investigated in separate studies. Identified risks relating to any associated impacts will need to be mitigated in accordance with the recommendations of these studies.
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Overall, the proposed development is considered to offer a good opportunity for increased residential
intensification to occur within an existing town centre and contribute significantly to the achievement
of long term policy objectives, population and dwelling growth. The development is also likely to add
to the viability of the centre, and is likely to provide a key stimulus to urban renewal.
Following SGS’s comprehensive assessment of potential impacts, the analysis shows that
the number of key positive impacts associated with the development outweigh the
potential negative impacts. In our professional judgement, the negative impacts could be
mitigated through other actions.
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8 References
Auckland Regional Council (2001) Regional Growth Strategy – Northern and Western Sectors
Agreement
Auckland Regional Growth Forum (1999) Auckland Regional Growth Strategy 2050, Auckland
Regional Council
Auckland Regional Growth Forum (2007) Growing Smarter: An evaluation of the Auckland Regional
Growth Strategy 1999, accessed at www.arc.govt.nz on 9th July 2007
Auckland Regional Growth Forum (2006) Developer Survey: Intensification in Auckland, Final Draft
Report
Auckland Regional Growth Forum (2007) International Trends and Lessons in Growth Management,
Unpublished Report.
Auckland Regional Growth Forum (2006) Stocktake of Existing Consultation on Urban Intensification
in Auckland: Final Report, accessed at www.arc.govt.nz on 9th July 2007
Auckland Regional Transport Authority (2006) Auckland Passenger Transport Network Plan2006-
2016
Bunker, R., Holloway, D., Randolph, B. (2005) Separating Prospects from Propaganda in Urban
Consolidation, SOAC Conference, Griffith University, December 2005.
Aubury Cheng (MATCH), Pers. Correspondence, 26th June 2007
Fischel, W. (1997) Comment on Carl Abbott’s “The Portland Region: Where City and Suburbs Talk to
Each Other – And Often Agree”, Housing Policy Debate, Vol. 8(1), pp. 65-73
Chris Gemmell (Lachore’s Real Estate) Pers. Correspondence, 26th June 2007
David Jenkins (Barefoot and Thompson) Pers. Correspondence, 25th June 2007
Graham (2005) ‘Urban Sprawl and Land Use Planning: Implications for Public Health’, PQ, December
2005
Jack Gibb (Lachore’s Real Estate) Pers. Correspondence, 26th June 2007
Meyer, B. (2004) Centres Policy Report, Unpublished Report.
New Zealand Government Resource Management Act 1991, accessed at
http://www.legislation.govt.nz on 16th July 2007
North Shore City Council (2001) City Blueprint, NSCC
Milford Town Centre Intensification Social Impact Assessment / Final Report
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North Shore City Council (2006) Economic Development Strategy, NSCC
North Shore City Council (2006) Land use Capacity and Allocation Model: Dwelling and Population,
Unpublished Report
North Shore City Council (2002) District Plan
Paling, R., Williamson, J., Waite, D. (2007) Assessing Agglomeration Impacts in Auckland: Linkages
with Regional Strategies, Unpublished Report.
Russell Adams (Bayleys Real Estate), Pers. Correspondence, 25th June 2007
SGS Economics and Planning (2007) Economic Development Strategy: Spatial Issues, report
prepared for Auckland City.
Smye, C et al (2005) Social Implications of Housing Intensification in the Auckland Region: Analysis
and Review of Media Reports, Surveys and Literature, Unpublished Report
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Appendix 1 - Risk Impact Assessment
A risk impact assessment with potential mitigation strategies is shown in Table 7. As a practical
output of this Social Impact Assessment (SIA), potential risks and associated mitigation strategies
have been suggested (Table 7).
Scope of Risk Impact Assessment
Potential risks to residents as a result of the proposed Milford Town Centre intensification are
summarised in the following framework.
Risk Framework – Social Risk Areas and Specific Risks
• Demand and Supply of Housing
- An opportunity for increased residential intensification at Milford Town Centre;
- Increase in the diversity of housing types.
• Economic Vitality and Centre Vibrancy
- A stimulus for employment and business opportunities;
• Impacts on Infrastructure
- Potential to contribute to the sustainability of future transport networks;
- Traffic Impacts
- Impacts on Waste Water and Water Supply Infrastructure
• Potential Impacts on the Amenity of the Surrounding Environment
- Preservation of the character and amenity of the surrounding environment;
- Potential noise impacts
• Impacts on community wellbeing
- A stimulus for overall benefits to the community;
- Positive Impacts Associated with Increased Walking and Cycling
- Positive Impacts on crime and safety;
• Impacts on the availability and capacity of community services, programs and facilities.
Risk Impact Assessment
The following table shows the risk impact assessment conducted for this study. This assessment is
based on the baseline analysis shown in Section 4 of this report.
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Table 7. Risk Impact Assessment
Possible Impacts With
Development
Risks Likelihood of
Risk Occurring
Scale of
Impact
Overall Risk Rating (if
mitigation strategy is
implemented)
Mitigation Strategies Responsibility
Demand and Supply of
Housing
A good opportunity for
increased residential
intensification
Little change to housing supply in the
short term.
High Medium Medium • Attention could be given to reducing
this risk from occurring by reducing
the time taken to advance the plan
change application, provide for
infrastructure requirements and
reduce delays during construction.
NSCC, Milford
Centre Limited
Potential for poor integration with
neighbouring development, possible
overshadowing and visual impacts,
the risk of reverse sensitivity
occurring.
Medium Low Low • Ensuring appropriate design
standards for new development and
consideration of these issues by
NSCC during the assessment
process.
• Education material could be provided
to new residents to reduce the
likelihood of reverse sensitivity
occurring.
NSCC, Milford
Centre Limited
Decline in housing affordability at a
local or regional level.
Low Low Low • Research into housing affordability
issues could be undertaken to better
understand impacts on housing
affordability associated with
intensification in the Auckland
context.
NSCC, Auckland
Regional Council
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Possible Impacts With
Development
Risks Likelihood of
Risk Occurring
Scale of
Impact
Overall Risk Rating (if
mitigation strategy is
implemented)
Mitigation Strategies Responsibility
Increase in the diversity of
housing types
High density housing types are not
taken up by the target market.
Low Low Low • Research should be conducted to
determine the likely target market
for the development.
• Marketing of the new development
should be directed towards the
desired target market.
Milford Centre
Limited
Economic Vitality and
Centre Vibrancy
Stimulus for Employment
and Business Opportunity
New residents of the development do
not patronise the local centre
Low Low Low • Support could be provided for
activities to promote local
businesses.
• Support for the development of a
Milford Business Association could
also be provided.
NSCC
Potential for poor integration with
neighbouring development, possible
overshadowing and visual impacts,
the risk of reverse sensitivity
occurring.
Low High Low • Ensuring appropriate design
standards for new development and
consideration of these issues by
NSCC during the assessment
process.
• Education material could be provided
to new residents to reduce the
likelihood of reverse sensitivity
occurring.
• Consideration should be given to the
willingness of the developer to
contribute to a main street upgrade.
NSCC, Milford
Centre Limited
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Possible Impacts With
Development
Risks Likelihood of
Risk Occurring
Scale of
Impact
Overall Risk Rating (if
mitigation strategy is
implemented)
Mitigation Strategies Responsibility
Potential for residential development
to downgrade the retail / commercial
role of Milford town centre.
Low Low Low • Monitoring of land consumption by
retail / commercial and residential
development.
NSCC
Impacts on
Infrastructure
Potential to Contribute to
the Sustainability of Future
Public Transport Networks
Potential that take-up of public
transport does not occur.
Low High Medium • Monitoring of public transport
patronage and services.
• Education and promotion of the use
of public transport for new residents.
NSCC, Auckland
Regional
Transport
Authority
Traffic Impacts Amenity at the site is compromised as
a result of short-term (during
construction) or longer-term traffic
impacts.
Medium Low Medium • Traffic impacts are to be investigated
in a separate study. Recommended
mitigation measures to be
implemented.
Milford Centre
Limited
Wastewater and Water
Supply Infrastructure
Wastewater and water supply
infrastructure reaches capacity
Medium High Low • An improvement to existing
infrastructure will likely be required
following approval of the plan
change so there is no likelihood of
this risk occurring or need for
mitigation measures.
NSCC
Potential Impacts on the
Amenity of the
Surrounding
Environment
Preservation of the
Character and Amenity of
the Surrounding
Visual Impacts and Overshadowing High Medium Low • Visual impacts and overshadowing
are to be investigated in separate
studies. Recommended mitigation
Milford Centre
Limited
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Possible Impacts With
Development
Risks Likelihood of
Risk Occurring
Scale of
Impact
Overall Risk Rating (if
mitigation strategy is
implemented)
Mitigation Strategies Responsibility
Environment measures to be incorporated into the
design of the new development.
Potential Noise Impacts Short and longer-term noise impacts
on residents and visitors to the site
and surrounding retail / commercial
and residential areas.
High Low Low • Noise impacts are to be investigated
in a separate study. Recommended
mitigation measures to be
implemented.
Milford Centre
Limited
Impacts on Community
Wellbeing
A Stimulus for Overall
Benefits to the Community
Community stability and cohesion may
be affected with a new population
moving into the area.
Low Low Low • Community consultation and
education will assist with reducing
the likelihood of this risk occurring.
• “Welcome packs” could be
distributed to new residents to assist
new residents at the site ‘settle in’.
Milford Centre
Limited
Community concern about
intensification may lead to a decline in
community wellbeing.
Medium Medium Medium • Community consultation and
education will assist with reducing
the likelihood of this risk occurring.
Milford Centre
Limited
Positive Impacts Associated
with Increased Walking and
Cycling
Short-term impacts on pedestrian
access to the site during the period of
construction.
Medium Low Medium • A Construction Management Plan will
be developed. Recommended
mitigation measures to be
implemented.
NSCC, Milford
Centre Limited
Impacts on Crime and
Safety
Improved passive surveillance does
not occur due to poor design and/or
inadequate lighting in public areas
surrounding the development.
Low Medium Medium • Milford Centre Ltd to ensure that the
design of the proposed development
is well integrated into the local area
and that adequate lighting is
provided.
Milford Centre
Limited
Milford Town Centre Intensification Social Impact Assessment / Final Report
1706sia (Final Report_Milford_21 November2007_Compressed).doc P84
Possible Impacts With
Development
Risks Likelihood of
Risk Occurring
Scale of
Impact
Overall Risk Rating (if
mitigation strategy is
implemented)
Mitigation Strategies Responsibility
Impacts on the safety of current
residents and visitors may be
associated with construction activity in
the short-term and increased vehicle
movement at the site in the longer-
term.
Low Medium Low • Traffic impacts are to be investigated
in a separate study.
• A Construction Management Plan
should be developed.
Milford Centre
Limited
Impacts on the availability
and Capacity of Community
Services, Programs and
Facilities
Marginally impact on the availability
and capacity of community services,
programs and facilities available to the
wider community, and risk that future
programs are not tailored to changed
community make-up.
Medium Medium Medium • Audit and detailed study of the
future capacity of community
services, programs and facilities by
NSCC.
NSCC