Miljøbelastning med anthropogene stoffer

Eksempel „bly“, emissioner og deponering i Europa, 1958- 1995

Hans von Storch, Charlotte Hagner, Mariza Costa-Cabral

Institut für Küstenforschung, GKSS Forschungszentrum

Miljøbelastning med anthropogene stoffer

Eksempel „bly“, emissioner og deponering i Europa, 1958- 1995

Hans von Storch, Charlotte Hagner, Mariza Costa-Cabral

Institut für Küstenforschung, GKSS Forschungszentrum

Geofysisk Afdeling, Niels Bohr Institutet, København, 16. Oktober 2002

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Motivation1. Prototypical example of a reconstructing of flow

and deposition of anthropogenic matter on the regional scale (50 - 1000 km).

2. Lead is also chosen because of the highly variable emissions, with an unabated increase until about 1970 and several political regulations in the 1970s and 1980s, which ended with the out-phasing of lead in gasoline.

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Lead emission

Total gasoline sale

Consumption of gasoline in Germany (mio.litres) and associated lead emissions (tons)

Political regulation in 1971, 1975 and 1985.

General overview of lead pollution

Source: Umweltbundesamt 2001

Atmospheric Lead Concentration in German Urban and Rural Areas 1970-1989

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I f KData source: Umweltprobenbank, Research Center Karlsruhe, 1999

Lead concentration in annual beech leaves in German forest areas 1989-1997

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I f KData source: Pb – monitoring of the German Environmental Ministry (1998) and Landesamt Nordrhein –Westfalen(1998).

Atmospheric Lead Concentrations in German Conurbation and Rural Areas 1986 –1995

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I f KData source: Umweltprobenbank 1999b

Lead concentrations (g/g) in spruce (Picea abies) sprouts and poplar (Populus nigra) leaves in urban areas in Saarland, 1985-1996

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Lead concentration (mg/kg) in Blue Mussels (Mytilus Edulis)

in the North Sea, 1982-1997

Data source: Ministry of Ecology of Niedersachsen 1999

* Sample stations: Bantsbalje ( 53°34’/ 7°01’); Borkum ( 53°35.4’/ 6°47.84’); Cuxhaven Leitdamm ( 53°53.05’/ 8°41.03’); Elmshörn Rinne ( 53°29.05’/ 6°54.00’);

Mellumbalje ( 53°41.09’/ 8 °08.08’)

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I f K1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

0

40

80

120

g/l

lead in human bloodaccording to G and M data sets

G childrenG adultsM

European Gasoline Lead Content Regulations

Initial Regulations

Germany

– 1971, the ”German Environmental Programm” was passed

Increasing automobile emissions were considered to be a latent danger for humans, animals and plants

– 1972, legal max. lead content of gasoline: 0.4 g Pb/l

– 1976, legal max. lead content of gasoline: 0.15 g Pb/l

European Union

– 1978, the first EU-regulation of lead in gasoline was adopted:

– Gasoline with more than 0.4 g Pb/l was banned on EU-markets

Further Regulations

Germany

– 1984, unleaded gasoline was introduced on the German market, complemented by tax incentives

– Justified by widespread damage to forests due to NOx, CO and CxHy

– 1988, low-emission cars become obligatory

European Union

– 1989, obligation to offer super-unleaded gasoline in all member states

– lead in gasoline should be reduced to max. 0.15 g Pb/l Inst

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I f KData source: German Environmental Ministry ,1998

Annual Lead Emissions in Different EU–Nations 1980 –1996

Sources of lead emissions, 1955-1995

Costa-C

abral, 2001

Estimatedlead emissions(from Pacyna and Pacyna, 2000)

1955

19951955

1975

Atmospheric concentration

deposition

Calculated depositions

1995

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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

lead concentration in the airwaldhof obswaldhof simwesterland obswesterland sim

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model estimate

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Chemical / ecological dimension

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1960 1970 1980 1990

0

200

400

600

modelling lead concentrationin air using (5)

6 cell AElinearly interpolated LCannual series LC

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1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994

0

40

80

120

160

200

lea

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(g

/l)

Fit of (6/7) and test of (4)observed 95% -ileestimated 95%-ileobserved m eanestimated mean

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0 100 200

0

200

400

600

800

frequency distribution of LH B (g/l)

in adults in 1991/1992 in the M dats set

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1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0

100

200

300

400le

ad

co

nc

en

tra

tio

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(g

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means

90%-iles

95%-iles

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I f K1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

100

200

300

400

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g/l

lead concentrations in human bloodadults in Münster

scenario 1: m eansscenario 1: 90% ilesscenario 1: 95% ilesscenario 2: 90% ilesscenario 3: 90% iles

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Conclusions1. Past political and economic evolutions may be assessed

quantitatively by a retrospective analysis. Scenarios of environmental impact of possible future socio-economic developments are possible to be constructed.

2. Lead reduction in gasoline was successful in reducing the presence of lead in the atmosphere, in terrestrial ecosystems and in men.

3. In aquatic ecosystems the increase of concentrations has been halted at a level well above the natural level. (How long is the residence time in sediment?)

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Data source: Koopmann et al.1994

Lead Concentrations (g/kg) in Surface Sediments (0-10 cm depth) of the Wadden Sea

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I f KData source: Schwedhelm & Irion 1985

Lead Concentrations in a Marsh Sediment Core (≤2m)

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Lead Use in Gasoline in 1996

Country Western Europe

Lead Content in Gasoline (g/l)

Market Share of Leaded Gasoline (%)

Austria 0 0 (since 1993)

Belgium 0.013 26

Denmark 0 0

Finland 0 0

France 0.013 38

Germany 0.013 3

Greece 0.4 (0.15 in Athens) 67 (since 1995)

Iceland 0.013 15

Ireland 0.013 35

Italy 0.013 56

Luxembourg 0.013 18

Netherlands 0.013 14

Norway 0.013 2

Portugal 0.4 61

Spain 0.4 77

Sweden 0 0 (since 1994)

Switzerland 0.013 13

Turkey 0.4 82

United Kingdom 0.013 33

Country Central and Eastern Europe

Lead Content in Gasoline (g/l)

Market Share of Leaded Gasoline (%)

Bulgaria 0.15 95

Croatia 0.6 70

Czech Republic 0.15 45

Hungary 0.15 36

Moldova 0.4 100

Poland 0.15 30

Romania 0.6 94

Russian Federation 0.6 50

Slovak Republic 0 0 (since 1995)

Source: modified from World Bank 1997

Source: World Bank (1997), Heinzow et al. (1998)

Blood Lead Levels in Different Cities in 1980s and 1990s

US- scientists expect health dangers for children above a blood lead level of 100g/l.

German experts are convinced there can be health dangers above 150gPb/l.

blo

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g/l)

years of sampling