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Milwaukee Office Market2010 Year in Review
Appraisal Institute – Wisconsin ChapterNovember 11, 2010
2010 Office Market Overview
• Leasing Activity
• Net Absorption
• Vacancy & Availability
• Investment Activity
• Capitalization Rates
Office Market – Bright Spots in 2010
• No New Construction
• Class A Office
• Submarkets - Downtown & along I-94 Corridor
• Downtown Investment Activity
Leasing Activity – Milwaukee Office Market
Vacancy Trends – Milwaukee Office Market (Includes Milwaukee, Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington Counties)
3Qtr 2009 3Qtr 2010 3Qtr 2009 3Qtr 2010 3Qtr 09 3Qtr 10 Change
All Office 58,772,000 58,839,000 6,540,000 6,902,000 11.1% 11.7% 0.6%
Multi-Tenant 31,963,000 31,963,000 6,116,000 6,624,000 19.1% 20.7% 1.6%
Total Inventory Vacant Space Percent Vacant
MILWAUKEE OFFICE - VACANCY TRENDS(3rd Qtr 2009 vs 3rd Qtr 2010)
11.1%
19.1%
11.7%
20.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
All Office Multi-Tenant Office Only
3Qtr 09 3Qtr 10
Downtown vs. Suburban Office – 3Qtr 2010
Total SF Vacant SF Avail SF Vac % Avail %
Dtwn/3rd Ward 13,199,000 2,722,000 3,782,000 20.6% 28.7%Suburban 18,764,000 3,902,000 5,927,000 20.8% 31.6%
Totals 31,963,000 6,624,000 9,709,000 20.7% 30.4%
Supply Vacant/Available Percent
VACANCY & AVAILABILITY RATES(Downtown vs Suburban)
20.6% 20.8%
28.7%31.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Dtwn/3rd Ward Suburban
Vacancy Rate Availability Rate
Downtown Office By Class (A vs. B/C)As of Third Quarter 2010
Total SF Vacant SF Avail SF Vac % Avail %
Dtwn - Class A 5,039,000 806,000 1,041,000 16.0% 20.7%Dtwn - Class B/C 8,160,000 1,916,000 2,741,000 23.5% 33.6%
Total 13,199,000 2,722,000 3,782,000 20.6% 28.7%
Supply Vacant/Available Percent
DOWNTOWN VACANCY vs. AVAILABILITY RATE
16.0%
23.5%20.7%
33.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Downtown - Class A Downtown - Class B/C
Vacancy Rate Availability Rate
Suburban Office By Class – 3Qtr 2010 Source: CoStar Property
Supply
Total SF Vacant SF Avail SF Vac % Avail %
Suburban - Class A 3,877,000 817,000 988,000 21.1% 25.5%Suburban - Class B/C 14,887,000 3,085,000 4,939,000 20.7% 33.2%
Total 18,764,000 3,902,000 5,927,000 20.8% 31.6%
Vacant/Available Percent
SUBURBAN VACANCY vs. AVAILABILITY RATE
21.1% 20.7%25.5%
33.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Suburban - Class A Suburban - Class B/C
Vacancy Rate Availability Rate
Vacancy By Submarket – 3Qtr 2010
18.1%
22.7%
24.1%
24.4%
19.8%
27.6%
17.8%
21.3%
15.3%
19.9%
12.5%
19.0%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Dtwn-E
Dtwn-W
Dtwn-3rd
Milw (Outside)
Mayfair/Wau.
North Shore
West Allis
Brook/NB
Cent.Waukesha
Wauk Cnty (other)
Ozaukee Cnty
Wash. Cnty
Submarkets to left of this line are performing better than the overall market average
Historical Vacancy Trend – Milwaukee Office
Availability Rate TrendSource: CoStar Property
Market Trends – Absorption, Deliveries, & Vacancy
Office Sales Volume Trends
Office Sales – Sale Price/SF Trend
Who Are the Buyers???
3-yr 1-yr
Individuals 27.8% 41.2%
Inst. Investors 30.6% 17.7%
National Cap Rate Trends – CBD & Suburban
National Cap Rate Trends & Value Change
Observations:
• All the growth in value from cap rate compression between 2000 and 2007 was lost in just 2-years (2007-2009)
•Surveys suggest stabilization in office cap rates by First Quarter 2010 with a slight decrease in the 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2010
Cap Rate Trends & ValueSuburban Office
National ValueCap Rate Change
3Q-2010 8.40% 2.3%2Q-2010 8.60% 2.2%1Q-2010 8.79% -0.5%
2009 8.75% -15.3%2008 7.59% -5.4%2007 7.20% 7.1%2006 7.75% 4.6%2005 8.12% 7.0%2004 8.73% 8.1%2003 9.50% 5.2%2002 10.02% -5.6%2001 9.49% -2.9%2000 9.22% -
2000 - 2007 21.9%2007 - 2009 -21.5%
Source: Korpacz RE Investor Survey
Milwaukee Cap Rates
Office Market Projection for 2011
• Vacancy – Stable
• Rental Rates – Stable
• New Construction – None
• Cap Rates – Stable
• Investment Activity – Increase
Contact Information
Michael J. TompkinsVice PresidentThe Nicholson Group LLC 555 S Industrial Drive, Suite 207Hartland, WI 53029
262.369.5400 ext 23262.369.5401 Fax262.993.2092 [email protected]