MIoIR has 5 major research themes in which we are, or seek to be, world leaders:

1. Technology strategy and innovation management

2. Service and organisational innovation

3. Science and innovation policy – including as a strong pillar: Foresight

4. Innovation and sustainability

5. Innovation and economic development

MIoIR brings together the strengths of PREST and CRIC

Analysis: Evolution of Foresight practice: past, present & future

Research: Innovation & Systemic Foresight Methodology

Development: New tools & techniques (e.g. Evolutionary Scenarios)

Practice: Supra-national, national, regional & sectoral applications

Capacity building: Education & Training (PhD, MSc courses & Exec. ed.)

Publication: Foresight - The journal of future studies, strategic thinking &

policy

Innovation: What’s in the horizon? Scanning

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• Increased financial, trade and investment flows• Rapid and accelerating technological progress; ICTs,

biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies• New international regulations and standards on trade,

quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights• New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage

products and services• Global value chains and production networks• Other developments including globalisation, changes in

demographic structures and in cultural practices, and environmental affairs

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• Emerging small economies coming out of crises, mostly fragile

• Struggling to identify new drivers of long-term development

• Pressures to exploit new markets, partnerships and to generate progress to catch up with the more advanced economies

• Low technological base, and limited capacity to innovate and attract early stage financing for technology start-ups

• Need to utilise new policy making and prioritisation tools to reposition the region of the WBCs within the wider European and global context and to prepare for the global challenges successfully

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The Europe 2020 puts forward three mutually reinforcing priorities: (i)Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation(ii)Sustainable growth: promoting a more resource efficient, greener and more competitive economy(iii)Inclusive growth: fostering a high-employment economy delivering social and territorial cohesion

EU 2020 strategy should inform the region’s own efforts at developing a shared, long-term vision for the future.

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Objectives and expected outcomes•Support of Knowledge Based competitiveness in the context of globalization; changing demografic structures and cultural practices; and increased concerns for environmental affairs•Achievement of good public governance, vibrant and innovative private sectors, solid infrastructure, educated population and affordable and fair social services, consistent with the EU targets•Exploitation of the region’s creative potentials and available resources by opening opportunities for sectoral development and thus increasing the role of the region in the EU and global economy

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Focus 1: Institutional strengthening and good governanceImplementation of the rule of lawImproved human rights Fight against corruptionIncreased securityFocus 2: Competitive Western Balkans economies in the global marketplaceSound business and investment environmentHigh employmentEnhanced innovation capacityIdentification of key regional competenciesHigh-value added industrySingle market

Focus 3: Integrated and Cross-Sectoral Infrastructure DevelopmentProvision of regional infrastructure

Focus 4: Building Knowledge-Based SocietiesImproved education systems (primary, secondary, higher, VET)Appropriate research and development policyDeveloped information societyCulture and heritage

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• Private sector and industry • Civil society / general public • National and regional governments• Research, academia and higher education

institutions• Scientific diasporas • Media for dissemination• and other relevant stakeholders

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• Anticipation and projections of long-term developments

• Interactive and participative methods of debate and analysis

• Forging new social networks

• Elaboration of strategic visions and priorities based on a shared sense of commitment

• Implications for present-day decisions and actions

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• Information to understand complex interactions between products, services, users and other stakeholders in multiple contexts in which these products and services are used

• Intelligence through scanning to explore trends, drivers of change, weak signals, surprises and shocks, as well as persistent problems

• Imagination in a holistic innovation ecosystem by integrating Foresight, Creativity and Design

• Interaction with the systematic involvement of users / stakeholders in early development stages in an inclusive process with long-term perspective

with and effective Implementation!

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Science &Ecology

Technology& Economics

SocioeconomicsPolitics & Values

What is possible?

What is desirable?

What is feasible?

Systemic Foresight

Systemic Foresight

Systemic understanding – Creates shared understanding and mutual

appreciation of issues at hand Systems synthesis and modelling

– The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world

Systemic analysis and Selection – Analyses the alternative models of the future

and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future

System transformation – Establishes the relationship between the

future and the present for a successful change programme

Systemic action – Creates plans to inform present day

decisions for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations

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ActionsTransformationSynthesis &Models

Understanding Analysis &Selection

Scanning

PanelsConferences

Bibliometrics/ Data Mining

LiteratureReview

Interviews

SystemAnalysis

Trends/DriversIndicators

Priority Lists

PanelsConferences

ImpactAssessment

R&DPlanning

Critical/KeyTechnologies

OperationalPlanning

Action Planning

Gaming

PanelsConferences

ScenarioPlanning

Wild CardWeak Signals

NetworkAnalysis

Modelling/ Simulation

Agent BasedModelling

SWOTAnalysis

PanelsConferences

Multi CriteriaAnalysis

Cross ImpactAnalysis

Prioritisation/ Delphi

Benefit/Cost/Risk Analysis

ScoringVoting/Rating

Backcasting

PanelsConferences

Road Mapping

RelevanceTrees

Logic Charts

StrategicPlanning

LinearProgramming

Information

Intelligence

Imagination

Inclusivity

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A set of product and process oriented benefits:•Priority areas in socio-economic development (e.g. joint investment plans, joint financial schemas, harmonisation of policies, regional technological and economic platforms)•Collaborative research projects in the areas of mutual interest – e.g. KBS and thus increased visibility and scientific excellence of the joint institutes•A valuable forum for exchanging ideas between academia, industry and policy makers within the WBCs and with the EU•A model for participatory ‘bottom-up’ policy making, strengthening the innovation capacities in the region, building a shared vision in a creative process, towards a more socially responsible economy and industry•Changing public perception towards knowledge and information technologies, increased innovation and improved services, improved legal framework

17©J.Ravetz 2009

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