Missile Defense Agency, ICOTE Brief on MS - 12-MDA-7017 24 Sep 12

8/9/2019 Missile Defense Agency, ICOTE Brief on MS - 12-MDA-7017 24 Sep 12

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Missile Defense Agency

Modeling and Simulation

25 Sept 2012Presented to:

NDIA (ICOTE) Industrial Committee on Test & Evaluation

Keith EnglanderDirector for EngineeringMissile Defense AgencyApproved for Public Release

12- MDA-7017 (24 September 12)


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BMDS Evaluation Strategy

The BMDS performance evaluation strategy is to develop models and simulations of the BMDS and compare their predictions to empirical data collected through comprehensive flight and ground testing tovalidate their accuracy, rather than physically testing all

combinations of BMDS configurations, engagement conditions, and target phenomena.LTG Patrick OReilly, Director, MDA

February 25, 2009 Testimony to the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommitteeon Strategic Forces

MDA has implemented a BMDS simulation based acquisition by: Revising the M&S Program to focus on BMDS Capability Assessment and Refocusing the BMDS Test Program to support data collection for M&S Validation

Approved for Public Release12- MDA-7017 (24 September 12)


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Flight tests must be focused on model & simulation validation, the validatedM&S tools can then fully explore the BMDS performance envelope

BMDS Evaluation Strategy is a Direct Result ofFlight Test Program Limitations

Lag time to develop new targets thatmimic threat attributes

Flight Test complexity constraints- Example: Limited number

of simultaneous engagements

Flight safety restrictions

Data collection limitations

Cost

Flight testing alone can never provide an adequate body ofevidence to fully characterize BMDS performance

Interceptor firing fromVandenberg Air Force

Base, California



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Balancing Missile Defense Test Venues



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A New ParadigmFlight Test Design Based on M&S Needs

Critical EngagementConditions (CECs)- Key test points and conditions

where model anchoring datamust be collected in flight tests,

ground tests, exercises, andreal-world operations

- CECs are physics-basedparameters that define specificconditions under whichengagements must occur

Critical Engagement Conditions -- CECs, not specific threat attributes, are the primary flight test design driver

Note: The primary objectives for flight tests are tied to CECs

Generic Interceptor Performance Envelope

A LT

I T

U D E

R A N G E

StressesSeekerPerformance

Interceptor Launch Point

Non-linearPerformanceBoundary

Stresses SensorPerformance

StressesInterceptorKinematics

Range SafetyConstraint

Critical EngagementCondition

1

2

3

4



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The Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) is a complex system ofelements, the integration of which enable a robust, layered defenseto defend against a hostile missile in all phases of flight

Modeling such a system is inherently complex requiring an end-to-end modeling and simulation (M&S) effort and vigorous system-level verification and validation (V&V) of that M&S

VV&A is critical to understand system capabilities and provideconfidence in M&S that its representative of real-world BMDSbehavior

System-level V&V activities allows verification and validation ofinterfaces between Elements and the resulting emergent behaviorsnot observed during individual element V&V efforts

BMDSSystem-level Verification and Validation



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Verification, Validation & AccreditationEssential and Complex

Validated and Accredited M&S are Required for BMDSPerformance Assessment and Capability Fielding Decisions

Validated means that the model represents (to a specified levelof detail) physical reality

Accreditation is the Official Certification that a Model,

Simulation, or Federation of Models and Simulations andAssociated Data are Acceptable for Use for a Specific Purpose.

Testing to provide referent data is limited

- Each test requires meticulous M&S involvement to ensure thecorrect data, in the correct format under the correct conditions

- Thousands of data parameters need to be collected under manyoperationally realistic conditions, assessed, and where necessaryimplemented in a variety of M&S representations

Appro ved for Public Release12- MDA-7017 (24 September 12)


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M&S Verification & Validation Process

Flight Test (FT)

Post FlightReconstruction (primaryM&S validation method)

Digital(EPFR/SPFR)

DSA-P Validation

HWIL(EPFR/SPFR)

HWIL SystemValidation

System-level V&Vto support

Technical & PerformanceAssessment Events

(TAs / PAs)

DSA-PVerification & Validation

Ground Tests (GT)

HWIL SystemVerification & Validation

M&SElement/System

AccreditationDigital SystemAccreditation

HWIL SystemAccreditation

Accredited M&Sused for:

- Capability Delivery- Operational Testing- BMDS Operational

PerformancePrediction

Pre-Mission Test(PMT)

M&S Status UpdateCEC/EMEs Performance Parameter/

Acceptability Criteria

M&S Improvement

Simulation Trouble or Incident Reports (STIRs)BMDS Deficiency Reports (BDRs)

Data Collected From Flight and Ground Tests is Essential to SuccessfulVerification, Validation and Accreditation of MDA M&S



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PAA Phase I M&S Architectures

DSA-P PAA Phase I Configuration

SSF PAA Phase I Configuration

M&S Assessment ToolSet is maturing through flight test pre-mission

analysis, post flight reconstruction, ground

testing and performance

assessment usingintegrated frameworks

and Element

representationsincreasing confidence to validate the PAA

Phase 1 MissionThread



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High VolumeModerate Complexity

Moderate Volume

High Complexity0

20

40

60

80

100

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Increasing # of Element HWIL Nodes IncreasesArchitecture Complexity

ET nodes MDSE nodes SSF SIUs

Increased Demand for Modeling & Simulation

Dramatically Increasing Demand for Modeling and Simulation across MDA is Empirical Evidence of Success in Adopting Simulation Based Acquisition



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The framework code is not allowed to be modified. Users can extend theframework (i.e., extensibility), but not modify its code.

Objective Simulation ArchitectureA Unified Framework

A Framework built on existingSSF & DSA Architectures toproduce a modular, scale-able,easily reconfigurable simulationwith both HWIL & Digitalconstituents:

- An extensible architecture (e.g.,

SOA) to simplify heterogeneousinterfaces

- A master clock to providesingular event control (HollywoodRule)

- A library of common softwareobjects: an Agile Computing

Environment

OSFThe Next Evolution in MDA Modeling and Simulation



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Execution of a technical vision toward a single, coordinated M&Sstrategy

VV&A remains essential M&S Program ever evolving to meet future BMDS Accredited M&S products capable of addressing the needs of

stakeholders Comprehensive set of modular, composable, scaleable, andextensible models that integrate seamlessly with Digital & HWILenvironments

M&S Strategic End State

Achieve the MDA Goal of Reducing Agency Costs Using Accredited M&S toComplement Flight Test and Expand the BMDS Testing Envelope



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Documents

Missile Defense Agency, ICOTE Brief on MS - 12-MDA-7017 24 Sep 12