Mission, Principles and Elements of a Green Real Deal

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Ensure an Equitable Transition to a Clean Energy

Future

Develop Innovation Portfolios for Near-

Term & Breakthrough Technologies

Support the Workforce for a

Clean Energy Future

Implement Fair & Effective Carbon

Pricing

Design and Deploy Large Scale

Carbon Management Systems

Assess and Support Regional/Sub-

national/Business Clean Energy

Solutions

GREEN REAL DEALFramework for Deeply

Decarbonized Energy

Systems

Invest in Climate-resilient and

Innovative Energy Infrastructure

Support Sustainable and Secure Clean

Energy Supply Chains

Provide a framework for

accelerating deep decarbonization of energy systems by

mid-century in ways that

minimize costs, maximize economic

opportunities and promote social

equity.

17.7

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Optim

ize

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ce F

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Electricity Transportation Industry Buildings Agriculture

GHG

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ctio

n Po

tent

ial

(MM

TCO 2

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TransportationElectricity Buildings AgricultureIndustrySource: EFI analysis

CA Technology Pathways to Meet 2030 Targets

Focusing the Energy Innovation Portfolio on Breakthrough Potential

• Federal and private clean energy innovation are complementary• Key platform technologies hold great potential to unlock significant

clean energy innovation• A four-step process is used to identify breakthrough technologies

that have the potential to aid government, industry and thought leaders in efforts to transform the energy sector

Analyze key drivers of clean energy technology

breakthroughsDigitalization, big data & smart systems

The difficult to decarbonize sectors

Integration of platform technologies

Systems and supply chains

Develop selection criteria for breakthrough

technologiesTechnical merit

Market viability

Compatibility

Consumer value

Identify the universe of emerging energy

technologies that have critical features across

various timescales

Identify innovation areas with significant

breakthrough potential

Critical innovation areas identified are:

Storage and battery technologies Advanced nuclear reactors Technology applications of industry

and buildings as sectors that are difficult to decarbonize including hydrogen, advanced manufacturing technologies; and building technologies

Systems: electric grid modernization and smart cities

Deep decarbonization/large-scale carbon management; carbon capture, use and storage at scale; sunlight to fuels; enhanced biological and oceans sequestration

DisposalGeologicOceansTerrestrial (e.g., deeper roots)

Recycling/DisplacementLiquid or gaseous fuels

DiluteAtmosphere

Oceans

CAPTURE SOURCES CAPTURE METHOD CONVERSION & DISPOSITION

TechnologicalDirect air captureDirect ocean capture (electrochemical)In situ carbon mineralization

NaturalForestry & land managementCrops & soil managementCoastal ecosystems (blue carbon)

Technologically-Enhanced Natural ProcessesEx situ carbon mineralizationAdvanced crop cultivarsBioenergy with CCS (BECCS)Ocean fertilizationOcean alkalinity enhancement

UtilizationEfficient or intensive EORProductsTerrestrial (e.g., biochar)

Select Pathways for Carbon Dioxide Removal, Conversion,and Disposition from Dilute CO2 Sources

Comprehensive 10-year RD&D initiative focused on multiple CDR technology pathwaysCapable of gigaton-scale deployment, at technology-specific cost targets, with minimal ecological impact

Goal

Organization

ProposedFunding

RD&DPortfolio

Federal Committee on Large-Scale Carbon Management12-agency, whole-of-government effort involving planning, budgeting, and coordination

$10.7B over 10 years, with $325M in the first full yearFunding distributed among 10 agencies in six separate appropriations bills

Carbon Mineralization

Coastal & Oceans

Geologic Sequestration

CO2Utilization

Systems Analysis

Direct Air Capture

Large-Scale Demonstration

Projects

Terrestrial & Biological

Cross-CuttingCO2 DispositionCapture Technology Pathways

27 Individual Portfolio Elements

Overview of CDR RD&D Initiative

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81

Lead Institution

University DOE Laboratory Non-Profit

EFRC Contributions* to Companies

ScienceApplicationsLow-Carbon Power

Energy Storage

The EFRCs harness the most basic and advanced discovery research in a concerted effort to establish the scientific foundation for a fundamentally new U.S. energy economy.

Energy Frontier Research Centers

Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E)

ARPA-E focuses on promoting transformational technologies with high risk, high payoff characteristics that may fall outside the path of conventional technology roadmaps

U.S. National Academy of Sciences recommended a funding path to an annual

budget of $1 billion for ARPA-E

Source: ARPA-E, U.S. Department of Energy, 2019

DOE Loan Programs Office Portfolio: Diverse, Regional, High Impact, Late-Stage Innovation

BACKUP

Science, Data Sending Alarms, Urgent Action Needed

• 9 of 10 warmest years on record between 2005-2016

• Arctic warming 2-3x faster than global average; its sea ice is declining at a rate of 12.8 percent per decade

• Sea levels (global average) have risen 7-8 inches since 1900; could reach 1-4 feet by 2100

• In May 2019, atmospheric CO2concentration reached 415 ppm, the highest level in at least 800,000 yrs.

• At the current rate of warming of 0.2°C per decade, the planet will likely reach the lower target of 1.5°C by as early as 2030

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• According to the IPCC, “…On land, impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems, including species loss and extinction, are projected to be lower at 1.5°C of global warming compared to 2°C”

• An increase of 2° C in global average temperatures means that 37% of the world’s population will experience extreme heat, compared to 14% at 1.5°

• As of 2018, 2/3rds of the major emitting countries were not on track to meet their targets

• In 2018, US CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion rose 2.7%

Hourly trends in solar and wind capacity factors in CA for 2017 aligned to normalized variation in hourly load relative to peak daily load

Over the course of a year large-scale dependence on both wind and solar will result in significant periods requiring very large-scale back-up options

Source: CAISO data, EFIanalysis

1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 1314 15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 2829 30

31

3233 34 35 36 3738 39 40 4241

43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 53 555457

52 565958 6463 6765 66626160

6

687069 7271 73 74 7675 78 8077 828179 83 84 85 86 87 88 8990

Significant Challenges for Utility Scale Battery StorageChallenges with Integrating Intermittent Renewables

Seasonal Variation in Solar & Wind

Metered Solar Generation Wind Generation

1.5 TWh in January

3.2 TWh in June

0.6 TWh in January

2.0 TWh in June

Source: EFI, compiled using data from CAISO

Significant Challenges for Utility Scale Battery StorageChallenges with Integrating Intermittent Renewables

CA Breakthrough Technology Portfolio, Post-2030

Seasonal Storage Direct Air Capture, Large Scale Carbon Management

Source: EFI Analysis, NREL

Meeting the Clean Energy Ministerial’starget of 30 million

electric vehicle sales by 2030

would require 314 kt/yr. of cobalt,

almost three times the 2017 level for all uses. At those

rates, reserves would last 23 years.

Carbonbrief.org

Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel Production/Reserves

Tesla’s global supply manager for battery metals, told

a closed-door Washington

conference of miners, regulators

and lawmakers that the automaker sees

a shortage of key EV minerals coming

in the near future…Tesla will continue to focus more on nickel, part of a plan by Chief Executive

Elon Musk to use less cobalt in

battery cathodes.Electrek, May, 2019

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Lithium Production/Reserves (metric tons)

Source: USGS, 2019

Cobalt Production/Reserves (metric tons)

Nickel (metric tons)