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Missouri River Basin Water ManagementFall 2014 Public MeetingsFall 2014 Public Meetings
hOctober 27th
October 28th
October 28th
O t b 29th
6:00 p.m. 11:00 a.m. 6:00 p.m.11 00
Fort Peck, MTBismarck, NDPierre, SDS ith ill MOOctober 29th
October 29th11:00 a.m.6:00 p.m.
Smithville, MOCouncil Bluffs, IA
US Army Corps of EngineersBUILDING STRONG
®
Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System
Fort Peck Dam and Reservoir Garrison Dam and Reservoir
Fort Peck
GarrisonMontana
NorthDakotaNorthDakota
Oahe Big Bend
SouthDakotaOahe Dam and Reservoir Big Bend Dam and Reservoir
Fort Randall
Gavins PointWyoming
Nebraska
Iowa
Gavins Point Dam and Reservoir
KansasMissouri
Colorado
Fort Randall Dam and Reservoir
Missouri
2
Our MissionRegulate Missouri River Mainstem Reservoirs to
Water Supply Water Quality C t lFl d C t l Hydropower
gSupport Congressionally Authorized Purposes
ControlFlood Control Hydropower
Navigation IrrigationFish and Wildlife Including Threatened and
Recreation
gEndangered Species
3
4
Missouri River Mainstem SystemStorage Zones and Allocations StorageStorage Zones and Allocations
Exclusive Flood Control 6%72.4
67 7
72.8
StorageIn MAF*
Historic max - 2011
56.1
67.7
Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16% 58.7Oct 22, 2014
Carryover
We are here
Carryover Multiple Use 53% 33.9Historic min - 2007
Permanent Pool 25%
17.6
*Storages updated in August 2013 b d i
0
5
based on reservoir surveys.
Mainstem Reservoir Storage Capacity
25Million Acre-Feet
20
15
5
10
0
5
Fort Peck Garrison Oahe Big Bend Fort Randall Gavins Point
Permanent Carryover Annual Flood Exclusive Flood 6
Runoff ComponentsMountain SnowpackPlains Snowpack Rainfall
May, June d J l
March and A il
March through O t band JulyApril October
2014 Forecast = 35 5 MAF 141% of normal*2014 Forecast = 35.5 MAF, 141% of normal
7*October 1 forecast; normal runoff is 25.2 MAF
Plains Snowpack
March 1, 2013March 1, 2011
March 1, 2014
8
a c , 0
Source: NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC)
Missouri River Basin2013 14 Mountain Snowpack Water Content
26Total above Fort Peck
26Total Fort Peck to Garrison
2013-14 Mountain Snowpack Water Content
1820222426
quiv
alen
t
1820222426
quiv
alen
t
132%140%
1012141618
f Wat
er E
q
1012141618
fWat
er E
q02468
Inch
es o
f
2468
Inch
es o
f 0
O N D J F M A M J J A S
2013-14 1981-2010 Ave
0O N D J F M A M J J A S
2013-14 1981-2010 Ave
Source: USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) Water and Climate Center 9
Precipitation Percent of Normal
Previous 180 Days
Previous 90 Days
10Source: National Weather Service, Missouri Basin River Forecast Center (MBRFC)
1111
12
Long-Term OutlooksTemperature and Precipitationp p
Nov-Dec-Jan Nov-Dec-Jan
13Source: National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
NOAA Outlooks for 2014-15 Winter/SpringMi i Ri B iMissouri River Basin
The basin is predominantly drought free. Soil moisture in most of the p y gbasin is wetter than average entering the winter because of heavy summer and fall precipitation.
Weak to moderate El Niño conditions are likely for winter (65% chance), y ( )which is reflected in the precipitation and temperature outlooks for the winter months.
Temperature Outlook – increased chance of warmer than normal in the upper basin, and equal chances in the lower basin, for most of the winter and early spring based on El Niño conditions.
Precipitation Outlook – no strong indicators; equal chances of dry, wet or close to normal for the winter and early spring for most of the basin. Weak chance of drier-than-average conditions in western Montana.
Drought Outlook – no significant change in drought conditions expected.
Source: Doug Kluck, Regional Climate Services Director, Central Region, NOAA 14
Missouri River Mainstem SystemAnnual Runoff above Sioux City, IAAnnual Runoff above Sioux City, IA
70Million Acre-Feet
Historic Drought Periods
50
60Historic Drought Periods
2014
30
40U.D.
U Q
10%
25%
34.5 MAF
30.6
20
30
L.D.L.Q.
U.Q.
Med.
90% 75%
25%
50%
16.119.3
30.6
24.6
0
10
01890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
15Year
Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 2014 Actual and Forecast2014 Actual and Forecast
8
9Million Acre-Feet
6
7
8
4
5
6
2
3
0
1
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014 Normal Forecast 16
Fall / Winter Releases Starting in late August releases have been above normal in order to Starting in late August releases have been above normal in order to
evacuate stored flood waters and prepare the reservoir system for the 2015 runoff seasonG i P i D i l ill b d d i Gavins Point Dam winter releases will be reduced to winter rate beginning approximately December 1st (10-day extension of navigation season)
Will closely monitor channel/ice conditions between reservoirs and downstream of Gavins Point Dam
Gavins Point Dam winter releases of 20 kcfs (1000 cfs) to completeGavins Point Dam winter releases of 20 kcfs (1000 cfs) to complete evacuation of stored flood waters
Expected releases in kcfs:N D J F bNov Dec Jan Feb
Fort Peck 5.0 6.5 7.5 7.5Garrison 22.0 19.0 24.0 24.0
17
Garrison 22.0 19.0 24.0 24.0 Gavins Point 45.5 20.0 20.0 20.0
Results of 2014 Regulation and Planned Operation forPlanned Operation for
Authorized Purposes in 2015p
18
Current Reservoir Levels – October 22, 2014F t P k G i
Elevation in feet msl
Elevation in feet msl
2220 1
Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &
Multiple Use
2250
2220 1
Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &
Multiple Use
2246
2234
18541850
1837.5
Fort Peck Garrison
2233 0
1843.4
2220.1
Carryover Multiple Use
Permanent
2220.1
Carryover Multiple Use
Permanent2160 1775
2233.0
Permanent Pool
Permanent Pool
2030 1673
Oahe Fort Randall
1.0 feet below base of Flood Control zone Elevation in
feet mslElevation in
feet msl
5.9 feet above base of Flood Control zone
2220.1
Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &
Multiple Use2220.1
Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &
Multiple Use
16201617
1607.5
13751365
1350
Oahe Fort Randall
1610.71346.92220.1
Carryover Multiple Use
Permanent
2220.1
Carryover Multiple Use
Permanent1540 1320Permanent
PoolPermanent
Pool1415 1240
3.1 feet below base of Flood Control zone 193.2 feet above base of Flood Control zone
System Storage 2014-2015 Draft AOP
75
2014 2015 Draft AOP
Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 72.4 MAF
Million Acre-Feet
65
70Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 67.7 MAF
60
65
55Base of Annual Flood Control – 56.1 MAF
50System Storage Check
Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian
45J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
2014 2015 201620
Upper Decile and Lower Decile
Fort Peck 2014-2015 Draft AOP
2250 Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 2250 feet mslElevation in feet msl
2240
2245 Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 2246 feet msl
2235
2240
Base of Annual Flood Control – 2234 feet msl
2230
2225
Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian
2220J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
2014 2015 201621
Upper Decile and Lower Decile
Garrison2014-2015 Draft AOP
1855 Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 1854 feet mslElevation in feet msl
1845
1850 Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 1850 feet msl
1840
1845
1835
Base of Annual Flood Control – 1837.5 feet msl
1830
Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian
1825J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
2014 2015 201622
Upper Decile and Lower Decile
Oahe 2014-2015 Draft AOP
1620 Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 1620 feet msl
Base of Exclusive Flood Control 1617 feet msl
Elevation in feet msl
1610
1615Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 1617 feet msl
1605
1610Base of Annual Flood Control – 1607.5 feet msl
1600
1595
Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian
1590J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
2014 2015 201623
Upper Decile and Lower Decile
Flood Damages Prevented by Mainstem DamsIndexed to 2013 Levels
25.025
30 Billion Dollars
20
25
12.915
Total Damages Prevented = $53.6 billion
7.8 8.2
5.6
10
0.3
3.12.0
0.1
3.1
0.5 0.4
3.2 3.72.5
.
0.0 0.20
5
0
24
Flood Control
System storage started this year 5.5 MAF below the base of the annual flood control zone►Peaked at 61.3 MAF, utilizing 32% of total , g
flood storage
All scenarios start next year’s runoffAll scenarios start next year s runoff season at the base of the annual flood control zonecontrol zone Flooding can still occur due to
d t i f lldownstream rainfall25
Hydropower
14
16Billion kWh
10
12
14
8
10
4
6
0
2
54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 1454 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14
Gavins Point Fort Randall Big Bend Oahe Garrison Fort Peck ForecastYear
26
Missouri RiverTotal Navigation Tonnageg g
10Million Tons
789
456
234
01
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Commercial Waterway Materials Sand and Gravel Estimated27
Year
2014 – Full length season + 10-day extensionNavigation
► 3,000 cfs below full service first half of season► Service level increased to full service after July 1 storage check
R l i d b f ll i i l t A t t t► Releases increased above full service in late August to evacuate stored flood water
2015 – March 15 Storage Check2015 March 15 Storage Check► Full service level flow support (all runoff scenarios)► Target locations: Sioux City, Omaha, Nebraska City and
Kansas City
2015 – July 1 Storage Check► F ll l th ( ll ff i )► Full length season (all runoff scenarios)
• 10-day extension for upper quartile and upper decile runoff► Full service level flow support for lower quartile runoff and
above
28
Water Supply – Water QualityIrrigation – Recreation
2014
Irrigation Recreation
►Normal to above normal elevations and releases• Water supply intakes, recreation areas, irrigation, and
imarinas
►Gavins Point Dam winter releases of 20 kcfs 2015
►Near normal pool levels and releases►Gavins Point Dam winter releases of 17 kcfs
under median runoff
29
Fish and Wildlife
Steady to rising levels at upper three y g ppreservoirs during forage fish spawn►Favor Fort Peck and Oahe if runoff below►Favor Fort Peck and Oahe if runoff below
normal
Mi i i i d f l t F t Minimize periods of zero releases at Fort Randall Coldwater habitat will be monitored
30
Endangered Species Act of 1973g pEach Federal agency shall... ensure that any action authorized, funded, or carried out by such agency… is not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of any endangered or threatened species or result in the destruction or adverse modification of habitat…
Piping PloverPiping PloverListed “Threatened” 1986
Interior Least TernListed “Endangered” 1986
Pallid SturgeonListed “Endangered” 1990 31
Piping Plover and Least TernThreatened and Endangered Species
2014 Regulation from mid-May to mid-August
Piping Plover and Least Tern
2014 Regulation from mid May to mid August Availability of sandbar habitat remains high Adult populations and nest success down mainly due Adult populations and nest success down mainly due
to high reservoir levels this summer Fledge ratiosFledge ratios
►Piping plover fledge ratios met on Garrison and Gavins Point river reachesGavins Point river reaches
32
Piping Plover and Least TernThreatened and Endangered Species
2015 Gavins Point
Piping Plover and Least Tern
►Steady release – flow to target►Cycle Gavins Point releases
Intra-day peaking patterns – Garrison and Fort Randall Measures to minimize take
►Utilize Kansas River projects for navigation►Utilize Kansas River projects for navigation support
►Target flows may not be met in reaches without►Target flows may not be met in reaches without commercial navigation
33
Bi Modal Spring Pulse Pallid SturgeonThreatened and Endangered Species
2003 A d d Bi l i l O i i
Bi-Modal Spring Pulse – Pallid Sturgeon
2003 Amended Biological Opinion –Reasonable and Prudent Alternative Neither pulse conducted in 2014 Neither pulse planned in 2015
i i d d i d i l►Pursuing independent science advisory panel (ISAP) recommendations
►Forego spring pulse while developing►Forego spring pulse while developing management plan
34
Summary
All flood storage space available to start All flood storage space available to start 2015 runoff season Near normal releases and reservoir levels
(median runoff)( ) Good service to all authorized purposes
35
Thank You!Jody Farhat, P.E. 402.996.3840 [email protected]
Thank You!
Kevin Grode, P.E. 402.996.3870 [email protected] Swenson, P.E. 402.996.3860 [email protected]
Written comments on draft AOP accepted through November 21, 2014. Comments may be e-mailed to:
Missouri.Water.Management@nwd02.usace.army.milMissouri.Water.Management@nwd02.usace.army.milor mailed to:
Missouri River Basin Water Management1616 C it l A S it 3651616 Capitol Avenue, Suite 365, Omaha, NE 68102-4909.
website: http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/36