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Epistemic Leaks and EpistemicMeltdowns: A Response oWilliam Morris on Scep;ticismwith Regard to Reason'Mikael M. KarlssonI.In an excellent paper which appeared in the Aprii, 1989 ssue ofthisjournal,'William Morris attempts to demonstt'abe hat the algumentswhich make up Hume's notorious chapter, "Of scepticism with regardto reason,oo re, in tl-re irst place, coherent-both inbernally and withtl"re overall strategy of the Treotlse-and, in the second place,successful."

I\Iorris' paper is an exercise in the noble art of what I styleconstructiue eregesis, an enterprise to which many readers of HumeSradies,an d nryself as much as any, are comnitted. It is a guidingprinciple ofthis art that we do not undersland a philosophical text untilwe can interpret it in such a way as to render it both coherent and,correct.oFrom this priint of'l.ietv,cohelence and correctnessare not asindependent of one u,rolher as they may see ln to be to others who aredifferently con.rmitted.

Some exts, such as Hume's chapter, "Of scepbicisnrvith t egard toreason," are notoriously resistant to constructive exegesis,despife theformidable bag of tricks which scholars and interpreters havedeveloped;so resistant, that in gioomier rnoments we nlay be broughtto wonder about our interpretative enterprise itself. Constructiveexegesis is indeed a strange, and peculiarly optimistic, enterprise.Someday, I imagine, in a leisurely moment, I wil l think morereflectively about the principles of our art. But not now.bAs a fellow practiticiner of constr.uctive exegesis, I am in {!llsynpathy with what Nlorrjs tries to do in his paper; and I think thathe does contribute substantially to our understanding of rvhat Humeis up to in the chapter, "Of scepticism with regard to reason." The thirdsection of Morris' paper' is, in my judgement, particularly successfulin showing how Hume's chapter fits into the larger framervork of theTreatise: Hunre is , we see, attacking boli what Morris labels"lntellectualist rationalism" and iLs counterpart, which we may call'unmitigated scepticism',although the chapter's two main argumentsgo primarily to the former. I also think that Mon-is gives very helpful,

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and to my mind accurate, accounts of these two^arguments, which Idub, respecbively, he epistemic leah orgument,o and the epistemicmeltdown argument.s However, I have personally never found eitherof these arguments remotely convincing; and I still do not, despiteMorris'clarification and defense. n what follows, I shall indicate someofthe reasons or my dissatisfaction.II .The epistemic eak argument purports to "prove"(in Hume's sense) hatreasonot demonstration cannot support knowledge.Morris rightly reminds us that what Hume means by knouledge isperfect ossurqnce or conuiction: Knowledge is, in short, subjectivecertainty. This has caused confusion, for this is not what we usuailymean nowadays by knowledge; nor was it what people, phiiosophersincluded, generally meant prior to Descartes. n Hume it is the productof the attempt to resolveall epistemic states nto mental events or whathe calls nperceptions." In any case, we must-as Morris rightlyexplains-be clear that the epistemic ieak argument is aimed atshowing that demonstration csnn ot support p erfec con u ct o n.In outline, the argumentis simple: It works, as \lorris makes clear,by shifting attention away from the subject-rnatter or "objects" ofdemonstrat ion, that i s , re la t ions of ideas, to the exerc iseofdemonsbrative eason by human agents. The necessity ofrelations ofideas may suggest to us that we csn be certain about them. Againstthis, one may point out that people do err in the conclusi onsarrived atby demonstration; this presumably shows that ou r (rationa])understanding is fallibie. And oncewe recogrize this, our confidence nany conclusion produced by exercising his faculty is lessened-thus dowe move from knotaledge, r subjective certainty, to probability: belief,or imperfect conviction.

Arguments of this general type (we can cdl them, using Descartes'famous figure, 'rotten-apple arguments"") were around long beforeHume, although they were more commonly directed against the sensesthan against reason. We find them in antiquity-in Plato and SextusEmpiricus, for instancell-and in Descartes, n parallel passages nthe Discourse on luIethod, the Firs/ Meditation and the Principles ofPhilosophy, wherein one can discern a version directed preciselyagainsi reason and demonstr"tion.l2 To find out what, if anything,Hume has to add, we must turn to the detailed argument in Hume'schapter.

As Morris explains, Hume's detailed argument is built aroundexamples which are supposed to be paradigms of demonstration orreason-to wit, arithmctic calculotions, and more specifically, dorngsunr.s.Morris accepts this device without demur. But I protest,

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parenthetically, that the notion that doing sums provides us with agood example of demonstrative reasoning is a piece of 17th-centuryclaptrap, with roots in ancient Greece. don't think it's an example ofdemonstrative reasoning at all, even ofthe kind supposedly engagedin by mathematicians.'o Worse yet, I don't think that it's evenrepresentati ve of the category of things which Hume himself classifiesa s d e mo n s t ra t i o n s . W h a t w e h a v e h e re i s , i n my v i e w , amisunderstanding which Hume tak es up without criticism, and whichphilosophers have regularly parroted without reflecbion, right up tothis very day. If I am correct in this-and I do not argue for ithere-then even if the epistemic leak argument were valid as such, itwould not show nruch about demonstration.But no matter. Let us proceed on Hume's terms. "[A]s none willmaintain," Hume says:

that our assurance n a long numeration exceedsprobability,I may safely affirm, that there scarce is any propositionconcerning numbers, of which we can have a fuller securit5i.(T 181)This is really the ground of the detailed argument, and it is notparticulariy objectionable. Let us grant that our confidence in the resultof a lengthy addition problem is rarely, if ever, full. From this, Humeargues that:

'[T]is easily possible, by gradually diminishing the numbers,to reduce the longest series of addition to the most simplequestion, which can be form'd, to an addition of two singlenumbers; .. . [but] if any single addition were certain, everyone wou'd be so, and consequently the whole or total sum;unless the whole can be different from all its parts. (T f81)This text is not quoted in full by Morris; but he paraphrases, explains,and clearly ap proves ofthe argument which it contains.l4 In a moment,I shall present my r easons for thinking that this argument is actuallya non sequitur. But before I do, let me note that we here discover animportant wrinkle in Hume's version o{'the otten-apple argument. Forwhat Hume is doing is arguing against the kind of limitation whichmost philosophers have placed upon such arguments.The typical lesson drawn from rotten-apple arguments byphilosophers prior to Hume was not that we cannever be ully confidentof any judgement an'ived at by our somewhat-fallible faculties, butrather thabour faculties are fully dependable /exercised Mlhin certainlimits-the trick was to circumscribe the domain within which our

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cognitive faculties yield knowledge and trust them less outside ofthatdomain.16According to this view, the'product-advice'directed to whatMorris calls rationally reflectiueepistemiccgenfs might be: "cognitivefacilities-safe when used as directed."

In the case of demonstration, one widely-regarded idea among"intellectualist rationalistso from Aristotle (and Euclid) onward wasthat demonstration could be divided into simple or irnmediaterationalintuitions, on the one hand, and d.emonstrations nvolving inferentialsteps,on the other. Arguably, the exerciseofreason never fails in theformer case, though it may go wrong in the latter'Now, Hume is awutering this--it is precisely in order to do so thatthe argument just quoted appears; for if the rationalist is permitted todivide and conquer in the manner indicated, the general scepticalconclusion or which Hume is arguing will, of course,not go through.

This gives he lie to Fogelin's claim, quoted by Morris, that Hume:ignores the possibility that our grasp of a simple propositionconcerning numbers may not involve caiculations at all '.. [so]the fallibitty that infects our calculations need not touch ourintuitive understanding.r6

Hume doesn't ignore this possibility: on the contrary ,he orgues ogoinstir! On the other hand, to gladden Fogelin, we can point out that Hume'sargument is no good. For it isn't true that doing a long sum-a longsumming-up--amounts merely to doing the various "additions of twosimple numbers" which constitute steps n the addition. One must alsokeep track of where one is in the addition. One might foul up thisbook-keeping task, which depends upon memory' even if all the simpleadditions were impeccable.Thus, long summings-up might frequentlybe n error, even f simple additions never were. Consequently, Hume'sunrestricted rotten-apple argument fails. Of course' it's still an openquestion whether simple additions do fail or not. I suggest that someOike adding 8 and 7, or 9 and 4) may do, but that others (like adding Iand 1, or 2 and2) don't. Hume himself invites us to:

comprehend a kind ofhistory ofall the instances, wherein ourunderstanding has deceiy'd us, compar'd with those, whereinits testimony was ust and true. (T 180)

As a matter of fact and experience, I suggest, it mcy well be possible todescribea range of caseswhere adding numbers, at least, never fails.

Before eaving the epistemic eak argument, I must take up a claimmade by Morris, in support of Hume, which Hume does not makehimself. Morris says:

EPISTEMIC LEAKS AND EPISTEMIC MELTDOWNS

Even if there are some solated circumstancesin which I canbe sure that I can nfallibly intuit a .simpleaddition,, this won'thelp me in explaining my confidence in the results of ,thedemonstrative sciences'. can't generalize from those specjalc i rcumstances to al i the mathemat ica l an d scient i f icdemonstrations I now accept. Isolated intuitjons will notprovide an interesting or important category of things Iknow.t 'Th e word "isolated," as Monis employs it in this passage, istendentious. A circumscribed, limited class of intuitions mav wellprovide an interesting and important category of things I know: theaxioms of Euclidian geomtry, for instance, or the principle ofnon-contradiction. (Here we see, perhaps, the baneful influence uponMorris of thinking of sums as paradigms of demonstration or rationalintuition.) But part of Morris' point is right. Many of the things wesupposewe know are things which we don'tactuallyknow, atleast uponone understanding of knowledge; and indeed Hume's argument-likerotten-apple arguments generally-helps us to see this. Hume isperhaps to be thanked for eroding our confidence in certain things.However, that was not the intent of his argument: It was supposeitoshow that "olJ knowledge [read perfect mnoictionf degenerals intoprobabil i ty [read less-than-perfect conuiction]' (T rg0, italicsadded)-and in this, as far I can se, t fails.III.Let us now turn to the epistemic meltdown argument, which issupposed to show, as Morris explains, that for the so_called"rationally-refl ective epistemic agent,o ali probabilities-judgementsmade upon that mode of reasoning which yields less-ihari_perfectconfidence,even n the first instance-reduce to nothingEven "the man of the best sense and ther,.ngest experience, ...osays Hume:

must be consciousof many errors in the past, and must stilldread the like for the future. ...Having thus found in every probability, beside the originaluncertainty inherent in the subject, a new uncertainty derivdfrom the weakness of that faculty, which judges, ..i *" u."oblig'd by our reason to add a new doubt derivd from thepossibility of error in the estimation we make of the truth andfidelity of our faculties. ... When I reflect on the naturalfallibility of my judgment, I have less confidence in mvopinions, than when I only consider the objects co.,."rni.,i

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which I reason; and when I prweed still farther, to turn thescrutiny against every successiveestimabion I make of myfaculties, all the rules oflogic require a continual diminution,and at last a total extinction ofbeliefand evidence. T 182-183)In short, the epistemic meltdown argument works by iterating

subjecfive uncertainty. Employing his faculty of probable, or causal,reasoning, he agent arrives at ajudgement, call t X, in which he placesa given-perhaps even averyhigh-degree of confidence.But, as n theepistemic eak argument, he is invited to reflect, in "historical" terms,upon the judgements he has previously formed through probablereasoning. Was the degree of(less-than-perfect) confidence placed inthose udgements always warranted? Or hasn't it sometimes,perhapsoften, happened that the given degree ofconfidence was mi splaced?If we grant that this lzoshappened--and let us do so-then, Humeclaims, the agent's confidence n X is eroded.But now, says Hume, thereflexivejudgement about the past reliability ofprobabilities is itselfachild of probable reasoning; so the rational agent must re-apply theargument to j/ , thereby reducing his confidence n it and reducing,consequently,still furtherhis confidencein X. This setsup, says Morris,"a vicious infinite regress of assessments of assessments."'o Morrisclearly approves of Hume's argument and defends it in his paperagainst criticisms by Fogelin.leI, however, agree with Fogelin that the argument is a morass. Ofthe many things that might be said about it , I will here content myselfwith only one, and not the deepest one by any means . It seems o melhat euen f ue buy into Hume's trich of iterotion-a move that might,weil be resisted-we do not get the epistemic meltdown claimed byHume and Morris. For there is no reason to think that this iterationmust always result in the ercsinn, rather than the strengthening, ofconfidence.It is a characteristic ofprobable or causal reasoning that it can betroined. This is a point emphasized by Hume himself in the text:

Tis certain a man of solid senseand long experience ought tohave, and usually has, a greater assurance in his opinions,than one hat is foolish and ignorant, and that our sentimentshave different degrees of authority, even with ourseives, inproportion to the degreesofour reason and experience. T 182)Suppose, then, that I, as a man of solid sense and long experience,arrive by probable reasoning at a udgement in which I piacea certaindegreeof confidence.Now you ask me whether I don't sometimes placethe wrong degreeofconfidence n probabilities, and I confess hat I do.

UPIS'I'Lj1!I U , - A U r - rr v u r , r , vv'Ihis granted, you ask me whether that doesn't reduce my confidencein the presentjudgenrent.My response s, no: " lt{y dear sir," sa y I, "Irareiy err, and rvhen do, t 's as often n piacing oo itt le coniidencenmy judgement as in placing tu; much. This being so, your observationdoes not lead me in any wise to leduce the confidence I place in myjudgement, even if it increases my doubt that I have placed ust theright amount of confidencen it."

If this response e ust, as I think it i s, then it is Hume's terationargument that comes o nothing, rather than our beliefs.The argunrentcan oniy work if rveassume that the errors which rvemake in placir.rga given degreeof conlidence n our probable udgements are more of'tenthan not on the side of over-confidence-but this assumption, for onewith a wel l - t ra ined facu l ty of probable reasort ing, s en t i re )yunwarranted.TV.My conclusion s that I still seeno way, despite \Iorris'admirable andhe)pful paper, to understand Hume's arguments in the chapter, "Ofscepticism with regard to reason," as successful.As I share with Nlorrisa commitment bo constructiv e exegesis, am saddene d by this, for tome it means that I am aboubas far as ever from understanding Humeon bhesepoints. Could Hume really have argrred so badly? Could hehave overlooked such obvious errors and contradicted himself soglaringly? I doubt it. {nd since Morris has shorvn us how intimate)yth e chapter on sce^.t icisnr with regard to reason is related tofundamental lines of thought in th e Treofise,2o he matter is all themore pressing. I therefore hope that in future rvork lvlorris, or someother fellow adherent of constructive exegesis,can set me on tl-re ightpath.Uniuersity of Iceland

1. I would like to thank Eyj6lfur l{;-alar Emilsson of the University ofIceland and Daniel It{. Farrell of the Ohio State University forcarefully reading my text and rlaking helpful suggestions, JohnBiro of the Ur'riversity of Florida for some brief but usefulcomments, \{ary Connor of the University of Pittsburgh for typingmy manuscript, the organizers of the 15th Hume Srrc ietyCongressfor inviting me to comment on Morris' paper (see n. 2), and thervaitress n the beer garden at Damiihle in l\'Iarburg ibr her moralsupport.

2. Wili iam Edward Morris, "Hume's Scepticism About Reason,"Hume Studies 15.1 (April 1989): 39-60, hereafter styled nlorris'.

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MIKAEL M. KARLSSONMorris'paperwaspresented s he keynote lenaryaddress t the15thHunreSocietyCongress,eld n Marburg,WestGermany, nAugust 5- 8,1988, ndsubsequentlyublished,irtuallywithoutchanges,n Hume Studies.I wasgiven he honor of commentingon Morris'paperat the Marburg congress, nd the presentpieceis the text of my commentary,with some ight editorial changesand relevantnotes. n a footnote o the publishedversionofhispaper,Morris verykindly records is regrets hat "this paper, nits present orm, cannot ncorporate the interesting and helpfulremarks ofmy commentator,Mikael Karlsson."For that omission,readersof f umeS ud,i sshould know, I haveonly myself o blame,for Morris never received my comments n writing; thus, it isespeciallygenerous f him to mentionme n his foobnote.DavidHume,A Tleatise f Human Nafure,ed. L. A. Selby-Bigge,2d ed., ev.,ed.P. H. Nidditch Odord,1978), 80-8?. his editionof the Tlrectises used thmughout for purposesof referenceandquotation.Further references"T-)aregiven n parentheseswithinthe text and notes, ollowing the generalpractice ofthisjournal.SeeMorris,39.For his purpose, fcourse,he correctness'ofatext s, n general,not to be measured against the standard of the knowledgeavailableo us but against hat ofthe knowledge vailable o theauthor.When I wrote this, I had not read the introduction to MichaelFrede's ssoy n AncientPhilosophylvltnneapolis,g8?), x-:orvii,which provides ome aluable nsights nto that which here call"constructiveexegesis." am grateful to E$6lfur Kjalar Emiissonfor calling my attention to Frede'spiece,which I commend o theinterestedeader.Section of Morris'paper s entitled, Is thisHume'sScepticism?";Morris, 53-58. I am very much in agTeementwith Morris,conclusions bout the nature of Hume'sown scepticism,and myremarks shouldnot be readas assumingor implying that Hume'schapters meant o establish strongform fscepticism. owever,as Morris obviousiy realizee (although perhaps some others donot),unless he pivotal argumentsof he chapter-those that I callherein the 'leak" and aneltdown" arguments-work, Hume hasnot establishedis case gainstwhatMorrisstyles intellectualistrationalism."Thisargument T 180-81)s discussedn section ofMorris'paper,"From Knowledge o Probabilit/; Morris, 40-46.This argument T 181-83)s discussedn section of Morris,paper,"From Probability to Nothing"; Morris, 46-b3.

EPISTEMIC ,EAKSAND EPISTEI\{iCN{ELTDO\\TNS

See the Seuenth Set of Objectiorrs o Descartes' Illeclitations, inCharles Adanr and Paul Tannery, eds., Oeuures de Desco.rtes(hereafter 'Ay), 12 vols. (Paris, 1897-1913),?:481, 512. Fo rEnglish translations of these passages, ee: John Cottingham,Robert Stoothoff and Dugald llurdoch, eds. and trans., Th ePhilosctphical Writings of Descartes (hereafter "CSN{"), 2 vols.(Cambridge, 1984-85), 2:324, 349. One account of Descarbes'rotten-apple strateg:y s giverr in my arbicle "Doubt, Reason andCartesian Therapy," which appeared in Michael Hooker, ed.,Descartes:Criticaland Interpretive Essays Baltimore and l,ondon,1978),89-113; eeesp. L07-12.Plato's Theaetetus s a rich source; at 15?e-158d Plato presentsversions based upon madness and dreaming, which are obviousforerunners of Descarles' wcll-known examples from the FirslMeditation. Rotten-apple arguments appear widely in the worksof SextusEmpiricus; se eesp.Outlinesof Pyrrhonism,l.12. Seeand compare D scours ,AT 6 3ZCSM 1 127 Fi r s M edi ation,AT 7:18-21/CSM2:12-14; and Principles, 1.4-5, AT 8:5-6/CSM1:193-94. See also 10?-10 of my article, "Doubt, Reason andCartesian Therapy" (above,n. 10).13. What I think it doesexemplify-without pursuing the matter veryfar here-is the application of an algorithmic procedure, learnedby rote. Rationalists have often tended to think of addition asrational intuition applied analytically to 'number concepts'; husDescartes:

ll]ntuition is the indubitable conception of a clear andattentive mind which proceeds solely fi'om the light ofreason. ... lE]veryone can mentally intuit that he erists,that he s thinking, that a triangle is bounded byjrrstthr eelines, and a sphere by a single surface,an d th e like. ...The self-evidence nd ceriainty ofintLritio n is required notonly for apprehending single prop


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MIKAELM. KARLSSONmundaneexamples hat form the basisof Hume'sargument, orhe speaksof merchantsdoing heir "accompts"T 181), ust asMorris speaksof balancingone'scheckbookMorris, 44-45).Morris,43-45.See any number of recent works on Descartes, ncluding my"f)oubt, Reason nd CartesianTherap/ (above, . 10).Morris, 43. The ref erence s to Robert J. Fogelin, Hume'sSceptici m n thc Tteatiseof Hwnan Naturc (London, 985), 5.17. Morris,45.18 . Morris,48.19. SeeMorris, 49-53.20. SeeMorris, 53-58.

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o f a p p a r e n t l y u n l i m i t e d s c o p e i n t h e p u z z l i n g o p e n i n gs e c t i o n o f B o o k I , P a r t I V o f t h e T r e a t i s e . I H e c l a i m st h a t o u r u s e o f r e a s o n c a n n o t e v e n g e n e r a t e b e l i e f ,mu c h I e s s k n o w l e d q e , Th e a rg u me n t i s g e n e ra l I yre g a rd e d a s e n i g ma t i c i f n o t d o w n r i g h t e mb a r ra s s i n g .M o s t o f h i s r e c e n t i n t e r p r e t e r s , e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e w h os t r e s s ' H u m e ' s n a t u r a l i s m ' , a v o i d t h i s s e c t i o na l t o g e t h e r . 2 Th o s e w h o d o me n t i o n t h e a rg u me n td e s c r i b e i t a s " u n s u c c e s s f u l , " " n o t o r i o u s l y u n c l e a r , "a n d " u n p l e a s a n t . " 3 E v e n a s y mp a t b e t i c re c e n t e x p o s i t o rc a l I s i t a " m o r a s s , " { w h i I e a n o t h e r c o m m e n t a t o r ,o b v i o u s l y l e s s s y mp a t h e t i c , r e g a rd s t h e a rg u me n t a st ' n o t me re l y d e f e c t i v e , b u t o n e o f t h e w o rs t a rg u me n t se v e r t o i m p o s e i t s e l f o n a m a n o f g e n i u s . " 5

T h i s i s u n f o r t u n a t e , f o r H u m e ' s d i s c u s s i o n i n" o f S c e p t i c i s m w i t h R e g a r d t o R e a s o n " f i t s i n t o t h eg e n e ra l s t ru c t u re o f t h e T re a t i s e i n w a y s t h a t n i c e l y" i l l u s t ra t e a nd c o n f i rm" t h e mo re f a m j . l i a r " p re c e d i n gp a r t o f t h l s d i s c o u r s e " ( T 2 5 3 ) . H u m e i n t i m a t e s t h a ti t s h o u l d d o s o a s h e mo v e s t o t h e l a s t s e c t i o n o f B o o kl , w h e re h e re ma rk s t h a t h i s " m i s c e l l a n e o u s $ ra y o fr e a s o n i n g " i n P a r t I V h a s " f u l l y e x p l a i n t d t h e n a t u r eo f o u r j u d g me n t a n d u n d e rs t a n d i n g . " 6 S e c t i o n I o f P a r tI V s h o u l d c o n t a i n a s i g n i f i c a n t p a r t o f t h a t e x p l a n a -t i o n . I n t h i s e s s a y , I s h o w t h a t i t d o e s . o n m yre a d i n g , H u me 's n o t o r i o u s a rg u me n t t u rn s o u t t o b e n o to n l y a n i n t e q r a l p a r t o f h i s p r o j e c t , b u t a s u c c e s s f u lp a r t o f i t a s w e l I . S e c t i o n I v i n d i c a t e s t h e c l a i m sI t h i n k H u me ma d e f o r i t i n h i s A b s t ra c t ? o f t h eT r e a t i s e , t h a t i t

g i v e I s ] u s a n o t i o n o f t h e i mp e r -f e c t i o n s an d n a r ro w l i m i t s o f h u ma n

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4 0u n d e rs t a n d i n g . A l mo s t a l I r e a s o n i n gi s t h e re re d u c e d t o e x pe r i e n c e ; a n dt h e b e l l e t , w h i c h a t t e n d s e x p e r i e n c e ,i s e x p l a i n e d to b e n o t h i n g b u t a p e c u -l i a r s e n t i m e n t , o r l i v e l y c o n c e p t l o np r o d u c e d b y h a b i t . ( A 6 5 7 )

l . F ro m K n o w l e d q e t o P ro b a b i l i t yH u me 's a rg u me n t b e g i n s a b ru p t l y : " I n a l I

d e mo n s t ra t i v e s c i e n c e s t h e ru l e s a re c e r t a i n a n di n f a l l i b l e ; b u t w h e n w e a p p l y t h e m , o u r f a l l i b l e a n du n c e r t a i n f a c u l t i e s a r e v e r y a p t t o d e p a r t f r o m t h e m ,a n d f a l l i n t o e r r o r " ( T 1 8 0 ) . T h i s a n n o u n c e s t h a tt h e a rg u me n t ' g f o c u s i s n o t on t he p ro o f p ro c e d u re s o ft he " d e mo n s t ra t i v e s c i e n c e s " t h e ms e l v e s , b u t ra t h e r o nt h o s e w h o u s e t h e m i n h o p e s o f a c q u i r i n g k n o n l e d g e .H u m e r e m i n d s u s o f o u r f a l l i b i l i t y , w h i c h w e r a r e l yc o n s i d e r w h e n o u r c o n c e rn i s d e mo n s t ra t i v e re a s o n i n g .B u t a s r a t i o n a l l y r e f l e c t i v e e p i s t e m i c a g e n t s , 8 w es h o u l d t a k e o u r f a l l i b i l i t y i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n w h e n -e v e r w e p ro d u c e a p ro o f . W e o u g h t t o c o n s i d e r n o to n l y t h e s t a t u s o f t h e r u l e s o f p r o o f , w e s h o u l d a l s oa s s e s s o u r a b i l i t y t o a p p l y t h e r u l e s c o r r e c t l y .

To re m i n d o u rs e l v e s o f o u r i n t e l I e c t u a li n f i r m i t i e s , w e s h o u l d t r y t o " e n l a r g e o u r v i e w t oc o mp re h e n d a k i n d o f h i s t o ry o f a l I t h e i n s t a n c e s ,w h e r e i n o u r u n d e r s t a n d i n g h a s d e c e i v ' d u s . . . " ( Tf 8 0 ) . W e s h o u l d re c a l l t h o s e p a s t t l me s w h e n w et h o u g h t w e h a d p ro v e d s o me t h i n g a n d w e re w ro n g . Th i ss h o u l d l e a d u s t o b e l e s s c o n f i d e n t t h a t w e h a v e , o na n y p a r t i c u l a r o c c a s i o n , a c t u a l l y p r o d u c e d a p r o o f .A s r a t i o n a l l y r e f l e c t i v e e p i s t e m i c a g e n t s , w e w i l l - -o r s h o u l d - - n o t b e c o n t e n t t o r e s t w i t h o u r i n i t i a lc o n f i d e n c e . W e s h o u l d i n s t e a d " . . . f o r m a n e w j u d g -me n t , as a c h e c k o r c o n t ro u l o n o u r f i r s t j u d g me n t o rb e l i e f " ( T 1 8 0 .

4 1Th i s " n e w j u d g me n t , ' s h o u l d a l s o c o n v i n c e u s t o

b a c k o f f f r o m o u r o r i g i n a l c o n f i d e n t c l a i m t ok n o w l e d g e . W e m u s t r e a l i z e t h a t t h e e x e r c i s e o f r e a s o na l o n e d o e s n o t i n s u r e i t s s u c c e s s . E v e n i f t h e r e i sn o t h i n g w r o n g w i t h o u r f a c u l t y o f r e a s o n a s s u c h ,t h e re a r e o t h e r f a c t o rs w h i c h c a n a nd s o me t i me s doi n t e r v e n e t o f l a w t h e r e s u l t . W e a r e n o t g u a r a n t e e dt ru t h o r k n o w l e d g e j u s t b e c a u s e t he o b j e c t s o f o u ri n g u i r y a r e i n t h e r e a l m o f t h e d e m o n s t r a t i v e . I n s t e a d

I o u r ] r e a s o n m u s t b e c o n s i d e r , d a s ak i n d o f c a u s e , o f w h i c h t r u t h i s t h en a t u r a l e f f e c t ; b u t s u c h - a - o n e a s b yt h e i r r u p t i o n o f o t h e r c a u s e s , a n d b yt he i n c o n s t a n c y o f o u r me n t a l p o w e rs rm a y f r e q u e n t l y b e p r e v e n t e d . ( T I g O ) ,A p e r f e c t i n t e l Le c t rn i g h t e mp l o y a s e t o f ru l e si n f a l l i b l y . W e a r e n ' t a n d d o n ' t . S o w e s h o u l d o n l yr e g a r d i t a s l i k e l v t h a t o u r c a l c u l a t i o n s h a v ep r o d u c e d a p r o o f . l 0 l t e m i g h t j u s t i f i a b l y b e m o r ec o n f i d e n t w i t h s i mp l e an d f a m i l i a r p ro o f s t h a n w e a rew i t h c o m p l e x n e w o n e s . W e m a y r e a l i z e t h a t w e a r er e l i a b l e p r o v e r s i n s o m e c i r c u m s t a n c e s a n d u n r e l i a b l el n o t h e r s . B u t a l l t h i s c o n c e r n s h o w l i k e l v w e a r e t ob e c o r r e c t , I f n e a c c e p t o u r f a l l i b i l i t y a n d r e m e m b e ro u r p a s t f a i l u re s , t h e n no ma t t e r h o w c o n f i d e n t v r ere ma i n w h e n w e h a v e re v i e w e d t h e p o s s i b l e s o u rc e s o fe r ro r , w e h a v e me re l y i n c re a s e d o ur a s s e s s me n t o f t h ep r o b a b i l i t v t h a t w e a r e r i g h t a f t e r a l l . I t r e m a i n sa p ro b a b i l i t y , an d as s u c h c a n n o t p ro d u c e k n o w l e d g e .S o ,

't

i

t

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I b ] y t h i s me a n s a l l k n o w l e d g e d e g e n e r -a t e s i n t o p r o b a b i l i t y ; a n d t h i s p r o b a -b i l i t y i s g r e a t e r o r l e s s , a c c o r d i n gt o o u r e x p e r i e n c e o f t h e v e r a c i t y o rd e c e i t f u l n e s s o f ou r u n d e rs t a n d i n g ,a n d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e s i r n p l i c i t y o ri n t r i c a c y o f t h e q u e s t i o n . ( T I g O )


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4 2Th i s ma y s e e m a n i n c re d i b l e re s u l t , a n d o n e a c h i e v e da l l t o o g u i c k l y . H u m e s e e m s a w a r e o f t h i s . H i s n e x tt w o p a ra g ra p h s s u p p l e me n t t h i s s t a t e me n t o f t h ea rg u me n t .

F i r s t h e a s k s u s t o l o o k a t w h a t e x p e r t s i nd e m o n s t r a t i o n d o . T h e i r b e h a v i o r c o n f i r m s t h e r e f l e c -t i v e r e c o g n i t i o n o f o u r f a l l i b i l i t y t h a t H u m e t h i n k si s r e q u i r e d o f u s a s r a t i o n a l l y r e f l e c t i v e e p i s t e m i ca g e n t s . f { a t h e m a t i c i a n s , f o r i n s t a n c e , s u r e l y e x p e r t sa t d e m o n s t r a t i o n i f a n y o n e i s , d o n ' t p l a c e c o m p l e t ec o n f i d e n c e i n a p r o o f t h e y ' v e j u s t c o n s t r u c t e d o f s o m ep r e v i o u s l y u n k n o w n r e s u l t . I n s t e a d , t h e y w i s e l yr e g a r d t h e i r p r o o f a s " a m e r e p r o b a b i l i t y ' , ( T l g 0 ) .T h e n t h e y c h e c k i t t h e m s e l v e s , g e t t h e i r c o l l e a g u e s t or e a d i t , a n d f i n a l l y s u b m i t i t t o a j o u r n a l , w h e r e i ti s e x p o s e d t o t h e s c r u t i n y o f t h e e n t i r e m a t h e m a t i c a lc o mmu n i t y . A s t he p ro o f p a s s e s t h ro u g h e a c h s u c c e s -s i v e s t a g e o f t h i s r e v i e w p r o c e s s , t h e m a t h e m a t i c i a nr i q rh t l y b e c o me s mo re c o n f i d e n t i n h i s re s u l t , B u tt h e r e i s a l w a y s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t f u r t h e r r e v i e wm i g h t d i s c o v e r a f l a w i n t h e p r o o f . A f t e r a l l , t h eh i s t o r y o f m a t h e m a t i c s i s f i l l e d w i t h s u c h e p i s o d e s .5 o e v e n t h e m a t h e m a t i c i a n ' s , , g r a d u a l e n c r e a s e o fa s s u ra n c e i s n o t h i n g b u t t h e a d d i t i o n o f n ew p ro b a b i l -i t i e s " ( T 1 8 0 ) . H i s c o n f i d e n c e " i s d e r i v ' d f r o m t h ec o n s t a n t u n l o n o f c a u s e s a n d e f f e c t s , a c c o rd i n g t op a s t e x p e r i e n c e an d o b s e rv a t i o n " (T l , g O - l g f ) . Th i sc o n t i d e n c e m ay q u e l l th e ma t h e ma t i c i a n ' s d o u b t s a b o u th i s p ro o f , bu t i t c a n n o t g i v e h i m k n o w l e d g e . Th es o u rc e o f h i s c e r t a i n t y i s e n o u g h t o s h o w t h a t .

T h e m a t h e m a t i c i a n ' s a t t i t u d e d o e s n , t j u s tre f l e c t t h e n e u ro t i c s k i t t i s h n e s s o f a c a d e mi c s . E v e nt h o s e w h o m u s t a c t f r o m c a l c u l a t i o n s i n p r a c t i c a lma t t e rs a c c o u n t a n t s , f o r i n s t a n c e re c o g n i z e

4 3t h e i r f a l l i b i l i t y , e s p e c i a l l y " i n a c c o m P t s o f a n yl e n g t h o r i m p o r t a n c e " ( T 1 8 1 ) . l l T h e s a m e i s t r u e o ft h e re a s o n a b l e p e rs o n f a c e d w i t h o rd i n a ry c a l c u l a t i o n si n e v e r y d a y l i f e , e s p e c i a l l y w h e r e t h e y a r e l o n g a n dd i f f i c u l t , o r w h e r e t h e s u b j e c t ' s s t a t e i s l e s s t h a no p t i ma l , o r w h e re t h e c i r c u ms t a n c e s a re u n p l e a s a n t o rd i s t r a c t i n g .

On e mi g h t o b j e c t a t t h i s p o i n t t h a t , i n v e rys i m p l e c a s e s , i n t h e b e s t o f c i r c u m s t a n c e s ' o n e s i m p l yl n t u i t s t h e r e s u l t w i t h o u t a n y n e e d f o r c a l c u l a t i n g .S u r e l y t h i s c a n y i e l d k n o w l e d g e . A n d i f t h i s i sp o s s i b l e i n t h e s i m p l e a r i t h m e t i c a l c a s e s , i t s h o u l da l s o b e p o s s i b l e w h e n e v e r w e d e a l w i t h s i mp l ei n t u i t i o n s o f r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n i d e a s .

F o g e l i n o f f e r s j u s t t h i s r e p l y . H e t h i n k st h a t H u me " i g n o re s t he p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t ou r g ra s p o fa s i mp l e p ro p o s i t i o n c o n c e rn i n g n u mb e rs m ay n o ti n v o l v e c a l c u l a t i o n s a t a l l . . . I s o ] t h e f a l l i b i l i t yt h a t i n f e c t s o u r c a l c u l a t i o n s n e e d n o t t o u c h ou ri n t u i t i v e u n d e r s t a n d i n g " ( F o g e l i n 1 9 8 5 , p . 1 5 ) .

A s s e s s i n g t h i s o b j e c t i o n d e ma n d s t h a t we a l s oa s s e s s i t s a c c o u n t o f w h a t H u me 's a rg u me n t i s 'Fo g e l i n t re a t s i t a s i f H u me w e re c l a i m i n g t h a t i ti s n ' t p o s s i b l e t o d e t e r m i n e w h e r e d e m o n s t r a t i o n s h a d e so f f i n t o i n t u i t i o n , s o t h a t i t i s e g u a l l y i m P o s s i b l et o d e t e rm i n e w h e re p ro b a b i l i t y e n d s an d k n o w l e d g eb e g i n s . Th i s t a k e s t h e a rg u me n t t o b e a v e rs i o n o ft h e S o r i t e s P a r a d o x , a s i f t h e d i f f i c u l t y h e r e w e r ea k i n t o t h a t o f d e t e rm i n i n g w h e n a p i l e o f s a n db e c o m e s a h e a p , o r a t a d p o l e a f r o g .

Hume encourages th is when he says that "b yg r a d u a l l y d i m i n i s h i n g t h e n u m b e r s . . . w e s h a l l f i n d i ti mp ra c t i c a b l e t o s h e w t h e p re c i s e I i m i t s o f k n o w l e d g ea n d o f p r o b a b i I i t y , o r d i s c o v e r t h a t P a r t i c u l a r


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4 4n u mb e r , a t w h i c h t h e o ne e n d s a n d t h e o t h e r b e g i n s "( r r8 r ) .

T h i s d o e s s o u n d l i k e t h e S o r i t e s . B u t t h i sre ma rk q u i c k l y g i v e s w ay t o H u me 's re a l a rg u me n t , H en o t e s t h a t a n y l o n g c a l c u l a t i o n c a n b e b r o k e n d o w ni n t o p a r t s , e a c h i n v o l v i n g " an a d d i t l o n o f t w o s i n g l en u m b e r s " ( r f 8 f ) . l { e m a y r e g a r d t h o s e r a d d i t i o n s ' a si n t u i t i v e . B u t i f w e d o , t h e n w e c a n re g a rd t h ee n t i r e c a l c u l a t i o n a s t h e p r o d u c t o f s u c c e s s i v e i n t u i -t i o n s o f t h e s a m e s o r t . S o i t s h o u l d b e i n t u i t i v e l yc e r t a i n i f a l l i t s e l e m e n t s a r e . B u t t h e o b j e c t o r h a sa l r e a d y a d r n i t t e d t h a t w e a r e l i k e l y t o m a k e m i s t a k e si n l o n g c a l c u l a t i o n s . N o w h e h a s n o r e a s o n f o r g r a n t -i n g t h a t p o i n t , i f c a l c u l a t i o n s t u r n o u t j u s t t o b ev e r y l o n g s t r i n g s o f i n f a l l l b l e i n t u i t i o n s . H i so b j e c t l o n e i t h e r f o rc e s h i m t o d e n y s o me t h i n g h e ha sa l re a d y a d mi t t e d , a nd t o w h i c h a n y re a s o n a b l e p e rs o nn o u l d a g r e e , o r e l s e h e h a s t o a d m i t t h a t t o n g c a l c u -l a t i o n g a r e f a l l i b l e w i t h o u t b e i n g a b l e t o e x p l a i nw h y .

I f w e h a v e k n o w l e d g e a t t h e l e v e l o f i n t u i -t i o n , t h e r e i s n o r o o m f o r p r o b a b i l i t y , s i n c e t h e t w on o t i o n s a r e e x c l u s l v e . O r i f t h e s t r i n g s o f i n t u i -t i o n s w h i c h ma k e u p a d e mo n s t ra t i o n a re f a l l i b l e , a ndt h e i r e l e m e n t s a r e s i m p l y i n t u i t e d , t h e n w e s h o u l d ,c o n t r a r y t o t h e o b j e c t o r ' s c l a i m , a l s o r e g a r d t h e s ei n t u i t i o n s a s f a l l i b l e .

Th i s ma y t e e m i mp l a u s i b l e , y e t w h e n I b a l a n c ern y c h e c k b o o k , t he f i g u re s i n v o l v e d a re a l mo s t a l w a y ss i mp l e s u n s l n c h a i n s . E v e n w h e re t h e y a r e s l i g h t l ym o r e c o m p l e x , t h e y a r e a n a l y z a b l e i n t h i s w a y . y e tI ' m n o t o r l o u s l y f a l l i b l e a b o u t t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e s eo p e r a t i o n s . H y e r r o r s , h o w e v e r , a r e r e d u c i b l e t os i mp l e m i s t a k e s i n v o l v i n g s i n p l e n u mb e rs a nd s i mp l e

4 5o p e r a t i o n s . I b l a m e m y e r r o r s o n d i s t r a c t i o n ' l a c k o fi n t e re s t , c o mp e t i n q i n t e re s t s ' an d my i n a b i I i t y t oh o l d l o n g c h a i n s i n me mo ry i o r a s u f t i c i e n t a mo u n t o ft i m e . T h e s e s o u r c e s o f e r r o r a r e f a m i l i a r ' T h e yn o n e t h e l e ss p ro v i d e a s e r i o u s c h a l I e n g e t o a nyp o s i t i o n w h i c h c l a i m s i n f a l l l b i l i t y f o r o u r ' s i m p l ea d d i t i o n s ' . I f ' s i m p l e a d d i t i o n s ' a r e i n t u i t i o n s 't h e n t h e y a re s i mp l y f a l l i b l e ' E v e n i f t h e re a r e s o mei s o l a t e d c i r c u ms t a n c e s i n w h i c h I c a n b e s u re t h a t Ii n f a l l i b l y i n t u i t a ' s i m p l e a d d i t i o n " t h i s w o n ' th e l p m e i n e x p l a i n i n g my c o n t i d e n c e i n t t re re s u l t s o f' t h e d e m o n s t r a t i v e s c i e n c e s " I c a n t t g e n e r a l i z e f r o mt h o s e s p e c i a l c i r c u ms t a n c e s t o a I l t h e ma t h e ma t i c a la n d s c i e n t i f i c d e m o n s t r a t i o n s I n o w a c c e p t ' I s o l a t e di n t u i t i o n s w i l l n o t p r o v i d e a n i n t e r e s t i n g o r i m p o r -t a n t c a t e g o rY o f t h i n g s I k n o w '

I n a d d i t i o n , I ma y be w ro n g i n my a s g e s s me n to f b a c k g r o u n d f e a t u r e s , o r o f m y d e g r e e o f c o n c e n -t r a t i o n a t t h e t i m e ' I m a y c l a i m c e r t a i n t y n o t o n l yb e c a u s e o f m y c a l c u l a t i o n b u t a l s o b e c a u s e o f m ye v a l u a t i o n o f t he c i r c u mg t a n c e s i n v o l v e d a n d m ya t t i t u d e i n t h o s e c i r c u ms t a n c e s ' B u t a I I t h a ti n v o l v e s an a s s e s s me n t on my P a r t a b o u t ma n y ma t t e rso f f a c t . s o m y e v a l u a t i o n c a n a t b e s t a t t a i n a h i g hd e g r e e o f p r o b a b i l i t y , n o t k n o w l e d g e ' I f I f a c t o r t h a te l e m e n t i n t o t h e a c c o u n t - - a s s u r e l y I s h o u l d ' i f I ' ma r a t i o n a l l y r e f l e c t i v e e p i s t e m i c a g e n t t h e n ro u g h t t o r e a s s e s s m y c l a i m t o c e r t a i n t y '

F i n a l l y , i t i s m v s t a t e w e a r e a s s e s s i n g ' n o tt h e a b s t ra c t c a l c u l a t i o n ' E v e ry t h i n g d e P e n d s i n t h ee n d u P o n a p a r t i c u l a r s e t o f ma t b e rs o f f a c t a b o u t me 'T h i s d e m a n d s t h a t w e e n d u p i n t h e r e a l m o f p r o b a -b i l i t y , n o m a t t e r h o w c o n f i d e n t e t e a r e i n o u r

a s s e s s -


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{ 5m e n t s . W h i l e w e m a y w e l l h a v e w h a t H u m e c a l l s a'p ro o f ' , H c a n ' t h a v e k n o w l e d g e .

Th i s p ro b a b i l i t y c a n ' t b e c o me k n o w l e d g eb e c a u s e i t i s a b o u t ma t t e rs o f f a c t - - no t a b o u t t h ere l a t i o n s b e t w e e n i d e a s . E v e n i f t h e o r l g i n a l s u b j e c tm a t t e r - - t h e a b s t r a c t c a l c u l a t i o n - - w a s a b o u t r e l a -t i o n s b e t w e e n i d e a s , w h a t i s re l e v a n t fo r t h e q u e s t i o nw h e t h e r w e h a v e k n o w l e dg e i s , f o r H u me , a q u e s t i o n o ff a c t .

Th e a r i t h me t i c a l e x a mp l e s u s e d i n t h i s a r l 1 u -m e n t w e r e p a r a d i g m s o f t h e k n o w l e d g e ' d e m o n s t r a t i v er e a s o n i n g ' i s s u p p o s e d t o y i e l d . T h e s e c a s e s s h o u l dw o r k , i f a n y d o . T h e y d o n ' t . S o H u m e h o l d s t h a t w ec a n a p p l y t h e s e re s u l t s q u i t e g e n e ra l l y . l f h e n w e d o ,h e a rg u e s t h a t w e w i l l s e e t h a t " a l I k n o w l e d g e re d u c e si t s e l f i n t o p ro b a b i l i t y , a nd b e c o me s a t l a s t o f th es a me n a t u re w i t h t h a t e v i d e n c e , w h i c h s e e mp l o y i nc o n rmo n i f e " ( T 1 8 1 ) .

I f t h i s i s c o r r e c t , t h e n r e a s o n ' s r o l e i n' d e mo n s t ra t i v e re a s o n i n g ' i s n o d i f f e re n t f ro m re a s o n -i n g a s i t t i g u re s i n t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o f o rd i n a rye m p i r i c a l b e l i e f . S o " n e m u s t n o w e x a m i n e t h i s l a t t e rs p e c i e s o f re a s o n i n g , a n d a e e o n w h a t f o u n d a t i o n i ts t a n d s " ( T 1 8 1 ) .2 . F ro m P ro b a b i l i t v t o N o t h i n s

A s we s h o u l d e rp e c t , b o t h f ro m t h e e a r l i e rresu l ts o f Book I and the previous argument, when Humet u rn s t o " t h i s l a t t e r s p e c i e s o f re a s o n i n g " h eo b s e rv e s t h a t :

I i ] n e v e ry j u d g me n t , w h i c h w e c a n f o rmc o n c e r n i n g p r o b a b i l i t y , a s w e l l a sc o n c e rn i n g k n o w l e d g e , we o u g h t a l w a y st o c o r r e c t t h e f i r s t j u d g m e n t , d e r i v ' df ro m t h e n a t u re o f t he o b j e c t , bya n o t h e r j u d g me n t , d e r i v ' d f ro m t h e

n a t u r e o fr 8 r - 1 8 2 ) the unders tand ing .( t

Th i s s u mma r i z e s H u me t s a rg u me n t i n t h e l a s t s e c t i o n .Th e w i s e p e rs o n s h o u l d c o r re c t h i s j u d g me n t s a b o u t" t h e n a t u r e o f t h e o b j e c t " - - t h e m a t h e m a t i c a l P r o p o -s i t i o n u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n , f o r i n s t a n c e w i t ha n o t h e r w h i c h r e f l e c t s h i s a s s e s s m e n t o f h i m s e l f a s af a l l i b l e i n t e l l e c t . T h e r e s u l t , a c c o r d i n g t o H u m e , i sa p r o b a b i l i L y a s s e s s m e n t a b o u t a m a t t e r o f f a c t .

I { i t h p ro b a b i l i t y a s s e s s me n t s t h e ms e l v e s t h es i t u a t i o n i s p r e c i s e l y p a r a l l e l . o u r f a l l i b i l i t ya b o u t j u d g m e n t s o f p r o b a b i l i t y i s t h e s o u r c e o f " a n e wu n c e r t a i n t y , d e r i v ' d f r o m t h e w e a k n e s s o f t h a tf a c u l t y , w h i c h j u d g e s " ( T f 8 2 ) . R e f l e c t i o n o n t h e s ef a c t s g i v e s r i s e t oa ne w s p e c i e s o f P ro b a b i I i t Y t oc o r r e c t a n d r e g u l a t e t h e f i r s t , a n df i x i t s j u s t s t a n d a r d a n d p r o p o r t i o n .A s d e m o n s t r a t i o n i s I i a b I e t o t h ec o n t r o u l o f p r o b a b i l i t y , s o i s p r o b a -b i l i t y l i a b l e t o a n e w c o r r e c t i o n b ya r e f l e x a c t o f t h e m i n d , w h e r e i n t h en a t u re o f o u r u n d e rs t a n d i n g , a nd o urr e a s o n i n g f r o m t h e f i r s t p r o b a b i l i t yb e c o m e o u r o b j e c t s . ( T 1 8 2 )B u t t h i s i s n ' t a l l . I f w e a d d o u r q e n e r a l u n c e r t a i n t yi n m a t t e r s o f p r o b a b i t i t y t o t h e s p e c i t i c u n c e r t a i n t yo f an a s s e s s me n t o f p ro b a b i l i t y e f e h a v e j u s t ma d e ,t h e n a s r a t i o n a l l y r e f l e c t i v e e p i s t e m i c a g e n t s ,

w e a r e o b l i g ' d b y o u r r e a s o n t o a d d an e w d o u b t d e r i v ' d f r o m t h e P o s s i b i l i t yo f e r ro r i n t he e s t i ma t i o n w e ma k e o ft h e t r u t h a n d f i d e l i t y o f o u r f a c u l -t i e s . Th i s i s a d o u b t , w h i c h i n u n e d -i a t e l y o c c u r s t o u s , a n d o f t r h i c h , i fw e w o u l d c l o s e l y p u r s u e o u r r e a s o n , w ec a n n o t a v o i d g i v i n g a d e c i s i o n . ( Tr 8 2W e c a n ' t a v o i d a s s e s s i n g t h e a s s e s s m e n t s o f a f a l l i b l ef a c u l t y , w h e n w e t h i n k w e s h o u l d c r i t i c a l l y a s s e s s t h e

4 7


12/18

4 8q u a l i t y o f o u r j u d g m e n t s o f p r o b a b i l i t y . H u m e c l e a r l yt h i n k s t h a t , a s r a t i o n a l l y r e f l e c t i v e e p i s t e m i ca g e n t s , w e a r e o b l i g e d t o d o t h e l a t t e r . B u t i f t h i si s c o r r e c t , l r h y s h o u l d r e f l e c t i v e e v a l u a t i o n o f o u ra b i l i t i e s s t o p t h e r e ? I s n ' t i t m e r e l y a r b i t r a r y t oc l a i m t h a t we s h o u l d a s s e s s o ur j u d g me n t s o f p ro b a -b i l i t y , a n d t o s a y t h a t i t i s u n n e c e s s a r y t o a s s e s so u r a b i l i t y t o m a k e a s s e s s m e n t s o f t h l s k i n d ? S u r e l yi f t h e l a t t e r i s f a l l i b l e , t h e f o r m e r i s a s w e l l , i fn o t m o r e s o . T o s t o p a t t h e f i r s t s t a g e o f a s s e s s m e n ti s s h e e r d o g ma t i s m , a n u D l ra r ra n t e d d e p a r t u re f ro m t h es p i r i t o f r a t i o n a l l y r e t l e c t i v e e p i s t e m i c a g e n c y ,u n l e s s s o me a rg u me n t c an be g i v e n t o s h o w t h a t a s s e s s -m e n t s a t t h a t s t a q e a r e s o m e h o w n f a l l i b l e , A n y s u c ha rg u me n t w o u l d o v e r l o o k t he f a c t t h a t a s s e s s me n t a tt h e s e c o n d s t a g e i s a l s o a b o u t a m a t t e r o f f a c t , a n ds o i s a b o u t a p r o b a b i l i t y . S i n c e w e h a v e n o r i g h t t oc l a i m i n f a l l i b i l i t y t h e r e , n o s u c h a r g u m e n t c o u l dp o s s i b l y s u c c e e d . So we h a v e e v e ry re a s o n , a n d a sr a t i o n a l r e f l e c t i v e e p i s t e m i c a g e n t s , t h e o b l i o a t i o n ,t o c o n t i n u e t o t h e s e c o n d s t a g e o f a s s e s s me n t .

Th i n g s g o ra p i d l y d o w n h i l l f r o m h e re . I f w ea p p l y t h e s e c o n g i d e ra t i o n s t o t he j u d g me n t w e ma k e a tt h e s e c o n d s t a g e o f a s s e s s me n t , w e s h o u l d a l s o a s s e s st h a t j u d g me n t a s a n a s s e s s me n t o f p ro b a b i l i t y . Th i ss e t s up a v i c i o u s i n f i n i t e re g re s s o f a s s e s s me n t s o fa s s e s s m e n t s . W e h a v e n o j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r s t o p p i n gt h e p r o c e d u r e a t a n y p a r t i c u l a r s t a g e . y e t i f w ec o n t i n u e i t , w e c o n t i n u e

t i l l a t l a s t t h e r e r e m a i n n o t h i n g o ft h e o r i g i n a l p r o b a b i l i t y , h o w e v e rg re a t w e m ay s u p p o s e i t t o h a v e b e e n ,a n d h o w e v e r s ma l l t he d i m i n u t i o n bye v e r y n e w u n c e r t a i n t y . N o f i n i t eo b j e c t ca n s u b s i s t u n d e r a d e c re a s ere p e a t e d i n i n f i n i t u m i a n d e v e n t h ev a s t e s t q u a n t i t y , w h i c h c a n e n t e r i n t o

4 9h u ma n i ma g i n a t i o n , mu s t i n t h i s ma n n e rb e r e d u c ' d t o n o t h i n g . L e t o u r f i r s tb e l i e f b e n e v e r s o s t r o n g , i t m u s ti n f a l l i b l y p e r i s h b y p a s s i n g t h r o ' s oma n y ne w e x a mi n a t i o n s , o f w h i c h e a c hd i m i n i s h e s s o me w h a t o f i t s f o rc e a ndv i s o u r . ( T r 8 2 - r s 3 )

I f w e a r e r e a s o n a b l e , t h e n , w e a r e c o m m i t t e d t oa s s e s s i n g e v e r y a s s e s s m e n t o f p r o b a b i l i t y w e m a k e i nt h e l i g h t o f o u r r e a l i z a t i o n t h a t w e a r e h i g h l y f a l -I i b l e a s s e s s o r s . E a c h s t a g e o f t h i s i t e r a t e d p r o c e s s ,H u me ma i n t a i n s , c a n n o t bu t l e s s e n ou r c o n f i d e n c e i nt h e o r i g i n a l b e l i e f :

W h e n I r e f l e c t o n t h e n a t u r a l f a l l i -b i l i t y o f m y j u d g m e n t , I h a v e l e s sc o n f i d e n c e i n my o p i n i o n s , t h a n w h e nI o n l y c o n s i d e r t h e o b j e c t s c o n c e r n i n gw h i c h I re a s o n ; an d w h e n I p ro c e e ds t i l i f a r t h e r , t o t u r n t h e s c r u t i n Ya g a i n s t e v e r y s u c c e s s i v e e s t i m a t i o n Im a k e o f m y f a c u l t i e s , a l l t h e r u l e s o fl o g i c r e q u i r e a c o n t i n u a l d i m i n u t i o n ,a n d a t I a s t a t o t a l e x t i n c t i o n o fb e l i e f a n d e v i d e n c e . ( T f 8 3 )T h i s i s a r e m a r k a b l e , i f n o t o u t r a g e o u s ,

c o n c l u s i o n . F o g e l i n d e s c r i b e s i t a s a " m o r a s s " ' H ea r g u e s t h a t t h e c a s e f o r i t i s , a t b e s t , i n c o m p l e t e :"I f we pre ! !E iene , ! - l )L grant th e genera l fo rm of thea r g u m e n t , w e c a n s t i l l n o t i c e t h a t a n i m p o r t a n t s t e pi s m i s s i n g . . . i t mu s t b e s h o w n t h a t t h o s e d i m i n u t i o n sI i n c o n f i d e n c e a b o u t m y p r o b a b i ] i s t i c o p i n i o n s l d o n o ta p p r o a c h z e r o a s a l i m i t " ( F o g e l i n 1 9 8 5 , p ' 1 7 ) .

Fo g e l i n ' s p o i n t s e e ms t o b e t h a t H u me h a s n o tp r o v e d t h a t a l l o p i n i o n w i l l b e r e d u c e d t o ' n o t h i n g 'u n l e s s h e c a n r u l e o u t t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y . W h i l e t h i si s t r u e , F o g e l i n g i v e s u s n o r e a s o n w h a t s o e v e r t ot h i n k t h a t o u r c o n f i d e n c e l e v e l w o u l d n o t i n f a c tg r a d u a l l y d i m i n i s h t o t o t a l e x t i n c t i o n ' I n s t e a d , h ec o n t i n u e s :


13/18

5 0H u m e d o e s n o t a n t i c i p a t e t h i s o b j e c -t i o n b u t h e n e e d o n l y a r g u et h a t t h e re i s s o me d e g re e o f p ro b a -b i l i t y b e l o w w h i c h t h e c h a n c e o f e r r o rn e v e r f a l l s . , . . w e w l l l b e i n ap e r i l o u s s t a t e i f o u r o n l y r e p l yd e p e n d s u p o n re j e c t i n g a ny s u c hm i n i m a l d e g r e e o f p o s s i b l e e r r o r .( r o g e l i n 1 9 8 5 , p . 1 Z

F o g e l i n i s c o r r e c t t o s a y t h a t H u m e c o u l d b l o c k t h i so b j e c t i o n b y h o l d i n g t h a t t h e r e i s s o m e d e g r e e o fp r o b a b i l i t y b e l o w w h i c h t h e c h a n c e o f e r r o r n e v e rf a l l s . H e i s a l s o c o r r e c t t o s a y t h a t r e j e c t i n g a n ys u c h c l a i m w o u l d s m a c k o f a r b i t r a r i n e s s . S o i td o e s n ' t p r o v i d e a s a t i s f a c t o r y r e p l y t o t h e o r i g i n a lo b j e c t i o n . T h e q u e s t i o n i s w h e t h e r H u m e n e e d s a n ys u c h r e p l y , I s t h e r e t h e s e r i o u s g a p F o g e l i n c l a i m st o f i n d i n H u me 's a rg u me n t ?

I t h i n k n o t . A s I w o r k t h r o u g h t h e i t e r a t e da s s e s s m e n t s o f m y p r o b a b i l i t y c l a i m , a n d r e c o g n i z et h a t w i t h e a c h s t e p t h e p r o b a b i I i t y t h a t I ' v ec o r r e c t l y a s s e s s e d t h e o r i g i n a l p r o p o s i t i o n d i m i n -i s h e s , s o s h o u l d m y c o n f i d e n c e , o r t h e s t r e n g t h w i t hw h i c h I h o l d t h e b e l i e f , d i m i n i s h . A s i t d o e s , rb e g i n t o t h i n k t h a t t h e l i k e l i h o o d t h a t t h e o p p o s i n sb e l i e f t h e n e g a t i o n o f t h a t b e l i e f i s t r u el n c r e a s e s . " B u t I c a n - - a n d s h o u l d , a s a r a t i o n a l l yre f l e c t i v e e p i s t e m i c a g e n t a p p l y t he s a me a rg u -m e n t s I a p p l i e d t o m y o r i g i n a l a s s e s s m e n t s t o t h a ta s s e s s m e n t . E v e n t u a l l y , c o n f u s i o n r e i g n s . I h a v e n os u b s t a n t i a l r e a s o n f o r b e l i e v i n g t h a t e i t h e r i sc o r r e c t . I f I a m r e a s o n a b l e , I w i l l s u s p e n dj u d g me n t . B u t t h a t i s j u s t w h a t i t i s t o re d u c e ab e l i e f t o ' n o t h i n g ' .

T h i s a r g u m e n t i s p e r f e c t l y g e n e r a l . I f Ia s s e s s m y p r o b a b i l i s t i c j u d g m e n t s a s a r e f l e c t i v e a n dr e a s o n a b l e a g e n t , I ' l l e v e n t u a l l y h a v e n o r e a l c o n f i -

5 ld e n c e i n a n y o f t h e m . A s a r a t i o n a l I y r e f I e c t i v ee p i s t e m i c a g e n t , I s h o u l d h a v e n o b e l i e f s a t a l l '

- T h e r e i s a n o t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n w h i c h , t o g e t h e rw i t h t h e p r e v i o u s P o i n t , d r a w s t h e t e e t h o f F o g e l i n ' sc o mp l a i n t . S u p p o s e t he s c e n a r i o I d e s c r i b e d

i n t h el a s t p a r a g r a p h d o e s n ' t h a p p e n . W i t h e a c h a s s e s s m e n t a li t e r a t i o n m y e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e p r o b a b i l i t y , a n d m yc o n f i d e n c e l e v e l , g o d o w n . B u t t h e y d o n ' t g o a l l t h ew a y t o z e Y o i t h e y a p p r o a c h z e r o a s y m p t o t i c a l l y ' a s aI i m i t . F i n e . G i v e n t h e w a y H u m e p r e s e n t s h i s a r g u -m e n t , t h e r e i s n o n o n - a r b i t r a r y e n d t o t h e s t a g e s o fi t e r a t e d a s s e s s m e n t I ' m o b l i g e d a s a r a t i o n a l l yr e f l e c t i v e e p i s t e m i c a g e n t t o g o t h r o u g h ' M y a s s e s s -m e n t s h o u l d n e v e r c o n c l u d e . I m u s t a l w a y s k e e pre a s s e s s i n g , a nd p re s u ma b l y s h o u l d w i t h h o l d j u d g n e n tu n t i l t h e t e s t i n q p r o c e d u r e e n d s . B u t h e r e i t n e v e rd o e s . I ' m n e v e r w a r r a n t e d i n b e l i e v i n g , s o I n e v e rb e l i e v e . l ' l e a n w h i e , my c o n f i d e n c e I e v e l d e c re a s e sw i t h e a c h f u r t h e r a s s e s s m e n t .

F o g e l i n , h o w e v e r , d o e s n ' t I i n g e r o v e r t h i sa rg u me n t . H e mo v e s o n t o ma i n t a i n t h a t "w e c a n ge ta b e t t e r g ra s p o f H u me 's a rg u me n t - - a nd t h u s s ee w h a ti s w r o n g w i t h i t - - b y a s k i n g t h e f o l l o w i n g q u e s t i o n :e x a c t l y h o w d o e s t h e d i m i n u t i o n i n p r o b a b i l i t y t a k ep l a c e ? " ( 1 9 8 5 , p ' f ? ) H e s u m m a r i z e s w h a t h e t h i n k si s H u m e ' s a r g u m e n t t h i s w a Y :' W e ma k e a n a s s e s s me n t o f t he p ro b a -b i l i t y o f o u r b e i n g c o r r e c t i n ( s a y )a n a d d i t i o n . T h i s c l a i m i s i t s e l f ap r o b a b i l i s t i c j u d g m e n t ; w e n e e d t ol s s i g n a P r o b a b i l i t Y t o i t a s w e l l 'W e m i g h t m a i n t a i n t h a t t h e p r o b a b i l i t yi s e x t r a o r d i n a r i l Y h i g h , b u t t h i sc o n c e d e s H u m e ' s p o i n t . H o w e v e r h i g hi t i s , i t d o e s n o t a m o u n t t o c e r t a i n -

t y . H u m e ' s n e x t P o i n t i s t h a t t h e s ec o n s i d e ra t i o n s mu s t l e a d us t o l o w e rt h e p r o b a b i l i t y a s s i g n m e n t g i v e n t ot h e o r i g i n a l P r o P o s i t i o n . T h i s ,


14/18

5 2h o w e v e r , i s s i m p l y w r o n g . H o w e v e ru n c e r t a i n w e a r e a b o u t o u r a b i l i t y t oc a l c u l a t e p r o b a b i l i t i e s , i f a p r o p o s i *t i o n h a s a c e r t a i n p r o b a b i l i I y , t h a t( t a u t o l o g i c a l l y ) i s t h e p r o b a b i j i t v i th a s . ( F o s e l i n I 9 8 5 , p . i g l

I f H u m e w e r e c l a i m i n g w h a t F o g e l i n h a s h i m s a y i n g h e r e- - t h a t r e f l e c t i n g o n o u r a b i l i t y t o a s s e s s p r o b a b i l i _t i e s c h a n g e s t h e o b j e c t i v e p r o b a b i l i t y a p r o p o s i t i o nh a s - - h e w o u l d i n d e e d b e w r o n g . B u t h e i s n o t c l a i m _i n 9 t h i s . I t i s m y c o n f i d e n c e i n h a v i n g c o r r e c t l ya s s e s s e d t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t H u m e c r a i m s s h o u l dc h a n g e . H i s r e g r e s s i s d e s i g n e d t o f u r t h e r e r o d e m yc o n f i d e n c e a s t h e a s s e s s m e n t s i t e r a t e .S u p p o s e I ' m c o n f i d e n t t h a t J o h n w i l l c o m e t oou r F r i d a y s e m i n a r . H e u s u a l I y a t t e n d s , i n f o rmss o m e o n e b e f o r e h a n d w h e n h e c a n , t a t t e n d , h a s s a i d t h a th e p l a n s t o c o m e , a n d s o o n . I b e l i e v e h e w i l l c o m e .Th i s j u d g me n t i s f o r H u me a j u d g me n t o f p ro b a b i l i t y _- f o r i t i s a g u e s t i o n a b o u t a p a r t i c u l a r m a t t e r o tf a c t - - s o i t i s n o t a q u e s t i o n o f w h e t h e r I k n o w t h a th e w i l l c o m e .I n a r e f l e c t i v e m o o d , I l o o k a t t h e g r o u n d sf o r m y c o n f i d e n c e t h a t h e w i l l a t t e n d . I r e c a l l t h a tI ' v e m a d e a s s e s s m e n t s o f t h i s k i n d i n t h e p a s t , a n d

n e g l e c t e d , t h r o u g h c a r e l e s s n e s s , i n a t t e n t i o n , o ri g n o r a n c e , t o i n c l u d e t a c t o r s r e l e v a n t t o a c c u r a t e l ya s s e s s i n g t h e p r o b a b i l i t y . I t h e n b e c o m e l e s s c o n t i -d e n t t h a t I ' v e a s s e s s e d t h e p r o b a b i l i t y c o r r e c t l y .T h e n I r e f l e c t o n t h i s j u d g m e n t . I t i s a p r o b a b i l i t ya s s e s s m e n t a s w e l I . E v e n i f I , m c o n f i d e n t t h a t I , mre a s o n i n g c o r re c t l y i n ma k i n g t h i s a s s e s s me n t , r a ma w a r e o f m y f a l l i b i l i t y a b o u t j u d g m e n t s o f t h i s k i n d .P e r h a p s I ' m n e u r o t i c a l l y i n c l u d i n g f a c t o r s t h a t a r ei r r e l e v a n t f o r t h e s a k e o f c o m p l e t e n e s s , a n d s k e w i n gm y j u d g m e n t o f t h e l i k e l i h o o d t h a t m y a s s e s s m e n t i s

5 3c o r r e c t . A n d s o o n . E v e n t u a l t y I d o n ' t k n o w w h a t t ot h i n k . I ' v e mo v e d , j u s t a s l l u me o u t I i n e s , f ro m th ec o n f i d e n t b e l i e f t h a t J o h n w i l l a t t e n d t h e s e m i n a r t on o b e l i e f a t a l l .

N o n e o f t h i s r e f l e c t i o n , h o w e v e r , c h a l l e n g e s -- n o r i n t e n d s t o c h a l l e n g e F o g e l i n ' s p o i n t t h a tt h e r e i s , o b j e c t i v e l y , s o m e p r o b a b i I i t y t h a t t h ep r o p o s i t i o n t h a t J o h n w i l l a t t e n d t h e s e m i n a r h a s 'T h e ' d i m i n u t i o n ' H u m e p o i n t s t o i s t h e l o w e r i n g o f m yc o n f i d e n c e t h a t I h a v e a s s e s s e d t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f t h ep r o p o s i t i o n c o r r e c t l y , w i t h t h e s u b s e q u e n t ' d i m i n u -t i o n ' i n m y t o t a l p r o b a b i l i t y a s s e s s m e n t a t t h ec u r r e n t l e v e l o f i t e r a t i o n . A n d a l t h o u g h h e d o e s n o td e p l o y t h e p o i n t i n t h i s s e c t i o n , i t f o I I o w s f r o mH u me 's g e n e ra l p o s i t i o n t h a t H e c a n n e v e r k n o w - t h eo b j e c t i v e l i k e l i h o o d o f p r o p o s i t i o n s s u c h a s l h e o n ei n q u e s t i o n . We ca n a t b e s t have n o t h i n g mo re t h a na s s e s s m e n t s , b a s e d o n o u r o b s e r v a t i o n s a n d e x p e r i e n c e ,o f b o t h t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f s u c h p r o p o s i t i o n s a n d o ft h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t w e h a v e a s s e s s e r l t h e p r o b a b i l i t yc o r r e c t l y . B u t t h i s o n l y a u g m e n t s t h e f o r c e o f t h er e g r e s s H u m e i s e x p l o i t i n g i ' n t h i s s e c t i o n , i t n e a d dt h a t w e a r e r a t i o n a l l y r e f l e c t i v e e p i s t e m i c a g e n t s '

T h i s a r g u m e n t , d e s p i t e i t s o u t r a g e o u s c o n c l u -s i o n , h as P ro v e n f a r mo re s u b s t a n t i a l an d c o h e re n tt h a n H u m e ' s c r i t i c s s e e m t o t h i n k . I t i s a f o r m i d a b l es c e p t i c a l a r g u m e r r t . 1 3 T h e n e x t q u e s t i o n t o a s k i s ," r s i t H u m e ' s ? "

3 . I s T h i s H u m e ' s S c e P t i c i s m ?M y q u e s t i o n m a y s o u n d p a r a d o x i c a l , i f n o t

a b s u rd . Ho w c a n I be a s k i n g w h e t h e r t h i s a rg u me n t i sH u m e ' s a f t e r d i s c u s s i n g i t t o r s e v e r a l p a g e s a s H u m e ' sa r q u m e n t ? H h a t I a m a s k i n g , h o w e v e r , i s a n a b s o l u t e l y


15/18

5 4c e n t r a l q u e s t i o n a b o u t t h e n a t u r e a n d p u r p o s e o f" H u m e ' s s c e p t i c i s m . " I t h i n k i t i s o n e w h i c h h a s b e e nn e g l e c t e d i n H u m e s t u d i e s , b y t h o s e i n t h e n a t u r a l i s ta n d s c e p t i c a l c a m p s a I i k e .

N a t u r a l i s t s , w e s a w , t y p i c a l l y i g n o r e t h ea r g u m e n t o f I . I V . I , b e c a u s e i t s e e m s n o t t o f i t t h e i rc o n c e p t i o n o f H u me 's p ro g ra mme . A n d Fo g e l i n , t h e mo s tre c e n t an d v o c a l c h a mp i o n o f t h e s c e p t i c a l t e n d e n c i e si n H u me , t a k e s i t a s o b v i o u s t h a t H u me i s a s c e p t i cw h e n h e s e t s o u t t h i s a r g u m e n t . F o r F o g e l i n , H u m e , sp o s i t i o n - - " t h e u n m i t i g a t e d e p i s t e m o l o g i c a l s c e p t i -c i s m h e a c c e p t s " ( I 9 B S , p . 2 O ; 1 4 - - i s t h e s c e p t i c a lp o s i t i o n a b o u b r e a s o n e x p r e s s e d i n t h i s a r g u m e n t . H en e e d n o w t o a s k w h e t h e r t h i s i s r e a l l y t h e c a s e .H u m e , i n t e r e s t i n g l y , a n t i c i p a t e s j u s t t h e s eg u e s t i o n s . D o I , h e a s k s , ' , h o l d t h a t a l l i s u n c e r -t a i n , an d t h a t o u r j u d g me n t i s n o t i n a n y t h i n gp o s s e s t o f a n y m e a s u r e s o f t r u t h a n d f a l s h o o d , ' ( f1 8 3 ) . F r o m w h a t w e h a v e s e e n , i t c e r t a i n l y s o u n d s a si f h e h o l d s j u s t t h a t .

T h i s i m p r e s s i o n i s h a r d l y d i s p e l l e d b y h i s o w ns u rn ma ry o f w h a t he h a s a c c o mp l i s h e d t h u s f a r i nS e c t i o n I :

I h a v e h e r e p r o v ' d , t h a t t h e v e r y s a m ep r i n c i p l e s , w h i c h m a k e u s f o r m ad e c i s i o n u p o n a n y s u b j e c t , a n d c o r r e c tt h a t d e c i s i o n b y t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o fo u r g e n i u s an d c a p a c i t y . a nd o f t hes i t u a t i o n o f o u r m i n d , w h e n w ee x a m i n ' d t h a t s u b j e c t ; I s a y , I h a v ep r o v r d , t h a t t h e s e s a m e p r i n c i p l e s ,w h e n c a r r y ' d f a r t h e r , a n d a p p l y ; d t oe v e ry n e w re f l ex j u d g me n t , mu s t , byc o n t i n u a l l y d i m i n i s h i n g t h e o r i g i n a le v i d e n c e , a t I a s t r e d u c e i t t on o t h i n g , a n d u t t e r l y s u b v e r t a l Ib e l i e f a n d o p i n i o n . ( T 1 8 3 - f 8 4 )f h i s s e e m s t o b e j u s t t h e s c e p t i c a l p o s i t i o n F o g e l i n

a t t r i b u t e s t o H u m e . H o w t h e n c a n H u m e , i n t h e s a m e

5 5

b r e a t h , r e j e c t t h e q u e s t i o n " w h e t h e r I r e a l l y b e o n eo f t h o s e s c e p t i c s " a s " e n t i r e l y s u P e r f l u o u s " ? H u m ee v e n g o e s o n t oc l a i m t h a t n o t o n l y do e s h e n o t h o l dt h e s c e P t i c a l p o s i t i o n ' n o o n e e v e r r e a l l v ( i ' e ', . s i n c e r e l y a n d c o n s t a n t l y r ' ) h e l d i t o r c o u l d 'because

N a t u r e , b y a n a b s o l u t e a n d u n c o n t r o u l -a b l e n e c J s s i t y h a s d e t e r m i n ' d u s t oj u d q e t t " " i i a s t o b re a t t re an d f e e l 'n o r . t t ' " t - " t y * o t t f o r b e a r v i e w i n qc e r t a i n o U i " " [ t i n a s t r o n g e r a n df u l l e r t i g t i t ' u p o n a c c o u n t o f t h e i rc u s t o ma rY - t o n " t i i o n t ' ' i t h a P re s e n ti mP re s s i o n , t h a n w e c a n h i n d e r o u r -= . i " u u t r o m t h i n k i n g a s l o n g a s w e a r ea w a k e , ; ; s e e i n g t h e s u r ro u n d i n gb o d i e s , w h e n w e t u rn o u r ' e y e s t o w a rd st h e m i n b r o a d s u n s h i n e '

( T I 8 3 )Wha t i s g o i n g on h e re ? H u me s e e ms t o h a v e l u rc h e df ro m h i s re p e a t e d b o a s t t h a t he ha s 'p ro v e d ' t h es c e p t i c a l c o n c l u s i o n ' t o t h e v e r y d i f f e r e n t c l a i m t h a tn o on e c o u l d a d o p t t h e p o s i t i o n he h as p ro v e d ' Headds t o t he mo u n t i n g c o n f u s i o n w i t h t h e s e p u z z l i n gremarks :

W h o e v e r h a s t a k e n th e p a i n s t o re f u t et t r e c a v i i s o f t h i s t q t ? l s c e p t i c i s m 'h " " . . " i i y d i s p u t e d w i t h o u t a n a n t a g -o n i s t , a " d t " a t a v o u r ' d ! y a rg u me n t s ' t oe s b a b l i " i t - t l t t " l t y ' s h i c h n a t u re h as" r , t . c e a l ' ' t i Y - l mP t " " t 9 a i n

t h e m i n d '. . r a , u " J " i i i " n a t t o i d a b l e ' ( T r8 3 )r t i s t i m e t o c a l l a h a l t ' T h i s m a k e s l i t t l e

s e n s e i n d e e d u n l e s s w e r e c a l l s o m e o f H u m e t s g e n e r a ls t ra t e g y i n B o o k I o f t he T re a t i s e ' I n th e f a mo u sa rg u me n t o f P a r t I I I a b o u t c a u s a l i n f e re n c e ' H u me 'so b j e c t i s t o d e mo l i s h t h e v i e w t h a t o u r c a u s a l e x P e c t -a t i o n s a r e i n a n y wa y b a s e d o n re a s o n i n g ' Th e " s c e p t -i c a l d o u b t s a b o u t th e o P e ra t i o n s o f t he u n d e rs t a n d i n g "t h a t h e r a i s e s i n t h o s e f a m i l i a r P a s s a g e s a r ec o n c e r n e d n o t t o e s t a b l i s h s c e P t i c i s m p e r s e ' b u t t o


16/18

5 6d e s t r o y a p r e v a l e n t r a t i o n a l i s t o r i n t e l I e c t u a l i s tm o d e l o f t h e w a y t h e m i n d w o r k s . 1 5 H u m e b e l i e v e s t h a tt h e m o d e l i s i n c o h e r e n t , a n d t h a t h i s s c e p t i c a l a r g u -m e n t s s h o w t h i s . I f t h a t m o d e l w e r e t h e o n l y p o s s i b l ea c c o u n t o f t h e o p e r a t i o n s o f t h e m i n d , t h e n s c e p t i c i s mw o u l d b e t r u e . B u t t h e r e i s a n o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e : t h ed e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e a c t u a l o p e r a t i o n s o f t h e m i n d H u m eo u t l i n e s i n h i s p o s i t i v e a c c o u n t o f h o w o u r c a u s a le x p e c t a t i o n s o p e r a t e h i s ' s c e p t i c a l s o l u t i o n ' t ot he s c e p t i c a l d o u b t s h e ra i s e d a b o u t t h e u n d e r -s t a n d i n g .

H u m e ' s a i m s i n I . I v . I a r e p r e c i s e l y p a r a l l e l .H e r e h e i s a t t a c k i n g t h e s a m e i n t e l l e c t u a l i s t m o d e l o ft h e r a t i o n a l l y r e f l e c t i v e e p i s t e m i c a g e n t i n w h a ts h o u l d b e i t s h e a r t l a n d - - t h e r e a l m o f r e l a t i o n s o fi d e a s a nd d e mo n s t ra t i v e a rg u me n t , S e c t i o n I i s a ne x t e n d e d re d u c t i o o f t h i s mo d e l o f t h e m i n d i n t hea r e a w h e r e i t s h o u l d b e s t r o n g e s t . H u m e i s s a y i n gt h a t i f t h i s m o d e l w e r e c o r r e c t , i f w e w e r e r e f l e c t i v er a t i o n a l e p i s t e m i c a g e n t s , t h e n n o t o n l y w o u l d w e k n o wn o t h i n g , w e w o u l d b e u n a b l e t o f o r m a n y b e l i e f s a ta l l ! I f t h e i n t e l l e c t u a l i s t m o d e l a n d s c e p t i c i s m w e r eg e n u i n e l y e x c l u s i v e a l t e r n a t i v e s , t h e n s c e p t i c i s mw o u l d w i n t h e d a y . T he mo d e l c a n n o t w j . t h s t a n d t hes c e p t i c a l a r g u m e n t s i t i n v i t e s ,

F o r t u n a t e l y , t h e r e i s a n o t h e r p o s s i b i I i t y .T h e i n t e l l e c t u a l i s t a n d t h e s c e p t i c s h a r e t h e m o d e l ,b u t d i f f e r a b o u t w h a t i t c a n d e l i v e r e p i s t e m i c a l l y .A s H u me p u t s i t , " t h e s c e p t i c a l a nd d o g ma t i c a l re a s o n sa r e o f t h e s a m e k i n d , t h o ' c o n t r a r y i n t h e i r o p e r a t i o na nd L e n d e n c y " (T l 8? ) . B u t H u me 's . s c e p t i c a l s o l u -t i o n ' t o t h e s e w o r r i e s a b o u t b e l i e f - f o r m a t i o n r e j e c t st h e r n o d e l a s i n c o h e r e n t , t h o u g h n o t f o r t h e s c e p t i c ' sr e a s o n s . H e i s b o t h c l e a r a n d e x p l i c i t a b o u t t h i s :

5 7I f be l i e f . t h e re f o re ' w e ! e - -a s i mp l eu . t o f t h e t h o u g h t ' w i t h o u t an yp e c u l i a r m a n n e r o f c o n c e p t i o n ' o r t h ea d d i t i o n o f a f o r c e a n d v i v a c i t Y ' i t* r r t I i " t . f t l u t y d e s t ro y i t s e l f ' an d i ne v e r y t " * i e r m i n a t e i n a t o t a ls u s p e n s e o f j u d g me n t ' - B u t a s e x p e r -i e n . e w i t t s u f f i c i e n t l y c o n v i n c e a n yo n e , w h o t h i n k s i t w o r t h w h i l e t o t r Y 't - t t . [ t n . ' he c " n f i nd no e r ro r i n t h ef o re g o i n g a rg u me n t s ' Y e : h e s t i l Ic o n t i n u e s t o i e l i e v e ' a n d t h i n k ' a n dr e a s o n a s u s u a l , h e m a y s a f e l Y c o n -" i , r a " , t h a t h i s r e a s o n i n g

a n d b e l i e fi s s o m e s e n s a t i o n o r p e c u l i a r m a n n e ro f c o n c e p t i o n , w h i c h ' t i s - i m p o s s i b l ef o r m e r e i d e a s a n d r e f l e c t i o n s t od e s t r o Y . ( T 1 8 4 ; m Y e m p h a s i s )

B u t r e j e c t i n g t h e m o d e l m e a n s r e j e c t i n g b o t h p o s i -

t i o n s . W e n e e d n e i t h e r b e s c e p t i c sn o r d o g m a t i s t s ' W e

ca n be what we ar e human' But Hume 's argumenth e l p s u s t h r o w o f f s o m e i l l u s i o n s a b o u t w h a t i t i s t ob e h u ma n , a n d a d o p t a mo re re a l i s t i c p i c t u re o f h ow w ea c t , d e c i d e , a n d c o m e t o b e l i e v e ' H u m e ' s ' s c e p t i c a ls o l u t i o n ' t o t h e w o r r i e s a b o u t h o w w e a c t ' d e c i d e ' a n df o r m b e l i e f s i s o f a p i e c e w i t h t h e p o s i t i v e d e s c r i p -t i o n h e g a v e u s i n P a r t I I I ' S o i t i s n o t s u r p r i s i n gt h a t h e u s e s t h e l a n g u a g e o f P a r t I I I t o d e s c r i b e b o t hh i s s o l u t i o n a nd h i s a i ms i n mo u n t i n g t he a rg u me n t o fI . I V , I :

t { y i n t e n t i o n t h e n l n d i s p l a y i n g so" l . J " f f Y t he a rg u me n t s

o f . t h a ti " n t " = t i . s e c t , i s o n l y t o . m a k e - t h e; ; ; ; ; ; s e n s i b l e o f t h e t ru t h o f . mYh y p o t h e s i s , t h a t a l I - o u r - f , 9 e 9 9 n 1 B g E '

T h e r e i s m o r e t oa n o t h e r t i me . H u mee x p l a n a t i o n o f h o w

t h e s t o r y , b u t i t m u s t w a i t f o re n d s S e c t i o n I w i t h a P r o v o c a t i v eh i s p o s i t i v e v i e w a v o id s a n a P P l i -


17/18

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c a t i o n o f t h e s c e p t i c a l r e g r e s s , T h i s , t o o , i s a ni m p o r t a n t p a r t o f h i s a c c o u n t . t t y p u r p o s e i n t h i se s s a y ha s b e e n mo re l i m i t e d . I w a n t e d t o s h o w h o wS e c t i o n I n o t o n l y f i t s w i t h , b u t c o n t r i b u t e s t o ,H u n e ' s g e n e r a l s t r a t e g y i n t h e T r e a t i s e . I f w e e v e ra r e t o u n d e r s t a n d H u m e ' s v l e w o f t h e r o l e o f r e a s o n ,i t s t a n d s t o r e a s o n t h a t w e s h o u l d f i r s t f i g u r e o u th o w t o i n t e g r a t e " O f s c e p t i . c i s m w i t h r e g a r d t o r e a s o n "i n t o t h e p i c t u r e , O n I y t h e n w i l l w e b e r e a d y t o m o v et o a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f H u m e ' s p o s i t i v e v i e w s a b o u tr e a s o n . T h e s e v i e w s a r e t h e l e a s t u n d e r s t o o d o f a n yo f H u m e ' s d o c t r i n e s . G a i n i n g a n a d e q u a t e u n d e r s t a n d i n qo f t h e m i s b o t h t h e m o s t p r e s s i n g a n d t h e m o s t d i f f i -c u l t p r o b l e m f a c i n g H u m e s t u d i e s t o d a y . 1 5

W i l l i a m E d w a r d l t o r r i sU n i v e rs i t y o f C i n c i n n a t i

* @ W i I l i a m E d w a r d M o r r i s , l 9 g 7 .l . T h r o u g h o u t m y r e f e r e n c e s t o t h e T r e a t i s e ( , T , ) w i l lb e t o t h e S e c o n d E d i t i o n , w i t h t e x t r e v i s e d a n dn o t e s b y P . H . N i d d i t c h ( O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y p r e s s ,r 9 ? 8 ) .2 . S e e , f o r e x a m p l e , t h e b o o k s b y N i c h o l a s C a p a l d i( T w a y n e , 1 9 7 5 ) a n d B a r r y S t r o u d ( n o u t l e d g e a n d k e g a nP a u l , 1 9 7 8 ) .3 . I t h a s b e e n s o d e s c r i b e d b y ( i n o r d e r o f q u o t a t i o n s )J o h n P a s s mo re , H u me 's I n t e n t i o n s (C a mb r i d g eU n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 5 2 ) , R i c h a r d D e W i t t . , ' H u m e ' sP r o b a b i l i t y A r g u m e n t , " H u m e S t u d i e s ( l 9 g G ) , a n dT e r e n c e P e n e l h u m , H u m e ( M e t h u e n , l 9 ? g ) .

R o b e r t F o g e l i n , H u m e ' s S c e p t i c i s m i n t h e T r e a t i s e

5 9D . C . S t o v e , P r o b a b i l i t v a n d H u m e ' s I n d u c t i v ei c e p t i c i s m ( o x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 7 3 ) , P a g ef u 2 : : c r " . . i t o u u ' s o p i n i o n o f t h e g u a l i t v o f H u me 'sa r q u m e n t s , i t i s u n c l e a r w h e t h e r S t o v e t a k e s t h e; * i " " t g e n i u s " i mp o s e d u p o n b y t h i s a rg u me n t to beH u m e - o r h i m s e l f !

6 . H u r n e c l e a r l y i s r e f e r r i n g t o a l l o f P a r tI V w i t h

t h i s r e m a r k .7 . A l I re f e re n c e s t o t h e v e rs i o n o f t h e A l s t ra c tp u b l i s h e d i n N i d d i t c h ( f 9 ? 8 ) , a b b r e v i a t e d ' A ' ' w i t hp a g e r e f e r e n c e s i n s e r t e d i n t o t h e t e x t '8 . I u s e t h i s a w k w a rd an d s o me w h a t p re t e n t i o u s p h ra s e 'a s o p p o s e d t o a l t e r n a t i v e s s u c h a s ' C a r t e s i a n ' o r' r a t l o n a l i s t ' , t o m a k e t h e p o i n t t h a t H u m e ' sd i s c u s s i o n i s no t o n } y b a c k w a rd - I o o k i n g , bu tf o r w a r d - I o o k i n g a s w e l I .9 . Fo g e l i n m i s c o n s t ru e s t h e i n t e n t o f t h i s re ma rk ' a s

s h o u l d b e o b v i o u s f r o m w h a t f o l l o w s ' t l e s a y s :" H u m e ' s n e x t m o v e . . . m a y b e n o m o r e P e r s u a s i v e t h a nt h e l a s t , b u t i t i s r e v e l a t o r y o f h i s f u n d a m e n t a la p p ro a c h t o ph i I o s o p h i c a l p ro b l e ms H e i n rn e d i a t e l yo i i . r = a c a i s a l a c c o u n t o f t h i s l i a b i l i t y o f t ' h eh u ma n mi n d - t o f a l l i n t o e r ro r i n i t s d e mo n s t ra t i v er e a s o n i n g . H e r e H u m e ' s n a t u r a l i s t i c c o n c e p t i o n o ft h e m i n d i s c a r r i e d t o t h e s e a t o f r e a s o n " " T h ep l a i n s u g g e s t i o n o f t h i s P a s s a l t e i s t h a t re a s o n i ' n gi t i t " c a u s a l i n f e r e n c e ] i s a n o t h e r n a t u r a l p r o p e n -i i t y " ( F o g e l i n 1 9 8 5 , P . 1 5 ) .

1 0 . H e r e I a m u s i n g ' p r o o f i n t h e o r d i n a r y s e n s e o f' m a t h e m a t i c a l p r o o f ' , n o t i n H u m e ' s t e c h n i c a l u s eo f t h a t t e r m .

I l . H u m e t h i n k s t h i s i s t r u e d e s p i t e ' ' t h e a r t i f i c i a ls t r u c t u r e o f t h e a c c o m p t s " ( T 1 8 I ) 'i rz . I migh t instead just suspend judgment ' - lha t worksf i n e , t o o . I f I d o a s s i s s t h e P r o b a b i l i t y - o f t h e. p p . ! i t " b e l l e f a s i n c r e a s i n g , h o w e v e r , t h i s d o e s n ' th e i p f o r t he re a s o n s g i v e n i n t h i s P a ra g ra p h '1 3 . S p a c e d o e s n o t p e r m i t m e t o g i v e a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s -s i o n o f t h e u . ? i o r r " w a y s H u me i s i n t e rp re t e rs a n dc r i t i . c s h a v e c o n s t ru e d t h i s a rg u me n t ' I e ra m i n et h e m i n d e t a i l , h o w e v e r r a n d r e l a t e t h e m t o t h e

p i e s e n t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , i n m y P a p e r , . " H u m e ' si { o t o r i o u s P ro b a b i I i t y A rg u me n t . " t o r t h c o m i n g 'o f H u ma n N a t u re (R o u t l e d g e an d K e g a n p a u lH e r e a f t e r r e f e r r e d t o i n t h e t e x t a s ( F o g e lf o l l o w e d b y t h e r e l e v a n t p a g e n u m b e r s ,

, r 9 8 s ) .i n I 9 8 5 )


18/18

60L 4 .

1 5

W h i l e F o g e l i n d o e s s e e H u m e a s p r o v i d i n g a ' s c e p t -i c a l s o l u t i o n ' t h a t i s n a t u r a l i s t i c , w e d i s a g r e ea b o u t w h a t t h a t s o l u t i o n i s a s w e l l , i n a d d i t i o n t oo u r d i s a g r e e m e n t a b o u t t h e n a t u r e a n d r o l e o fH u m e ' s s c e p t i c a l a r g u m e n t .Th a t i s j u s t t h e mo d e l e mb o d i e d i n t h e p i c t u re o ft h e ' r a t i o n a l l y r e f l e c t i v e e p i s t e m i c a g e n t ' I h a v ere g a rd e d H u me a s c o n s l d e r i n g t h ro u g h o u t my a c c o u n to f S e c t i o n I . I p r o v i d e a d e t a i l e d d e f e n s e o f t h i sr e a d i n g o f H u m e ' s ' s c e p t i c a l d o u b t s ' a n d ' s c e p t i c a ls o l u t i o n ' i n m y p a p e r , " H u m e ' s R e f u t a t i o n o fI n d u c t i v e P r o b a b i l l s m " i n J a m e s H . F e t z e r ( e d . )P r o b a b i l i t v a n d C a u s a l i t v , E s s a v s i n H o n o r o f W e s l e yC . S a l m o n ( K l u w e r . 1 9 8 8 ) , p p . 4 3 - 7 7 .I ' t y re s e a rc h , a n d my a t t e n d a n c e a t t h e x V I n t e r -n a t i o n a l H u me C o n f e re n c e i n Ma rb u rg , w a s ma d ep o s s i b l e b y g r a n t s f r o m t h e T a f t F a c u l t y C o m m i t t e eo f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f C i n c i n n a t i , f o r w h i e h I a m m o s tg r a t e f u l . I r e g r e t t h a t t h i s p a p e r , i n i t s p r e s e n tf o r m , c a n n o t i n c o r p o r a t e t h e i n t e r e s t i n g a n d h e l p f u lre ma rk s o f my c o n me n t a t o r , M i k a e I K a r l s s o n .The comments of my co l I eagues l . tarc ia L ind, JohnMc E v o y , a n d Ro b e r t R i c h a rd s o n g re a t l y i mp ro v e d a ne a r l l e r v e r s i o n o f t h i s p a p e r . I w a s a l s o h e l p e db y d i s c u s s i o n a n d c o r r e s p o n d e n c e w i t h J o h n B i r o ,B r e n d a B r i n t o n , K e i t h L e h r e r , K i r k R o b i n s o n , a n dJ e f f S c h a n k .

1 5 .

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