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Mobile BroadbandMobile Broadband Market DynamicsMarket Dynamics
May 13, 2008
Joe LawrenceJoe LawrenceCDMA Development GroupCDMA Development Group
2www.cdg.org
CDGHeadquarters
Latin AmericaCaribbean
Europe
Africa
India
Central Asia
Asia
CDG Global PresenceCDG Global Presence
More than More than 275 275 operators in over operators in over 100100 countries have countries have deployed or are planning to deploy CDMA2000deployed or are planning to deploy CDMA2000
2www.cdg.org
2www.cdg.org
Market TrendsMarket Trends
2www.cdg.org
Industry TrendsIndustry TrendsUsers Shifting from Wired to WirelessUsers Shifting from Wired to Wireless
On Demand Mobile TV On Demand Mobile TV -- IPTVIPTV
Enhanced Consumer and Mobile Enterprise ExperienceEnhanced Consumer and Mobile Enterprise Experience
Convergence with Consumer Electronics, Entertainment and ITConvergence with Consumer Electronics, Entertainment and IT
Digital HomeDigital Home
Mobile devices becoming PCs and PCs becoming mobile devicesMobile devices becoming PCs and PCs becoming mobile devices
Bridging the Digital DivideBridging the Digital Divide
Super Distribution of Multimedia ContentSuper Distribution of Multimedia Content
Increased Demand for Mobile Broadband BandwidthIncreased Demand for Mobile Broadband Bandwidth
Individuals Becoming Content CreatorsIndividuals Becoming Content Creators
Telemetric CarTelemetric Car
2www.cdg.org
Device TrendsDevice TrendsBigger and Better Quality Images Bigger and Better Quality Images –– 3D3D
Enhanced Audio Interfaces (3D Audio)Enhanced Audio Interfaces (3D Audio)
Faster Processing PowerFaster Processing Power
Enhanced Multimedia CodecsEnhanced Multimedia Codecs
Longer Battery LifeLonger Battery Life
Enhanced User InterfacesEnhanced User Interfaces
Increased Image/Video ResolutionIncreased Image/Video Resolution
Multiple Modes and AntennasMultiple Modes and Antennas
Increased Data Storage (> 8MB)Increased Data Storage (> 8MB)
TV OutputTV Output
Touch ScreensTouch Screens
Internal Motion SensorsInternal Motion Sensors
User Identity AssuranceUser Identity Assurance
2www.cdg.org
Application TrendsApplication Trends
Mobile CommerceMobile Commerce
Music, Photo and Video Downloads and UploadsMusic, Photo and Video Downloads and Uploads
Mobile AdvertisingMobile Advertising
Social Networking, Presence and Multimedia MessagingSocial Networking, Presence and Multimedia Messaging
Ultra Mobile Broadband Connectivity Ultra Mobile Broadband Connectivity (Always On)(Always On)
Super Distribution of Multimedia ContentSuper Distribution of Multimedia Content
Distance Learning, Remote Healthcare, etc.Distance Learning, Remote Healthcare, etc.
Richer Information DistributionRicher Information Distribution
Radio and TV broadcastingRadio and TV broadcasting (Multicasting)(Multicasting)
Personalized User InterfacesPersonalized User Interfaces
UserUser--Generated Content Generated Content (Uplink intensive info sharing)(Uplink intensive info sharing)
Personal Agents Personal Agents (Location & Timed(Location & Timed--based Alerts)based Alerts)
Song and Music Album DownloadingSong and Music Album Downloading
Multiplayer Online Gaming (3G)Multiplayer Online Gaming (3G)
Concurrent ServicesConcurrent Services (VoIP)(VoIP)
2www.cdg.org
Wireless voice
servicesIncreasing coverage +( + )
=Value proposition of Value proposition of cellular established. cellular established. Restricted to elite.Restricted to elite.
Phone number reaches a person
rather than a place
Decreasing phone cost( )
19801980’’ss
Wireless EvolutionWireless Evolution
More voicecapacity
SMS and some data+( + + )
Profound shift in Profound shift in cost and cost and
connectionsconnections
Better coverage, competition and global
connectivity
Devices start to integrate CE
features
Decreasing cost per minute
Decreasing phone costs+( )
20002000’’ss19901990’’ss =
Wireless voice and broadband data services
Mobile TV with compelling
content +( + + )
=Profound shift Profound shift
in user in user experienceexperience
Hyper- segmented content and
user-generated media
Increasingly powerful and feature-rich
devices
Decreasing Price per MB of memory
Decreasing Cost per bit
Decreasing Cost per MHz of processing power+ +( )
20102010
2www.cdg.org
Convergence of Communication, Computing & CE Platforms
Multi-mode Devices Connect to Various Access Networks
Service Requirements, Availability, Cost …
Mobile Device EvolutionMobile Device Evolution
User Behaviors Trend from Wired to Wireless
Same Rich IP Apps and Services in all Environments
Ubiquitous & Consistent Experience Desired
Network EvolutionNetwork Evolution
All-IP Network For Fixed-Mobile Convergence (VoIP & data)
Co-existence of Different Access Networks for Various Needs
Coverage, Mobility, Capacity,QoS, Data Rates …
Service EvolutionService Evolution
Wireless Broadband EvolutionWireless Broadband EvolutionCDMA2000 is leading the evolution to next generation mobile broaCDMA2000 is leading the evolution to next generation mobile broadband servicesdband services
2www.cdg.org
Broadband Solution TrendsBroadband Solution Trends
Networks,Networks, Devices,Devices,
SpectrumSpectrum andand
ServicesServices
2www.cdg.org
Most leading service providers support more than four radio technologies:
Mobile Communications LandscapeMobile Communications Landscape
““One Technology Fits AllOne Technology Fits All”” or or ““One Network Fits AllOne Network Fits All”” strategy may no longer suffice in todaystrategy may no longer suffice in today’’s competitive marketss competitive markets
Increased complexity is defining the future landscape of telecomIncreased complexity is defining the future landscape of telecommunicationsmunications
VIVOVIVOAMPS
GPRS
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO
CDMA2000 1XcdmaOne
GSM
VerizonVerizon
CDMA2000 1X
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO
cdmaOne
MFLO
AT&TAT&T
GSM
EDGE
WCDMA
TDMA
GPRS
HSPA
MFLOVodafoneVodafone
GSMEDGE
WCDMA
GPRS
HSPADVB-H
NTT DoCoMoNTT DoCoMo
PDC
HSPAWCDMA
ISDB-T
SKTSKT
cdmaOne
HSPA
CDMA2000 1X
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO
S/T-DMB
Sprint NextelSprint Nextel
CDMA2000 1X
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO
cdmaOne
iDEN WiMAX
China MobileChina Mobile
PHSGSM
GY/T220.1-2006
GPRS
Bluetooth
GPS
GPSGPS
Bluetooth Bluetooth BluetoothBluetooth
Bluetooth Bluetooth Bluetooth
Wi-Fi Wi-Fi
2www.cdg.org
Next Generation Broadband Business CaseNext Generation Broadband Business Case
The business case for widerThe business case for wider--bandwidth mobile broadband networks bandwidth mobile broadband networks is being created and validated by Rev. A and HSPAis being created and validated by Rev. A and HSPA
BroadcastHDTV*
Mobile Broadband
ConsumerElectronics
Fixed Broadband Access
ConcurrentServices****
BusinessApplications**
Push-to-Media(SWIS)***
Ultra MobilePortable Computers
* Including broadcasting content to motor vehicles** Including video telephony, distance learning, remote medicine and other video-enabled field services*** See What I See (SWIS)**** For example, telephony, chat, push-to-talk, data casting, position location and mobile commerce during 3D multiplayer gaming.
3G is generating the demand and proving the business case for Ne3G is generating the demand and proving the business case for Nextxt--GG
2www.cdg.org
Core and Radio NetworkCore and Radio Network TrendsTrends
2www.cdg.org
Deployment of IPDeployment of IP--based Network Architecturesbased Network ArchitecturesEVEV--DO networks are evolving to a DO networks are evolving to a ““flatflat”” IPIP--based network architecturebased network architecture
Fewer Network Nodes, Lower Latencies and Better PerformanceFewer Network Nodes, Lower Latencies and Better Performance
InternetInternet
RNC
PDSN
RF Antennas(BTS)
CircuitCircuit--SwitchedSwitchedNetwork ArchitectureNetwork Architecture
InternetInternet
Gateway
IMS
IP-basedRF Antennas
(Access Points)
IP Network (Ethernet)
PSTN
PacketPacket--SwitchedSwitchedNetwork ArchitectureNetwork Architecture
2www.cdg.org
T1/E1, IP terrestrial, microwave, satellite, or fiber
Secure Phones
Mobile Devices
Mobile Broadband Devices
Backhaul Options:
Fixed Wireless Devices
PTT
Multimedia
Low-end
Deployment of IPDeployment of IP--based Radio Network Solutionsbased Radio Network SolutionsA versatile and affordable cellular system for mobile broadband A versatile and affordable cellular system for mobile broadband communicationscommunications
PSTN
Access Point Controller(BSC) BSC, BTS, PDSN, IWF,
Media Switch & Gateway
Managed Packet Network
Access Point(BTS)
IP-basedRF Antennas
SmartphonePoS
Remote IP-based
RF Antennas
2www.cdg.org
Radio Network Technology EnhancementsRadio Network Technology Enhancements
The following technology enhancements are enabling higher speed and higher capacity mobile broadband networks:
Multicarrier assignments
Interference Cancellation
Higher order modulation
Multiple CPU processing
Receive and Transmit Diversity
MIMO
R&D investments are improving the performance of mobile broadbanR&D investments are improving the performance of mobile broadband networksd networks
2www.cdg.org
Deployment of Extended Coverage Base StationsDeployment of Extended Coverage Base StationsFlexible micro base station installations that maximize rural coFlexible micro base station installations that maximize rural coverageverage
Antennas
Base transceiver station (BTS)Power AmplifierTransceiver
Source: ZTE, June 2006
2www.cdg.org
Deployment of Deployment of FemtocellsFemtocellsExtending reach and capacity of 3G broadband networksExtending reach and capacity of 3G broadband networks
Device cost = $49.99Device cost = $49.99 Service cost = $15 per monthService cost = $15 per month
2www.cdg.org
DeviceDevice TrendsTrends
2www.cdg.org
Development of Open DevicesDevelopment of Open DevicesCDMA2000 devices will be able to deliver open applications on moCDMA2000 devices will be able to deliver open applications on most any networkst any network
2www.cdg.org
Evolution to Multimode/Multiband DevicesEvolution to Multimode/Multiband DevicesCDMA2000 multimode devices have and will support multiple radio CDMA2000 multimode devices have and will support multiple radio technologiestechnologies
Multimode/multiband CDMA2000 devices will play an important Multimode/multiband CDMA2000 devices will play an important role in delivering next generation mobile broadband servicesrole in delivering next generation mobile broadband services
Broadcast
PAN/LANBroadband
WAN
CDMA2000
UMBLTE
802.16m
MFLODVB-HISDB-T
S/T-DMB
Bluetooth802.11a/b/g
802.11n
GSMGPRSEDGE
WCDMAHSPAiDEN
2www.cdg.org
Next Generation Multimode DevicesNext Generation Multimode DevicesWorldModeWorldModeTMTM devices will include next generation broadband technologiesdevices will include next generation broadband technologies
WorldMode devices will continue to introduce WorldMode devices will continue to introduce multifunctional capabilities multifunctional capabilities
CDMA2000 1X + EV-DO + GSM + GPRS + GPSEV-DO Rev. A + HSPA + GPS
CDMA2000 1X + EV-DO Rev. A + UMB/LTE/WiMax + GPS
2www.cdg.org
3G Multimode Mobile Broadband Router3G Multimode Mobile Broadband Router
Global MobileBridgeTM
MB9000
Supports the following radio links using different PCMCIA cards:
• EV-DO Rel. 0• EV-DO Rev. A• 802.11b/g
• GPRS• WCDMA• HSPA
2www.cdg.org
SpectrumSpectrum ConsiderationsConsiderations
2www.cdg.org
Using the lower frequency bands is preferable for Using the lower frequency bands is preferable for broadbandbroadband--intensive network deploymentsintensive network deployments
Fewer cell sites = Fewer backhaul connections = Lower costsFewer cell sites = Fewer backhaul connections = Lower costs
Frequency assignments are as important as the broadband technoloFrequency assignments are as important as the broadband technology selectiongy selection
11GHz5GHz1GHzCDMA
450
LicensedUnlicensed
GSM1.8
CDMA1.9
GSM900
CDMA800
cdma2000®
450, 800, 1.7, 1.9, 2.1
CDMA1.7
802.15.1Bluetooth
2.4802.11 b, g, n
Wi-Fi2.4
802.11 a, e, nWi-Fi5.8
802.16a, eWiMAX
2-11
802.16a, eWiMAX
5.8
802.15.3aUWB
3.1-10.6LMDS28-29
29GHz
Licensed &Unlicensed
Spectrum: BandwidthSpectrum: Bandwidth--Intensive NetworksIntensive Networks
The warmer (lower) licensed frequencies are best!The warmer (lower) licensed frequencies are best!Greater range (larger coverage areas), less cell sites, less bacGreater range (larger coverage areas), less cell sites, less backhaul connections, better inkhaul connections, better in--building penetration, building penetration, better mobile performance, less power consumption, higher averagbetter mobile performance, less power consumption, higher average data throughputs in an NLOS environmente data throughputs in an NLOS environment
2GHz
IMT-20001.9
IMT-20002.1
IMT-20002.5
IMT-20001.8
IMT-2000800
2www.cdg.org
ServiceService TrendsTrends
2www.cdg.org
Leading the shift towards VoIP in a mobile environmentLeading the shift towards VoIP in a mobile environment
March2004
2004 - 2005
VoIPDevelopment
and lab testing
EV-DO Rev. A standard
complete – QoS support
for delay sensitive apps
Late2008
Early2006
Validation of VoIP performance with
extensive capacity & quality
field testing
Demo at CTIA
2009
Rich Voice Apps:• Voice with video & picture sharing• Push- to- Media• IM with voice & video
Rev. A QChat VoIP- based
terminals
Existing Services:• Voice calls• MMS• Push-to-Talk
Hi
Hi, look at how she’s pretty
Congratulations
Rev. A VoIP- based
terminals
CDMA2000 Timeline for VoIPCDMA2000 Timeline for VoIPCDMA2000 Timeline for VoIPCDMA2000 operators are expected to begin offering VoIPCDMA2000 operators are expected to begin offering VoIP--based services in 2009based services in 2009
2www.cdg.org
Deployment of Mobile TV ServicesDeployment of Mobile TV ServicesMobile TV is the most bandwidthMobile TV is the most bandwidth--intensive service available today intensive service available today
2www.cdg.org
Service EvolutionService EvolutionEvolution from voiceEvolution from voice--centric 2G and 3G networks to next generation mobile centric 2G and 3G networks to next generation mobile broadband networks will take many yearsbroadband networks will take many years
CircuitCircuit--switched voice services over 3G WAN networks will remain in switched voice services over 3G WAN networks will remain in commercial use until next generation broadband networks are fullcommercial use until next generation broadband networks are fully y capable of delivering ubiquitous and less expensive carriercapable of delivering ubiquitous and less expensive carrier--grade grade
VoIP communicationsVoIP communications
Evolution from voiceEvolution from voice-- to datato data--centric telecommunicationscentric telecommunications
2www.cdg.org
Migration to Migration to Next Generation Mobile BroadbandNext Generation Mobile Broadband
PerspectivePerspective
2www.cdg.org
Migration TimelineMigration TimelineWith an increasing number of subscribers, the migration process With an increasing number of subscribers, the migration process is lengtheningis lengthening
Putting things into perspective.Putting things into perspective. The generational migration process will take many years.The generational migration process will take many years.
Voice will remain the Killer Application.Voice will remain the Killer Application.
Migration of SubscribersMigration of Subscribers