Growth of broadband, Mobile services and its impact on nation’s GDP and reach of mobile services to the next billion

ByKartik Mehta

Under guidance of Dr. Audrey Curtis

Stevens Institute of Technology, HobokenDecember 2009

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives.It is the one that is the most adaptable to change1.

Charles Darwin

1 Charles Darwin quotes http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/c/charles_darwin.html

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Index

1. Fourth wave of IT, next big thing in IT: Mobile internet, anytime, anywhere.1.1 The fourth wave, the era of IT everywhere.1.2 Convergence of Networks, applications and technology.1.3 Growth trends in Mobile computing.

2. Is social networking – Transforming personal, community and social culture?2.1 Community, collaboration, sharing as we moved from Web 1.0 to Web 2.02.2 Growth of social networking sites.2.3 Social networking from fixed laptop, desktops to mobile using mobile graphical user interfaces “widgets”.

3. President Barack “blackberry” Obama and rise of election campaign 2.0 and government 2.0, the evolution of era of social intelligence.3.1 President Obama vs Senator John McCain campaign on Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, Linkedin. Did internet make a difference in favour of young President?3.2 Popularity of President Obama in Twitter top 10?3.3 2009 election fund raising and role of Mobile computing.3.4 From former President Government 1.0 to President Government 2.0, has the government become more open and if so how?

4.0 Decline of Broadcasting and the rise of portable online and streaming media4.1 Why is the age of business model of Broadcasting vanishing, churning losses?4.2 Declining revenue of TV, radio broadcasters and rise of social media networks like Twitter, Facebook. 4.3 From Pepsi to McDonald and Ford to Yahoo, are enterprise adopting social networks brand building and for communicating with their communities.

5. Merging of three screens, Television, Laptop and Mobile.5.1 UnUP, Universal plug and play protocol and its role merging of three screens.5.2 Growth of online video streaming and hours spend by consumer5.3 Birth of Mobile TV standard and its impact on Mobile video in future.

6. Education from Lecture in buildings to collaboration anywhere using mobile tools.6.1 High cost of present delivery system of education. Can Mobile education help in lowering cost of education.6.2 Education from one sided teacher to pupil communication to collaboration between teachers and students.6.3 e-Readers, digital books, youtube education channel and the evolution of Education 2.0 – Mobile education anytime, anywhere, at lower cost with collaboration.

7. Mobility, GPS and Location based services.7.1 Mobile enabling buying and selling of both products and services.

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7.2 From travel tickets to nearest restaurant to users feedback of product and service, features increasing going Mobile.

8. Mobile payments8.1 Mobile payments from myth in 2004 to a reality in 2006 and beyond.8.2 Simplicity, the name is Mobile payment and lowering of transaction cost.8.3 Role of PayPal mobile in success of micropayment using Mobile.8.4 Big banks from Bank of America to Chase, jumping in to encash on growing Mobile payment service as well retain customers and loss of business in long run.8.5 Mobile payments beginning to go mainstream after success of text based Mobile payments for Haiti donation.

9. Bibliography.

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Fourth wave of IT, next big thing in IT: Mobile internet, anytime, anywhere

Is Mobile internet, mobile services and its impact on gross domestic product, return on investment the next big change for humans?But, first, why we are going are doing this search and then we examine how technological innovations like Mobile internet, are effecting and will continue to have effect on lives of millions in future? Forrester researcher Christopher Mines, in his presentation, “The next big thing for IT” in June 2005 professed about the “The fourth wave of IT”2. Mines visioned four eras of IT and consequently named each era as four waves of Information technology as per their respective eras. His classification of these eras are, first wave, from 1956 to 1976, the era of main frame computers, the second wave , from 1976 to 1992, the era of personal computers, the third wave, from 1992 to 2008, the era of networked computing and fourth wave, the era of IT everywhere3.

The Forrester report stated Mobile internet would bring changes and have far reaching implications on in global trade and commerce (Figure 1) 4.

2 Forrester researcher, Christopher Mines, presentation, “The next big thing for IT” http://www.forrester.com/rb/analyst/christopher_mines3 Forrester report at WITSA, World Information Technology and Services Alliance http://www.witsa.org/presentations/ 4 WITSA, World Information Technology and Services Alliance http://www.witsa.org/hyderabad08/WITSA_PublicPolicyReport08.pdf

Morgan Stanley in its 2009 Technology report at Web Summit stated that “Mobile internet would be bigger than what most think”.

5 http://www.slideshare.net/techdude/economy-internet-trends-2009-from-morgan-stanley

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On examining the hypothesis that mobile would have a greater than any other technological breakthrough in the past, we find that. The answer lies in the penetration of mobile in hands of the consumer.

However, it not just the number game that has led to excitement around the globe for mobile technologies in recent past.

Ramjee Prasad in his paper explains why we are now seeing rise of Mobile as the new client server frontier replacing the Laptop and desktop. He mentions that there is a convergence of Networks, applications and technology.

Technology and Networks convergence:The networks architecture are maturing from days of using ATM, to all IP, making things simpler. From days of best effort service, networking has moved to Diffserve and MPLS providing control over data control and preference in data flow required for efficient 6 http://www.cloudfour.com/blog/

handling of data traffic in today’s age of network traffic congestion. With advent of Wimax specially the Wimax 16e, a technology which is compatible with both fixed and mobile Wimax and technologies like LTE, convergence is taking place amongst the network providers be it Wireless, fixed and broadcast.

Along with these companies like Intel, Qualcomm developed small and better processors for mobile, better chips for enabling reception of dual technologies like GSM, GPRS, WiFi on single chip and software defined radio for military use.Coupled with high data rates came the proliferation of devices from Smartphones like I-phone to Netbook GPS, E-reader, Mobile internet device (MID) based on newer and better operating systems like Apple mobile, Windows mobile and recently Android operating system has led to better mobile hardware systems.

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These advancements in the mobile and wireless technology has made possible, what was impossible a decade ago possible now – emergence of mobile applications market.

High throughput rates on Mobile due to advent of 2.5G and 3G technologies, smaller form factor of mobile is making it easy to carry. Consumer’s need for applications ranging from instant information to emails to mobile maps to mobile banking to VoIP calls using smartphone to watching favorite video streamed on smartphones, checking weather in morning to train schedules, to meeting alerts, checking balance bank statement. This has made mobile central part of consumer lifestyle. Better browsers for mobile like Opera, better mobile operating systems like Apple, Android, Symbian by Nokia, RIM, Windows Mobile have made mobile experience more easier, faster, for the mobile user. The opening of mobile applications market from the above companies etc have further enhanced the value of Mobile smartphone to consumer resulting in sudden spurt in demand of smartphones and also Netbooks, smartbooks7. This movement of applications from desktop platforms to wireless and mobile configurations may have a significant impact on future daily activities.8

These developments have led to fundamental change in Internet delivery from days of Cable when the Data was 7 TOWARDS MORE USABLE MOBILE APPLICATION DEVELOPMENTDr. W. M. Lim, Mobile Technology, Applications and Systems, 2005 2nd International Conference on

8 Comparative study of "functional" mobile applications, Papadopoulos Homer,Athens, Greece speaking at Personal, Indoor and Mobile Radio Communications, 2008. PIMRC 2008. IEEE 19th International Symposium on

delivered over the copper wires to now when Voice is being delivered over the Data using technologies like UMTS, GPRS, CDMA, lately Wimax.

9 Morgan Stanley Economy + Internet report October 2009 at Web 2.0 Summit – San Francisco www.morganstanley.com/techresearch

10 NTT DoCoMo http://www.nttdocomo.com/

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IDC latest report brings good news for Telecommunications and particularly portable PC (Mobile, Netbook industry). Key IDC findings from this market outlook include:“1. Worldwide cellular chipsets will grow at a 9.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) on a unit basis from 2009 to 2014. 2. While cellular broadband applications made up less than 7% of this unit volume in 2009, this market will grow at a 35% CAGR to account for over 16% of total chipsets by 2013, far outpacing the growth in the mobile phone market.3. While most cellular broadband chipsets have been consumed by industrial/M2M applications prior to 2008, portable PCs and mini-notebooks (also known as netbooks) will drive a majority of the segment growth going forward, followed by a variety of other consumer, health/medical, and automotive applications.4. Strong growth in cellular broadband, primarily driven by portable PCs, mininotebooks, and mobile Internet devices (MIDs)/smartbooks will help accelerate the migration of this segment from 2G and 2.5G technologies to 3.5G

and 4G technologies over the next several years. The rollout of LTE will greatly encourage this migration starting in 2011.”11

Given the above mentioned trends it is safe to say that portable PC (Smartphone, Netbooks, Slates) would soon become the new client server for masses, a position once enjoyed by fixed laptop, desktops, and two, that we are entering the era of “always connected with the world via Internet anywhere, anytime”.

11 Portable PC rise http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?sessionId=&containerId=prUS22154210&sessionId=AKSDRCJNSHOXYCQJAFDCFEYKBEAVAIWD

12 Morgan Stanley Economy + Internet report October 2009 at Web 2.0 Summit – San Francisco www.morganstanley.com/techresearch

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Social networking – Transforming social cultures

This is the front cover of Time magazine December 2006 year.

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YOU are the person of the year (2006), says David Carlson, the author of the cover story. The author says though the year 2006 the war in Iraq, Aghanistan, Sudan made headlines, but if we look from a different lens, one will see a different story, “The story about community and collaboration on a scale never seen before. The new web, called 2.0, will change the world forever”. The author goes on to say that source of his motivation is that the social web. “The social made a major break-through with reader content based sites wikipedia, Slideshare, YouTube, Facebook”14.

13 Front cover of Time magazine Dec 2006 http://davidreport.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/time.jpg14 Author David Carlson http://davidreport.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/time.jpg

If we search for the reason for this shift we would discover that from internet of 1990, the dot.com, bubble era to current Mobile Wireless, the Internet has changed drastically. And that has led web changing from Web 1.0 to web 2.0. The distinguishing features of today’s web are that the consumers, the users like me and you, we are today the creators, the distributors as well as the consumers of the content. Thanks to Web moving from desktop, laptop to mobile, the rate of growth of communication has increased drastically as well from the one lane traffic of 1990s, the internet of today is a two way phenomenon wherein users have donned the role of authors. Thus, there is more explosion of content available for consumers from newspapers, to blogs to images to videos.

Web 2.0 as a platform has reduced the cost of production by publishing houses, the cost of marketing and the cost of distribution has virtually become zero.

15 Flick photo of Web 1.0 vs Web 2.0 http://www.flickr.com/photos/dionh/234525331/

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This means that the not only the overall cost of producing the content has gone down tremendously but the distribution of content is more spread far and wide. Also the sharing content between families, friends and communities has become lot easier making communities more closely connected as well rise of collective community intelligence.

16 Whether an individual needs to know about performance of sport events they both like, like many fans do on Yankee www.facebook.com, or a job seeker’s quest for networking, contacts, jobs postings do on sites like www.linkedin.com, or seeking latest news in specific field digg.com/ or www.google.com/reader/Or sharing favourite video or TV broadcast on www.youtube.com or www.hulu.com or seeking review of product to buy on www.amazon.com, social networking has changed the way we interact with rest of the world.It a nutshell, unlike the past, where individuals, communities relied on

16 David Amano, Harvard Business publishing http://darmano.typepad.com/logic_emotion/2008/10/have-we-come-fu.html

institutions, centralized media, today they are relying on their respective social network, social media and communities.

The result is that social networking sites have been seeing phenomenal growth in last three-four years. 18

Neilson, the marketing and media rating agency, in its April 2009 report stated that “Time spend on sites like Twitter 17http://isabelsabadi.files.wordpress.com/2009/05 /ist2_5474170-social-network.jpg

18 http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/

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has grown by 3700%, while Facebook by 700% on a April 08 to April 09, year-over-year basis. While in terms of unique visitors, Twitter saw increase of 1,382 % year-over-year”, between 2008-09, making it the fastest growing site in the Member Communities category for the month”.

CEO of Nielsen Online, John Burbank, stated that “Social networking has become a fundamental part of the global online experience. While two-thirds of the global online population already accesses member community sites, their vigorous adoption and the migration of time show no signs of slowing.”20 “Time spent viewing video on social networking sites increased 98 percent year-over-year, according to Nielsen. In the past, TV networks had variety of TV channels, catering to genres like News and Politics, Sports, Entertainment, Children, Comedy. Today, similar, channels are coming to Video portals like youtube, veoh.com. Video streaming using sites like

19 Twitter, the fastest growing site http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/twitters-tweet-smell-of-success/20 Social network, the new global footprint. http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/global/social-networking-new-global-footprint/

youtube.com are today not just limited to desktop, laptops but it can also be seen anywhere, anytime using Smartphones like I-phone, HTC Android, Blackberry etc. 22

21 http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/22 www.morganstanley.com/techresearch

23 www.morganstanley.com/techresearch

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And, that explains the sudden rush of TV Networks to Web, from NBC to CNN to ABC, in last couple of years. No one wants to loose business and hence TV networks are adapting to new medium of web with changing times.

One of the biggest gainers has been the consumers.

While, the Social networks gaining ground over email, once thought to be as killer application, marks coming of age for social networks. It also marks beginning of Intelligent web. In case of Web 1.0, the intelligence was locked inside the Personal computers of individual authors of content. But, with Web 2.0 it is available on Web. And,

24http://www.insidefacebook.com/2009/04/19/mi ss-the-old-news-feed-use-facebook-for-iphone/

web portals like Facebook, Twitter, youtube are aggregating the intelligence and making it collective intelligence done not by humans as in the past but by machines.However, the bigger growth is expected in coming year and years ahead as more and more consumers are accessing their social networks via Smartphones, netbooks. Morgan Stanley report stated that 20MM plus active Mobile users of facebook and that the Mobile Facebook users on average are 50% more active than non-Mobile users. The report also cited that 1MM users commented on their friends status changes on Mobile within the first 24 hours of this features launch.

Given the above shift in medium of communications, it is safe to say that we have entered the era of Mobile social networking and instant communications.

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President Barack “Blackberry” Obama, US Elections 2.0 and US government 2.0

“Were it not for the Internet, Barack Obama would not be president. Were it not for the Internet, Barack Obama would not have been the nominee,”25

Arianna Huffington, editor in chief of The Huffington Post, at “The Web and Politics” panel at the Web 2.0 Summit 2008 in San Francisco.

However, the Huffington Post editor was not alone in her assessment. Then Sen. Barack Obama was named “Advertising Age's marketer of the year for 2008”26

indicating that well before he entered the White White house, he's already won over the nation's brand builders. Linda Clarizio, president of AOL’s Platform A, said of Barack Obama, “I think he did a great job of going from a relative unknown to a household name to being a candidate for president”.27

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25 Web summit 2.0 in 2008, SFO http://www.web2summit.com/web2008/public/schedule/detail/506626 Advertising Age magazine http://adage.com/moy2008/ 27 President of AOL’s Platform A http://www.adsavvy.org/obama-wins-ad-ages-marketer-of-the-year/

On Facebook, if we look at Facebook profile of President Barack Obama, we find the President has a supports base of 6,943,604 supporters28, while Senator John Mc Cain has supporter base of 512,774 supporters 29.On Twitter, if we see President’s Twitter profile we find, people whom President is following, people following the President’s tweet message and his listed friends on Twiiter they are 747,742following, 2,791,076followers, 27,256listed 30 as compared to Senator John McCain profile page that shows

28 Barack Obama,US President on Facebook http://www.facebook.com/barackobama?q=barackobama&ref=ts29 Senator John McCain on Facebook http://www.facebook.com/johnmccain30 Barack Obama,US President on Twitter http://twitter.com/BARACKOBAMA

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66following, 1,622,312followers and 3,768listed 31respectively.

On Myspace.com Barack Obama has 1889889 friends and 130449 comments 32 implying a President Obama MySpace profile generates a good amount of interaction between the President’s followers and target audience while if we look at Senator John McCain profile page on Myspace.com had no details of friends or comments by followers33.

The extent of popularity of President Barack Obama could be seen on The Twitterholic.com, the site that tracks top 100 Twitterholics based on number of followers. Site says President Obama is the Twitter fifth most popular user with CNN above him fourth position and Britney Spears on number 2, Orpah winfrey on number six, New York Times on number 18 to give the big picture of President’s popularity on Twitter while Senator John McCain not figuring in the list34.

The methods of online presence then Senator Barack Obama used for creating history and winning the Presidency, the use of online tools like Twitter, Facebook, youtube as medium of information dissmentaion continues. Not, only is information updated on White House website, but information is also available Twitter, Facebook, youtube, something that not be done in the past.

31 Senator John McCain on Twitter http://twitter.com/SENJohnMcCain 32 Barack Obama,US President on Myspace.com http://www.myspace.com/barackobama 33 Senator John McCain on Myspace.com http://www.myspace.com/johnmccain 34 Barack Obama,US President ranking Twitter http://twitterholic.com/

White House on youtube, Twitter, Facebook provides feeds of events involving White House as they happen, making information available for masses, creating communities and political debates but with greater participation of masses than in the past.

35 White House on Twitter http://twitter.com/whitehouse

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Popular commentator at O’Reilly radar, Joshua-Michéle Ross, says that “FDR was our radio president, JFK was our television president and Barack Obama will be our Internet President”38. Many 36 White House on youtube.com http://www.youtube.com/user/whitehouse?blend=1&ob=4&rclk=cti

37 White House on Facebook http://www.facebook.com/WhiteHouse?ref=ts

38 What does it mean to be Internet President http://radar.oreilly.com/2009/01/what-does-it-

news organizations reported about his determination to hold on to his blackberry and have a similar device with him in White House. The wired magazine reported that “Many agree that stripping Obama of his BlackBerry would make his transition into office extremely rough. Obama is recognized as the most tech-savvy president to date. Using the internet as a fundraising and organizing tool, Obama’s presidential campaign was the most digitally sophisticated organizing apparatus of any presidential campaign in history39”. John Podesta, co-chairman of theObama-Biden Transition Project wrote in LA Times that “An off-line Obama isn't just bad for Barack. It's bad for all of us. The president's ability to reach outside his inner circle gives him access to fresh ideas and constructive critics”40;

Lets examine if Internet, Mobile internet using his Blackberry, has played a role in boosting then Senator Barack Obama to President Barack Obama. For the same, we do a comparison of the traditional modes of information dissemination versus Internet and more specifically Mobile internet.

1. The service provided by Broadcast TV, Radio, newspaper advertisement is spreading of information about the

mean-to-be-an-internet-president.html

39 President Obama determination for having Blackberry in White Househttp://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2009/01/obama-my-blackb/

40 President Obama determination for having Blackberry in White House http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-podesta20-2009jan20,0,2226079.story

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candidate. Internet and mobile internet provide the same service.

2. Unlike Broadcast TV, Radio, newspaper advertisement, internet video is virtually free. Hence, same service at virtually zero cost can be provided by Internet with sites like youtube, dailymotion, metacafe. Yahoo video, veoh.com.

3. Unlike Broadcast TV, Radio, newspaper advertisement which is a one way communication from the candidate to the target voter, the Internet based campaign is two way communication from the candidate to the target voters and from voters to the candidate via blogs, postings on web, social networking sites like facebook, myspace. Hence, internet provides room for interaction and collaboration between the candidate and the voter, other public figures which enables better informed discussion.

4. Internet and more specifically mobile internet audience is huge and growing specially the undecided young voters.

5. In political campaigns, media often filters out candidates views and presents the TV channel’s version of candidate views. But, with internet video information is passed in direct manner without any third party in between adding the authenticity value missing in traditional means like TV, radio.

6. Life of a campaign message is more longer in Internet as video on Video portal or message on a website as against a TV or Radio broadcast or newapaper ad which happens on a particular day and time and vanishes.

In contrast life of campaign message is 24x7 that enables the volunteer of a political party, target voters to view the information anytime 24x7, anywhere.

7. Internet allows campaign message to respond to opponents in an agile manner unlike a phased manner of software development life cycle in TV, Radio, newspaper advertisement. An event occurs, an candidate to write a reply or record a video and post on video portal or website in no time, while in TV, Radio, newspaper advertisement candidate might have to look to raise money for buying a spot and then look for space, if available, in next morning or evening TV broadcast or newspaper publication.

8. And, use of Internet for political discourse was not limited to election campaign alone. President Barack Obama and his team has brought government on internet and more specifically using social media making his government set standards of Government 2.0.

And, it is not just White House that has adopted Government 2.0, other Federal governmental agencies, State government agencies are catching up too, making Government 2.0 a trend rather than an isolated case of existence.

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On searching popular social media sites Facebook, youtube.com, Twitter one finds that apart from White House presence there other federal and state agencies are catching up with ideas, choice of communication medium favorite to President Obama. And, presence on social media space is not just being present for sake of presence. t President Obama led White House has 1,691,994 Followers and his team has sent 175 Tweets on Twitter42, White House 445,844 fans on Facebook43 and a separate dedicated channel called WhiteHouse channel on youtube.com44

41 Various state government, state Governors now on Twitter http://twitter.com/GOVsites/state-government

42 White House on Twitter http://twitter.com/whitehouse

43 White House on Facebook http://www.facebook.com/WhiteHouse?ref=ts44

And, in State government’s Twitter site, right from 1. Government of Massachusetts, “ massgov Massachusetts Libraries -- There's something for everyone! http://ow.ly/10g97” to

2. “GovernorRiley We have jumpstart job growth in Alabama now - not next year, not two years from now - but right now. Here's our plan: http://tiny.cc/pwVGo”, to

3. Government of Arkansas “Arkansasgov Gov. Beebe's Weekly Column - Challenging our Students in Science, Math and the Real World: http://ow.ly/10jiM 45”,

Even the RecoveryDotGov is on twitter giving updates about Federal funds spending and details about the spending.

s

White House on youtube.com http://www.youtube.com/user/whitehouse?blend=1&ob=4&rclk=cti

45 State government on Twitter http://twitter.com/GOVsites/state-government

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While Federal Communications Commission is on Facebook.

FCC is just one of the many agencies of the Federal government and less than one year of its existence it has 1,612 fans47 while state department like Department of education, New York has as many as 2912 fans on Facebook.

46 Federal Communications Commission on Facebook http://www.facebook.com/FCC?ref=ts

47 FCC fans on Facebook http://www.facebook.com/FCC?ref=ts

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Government agencies announcements, gazettes that were in past releases as press release, in newspapers for dissemination of information to the masses, now happens in much faster manner, with greater degree of public participation, with sense of community, at a lower cost, less amount of effort on part of government agencies.

More importantly, Facebook, Twiiter have brought information for use of average citizen and thus making it a fan club where two way discussions can take place and hence greater degree of scope of participation.

However, the latest in trend has been the Widgets of white House that has caught the attention of masses. Launched in January 2010, this widget enables getting information instantly on I-phone.

The vision of open Government, President Obama led White House has 48 Department of education, New York fans on Facebook http://www.facebook.com/NYCschools?ref=search&sid=521114188.1511237012..1

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started, other governmental agencies are now following or catching up.

Amtrak recently released its Widget, making it possible for thousands of

passengers travelling via Amtrak to get instant information about train schedules with switch of a button on their Blackberry, I-phone.

Decline of Broadcasting and the rise of portable social media

Eight decades after pioneering the concept of broadcasting, NBC, the leader in the broadcasting industry and after having influenced the lives of millions of people in US and round the globe, NBC, is on the verge of a startling move.

As, NBC, prepares for a takeover by a Cable operator, Comcast, the move illustrates broadcast television's decline writes David Bauder in Business Week49". David writes that “Broadcast people, the folks who remember when television was ABC, CBS, NBC and little else, used to look down upon cable”.“This is highly symbolic," said Tim Brooks, who had worked at NBC for 20 years and now writes books on television history in the article. David writes that a Comcast takeover is largely symbolic now, though practical reality ultimately may overshadow that as NBC and other broadcasters face declining audiences50.

49 Broadcast pioneer NBC prepares for cable takeoverhttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9BVPUKO0.htm 50 Broadcast pioneer NBC prepares for cable takeoverhttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/financ

But, is this something new unseen event or was it coming for years. In an article way back in July 2004 edition of Business week, the magazine ran front cover story about “The Vanishing Mass Market”51. This itself gave clear of things to come in future, that is, the decline in traditional media ad spend while rise of Online media.

What Business week reported in 2004 about decline of the mass media has now further glorified this year by the fact that mass media advertising revenue declined

ialnews/D9BVPUKO0.htm 51 The Vanishing Mass Market http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_28/b3891001_mz001.htm

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as per Morgan Stanley report.

A web blogger writes that “In years to come, broadcasting won't be broad and it won't be casting. The dominance of one way, passive media consumption is over”.

It is said no revolution is bloodless. If traditional media, TV, Newspapers, radio are making big losses, players like Nintendo Wii, Microsoft X Box, Amazon-on-demand, TiVo are making money out of the market lost by traditional media players. But, why is there a decline in age old Broadcasting model of media?

The answer is can be found searching on Social media sites and searching for Corporate America presence in Social media channels.

Starbucks Corporation in 2008, announced “It's closing 600 underperforming stores in the United States. As many as 12,000 Starbucks

workers will lose their jobs”52. Starbucks was reportedly losing edge and was facing increased competition from McDonald’s and Dunkin’ Donuts. The company decided to retrain employees and self innovate. Starbucks took steps to engage its customer and discuss suggestions to improve the coffee store. The same year, 2008, Starbucks launched a new website to engage its customer community online to get, share and discuss suggestions from the customers to improve Starbucks. Called the My Starbucks Idea, it has already generated 70,000 ideas by its first birthday in March 200953.

“Your Ideas. Your Starbucks.

What would make your Starbucks experience perfect? We know you've got ideas - big ideas, little ideas, maybe even totally revolutionary ideas - and we want

52http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesst echnology/2008028854_starbucks02.html

53 http://www.socialmedia.org/blog/my-starbucks-idea-generates-70000-ideas-in-its-first-year/ 54http://mystarbucksidea.force.com/apex/ideaList ?lsi=0

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to hear them all. Together, we will shape the future of Starbucks”55.

Based on customer feedback, Starbucks deployed free WiFi and started frequent buyers bonus beverage program amongst others ideas.However, it is not Starbucks alone that has taken the Social media route to build community, get customer engagement and participation in improving company’s performance.

And, it is not just Starbucks that has embraced social media as channel for building its brand, connecting with consumers and making communities. Competitors food chains like Subway, McDonalds have quickly jumped in the social media bandwagon.

55http://mystarbucksidea.force.com/apex/ideaList ?lsi=056 http://twitter.com/Starbucks

Even big time players like the beverage maker, Pepsi, Coke have joined this new medium. Given that young audience is likely to be more social media savvy, Pepsi, Coke, car makers like Fod, Toyota, have all jumped in to encash the virtues of social media in their attempt to catch the attention of their customers.

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These development show that social media for business has matured and has gone main stream for the business and enterprise.

Social media for improving enterprise productivity.

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Starbucks Corporation in 2008, announced “It's closing 600 underperforming stores in the United States. As many as 12,000 Starbucks workers will lose their jobs”57. Starbucks was reportedly losing edge and was facing increased competition from McDonald’s and Dunkin’ Donuts. The company decided to retrain employees and self innovate. Starbucks took steps to engage its customer and discuss suggestions to improve the coffee store. The same year, 2008, Starbucks launched a new website to engage its customer community online to get, share and discuss suggestions from the customers to improve Starbucks. Called the My Starbucks Idea, it has already generated 70,000 ideas by its first birthday in March 200958.

“Your Ideas. Your Starbucks.

What would make your Starbucks experience perfect? We know you've got ideas - big ideas, little ideas, maybe even totally revolutionary ideas - and we want to hear them all. Together, we will shape the future of Starbucks”.

Based on customer feedback, Starbucks deployed free WiFi and started frequent buyers bonus beverage program amongst others ideas.

57http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesst echnology/2008028854_starbucks02.html

58 http://www.socialmedia.org/blog/my-starbucks-idea-generates-70000-ideas-in-its-first-year/

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Education: From Lecture in Buildings to collaboration on Podcast, E-reader.

“College May Become Unaffordable for Most in U.S.”, according to New York Times report published in December 200859.

According to the biennial report from the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, “the rising cost of college — even before the recession — threatens to put higher education out of reach for most Americans”. The report found, published college tuition and fees increased 439 percent from 1982 to 2007 while median family income rose 147 percent. Student borrowing has more than doubled in the last decade. “If we go on this way for another 25 years, we won’t have an affordable system of higher education”, Patrick M. Callan, NCPPHE President in NYT article.

59 New York Times report http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/03/education/03college.html

The gravity of the problem can be gauzed from the fact that US is one the highest spends round the world on education and innovation.

Hence, it is not just the Healthcare that needs reform, close on heels education is vying for attention of society.

Today, lectures from Harvard, MIT, Duke school, Caltech on youtube.com and there is a separate youtube channel dedicated to education.Distance is no longer a hindrance in getting service of education as lectures both video and real time classes can happen on web. This has resulted in rise to Distance and online learning. 60 http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/22/51/39317423.pdf

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4.Education is now not dependent on brick-and-mortar buildings and can now be hosted on the web. This will in long run help in reducing the cost of education.

5. Abundance of information available on the web, both students and teachers can have better informed resources for pursuing studies. This has made Education as a service just like Software as a service.

But, for benefits to occur in long run, some fundamental changes in education structure, governance and delivery of education would need change. Areas like Library resources management need to be improved by making resources available online and not just in the brick and mortar libraries but online libraries, investment in online class rooms.

Books are long gone and instead power point presentations on Slidesshare, Authorstream.com, Podcasting are the in thing. These web tools have made life easier for both students and teachers. Advantages of web tools in education at Corporate offices, College-University and continued education are the following:1. Learning has become collaborative 2. Two way communication and exchange of ideas between the teacher and pupil giving room for feedback, an important criteria for learning.

3.

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Created by author.

6. Live google during the class is slowing becoming are norm rather than just one isolated case. Education like TV Broadcasting has come of age where a teacher broadcasts lecture to student and students listen. Rather it has become a

61 Google images http://images.google.com/

two way exchange of ideas, duplex. This ill considerable bring don costs of education.

Books are dated, teachers knowledge is dated while power point presentations by people round the world is constantly changing, when we are awake and also when we are asleep.

Digital books, youtube lecture on mobiles.

Google bringing digital books on Smartphones. Apple introduces application for digital books on i-phone.

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62 Reader in Library with e-reader http://www.computerweekly.com/blogs/inspect-a-gadget/rex_798432e.jpg

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Mobility, GPS and Location based services

“ Inside the GPS revolution it's more than maps and driving directions: location-aware phones and apps now deliver the hidden information that lets users make connections and interact with the world in ways they never imagined. The future is here and it's in your pocket63” – writes The Wired magazine’s Eric Baba in January 09 issue. Lets examine author’s thesis.

Driving directions: If you have a GPS, you can say good bye to your Tourist guide, the bulky and costly maps books if you are a tourist wanting to travel distant places. Mobile applications, popularly know as Widgets, like Google

maps, yahoo maps, Garmin, TomTom could provide you easyway for traveling to a new destination, easy routes.

63 Inside the GPS revolution - http://www.wired.com/gadgets/wireless/magazine/17-02/lp_10coolapps?currentPage=all

Hotel, airlines and tourism: However, if apart from finding destination maps you

are also interested in booking airlines tickets, hotels, can you get the service while being mobile? Yes, widgets like Travelocity.com64 , Hotels.com, Kayak.com if you also looking to negotiate the best price then Priceline.com’s negotiator widget is for you but Priceline.com65 , would do it for you on your I-phone or android smartphone66.

However, if you a new resident in a locality you can search the nearest restaurants, cinema houses, malls, schools, hospitals, not to say the nearest grocery shop, books store, services like carpenter, cleaner for which one had to depend upon bulky yellow pages directories send by local chambers for

64 Travelocity widget for hotels, travel http://mobile.travelocity.com/ 65 Priceline.com on mobile for hotel search http://www.priceline.mobi/mobilesite/hotelSearch66 Hotels.com for mobile http://best.hotels.com/iphone-mobile

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commerce to houses in the past. Now, one can get all that information on touch of a button in your moving vehicle thanks to widget like Poynt.com67 on Blackberry and recently the leader in this field Craigslist came up with Mobile version68.

But, it is another widget, Yelp.com that has been news as one of the most in demand application and has been featured in Time magazine as well as New York time. Times says Yelp has outdone popular sites like Yahoo Local “If it's a restaurant, shop or business, it's probably been reviewed on Yelp — an independent site with millions of user-submitted evaluations. Yelp's got a gaggle of rivals — most notably Yahoo! Local 69”. Yelp has been profitable as local business post their ads on Yelp. The effect of Yelp could be gauged from the fact New York Times said “But with

67 Mobile yellow pages - Poynt.com http://poynt.com/68 Craigslist mobile widgethttp://mobile.craigslist.org/

69 Yelp widget review by Time magazine http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1812202_1812206_1812475,00.html

4 million reviews written and 15 million visitors a month, Yelp is a growing force in the food-obsessed corners of the Web”70. The reason for popularity of Yelp lies in the fact that it not only does it provide information but also gives reviews by the customers who have availed the services and so it adds authenticity and confidence for the customer who is about to avail the service.

Real Estate deals

Shopping However, if you are in Japan then you can even buy product and services over your phone. Application named ShopSavvy makes it easy for impulse buyers to find a best deal. Shoppers in Japan can scar the barcode with the camera on their smartphone and this Mobile widget will show how much the products costs online as well as other nearby stores. One can even get product reviews right on Smartphone.

70 New Times on Mobile widget Yelp http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/05/dining/05yelp.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=yelp.com&st=cse

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In era of smartphone, from gps to location based services to yellow pages are available via mobile widgets and are available on push of a button without even your presence in that area.

What does this mean for a tourist, a new resident, a busy officer goes?

Convenience of locating new location and distant places for sight seeing, nearest hotels, school, stations.Last minute alerts about traffic congestion & alternate routes.Ease of useSmartphone making GPS a low cost utility rather luxury.Use of augmented reality in future that can reduce long cues at the museum, historical places of interest.Pin-pointed location based advertising as against high cost and mass hoarding that could enable growth of location based services.

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Merging of three screens, TV, Laptop and Mobile

Neilsen, the marketing and media agency, in report Three Screen Report reported shows considerable year over year growth in terms of time spent for DVR (up 21.1%) and online video (up 34.9%) in Q3 2009.

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If broadcasting companies like NBC, CBS, ABC in US; BBC in UK, Channel 9 in Australia, were the big movers and shakers of the 1970’s and 1980’s decade it is the Youtube, Hulu, Facebook, Qualcomm, which are the drivers of change in the 2010 era.

What we all knew that the Online video is growing what took many by surprise was the growth of DVR. If we examine recent research done in this area, one protocol that has been a game changer for consumer watching content at home, it is the UnUP, the Universal plu and play protocol. Players like Roku, Tversity, Playon, established players like Amazon-on-demand video, Netflix are

71 http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/nielsen_three_screen.png

examples of companies activelt involved in developing software for UnUP.

Channels on play on with touch of button on remote.

A TVersity Media Server and we bring you support for Premium Web Content (including full TV episodes) from names like Hulu, BBC iPlayer, Joost, CBS, NBC, The WB, TV.com, ESPN, NFL, Comedy Central, South Park, Marvel, The Discovery Channel, National Geographic Channel, and more.72

This is the culmination of an almost 5 year effort, to bridge the world of Internet Video with the TV.

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However, it is not just on TV that we watch videos. Portable devices like I-phone, I-pods, Sony playstation are others.

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Youtube

Hulu

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MyspaceNetflix and Tversity76

77 78

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74 Morgan Stanley Economy + Internet trends report March 2009 www.morganstanley.com/techresearch75 Morgan Stanley Economy + Internet trends report March 2009 www.morganstanley.com/techresearch 76 Morgan Stanley Economy + Internet trends report March 2009 www.morganstanley.com/techresearch 77 Morgan Stanley Economy + Internet trends report March 2009 www.morganstanley.com/techresearch78 Morgan Stanley Economy + Internet trends report March 2009 www.morganstanley.com/techresearch

79 Morgan Stanley Economy + Internet trends report March 2009 www.morganstanley.com/techresearch

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Mobile payment comes of age pioneered by Paypal and now tussle to retain customers by retailers like Amazon.com, banks like Bank of America, Chase begins

"Pay for stuff with your mobile80”, ran tagline for Simpay, a mobile payment scheme founded by Orange, Telefónica Móviles, T-Mobile and Vodafone in 2004.

Then (2004) CEO of the Simpay, Tim Jones, said, “We intend to focus initially on under-ten euro on-line mobile payments for digital content. This lower value payment space is a huge opportunity for revenue generation and is yet largely untapped. We believe Simpay will be a catalyst in bringing over 1billion of extra industry transactions by 200781. Simpay focused on scheme for micropayments that would have microcharges. It was to have its technical launch by the end of 2004 and be commercially available in early 2005.82 Simpay was meant to provide a single platform to deal with the routing, clearing and settling of payments made with mobile phones.83

Using Simpay, “Consumers will be billed and pay for these via their mobile operator account. In the future Simpay expects to offer products optimised for higher value items like flowers and tickets as well as physical

80http://www.cellular.co.za/news_2004/feb/0227 04-simpay_mobile_payment_platform_a.htm

81http://www.cellular.co.za/news_2004/feb/0227 04-simpay_mobile_payment_platform_a.htm

82http://www.billingworld.com/articles/standards/ Standards-Watch-Simpay-Reaching-an-Untapped.html

83http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/27/technolog y/27iht-simpay.html?_r=1

goods and services like car parking and vending machines84”.

However, in 2005, New York Times reported that the venture had collapsed. NYT said in report that “the complexity of instituting a service bringing together sometimes bitter rivals plagued Simpay. Its collapse highlights the difficulties that rivals in any industry have in coming together to promote a service or a standard that could potentially benefit all sides”85. The 2005 NYT report stated that “Mobile phone companies and merchants have long dreamed of having customers use their cellphones to make purchases of anything from downloadable songs and ring tones to concert tickets. In Europe, so-called mobile commerce remains a niche industry at best, in part because the services used to facilitate purchases have proved to be too complicated for most consumers86”.

Just one year after the collapse of Simpay, March 2006, Pay Pal launched its Mobile payment system, Pay Pal mobile in UK reported MobileEurope87.

84http://www.cellular.co.za/news_2004/feb/0227 04-simpay_mobile_payment_platform_a.htm

85http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/27/technolog y/27iht-simpay.html?_r=186http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/27/technolog y/27iht-simpay.html?_r=1

87http://www.mobileeurope.co.uk/news_analysis/ 111909/PayPal_to_launch_mobile_payments_service_in_the_UK.html

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According to PayPal, the service will enable people to buy goods by sending money through their mobile phones. It will also enable PayPal users to send money to each other via their mobile phones using the company's person-to-person payment service.

Using PayPal Mobile's "Text to Buy" service, consumers will be able to make instant purchases, such as CDs, DVDs, shoes and clothes, by sending product codes via text message. Items will then be delivered to home addresses already saved in the buyers' PayPal accounts.

Pay Pal says that the merchants who have signed up to PayPal's new mobile service will be able to open new direct sales channels to buyers, while consumers will be able to see an advertisement - in a magazine, or on TV for example - and purchase products

immediately.

Then Chief executive of PayPal Europe, Geoff Iddison, in interview in 2006 said "The system will kick-start mobile payments in the UK and globally, and revolutionise the way people pay, as well as how companies can track advertising effectiveness”88. Iddison had added that "The system is password protected, so even if an account holder's phone is lost or stolen, the PayPal account remains secure. Like all transactions with PayPal, mobile payments are safe for all our users and customers' financial details are not shared with merchants: they remain within the PayPal network at all times".

88http://www.mobileeurope.co.uk/news_analysis/ 111909/PayPal_to_launch_mobile_payments_service_in_the_UK.html

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With more than 78 million active accounts in 190 markets and 19 currencies around the world, PayPal enables global ecommerce89. And, now it is m-commerce.

Management consultancy firm, Arthur D. Little, in its 2009 report cited that “In the last five years, markets with mobile payment offers have matured with a variety of players entering the industry value chain and new services being launched. The key issues now being addressed include cross border interoperability and standardization. While the prevailing financial crisis poses challenges to value chain players, we still believe that m-payment services will significantly develop over the coming years with the rise of mobile internet, the continuous improvement of mobile handsets and the younger generation’s preference for mobile services90”.

89 https://www.paypal-media.com/aboutus.cfm

90

Arthur D. Little forecasts global m-payment transaction volume to reach approximately USD 250 billion by 2012, an increase of 68% p.aM-payment transaction volume in developed markets is expected to grow at 56% p.a., representing 35% of the total transaction volume in 2012, compared to emerging markets with a 76% p.a. growth, accounting for 65% of the total volume in the same yearM-payments are unlikely to substitute existing payment. Despite the current hype, Arthur D. Little does not expect to see a massive Near-Field-Communication (NFC) adoption in a majority of developed countries until 2011 at the earliestIn emerging countries, Arthur D. Little expects m-payments to become the first widespread cashless payment system.

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And, it is not Paypal alone.https://www.paypal.com/mobile

https://online.citibank.com/US/JRS/pands/detail.do?ID=CitiMobile&Promo_ID=CH34&Prospect_ID=901CA46B29B740318E9544773040393F

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