Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Mobilizing the Connected Consumer
Carrie MacGillivray, Program Vice President
Mobile Services, M2M & Network Infrastructure @CMacIDC
Looking Back Operator Story Has Been About…
Connectivity
Network
Services
Devices
Looking Ahead to 2013
U.S. LTE deployments reach critical mass Prepaid rises in importance for “big two” FCC/DoJ approves TMo/Metro Sprint/Softbank/Clearwire/Dish figure it out Spectrum woes get louder Where is #3?
• BlackBerry 10 faces scale challenge • WP8 and Nokia just don’t mix
Shared data plans have mixed results
The Turning Point is NOW
Network Monetization Embracing OTT as Frenemy Connecting More “Things”
Content & User Experience Requires a Robust Network
Network Monetization
Premium services and content
Quality of Service Faster speeds, better
experience Consistent experience
across devices Business analytics to
understand user dynamics/behavior
Over-The-Top is Friend, Not Foe
Think back to the threat of mobile VoIP (i.e. Skype)
Messaging across platforms, opportunity for integrated services
Opportunity to partner, co-market and reach larger audience
Connecting “Things”
• Scalable • One customer = many connections
• Leverages legacy networks • Many use cases will suffice on 2G
• Reduces customer service costs
• Endless # of revenue models
• Value-add services • Managed services, analytics
Some of Best Roles Are Supporting Roles
2016 operator will be the pipe AND critical partner
“Connected devices” will be passé • Instead, just a reality
Direct billing through content providers – operators play wholesale role
Our kids (grandkids?) won’t be able to name the top three operators
Contact Information
Carrie MacGillivray Program Vice President, Mobile Services, M2M & Network Infrastructure [email protected] 1-519-954-8026 Twitter: @cmacIDC
Consumer Electronics: The Darkness Before the Sunrise
Jonathan Gaw Research Manager, Consumer Technology
@jonathangaw
Digital Consumer Devices Market – Growing and Evolving
12
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Worldwide Consumer Digital Device Revenues 2010 - 2016 ($000s)
Smartphones
HDTVs
Consumer Laptop PCs
Tablets
Digital Cameras
Feature phones
Consumer Desktop PCs
Video Game Consoles
Handheld Video Games
Set-top Boxes
Digital Camcorders
Blu-ray Players
Printers
eReaders
Digital Media Adapters
DVD Players
Source: DRAFT IDC Worldwide Consumer Market Model, January 2013
Digital Consumer Devices Market – Growing and Evolving
13
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Revenues from Smartphones, Tablets, HDTVs, Laptops...and everything else ($000s)
Worldwide Consumer Digital Device Revenues
Smartphones, Tablets, HDTVs, Laptops Revenues
Source: DRAFT IDC Worldwide Consumer Market Model, January 2013
The Problem - Commoditization
The Problem – Value Migration
The Problem – Crumbling Brick-and-Mortar Retail
The Solution – Love and Hate
The Solution – Bi-Lateralism
The Solution – The New ABCs of Sales
Essential Guidance
Invest in art Double down on mobile, social, cloud, big data Count what counts
Contact Information
Jonathan Gaw Research Manager, Consumer Technology [email protected] 612-729-4730 Twitter: @jonathangaw
The Consumer Cloud A New Platform for Innovation, Content
Management and Service Delivery Greg Ireland
Research Manager, Multiscreen Video @IDCvideoguy
Intersections as 2013 Begins
Devices | Connectivity | Services
Cloud as the Platform
Innovation Service Delivery
Content Management
Personal Cloud
Source: 2012 ConsumerScape 360 Survey; U.S. Consumers and Cloud Services (IDC #235199, July 2012)
15% of U.S. respondents very
familiar 60% of respondents age 18-34
very or somewhat familiar
54% of respondents that are familiar
say security is a barrier 46% of respondents that are familiar say
higher Internet access fee is a barrier
Expanding Addressable Universe 3.4 billion network-enabled
PC/CE devices
900 million network-enabled retail CE devices
1 billion smartphones
200 million tablets
700 million pay TV HHs
2.4 billion Internet users
1 billion streaming video users
EOY2012 WW installed base estimates; numbers not exact due to rounding
Sources: Worldwide Consumer Market Model (IDC Draft, January 2013); Worldwide Multichannel Pay TV Subscriber 2012-2016 Forecast (IDC #238291, December 2012); New Media Market Model (2H 2012, December 2012)
Ripple Effect
Premium content distribution
Connected CE integration
Broadband access
Personal storage
Content sharing
Communication
Guidance on the Road to 2016 Evolution of/disruption to legacy The mobile-first Internet Connecting the network-enabled Table stakes to differentiation Cloud-based “virtual” services Network and content delivery infrastructures
Learn More
IDC’s Consumer Cloud Multiclient Study Survey and forecast deliverables Defining and segmenting the consumer cloud Sizing consumer cloud users and spending Assessing consumer attitudes and behaviors Global scope, regions, developed v emerging
Contact Information
Greg Ireland Research Manager, Multiscreen Video [email protected] 305-351-3200 Twitter: @IDCvideoguy
SmartUltra4KOLED: A Fresh Look at the TV Market
Bob O’Donnell Program Vice President, Clients and Displays
@bobotech
Agenda
TV Forecast The New Technologies UltraHD or UltraBS? Make Mine OLED
The iTV Question Essential Guidance
Worldwide TV Forecast
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Western Europe
USA
Middle East and Africa
Latin America
Japan
Central and Eastern Europe Canada
Asia Pacific excluding Japan
Worldwide TV Forecast Revenues ($M)
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
$85,000
$90,000
$95,000
$100,000
$105,000
$110,000
$115,000
$120,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Q3 2012 Worldwide TV Market Share
17.20%
12.39%
6.31%
5.76% 5.43% 5.01% 4.58%
4.13% 3.14%
2.90%
33.16%
Samsung LG Sony Toshiba Panasonic Sharp TCL Hisense Philips Skyworth Others
LCD Screen Size Forecast
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
60in.+ 55–59in. 50–54in. 45–49in. 40–44in. 35–39in. 30–34in. 25–29in. 20–24in. 15–19in. <15in.
TV Technology Forecast
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
OLED PDP LCD CRT
The Never Ending Battle for “Newness”
The Problem? Inertia
Solutions?
Technology 2013 Adoption 2016 Adoption LED 87% 100% 3D 18% 30% Connected TV 41% 48% Smart TV 21% 41% OLED 0.3% 7% Ultra HD 0.01% 5%
UltraHD
Beautiful to look at…but Limited content Extravagant price Difficult to appreciate
OLED Thin, bright, colorful, but difficult to manufacture Can’t offer 4K Resolution
Apple iTV: Fact or Fiction?
Prototypes have been built However….
Business model changes Content partnerships
Opportunity? Interface
Essential Guidance
LCD with 4K vs. OLED Smart OS confusion
Gestures, voice and remotes Make it all work!
Contact Information
Bob O’Donnell Vice President, Clients & Displays [email protected] 650.350.6482 Twitter: bobodtech
Q&A Panel
Panelist: Bob O’Donnell, VP, Clients & Displays
Moderator: Danielle Levitas, Group VP, Consumer, Clients, Broadband & New Media
Panelist: Carrie MacGillivray, VP, Mobile Services, M2M & Network Infrastructure
Panelist: Greg Ireland, Manager, Video, Consumer Cloud
Panelist: Jonathan Gaw, Manager, Connected Consumer
#IDCCES
Join IDC for More Discussion About Consumer & Mobile Technology
Consumer Predictions Telebriefing Next Thursday, January 17th at 12ET/9PT
Register Here http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=IDC_P26898&pageType=EVENTDETAILS
IDC at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona Sunday, February 24th
http://www.idc.com/MWC-Brunch_Feb2013
Go to IDC.com to register for these and other IDC events.
