Modeling and Simulation€¦ · Modeling first can save cost, burn down risk, and reduce schedule uncertainty Modeling and Simulation can be applied in a multitude a ways to deliver

© 2013 Lockheed Martin Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

Modeling and Simulation

More Critical Than Ever in a Challenging Environment

Frank Russ

October 2013


2

The Need for Modeling and Simulation

External Factors

– Increasing Mission Complexity

• Rapid What-if Scenarios

– Declining Customer Budgets

– Drive Toward FFP Contracts

– Affordability

– Long Range Planning Challenges

Internal Factors

– Solution Credibility

– Program Execution Risk

– Affordability

– Design to Cost

– Dispersed Workforces


3

DOD Budget Outlook


4

Modeling and Simulation Applications

Metric/Statistical Models

– IT Services Optimizations

– IT Transformations

Business Process Modeling

– Manufacturing Line Process Flows (Discrete Event)

Sustainment System Affordability Models

– Integrated Logistics Affordability Optimizations

Mission Performance Models

– Global Communications Modeling


5

Rapid Modeling and Simulation Methodology

Define Model Structure Based on Enterprise

Validate the Model Against the As-Is Baseline

Update Model

Right Size Staffing for the To-Be Baseline

Introduce Innovations to Improve Productivity or

Increase Workload

Validate & Calibrate

Right Size & Optimize

Innovate & Improve

Continuous Model Refinement Using Metrics

1 2 3 4

5

The Approach is Not Trivial…But it is Repeatable It Requires Skilled Staff to Implement It Provides Cost Estimation Credibility…And Supports Ongoing Enterprise Analysis


6

Problem Complexity

Why not prototype?

– Prototypes can be very expensive and may not accurately simulate the

system

– Access to the systems’ inputs and outputs may be difficult to achieve or be

non-existent

– Limited Availability to conduct What-if Analyses

Customer Mission Complexity is Rapidly Increasing

– Assets that support these missions are growing more complex at an equal

or faster rate

Degrees of Variation are too broad for traditional methods to work

Optimized is in the eye of the Beholder

– Customer priorities, contractual requirements, budgets

Discover Hidden Performance Optimizations Through M&S and Expert Analyses


7

Enterprise IT Workflow Case Study

Challenge

– Maintain or Exceed SLA performance while simultaneously increasing

productivity and reducing cost

Approach

– Model Specific Enterprise Workflows

– Validate

– Apply Business Innovations

– Optimize on Customer Best Value

Result

– 58% Cost Takeout


8

Enterprise IT Workflow Case Study


9

Simulation Output Analysis – Help Desk

• 5 Morning shift personnel

• 4 Afternoon shift personnel

• 2 Overnight/Weekend shift personnel




Baseline Scenario – Staffing Based on Standard Metrics

Optimal Sizing – Based on 80% Utilization

12 FTE Help Desk Agents – 100% Utilization

16 FTE Help Desk Agents – 80% Utilization

Median Call Answer Time: 1.1 Hour

Median Call Answer Time > 1 Hour

90% Call Answer Time: 3.8 Hours

Median Call Answer Time: 42 Seconds

90% Call Answer Time: 7.6 Minutes

Understaffed

Optimally Staffed


10

Simulation Output Analysis – Break-Fix







44 FTE Break-Fix Techs – 51% Utilization

24 FTE Break-Fix Techs – 90% Utilization

Baseline Scenario – Staffing Based on Standard Metrics

Optimal Sizing – Based on 90% Utilization

Median Return to Service: 1 Hour

90% Return to Service: 1 Hour

Median Return to Service: 3.2 Hours

90% Return to Service: 8.9 Hours

Overstaffed

Optimally Staffed


11

Innovation With Purpose


12

Manufacturing Process Optimization Case Study

Challenge

– Can LNG tanks be produced at the right price points, and delivered on the

required schedule

– Where are the productivity bottlenecks that prevent meeting the business

objectives

Approach

– Model the manufacturing line process detailing required resources,

including human, capital, and facilities. Determine system throughput.

– Add a second processing line and update the models to include resource

contention and evaluate impacts to throughput

– Develop an integrated labor/cost modeling tool for rapid ROM preparation

Result

– Rapid response to new orders

– Easily assess value to changes inn the flow or adding additional capacity


13

Liquid Natural Gas Tank Manufacturing Model


14

Affordability Analysis Process Flow


15

Architecture Performance Analysis Case Study

Recent Proposal Past Performance

Program % Reduction

In Spares

% Reduction In

Total Support Costs (Including Warranty)

Total Recommended Cost Savings

Program A 68.0% 48.9% (>$10M)

Program B 49.1% 65.1% (>$85M)

Program C 58.9% 44.1% (>$10M)

Program D N/A 44.0% (>$137M)

Program E -41.3% 29.8% (>$2M)

Program F 58.9% 7.2% (>$1.5M)


16

GCM Models Enterprise-Wide Comms

GCM updating MILSATCOM AoA since 2009: new scenarios, AEHF options, ACNs.


17

OSD and Army Research Lab:

JALN Architecture Research Testbed

• Army Research Lab High-

Performance Computing (ARL HPC)

cluster runs high-fidelity netcentric

communications models

• April ‘13 OSD and ARL determined

that GCM would be the best way to

flexibly and rapidly build large,

relevant scenarios for their HPC-

based communications modeling,

including:

• Unit locations and movements

• Network topologies

• Network traffic

• IS&GS working with OSD and ARL

to enhance their comm modeling

capability for XDR and Link-16 on

the path toward a JALN Architecture

Research Testbed (JART)


18

Modeling and Simulation Summary

Models provide a degree of flexibility to model virtually any

customer problem

Modeling first can save cost, burn down risk, and reduce

schedule uncertainty

Modeling and Simulation can be applied in a multitude a ways to

deliver real customer value

Traditional methods won’t address the degrees of variability or

system uniqueness

Models provide customer’s and business with rapid “What-if”

capability for Long Range Planning

Documents

Modeling and Simulation€¦ · Modeling first can save cost, burn down risk, and reduce schedule uncertainty Modeling and Simulation can be applied in a multitude a ways to deliver