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3/28/2019
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Less Stress When You Drive Express
Florida Department ofTRANSPORTATION
Modeling CAVs in an Express Lanes World
Barbara Davis, AICP, MBAToll Studies & Express Lanes Development Administrator
IBTTA Technology Summit 2019April 1, 2019 Orlando, Florida
AGENDA
Background
Summary & Next Steps
Model & AssumptionsBackground CAV
Impacts
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Background
BACKGROUND FOR MODELING CAVS
Challenge Yourself Every Day. I Promise It Will Be Worth It.
--Anonymous
• New Modeling Paradigm• Lack of Actual CAV Data• No Guidelines, Standards, or
Procedures• Onward!
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PROJECT NEEDS• Dynamic Network
Evaluation • Large, Developing,
Complex EL Network• Test a Range of CAV
Assumptions• FTE CAV Model:− Exploratory
− Evolutionary
Background
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• DTA Model for Traffic Forecasting on EL Networks
WHAT IS ELTOD?
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Mode Choice
ELToD Model
Traffic Assignment
Four-Step Model / Activity-Based Model
Trip Table & Network
O D
Express Lanes
General Purpose Lanes
Model
• Dynamic Traffic Assignment− Understands Network Performance− Develops Traffic & Toll Rates in 15-Minute
Intervals
• En-Route Decision Making− Congestion, Toll Rates− Value of Reliability (VOR)
• VTTS - Trip Purpose, HH Income
ELTOD MODEL FEATURES
Model
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• No Consensus on the Impacts− Timing− Magnitude
• Estimates Vary by Year and Magnitude
CAV ASSUMPTIONS - CURRENT RESEARCH
Assumptions
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Inte
grat
ion
Rat
e
Time
CAV Market Penetration
Litman et al. Lavasani et al. Kockelman Conservative
Kockelman Moderate Kockelman Aggressive
CAV ASSUMPTIONS - CURRENT RESEARCH
Assumptions
• Higher Income Households Adopt CAVs Earlier• Urban Areas Adopt CAVs Faster than Rural Areas• Preference for Limited Access Facilities
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1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Cap
acity
Fac
tor
CAV Percent on the Road
Link Capacity Factor
Freeway Non-Freeway
CAV ASSUMPTIONS - CAPACITY & SPEED IMPACT
Limited Access Arterials
Assumptions
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Cap
acity
Fac
tor
CAV Percent on the Road
Link Capacity Factor
Freeway Non-Freeway
CAV ASSUMPTIONS - CAPACITY & SPEED IMPACT
Capacity Increase
Limited Access Arterials
Assumptions
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• Value of Travel Time Savings (VTTS)• Trucks Adopt at a Higher Rate• Induced Trips…
CAV ASSUMPTIONS - OTHER
Assumptions
• Induced Trips - New• Mobility Independence− Disabled, Children− Seniors− Teenagers
• Zero Occupancy• Model Parameter
INDUCED TRIPS
Assumptions
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CAV IMPACTS – TRIP GENERATION BY TAZ
CAV Impacts
Regional CAV Integration Rate 20%
Regional CAV Integration Rate 40%
Regional CAV Integration Rate 60%
<10%
10%-20%
20%-30%
30%-40%
40%-50%
50%-60%
60%-70%
70%-80%
80%-90%
>90%
CAV Trip Generation Rate by TAZ
CAV Impacts
CAV IMPACTS - TRIP PERCENT ON ROADWAYRegional CAV Integration Rate 20%
Regional CAV Integration Rate 60%
< 10%
> 90%
50%
CAV Trip Generation Rate on Roadway
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CAV Impacts
No CAVs Regional Integration Rate 20% Regional Integration Rate 60%
No Congestion
Congestion
Level of Congestion by CAV Integration Rate
CAV IMPACTS - ROAD CONGESTION AM PEAK
Example of Toll Segment Traffic by AM Peak DirectionSAMPLE MODEL OUTPUT
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96
Volu
me
Time Intervals (15 min)
Non-CAV Volume
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96
Volu
me
Time Intervals (15 min)
CAV Volume
CAV Impacts
General Purpose Express Lanes
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Example of Toll Segment Traffic by AM Peak DirectionSAMPLE MODEL OUTPUT
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96
Toll
Rat
eTime Intervals (15 min)
Toll
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96
Mile
s Pe
r Hou
r
Time Intervals (15 min)
Speed (mph)
CAV Impacts
General Purpose Express Lanes
• Model in Exploratory Phase, Evolving• Range of Scenarios - Sensitivity • Integration Favors Densities, Higher Income HHs
Commercial Vehicles, Limited Access Facilities • CAVs Increase Capacity, Speed, Delay Congestion • Model Updates to Consider Other Variables:− Trip Lengths− Land Use− Induced Trips
SUMMARY & NEXT STEPS
Summary
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Less Stress When You Drive Express
Florida Department ofTRANSPORTATION
Barbara Davis, AICP, MBAToll Studies & Express Lanes Development
Administrator
Florida’s Turnpike EnterpriseMP 263, Building 5315
Ocoee, FL 34761
Office: (407) 264 – 3806
www.floridaexpresslanes.com
