MODELING FRESH WATER CONSUMPTION ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION IN THE USA 2010-2040 James J Dooley The Combined GCAM Community Modeling Meeting and GTSP Technical Workshop for 2013 October 2, 2013

1

The author gratefully acknowledges the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA) for funding this work

What is included in “primary energy production”?

2

Coa

l Underground coal mining

Mining and washing/benefication for high and medium sulfur coals

Mining of low sulfur coals

Surface coal mine

Mining and washing/benefication for high and medium sulfur coals

Mining of low sulfur coals

Ura

nium

Hard rock uranium mine

(including milling)

Uranium hexaflouride conversion

Uranium enrichment

via gaseeous diffusion or centrifuge

Fuel Rod/Pellet

Assembly

In situ leaching uranium mine

Bio

ener

gy

Ethanol Produiction

Biodiesel Production

Cru

de O

il

Domestically produced oil

Domestic offshore

Domestic onshore

Primary oil production Crude oil refining

Secondary water flooding Oil production from

tight formations including hydrofacking

Tertiary Oil Production

CO2-EOR

Steam driven EOR

Non-hydrocarbon injection EOR

Imported Crude Oil

Nat

ural

Gas

Domestic offshore gas production

Onshore gas production

Conventional natural gas production Natural gas processing,

dehydration, compression to pipeline pressures Coalbed methane

production

Shale gas / tight gas production including

hydrofacking

Four Cases from AEO2013 Were Used To Explore Changes in Primary Energy Production Cases in US 2010-2040 Reference Case US dependence on imported oil is 37% by 2040 (down from 60% in 2005). Real GDP

grows at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent from 2011 to 2040. Crude oil prices rise to about $163 per barrel (2011 dollars) in 2040. US follows “Low Uranium Production Scenario.”

Low Energy Imports

US becomes net energy exporter in mid 2030s. US energy production from shale gas, tight gas, and tight oil wells expands rapidly. Also transportation fuel efficiency rises rapidly depressing domestic demand for liquid fuels and VMT growth is modest (0.2%/year). US energy related GHG emissions are 4% below Reference Case by 2040. US follows “High Uranium Production Scenario.”

High Energy Imports

US dependence on imported oil is 44% by 2040. Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per shale gas, tight gas, and tight oil well is 50 percent lower than in the Reference case. Improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency are slower to materialized and vehicle miles traveled is higher than in other cases. US energy related GHG emissions are 1% higher Reference Case by 2040. US follows “Low Uranium Production Scenario.”

Ctax$25 Applies a price for CO2 emissions throughout the economy, starting at $25/tCO2 in 2014 and rising by 5 percent per year through 2040 (reaching about $90/tCO2 in 2040). US energy related GHG emissions are 31% below Reference Case by 2040. US follows “High Uranium Production Scenario.”

3

4

5.4

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

7.2

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n (k

m3 /y

ear)

US Primary Energy Production 2010-2040

Total Fresh Water Consumption (km3)

Reference Ctax25 High Import Low Imports

Reference Case Fresh Water Consumption by Fuel (km3/year)

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n A

ssoc

iate

d w

ith U

S Pr

imar

y En

ergy

Pro

duct

ion

Ref

eren

ce C

ase

(km

3 /yea

r) Oil Refining

Crude Oil Production

Natural Gas

Biofuel Refining

Coal

Uranium

Estimating Fresh Water Consumption for US Uranium Production

6

Ura

nium

Hard rock uranium mine (including milling)

Uranium hexaflouride conversion

Uranium enrichment via

gaseeous diffusion or centrifuge

Fuel Rod/Pellet

Assembly

In situ leaching uranium mine

Two Scenarios of US Domestic Uranium Production (t U3O8)

7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2011

20

06

2001

19

96

1991

19

86

1981

19

76

1971

19

66

1961

19

56

1951

US

Dep

ende

nce

on Im

port

ed

Ura

nium

USA Domestic Uranium Production

Low

Dom

estic

Ura

nium

Pr

oduc

tion

Cas

e

8

Fresh Water Consumption by Technology/ Process Fresh Water Consumption by State

Hig

h D

omes

tic U

rani

um

Prod

uctio

n C

ase

Estimating Fresh Water Consumption for US Coal Production

9

Coa

l Underground coal mining

Mining and washing/benefication for high and medium sulfur coals

Mining of low sulfur coals

Surface coal mine

Mining and washing/benefication for high and medium sulfur coals

Mining of low sulfur coals

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coa

l Pro

duct

ion

by R

egio

n (E

J)

Reference Case Coal Production (EJ)

Appalachia High Sulfur (Bituminous) Applachia Medium Sulfur (Bituminous)

Applachia Low Sulfur (Bituminous) Eastern Interior Medium Sulfur (Bituminous)

Eastern Interior High Sulfur (Bituminous) Eastern Interior Medium Sulfur (Lignite)

Western Interior High Sulfur (Bituminous) Gulf of Mexici Medium Sulfur (Lignite)

Gulf of Mexico High Sulfur (Lignite) Dakota Medium Sulfur (Lignite)

Western Montana Low Sulfur (Sub-Bituminous) Western Montana Medium Sulfur (Sub-Bituminous)

Wyoming Low Sulfur (Sub-Bituminous) Wyoming Medium Sulfur (Sub-Bituminous)

Rocky Mountain Low Sulfur (Bituminous) Rocky Mountain Low Sulfur (Sub-Bituminous)

Rocky Mountain Medium Sulfur (Bituminous) Rocky Mountain Medium Sulfur (Sub-Bituminous)

Akaska / Washington State Low Sulfur (Sub-Bituminous)

- 0.020 0.040 0.060 0.080 0.100 0.120 0.140 0.160 0.180

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n fo

r C

oal k

m^3

Reference Case Water for Coal Production

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coa

l Pro

duct

ion

by R

egio

n (E

J)

$25/tCO2 tax Case Coal Production (EJ/year)

Appalachia High Sulfur (Bituminous) Applachia Medium Sulfur (Bituminous)

Applachia Low Sulfur (Bituminous) Eastern Interior Medium Sulfur (Bituminous)

Eastern Interior High Sulfur (Bituminous) Eastern Interior Medium Sulfur (Lignite)

Western Interior High Sulfur (Bituminous) Gulf of Mexici Medium Sulfur (Lignite)

Gulf of Mexico High Sulfur (Lignite) Dakota Medium Sulfur (Lignite)

Western Montana Low Sulfur (Sub-Bituminous) Western Montana Medium Sulfur (Sub-Bituminous)

Wyoming Low Sulfur (Sub-Bituminous) Wyoming Medium Sulfur (Sub-Bituminous)

Rocky Mountain Low Sulfur (Bituminous) Rocky Mountain Low Sulfur (Sub-Bituminous)

Rocky Mountain Medium Sulfur (Bituminous) Rocky Mountain Medium Sulfur (Sub-Bituminous)

Akaska / Washington State Low Sulfur (Sub-Bituminous)

-

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n fo

r C

oal k

m^3

$25/tCO2 tax Case Water for Coal Production

Fresh Water Consumption for US Coal Production

12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08

0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18

0.2

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n (k

m3/

year

)

Fresh Water Consumption for US Coal Production 2010-2040 (km3/year)

Reference Ctax25 High Import Low Import

The Low Import case also reduces US coal production due to its abundant domestic oil and natural gas

As one would expect, the climate policy significantly reduces US coal production.

Estimating Fresh Water Consumption for US Biofuel Refining

13

Bio

ener

gy

Ethanol Produiction

Biodiesel Production

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Dom

estic

US

Bio

fuel

Pro

duct

ion

(m

illio

ns o

f bbl

s/da

y)

US Domestic Biofuel Production (millions bbls/day)

Ethanol - Low Energy Imports Scenario Ethanol - High Energy Imports Scenario Ethanol- Reference Scenario Ethanol - Ctax$25 Scenario Biodiesel - Low Energy Imports Scenario Biodiesel - High Energy Imports Scenario Biodiesel - Reference Scenario Biodiesel - Ctax$25 Scenario

14

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

US

Bio

fuel

Fre

sh W

ater

C

onsu

mpt

ion

(km

3/ye

ar)

Fresh Water Consumption associated with US Domestic

Biofuel Refining (km3/year)

Estimating Fresh Water Consumption for US Natural Gas Production

15

Nat

ural

Gas

Domestic offshore gas production

Onshore gas production

Convetntional natural gas production

Natural gas processing, dehydration, compression to pipeline pressures

Coalbed methane production

Shale gas / tight gas production including

hydrofacking

16

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n km

3 /yea

r)

Fresh Water Consumption (km3/year) for US Natural Gas Production 2010-2040

Reference Ctax25 High Import Low Imports

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

US

Dom

estic

Nat

ural

Gas

Pr

oduc

tion

(tcf/y

ear)

Natural Gas Production by State and Formation (tcf/year)

TX Shale Gas TX Conventional Natural Gas LA Shale Gas LA Conventional Gas Offshore Gulf Coast Natural Gas Alaska Conventional Natural Gas CO Coalbed Methane CO Conventonal Gas WY Coalbed Methane WY Conventional Natural Gas AR Shale Gas AR Conventional Gas OK Shale Gas OK Conventional Natural Gas PA Shale Gas NM Coalbed Methane

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n fo

r Nat

ural

Gas

Pr

oduc

tion

(km

3/ye

ar)

Fresh Water Consumption for Natural Gas (km3/year)

17

Estimating Fresh Water Consumption for US Domestic Crude Oil Production

18

Cru

de O

il

Domestically produced oil

Domestic offshore

Domestic onshore

Primary oil production

Crude oil refining

Secondary water flooding

Oil production from tight formations including

hydrofacking

Tertiary Oil Production

CO2-EOR

Steam driven EOR

Non-hydrocarbon injection EOR

Imported Crude Oil

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Perc

ent F

resh

Wat

er C

onsu

mpt

ion

Ass

ocia

ted

with

US

Cru

de O

il

Prod

uctio

n by

Sta

te a

nd

Pro

duct

ion

Proc

ess

19

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Perc

ent o

f US

Cru

de O

il P

rodu

ctio

n by

Sta

te a

nd

Prod

uctio

n Pr

oces

s

TX Primary Production TX Secondary Water Flooding TX Tight Oil

TX CO2-EOR AK Primary Production AK Secondary Water Flooding

AK Tight Oil AK CO2-EOR CA Primary Production

CA Secondary Water Flooding CA Tight Oil CA CO2-EOR

CO Primary Production CO Secondary Water Flooding CO Tight Oil

CO CO2-EOR WY Primary Production WY Secondary Water Flooding

WY Tight Oil WY CO2-EOR ND Primary Production

ND Secondary Water Flooding ND Tight Oil ND CO2-EOR

Lower 48 Offshore Other

Domestic Crude Oil Production

Fresh Water Consumption Crude Oil Production

20

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n (k

m3/

year

)

Fresh Water Consumption for Refining (km3/year)

Reference Ctax25 High Import Low Import

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n (k

m3/

year

) Fresh Water Consumption

for US Crude Oil Production (km3/year)

Reference Ctax25 High Import Low Import

A Shift to Lower Resource Grades Might Result in More Water Intensive Primary Energy Production

! A shift to lower grades of primary energy

resources implies a more energy-intensive primary energy sector.

! Whether this shift to lower grades of the primary energy resource results in a more water intensive primary energy system is very dependent upon fuel, site and reservoir specific characteristics.

21

Derived from Figure 1 Stylized Depiction of water use and energy production as a function of time (figure taken from Supplemental Information for Nicot and Scanlon, 2012)

Tight Oil / Gas Formations

Enhanced Oil / Gas Production

Primary Oil / Gas Production

5.4 5.6 5.8

6 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8

7 7.2

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n (k

m3/

year

)

US Primary Energy Production 2010-2040 Total Fresh Water Consumption (km3/year)

Reference Ctax25 High Import Low Imports

Backup Slides

22

What is happening at the state, basin, and production technology level that drives the difference in fresh water consumption between these scenarios?

23

24

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

7.2

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n (k

m3/

year

)

US Primary Energy Production 2010-2040 Total Fresh Water Consumption (km3)

Reference

Low Imports

-0.400

-0.300

-0.200

-0.100

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n (k

m3/y

ear)

Changes in Fresh Water Consumption Low Import Case minus Reference Case (km3/year)

Texas Crude Oil Refining Lousiana Crude Oil Refining Mississipi Crude Oil Refining Texas Crude OilProduction New Mexico Crude Oil Production Oklahoma Crude Oil Production Utah Crude Oil Production Wyoming Crude Oil Production Montana Crude Oil Production Illinois Crude Oil Refining Missisipi Crude Oil Production Colorado Crude Oil Production North Dakota Crude Oil Production Alaska Crude Oil Production California Crude Oil Refining New Jersy Crude Oil Refining Indiana Crude Oil Refining Kentuky Crude Oil Refining Kansas Crude Oil Refining Ohio Crude Oil Refining Oklahoma Crude Oil Refining Pennsylvania Crude Oil Refining Total

(0.30)

(0.20)

(0.10)

-

0.10

0.20

0.30

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n (k

m3/

year

) Difference in National and Regional

Fresh Water Consumption Ctax$25 Case Compared to Reference Case (km3/year)

Texas Crude Oil Refining

Texas Crude OilProduction

Texas Natural Gas Production

Lousiana Crude Oil Refining

Mississipi Crude Oil Refining

Mississipi Crude Oil Production

West Virginia Coal Production

Kentuky Coal Production

Illinois Crude Oil Refining

Illionois Uranium Enrichment

Illinois Coal Production

Wyoming Coal Production

California Crude Oil Refining

New Jersy Crude Oil Refining

Total

25

5.7

5.8

5.9

6

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n (k

m3/

year

)

US Primary Energy Production 2010-2040 Total Fresh Water Consumption (km3)

Reference

Ctax25

26

-0.1000

0.0000

0.1000

0.2000

0.3000

0.4000

0.5000

0.6000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n (k

m3/

year

) Difference in National and Regional

Fresh Water Consumption High Import Case Compared to Reference Case (km3/year)

Texas Crude Oil Refining

Lousiana Crude Oil Refining

Mississipi Crude Oil Refining

Texas Crude OilProduction

Wyoming Crude Oil Production

Texas Natural Gas Production

Illinois Crude Oil Refining

Missisipi Crude Oil Production

Colorado Crude Oil Production

California Crude Oil Refining

New Jersy Crude Oil Refining

Total

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

7.2

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n (k

m3/

year

)

US Primary Energy Production 2010-2040 Total Fresh Water Consumption (km3)

Reference

High Import

Super Fast Summary as I am way over my allotted time already! ! The consumption of fresh water for primary energy

production is small compared to water use for crude oil refining or electricity production.

! It is a good thing we have an Integrated Assessment

Model that we can use as it would be interesting to see what happens to primary energy fresh water consumption (as well as total fresh water consumption) ! when there is significant deployment of PHEVs, ! in world that had a transportation sector that is dominated

by biofuels

27

28

29

Coa

l

Underground coal mining

Mining and washing/benefication for high and medium sulfur coals

Mining of low sulfur coals

Surface coal mine

Mining and washing/benefication for high and medium sulfur coals

Mining of low sulfur coals

Ura

nium

Hard rock uranium mine (including milling)

Uranium hexaflouride conversion

Uranium enrichment via

gaseeous diffusion or centrifuge

Fuel Rod/Pellet

Assembly

In situ leaching uranium mine

Bio

ener

gy

Ethanol Produiction

Biodiesel Production

30

Cru

de O

il

Domestically produced oil

Domestic offshore

Domestic onshore

Primary oil production Crude oil refining

Secondary water flooding

Oil production from tight formations including

hydrofacking

Tertiary Oil Production

CO2-EOR

Steam driven EOR

Non-hydrocarbon injection EOR

Imported Crude Oil

Nat

ural

Gas

Domestic offshore gas production

Onshore gas production

Convetntional natural gas production

Natural gas processing, dehydration, compression

to pipeline pressures

Coalbed methane production Shale gas / tight gas production including hydrofacking

Reference Case Fresh Water Consumption by Fuel (km3/year)

31

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n A

ssoc

iate

d w

ith U

S Pr

imar

y En

ergy

Pro

duct

ion

Ref

eren

ce C

ase

(km

3 /yea

r) Oil Refining

Crude Oil Production

Natural Gas

Biofuel Refining

Coal

Uranium

Fresh  Water  Consump0on  in  2040(km3/year)  

Crude  Oil  Refining    4.896    

Crude  Oil  Produc0on   1.087  

Natural  Gas   0.199  

Biofuel  Refining   0.171  

Coal   0.170  

Uranium   0.007  

Total Domestic Energy Production/ Consumption and Total Energy-related GHG Emissions

32

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Tota

l Dom

estic

Ene

rgy

Prod

uctio

n an

d To

tal D

omes

tic E

nerg

y C

onsu

mpt

ion

(Qua

ds/y

ear)

Reference Total Domestic Supply Reference Total Consumption

Low Imports Total Domestic Supply Low Imports Total Consumption

High Imports Total Domestic Supply High Imports Total Consumption

Ctax$25 Total Domestic Supply Ctax$25 Total Consumption

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Ener

gy R

elat

ed G

reen

hous

e G

as E

mis

sion

s (G

tCO

2e/y

ear)

Reference emissions Low Imports emissions High Imports emissions Ctax$25 emissions

Water Use in the Low Domestic Uranium Production Case

33

US Government has a monopoly on the conversion of U3O8 to UF6 and there is only one site in Southern Illinois that does this step in the nuclear fuel cycle.

Water Use in the High Domestic Uranium Production Case

34

35

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n (k

m3/

year

) Fresh Water Consumption for US Crude Oil Production

(km3/year)

Reference

Ctax25

High Import

Low Import

36

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

US

Dom

estic

Nat

ural

Gas

Pr

oduc

tion

(tcf/y

ear)

Natural Gas Production

by State and Formation (tcf/year)

TX Shale Gas TX Conventional Natural Gas LA Shale Gas

LA Conventional Gas Offshore Gulf Coast Natural Gas Alaska Conventional Natural Gas

CO Coalbed Methane CO Conventonal Gas WY Coalbed Methane

WY Conventional Natural Gas AR Shale Gas AR Conventional Gas

OK Shale Gas OK Conventional Natural Gas PA Shale Gas

NM Coalbed Methane Other

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fres

h W

ater

Con

sum

ptio

n fo

r Nat

ural

G

as P

rodu

ctio

n (k

m3/

year

)

Fresh Water Consumption for Natural Gas (km3/year)