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www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 03, Number: 8, June-2014 Page 18
Modeling of Sustainable Micro Hydro Power Plant (MHP)
Dwi Prapti Sri Margiasih
Absract –
Energy needs are expected to increase continuously as a result of economic and population growth.
The needs for national energy demand are fulfilled by fossil energy, However fossil energy reserves
increasingly depleted and the price is increased continuously. Therefore, it is necessary to develop of
renewable energy source. Utilization of renewable energy has not accommodated by local resources.
Which is cant support the sustainable management of renewable energy.
Micro hydro Also known as white resources known with translation as a "white energy". That
because power plant use the resources that have been provided by natural and environmentally
friendly. Is fact that nature has natural waterfalls or other types of water flowing into place. With
today's technology the energy of water flow of energy along with the height difference in a particular
area (where the installation will be built) can be converted into electrical energy
Utilization models of renewable energy (micro) based on local resources is a representation of an
integrated effort from all relevant institutions to support sustainable management of MHP. In general,
these efforts carried out systematically and comprehensively through a dimensional approaches
Ecology, Technology, Institutional, Economic, Social
Keywords—Micro hydro, sustainability renewable energy , modeling.
I. INTRODUCTION
Utilization of renewable energy resources as raw material for electrical energy production has
advantages such as easily available, can be obtained freely, means operating costs are relatively low,
there is no issue on waste, the production process does not cause a rise in earth temperature and
unaffected rising fuel prices (Jarass, 1980). Awareness Factors to preserve the environment, cause
human should reconsider alternative supply of electrical energy which renewable.
Electrical energy supply by PT. PLN (Persero), Indonesia's power manufacture is still insufficient to
meets the electrical energy needs of the community . Therefore, the government should pay attention
to local resources as potential sources of renewable energy to meet growing energy demand.
Submitted April 10, 2014. This paper is a researched how to reach the sustainability of renewable
energy supplay by manage local resources for microhydro operational. Dwi Prapti Sri Margiasih is
with the Environmental Science Graduate Program, University of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
(phone: +6281332005456; e-mail: [email protected]).
The concept of sustainable development within energy management to meet human needs, however
must be matched with the preservation of environment in order to maintained ecosystem function
sustainability, this can be explained by the following diagram:
Source: (Haeruman, 2000)
Figure 1. Nature resources utilization flow chart
Energy
Resources
Environmental
Product
Waste
3 Instrument:
-Regulation
-Market mechanism
-Social Value System
www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 03, Number: 8, June-2014 Page 19
Based on production lines of natural resources mention above, what is a key factor for use of
sustainable renewable energy based on local resources and How sustainable utilization models of
renewable energy by utilizing local resources?
The change in the paradigm of energy management, to meet the supply or availability of energy is
required to maximize the utilization of renewable energy supply and the price of fossil energy avoided
costs or avoid the cost of fossil energy.
This is because oil reserves to fuel power generation systems dwindling and the price is increase more
expensive. therefore trend of fossil fuel prices rising will increase the operating costs of generation are
also directly impact on unit cost of production of electrical energy.
On the other hand, the unit cost of production of electrical energy from power plant that utilize
renewable energy resources show a tendency to decline, scientists believe that at some point
mentioned unit cost of production will be lower than the unit cost of production with petroleum or
other fossil energy.
1.1. Research objective
The research objective is to perform modeling of renewable energy application (micro hydro) base on
local resources with a mathematical approach, and understand the leverage factor within micro hydro
operational accordance of the principles of environmentally sustainable development.
The research was held at the Seloliman micro hydro in East Java, Curug Muncar micro hydro,
Sonnggotirto micro hydro in Central Java, and Kombongan micro hydro, Cinta Mekar micro hydro in
West Java. It was conducted in September 2012 until November 2012.
1.2. Study Area
The research was held at the Seloliman micro hydro in East Java, Curug Muncar micro hydro,
Sonnggotirto micro hydro in Central Java, and Kombongan micro hydro, Cinta Mekar micro hydro in
West Java. It was conducted in September 2012 until November 2012.
1.3. Population and Sampling
This study use quantitative methode, the type of data used consisted of qualitative data and quantitative
data. Qualitative data such as: interviews and observations of the experts and surrounding community.
Quantitative data such as : observations of micro hydro facilities, and others secondary data.
Population of this study are all stakeholders of renewable energy (micro) consisting of Government /
Bureaucrats, MHP Entrepreneurs, experts / academics and users of renewable energy Society of MHP.
In other words, the present population is varied and not focused on one subject only. Through varying
population expected to create objectivity in this research
The number of samples are 36 correspondent which can be representative the actual condition, they
are experts, bureaucrats, micro hydro user and micro hydro management (Seloliman, Curug Muncar,
Songgotirto, Kombongan, Cinta Mekar micro hydro).
1.4. Formulas and Analytical Methods
Utilization of renewable energy based on local resources were analyzed using a multidimensional
approach scaling (MDS) with Rapfish analysis. MDS is a analysis technique used to determine the
sustainability of resource use from a variety of dimensions viewpoints.
Dimensions to sustainability are consisting of the dimensions of ecological, economic, social,
technological and institutional. Maps generated by the MDS geometry commonly known as spatial or
perceptual map folder, which is a translation of various dimensions related.
Importance Performance Analysis (IPA)
Importance Performance Analysis (IPA) is a method used to analyze the importance and performance
level of Informants/Speakers and MHP stakeholders. subsequently the interest rate and the
performance mapped in Cartesian diagram called Matrix IPA. IPA matrix consists of four quadrants,
each quadrant describes different circumstances. The quadrants are:
a. Quadrant I (attributes to improve)
This quadrant is an area contains attributes that are considered important by the interviewees, but in
fact these attributes are not as expected by speakers. Attributes that include in this quadrant should be
www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 03, Number: 8, June-2014 Page 20
increased in order stakeholders creating improvements for better performance of existing attributes in
this quadrant.
b. Quadrant II (maintain performance)
This quadrant contains attributes considered important by data source and these attributes have been
considered in relatively high level of satisfaction. Attributes in this quadrant must be maintained,
because all the attributes important to make a superior product in speakers perceptions
c. Quadrant III (attributes to maintain)
This quadrant shows attributes that are considered less important and not extraordinary by the
interviewees . Improved attributes are included in this position can be reconsidered because of its
influence on the perceived benefits are very small by speakers.
d. Quadran IV (attributes to de-emphasize)
This quadrant indicates a low level of interest and considering less important attributes to speaker are
while the relatively high performance of stakeholders so that visitors assume that these attributes are
considered too excessive. Attributes are included in this quadrant should be efficient to save
stakeholders costs
Source : (Rangkuti, 2002)
Figure 2 Performance Matrix
Perceptual map can be generated from the analysis using attribute-based MDS. There are several
criteria that can be used to measure how well the map perception (perceptual map) is generated. These
criteria include:
a. R-square (RSQ)
MDS RSQ indicates the proportion of variance in the input data can be explained by the model of
MDS. The higher the RSQ, the better the model of MDS. According Maholtra in Simamora (2005), the
model is acceptable when RSQ ≥ 0.6.
b. Stress
This criterion is the opposite RSQ. Stress indicates the proportion of variance that is not explained by
differences in the model. Stress can be calculated in various ways, but the most commonly used is the
Kruskal stress, with the formula:
From the calculation, it can be interpreted that the lower the stress, the better the resulting MDS
models. Standard used by the Kruskal can be seen in Table 1.
Tabel 1 MDS Kruskal Standard
Stress (%) Goodness of Fit
20 Poor
10 Fair
5 Good
2,5 Excellent
0 Perfect
www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 03, Number: 8, June-2014 Page 21
The method used is the dynamics system use the software dynamics Powersim. The dynamics system
begins from formed by the difference and differential equations. Difference equations used to
formulate biophysical problems as a future state depends on current state and other factors (Forrester,
1989).
The main concept-forming systems dynamics are feedback mechanisms in the form of Causal Loop
Diagrams-CLD and the mechanism of the stock and flow in the form of material or information-SFD
Stock Flow Diagram. Through the methods of systems dynamics models is expected to obtain an
integrated picture of the utilization of renewable energy based on local resources.
Model Validation
Model validation is execute by comparing the data with the simulation results of this empirical data
with the result that model can be expressed as a valid model and can be used to simulate real-world
circumstances.
Validation can also use a simple statistical method to calculate the AME (mean absolute error) of data
simulation results with empirical data. AME formula is as follows:
(Xr - Xs) / Xr x 100%
Where:
Xr = Data reference
Xs = Data Model
II. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
2.1. Sustainability analysis (ecological aspect)
In Figure 3. Shown that the values for the dimensions of ecological sustainability index is 67.22%
(with a sustainability scale 0-100, and the value of the index from 50 to 74.99%). This shows that
based on the criteria Kavanagh (2001), the status of sustainability for ecological dimension in
Location micro hydro power plants (MHP) fall into the category of sustainable enough
Figure 3. Ecology sustainability index Figure 4. Ecology leverage factor
Based on interviews with experts, to increase value of index in the future until it reaches the status of
ongoing, necessary improvements to the sensitive attributes that affect the ecological dimension of the
index value. Based on the analysis results obtained leverage four attributes are sensitive and affect the
level of sustainability of the ecological dimension to control the quality of raw water in the PLTMH
Location: (1) Water discharge, (2) Protected Areas, (3) Conservation and (4) Landmarks Land.
www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 03, Number: 8, June-2014 Page 22
2.2. Sustainability analysis (economic aspect)
Based on the sustainability analysis of the economic dimension of (Figure 5) shows that the value
of the economic dimension of sustainability indices of 63.18%. The value of economic sustainability
index greater than 50. This implies that the economic dimension in the management of PLTMH
entered in the category of sustainable enough (Kavanagh, 2001)
Figure 5. Economic sustainability index Figure 6. Economic leverage factor
Leverage analysis results can be seen as Figure 6, There are three attributes that are sensitive to the
economic dimension of sustainability indices: (1) Increased economic activity, (2) Operating costs
PLTHMH and (3) Impact on society
2.3 Sustainability analysis (social aspect)
In Figure 7. shown that the value of the sustainability index for the social dimension is 52.20% (with
a sustainability scale 0-100, and the index values> 50). This shows that based on the criteria Kavanagh
(2001), the status of the social dimension of sustainability for PLTHMH Locations included in the
sustainable category.
Figure 7. Social sustainability index Figure 8. Social leverage fastor
Based on the leverage analysis results there are three attributes that are most sensitive to the
sustainability value of the social dimension of indices, namely (1) Public participation in
www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 03, Number: 8, June-2014 Page 23
environmental management, (2) program development and community empowerment (3) The response
of local communities to use renewable energy.
2.4 Sustainability analysis (technology aspect)
In this study, the sustainability index value for the technological dimension of is 38.34% (with a
sustainability scale 0-100, and the value of index <50). This shows that based on the criteria Kavanagh
(2001), the status of the dimensions of sustainability for on-site MHP technology fall into the category
of less sustainable.
Figure 9. Technoloy sustainability index Figure 10. Technology leverage factor
Leverage analysis results there are three attributes that are sensitive to the sustainability technological
dimension of indices are (1) the power capacity of the MHP, (2) availability of facilities and
infrastructure MHP, (3) Public access to economic utility. The first sensitive attributes should be noted
that the dimensions of technology continues with good or even very good is the power capacity of the
MHP
2.5 Sustainability analysis (institutional aspect)
In Figure 11 shows that the sustainability index values for the dimensions of institutional is 35.22%
(with a sustainability scale 0-100, and the value of index <50). This shows that based on the criteria
Kavanagh (2001), the status of sustainability for institutional dimension in Location MHP fall into the
category of less sustainable.
www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 03, Number: 8, June-2014 Page 24
Figure 11. Institution sustainability index Figure 12. Instutional leverage factor
Based on the leverage analysis results there are three attributes that are sensitive to the sustainability
indices, institutional dimension which is (1) Coordination bureaucracy, (2) Support from government /
private to the MHP, (3) community empowerment. These attributes need to be managed properly so
that the value of the legal dimension of sustainability indices rose for the future.
2.6 Modeling of Sustainability Micro Hydro
Synthesis results of development builds based on approach of the hard systems and soft systems .
Drive system is the result of input from the dynamic model has been built . While the soft system is the
input of the sustainability analysis ( MDS ) . Synthesis is the basis for the formulation of the results of
a conceptual model of an integrated management policy MHP . The conceptual model suggests a
variety of integrated efforts of all relevant institutions in order to support the achievement of
management objectives in a sustainable MHP . In general , these efforts carried out systematically and
comprehensively through an increase in dimensional approaches Ecology , Technology , Institutional ,
Economic , Social . In particular , the conceptual model emphasizing efforts to achieve management
objectives MHP . To achieve these objectives required public participation in environmental
management to maintain a stable flow of water that would keep the power capacity of micro power
plants , resulting in an increase in economic activity at the site of the MHP . The entire bureaucracy
requires proper coordination in order to achieve sustainable management of MHP .
Management of micro hydro power plant model sustained in this study is divided into three sub model
(1) environment sub model , (2) technology sub model and (3) the economic sub model. The third sub-
model is a series of several variables that are interconnected and interact between one element with
other elements to form a model for the management of micro hydro power plants are sustainable
(Appendix 1).
III. CONCLUSIONS
Results of MDS analysis using the method of adaptation rapfish sustainability index values obtained
for the ecological dimensions is 67.22% with a status quite sustainable, economic dimensions is
63.18% with a fairly sustainable status, the social dimension is 64.20% with a fairly sustainable status,
technological dimensions is 38.34% with less ongoing status, and institutional dimensions of
approximately 35.22% to the ongoing status (Appendix 2).
Based on SEM analysis, MDS and obtained montecarlo five key factors (determinants) for the
successful management of MHP (1) Water discharge, (2) Increased economic activity, (3) Public
www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 03, Number: 8, June-2014 Page 25
participation in environmental management, (4) the power capacity of the MHP, and (5) Coordination
bureaucracy (attachment 2).
Simulation models which is most effective way to support the use of sustainable renewable energy
micro hydro is optimistic simulation models with alternative (Attachment 3), a combination of
policies:
a. The rate of population growth can be reduced from the previous 3.4% to 2.4% per year
b. Average conservation efforts are increasing to 5%
c. The stable technology, spare parts of equipment micro-hydro power plants
d. Economic stability of the community and no additional residents from other villages
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www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 03, Number: 8, June-2014 Page 27
Attachment 1
Microhydro Causal Loop Diagram & Stock-flow Model
Population
Housing
+Industry
+
Land using plan-
+ -Conservation area
-
Water debit
Electicity usage
-
-
Electricity produced
-
-
+
-
+
Economic activity
Buying power
+
+
+
+
Conservation awareness
+
Conservation Effort
Conservation fund
Income
Microhydro capasity
+
+
+
++
+
+
Microhydro Causal Loop Diagram
POPULATION
Growth
Reduction
AVERAGE_OF_ELECTRICITY_PRICE_PERKWH
Laju_Penghasilan
ELECTRICITY_SELLING
Power_Plant_investaton
Electricity_sold
ELECTRICITY_PRODUCED
Power_Plant_Investation_FractionElectricity_Price
Elctricity_Sold_Fraction
Income_Fraction
Reduction_Rate
Growth_Rate
Investation_to_Electricity_Produced_Convertion
Electricity_Usage_Fraction
Electricity_Usage_Rate
Debit_Convertion_Factor
Debit_to_Electrcity_Produced_Convertion
Electricity_Produced_Rate
POWER_PLANT_CAPASITY_PERCENTAGE
ECONOMIC_ACTIVITY
Conservation_Rate
Conservation_Fund_Fraction
WATER_DEBIT_PERCENTAGE
CONSERVATION_LAND_PERCENTAGE
INLET_DEBIT
OUTLET_DEBIT
Outlet_Debit_Fraction
CONSERVATION_EFFORT
Faktor_Pendorong_Upaya_Konservasi
Conservation_PolicyMicrohidro_Management_Inchrage
CONSERVATION_AWARENESS
WATER_DEBIT_CONTINUITY
Degradation_Rate
Conservation_Ratei
Degradation_Fraction
Conservation_Awareness_Convertion_Factor
Stock-flow Model
www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 03, Number: 8, June-2014 Page 28
Attachment 2
Sustainability Analysis and Leverage Factor
Kite diagram for MHP sustainability index (reviewed from raw water quality aspect)
The leverage factor for MHP sustainability
Dimensions The Leverage
Ecology
(1) Water debit,
(2) Conservation area,
(3) Conservartion efforts
(4) Landscap
Economi
(1) Increasing of economic activity,
(2) MHP operational cost
(3) Impact to the comminity
Social
(1) Community participation for environmental management,
(2) Community empowering development program,
(3) Local community response to the renewable energy utilization
Technology
(1) MHP capacity,
(2) MHP infrastructure,
(3) Community access to the economic utility
Institutional
(1) Bureaucracy doordination,
(2) Government/private supporting for MHP,
(3) Community empowerment
www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 03, Number: 8, June-2014 Page 29
Attachment 3
Scenario Model Simulation
Environmental submodel simulation (% conservation area) Environmental submodel simulation (%
debit)
Economic submodel simulation (population) Economic submodel simulation (electricity
sales)
-
Time
PE
RS
EN
_LA
HA
N_K
ON
SE
RV
AS
I
2.005 2.010 2.015
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3
12
3
1
2
3
-
Time
PE
RS
EN
_LA
JU
_D
EB
IT_A
IR
2.005 2.010 2.015
2
4
6
8
10
1 2 3
12
3
12
3
-
Time
PE
ND
UD
UK
2.005 2.010 2.015
7.500
8.000
8.500
1 2 3
1 2 3
12
3
-
Time
PE
NJU
ALA
N_D
AY
A_L
IST
RIK
2.005 2.010 2.015
105.000.000
105.001.000
105.002.000
105.003.000
105.004.000
12 3
12
3
1
2
3