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Modelling Atmospheric CO2 Vertical Profiles
TRANSCOM
PARIS 2005
Christopher Pickett – Heaps
PhD Student (Univ. of Melbourne, AUS)
Supervisor: Dr. Peter Rayner
Currently studying at the LSCE
Thank You To…
Individuals• Dr. Peter Rayner (Supervisor)• Dr. Rachel Law (CSIRO)• Dr. Philippe Ciais & others (LSCE)
Organisations• CSIRO Atmospheric Research• LSCE, CEA• University of Melbourne
Aircraft Campaign/Mission Author(s) and/or Data Providers Period
PROFILES Cape Grim Aerial Profile ArchiveCape Grim Aerial Profile Archive GASLAB, CSIROGASLAB, CSIRO 1991 - 20001991 - 2000
Orleans Aerial Profile Archive LSCE, CEA 1997 - Present
CMDL Aerial Profile Archives P. Tans, CMDL/NOAA 1992 - 2002
CAR, FTL, HAA, HFM, LEF, PFA, RTA, SAN
TROPOSPHERIC Bible (A, B, C) Machida et al. 1998, 1999, 2000
JAL (Japan/Aus) Matsueda & Inoue 1993 - 2003
PEM-WEST A dc8 Newell et al. 1996 1991
PEM-WEST B dc8 Hoell et al., 1997 1994
PEM-TROPICS A Hoell et al., 1999 1996
PEM-TROPICS B Raper et al., 2001 1999
TRACE A Andrae et al. 1996 1992
TRACE P Jacob et al., 2003 2001
CARIBIC Brenninkmeijer et al., 1999 1997 - 2001
STRATOSPHERIC ASHOE JPL, NASA 1994
POLARIS JPL, NASA 1997
SOLVE JPL, NASA 2000
STRAT JPL, NASA 1996
DATA PROVIDERS!!!
Why model CO2 vertical profiles?
Inversion validation
Satellite Validation
Potential use of profile data in atmospheric inversions
Inversion Procedure…
Use of data from 77 obs. stations• Not gap filled• (from GLOBALVIEW)
Use of prior estimates
Inversion Procedure…
Monthly fluxes 1989 – 2002 (14 yrs)
High spatial resolution: 136 regions– 92 land regions 44 ocean regions
One yr of response f’ns from 97-98 winds
15 ‘Sampled Inversions’ removing 20 stations from the network
Forward Model Procedure…
CSIRO CCAM model Flux fields from each inversion inserted
into the CCAM model
• Resolution 200km by 18 lvls• Time-step 1hr• Nudged by NCEP data (Inter-annual)• Model operates within a Cubic-Conformal grid• Advection scheme: NON LINEAR!
– Semi-Lagranian horiz. advection with bi-cubic interpolation of fields– ‘Non-negative constraint’ used for trace gas advection (Bermejo &
Staniforth, 1992) and an ‘a posteriori conservation scheme’ is applied– Vertical advection uses a TDV scheme (Thuburn, 1993)
Model results at the surface (Examples)…
Model results at the surface (sampled inversions)…
Solutions to improve model fit…
Iteration procedure
Solve for flux estimate adjustments and adjust original CO2 flux estimates
Re-run forward model with adjusted flux field
Iteration results at the surface (examples)…
Profile fit examples (CGO)
Profile RMS Time Series (CGO) Mean RMS: 0.45ppm
Profile Bias (mean residual) Time Series (CGO)
What is causing errors in the model profiles?
Non-Linearity Issue
Profiles an instantaneous measurement• Fluxes are monthly
High degree of ‘scatter’ in observed profile
Biomass burning events
Transport
Future plans…
Analyse sampled inversion flux estimates
Similar model comparison with LMDz
Use of profiles to estimate carbon flux
Proposed inter-comparison project• Stay tuned!!!