Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Modelling Long Term Hydrofluorocarbon Emissions
Contribution to India's Global Warming Impact
Mohit SharmaJunior Research AssociateCouncil on Energy, Environment and Water
Climate Day: Negotiating the Climate Cliff: India’s Climate Policy and INDCsNew Delhi, 03 Feb 2015
© Council on Energy, Environment and Water, 2015
|
Historical HFC Emissions From Select Countries (1970-2010)
3 SOURCE: EDGAR- Emission database for global atmospheric research, CEEW analysis
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
USA (Annex- 1) China (Non-Annex 1) OECD Europe (Annex- 1)Japan (Annex- 1) Russia (Annex- 1) India (Non-Annex 1)Mexico (Non-Annex 1) Australia (Annex- 1) Miiddle East (Non-Annex 1)Brazil (Non-Annex 1)
million tonne CO2e
Transition to HFCs in Developed Countries
(estimated share)
US39%
China24%
EU 14%
Japan8%
India2%
|
Key Research Questions
• What is the role of future HFC emissions from India in the global warming footprint of Indian emissions and global HFC emissions?
• What is the potential and cost of HFC emission reductions from various end use sectors, if India moves towards HFCs?
• How can a cost based strategy to inform a policy of leap-frogging away from high GWP HFCs?
4
|
Modelling Framework: First of Its Kind Comprehensive Modelling Analysis from India
5
Combination of Top-down and Bottom-up Analysis
Global and Indian Energy Supply
Top Down GCAM-IIM Framework
Economic and Demographic Drivers
Indian Building Sector Energy Service Demands
COOKING HEATING COOLING LIGHTING APPLIANCES
Bottom Up HFC Calculation Module
EQUIPMENT STOCK End of Life Recollection
Leakage Rates
HFC EMISSIONS
|
BAU Scenario: If India transitions towards HFCs following the ‘HCFC Phase-out Management Plan’
6
|
End-use HFC Emissions under BAU Scenario
7 SOURCE: CEEW Analysis
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Residential AC Commercial AC Commercial RefrigerationMobile AC- Cars Foams Domestic refrigerationAerosols Mobile AC- Buses Transport RefrigerationSolvents Mobile AC- Railways
mill
ion
tonn
e CO
2e
176
126
69
49
25
96
47
4040%
29%
16%
11%
End-use share of HFC emissions (2050)
Transport
Residential Buildings
Commercial Buildings
Total contribution of HFCs to India’s global warming impact in 2050 would be 5%
HFC emissions from end-use sectors will grow significantly: by 130 times from current level to 438 million tonne CO2e in 2050
35
20
18
89
70
30
31
56
41
19
126
16
14
|
Residential AC
Commercial AC
Mobile AC (Cars)
Commercial Refrigeration
Domestic Refrigeration
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Energy-Use related emissions HFC emisssions
million tonne CO2e
Emissions from Energy Consumption versus HFC Emissions
8 SOURCE: CEEW Analysis
35%
Share of HFC in total greenhouse gas emissions is especially high (50%) for commercial refrigeration
Residential AC greenhouse gas emissions: approx. 0.5 billion tonne CO2e in 2050
Major HFC
Emitting Sectors 36%
20%
50%
3.4%
Operational leakages are important variable
|
Key Policy Discussions
9
Moving to low-GWP refrigerants can reduce global
warming impact of the sector by 33-
39% in 2050
Sustainable growth can further reduce the impact
to 45% of emissions under
BAU
Alternatives are available, with their energy
efficiency and climate benefit
Business case for AC industry
to leapfrog away from high
GWP HFCs
• Several companies are experimenting with or marketing products with alternative refrigerants• Adoption rate for room-AC alternatives is too low• Are there any proprietary or IPR issues related to alternatives?• Can propane use be extended to capacity segment where it is viable (< 1.5 TR)• Policy packages for commercially proven alternatives
• Potential phase-down pathways, key concerns for industry and policy-makers: • Cost and flexibility offered by phase-down schedule• Advancement of HPMP deadline for sectors where alternatives are not available• What can we learn from HFC best practices?
• Relative importance of HFC mitigation efforts for GHG emissions reduction • Comparing mitigation cost for HFC abatement to other mitigation options• Cost of alternative phasedown arrangements
|
http://ceew.in
