Modelling needs and resources of older people to 2030 LSHTM contribution and plans

Resources: 15% of EG throughout (focussed some time periods)

c. 12 months of a researcher tba will probably create combined 20 month post using resources available from a related European project.

Also contribution of Linda Pickard to WP4EG in Norway Jan-mid Feb 2007. Plan to

start work on NDA in March.

LSHTM

• -Input into work package 3 (changing family unit and kinship – and through this linkage also with WP 1 – mortality trends)

• Lead on work package 4, Household and Family Resources

NDA – LSHTM Contribution

• WP 4 Brief:

• Modelling of demographic and other determinants of household type and household type transitions

• Modelling of associations between family

• Resources, socio-economic circumstances and social participation

Workplan LSHTM

• 1) Literature review and programme interaction/development: [question: how how we going to co-ordinate literature review work to avoid duplication?].

• 2) Analyses of ONS LS data

• 3) Analyses of survey data, principally ELSA.

Workplan: Analyses based on ONS LS

• 1) Analysis of period changes in marital status mortality differentials using data from the ONS LS (1971-5; 1981-5; 1991-5; 2001-05). – Contribution to WP 3

• 2) Cross sequential analyses of ONS LS to illuminate trends and variations in intergenerational co-residence and proportions moving to live with relatives (builds on earlier work)

• 3) More detailed analysis of household transitions 1991-2001 in ONS LS.

The ONS Longitudinal Study of England & Wales

• Census data for individuals with one of four birthdates enumerated at the 1971 Census (c. 1% of population)

• Maintained through addition of immigrants and new births with LS birth date

• Information from later censuses (1981, 91 & 2001) added

• Linked event data including death of the spouse of sample members and deaths of sample members.

| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Birth ofChild

Birth ofChild Census Emigration Re-entry

Death ofSpouse Census Cancer Death

Proportion (%) of elderly men and women living in households with two or more generations, England and Wales, 1971

and 2001(private household population).

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

65-9 70-4 75-9 80-4 85+0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

65-9 70-4 75-9 80-4 85+

1971 2001

Men Women

Source: Analysis of ONS LS data.

Proportion (%) of people aged 65 and over who changed family/household type between censuses; 1971-81; 1981-91;

1991-2001 by age and family/household type at start of decade

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

So

lita

ry

MC

on

ly

MC

+

LP

+o

the

rs

Co

mp

lex

All

So

lita

ry

MC

on

ly

MC

+

LP

+o

the

rs

Co

mp

lex

All

65-74 75+

Age and family/household type at start of decade

Pe

rce

nt

71-81

81-91

91-01

Source: Analysis of ONS LS data (earlier decades from Glaser & Grundy 1998)

Proportion (%) of people aged 65 and over who remained at same address & in same family/household type at succeeding censuses; 1971-81; 1981-91; 1991-2001 by age and family/household type at

start of decade

Source: Analysis of ONS LS data (earlier decades from Glaser & Grundy 1998)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100S

olit

ary

MC

on

ly

MC

+

LP

+o

the

rs

Co

mp

lex

All

So

lita

ry

MC

on

ly

MC

+

LP

+o

the

rs

Co

mp

lex

All

65-74 75+

Age and family/household type at start of decade

Pe

rce

nt

71-81

81-91

91-01

Results of logistic regression model of proportions making a transition from a private

to an institutional household 1991-2001OR 95% CI P

Age 1.14 1.13-1.15 **

Gender (ref. male) 1.14 1.02-1.27 *

Marital status in 2001 (ref. married)

Never-married 5.92 4.84-7.24 **

Wid./div. 3.63 3.10-4.25 **

Tenure in 1991 (ref. owner)

Not owner 1.24 1.13-1.15 **

Long term illness in 2001 (ref none) 9.35 7.63-11.46 **

Long term illness in 1991 (ref none) 1.26 1.14-1.38 **

Region in 1991 (ref South)

Central 0.93 0.81-1.05 NS

North 1.15 1.03-1.27 *

Wales 0.94 0.77-1.15 NS*P<0.05; **P<0.001 Source: Analysis of ONS Longitudinal Study data

% of women aged 65+ in 1991 in a communal establishment by 2001 and

odds of transition to a communal establishment by parity.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 1 2 3 4+

Parity (no. of births)

Od

ds

of

entr

y to

co

mm

un

al e

stab

lish

men

t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 1 2 3 4+

Parity (no. of births)

%

Odds ratios (95% CI) % changing from private household in 1991 to communal establishment by 2001

Source: Analysis of ONS Longitudinal Study data

controlling for age, marital status, household type in 1991, health indicators and housing tenure.

% of women and men who were in private households in 1991 but in communal

establishments in 2001 by age group and grouped region in 1991

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0

65-9

70-4

75-9

80+

65+

Age g

roup

in 19

91

Percent

All

Wales

North

Central

South

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0

65-9

70-4

75+

65+

Women Men

Source: Analysis of ONS Longitudinal Study

Workplan: survey analysis

• ELSA analysis: Waves 1 and 2, and also 3.

• Analysis of links c. family contact and contacts with friends and social participation more generally.

• Numbers a constraint.