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Modelling surface mass balance and water discharge of tropical glaciers. The case study of three glaciers in La Cordillera Blanca of Perú Presented by: MSc. Maria Fernanda Lozano Supervised by: Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Manfred Koch. Content. Problem statement Objectives Study area - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Modelling surface mass balance and water
discharge of tropical glaciers
The case study of three glaciers in La Cordillera Blanca of Perú
Presented by: MSc. Maria Fernanda LozanoSupervised by: Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Manfred Koch
Content
Problem statement Objectives Study area Available data (temperature,
precipitation, mass balance measurements, radiation data)
Filling data gaps Methods
Energy balance Model Temperature Index ModelModelling mass balance under climate change simulation by REMO
Problem statementChanges in
climate
Alteration of mass balance
Front advance or
Retreatment
Changes in discharge
Identification of causes what will happen
Energy balance models
Temperature Indexmodels
Not large records
Data gaps
Estimation of Future
discharge
Objectives Contribute to the understanding of glacier
climate interaction in tropical areas. Foresee the possible variation on surface water
discharge due to climate change.
Evaluate historical trends of hidroclimatic time series. Fill the gaps in time series Simulate the dynamic of the mass balance and runoff
with a Energy Balance Model (4 years) Simulate runoff of the glaciers with a Temperature Index
model. Examine the sensitivity of stream-flow of surface water
resources under future climate scenarios of global warming
Study Area
Study Area
Available data
Total Number of Station (Santa)
Stations over 4000 m.a.s.l
Stations in Glaciers
Temperature 52 10 5Precipitation 90 11 4Relative humidity 6 5 4Wind Speed 18 4 1Discharge 12 6 5
Available data
Variables 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Radiation, wind and relative humidityMass balanceTemperaturePrecipitationDischargeRelative HumidityWind Speed
Variables 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010RadiationMass balanceTemperaturePrecipitationDischargeRelative HumidityWind Speed
Variables 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010RadiationMass balanceTemperaturePrecipitationDischargeRelative HumidityWind Speed
Variables 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010RadiationMass balanceTemperaturePrecipitationDischargeRelative HumidityWind Speed
Variables 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010RadiationMass balanceTemperaturePrecipitationDischargeRelative HumidityWind Speed
Glacier Huarapasca
Glacier Artesonraju
Glacier Yanamarey
Glacier Uruashraju
Glacier Shallap
Variable 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8TemperaturePrecipitationDischarge
Variable 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8TemperaturePrecipitationDischargeWind Speed
Variable 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8TemperaturePrecipitationDischargeRelative HumidityWind Speed
Variable 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Temperature PrecipitationDischarge
Variable 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8TemperaturePrecipitationDischarge
Variable 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8TemperaturePrecipitationDischarge
Basin Llanganuco
Basin Querococha
Basin Artesoncocha
Basin Paron
Basin Olleros
Basin Quilcay
Time series available in glaciers
Time series available in related basins
Temperature and precipitation
3500 4000 4500 5000 5500
-50
51
0
Mean Daily Temperature vs Elevation
m.a.s.l
oC
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
050
100
150
200
250
300
Monthly Precipitation Querococha
mm
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
010
020
030
040
0
Monthly Precipitation Artesonraju
mm
3800 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5000 5200
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Mean Daily Precipitation vs Elevation
Elevation (m.a.s.l)
mm
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
45
67
89
10
Monthly Temperature Querococha
°C
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Monthly Temperature Artesonraju
°C
Temperature and precipitation
1970 1980 1990 2000
-5.5
-5.0
-4.5
Reanalysis North
Year
oC
1970 1980 1990 2000
60
08
00
10
00
12
00
14
00
Querococha
Year
mm
Mass balance measurementsMass Balance
Time
m.w
.e
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-5-4
-3-2
-10
ArtesonrajuUruashrajuYanamarey
ELA
Time
m.a
.s.l
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
4850
4900
4950
5000
5050
5100
ArtesonrajuUruashrajuYanamarey
Y-9
Y-16
08-09-05
06-10-04
06-05-76
02-09-0317-07-02
22-06-0115-11-00
23-10-99
29-12-98
09-10-9702-10-96
28-09-95
23-09-94
14-10-93
30-09-9203-10-9124-10-8909-08-8824-09-87
20-05-8629-05-85
28-06-8405-05-83
20-05-82
21-05-81
10-05-80
1948
Y-18
31-08-06 23/01/09
GLACIAR YANAMAREY
27-09-07
junio 2007Derrumbe ocurrido en el mes de
27-09-07
Y-16
Morrena cubiertode hielo, producto
de pequeñas avalanchas
Retreatment of the Yanamarey glacier since 1948.
1948 1986 1993 2001 2009
VARIACIONES DEL FRENTE DE LOS GLACIARES MONITOREADOS EN LA CORDILLERA BLANCA
-1000
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
19
48
68
70
71
72
74
19
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
20
00
01
02
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Años
Retr
oce
so (
m)
ALPAMAYO BROGGI URUASHRAJU YANAMAREY GAJAP PASTORURI
Glacier front variation in glaciers of the Cordillera Blanca
Energy data in ArtesonrajuShortwave incoming radiation
ArtesamaTime
Wm
-2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
100
200
300
400
Shortwave reflected radiation
ArtesamaTime
Wm
-2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
050
150
250
Longwave incoming radiation
Time
Wm
-2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
20
02
50
30
03
50
Longwave emitted radiation
TimeW
m-2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
29
03
00
31
03
20
Station Min 1st Q Median Mean 3rd Q Max SD VARSwin (Wm-2) 110.00 182.40 227.50 234.60 282.60 408.80 65.76 4325.37
Swref (Wm-2) 6.97 60.56 91.01 95.64 126.50 248.14 48.23 2326.76
Lwatm (Wm-2) 194.30 254.20 290.70 280.60 311.10 369.40 36.36 1322.31
Lwsurf (Wm-2) 287.70 303.90 309.70 308.50 313.50 320.00 6.80 46.27
Rnette (Wm-2) -38.79 44.26 80.68 87.87 123.02 266.38 56.51 3193.47
Filling gaps in time series Multilinear regression STL
Original Temperature Artesonraju
years
T o
C
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-10
12
34
5
Filled Temperature Artesonraju
Multilinear regression methodyears
T o
C
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-10
12
34
5
Nash Coefficient-Filled Temperature Artesonraju
years
Nas
h C
oeffi
cien
t
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Data with interpolated gaps
Time
AT
RS
win
c
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
010
020
030
040
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 20080 5 10 15 20 25 30
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Lag
AT
RS
win
c
ACF
Initially interpolated data
100
200
300
400
da
ta
-50
050
100
sea
son
al
230
235
240
245
tre
nd
-150
-50
050
150
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
rem
ain
de
r
time
Harmonic analysis
Time
AT
RS
win
c
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Energy balance model (Hock) Distributed model. Works in a subdiurnal or
diurnal temporal resolution. Solves the energy balance
equation on the glacierized area (calculation per each grid of DTM).
Calculates water discharge from the melting of three areas (firn, snow and ice) and the liquid precipitation.
Accounts for the spatial distribution of topographic shading.
Calculates individual energy balance components
RLHGSM QQQQLLGGQ )(/
wf
M
L
QM
ACCUMULATION:
Precipitation (temperature)
ABLATION
Melting and Sublimation
Energy balance model (Hock)
Global radiation
Main station Extrapolation
1.Interpolation of G directly
2. Separating G into direct and diffuse
radiation considering terrain effects
Amounts of diffuse radiation
Cloud Cover
Gs/Ics
Gg=Icg*(Gs/Ics)
the radio of global radiation to top of the atmosphere G/IToA
Is=Gs-Ds
Ig=Icg*(Is/Ics)
Direct radiation
Diffuse radiation
Energy balance model (Hock)
Albedo
Extrapolation
Snow Albedo Variable:
Number of days since last snowfall
Air temperature
Assumed constant according to the surface
Ice Albedo Variable:
Assumed increase of 3%(100m-1)
Account for the tendency of debris to accumulate towards the glacier.
Variable for snow and ice.
Energy balance model (Hock)
Long inc.radiation
Long out.radiation
Main station Extrapolation
It requires the estimation of Lo at climate
station and it is assumed invariant for all grids.
Lsky:
Lterrain:
Linc in each grid is calculated as the sum of Lsky and Lterrain in each grid.
Direct measurements of longwave outgoing radiation
Linear decrease with increasing elevation when surface temperature is negative, if temperature is 0 Lout is spatially constant
44SSsL TTE
Energy balance model (Hock)
000
2
0
0
/ln/ln
6323.0eeu
zzzz
k
PLQ zz
ewL
Sensibleheat
Latentheat
Qh proportional to Temperature (Tz) andWind speed (zu)
Calculated from the aerodynamic approach
Calculated from the aerodynamic approach
000
2
/ln/lnTTu
zzzz
kcQ zz
TwpH
QL proportional to vapour pressure (ez) and Wind speed (zu)
L Latent heat of evaporation or sublimation
ρ density of air
Po mean atmospheric pressure at the sea level
Cp specific heat capacity of air
k Karman´s constant
To surface temperature
Eo vapor pressure of the surface
Zow, zoT and zoe
are the roughness lengths fro logarithmic profiles of wind speed, temperature and water vapor
Energy balance model (Hock)
Conditions Daily resolution No separation of direct
and diffuse radiation Albedo constant Snow water equivalent
interpolated with linear interpolation.
Discharge
Artesoncocha (r2=0.64)Time
m3
/s
2004.5 2005.0 2005.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5 Qmeas
Qcalc
Temperature Index Model (Hock)
Melt=(DDF/24)*T(timestep) T>0Melt=0 T<=0
Melt=(MF/24+ rsnow/ice*I)*T(timestep) T>0Melt=0 T<=0
Melt=(MF+rsnow/ice*I*Globs/Is)*T(timestep) T>0Melt=0 T<=0
DDF= Degree day factor mm/oCdía MF= Melt factor mm/h K rsnow/ice= radfactorice mm
m2/WhK
Melting is related to the positive air temperatures and the amount of time that this temperature exceeds the melting point.
This relation uses a factor of proportionality (DDF) which shows the decrease of water content in the snow cover or ice by 1°C above freezing in 24 hours.
Incorporates clear sky solar radiation (I)accounts for the spatial topographic variability
Incorporates global measured radiation
Which account for deviations on clear sky
conditions
Temperature Index Model (Hock)
Discharge
ArtesoncochaTime
m3
/s
2004.4 2004.6 2004.8 2005.0 2005.2 2005.4 2005.6
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
r2
fm ice 4 5 6 7 8 9
8 0.5605 0.6166 0.648 0.6617 0.6622 0.6512
9 0.6044 0.6504 0.6712 0.6739 0.6631 0.648
10 0.637 0.6715 0.6812 0.6724 0.6499 0.616
11 0.6578 0.6801 0.6777 0.657 0.6226 0.5769
12 0.6665 0.6756 0.6606 0.6277 0.5811 0.5232
13 0.6633 0.6581 0.6298 0.5841 0.525 0.4548
14 0.6482 0.6274 0.5853 0.5264 0.4544 0.3717
15 0.621
fm ice 1 2 3 4
13 0.2384 0.526 0.6312 0.6633
14 0.2791 0.5489 0.6347 0.6482
15 0.3134 0.5642 0.6282 0.621
16 0.5719 0.6116 0.5816
fm snow
Simulation of glacier discharge in future scenarios of climate change
MPI Regional Climate Model Remo
Horizontal Resolution 50Km x 50 Km (0.44°x 0.44°)
Variables: Temperature, surface pressure, horizontal wind components, precipitation and humidity.
Domain. South América
Time step: 240 s
Forcing Data: ERA Interim
Simulation Period: 1989-2008
Future Simulation: until 2100 (in process)
THANK YOU
Mass Balance Year of positive mass balance Year of negative mass balance