Models for crop diseases: Overview of approaches & scales

  • View
    216

  • Download
    2

Embed Size (px)

Text of Models for crop diseases: Overview of approaches & scales

  • Modelsforcropdiseases:Overviewofapproaches&scales

    SSavary,PEsker,NMcRoberts,LWillocquet,TCaffi,VRossi,JYuen,ADjurle,LAmorim,ABergaminFilho,

    NCastilla,ASparks,JAvelino,CAllinne,KGarrett

  • Background Modelingplantdiseases:manydifferent

    approachesused,withdifferentobjectives Twomainobjectivesinmodelingplantdisease:

    Modelingthedynamicsofplantdiseaseepidemics Modelingcroplosses theeffectsofplantdisease(pest)on

    cropgrowthandperformance

    Withtheultimategoalofimprovingdiseasemanagement,andso:

    Averylargenumberofpathosystem(Host+Pathogen)specificdiseasemanagementmodels

  • Briefoverviewofepidemiologicalsimulationmodelling

    Typesofepidemicsandmodels(monocyclic;polycyclic;mixedmonocyclicpolyclic)

    Spatializedmodels(explicit,implicitspatialization)

    PrimaryinoculumPolyeticprocessesGeneticdiversityofthepathogen

    epidemiological modeling

  • EpidemiologicalstructuralpatternsPolycycle FractionHostTissue

    Mixed ShootorTiller

    MonocycleFruitingBody PanicleorHeadSeed orsoilbornediseases

    Vectorborne

    epidemiological modeling

  • Anepidemiologicalexample:EPIRICE

    D

    C

    'correction' factor

    RI

    healthy sites

    'removed' sites

    Rateof infection

    H

    L I P

    total diseased sites

    senesced sites

    S

    Rateof growth

    RG

    RS

    Rc

    basic relative infection rate

    latent sites

    infectious sites

    Vanderplank J.E., 1963. Plant Diseases. Epidemics and Control. Academic Press, New York.Zadoks J.C. 1971., Systems analysis and the dynamics of epidemics. Phytopathology 61:600-610Savary, S., Nelson A., Willocquet L., Pangga I., Aunario J., 2012. Modelling and mapping potential epidemics of rice diseases globally. Crop Protection, In Press.

    epidemiological modeling

  • spatialscalesofplantdiseaseepidemicsinEPIRICE

    - local infections on the foliage- 1 lesion = a small fraction of leaf area- ex.: leaf blast; brown spot

    - rapidly expanding infections on the foliage- 1 lesion = a leaf- ex.: bacterial blight

    - infections affecting entire tillers- 1 lesion = a tiller- ex.: sheath blight

    - systemic infections- 1 lesion = a plant- ex.: tungro epidemiological modeling

  • Avg1997-2008

    Std1997-2008

    Brown spot

    epidemiological modeling

  • Avg1997-2008

    Std1997-2008

    Leaf blast

    epidemiological modeling

  • Anotherepidemiologicalexample:Modellinggrapevinepowderymildewepidemicsunder

    differentCCscenarios

    Caffarra,A.,Rinaldi,M.,Eccel,E.,Rossi,V.,&Pertot,I.(2012).Modellingtheimpactofclimatechangeontheinteractionbetweengrapevineanditspestsandpathogens:Europeangrapevinemothandpowderymildew.Agriculture,Ecosystems&Environment,148,89101.

    Modelsimulationsofpowderymildewseverity(%)inascenariooflowintermediateconduciveness(blacksymbols)andhighconduciveness(greysymbols)forthediseaseaccordingtoscenariosA2andB2forCembra(higherelevation).10yearmovingaveragelinesaresuperimposedontheseries.

  • Challenges(J.Yuen,pers.comm.)

    timescale(epidemiologicalprocessesstudied)

  • Briefoverviewofcroplosssimulationmodelling

    Crop(agrophysiological)growthmodelswithdamagemechanisms

    DamagemechanismsRI RUEmodels multiplediseases(pests)models

    Yield and yield loss modeling

  • Productionlevels

    Potential

    Attainable

    Actual

    Yielddefining factors

    Yield limiting factors

    Yield reducing factors

    radiationtemperaturecrop phenologyphysiological propertiescrop architecture

    waternitrogenphosphorus

    pestsdiseasesweedspollutantscalamities

    Productionlevels:

    Rabbinge,R.1993.Theecologicalbackgroundoffoodproduction.In:Cropprotectionandsustainableagriculture.CibaFoundation77.ChadwickDJ,MarshJ,Eds.JohnWiley&Sons,Chichester,UK.

    VanIttersum,M.K.,andRabbinge,R.1997.Ecologyforanalysisandquantificationofagriculturalinputoutputcombinations.FieldCropsRes.52:197208.

    Yield and yield loss modeling

  • Simulationmodellingofyieldlossesexamples

    Crop Pest Reference

    Rice Leaf blast Bastiaans, 1993

    Rice Multiple diseases Pinnschmidt et al, 1994

    Rice Multiple pests Willocquet et al, 2000; 2002; 2004

    Rice, wheat Multiple pests Aggarwal et al, 2006a; 2006bWheat Aphids Rossing, 1991

    Wheat Leaf rust Roermund & Spitters, 1990

    Wheat Multiple pests Willocquet et al, 2008

    Potato Multiple pests Johnson, 1992

    Yield and yield loss modeling

  • DamagemechanismsofcroppestinjuriesDamagemechanism

    Physiologicaleffect Effectinacropgrowthmodel Examplesofpests

    Lightstealer Reducestheinterceptedradiation

    ReducesthegreenLAI Pathogensproducinglesionsonleaves

    Leafsenescenceaccelerator

    Increasesleafsenescence,causesdefoliation

    Reducesleafbiomassbyincreasingtherateofleafsenescence

    Foliarpathogenssuchasleafspottingpathogens,downymildews

    Tissueconsumer Reducesthetissuebiomass Outflowsfrombiomassesoftheinjuredorgans

    Defoliatinginsects

    Standreducer Reducesthenumberandbiomassofplants

    Reducesbiomassofallorgans Dampingofffungi

    PhotosyntheticRatereducer

    Reducestherateofcarbonuptake

    ReducestheRUE Viruses,rootinfectingpests,steminfectingpests,somefoliarpathogens

    Turgorreducer Disruptsxylemandphloemtransport

    ReducestheRUE,acceleratesleafsenescence

    Vascular,wiltpathogens

    Assimilatesapper

    Removessolubleassimilatesfromhost

    Outflowsassimilatesfromthepoolofassimilates

    Suckinginsects,e.g.aphids,someplanthoppers,biotrophic fungiexportingassimilatesfromhostcells

    Rabbinge,R.,andVereyken,P.H.1980.Theeffectsofdiseasesorpestsuponhost.Z.Pflanzenk.Pflanzensch.87:409422;Rabbinge,R.,andRijsdijk,P.H.1981.Diseaseandcropphysiology:amodelerspointofview.Pages201220in:EffectsofDiseaseonthePhysiologyoftheGrowingPlants.P.G.Ayres,ed.CambridgeUniv.Press,Cambridge,UK;Boote,K.J.,Jones,J.W.,Mishoe,J.W.,andBerger,R.D.1983.Couplingpeststocropgrowthsimulatorstopredictyieldreductions.Phytopathology73:15811587;SavaryS,WillocquetL.2014.SimulationModelinginBotanicalEpidemiologyandCropLossanalysis.APSnetEducationCenter.ThePlantHealthInstructor.DOI:10.1094/PHIA2014031401.

    Yield and yield loss modeling

    and an eighth mechanism: reproductive tissue transformation (smuts and gall midges) A. Djurle, Pers. Comm.

  • Incorporatingdifferentdamagemechanismsintoacropgrowthmodel:GENEPEST

    Light Stealer

    Photosy ntheticrate reducer

    Leaf senescenceaccelerator

    Assimilate sapper

    Rate of assimilate div ersion

    Leaf consumer

    rrsenL

    Turgor reducer

    Turgor reducer

    RUE

    RADk

    Pool

    Leaf B StemB StorB RootB

    PartS

    PartL

    PartSO

    PartR

    RG

    LAI

    RremL

    RTransloc

    Yield and yield loss modeling

    SavaryS,WillocquetL.2014.SimulationModelinginBotanicalEpidemiologyandCropLossanalysis.APSnetEducationCenter.ThePlantHealthInstructor.DOI:10.1094/PHIA2014031401.

  • RICEPESTstructure

    Yield and yield loss modeling

    SavaryS,WillocquetL.2014.SimulationModelinginBotanicalEpidemiologyandCropLossanalysis.APSnetEducationCenter.ThePlantHealthInstructor.DOI:10.1094/PHIA2014031401.

  • PestsincludedinWHEATPEST Diseases

    brownrust,yellowrust,powderymildew,Septoriatriticiblotch,Stagonosporanodorumblotch

    eyespot,sharpeyespot Fusariumstemrot Fusariumheadblight takeall BYDV

    Insects aphids

    Weeds

    WillocquetL,AubertotJN,LebardS,RobertC,LannouC,SavaryS,2008.Simulatingmultiplepestdamageinvaryingwinterwheatproductionsituations.FieldCropsResearch107:1228.

    Yield and yield loss modeling

  • WHEATPESTstructure

    LEAFBM STEMBM EARBM

    POOL STEMP

    DTEMP

    RG

    ROOTBM

    k

    RUE

    DVS

    RROOTRLEAF RSTEM REAR

    CPRCPSTCPL CPE

    RADTM IN TM AX

    RSENL

    RDIST

    TBASE

    RRSENL

    FHB

    RSAP

    ST

    RDIV

    BYDV SHY EYS FST TAK WD

    APH

    PM

    BR

    YR

    SN

    SLALAI

    Yield and yield loss modeling

    WillocquetL,AubertotJN,LebardS,RobertC,LannouC,SavaryS,2008.Simulatingmultiplepestdamageinvaryingwinterwheatproductionsituations.FieldCropsResearch107:1228.

  • Linkingepidemiological andyieldlossmodeling:

    Example:combiningEPIRICEandRICEPEST(CourtesyAdamSparks,IRRI)

    epidemiological & yield and yield loss modeling

  • Example:simulatedyieldgainsfromhostplantresistancetoricebacterialblight

    (CourtesyAdamSparksetal.,IRRI)

    epidemiological & yield and yield loss modeling

  • Muchprogresshasbeenmadeonthemodelingoftheeffectsofharmfulorganimsoncrops(damagemechanisms)

    Asaresult,itispossibletomodelcroplossescausedbyoneormultipleinjuries(diseases,pests)inagenericmanner(i.e.,anycrop,anydisease/pest)

    AssessmentofachievementsandneedsProgress:damagemechanisms&models

  • AssessmentofachievementsandneedsProgress:lossestomultipleinjuries

    Diseasemanagementoftenhastoaccountfortheexistenceofmultiplediseasesandpestsinordertoberelevantandefficient

    Fromacroploss cropperformanceperspective:addressingmultiplediseases(andpests)isdesirable

    Yieldlossmodels(e.g.,RICEPEST,WHEATPEST)incorporatingmultipleinjuries(diseases,insects,weeds)havebeendeveloped

  • Buttheavailabilityofinjuryfunctions thetimecourseofdiseases/pestsunderactualfieldconditions isamajorobstacle

    AssessmentofachievementsandneedsObstacle:actualfieldinjurydata

  • Evenforthemainfoodcropsworldwide(rice,wheat,maize,soybean,potato),thereisacriticalshortageoffielddataonobserved(multiple)injuries

    Theshortageoffielddata notthelimitationofprocessknowle