Module 1Basic concepts and understanding the environment-climate change-development linkages

Country-led environmental and climate change mainstreaming

Are we transgressing “planetary boundaries”?

• The Holocene: Earth’s environment has been stable for the past 10,000 years

• Since the Industrial Revolution, human actions are leading to significant environmental change

• Are we moving into the Anthropocene?

• Could human actions lead to a rupture in the stability the planet has enjoyed for the past 10,000 years?

• Two underlying drivers of change:

• Population: 4x increase in last 100 years, reaching 7 billion

• Economic activity: 20x GDP increase in last 100 years2

The Holocene

3Source: Rockström et al (2009a).

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Source: Rockström et al,(2009b)

Pla

neta

ry B

ou

nd

arie

s

• Species becoming extinct 100-1,000x natural rate

• Human processes: conversion of 120 million tN2/year, more than effects from all natural processes combined

• About 20 million t P mined/year–8x natural background rate of influx

• Surface ocean pH has decreased about 0.1 units since pre-industrial times – 100x than any other time in the last 20 million years

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• About 25% of river basins run dry before reaching the oceans due to freshwater use

• Land use change into agricultural land: average rate of 0.8%/yr over the last 40-50 years

• Human activities have doubled global concentration of most aerosols

• More than 140,000 chemical products are commercially available (UNEP, 2013)

• Toxicity data available only for a few thousand, with virtually no knowledge of combined effects

• CO2 concentration approx. 400 ppm vs 350 upper safe limit

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Is climate change real?

• IPCC 5th Assessment Report:- “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the

1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased”.

• Observed trends:- Recent years warmest on record- Accelerating increase in global surface temperature and ocean

temperature- Accelerating sea level rise

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Climate Variability vs Climate Change

• Climate variability: shorter-term variations (daily, seasonal, annual, inter-annual, several years)

• Climate change: long-term trends in climate averages (decades or longer)

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Environment Canada (2012)

Climate change cannot be attributed to natural forcings

Source: IPCC (2013) 5th Assessment Report, WG I 9

Source: IPCC (2013) 5th Assessment Report, WG I

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Observations: intensity of cyclones

Worldwide: %age of Category 1 cyclone (blue curve), sum of Category 2 and 3 (green curve), sum of category 4 and 5 (red curve) on 5 years period. Dashed lines are averages for each category from 1970

to 2004 (Source: Petit & Prudent 2008, p. 42, from Webster et al 2005) 11

The greenhouse effect

12Source: WWF/IPCC,

http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/

Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP)

Source: IPCC 2013 5AR WGI

Source: Herzog (2005)– WRI

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Sources of GHG emissions

What are the main consequences?

Biophysical impacts

Changes in T°Changes in rainfall

patternsShifts in seasonsMore frequent or

severe storms, floods, droughts

Raised sea levelErosion, desertification

Changes in water quality/availability

Changes in ecosystemsBiodiversity lossDisease & pest outbreaks, ...

Socioeconomic impacts

Damage to or destruction of infrastructure

Reduced food security, malnutrition

Economic disruption, loss of livelihoods, social disruption

Increased mortality and morbidity

Reduced availability of hydropower

Conflicts, population displacement, human

migrations, ...15

Development – Environment links

Climate,environment &

natural resources

Impacts

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Human activities

Opportunities, risks & constraints

AdaptationMitigation

DRR

17Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Figure B, p. 7.

Environment – climate change –development linkages

Climate change:

- an environmental issue

- a development issue

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Source: Millennium Ecosystem

Assessment (2005) Figure B, p. 7.

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Climate Change

Environmental degradation

Risk: The combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences

ProbabilityProbability

ConsequencesConsequences

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The Times of India, 2012

World Preservation Foundation, 2010

Liz Hempel, 2011

Resilience – Vulnerability - Risk

Resilience

• “Resilience is the ability of an individual, a household, a community, a country or a region to withstand, adapt and to quickly recover from stresses and shocks”

• EU Communication on Resilience (2012)

Rationale for DRR & Resilience

Source: European Commission (2014)

Climate change and environment

• Climate change is a theme to be addressed with other environmental issues:• Climate change exacerbates certain environmental trends

and problems

• Environmental management has an impact on climate change

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Credit: Proyecto Rio Hurtado, EuropeAid Photo Library

Credit: Vietnamese journalist, EuropeAid Photo Library

Sustainable development and the Green Economy

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• Green Economy An economy that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities” (UNEP, 2011)

• It must contribute to SD

• An an operational level:“An economy whose growth in income and employment is driven by investments that:

• Reduce carbon emissions and pollution;• Enhance energy and resource efficiency;• Prevent the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem

services”. (EMG Report, 2011)

Which development pathway are we following?

Environment

Social dimension

Economy

Environment

Social dimension

Sustainable development

Economy

For example…

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…does it impact on the environment and climate

change?...

AGRICULTURE

Contributes 13-15% of global carbon emissions (rising to 30-32% if we include land use change, land degradation and deforestation) (EC, 2012)

Is the main driver behind deforestation

Contributes to pollution of soil, air and water, and loss of biodiversity Leads to adverse health effects (direct and indirect)

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Agriculture

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AGRICULTURE

…is it affected by environmental degradation and climate change?...

Soil erosion and land degradation limit agricultural productivity in many developing countries

Freshwater availability and quality affect crop yields. Climate change is exacerbating these downward trends

Drought intensity and frequency are increasing in various countries due to climate change

Nearly 1 billion people live in chronic hunger, and by 2050 there will be a need to produce to 70% more food globally (EC, 2012)

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Agriculture

In least developed countries, 1/3 of death and disease is a direct result of environmental causes (WHO, 2010)

Environmental factors influence 85 out of the 102 categories of disease and injury listed in The World Health Report (WHO)

Climate change that has occurred since the 1970s has caused over 140,000 excess deaths each year, and climate change is estimated to add at least US$2-4 billion in annual health sector costs (WHO, 2012)

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What about health?

Environmental burden of disease (DALYs/1000 population)

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Source: WHO (2006)

DALY = disability-adjusted life year: measure of overall disease burden, expressed as the number of years lost due to ill-health, disability or early death

In 1 out of 3 countries in sub-Saharan Africa with available data, more than half of the schools have no toilet and more than 50% of schools don’t have access to potable water (UNESCO UIS, 2012)

Malaria causes between 4-10 million days of school absenteeism per year (Partnership for Child Development et al, 2009)

In the year 2000 floods in Cambodia, at least 1,000 schools were destroyed and about 500,000 primary and secondary school children affected (ADPC, 2008)

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…education?

Environment, Climate Change and MDGs

Potential impacts on

MDGs

Eradicate extreme poverty

& hunger

Reduce child mortality

Promote gender equality &

empower women

Improve maternal

health Combat major diseases

Ensure environmental sustainability

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e.g. Adverse effects on food

security

e.g. Increased incidence of waterborne

diseases

e.g. Dependence on livelihoods put

at risk by CC

e.g. Higher incidence of

anaemia resulting from malaria

e.g. Heat-related mortality & illnesses

e.g. Increased stress on ecosystems and

biodiversity

Source: OECD (2009a)

Soil erosion, salinisation, land

degradationPolluted water

and air…

Scarcity/quality of NR managed by

women

Environmental causes of disease

Achieving universal primary

education

e.g. effects on school

attendance

Positive and negative poverty environment linkages

35Poverty reduction

Envir

onm

enta

l pre

serv

ati

on

Win-Lose

Environmental management that excludes local communities (e.g. lack of benefit-sharing, dislocation of communities)

Win-Win

Sustainable livelihoods (e.g. sustainable agriculture, forestry, fisheries, ecosystem management, adaptation to climate change)

Lose-Lose

Lack of or inadequate environmental management negatively affecting the poor (e.g. lack of adaptation to climate change, poor environmental health conditions)

Lose-Win

Short-term livelihoods (e.g. overgrazing, overfishing, deforestation)

Source: UNDP-UNEP (2009), p.8

Moving to green, climate-resilient and low-emission development

• Environmental and climate-resilient development and low-emission development result from mainstreaming in policymaking and planning

Climate change adaptation

mainstreaming

Mainstreaming of climate change

mitigation

Low-emission development

Climate-resilient development

The three approaches are complementary

In all cases, focus on co-benefits

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Environmental mainstreaming

Green development

Building on Multilateral Environmental Agreements’ commitments• MEAs require elaboration of diagnoses and Action

Plans, e.g.

- Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD); Desertification (UNCDD); wetlands (Ramsar); POPs (Stockholm Convention); etc.

• These are a good starting point for addressing the environmental challenge

• They require COORDINATION and HARMONISATION amongst them and with national and sectoral policy-making and planning processes

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NAPAs, NAMAs and NAPs

• NAPAs = national adaptation programmes of action

• Help LDCs build national capacities and identify priority adaptation projects with developmental benefits

• NAMAs = nationally appropriate mitigation actions

• Voluntary mitigation measures

• Process launched June, 2013

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• NAP = national adaptation plan

• Helpful to identify medium- and long-term adaptation needs and developing/implementing strategies and programmes to address them

• Process launched June, 2013

Seizing opportunities• Green growth

- ‘A way to pursue economic growth and development, while preventing environmental degradation, biodiversity loss and unsustainable natural resource use’(OECD, 2010b)

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• Green jobs

Source: ILO (2013)

Developing synergies: green development - climate change adaptation & mitigation

• Quite frequently measures aimed at green development, adaptation and mitigation reinforce each other- e.g. reduced tillage agriculture enhances carbon

sequestration in soils while supporting soil moisture retention - increasing resilience to dry spells – and reducing soil erosion

- e.g. sustainable reforestation may simultaneously enhance carbon stocks, enhance the adaptive capacity of local communities (by offering new livelihood opportunities), act as protection against soil erosion, enhance water capture, and increase biodiversity

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• Mitigation should:• Be compatible with adaptation policies and requirements

• Rely on environmentally sustainable practices

• e.g. unsustainable agrofuels may be a threat to food security, water availability and ecosystems

• Not result in increased vulnerability to climate change

• Adaptation should: • Consider emissions and environmental impacts, e.g.

• agricultural intensification addressing food security may increase GHG emissions from use of fertilisers and increase water pollution

• increased adoption of air conditioning to adapt to heat waves may result in increased emissions from fossil energy use

• water capture to address drought periods may affect biodiversity, and irrigation systems may lead to soil salinisation

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• The Earth has enjoyed a stable environment over the past 10,000 years, which is now being compromised due to human action (Holocene Anthropocene)

• Thresholds in key variables are already being exceeded:- Climate Change- Loss of biodiversity- Nitrogen cycle

• Other variable are approaching safe limits, e.g.- Phosphorous cycle- Ocean acidification

• For some we still don’t have enough data- Chemical pollution- Atmospheric aerosol loading 42

Recap – Key messages

• Climate change is real, and is driven to a large extent by emissions of greenhouse gases linked to human activities

- Fossil energy use, deforestation and agriculture are the main culprits

• Climate change is notably characterised by rising temperatures, rising sea level, and more frequent/intense extreme weather events

• Changes in climate system parameters generate a wide range of biophysical and socioeconomic impacts

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Recap – Key messages (2)

Recap – Key messages (3)

• Environment and climate change are intimately related to development• development initiatives affect the environment and

contribute to climate change• state of the environmental and climate change

affect development

• There is a continuum of responses to address environmental sustainability and climate change, from addressing drivers of vulnerability to specifically confronting impacts 44

Recap – Key messages (4)

• The path to development should be planned so as to be green, climate-resilient and low-emission

• Environmental sustainability, adaptation and mitigation are complementary responses with potential to generate significant ‘co-benefits’ in terms of development

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• European Commission (2009) Guidance on the Integration of Environment and Climate Change in Development Cooperation. EuropeAid Tools and Methods Series, Guidelines No 4. Available from: http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/infopoint/

• IPCC website: www.ipcc.ch

• IPCC (2007b) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

• IPCC (2007c) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

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Key references

Key references (2)• IPCC (2013) WG I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.

• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment website: www.unep.org/meaweb/en/index.aspx

• UNEP (2012) Global Environment Outlook GEO5, Environment for the future we want. UNEP.

• UNEP Environmental Data Explorer: http://geodata.grid.unep.ch/

• Volunteer-driven information website ‘CO2 Now’: http://co2now.org/

• WWF – Climate change explained: http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/

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• ADPC (2008) A study on impact of disasters on the education sector in Cambodia. Available from: http://www.adpc.net/v2007/ikm/ONLINE%20DOCUMENTS/downloads/2008/Mar/MDRDEducationCambodiaFinal_Mar08.pdf

• Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project: http://berkeleyearth.org • Environment Canada (2012) Climate change concepts. http://www.cccsn.ec.gc.ca/?page=scen-

intro Accessed 11/06/2013.• European Commission (2012) Integration of environment, climate change and the green

economy in the agricultural sector. Unpublished draft.• European Commission (2014) Building effective resilience through risk-informed humanitarian

and development programming. Joint ECHO DEVCO workshop, 10• Herzog T. (2005) World Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005. Working paper, World Resources

Institute, Washington, DC. Available from: http://www.wri.org/publication/world-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-2005

• International Labour Organisation – ILO (2013) Green jobs becoming a reality, Progress and outlook 2013. ILO: Geneva.

• IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and II to the Fourth Assessment Report. [Core Writing Team, Pachaury R.K. & Reisinger A. (eds.)] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

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References

• IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

• McGray H., Hammill A. & Bradley R. (2007) Weathering the Storm: Options for Framing Adaptation and Development. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. Available from: http://pdf.wri.org/weathering_the_storm.pdf

• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC. Available from: http://www.maweb.org/en/Synthesis.aspx

• OECD (2009a) Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation: Policy guidance. OECD Publishing, Paris. [Read-only, browse-it edition] Available from: http://browse.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/pdfs/browseit/4309171E.PDF

• OECD (2010b) Interim Report of the Green Growth Strategy: Implementing our commitment for a sustainable future. Meeting of the OECD Council at Ministerial Level, 27-28 May 2010. C/MIN(2010)5. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris. Available from: http://www.oecd.org/document/3/0,3343,en_2649_37465_45196035_1_1_1_1,00.html

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References (2)

References (1)

• Partnership for Child Development; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme and The World Bank (2009). Malaria Control in Schools, a toolkit on effective education sector responses to malaria in Africa. Available from: http://www.schoolsandhealth.org/Documents/Malaria%20Toolkit%20for%20Schools%202009.pdf

• Petit J. & Prudent G. (eds) (2008, reprint 2010) Climate Change and Biodiversity in the European Union Overseas Entities. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Brussels, Belgium. Available from: http://data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2010-064.pdf

• Rockström et al (2009a) A safe operating space for humanity. Nature, Vol 461, 24 September, 2009.

• Rockström et al (2009b) Planetary Boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society, 14(2):32.

• UNDP-UNEP (2009) Mainstreaming Poverty-Environment Linkages into Development Planning: A Handbook for Practitioners. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative.

• UNEP (2011) Towards a green economy: pathways to sustainable development and poverty eradication. UNEP: Nairobi.

• UNEP (2013) GCO Global Chemical Outlook. Towards sound management of chemicals. UNEP.

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References (3)

References (4)

• UNESCO UIS (2012) School and teaching resoures in sub-Saharan Africa, Analysis of the 2011 UIS regional data collection on education. Available from: http://www.uis.unesco.org/FactSheets/Documents/ib9-regional-education-africa-2012-en-v5.pdf

• WHO (2006) Preventing disease through healthy environments, Towards and estimate of the environmental burden of disease. Prepared by Prüss-Üstün, A and Corvalán, C, WHO: Geneva.

• WHO (2010) WHO Fact File: 10 facts on preventing disease through healthy environments. Available from: http://www.who.int/features/factfiles/environmental_health/en/index.html

• WHO (2012) WHO Fact File: Climate change and health. Available from: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs266/en/

• WWF – Climate change explained: http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/

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