Mongolia Ministry of Finance, Mongoliastorage.embersoft.mn/d1af1f/article/2016/09/22... · Project Name: Mining Infrastructure Investment Support Project (MINIS) Credit# 4888-MN

Mongolia

Ministry of Finance, Mongolia

Ref: WB/MOF/MINIS/CS/QCBS/1.1.4 (c)/2015

Project Name: Mining Infrastructure Investment Support Project (MINIS)

Credit# 4888-MN

Terms of Reference for the Feasibility Study for “Shuren hydropower plant” project

Funded by: International Development Association

Date: September 2016

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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of ‘Shuren Hydropower Plant’ Project

CONTENTS

A. GENERAL INFORMATION ..................................................................................................... 5

A 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 5

A 1.1. Background .............................................................................................................. 5

A 1.2. The Government Policy of Mongolia ....................................................................... 6

A 1.3 Project Region .......................................................................................................... 7

A 1.4. Project initial screening ........................................................................................... 8

A 2. Overall Scope of the Study .............................................................................................. 9

A 2.1. The Purpose of Feasibility Study .............................................................................. 9

A 2.2. Integration with the ESIA ......................................................................................... 9

A 2.3. Advisory Committee ................................................................................................ 9

B. UPDATE OF PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS .................................................................. 11

B 1. Review of Previous Studies and Site Visits ................................................................... 11

B 2. Power Demand and Sector Review ............................................................................... 11

B 3. Updated Surveys and Investigations ............................................................................. 12

B 3.1. Engineering Topographic Survey ........................................................................... 12

B 3.2. Geological and Geotechnical Investigations .......................................................... 12

B 3.3. Seismic Studies ...................................................................................................... 14

B 3.4. Construction Material Studies ............................................................................... 14

B 3.5. Geotechnical Baseline Report ................................................................................ 15

B 4. Updated Hydrology and Climate Change Assessment .................................................. 15

B 4.1. Meteorological and Hydrological Studies .............................................................. 15

B 4.2. Water Consumptions ............................................................................................. 15

B 4.3. Climate Change Assessment .................................................................................. 16

B 5. Assessment of power evacuation alternatives and integration to CES .......................... 16

B.5.1 Integration to CES .................................................................................................. 16

B 5.2. Transmission and Grid Connection ........................................................................ 16

B 6. Reservoir Modeling and Power Simulations ................................................................. 16

B 6.1. Reservoir Operation ............................................................................................... 16

B 6.2. Flood Routing ......................................................................................................... 17

B 7. Conceptual Scheme Layout ........................................................................................... 17

B 7.1 Basic Data Defining the Project Design.................................................................. 17

B 7.2. Dam Design ............................................................................................................ 18

B7.3. Stability and Structural Analysis ............................................................................ 19

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B7.4. Dewatering and Water Diversion .......................................................................... 20

B 7.5. Design of Hydro-Mechanical and Electro-Mechanical Equipment ........................ 20

B 7.6. Infrastructure and Access Roads ........................................................................... 20

B 8. Site Selection ................................................................................................................. 21

B. 8.1 Costs and Benefits of Alternatives ......................................................................... 21

B 8.2. Multi-criteria Analysis for Site Selection ................................................................ 21

B 8.3. Site Selection Report and Workshop ..................................................................... 21

B 9. Feasibility Level Design ................................................................................................ 21

B. 9.1 Complementary Surveys and Investigations ......................................................... 21

B. 9.2 Design, Drawings and Bill of Quantities ................................................................. 22

B 10. Implementation Plans ................................................................................................ 22

B 10.1. Contract and Procurement Planning ..................................................................... 22

B 10.2. Implementation Schedule...................................................................................... 22

B 10.3. Project Operation Organization ............................................................................. 23

B 11. Dam Safety Measures ................................................................................................ 23

B 12. Legal Analyses ............................................................................................................ 23

B 12.1. Laws, Regulations and Electricity Tariff ................................................................. 23

B 12.2 Management and Financing Alternatives .............................................................. 24

B 13. Financial and Economic Analyses ............................................................................. 24

B13.1. Capital and Investment Costs ................................................................................ 24

B 13.2.Operating Expenses .................................................................................................... 24

B13.3. Direct and Indirect Benefits ................................................................................... 25

B 13.4 Financial and Economic Analyses .......................................................................... 25

B 14. Risk Register .............................................................................................................. 25

B 15. Final Recommendation .............................................................................................. 26

B 16. Feasibility Report and Workshop .............................................................................. 26

C. REPORTING REQUIREMENTS AND DELIVERABLES ................................................. 26

C1. Deliverables and Reporting ........................................................................................... 26

C1.1. Progress Reporting ................................................................................................ 26

C1.2. Main Reports ......................................................................................................... 27

C 2. Management of the Feasibility Study ............................................................................ 27

C 2.1 Roles and Responsibilities ..................................................................................... 27

C 2.2 Time Schedule ........................................................................................................ 28

C 2.3. Ownership and Control of Information, Data and Documents ............................. 28

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D. REQUIRMENT FOR THE CONSULTANT TEAM ............................................................... 30

D1. Consultants Required .......................................................................................................... 30

D 2.Key Professional Qualifications and Competence for the Assignment .............................. 30

F IDENTIFIED RELEVANT STUDIES .................................................................................. 36

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A. GENERAL INFORMATION

A 1. Introduction A 1.1. Background The Government of Mongolia (GoM) has received a Technical Assistance Credit from the International Development Association (the Bank) in an amount equivalent to US$25 million, toward the cost of Mining Infrastructure Investment Support Project (MINIS) and intends to apply a portion of the proceeds of this credit to eligible payments under this Contract.

The Mining Infrastructure Investment Support Project (MINIS) financed by the World Bank aims to facilitate investments in infrastructure to support mining related activities and downstream value-added processes (regardless of funding source) and to build local capacity to prepare and transact infrastructure Projects. In the scope of “Shuren hydropower plant” (“Project”), a Feasibility Study will be carried out.

Due to its growing population, Mongolia’s primary energy consumption has steadily increased over the last years while consumption intensity remained the same. Mongolia is in danger of a serious energy shortfall as early as 2012, at which point the maximum imported capacity of 255 MW from Russia may not meet demand. Russian power has become more expensive. This shortfall will grow with rapid expansion of the country`s mining sector.

To address energy shortfall, the Government cabinet meeting (November 2011) discussed the Shuren hydropower plant (HPP) along with several other energy projects and recognized the Shuren HPP as a priority project.

The MINIS is funding a feasibility study to look at constructing a Shuren hydropower plant on the Selenge River. Within the framework of the MINIS Project, it is planned to hire a consulting teams to develop the Feasibility Study and Environmental and Social Impact Assessment of Shuren Hydropower Plant.

The basic goal of the ‘Shuren Hydropower Plant’ Project is to supply the electricity demanded by the mining sector and to fill electricity shortfall faced by the country. Secondary goals are to provide renewable energy, enable energy independence from the Russian power system and a low-cost supply of renewable energy.

The proposed Project could be both technically and economically feasible, however it cannot be considered further without taking into account direct environmental and social impacts. The Project has been classified as Category “A” according to the World Bank Environmental Assessment Operational Policy 4.01, and therefore the proposed project must be reviewed by conducting a Detailed Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (EISA) with public consultation. The work to be done under this TOR is the technical and economic components of the Feasibility Study stage, while the ESIA will be contracted separately. The Feasibility Study work must however be closely coordinated with the ESIA activities and deliverables

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The Shuren project has been studied at pre-feasibility level, which is reported in the “Technical Study Report for the Shuren Hydropower Plant Project”. This study comprises the basis for the development of the Feasibility Study TORs.

A 1.2. The Government Policy of Mongolia Constructing a medium capacity hydropower plant with a dam on western area rivers has been implemented successfully in recent years. A hydropower plant with Roller Compacted Concrete (RCC) dam (Taishir hydro power plant) was built over the Zavkhan River and a Concrete Faced Rockfill (CFRD) dam (Durgun hydro power plant) was constructed on the Chono Kharaikh River. These hydropower plants created a stable energy supply and sustainable livelihood in western area of the country. In the northern part, large scale hydropower plants would supply electricity demanded by the mining sector and fill electricity shortfall faced by the country, and bring multipurpose benefits to the Selenge River region. The State Great Khural (Parliament) and the Government of Mongolia are highly attentive of these concepts and have mentioned them in the laws and policies listed below: 1. Mongolia’s Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Energy Sector 2002-2010

has been approved by the cabinet in July 2002 and revised in 2004. The aims of the Strategy include: sustainable development of the energy sector, reduced poverty and increased involvement of the private sector, and public interest in the sector through a more secure energy supply.

2. Mongolia’s energy sector has overcome a transition from a centralised, command based system to a market-oriented one. Currently, within the Central Energy System (CES), electricity is traded through the main market – the “single buyer model”(SBM) – and two other accompanying markets: spot and competitive.

3. In June 2005, the Mongolian Parliament approved the National Renewable Energy Program which sets ambitious goals for broad-based renewable energy development increasing the share of renewable energy in total energy supply from 0.9% in 2005 to 3-5% by 2010 and to 20-25% by 2020.

4. Item 3.8. National Renewable Energy Program; Take measures to perform technical economic feasibility studies of large hydropower stations namely Eg river 220 megawatts station, Artsat 118 megawatts station on Selenge River and Orkhon river 110 megawatts station on rivers with significant hydropower resources such as Selenge, Eg and Orkhon rivers, and to implement these studies.

5. The Renewable Energy Law of Mongolia came into force on 11 January 2007 and regulates the generation and supply of energy from renewable energy sources. The Government is seeking active engagements of donors and local and foreign private investors for the development of Mongolia’s large renewable potential for utilizing solar, wind, hydro and geothermal energy resources.

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6. Item 9.2.3, Renewable energy law of Mongolia; Studies on soil, flora, geological and hydro-geological conditions, geographical location, land surface, air pressure, weather, wind regime, and water study for cases of constructing facilities which will use hydro sources.

7. Item 9.2.4, Renewable energy law of Mongolia; A statement issued by an authority with regard to compliance of equipment, technology and facilities of a renewable energy power source with national and international standards.

8. Item 3.5.1.7 of Mongolian National Security Concept approved by Resolution No.48 by the Parliament of Mongolia, dated 15 July, 2010 - “Regulate flow of large rivers and construct a reservoir in order to improve usage of surface water in Mongolia”

9. Item 1.7. Some of action plan of Renewable energy source studies No. 16 Parliament of Mongolia dated 08 June 2010 – “ Intensify for Large scale hydro, solar and wind power plant source studies, promote for NGO and private sector and cooperate”

10. Item 8.17.Base line of develop for Economic and society of Mongolia in 2013.No. 37 Parliament of Mongolia dated 18 May 2012 -Initiate large scale hydropower plant construction work (300-350MW) on Selenge River basin.

11. Item 63-3. Implementation plan of action program of Government of Mongolia No. 120 Parliament of Mongolia dated 03 November 2012 - Startup Pre-feasibility study of large scale hydropower plant on Selenge River basin.

12. Item 3.3.2.Water National Program approved by Resolution No. 24 by the Parliament of Mongolia dated 20 May 2010 - “Regulate flow of Archon, Selenge, Tuul and Khovd rivers, some of rivers and construct a reservoir, transmit water in order to Improve usage of surface water in Mongolia”

13. Item 3.3.19. Water National Program approved by Resolution No. 24 by the Parliament of Mongolia dated 20 May 2010 – Improve again Mongolian rivers hydro energy potential, Renewable energy development plan, Energy consumption and demand, sector policy and planning connect with operational experience and maintenance difficulties of Taishir and Durgun HPP.

14. Item 3.3.32. Water National Program approved by Resolution No. 24 by the Parliament of Mongolia dated 20 May 2010 – Carry out Feasibility study of HPP on Selenge River with 300MW, Egiin HPP with 220MW and Orkhon HPP with 100MW, studied and resolved to startup the construction work.

A 1.3 Project Region Selenge River is the biggest river of Mongolia. It belongs to the Arctic Ocean Basin and it flows from Mongolia across the border to the Russian Federation supplying 50 percent of the flows to the Baikal Lake. The planned HPP site is located at 3 km from the tributary of Shuren River joining the Selenge River, which is at Orgikh bag, Tsagaan nuur soum, Selenge province. The reservoir area would cover the territory of Selenge and Khangal soum of Bulgan province

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as well as Baruun buren, Khushaat, Tsagaan nuur soums of Selenge province. Thus, it is required to conduct studies of the detailed environmental, ecological and socio-economic impact of the project. Both positive and negative aspects to the project area should be studied in the feasibility stage. To meet the growing energy consumption of central region, ensuring reliable and sustainable energy for the mining industry in the Gobi area, it is required to have a new energy resource that can enable a stable energy system in Central Energy System, and which is capable to deliver power for peak load and reserve energy. This energy source can be supplied by HPP on the Selenge River, which could provide maximum daily load and allow the system to control the frequency.

A 1.4. Project initial screening In the Phase 2 of the MINIS project a pre-feasibility study was conducted including an option assessment and initial screening of the environment, social, finance and economics of a hydropower plant on the Selenge River. Its results were discussed and agreed with the Working Group of the Ministry of Energy. The pre-feasibility study is available for interested bidders and can be obtained by the MINIS Project Management Unit.

The result of the pre-feasibility study for the HPP Shuren is that the investigated area at the Selenge River between Khyalganat and Zuunburen is suited for the proposed construction of a HPP. Within this area, six possible dam sites have been identified. They have been selected by new investigations and based on the Russian feasibility study from 1973.

Site no. 1 49°48'24.45"N, 105°09'51.70"E Site no. 2 49°44'43.07"N, 105°02'58.63"E Site no. 3 49°43'59.27"N, 104°57'15.60"E Site no. 4 49°42'29.70"N, 104°56'25.72"E Site no. 5 49°41'06.73"N, 104°47'54.18"E Site no. 6 49°40'31.20"N, 104°45'52.26"E Two locations, Sites no. 4 and 6, were identified as best suited for the construction of a HPP and have to be further investigated in the feasibility study. The selection of the final location has to be done by a comparison of sites taking into account the power generation need for the Central Energy System (CES), technical and economic feasibility, and environmental and social impacts. The initial screening of potential sites for the Shuren HPP was followed by preliminary investigations for the Site No. 4 in the pre-feasibility study, which indicated that Shuren HPP is an important and feasible project for the future generation of power for the CES. The feasibility study shall, review all previously studied sites, confirm the preliminary investigations of Site no. 4 and conduct similar investigations of Site no.6 to make an informed choice of the best alternative. The best alternative will then be further developed and analyzed to a feasibility level design.

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A 2. Overall Scope of the Study

A 2.1. The Purpose of Feasibility Study

The purpose of Feasibility Study is to analyze the possibility of implementing proposed Shuren HPP project in terms of technical, financial and economic factors. The Feasibility Study shall satisfy the following requirements:

• Perform an analysis of all relevant technical, economic, financial issues to high professional standards;

• Prepare engineering designs at the Feasibility Study Level and develop a Draft Implementation Plan;

• Calculate required capital investment for each project stages and identify the basis of the Project in compliance with the Technical, Economic, Environmental and Social Impact Assessment;

• Suggest an appropriate solution on capital investment and identify project implementation phases;

The Feasibility Study must be carried out in compliance with Mongolian laws, construction norms and regulations of Construction Normative and Rule (CNaR), and international standards, and consider that the outcome of the Feasibility Study process will be subject to an Environmental and Social Impact Assessment, in compliance with the World Bank’s Operations Safeguard Policy and that detail and quality of the Feasibility Study will be sufficiently high to support approvals and financing decisions at an international level. The Feasibility Study report must be developed and submitted for the review in accordance with the World Bank and Mongolian government rules and procedures and the consulting service can only be considered to be completed after receipt of the customer's approval on such report.

A 2.2. Integration with the ESIA

The feasibility study and the detailed ESIA of the Shuren HPP will be conducted by different consultants to full World Bank requirements and relevant Mongolian and international standard, rules and procedures, but these two studies must be highly interrelated. The Feasibility Study consultant shall regularly coordinate its activities with the ESIA consultant and actively inform itself of the results of the ESIA. Results of the technical feasibility study and the parallel ESIA shall be integrated to make the final choice of the best site and size for the Shuren HPP. The preliminary design of the chosen site shall take into account environmental and social impacts, and the cost estimate and proposed implementation plan shall take into account the Environmental Management Plans, Resettlement Action Plan and Livelihood Improvement Programs.

A 2.3. Advisory Committee

The Consultant’s work and output will be reviewed by an Advisory Committee assigned by the Client. The committee will include international renowned hydropower experts in the technical, environmental and social fields, and will review the results of both the feasibility study and the ESIA. The committee will review main outputs, such as the draft

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inception report, site selection report and feasibility report. The Consultant shall respond to the committee’scomments and recommendation, incorporate these in the final reports, or clearly motivate if not following the recommendations.

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B. UPDATE OF PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS

B 1. Review of Previous Studies and Site Visits The proposed Shuren project location at the Selenge River was investigated in the pre-feasibility study. As a result two possible dam sites were selected for further investigation in the feasibility study: Site no. 4 49°42'29.70"N, 104°56'25.72"E Dam height; 65 meter Site no. 6 49°40'31.20"N, 104°45'52.26"E Dam height: 43 meter For the construction design given in the pre-feasibility study, site no. 4 was selected as the site for further investigations in the pre-a stage since it provides more head than site no. 6 and the available documents of the Russian feasibility study from 1973 refer to that site. This preliminary determination of one site enabled a more detailed construction assessment, providing the motivation for further studies of the Shuren Hydropower Project. Nevertheless, all previously studied sites must be reviewed, and both sites no. 6 and no. 4 have to be studied further in the feasibility study stage. The final selection of the dam site and dam design shall go hand-in-hand and must include the investigations of both sites, a study of various dam types, reservoir capacities, mode of operation with respect to base load and peaking, reservoir and flow management and required environmental and social impact mitigation. It is necessary to collect, summarize and evaluate available reports, studies, calculations and further inventory data related to the construction of the Shuren project. In particular a repeated search for the Russian feasibility study from 1973 has to be done. Cooperation and consultation with Mongolian and Russian authorities, organizations and companies is essential. The Consultant shall therefore as a first task compile all relevant previous studies and information for the alternative sites identified for the proposed Shuren Hydropower Project. Key documents are the feasibility studies from 1973, the pre-feasibility study conducted under MINIS and the new Energy Master Plan. All documents shall be carefully reviewed to inform the Feasibility Study. The Consultant shall conduct an initial site visit to the Selenge River, and shall meet the Client and key stakeholders, such as the Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Environment and the Working Group for the Shuren Hydropower Project development. As a result of the review of all previous documents and available information, the Consultant shall prepare an Inception Report, highlighting any changes to the methodology that was made in the Technical Proposal, and update the activities and work schedule if needed.

B 2. Power Demand and Sector Review

The Consultant shall, based on the information collected in Phase 1 and 2 and the new Energy Master Plan, and any other available information, review and update the electricity demand forecast for Mongolia, and especially the future demands and load factors for the Central Energy System (CES)

The Consultant shall conduct a thorough review of the Mongolian energy sector and policies, and establish likely expansion alternatives for the future CES in regard to

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generation, inter-connections and transmission. The consultant shall especially establish an understanding of the future role for hydropower as a generation source for the CES. In additions the Consultant shall review and evaluate any need for ancillary functions of hydropower, such as frequency control and spinning reserve for the CES.

B 3. Updated Surveys and Investigations

B 3.1. Engineering Topographic Survey The Consultant shall collect, summarize and evaluate available reports, previous surveys, aerial mappings and further inventory data related to the topography of the Shuren project. Cooperation and consultation with Mongolian authorities, organizations and licensed companies is required. Detailed survey of site no. 4 is available and presented in the pre-feasibility study, if found necessary the Consultant shall expand mapping area scaled by 1:5000 and 1:1000. The Consultant shall conduct site survey of site no. 6 to a relevant level to enable conceptual design for comparison of the two sites. Any geodesy mapping of the dam sites and the reservoir shall include the marking of villages, landmarks, fields and meadows, transmission lines etc. The Consultant shall survey all possible existing movable or immovable objects, sites, structures, groups and natural features and landscapes that have archaeological, paleontological, historical, architectural, religious, aesthetic, or other cultural significance in site 4 and 6. Geodesy mapping shall be performed with suitable scale and accuracy, using GIS and AutoCAD software. Aerial and satellite mapping shall be used in combination with topographic survey. In addition to the site surveys, the Consultant shall develop topographic maps in the scale of 1:100000 for the whole impact area (including grid connection to Erdenet) with elevation accuracy not less than 10 meters. For the reservoir areas the Consultant shall develop topographic maps in the scale of 1:50000 with accuracy not less than 10 meters.

B 3.2. Geological and Geotechnical Investigations The Consultant shall collect, summarize and evaluate available information from previously conducted geological, hydro-geological, seismological studies and inventory data related to the Shuren project. List all the information by name, type, age, scope of work, duration for execution, methodology and results. Cooperation and consultation with Mongolian authorities, organizations and companies is required. The Consultant shall conduct geological and geotechnical investigations to a level that will allow conceptual design for comparison of the two sites (no.4 and no.6) The Consultant shall investigate the geological condition and phenomenon of the whole project area, including dam sites, reservoirs and grid connections. Make geological assessment of existing data, maps and aerial maps categorized by zones. Prepare geological maps and geological cross sections and seismic-tectonic drawings categorized by zones. This part of geological works for feasibility study shall include activities to;

• Identify boundaries and intensity of geological processes. • Visit the project area and establish a survey and investigation program. • Develop parameters to describe the geological condition of the area and develop a

methodology for the geological, hydro-geological and geophysical studies.

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• Identify soil and rock types, fractures and boundary of rock-soil cracks, locations and replenishment accumulation zones. Identify depth and thickness of soil, river alluvium and rock.

• Identify depth and thickness of permafrost soil. • Identify the permeability of river alluvium, rock and soil. • Identify frost resistance of rock. • Identify the level of ground water, flow direction and chemical composition of

each layer of ground water.

Hydro-geological survey and investigation shall cover the proposed dam sites and reservoirs area. Under this study, the consultant shall establish hydro-geological monitoring boreholes to identify underground water regime. Give recommendations on soil water regime changes, methods of observation for the regime and methods for measurements during operation period. Within the geophysical survey, which should cover the proposed dam site area, the Consultant shall identify depth of rock, soil and permafrost boundaries, thickness and fracture, crack boundaries, and establish the level of soil water and deep water in the river valley and flow direction. Also, Consultant shall conduct a geophysical study for seismology and earthquake zoning. The Consultant shall select method and methodology suitable for the geophysical study and conduct a drilling survey to verify results. The Consultant shall identify engineering geological conditions at the selected dam site areas, areas for power house and dam facilities (water collecting reservoir, dam, hydro power station, water outlet structure, and spillway and fish passage). Develop geological mapping and reports for the dam site and areas for power house and other facilities. Survey and investigate geology, geophysics and engineering geology connected to the topographic mapping. Conduct geotechnical investigation following the selected line and profile. Geotechnical investigations shall include soil and rock soil drilling, kern sampling, digging channel, cast in place test and gallery at the embankment area, site test, laboratory tests and their reports and determine soil and rock strata. Engineering geological assessment shall be conducted for the following components:

• Water accumulating reservoir (water proofing of the reservoir, any water loss and slope stabilization)

• Embankment • Other hydro-technical buildings and facilities. • Sub stations • Construction material quarry and borrow pit site • Infrastructure at the dam embankment

Conduct a drilling survey program to verify the geological, hydro-geological and geophysical studies. This program includes the drillings, diggings, kern sampling, site and laboratory tests. The Consultant shall:

• Drill at least 10 boreholes at each dam site (no. 4 & no. 6) along the planned weir axis also drill at least 2 boreholes in the river. Depth of the boreholes needs to penetrate the base rock below the river alluvium and to penetrate up to minimum

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10 meters in the base rock. Determine base rock cracks, their length, width, location and direction.

• Drill 0-2 boreholes within 1 km² in the reservoir area. Depth of boreholes needs to penetrate the base rock. Select the location of the boreholes depending on the geological conditions. Identify soil characteristics in regard of slope stabilities in the reservoir area to evaluate the risk of landslides.

• Drill one borehole at the proposed location of the substation. Depth of borehole needs to penetrate the base rock.

• Drill boreholes of 5-6 m depth at each 3 km along the proposed transmission line and access road.

• Sample not less than 30 % of the drillings and diggings and test them at a laboratory to determine soil and rock characteristics. Store the sorted kerns and samples in a safe location. Based on the findings, develop geological maps, cross sections, seismic-tectonic drawings and reports, connected to the topographic survey and categorized by zones. Assess the suitability of the rock and soil for foundations or use of construction material.

B 3.3. Seismic Studies

The Consultant shall summarize quality and quantity data used in the previously conducted seismic study analyzing by name and type of works, coverage, executed timeframe, methodology and result and provide a conclusion. The Consultant shall conduct a detailed seismic study at the sites of the proposed dams at the Selenge River and site surveys and investigations for determining cracks in the base rock, length of cracks, vertical and longitudinal transferring and types of damage. Based on the geological, and geophysical studies and laboratory tests, identify physic and mechanic characteristics of the rock. Assess seismic impacts, risks and describe seismicity for the project area. The Consultant shall determine seismic impact zones, seismic sources, and the estimated maximum earthquake, the design maximum earthquake during project operation, the earthquake speed, ground acceleration, and earthquake grades as basis for design parameters. The Consultant shall develop seismicity zones maps for the project area. In addition the Consultant shall review the current seismic network in the region, project area and make suggestions for improving monitoring seismic activity in the project region and area.

B 3.4. Construction Material Studies The Consultant shall identify location, quantity and characteristics of sand, gravel, stones, boulders and rock suitable for use as construction material and for concrete production. Identification shall be done my sampling and field and laboratory tests. Pay special attention to test the mineral aggregates for danger of alkali-silica-reaction (ASR). In addition, the Consultant shall identify resources of cement, steel, wood both of local or distant material procurement sources, and assess available quantity and quality of water to be used for construction. Investigations must follow norms, standards and regulation requirements of the Mineral Resources Authority in Mongolia based on regulation to protect nature and environment and usage of natural resources. The Consultant shall provide investigation results and maps of the resource locations, sampling locations and transport routes.

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B 3.5. Geotechnical Baseline Report The Consultant shall summarize all findings of the geological and geotechnical investigations into a Geotechnical Baseline Report following international standards.

B 4. Updated Hydrology and Climate Change Assessment Within the framework of the Feasibility Study a complete hydrological investigation shall be conducted to expand observation data along Selenge River and collect data until Baikal Lake. The Consultant shall collect, summarize and evaluate available studies and inventory data related to the hydrology of the Selenge River. Cooperation and consultation with Mongolian authorities is required.

B 4.1. Meteorological and Hydrological Studies

The Consultant shall review previous hydrological assessment of the Selenge River and compile and evaluate the existing discharge data of the Selenge River from the gauging stations Ikh-Uul, Khutag-Undur, Khyalganat, Zuunburen and Sukhbataar, as well as meteorological data for the project area and Selenge River basin and Baikal Lake. The Consultant shall conduct an exhaustive quality check of the available river runoff data (homogeneity of discharge values, size of catchment areas, station ratings, etc.) from these gauging stations and search for additional data from these five and other gauging stations. The Consultant shall also search for additional gauging stations at the Selenge River in Russian part and vicinity of the project.

Based on the available data, a hydrological assessment shall be conducted including the following components:

• Confirm the size of the catchment area of the sites no. 4 and no. 6.

• Estimate long-term inflow characteristics of the proposed dam sites

• Perform a study for the sediment transportation in the Selenge River.

• Analyze the interrelation between groundwater and surface water at dam sites

• Investigate dam evaporation.

• Identify ice cover and temperature curves of the Selenge River. Identify the design flood discharges for the dam sites.

• If found needed, establish a temporary remote control gauging station near the dam site for measuring discharges and sediments

B 4.2. Water Consumptions The Consultant shall identify existing water consumption from towns (like the pumping station for Erdenet city), rural settlements, mining, industry, agriculture (like the Tiirgiin Hundii and Bongiin Tokhoi irrigation systems) and the environment. The Consultant shall evaluate the volumes of the current water consumptions and estimate future development of the water consumptions, and establish inflow series to the two dam sites that will be representative for the future economic life span of the proposed HPP. The Consultant shall liaise with the ESIA consultants to estimate the necessary ecological flow in the river bed to be released under filling of the dam and operation of the project.

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The ecological flows shall take into account the need of dynamic water flows for downstream water consumptions and environmental needs.

B 4.3. Climate Change Assessment The Consultant shall, based on global and regional studies, and climate change projections, estimate the likely range of climate futures for the period of the economic life span of the Shuren HPP. These climate change scenarios shall be expressed as percentage of change in future temperature, precipitation and runoff compared to historical records. The Consultant shall take this information into account in the conceptual design of the two site alternatives for Shuren HPP and use them as input to sensitivity analysis for cost (due to possible necessary adaptive design) and benefits (due to possible changed inflow) of the project.

B 5. Assessment of power evacuation alternatives and integration to CES

B.5.1 Integration to CES The Consultant shall, based on the conducted detailed assessment of the future power demand and likely expansion of the CES, and in coordination with the reservoir operation modeling and conceptual design of the two alternative sites, determine how the Shuren HPP is best integrated as a generation source to the future CES. A key characteristic to be determined is the appropriate plant factors for of the two alternative sites. The Consultant shall also determine the best configurations of the generation units, taking into account any need for ancillary services, such as spinning reserve. If necessary, the Consultant shall conduct simplified power system modeling of the CES to determine the best future role for the two alternative Shuren HPP plants that can be constructed at the two identified sites (No. 4 and 6).

B 5.2. Transmission and Grid Connection The Consultant shall identify the most feasible alignment of the transmission line from the HPP Shuren to Erdenet to connect to the Central Energy System (CES). This will include conducting a calculation the energy losses in the transmission line and selecting an appropriate design of the grid connection based on this calculation, and in accordance to the Mongolian regulations and standards. The Consultant shall identify the necessary properties of the substation to transform the voltage coming from the generators in the power house to the high voltage required for the transmission line. In addition to the conceptual design the Consultant shall conduct preliminary expense budget and implementation schedule for the transmission lines and sub-stations.

B 6. Reservoir Modeling and Power Simulations

B 6.1. Reservoir Operation The Consultant shall conduct reservoir modeling to estimate the potential power production of the two alternative sites No. 4 and 6. The modeling shall be done to find the optimized scheme layout and operation in coordination with the conceptual design of the dam and power plants, and the assessment of integration of the Shuren plant into the CES.

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The Consultant shall determine the total gross storage and surface water area for the dam alternatives based on the topographical surveys. The available live storage shall be determined based on the estimated sediment transport in Selenge River and potential mitigations measures for reservoir siltation. The Consultant shall establish storage volume curves versus reservoir elevation and how they evolve over time due to project siltation. The Consultant shall, based on the hydro-geological assessment and investigations, estimate potential water losses through seepage. The Consultant shall model reservoir operations and power production for different dam and power plant configurations, using the hydrological data (inflow, dam evaporation, and ecological flow releases) as input. It is anticipated that a series of at least 30 years will be used to capture the variability in inflow to estimate accurate firm power production. The reservoir modeling shall also determine the resulting reservoir and tailrace water levels. The reservoir model shall be used, together with dam safety aspects, to analyze different scenarios of filling of the dam alternatives. The results shall describe the anticipated duration of the filling and the estimated effect on downstream flows.

B 6.2. Flood Routing The Consultant shall conduct flood routing of the appropriate design flood discharges through the reservoir, and establish the required discharge capacity of the flood spillway and operating rules for the reservoir. The flood routing shall be used to identify back water effects of reservoir and tailrace water levels during extreme floods. The Consultant shall provide model, methodology, criteria and calibration used in the flood routing, and present the reservoir operation and simulation studies in a report along with the model, methodology, criteria, data and results used.

B 7. Conceptual Scheme Layout

B 7.1 Basic Data Defining the Project Design The Consultants shall define the project design for both alternative sites no. 4 and no. 6 based on existing basic data conditions. The Consultant shall identify the river bed conditions (elevation, material) along the proposed dam axis and also bank conditions (elevation, vegetation, rock / soil conditions) on both sides of the river along the proposed dam axis. The Consultant shall identify the elevation of the base rock below the river alluvium and the soil on both river banks, soil and rock characteristics based on field and laboratory tests. Establish characteristic design values to be used later on in the stability analysis of the construction. The Consultant shall identify the permafrost level and permafrost depth at the dam sites. Develop a cross section of the river valley along the proposed dam axis for both alternative locations. The cross sections shall show all the available information of the ground. Flag these cross sections in the topographic maps. The Consultant shall identify existing features upstream of the dam site that could limit the reservoir size or require special measures to be protected or removed and replaced with regard of the reservoir. Those features could be, but not limited to: settlements, buildings, agriculture or industry facilities, historical landmarks, protected areas, etc. One such important feature to assess is the existing water supply scheme for Erdenet, which

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may be affected by the proposed dam alternatives. The consultant shall flag these sites in the topographic maps together with information about the kind of feature, elevation, size, importance, and make sure that any mitigation measure to protect, remove or replace these features is included in the total cost estimate of the project. The Consultant shall identify the seismic activity in the project area. Based on the given data, establish characteristic design values like peak ground acceleration to be used in the stability and structural analysis later on. The Consultant shall consult Mongolian authorities to confirm these characteristic design values to be used for stability and structural analysis and to be in compliance with the national and international standards. The Consultant shall identify the main hydrology design parameters for the Selenge River at the proposed dam sites. For the stability analysis of the dams, different design flood events have to be established. The Consultant shall liaise with Mongolian authorities to confirm these design flood events to be used for stability analysis of the dam and to be in compliance with the national and international standards. The Consultant shall identify the climate conditions at the project location (temperature, humidity). The Consultant shall identify the icing of the river water, when the icing starts, maximum and average ice thickness and when the melting of the ice on the river starts. Pay special attention to the local condition, that in the spring season when the highest river discharges appear, the river is mostly still covered with ice or has floating ice sheets, so flood events occur in connection with drifting ice.

B 7.2. Dam Design Based on the defined basic data for both alternative sites no. 4 and no. 6, the Consultant shall develop the project designs:

• Identify the maximum, minimum and the normal reservoir water level for the dam site.

• Identify the required foundation level of the dam, based on a rough stability analysis and with attention to seepage.

• Identify the top level of the dam, based on the established water levels, the required spillway freeboard and with attention to the international standards and regulations.

• Identify the resulting height of the dam. • Identify the width of the dam, based on the cross section of the river valley at the

proposed dam site. • Identify the resulting size (length and width) and volume of the reservoir for both

sites.

The Consultant shall provide a longitudinal section and a cross section for both alternative dam sites no. 4 and no. 6, showing the selected height of the dam and the selected water levels. The Consultant shall investigate the possibility to build a A Roller Compacted Concrete dam (RCC dam), or B Concrete Faced Rock fill dam (CFRD) or any other dam type the Consultant may suggest. At the proposed sites; conduct a detailed study of alternatives for both construction types, providing the advantages and disadvantages of both construction types. This study shall contain, but not limited to:

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construction time, excavation volume, dam stability, overtopping, geometry, apertures and passages and provide draft drawings for both dam types. The Consultant shall identify the required dimensions of the flood spillway, based on the established design flood events. Identify the arrangement of the flood spillway in or beside the dam (crest spillway or flood bypass). Pay special attention to the situation that the spillway must be able to safely release the flood discharge at all times, especially at the end of the wintertime when freezing, flood water and drifting ice occur simultaneously. A spillway without moveable parts is generally preferred. The Consultant shall identify the required dimensions of the plunge pool to prevent the flood water release from eroding the downstream riverbed. The Consultant shall identify the required number and location of the bottom outlets. It is preferred to have at least two bottom outlets, providing the possibility of a backup in case of malfunction or blocking of one bottom outlet. Assess the design of the required armored protection of the bottom outlets against abrasion to guarantee the durability of these structures. The Consultant shall, based on the defined active storage volume and the river hydrology, define the maximum discharge capacity of the hydro power plant. Based on this selection, the Consultant shall define the number and sizes of turbines. Based on the selected number of turbines and the resulting maximum discharge per turbine, select the required dimension of the penstocks and assess the resulting hydraulic losses. Establish an economic optimization for the selection of the most feasible penstock diameter versus the hydraulic losses. The Consultant shall identify the type of penstock pipes (GRP, steel, etc.). Assess the availability, the costs, the transport facilities and the durability of the possible types of penstock. Select a final type of penstock and identify the final alignment of the penstock with regard to the minimum water level and the maximum dead storage level. The Consultant shall determine following dimensions in power house;

• Identify the dimensions of the required intake protection of the penstock. Take the required protection for aquatic species in the reservoir into account.

• Identify the location and dimension of the power house, required for the housing of the complete turbine equipment.

• Identify the required tailrace dimensions (length, width and depth) to safely release the turbine discharge.

• Identify the construction material for the power house.

The Consultant shall establish a rough stability and structural analysis in order to define the dimensions of bearing structures, walls, floors and ceilings. Include seismic loads into the static calculations.

B7.3. Stability and Structural Analysis The stability and structural analysis is intended to determine the integrity of the dam and connected structures under defined loadings. The Consultant has to agree with the client and the Mongolian authorities, which national and / or international codes and regulations apply for the proposed Shuren HPP and which loadings and combination of loadings have to consider. The Consultant must present a written definition of the agreed codes and regulations, approved by the concerned Mongolian Authorities. For the type and location of dam selected, the corresponding structural and stability analysis shall be performed by the Consultant.

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B7.4. Dewatering and Water Diversion The Consultant shall plan the water diversion of the Selenge River during the construction time in order to enable a secure construction progress a simultaneously securing the continuing river discharge of the Selenge River. The Consultant shall set up design discharge values for the Selenge River, the water diversion has to withstand without putting the construction sites in danger. Prepare hydraulic calculations based on the available hydrology. The Consultant shall estimate the volume of the necessary dewatering of the construction sites, based on calculated seepage values for the ground. Consider sheet piling and similar measures to minimize seepage. Estimate the required numbers and size of pumps and the resulting consumption of electricity. The Consultant shall establish measures to prevent polluted water being pumped out of the construction site into the Selenge River. Present evacuation procedures and alarm levels for the construction site regarding possible flood events.

B 7.5. Design of Hydro-Mechanical and Electro-Mechanical Equipment The Consultant shall define the type, number and capacity of turbines to be installed in the HPP. Selection based on costs, efficiency, reliability, availability and transport facilities of the turbines. The arrangement of the turbines must consider sufficient water coverage at the tailrace, prevent cavitations, offer sufficient protection against icing and provide sufficient access space for maintenance purposes. The Consultant shall define the required generators, based on the selected number and capacity of the turbines. Consider the required capability for connection to the national grid system and the requested capability of the generators to function as a spinning reserve. The Consultant shall define the connection between turbines and generators. The selection of the generators shall be priory based on choosing the same provider of turbine and generator equipment. The Consultant shall identify the required stop and regulating valves, belonging to the penstock and the turbine equipment. Identify the required closing times of the main valve in the penstock in order to protect the electro-mechanical equipment, and calculate the resulting water hammer in the penstock. The Consultant shall identify the required stop logs and gates at the penstock intakes, the bottom outlets and the tailrace channels. Conduct a rough structural analysis to identify the required dimensions and numbers. The Consultant shall identify the required number and type of cranes to lift the stop logs.

B 7.6. Infrastructure and Access Roads The Consultant shall identify the required access to permanent installations at the dam site like the top of the dam, the power house, the stilling basins, the tailrace channel, workshops, housing facilities, substation, grid connection, fish bypass, etc. The Consultant shall plan the necessary access roads and infrastructure in accordance with the Mongolian construction norms and regulations, standards and appropriate environment regulations. The Consultant shall identify the required access to temporary installations during the construction time like construction camps, contractor´s plants, supply areas, etc.

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The Consultant shall develop requirements for the access roads, based on the size and the weight of the transported materials and equipment. Develop a plan for transport of oversize and overweight equipment to the project site. Identify the most feasible route from Erdenet to the project site or from Darkhan-Zuunburen to the project site for temporary and permanent access, paying attention to existing and required bridges, culverts and flood protection and possible alignment of the transmission line along the access road.

B 8. Site Selection

B. 8.1 Costs and Benefits of Alternatives The Consultant shall summarize all costs and benefits of the two alternative sites and alternative dam configurations. The investment and operational costs of the alternatives shall be quantified based on the conceptual scheme layouts. Benefits and the form of power production and ancillary services shall be estimated. Externalities, such as environmental and social impacts, including cumulative impacts, shall be summarized. The Consultant shall coordinate and receive such information on environmental and social externalities from the parallel ESIA study. The Consultant shall put the different alternatives into the perspective of planned construction of other hydropower projects (such as the Eg HPP) and the development of the CES in general. The pro and cons of how the suggested alternatives would fit into a phased future development of new generation sources to secure affordable power security for central Mongolia should be considered and included in the basis for the final selection.

B 8.2. Multi-criteria Analysis for Site Selection The Consultant shall use the summarized costs, benefits and externalities as input to a multi-criteria analysis to evaluate the different sites (no. 4 and 6) and dam configurations. The multi-criteria analysis shall be a transparent tool that describes which factors have been included and which weights they have been given. Based on the multi-criteria analysis the Consultant shall select and motivate the best option for development of the Shuren HPP.

B 8.3. Site Selection Report and Workshop All analyses and results that led to the site selection, and the multi-criteria analysis and final choice of best option for Shuren HPP shall be described in a Site Selection Report. This report shall be structured with a main report, which summarizes the salient findings and results, and a number of annexes that describes the results in detail. The Site Selection Report shall be submitted for review of the Client, Panel of Experts and the World Bank team. After giving time for review the results shall be presented by the Consultant in a workshop in Ulan Bataar, to allow discussion and clarification of the method and results, and feedback to the Consultant. This workshop shall be coordinated to be held jointly with the presentation of results for the parallel ESIA.

B 9. Feasibility Level Design

B. 9.1 Complementary Surveys and Investigations The Consultant shall plan and execute any necessary additional assessments, surveys and investigations required to develop the selected Shuren HPP site to a feasibility design level, including drawings and draft bill of quantities.

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If not conducted previously, the Consultant shall make additional surveys for the chosen site to develop topographic maps in the scale of 1:25000 for the grid connection, access roads and reservoir with elevation accuracy not less than 5 meters, and develop topographic maps in the scale of 1:5000 and 1:1000 for selective building structures (dam, power house, substation, etc.) with elevation accuracy not less than 1 meter. The Consultant shall update and finalize the Geotechnical Baseline Report. Additional surveys, investigations and laboratory tests for doing so should be conducted. The seismic assessment shall be updated if needed. The hydrology, reservoir modeling and power simulations shall be updated if needed. The design floods shall be confirmed and design of river diversion works and spillway updated if needed.

B. 9.2 Design, Drawings and Bill of Quantities The Consultant shall for the feasibility design work in close collaboration with the ESIA consultant to optimize the engineering design to minimize as much as possible adverse environmental and social impacts. The feasibility design shall adhere to the most modern international best practices. The Consultant shall confirm and finalize the conceptual scheme layout for the selected sites, conduct design at feasibility level and prepare drawings and technical specifications. The design and the drawings shall cover all construction parts (access roads, quarries and camps, diversion works, dam, powerhouse) and the complete electro-mechanical and hydro-mechanical equipment (turbines, generators, transformers, substation, and grid connection). Besides the main components preliminary designed in the site selection stage and confirmed in this feasibility stage, the Consultant shall develop and design the communication, data and telemetry control for the selected HPP. The communication system shall include all sensors, meters and telemetry components required for a permanent and safe control of the project appropriate to Mongolian and international conditions and standards. The Consultant shall establish draft bill of quantity for civil works and equipment for the various components of the project. Prepare the bill of quantity in a way that it can be used for future planning and bidding documents. Set up an implementation schedule for the construction steps and present drawings of the planned water diversion structures, giving the dimensions of the diversion structures and of the agreed design discharge values.

B 10. Implementation Plans

B 10.1. Contract and Procurement Planning The Consultant shall propose the contract lots for civil works and for the electrical and mechanical equipment, and prepare a procurement strategy. Pre-qualification shall be taken into account for major contracts for civil works and electrical and mechanical equipment.

B 10.2. Implementation Schedule The Consultant shall prepare an implementation schedule of the project, including: Detailed Design and Financial Close - Detailed design - Preparations of tender documents

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- Negotiations and financial close - Procurement Preconstruction activities - Preparing access and transportation routes - Preparing construction site Construction activities - construction of dam and associated infrastructure - Installation of equipment - Implementation of EMP and RAP Startup activities - Filling of reservoir - Initial operation The Consultant shall prepare the implementation schedule is a way that a cash flow projection calculation can be developed on that basis.

B 10.3. Project Operation Organization The Consultant shall estimate the required management structure and number of employees for a proper operation of the HPP. Identify work places for the operating organization of the HPP that meet functional requirements and including necessary equipment, instruments and vehicles. The Consultant shall propose measures to cooperate with the local public communities during construction of the facilities and make an introduction to the local administrations and communities. The Consultant shall plan buildings and facilities for the operation personnel, employee accommodations and security facilities for the secure operation of the dam and the reservoir. Include a visitor facility near the dam site for receiving visitors and providing public information.

B 11. Dam Safety Measures The rules and regulations for dam structures, set out by the ICOLD shall be observed. In addition the World Bank Operational Policy OP 4.37 shall be observed, required documents prepared and procedures undertaken. This would include prepare an Instrumentation Plan, an Operation and Maintenance Plan and an Emergency Preparedness Plan. The Consultant shall prepare a list of Mongolian and accepted international regulations regarding the construction supervision and quality assurance, operation and maintenance procedures and emergency procedures to be followed by the developer and the operator of the HPP.

B 12. Legal Analyses

B 12.1. Laws, Regulations and Electricity Tariff

The Consultant shall review all effective international conventions, treaties, and bilateral agreements which Mongolia is a party to and domestic laws, policy documents, national programs essential for the implementation of the project. Legal review helps to reveal the external and the internal legal factors that may affect the project implementation, and its cause or justification, to provide an answer to some public misunderstanding about the project from legal point of view, to correctly evaluate potential external and internal risks and its factors for the implementation of the project, to envisage decisive countermeasures against such risks, and to ensure in establishing legal preconditions for successful implementation of the project.

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Electricity selling tariff shall be calculated in accordance with the Energy Regulation Commission adopted in 2005; and Resolution #74, concerning Tariff Rules for Controlling. In financial and economic calculations, all effective laws and regulations, taxes and tariffs of Mongolia shall be complied.

The Consultant shall assess the project from perspective of whether the project is eligible for an international recognition within framework of international programs, such as Man and the Biosphere sponsored by UNESCO, and the World Heritage Convention due to its significance and extents; and if it is determined as eligible, then to recommend how to accomplish such recognition in the international level and its implication in environmental and social impacts of the project, to determine possible impacts for the project’s international significance and configuration and financing for the project.

B 12.2 Management and Financing Alternatives

The Consultant shall study the current or newly emerging experiences in the world with respect of ownership rights for assets created by a project, and/or joint ownership by several parties or countries and issue a recommendation for the Shuren HPP in that respect. Recommendations must be made for the involvement of the stakeholders especially the government. The Consultant shall make a proposal for the ownership, implementation and operation of the Shuren HPP, pursuant to the Concession Law of Mongolia, by consortium comprising of foreign and local entities, and with possible involvement or financing of international organizations or international private investors. The Consultant shall propose the terms to operate and maintain the Shuren HPP, taking into account relationship with other water users. Since the project is in the concession list adopted by the Government of Mongolia (Resolution #198 of 2010) pursuant to the Concession Law, the Consultant shall propose possibilities to attract international financial institutions and donor countries, or international private capitals, including domestic investments into the project, possible types of cooperation, or project financing, special project vehicle, its right and duties, relationship with others, specific issues and scope thereof.

B 13. Financial and Economic Analyses

B13.1. Capital and Investment Costs

All costs related to the construction and implementation of the Shuren HPP shall be updated based on the feasibility design, draft BoQ and implementation plan. Costs for the implementation of the EMP, RAP and possible benefit sharing programs shall be retrieved from the ESIA and included in the total capital cost. Sources of Project financing for the selected alternative along with targeted weights for each shall be identified and ranked in the context of current conditions in the global financial market for Mongolia-related capital.Market-based, realistic Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) estimates for alternate financing scenarios and alternate project structures will be analysed.

B 13.2.Operating Expenses

The Consultant shall estimate operating expenses including: • OPEX

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• Depreciation • Interest Expense • Labor Costs • Worker’s Compensation • Other Taxes • Fee on Use of Water Resources • Land Utilization • Insurance Cost • Environmental and Social Costs • Other operational costs

B13.3. Direct and Indirect Benefits

The Consultant shall estimate the direct benefits from the power supply generation and benefits the following potential multi-purpose sectors upon implementation of the project:

• Animal husbandry and agriculture; • Tourism; • Fish farming.

In addition the economic indirect benefits of the Project shall be analyzed, such as National energy security, GDP growth rate, reduction of CO2 emissions, job creation, and production by small and medium enterprises.

B 13.4 Financial and Economic Analyses

The Consultant shall carry out an economic analysis for the proposed Shuren HPP taking into accounts the above costs and benefits. Indicators such as Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit Cost (B/C) Ratio, and Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), ratio verify, and unit cost of firm energy shall be calculated. Sensitivity analysis shall be applied on important parameters in order to assess their impact on the viability of the project. The economic analysis shall assess the Shuren HPP project compared to plausible alternatives that would deliver the same services, and prove that it is economically the preferred option for Mongolia. The choice of plausible alternatives should be motivated based on the power demand and sector review conducted as part of the feasibility study. The Consultant shall also carry out the financial analysis of proposed Shuren HPP taking into account the national demand and the costs/benefits identified. In general, the financial analysis should evaluate the commercial merits of the project under alternative power market including ownership models, financial packages and fiscal regime. The Consultant shall, as part of the financial analysis, prepare the cash flow estimate.

B 14. Risk Register Development of hydropower projects involves various sorts of risks at different stages viz., planning, design and construction stage. Risk management shall be carried out by the Consultant through the use of Risk Assessments and Risk Registers. The primary task is to define various risks, to identify measures to be taken in case the risk materializes and to allocate the risk to Employer and Employee.

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While carrying out the formal Risk Assessments in different stages of the project, various possible hazards are identified and an evaluation is carried out regarding their potential impact and probability of occurrence together with the response or strategies as appropriate for preventive and contingent actions and responsibilities etc. Risk Assessments required at each stage of the project are summarized in a Risk Register.

B 15. Final Recommendation The Shuren Hydropower Project is a large multi-purpose project with direct and indirect benefits, as well as direct and indirect impacts. It will become a one-sided view if cost-recovery, revenue and benefits of the Project are analyzed from only economic point of view. Therefore, the final recommendation for the Shuren HPP development must be made on a combination of economic, environmental, social grounds to ensure national electricity security, indirect benefits and sustainable development. The Consultant shall, based on the results of the financial and economic analyses, the identified indirect benefits and impacts, and the identified risks in this Feasibility Study, and with inputs from the parallel ESIA, make and motivate a final recommendation for the development of the Shuren HPP.

B 16. Feasibility Report and Workshop All analyses and results that led to the final recommendation for the development of the Shuren HPP shall be described in a Feasibility Study Report. This report shall be structured with a main report, which summarizes the salient findings and results, and a number of annexes that describes the results in detail. The Feasibility Study Report shall be submitted for review of the Client, Panel of Experts and the World Bank team. After giving time for review the results shall be presented by the Consultant in a workshop in Ulan Bataar, to allow discussion and clarification of the method and results, and feedback to the Consultant. This workshop shall be coordinated to be held jointly with the presentation of results for the parallel ESIA.

C. REPORTING REQUIREMENTS AND DELIVERABLES

C1. Deliverables and Reporting The Feasibility Study and Detailed Environmental and Social Assessment shall be performed simultaneously under individual agreement with separate Consultants. The Feasibility Study shall include engineering, technical, financial, economic, legal and institutional studies used for developing the project concept and justifications for its implementation. The Environmental and Social Assessment will include information collected during public consultations. Results from these two works will establish the basis for decisions on implementation of the project. Deliverables produced as a result of this TOR will packaged as described in this section.

C1.1. Progress Reporting

All reports listed below should be submitted in English and Mongolian. Unless otherwise stated, reports are submitted to the World Bank through the MINIS PMU according to the schedule given below.

Inception Report: The inception report should be submitted in English to the PMU 30 days after Date of Letter Award

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Proposed Work Program: The proposed work program should be submitted in English to the Technical Steering Committee 30 days after Date of Letter Award. Progress Reports: Progress reports should be submitted in English to the PMU monthly, following contract signature. The progress report should present a very brief overview of progress in completing the tasks, difficulties in achieving the work as described in the contract, proposed alternate means to achieve the Project objectives, status of budget and major scheduled milestones. It is anticipated that progress reports would be 1-3 pages maximum in length.

C1.2. Main Reports

Site Selection Report: This report shall present all data, information, methods, and results leading to the final site selection of the Shuren HPP.

Feasibility Study Report: This report shall present all data, information, methods, and results leading to the final recommendation of the Shuren HPP. The Feasibility Study report shall include the Feasibility Design, including drawings, technical specifications and draft Bill of Quantities.

The main reports shall be submitted, discussed and approved by the “Shuren hydropower plant project working group” under the Ministry of Energy in accordance with the current Mongolian Law on “Construction” and Regulation on “Design for construction and its expertise approval, supervision of construction works and commissioning” which was approved by the Resolution No.185 in 2010. The PMU will organize review meetings. Major comments should be incorporated in the final reports and submitted to the PMU. Main sections of reports that require extensive re-writing and editing should be re-submitted for verification to the PMU.

C 2. Management of the Feasibility Study

C 2.1 Roles and Responsibilities

Roles and Responsibilities of PMU: The Project Management Unit (PMU) is responsible for providing managerial guidance and monitoring progress of the Feasibility Study. The PMU shall monitor the fulfillments of the Consultant and shall receive the reports on the Project from the Consultant for review and approval by related organizations. The PMU shall monitor the activities of the Consultant all times and shall report to the Client.

Roles and Responsibilities of the Client: The Client for the Project is the Ministry of Energy of Mongolia. The Working Group headed by the Vice Minister of the Ministry of Energy shall perform the monitoring with assistance of PMU during the Feasibility Study Phase. The Working Group shall review and discuss the reports on Project phases and shall grant necessary approvals when required.

Roles and Responsibilities of the Consultant: To ensure fulfillment of Feasibility Study within a timeframe, the Consultant will be fully responsible for regulating their activities under transparent and united management. The Consultant shall be responsible for ensuring work interrelations, exchanging official information and organizing meetings with Consultant’s management and other key and non-key experts—as required--and in a

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timely manner. In addition, the Consultant will submit work fulfillments and will hand over reports to the PMU and the Client in compliance with Work Schedule for discussion and approval after including their recommendations.

C 2.2 Time Schedule

The work of the Consultant will be supervised by the PMU, which will be the focal point for coordination with all other ministries, agencies and any other international institutions. It will also provide liaison and contacts with the academic and applied research institutions, Civil Society Organizations and Nongovernmental Organizations. The following table and chart present the timing of major milestone events for the production of the reports described above. The Consultants Team should begin work upon contract signature. The Consultants Team should submit a detailed work plan and schedule with critical milestones with allowance for PMU and external reviews. The Consultant must provide monthly progress reports in writing during the implementation of the Project to avoid unexpected problems and to resolve problems in a timely manner. The inception reports, monthly progress reports and any other reports must be prepared in English and Mongolian. The Inception Report shall include the work plan and schedule and be clearly written.

The special and general drafts and final reports will be prepared in both English and Mongolian. The Draft Final Reports must be printed in Mongolian and be submitted to the Client, the Ministry of Energy and to the Public Representatives for comments.

o Objective Month

Submit Inception report 1

Participate in Study Launch Workshop 2

Submit Draft Site Selection Report 11

Participate in Site Selection Workshop 12

Submit Final Site Selection Report 12

Submit Draft Feasibility Study Report 21

Participate in Final Study Workshop 22 Submit Final Feasibility Study Report 24

C 2.3. Ownership and Control of Information, Data and Documents

All information and data, all intellectual property rights, ownership, licensing provided to the Consultant Team shall be used only for this Study and assessment. Documents and information/data provided to and/or generated by the Consultant Team shall not be disclosed without the expressed written consent of the PMU.

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Overview of proposed time schedule and integration of feasibility study and ESIA for the Shuren HPP

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Feasibility studyInception, Review of previous studiesmethodologyUpdated energy demand and sector analysisUpdate project area characteristic*-Updated hydrology and climate changeassessment*-Updated surveys and geotechnicalinvestigationsAssessment of power evacuation alternativesand integration to CESReservoir and Power modelling of alternativessitesConceptual Desings of alternative sitesCost and benefits of alternative sitesSite selectionComplementary assessment, surveys andgeotechnical investigations for selected sitesFeasibility level design of HPP and transmissionlines for selected sitesFormulation of Implementation PlansFormulation of Dam safety and emergencypreparedness plansFinal cost estimationFinancial and economic analysisReporting and finalization of studyESIAInception and Review of Previous studiesUpdate of project area characteristicsEnvironmental Impact Assessment ofAlternative Sites

Regional Environmental Assessment

Environmental baseline surveySocio-economic baseline surveyCultural heritage surveyImpact assessment of selected projectCumulative Impacts AssessmentDesign Mitigation MeasuresEnvironmental Management PlanStakeholder consultationReporting and Finalization of StudyReview by international advisory committeeWorkshops for presentation of results

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D. REQUIRMENT FOR THE CONSULTANT TEAM

D1. Consultants Required The firm or the leading firm/main consultant in case of associations should have international experience of similar projects in similar climatic conditions in the last 5 years. Consultants may associate with other firms in the form of a joint venture or a sub consultancy to enhance their qualifications. Consultant Team will determine the identity and biography of specialists to be involved in specific positions within the Consultant Team. Furthermore, the Consultant Team will qualify main members of the Consultant Team and all essential specialists immediately. Consultant Team must confirm that all specialists are available to work during the Project implementation period. The estimated total input of staff months, shared between international and national experts, for the Feasibility Study is 115.

D 2.Key Professional Qualifications and Competence for the Assignment Minimum qualification requirements of Consultant Team specialists for Feasibility study are presented below:

Team Leader

• Education: Advanced University (Masters or higher) Degree in hydropower plant sector;

• Experience: Minimum 20 years professional experience in his field of expertise and at least 15 years experience in hydro engineering, nature resource management, strategically, resources management, planning and environmental assessment. The team leader must have project management experience, as a team leader, regarding feasibility study for various studies, preferably dealing with large hydropower plant, and providing guidance and direction to consultants’ activities;

• Demonstrated expertise working on similar projects;

• Demonstrated experience working with multilateral banks and the application of World Bank guidelines.

• Analytical ability, practical problem-solving skills and resourcefulness in performing varied tasks in the area;

• Demonstrated skills in retrieving, gathering and obtaining information from various sources;

• Sound organizational skills and ability to prioritize and deliver assignments in a timely manner often under severe time pressures;

• Demonstrated initiative in developing practical approaches that improve efficiency and effectiveness of the project;

• Strong inter-personnel skills and commitment to work in a team-oriented, multi-cultural environment;

• Ability to provide guidance to the Working Group;

• Language skills: Fluent oral and written skills in English;

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• Computer literacy: Proficient in PC based applications such as Word, Excel and Power Point etc.

Dam/Civil Engineer


• Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in larger dam projects and water infrastructure project.

• Demonstrated expertise working on cold region countries;

• Possess a wide array of experience assessing negative influences of hydrology, river, water resource management, water infrastructure, climate change and its processes;









Power Engineer


• Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in the electrical aspects of hydropower development, power transmission and power systems.






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Mechanical Engineer


• Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in the mechanical aspects of hydropower development.










Geotechnical Engineer

• Education: Advanced University (Masters or higher) Degree in a relevant discipline;

• Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in the geotechnical investigations.





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• Computer literacy: Proficient in PC based applications such as Word, Excel and Power Points etc.

Engineering Geologist

• Education: Advanced University (Masters or higher) Degree in geology or relevant discipline;

• Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in geological investigations of potential dam sites or similar structures.










Geodesy Engineer

• Education: Advanced University (Masters or higher) Degree in Geodesy or relevant discipline;

• Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in geodetic engineering;




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Hydrologist

• Education: Advanced university (Masters or higher) degree in hydrologic sciences or relevant discipline;

• Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in hydrological survey, monitoring groundwater levels, using computer technologies to calculate flow statistics, and reservoir modeling.










Financial and Economic specialist

• Education: Advanced University (Masters or higher) finance and economics;

• Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in project related fields in developing countries.

• Ability to estimate, assess and prepare financial analysis of investment in natural resource and infrastructure development project.


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Legal specialist

• Education: Advanced University (Masters or higher) law;

• Experience: Minimum 10 years professional work experience his profession;

• Legal specialist should have experience related to instructions and requirements of the project and experienced with international development organizations, natural resource management policy and law in developing countries;


• Demonstrated skills in managing situations typical of developing countries have wide range interest;




E. PAYMENT SCHEDULE • Ten percent (10%) as an advance payment against the submission of a bank guarantee for

the amount.

• Ten percent (10%) upon acceptance of the Inception Report / Work Program and the Consultation and Communications Program.

• Forty (40%) upon acceptance of the Final Site Selection Report.

• Twenty percent (20%) upon submission of Draft Feasibility Study Reports.

• Twenty percent (20%) upon acceptance of the Final Feasibility Study Reports.

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F IDENTIFIED RELEVANT STUDIES • Semenova. B.A. and B. Myagmarjav, 1977. Hydrological regime of the Selenge River

Basin, Leningrad • Jangmin CHU, Ick Hwan KO, LuntenJANCHIVDORJ ,Bair GOMBOEV, Chang-Hee

LEE, Sang In KANG “Integrated Water Management Model on the Selenge River Basin (Phase 1-3) Seoul, Korea. 2008, 2009, 2010.

• Kuzin. P. S Selenge River in Mongolia Moscow., 1946 • Kuznetsov. N. T Hydrology in Mongolia Moscow., 1959 • Êлибашев К.П. “Гидрологические расчеты. Ленинград.,1970. • Institute of Geoecology of MAS project report “ Irrigation Systems in Bulgan and

Selengeaimag”, Ulaanbaatar., 2004-2010 • Dashdeleg.N., Bat. B Mongolian Rivers, Ulaanbaatar., 1971 • P. Kundur, “Power system stability and Control”, 1993 • R.K Rajput, “Power system engineering”, 2006 • Ardul Munoz-Hernandez, “Modelling and Controlling HydroPower plant”, 2006 • Updated revision of “Energy development plan”, 2013 • NPTG, “Balance of Generation and Consumption of CES of 2014-2020”, “2013 year

balance of power generation and load in the energy system”, 2013 • Shiirevdamba, Ts.,Shagdarsuren, O., Erdenejav, G., Amgalan, L., Tsetsegmaa, Ts.

(ер. ред.) (1997).Mongolian Red Book.ADMON publisher. Ulaanbaatar. 388p • Macdonald, D.W. and Reynolds, J.C. (2004).Vulpesvulpes. In: C. Sillero-Zubiri, M.

Hoffmann and D. Macdonald (eds.) Canids: foxes, wolves, jackals and dogs. IUCN/SSC Canid Specialist Group. IUCN, Gland and Cambridge. pp. 129-136

• Банников, А.Г. (1954). МлекопитающиеМонгольскойНароднойРеспублики. ТрудыМонгольсойкомиссии, вып. 53. Академиянаук СССР. Москва. 669с

• Соколов, В.Е., Орлов. В.Н. (1980).Определительмлекопитающих МНР. Наука. Москва. 351 с

• Newman, T.J., Baker, P.J. and Harris, S. (2002). Nutritional condition and survival of red foxes with sarcopticmange.Canadian Journal of Zoology 80(1): 154-161

• Dulamtseren S. (1989).Khangai, Khentii forest antelope ecology.Dulamtseren,S., Tsendjav, D., Avirmed, D. (ред.) , Mongolian fauna. mammals.Publishing of the Mongolian Academy of Science. Ulaanbaatar.43-92

• Zahler, P., Lkhagvasuren, B., Reading, R.P., Wingard, G.J., Amgalanbaatar, S., Gombobaatar,S., Barton, N. and Onon, Yo. (2004). Illegal and unsustainable wildlife hunting and tradeinMongolia.Mongolian Journal of Biological Sciences 2(1): 23-31. (In English with a Mongolian summary)

• Dulamtseren,S., Tsendjav, D., Avirmed, D..(1989). Mongolian fauna.mammals.Publishing of the Mongolian Academy of Science.Ulaanbaatar. 160p

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• Clark, E. L., Munkhbat, J., Dulamtseren, S., Baillie,J. E. M., Batsaikhan, N., Samiya, Ð., Stubbe, M. (compilers and editors). (2006). Mongolian Red List of mammals. A series of regional Red List.Volume I. Zoological society of London, London (Mongolian and English )

• Shagdarsuren, O. (1966). Mongolian hunting animals.Publishing of the Mongolian academy of sciences.Ulaanbaatar

• Dulamtseren,S. (1970).Mongolian mammals of documents of determine. Publishing of the Mongolian academy of sciences.Ulaanbaatar. 241х

• Batsaikhan.N, R. Samiya, S. Shar, S.R.B. King. (2010). Mongolian mammals identification guide. London

• Mech, L.D. and Boitani, L. (2004). Canis lupus. In: C. Sillero-Zubiri, M. Hoffmann and D. Macdonald (eds.) Canids: Foxes, wolves, jackals and dogs. IUCN/SSC Canid Specialist Group. IUCN, Gland and Cambridge. pp. 124-129

• Wingard J.R. and Zahler, P. (2006).Silent Steppe: The Illegal Wildlife Trade Crisis in Mongolia. Mongolia Discussion Papers, East Asia and Pacifi c Environment and Social Development Department. Washington D.C.: World Bank

• Gombobaatar. S, and E.M. Monks (compilers), R. Seidler, D. Samiya, N. Tseveenmyadag, S. Bayarkhuu, J. E. M. Baillie, Sh. Boldbaatar, Ch. Uuganbayar (editors). (2011). Mongolian Red List of Birds. Series Vol.7.Birds.Zoological Society of London, National University of Mongolia and Mongolian Ornithological Society. (In English)

• Tseveenmyadag. N, Bold, A, Boldbaatar Sh, Mainjargal. G. (2005).“Bird reference of Khentii mountain state”.Ulaanbaatar.

• 20 years, The Ministry of Environment ”. (2007). Ulaanbaatar • Reference of CITES. (2001). Ulaanbaatar • Minkhbayar, Kh. (1976).Mongolian amphibians and reptiles.Ulaanbaatar, 167х. • Семенов, Д.В., Мунхбаяр, Х. (1996).КлассыЗемноводные и пресмыпающиеся.

РедкиеживотныеМонголии (Подвоночные), Глава II, 40-71 • Семенов, Д.В., Мунхбаяр, Х. (1996).Классы Земноводные и пресмыпающиеся.

РедкиеживотныеМонголии (Подвоночные), Глава II, 40-71 • UNEP-WCMC (2007). UNEP-WCMC species database: CITES-listed species.

Availableonline at http://www.cites.org.Accessed 25 March 2007. • Munkhbayar, Kh. Terbish, Kh. (1997). Amphibians, reptiles. Mongolian Red book.III,

IV chapter. Ulaanbaatar. 133-150 • Munkhbayar, Kh. Terbish, Kh. (1997). Amphibians, reptiles. Mongolian Red book.III,

IV chapter. Ulaanbaatar. 133-150 • Terbish, Kh.,Munkhbayar, Kh. and Munkhbaatar, M. (2006). A guide to the

amphibiansandreptiles of Mongolia. Munkhiin useg, Ulaanbaatar. 72 pp. (In English)

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http://www.cites.org/

• Munkhbayar, Kh.,Terbish, Kh. (1997). Mongolian amphibians and reptiles in the Red list.III, IV chapter. Ulaanbaatar. 133-150

• Wingard, J.R. and Odgerel, P. (2001).Compendium of environmental law and practice in Mongolia.GTZ Nature Conservation and Buffer Zone Development Project and GTZ Commercial Civil Law Reform Project. Published report. (in English and Mongolian)

• Munkhbayar. Kh, Terbish.Kh, Munkhbaatar, M. (2001). “Mongolian amphibians and reptiles documents to determine ”. Ulaanbaatar

• Ocock. J, G.Baasanjav, J.E.M.Baillie, М.Erdenebat, M.Kottelat, B.Mendsaikhan, K.Smith. (2006). “Монгол орны загасны улаан данс”/"Red account of Mongolian fishes", Ulaanbaatar city

• Ocock. J, G.Baasanjav, J.E.M.Baillie, М.Erdenebat, M.Kottelat, B.Mendsaikhan, K.Smith. (2006). “Монгол орны загасны улаан данс”/"Red account of Mongolian fishes", Ulaanbaatar city

• HEC-ResSim Reservoir System Simulation, User manual, May 2013 • HEC-DSS, User’s Guide and Utility Manuals, March 1995 • HEC-DSSVue, HEC Data Storage System Visual Utility Engine, User’s Manual, July

2009 • S. ShaeriKarimi, Use of hydrological methods for assessment of environmental flow

in a river reach, October 2011 • R.S.Varshney, Hydro power structures, 1986, India • Canyon Industries, An Introduction to Hydropower Concepts and Planning, USA • Rebecca L.Teasley, Modeling the Forgotten River Segment of the Rio Grande with

HEC-ResSim, 2004, USA • Statistics Division in Selenge Province, 2009 and 2010 “Statistics of Book”, Mongolia • Statistics Division in Bulgan Province, 2009 and 2010 “Statistics of Book”, Mongolia

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