Monitoring and Early Warning in - untj.org fileTajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report – September 2015 NATURAL HAZARDS According to long-term observations, in September 2015

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Tajikistan

Publication of this report from August 2014 is made possible by the support of the United States Agency for International

Development (USAID) and MEWS Working Group. The contents are the sole responsibility of the MEDT of RT and FAST

Program, which do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

MONTHLY REPORT SEPTEMBER 2015

Monitoring and Early Warning in Tajikistan

1

Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report – September 2015

2


GENERAL TRENDS

NATURAL HAZARDS

According to long-term observations, in September 2015 a risk of an emergency caused by weather is weak.

Rains at lower elevations and snow at higher elevation are possible. In September it is also possible the

occurrence of frost in mountainous and foothill areas.

WEATHER

The temperature in September 2015 will be 10C above the climatic norm in Khatlon Province, at lower

elevations of DRD and eastern regions of GBAO. 0.5-10C above the climatic norm In Sughd Province, at

higher elevation of DRD and western regions of GBAO. Monthly precipitation is expected to be within the norm

and below the norm in Khatlon Province, Sughd Province, DRD and western regions of GBAO, within the

norm and in some areas above the norm - in eastern region of GBAO.

ENERGY SECURITY

At the end of August 2015, the water level in the Nurek HPP reservoir was 910.00 meters above sea level,

which is 3.42 meters higher than in July 2015, and 0.54 meters lower than in the same period of the previous

year. Electricity generation in August 2015 was 36.6 million kW/h more compared to the same period of the

previous year. In August 2015, 185.5 million kW/h of electricity was transmitted to Afghanistan and 42.4 million

kW/h – to Republic of Kyrgyzstan.

FOOD SECURITY

In September, wheat grain and wheat flour prices will remain stable in Tajikistan due to the local wheat

harvesting which is 776,640 tons as of September 4, 76,576 tons more compared to the same period of last

year and due to sufficient imports from Kazakhstan.

HEALTH

In August, the epidemiological situation of infectious diseases is characterized as relatively good. The risk of

acute intestinal infections increases with the beginning of autumn and in connection with the increase of fruit

consumption.

MIGRATION

In August 2015, the number of labor migrants was 45,819 people, which is 22.2 percent less compared to

August 2014. The reduction in labor migration is due to the new regulations for entrance into the Russian

Federation on International Passports from January 1, 2015, and amendments in the existing Russian

Federation legislation on the activities of labor migrants from foreign countries.

ECONOMY

The GDP totaled 23,401.7 million TJS (3,972.5 million USD) for January-July 2015 and increased by 6.7

percent compared with the same period of the last year. Industrial production increased by 13.4 percent

compared to the same period in 2014. Consumer price inflation was 2.7 percent compared to December 2014.

In January-July 2015 foreign trade turnover was equal to 2,426.6 million USD, 19.5 percent less than in the

same period in 2014. Goods exports totaled 560.3 million USD, and imports totaled 1,866.3 million USD. The

negative balance of foreign trade turnover totaled 1,306.0 million USD.

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Contents

1. NATURAL HAZARDS .................................................................................................................. 4

1.1. Possible natural disasters in September 2015 .................................................................... 4

1.2. Natural disasters in August 2015 .............................................................................................. 5

2. WEATHER CONDITIONS ........................................................................................................... 5

2.1. Forecast for September 2015 .............................................................................................. 5

2.2. Weather summary for August 2015 ..................................................................................... 5

3. ENERGY ...................................................................................................................................... 6

3.1. Electricity Generation ........................................................................................................... 6

3.2. Electricity Consumption ....................................................................................................... 7

3.3. Natural and liquefied gas ..................................................................................................... 7

3.4. Coal ...................................................................................................................................... 8

3.5. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant ........................................................................ 8

4. FOOD SECURITY ..................................................................................................................... 10

4.1. Food Security Reports ....................................................................................................... 10

4.2. Wheat Flour Prices ............................................................................................................ 11

4.3. Fuel prices ......................................................................................................................... 12

5. HEALTH ..................................................................................................................................... 14

6. ECONOMIC TRENDS ............................................................................................................... 15

6.1. General trends ................................................................................................................... 15

6.2. Labor Migration and Population ......................................................................................... 17

6.3. Employment ....................................................................................................................... 18

6.4. Exchange rate .................................................................................................................... 18

Annex A - Weather forecast for September 2015 .............................................................................. 19

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1. NATURAL HAZARDS

1.1. Possible natural disasters in September 2015

According to the Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC) of the

Committee on Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the

Republic of Tajikistan (CoES and CD), and according to long-term observations, in

September 2015 a risk of an emergency caused by weather is weak. Rains at lower

elevations and snow at higher elevation are possible. In September it is also possible the

occurrence of frost in mountainous and foothill areas.

Table 1. Historical data on Natural disasters in September 2000-2014

Causes of Natural disasters

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Total

Flood 1 1

Rain 1 1 1 3

Earthquake 1 3 3 1 1 1 2 12

Landslide, rockfall 3 1 2 3 1 1 11

Snowfall 1 1

Underflooding 1 1

Mudflow 1 1 1 1 4

Drought 7 7

Total 9 5 2 3 3 6 1 3 1 1 3 1 2 40

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1.2. Natural disasters in August 2015

IMAC/CoES reported that in August 2015 there were 19 cases of natural disasters,

including 10 cases due to descent of mudflows and 9 cases due to flooding (high water

levels in rivers.) For more detailed and recent information on the review of natural

disasters in August 2015 contact the MEWS Working Group at:

[email protected].

2. WEATHER CONDITIONS1

2.1. Forecast for September 2015

According to the Tajik Hydrometeorology Center,

the average monthly temperatures in September

2015 will be:

10C above the climatic norm in Khatlon Province,

at lower elevations of Direct Ruled District (DRD)

and in eastern regions of Gorno-Badakhshan

Autonomous Oblast (GBAO);

0.5-10C above the climatic norm In Sughd Province, at higher elevation of DRD and western regions of Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO).

Monthly precipitation is expected to be within the norm and in some areas below the

norm in Khatlon Province, Sughd Province, Direct Ruled Districts (DRD) and in western

regions of Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO, within the norm and in some

areas above the norm in eastern regions of GBAO (See Annex A for a more detailed

forecast for September 2015).

2.2. Weather summary for August 2015

In August the weather was characterized by warm temperature in Tajikistan. The average

monthly temperature at lower elevations and foothills was within the norm and in some

areas 10C below average the long-term averages:

at lower elevations and foothills, from 230С to 290С;

at higher elevations, from 140С to 230С (in Darvaz, 270С);

in high-mountain areas, from 110С to 120С.

The highest air temperatures were observed in the beginning of the month and during August 7, 17-21, when the maximum air temperature reached 38-400C at lower elevations,

1 Information in Sections 2.1, 2.2 and Annex A is based on the reports of the State Hydrometeorology Agency

of Tajikistan.

Table 2. The average expected precipitation – September 2015

Regions Precipitation

Khatlon Province

Lower elevations

1-3.3 mm

Foothills 23-87 mm

Sughd Province

Lower elevations

1-6 mm

Higher elevations

5-11 mm

DRD

Lower elevations

1-6 mm

Higher elevations

5-19 mm

GBAO West 1-6 mm

East 2-6 mm

mailto:[email protected]

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420C in southern areas and 30-350C at higher elevations (38-390C in Darvaz). The average daily temperature was 2-30C (in Darvaz 4-50C) above the norm. At night the air temperature fluctuated from 12-170C to 17-220C, in Sughd Province from 15-200C to 20-250C, at higher elevations from 8-130C to 13-180C (in Darvaz from 14-190C to 17-220C.)

The lowest air temperature were observed at the end of the month. The temperature was 27-320C at lower elevations, 340C in southern areas. The average daily temperature was 1-30C below the norm at lower elevations, 3-70C at higher elevations.

Rain showers and thunderstorms were observed in the beginning and at the end of the month. Monthly precipitation in foothills of Khatlon Province, DRD, Sughd Province and GBAO was above the norm and only in Hissor, Ishkoshim, Javshangoz and Shaymak below the norm: (see Table 3.) 3. ENERGY

3.1. Electricity Generation2

According to the information of OJHC “Barqi Tojik,” total electricity generation in August 2015 was 1,563 million kilowatt-hours (kW/h), or 50.4 million kW/h per day. Electricity generation in August 2015 decreased by 4.5 percent (52.8 million kW/h) compared to July 2015. Electricity generation in August 2015 was 36.6 million kW/h more than in the same period of the last year. This is due to the commissioning of the first unit of the "Dushanbe-2" thermal power and the second unit of “Sangtuda-2” HPP in the past year (see Section 3.5 below.) For more detailed information on electricity generation contact the MEWS Center at: [email protected] ).

Total Electricity Generation – January 2011 – August 2015 (million kW/h)

2 Data on electricity generation and consumption is provided by the Monitoring and Early Warning System

(MEWS) Expert from Barqi Tojik.

Table 3. Monthly Precipitation

Regions Less than norm %

Sughd Province 157-326%

Khatlon Province 100-429%

Sughd Province 222-704%

West GBAO 163-846%

East GBAO 137-239%


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3.2. Electricity Consumption

The following table shows the average daily electricity consumption by major regions of

Tajikistan and by the Tajik Aluminum Company (TALCO), the largest commercial consumer

of electricity. In August 2015 total electricity consumption reached 1,331 million kW/h, 4.8

percent less in comparison with July 2015. In August 2015 electricity consumption was

85.3 million kW/h more compared to the same period of the last year.

In August 2015 the 220 kW and 110 kW networks from Sangtuda-1 and Sangtuda-2

hydroelectric plants transmitted 185.5 million kW/h of electricity to Afghanistan, 2.9

million kW/h less than in the same period of the previous year and 42.4 million kW/h of

electricity were transmitted to Republic of Kyrgyzstan, in general 14.6 percent of the total

amount of electricity generated in Tajikistan. (For more detailed information on electricity

consumption, contact the MEWS Center at: [email protected]).

The total Average daily Electricity Consumption – January 2011 – August 2015 (million kW/h)

3.3. Natural and liquefied gas

The supply of natural gas to the Republic of Tajikistan was suspended in connection with

completion of the contract with the Republic of Uzbekistan in December 2012.

Tajikistan receives deliveries of liquefied gas by road and rail. According to operational

data of the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan,

enterprises registered with the Ministry imported 219,223.7 tons of liquefied gas in

January-August 2015, mostly from the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Republic of

Turkmenistan and the Russian Federation. Imports amounted to 34,747.2 tons more than

in the same period of the last year. Liquefied gas imports amounted to 38,770.6 tons in

August 2015, 16,391.9 tons more in comparison with the same period of the last year.


8


More than 60 percent of the country's motor vehicles use liquefied gas as fuel due to the

high prices of gasoline.

3.4. Coal

According to the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of RT, 164,399 tons of coal

were produced in August 2015, which is 53,998 tons more than in July 2015. 557,004 tons

of coal were produced in January-August 2015 in Tajikistan, which is 101,938 tons or 22.4

percent more than in the same period of the last year. Coal production has increased due

to the commissioning of the first unit of the “Dushanbe-2” thermal power plant and a shift

in the country’s industrial enterprises from more expensive natural gas and electricity to

more economical coal for heating and other needs (e.g., for processing coal into gas for

TALCO activities).

3.5. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant 3

The Water Volume – Nurek HPP chart below shows the volume of water in the Nurek

Hydropower Plant (HPP) reservoir at the end of August 2015 compared to the average

volume over the last ten years (2004 to 2014). At the end of August 2015, the water level

in the Nurek HPP reservoir was 910.0 meters above sea level, which is 3.42 meters higher

than in July 2015, 0.54 meters lower than in the same period of the previous year, and

53.0 meters above the “dead level” (inactive storage) (857 meters). In August 2015,

average monthly inflow from the Vakhsh River was 1,515 m3/sec, 27.7 percent more

compared to the same period of the last year.

Water Volume – Nurek HPP (million m3)

3 Data obtained from OJHC “Barqi Tojik”

9


The Water Inflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir chart below shows water inflow into the Nurek

HPP. At the end of August 2015, the water inflow was 1,127 m3/sec, which is 83 m3/sec

below the average of 1,210 m3/sec for 2004-2014.

Water Inflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir (m3/sec)

As indicated in the Water Outflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir chart below, the average water

discharge from the Nurek HPP reservoir at the end of August 2015 amounted to 1,121

m3/sec, which is higher than the 10-year-old average of 1,082 m3/sec.

Water Outflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir (m3/sec)

10


4. FOOD SECURITY

4.1. Food Security Reports

According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of RT, the most important

imported food products are grain and flour. In January-July 2015, 467.4 thousand tons of

grain at an average price of 285 USD per ton and 88.7 thousand tons of flour at an average

price of 407 USD per ton were imported into the Republic, which is 12.5 percent more

grain and 15.2 percent less flour compared to January-July of the previous year.

In August 2015 wheat flour prices remained stable in the country’s markets. As of

September 4, 2015, the average price of one 50-kilogram bag of domestically-produced

first grade flour is 168 TJS in Dushanbe markets. The price of first grade flour produced in

Kazakhstan is 171.4 TJS.

In January-July 2015, the average price of imported oil products was 668 USD per ton, a

decrease of 17.4 percent compared with January-July of the previous year. During this

period, 324.7 thousand tons of oil products were imported into the Republic, 25.6

thousand tons less than last year. Those imports included 145.1 thousand tons of diesel

fuel imported at an average price of 635 USD per ton and 134.6 thousand tons of gasoline

at an average price of 618 USD per ton.

According to operational data of the Ministry of Agriculture in 2015 the cereal crops

planting is 324,194 hectares and up to September 4, 2015 the grain harvest is 776,640

tones, 76,576 tons more compared to the same period of last year, the yield per hectare

on average is 2.7 tones.

In order to prevent a locust infestation, the National Locust Control Headquarters was

created. As of July 31, 2015, the total area attacked by locust in the Republic is 106,805

hectares, which is 30,152 hectares more than in the same period of last year. Up to the

present day, 98,403 hectares have been chemically treated, which is 27,010 hectares

more than in the same period of last year.

For more detailed information please contact the MEWS Working Group at:

[email protected].

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network for August (FEWS NET) PRICE WATCH: Food

Commodity Prices for July reported: Regional availability and price trends varied

considerably across Central Asia over the 2014/15 marketing year and in June. Wheat

grain export prices in Kazakhstan, the region’s largest exporter, have been stable since

April and similar to their respective 2014 levels. Wheat flour prices in Tajikistan were

stable between June and July, at record high levels. These trends are a reflection of

increased import dependence due to below-average production in 2014 coupled with the

effects of increased import prices due to the depreciation of the Tajikistan Somoni. Potato

harvests began in July following an 18 percent increase in area planted compared to 2014.


11


Lower prices imports (especially from Pakistan) and the arrival of harvests onto markets

increased market supplies and put downward pressure on prices that are now well below

the recent five year average levels.

Outlook

Regional availability and price trends are expected to vary across Central Asia over the

2015/16 marketing year.

Wheat production in Kazakhstan is expected to be 12.8 million metric tons (MMT) in 2015

slightly lower than 2014 and average levels. Over the past six years, the government has

supported a national agricultural diversification strategy, which includes reducing the area

planted with wheat to focus on other grains and oilseeds. Despite this, Kazakhstan has

maintained steady wheat exports (USDA /FAS) and expects to export six million MT over

the 2015/16 marketing year.

In Tajikistan, local production and regional imports will determine wheat availability and

prices over the 2015/16 marketing year. Although prices are currently record-high in

Tajikistan, wheat prices are expected to decline in the coming months as domestic

harvests and regional imports arrive onto markets. However, prices are unlikely to fall

below 2014 levels.

The full FEWS NET report is available at:

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/MONTHLY%20PRICE%20WATCH_A

ND_ANNEX_08312015%20(1).pdf

According to information published on the website of “Asia Plus" Media Group, FAO has

noted the sharpest fall in global food prices over a period of seven years. Abundant

reserves, the decline in energy prices and fears about a possible economic slowdown in

China have contributed to a sharp decline in international food prices in August 2015. For

more information, please visit: http://news.tj/ru/news/fao-otmechaet-samoe-rezkoe-

padenie-mirovykh-tsen-na-prodovolstvie-za-sem-let

4.2. Wheat Flour Prices 4

First Grade Wheat Flour

The chart below shows prices for first grade wheat flour in Dushanbe, Khujand, and

Kurgan-Tyube markets from January 2010 to the end of August 2015. In August 2015 the

wheat flour prices were stable in Dushanbe, Khujand and Kurgan-Tyube markets and

prices remained unchanged in comparison with July 2015.

4 Food and fuel prices are from UN WFP Food Security Weekly Market Monitoring, Tajikistan

http://untj.org/country_context/coordination_mechanisms/agriculture&food_security/fsms/

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/MONTHLY%20PRICE%20WATCH_AND_ANNEX_08312015%20(1).pdf

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/MONTHLY%20PRICE%20WATCH_AND_ANNEX_08312015%20(1).pdf

http://news.tj/ru/news/fao-otmechaet-samoe-rezkoe-padenie-mirovykh-tsen-na-prodovolstvie-za-sem-let

http://news.tj/ru/news/fao-otmechaet-samoe-rezkoe-padenie-mirovykh-tsen-na-prodovolstvie-za-sem-let

http://untj.org/country_context/coordination_mechanisms/agriculture&food_security/fsms/

12


First Grade Wheat Flour Prices in three main markets for January 2010 – August 2015

(TJS/kg)

The chart below provides prices for first grade wheat flour in two large regional markets in

Gharm and Khorog and the average prices for Dushanbe, Khujand and Kurgan-Tyube. In

August 2015, an increase in wheat flour prices was observed in Khorog but prices

remained unchanged in Gharm in comparison with July 2015.

First Grade Wheat Flour Prices in Gharm, Khorog, and the average price in three main

markets for January 2010 – August 2015 (TJS/kg)

4.3. Fuel prices

In August 2015 an increase in gasoline and diesel fuel prices was observed in all markets of

Dushanbe, Kurgan-Tyube and Khujand in comparison with July 2015.

13


Petrol Prices in three main markets for January 2010 – August 2015 (TJS/liter)

Diesel Prices in three main markets for January 2010 – August 2015 (TJS/liter)

14


5. HEALTH

According to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection of the Population of RT, as of

September 10, 2015, the epidemiological situation and trends on major notifiable

infectious diseases are relatively

good. Compared to the same

period of 2014, there is:

a comparative decline in the number of cases of intestinal infections and water-borne diseases, including acute intestinal infections;

a comparative decline in the

number of Typhoid fever

cases;

a reduction in the number of cases of viral hepatitis “A” and “B”;

a reduction in the number

of cases of acute respiratory

viral infections;

a comparative increase in the number of dysentery cases;

a comparative increase in the number of hepatitis “C” cases;

a comparative increase in the number of pertussis cases;

a comparative increase in the number of anthrax cases;

a comparative increase in the number of registered cases of rabies.

For other infectious diseases the epidemiological situation is assessed as auspicious.

Table 4. Statistical data on the epidemiological situation for January-August 2015 in comparison with the same period of the last year

# Name of disease 2014 2015 Change (-), (+)

1 Typhoid Fever 34 26 -8

2 Acute intestinal infections

24351 23690 -661

3 Dysentery 408 414 +6

4 Hepatitis “C” 39 42 +3

5 Pertussis (whooping cough)

2 31 +29

6 Rabies 4 5 +1

7 Tuberculosis 2842 2639 -203

8 Acute respiratory infections

162471 89219 -73252

9 Flu 4017 710 -3307

Table 5. Expected risks in September 2015 and recommended appropriate measures

Expected risks Recommended appropriate measures

Summer is the season of increased risk for the digestive system. Outbreaks of intestinal infections and food-borne disease occur in hottest months. The risk of acute intestinal infections cases increases, because during this period the protective functions of the body (immunity) are reduced. Additionally, the favorable climatic conditions of season can contribute to this.

Maintain proper storage and transportation conditions of perishable foods. To disinfect water. Currently, the main methods of ensuring a proper level of water safety are chlorination and filtration, and obligatory boiling at home. To observe personal hygiene, wash hands with soap and water before preparing food and after contact with raw products, after going to the toilet and returning from the streets.

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6. ECONOMIC TRENDS

6.1. General trends

In January-July 2015 the gross domestic product of the Republic compared with the same

period of the last year increased by 6.7 percent and amounted to 23,401.7 million TJS

(3,972.5 million USD.) GDP growth rate compared to January-July 2014 declined by 0.3

percent. The deflator index of prices totaled 100.3 percent. GDP per capita in the

reporting period totaled 2,797.2 TJS (474.9 USD.)

In January-July 2015, industrial enterprises of Republic produced goods worth 6,288.0

million TJS (1,067.4 million USD), 13.4 percent more than in comparison with the same

period of the last year. Growth in industrial production for January-July 2015, compared

with January-July of previous year, is due to the significant growth in: mining industries –

17.5 percent, manufacturing – 11.1 percent, the production and distribution of electricity,

gas, and water – 15.5 percent. The mining industry’s share of industrial output was 13.4

percent, the manufacturing sector’s share (food, textile, petrochemical, and metallurgical

industries) was 61.9 percent, and the share of the production and distribution of

electricity, gas and water supply, 24.7 percent.

The volume of gross agricultural output (in all types of farms) for January-July 2015

increased by 6.2 percent and amounted to 8,585.2 million TJS (1,457.4 million USD)

compared with the January-July of last year. The volume of gross agricultural output in the

reporting period amounted to 8,585.2 million TJS (1,457.4 million USD), including crop

production—5,714.4 million TJS (970.0 million USD), or 7.7 percent more, and livestock—

2,670.8 million TJS (453.4 million USD), or 3.0 percent more.

For January-July 2015, investments in fixed capital from all sources of finance amounted to

4,488.0 million TJS, or 761.8 million USD, 31.2 percent more than in the January-July of the

previous year. During seven months of 2015, 2,577.4 million TJS (437.5 million USD) (or

57.4 percent) were invested in production facilities. 1,910.6 million TJS (324.3 million

USD), or 42.6 percent of total investment in the country, were invested in non-production

facilities. Most investments (40.1 percent) were made in the public sector. The foreign

sector accounted for 34.7 percent, and private sector accounted for 25.2 percent.

In January-July 2015 the inflation rate in the consumer sector was 2.7 percent in

comparison with December 2014. The main contributors to inflation were food products—

3.3 percent, paid services—3.3 percent, and non-food products—2.3 percent.

The possibility of food poisoning. Be attentive to homemade canned food and follow specialists’ recommendations for proper use. In case suspicious characteristics are present in canned goods (turbidity and bloated cans), make a second thermal processing of products at 80-1000C for 15 min. It is best to abandon use of such products.

16


According to the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tajikistan, the total State budget

amounted to 8,184.5 million TJS (1,389.3 million USD) for January-July 2015, or 35.0

percent of GDP.

The total amount of credit investments as of August 1, 2015 amounted to 11.0 billion TJS

(1,867.6 million USD) increased by 24 percent compared to the same period of the last

year. The positive trend of lending is due mainly to increasing balances of loans in foreign

currency by 33.9 percent and in national currency by 10.2 percent.

The volume of loans to economic sectors for this period amounted to 7,746.4 million TJS

(1,315.2 million USD), increasing by 20.3 percent in comparison with the previous year

(2014). The volume of repaid loans reached 6,556.0 million TJS (1,113.1 million USD),

which is 84.6 percent of the total issued credits for this period.

Deposits as a source of domestic financing and the formation of the reserve base of credit

institutions, contribute to the development of the banking system and the economy of the

country. The process of attracting deposits by the banking system tends to stable growth.

Thus, the total amount of deposit balances, as of August 1, 2015, reached 7.9 billion TJS

(1,341.3 million USD), 33.2 percent more compared with the same period of previous

year. This growth was due to increased balances of deposits in foreign currency by 35.8

percent and in local currency by 27.5 percent. On the other hand, this trend also occurred

due to the increase in the balance of corporate deposits by 52.4 percent and individuals by

23.7 percent.

The development of microcredit throughout the country, especially in remote

mountainous regions, continues to be a priority and important part of the country’s

banking system. The country’s banking system is doing everything possible to implement

this national priority. From the beginning of 2015, microloans totaled 4,662.4 million TJS

(791.6 million USD), increasing by 17.8 percent in comparison with the same period of

2014. In distant high elevations of the country microloans of 598.9 million TJS (101.7

million USD) were made, 8.9 percent less than in the same period of 2014.

Total volume of credits and loans

17


For January-July 2015, foreign trade turnover amounted to 2,426.6 million USD. Compared

with January-July of 2014, it declined by 19.5 percent. Goods exports amounted to 560.3

million USD. Imports amounted to 1,866.3 million USD. Negative balance of foreign trade

turnover totaled 1,306.0 million USD.

6.2. Labor Migration and Population

According to the Migration Service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment of

the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, during eight months in 2015 a total of

428,676 labor migrants left Tajikistan, 9.3 percent less than in the same period of previous

year. 271,151 persons returned to the country.

In August 2015, the number of labor migrants was 45,819 people, which is 22.2 percent

less compared to August 2014. The reduction in labor migration is due to the new

regulations for entrance into the Russian Federation on International Passports from

January 1, 2015, and amendments in the existing Russian Federation legislation on the

activities of labor migrants from foreign countries.

The Monthly Labor Migration Outside of Tajikistan for 2010 - 2015 chart below provides

a year-to-year summary of annual out-migration numbers from 2010 to 2015.

The Total Labor Migration for 2010-2015 chart below indicates that the total level of labor

migration in 2015 is below the level of labor migration in the same period of 2014.

18


6.3. Employment

According to the Agency of Labor and Employment Department of the Ministry of Labor,

Migration, and Employment of the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, 79,579 citizens

applied to the Agency for help in January-August 2015. Of this number, 51,827 individuals

were registered as job seekers, and 36,196 individuals were recognized as officially

unemployed. During eight months in the current year, 28,073 people were provided with

jobs with the assistance of the employment services, which is 36.1 percent of the total

number of all citizens who applied. The main reasons for providing a limited number of

people with jobs were that the majority of the unemployed did not have the necessary

technical training or had lost skills due to prolonged unemployment, as well as the low

level of wages offered by employers.

In August 2015, unemployment benefits totaling 3,208.6 thousand TJS (544.6 thousand

USD) were paid to 5,807 people. As of September 1, 2015, a total of 89,750 persons were

registered with the Agency as looking for work, including 58,300 registered as unemployed

and including those persons remaining from 2014. For January-August 2015, 14,236

people were sent to vocational training, 4,013 people were provided with social-paid jobs,

and 2,543 people were provided with soft loans to start their own businesses

According to the Agency of labor and Employment, in the first eight months of 2015,

148,699 new jobs were created, which is 7.3 percent more than for the same period of the

previous year (138,584.)

6.4. Exchange rate

The chart below shows both the official National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) exchange rate

and unofficial (market) exchange rate monitored weekly by the UN WFP. The NBT rate for

September 1, 2015, is 6.33 TJS per one USD. The UN WFP reported an average market

exchange rate of 6.68 TJS per one USD in the five main markets in Tajikistan on September

1, 2015.

Exchange Rate of Tajik Somoni (TJS) against US Dollar, January 2009 –August 2015

19


Annex A - Weather forecast for September 2015

Khatlon Province and Lower Elevations of Direct Ruled Districts (DRD)

The monthly average air temperature is expected to be 10C above the climatic norm and

will be: at lower elevations 21-250C, in foothills 19-210C. In the first half of the month, the

temperature expected to be within the norm and will be 32-370C at lower elevations. In

the second half of the month the temperature will be 28-330С at lower elevations, 24-290С

in the foothills. At night the temperature will fluctuate from 9-140C to 15-20C.

Monthly precipitation is expected to be within the norm and in some areas below the

norm: at lower elevations 1-3.3mm (norm: 0.3-3.8 mm); in the foothills 23-87 mm (norm:

5-14 mm.)

At lower elevations in some areas is haze. At the beginning and at the end of September in

certain areas the West winds may increase up to 15-20 m/sec. with dusty haze.

Sughd Province

The monthly average temperature is expected to be 0.5-10C above the climatic norm and

will be: 19-220C at lower elevations, 12-160C at higher elevations. It is expected that in the

first five days and at the end of September, the low temperature will dominate, with a

decrease in daily temperature in the lower elevations down to 24-290C. In other days of

the month the average daily temperature should be 2-40C above the norm. The

temperature will be from 30 to 350С at lower elevations in the afternoon. At night the

temperature will fluctuate within 12-170C, but in the beginning of the month the

temperature will rise up to 200C. In mountainous areas, daytime temperatures will

fluctuate from 22-270C in the middle of the month, from 13 to 180C at the end of the

month. At night the temperature will vary from 4 to 100C.

Monthly precipitation is expected to be within the norm and below the norm in some

areas (norm: 1-6 mm at lower elevations, 5-7 mm in the foothills, and 5-11 mm at

mountainous areas.)

Rain showers are more possible in the beginning and end of the month. Winds are

expected to increase in some areas up to 15-20 m/sec.

Higher Elevations of DRD and Western Regions of GBAO

The monthly average temperature is expected to be 0.5-10C above the norm and will be:

at higher elevations of Direct Ruled Districts (DRD) 14-180C, in western regions of GBAO

16-210C. It is expected that in the beginning and at the end of the month the low

temperature will dominate. In the second and third part of the month the daily average

temperature is expected 2-40C above the norm. In the afternoon the temperature will

fluctuate from 18 to 280C, at western GBAO from 24 to 290C, and only at the end of the

20


month the temperature may drop to 10-150C. At night the temperature at higher

elevations of Direct Ruled Districts (DRD will be within 6-110C, in western GBAO 8-130C,

and in some days the temperature may raise up to 160C.

Monthly precipitation is expected within the norm and in some areas below the norm

(norm: 1-6 mm in western GBAO; 5-19 mm in Direct Ruled Districts.)

Thunderstorms are most probable in the beginning and at the end of the month. In some

areas, increase of wind is possible up to 15-20 m/sec.

Eastern Regions of GBAO

Monthly average temperature is expected to be 10C above the climatic norm and will be

from 5 to 100C. Only in the area of Bulunkul Lake the average temperatures will be below

the norm. It is expected that in the first decade of the month the daily temperatures will

be within the norm, and the rest of the month – above the norm. The daytime

temperature in most areas will be 14-190C, in the Bulunkul area in late September, the

temperature will drop to 00C. At night, in the first half of the month, the temperature will

be within 2-70C, then from -1 to -70C, in the Bulunkul area the temperature will be from -2

to -120C.

Monthly precipitation is expected to be below the norm and in some areas above the

norm (norm: 2-6 mm, in the area of the Fedchenko glacier – 23.8 mm.) In some areas,

increase of wind is expected up to 12-17 m/sec.

21


The aim of the Tajikistan monthly Monitoring and Early Warning (MEW) Reports is to provide regular information and succinct analysis on the evolution of natural, economic, food, energy and other risk factors in Tajikistan. Data and information in this report are provided by different sources and compiled by Group of Experts of Government organizations and institutions of the MEW Center (MEWS) under the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (MEDT) of RT with the support of UNDP and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in Tajikistan. MEWS at MEDT was created in conjunction with the United Nations Development Program in Tajikistan in 2010. The members of the MEWS Working Group include the following organizations and institutions:

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, RT

Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, RT

Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, RT

Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment of Population, RT

Ministry of Health and Social protection of population, RT

Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan

Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan

Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan

Agency on statistics under President of RT

Main Department of Geology under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan

National Bank of Tajikistan

Migration service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration and population employment of RT

OJHC «Barqi Tojik»

OJSC «Tajiktransgaz»

Hydrometeorology Government institution

Agency of Labor and Employment

Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan

The Monitoring and Early Warning Center at the MERT is not responsible for the quality and accuracy of data provided by external sources or analysis based on these data.

Contact information:

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade Tajikistan 37 Bokhtar, 2nd floor, office #225, Dushanbe 734002 e-mail: [email protected] Tel. (992 37) 223-06-96

Report is available on the website:

http://www.medt.tj/en/index/index/pageId/791/

and

http://untj.org/coordination-mechanisms/disaster-management/monitoring-and-early-warning-system


http://www.medt.tj/en/index/index/pageId/791/

http://untj.org/coordination-mechanisms/disaster-management/monitoring-and-early-warning-system

Documents

Monitoring and Early Warning in - untj.org fileTajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report – September 2015 NATURAL HAZARDS According to long-term observations, in September 2015