Monsoon Update and Forecast- August 2010

8/8/2019 Monsoon Update and Forecast- August 2010

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ameameameameMonsoon to pick up in September except central India

We reiterate that Monsoon 2010 is going to be deficient (90-95% of long term average) based on Skymet’s estimates. The

monsoon so far until 18 August 2010 was 95% of the long term average (LTA). The rainfall in the month of August has been

slightly below normal for Southern Peninsula and Central India.

We expect the monsoon to pick from here on; especially in the North-West and it has been raining in West UP and

Uttarakhand that may bring down deficit in the largest state of the country. The rainfall in the month of September 2010 is

going to be in the range of 95-99% of the LTA across India. The drought kind of situation in Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal,

Orissa and Chhattisgarh may continue.

Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh may get normal to excess rainfall and that is already reflected in

better reservoir levels in these states.

Reservoir levels in most of the country are still below 10 year average except Gujarat and Maharashtra. States in the North-

West have slightly below normal reservoir level while Bihar, Orissa, Jharkhand and West Bengal have 22%-80% below 10

year average. This could affect Rabi crop in eastern part of the country.

The deficient rainfall in Eastern India has affected acreage of paddy by 1.1mn ha and that could affect the production of

Kharif rice. Soybean growth has been good due to better rainfall and favourable temperature in Madhya Pradesh and

Vidarbha. The vegetable and fruit prices may start softening here onwards in most part of the country and that should help to

maintain food inflation in the range of 9-12%.

Analyst:

Prasad Dahapute

Tel: +91 22 4220 8931

E-mail: [email protected]

Avishek Agarwal

Tel: +91 22 4220 8953


Deepan Kapadia

Tel: +91 22 4220 8914


Proactive Universal Group

Monsoon update and forecast

India Strategy l India Research

26 August 2010



2Monsoon Update, 26 August 2010

Monsoon till date

Overall the monsoon until 18 August 2010 is near normal but has been pretty close to our forecast of 94%, which falls in

deficient rainfall category. As forecasted earlier, most parts of the North-west and Southern Peninsula has received

normal to excess rainfall. Our forecast of deficient rainfall in Central India had been precise for the states of Orissa,

Jharkhand, Bihar and parts of West Bengal; all these regions are facing acute water shortage and some of the state

governments may announce drought.

We have been wrong in forecasting scanty rainfall in Vidarbha, Marathwada and Telangana; where it was normal. We

were completely wrong in forecasting rainfall in Western UP as it received deficient rainfall against our forecast of normal

rainfall. We have been right so far for most of the 36 sub-divisions and expect near normal monsoon in the last week of

August.

Source: Indian Meteorological Department



Monsoon Update, 26 August 2010

Monsoon forecast for the mo

Monsoon 2010 may be deficient largel

we expect normal rainfall that will cat

deficient zone, which could be recov

Uttarakhand and Western UP that may

Parts of Central India viz. MP East, Ch

rainfall, hence the drought kind of s

Marathwada and Konkan may get sligh

In Eastern part of the country the rai

Sikkim and Meghalaya may get heav

Manipur may receive below normal rai

In Southern Peninsula, Kerala and Lak

while Telangana and North Karnatak

Peninsula including Andaman and Nic

Annual food inflation rate fell to 10.3%

The fall in inflation is due to higher ba

and may remain in range of high single

September ‘10

Source: Skymet, PUG Research

th of September 2010

ly due to scanty rainfall in Central India. In the north-

er to better Rabi crop. In the whole North West, U

red through excess rainfall in the month of Septem

continue until 2nd of September.

hattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa, Bihar and parts of WB

ituation may continue for them. Other regions in

tly below normal rainfall in the month of September.

fall is going to be excess and may help in recovery

showers in the month of September whereas Aru

fall.

shadweep will have excess rainfall due to western dis

a may have below normal rainfall. Rainfall in the

bar Islands may be slightly below normal.

in July from 14.6% in the prior month, with fall in pri

se effect rather than fall in absolute prices. We expe

digit.

Of the 36 metrological sub

witness normal (81-119%) ra

North-Eastern states, North I

7 sub-divisions will witne

covering Western states,

Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu

Karnataka.

Category wise no of sub-divisions

Excess

Normal

Deficient

Scanty

3

west, the food-bowl of India,

West and UP East are in

ber. It has started raining in

may continue to have scanty

entral India like Vidarbha,

of deficient rainfall. Assam,

achal Pradesh, Tripura and

turbance in the Arabian Sea,

ther areas of the Southern

es of vegetables and sugar.

t food inflation to fall further

Source: PUG Research

-divisions, 29 of them may

infall covering large parts of

dia and South India.

s excess(120+%) rainfall,

Coastal Andhra Pradesh,

, Pondicherry and South

Sept '10

7

29

-

-




How was our forecast for the month of July?

Our forecast for overall monsoon on the country was 98% of the long term average (LTA) and actual rainfall was exactly

the same. Thanks to excess rainfall in Southern Peninsula and North West, 11 sub divisions received excess rainfall

against our forecast of excess rainfall in 20 sub divisions; while there was normal rainfall in 20 sub divisions against our

forecast of 6. That is the reason why our forecast was so precise for the whole country.

We were more precise in our forecast for North-West India where Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Himalaya Pradesh and

Uttarakhand received excess rainfall that resulted in massive flooding of Punjab and Haryana.

On other hand we were completely wrong on Telangana, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada as these sub

divisions received normal rainfall against our forecast of deficient.

The sowing activity of Kharif crop had been better than our forecast supported with excess rainfall in the food bowl of the

country. The pulses and soybeans crop in Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha wasn’t affected by delay in monsoon arrival.

As reported earlier, the food inflation for the month of July remained high in absolute prices while it was reported by thegovernment in low double digits. The main reason for the food inflation to cool off is higher base effect.

How was our forecast for the month of August ?

Our forecast for overall August rainfall in the country was near normal and so far ( until 18

th

August) it has been close to90%. Since it has started raining in most of North West with flooding in Western UP, we expect some recovery in the

rainfall across the country. So far there have been 23 sub divisions with scanty rainfall against our forecast of 1.

We have been right in forecasting rainfall in Central India viz. Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Chhattisgarh.

Some of the states like Bihar have already announced drought in most of the districts.

On the other hand, we went wrong, at least in first half of the month, for North Karnataka, Marathwada and Tamil Nadu.

As there is low pressure belt in Arabian Sea, it may accelerate the rainfall in Sothern Peninsula and parts of Maharashtra

over next 15 days.

The overall crop situation for Kharif crops is mixed. There has been steady progress in Soybean crop due to adequate

rainfall and favorable temperature in MP, whereas there has been shortfall of 1.1mn ha on account drought like situation

in Bihar, West Bengal and Jharkhand.




Reservoir levels in North-west should improve by August ‘10 end

In Northern India, overall storage is better than Normal in Punjab and Himachal Pradesh. However, it is highly deficient in

the state of Rajasthan.

Situation in Eastern India continued to be in bad shape with 14 out of the 15 reservoirs below their live capacities of the

last 10 year average. Overall storage is less than normal in Jharkhand by 36%, Orissa by 41%, West Bengal by 80% and

Tripura by 22%.

In Central India, overall storage is better than normal in Uttarakhand. However, it is less than normal in Uttar Pradesh by

29%, in Chhattisgarh by 14% and Madhya Pradesh by 8%. This augurs well for Kharif crops.

In Southern India, 27 reservoirs are filled above 40% of their live capacities at full reservoir level (FRL) as on

19 August 2010. Since the storage is better than normal in Andhra Pradesh and slightly below for other states, it may

improve going forward with excess rainfall.

The situation in West India is the most comfortable compared to rest of the country. Maharashtra as well as Gujarat have

better than normal reservoir level and that should be helpful to sugarcane production for the current year in Maharashtra.

The higher reservoir levels in North-west and Southern Peninsula has been good for Rabi crop, thanks to excess rainfall

in J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

We expect good rainfall in North India and that should support the reservoir levels of the east going rivers in the country.

Hence we expect the rainfall in North-West may support the reservoir levels in the downstream dams in East India which

may help in resolving drinking water problem in Bihar and West Bengal. Hydro power generation in Orissa may get

affected if reservoir level situation remains grim.

Storage status of important reservoirs in India (as on 19 August 2010)

Live capacity at FRL

bcm

Current live shortage

bcm

Storage as % of live capacity

Current year Last year 10 years avg.

NORTHERN

Himachal Pradesh Gobind Sagar (Bhakra) 6.2 5.3 85 43 68

Pong Dam 6.2 3.9 64 27 55

Punjab Thein 2.3 1.7 73 25 52

Rajasthan Mahi Bajaj Sagar 1.7 0.4 22 27 56

Jhakam 0.1 0.0 10 27 57

Rana Pratap Sagar 1.4 0.5 37 42 59

EASTERN

Jharkhand Tenughat 0.8 0.3 38 33 38

Maithon 0.5 0.2 40 38 69

Panchet Hill 0.2 0.0 15 82 80

Konar 0.2 0.1 37 19 64

Tilaiya 0.1 0.0 15 15 52

Orissa Hirakud 5.4 1.8 34 18 50

Balimela 2.7 0.9 33 15 26

Salanadi 0.6 0.1 12 17 49

Rengali 3.4 0.2 7 29 55

Machkund(Jalput) 0.9 0.4 41 47 56

Upper Kolab 0.9 0.4 41 22 44

Upper Indravati 1.5 0.6 41 56 64West Bengal Mayurakshi 0.5 0.1 16 21 49

Kangsabati 0.9 0.1 6 24 46

Tripura Gumti 0.3 0.1 48 37 62





bcm


bcm


Current year Last year Last 10 years avg.

CENTRAL

Uttar Pradesh Matatila 0.7 0.6 91 29 56Rihand 5.6 1.0 17 20 33

Uttrakhand Ramganga 2.2 0.9 40 13 35

Tehri 2.6 1.9 75 52 49

Madhya Pradesh Gandhi Sagar 6.8 0.3 5 11 25

Tawa 1.9 1.8 94 87 72

Bargi 3.2 1.7 54 25 59

Bansagar 5.2 1.1 22 7 15

Indira Sagar 9.7 2.8 28 45 28

Chattisgarh Minimata Bangoi 3.0 1.4 47 51 61

Mahanadi 0.8 0.7 86 57 74

SOUTHERN

Andhra Pradesh Srisailam 8.3 6.3 76 50 61

Nagarjuna Sagar 6.8 3.2 46 14 41

Sriramsagar 2.3 1.2 51 NA 32

Somasila 2.0 0.7 36 8 11

Lower Manair 0.6 0.2 39 12 33

Karnataka Krishnaraja Sagra 1.2 0.6 54 70 72

Tungabhadra 3.3 2.9 88 90 81

Ghataprabha 1.4 1.2 89 93 83

Bhadra 1.8 1.2 67 95 76

Linganamakki 4.3 2.3 54 79 70

Narayanpur 0.9 0.7 86 95 86

Malaprabha(Renuka) 1.0 0.5 55 68 60

Kabini 0.3 0.2 89 66 83

Hemavathy 0.9 0.6 67 94 79

Harangi 0.2 0.2 100 98 97

Supa 4.1 1.7 42 50 53

Vanivilas Sagar 0.8 0.1 11 3 19

Almatti 3.1 2.9 93 92 85

Gerusoppa 0.1 0.1 79 75 85

Kerala Kallada(Parappar) 0.5 0.4 74 48 59

Idamalayar 1.0 0.5 50 58 63

Idukki 1.5 0.7 50 44 50

Kakki 0.4 0.3 59 73 59

Periyar 0.2 0.1 39 39 53

Tamil Nadu Lower Bhawani 0.8 0.4 53 57 63

Mettur(Stanley) 2.6 1.4 52 66 55

Vaigai 0.2 0.0 24 31 34

Parambikulam 0.4 0.2 61 75 68

Aliyar 0.1 0.1 88 97 60

Sholayar 0.1 0.1 66 91 83





bcm


bcm


Current year Last year Last 10 years avg.

WESTERN

Gujarat Ukai 6.6 4.3 65 31 57Sabarmati(Dharoi) 0.7 0.2 29 25 38

Kadana 1.5 0.6 43 45 48

Shetrunji 0.3 0.2 63 54 57

Bhadar 0.2 0.1 76 26 53

Damanaganga 0.5 0.3 54 37 46

Dantiwada 0.4 0.1 14 3 20

Panam 0.7 0.2 22 30 51

Maharashtra Jayakwadi(Paithon) 2.2 0.5 24 15 46

Koyana 2.7 2.4 89 89 90

Bhima(Ujjani) 1.5 1.0 66 32 49

Isapur 1.0 0.9 94 NA 51

Mula 0.6 0.3 52 41 66

Yeldari 0.8 0.4 54 NA 29

Girna 0.5 0.1 18 17 43

Khadakvasla 0.1 0.0 57 36 63

Upper Vaitarna 0.3 0.2 72 62 84

Upper Tapi 0.3 0.1 56 50 47

Pench (Totaladoh) 1.1 0.4 38 55 32

Girna 2.2 0.5 24 15 46

Khadakvasla 2.7 2.4 89 89 90

TOTAL INDIA 151.8 74.0 49.0 39.0 51.0

Source: Central Water Commission, PUG Research




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Documents

Monsoon Update and Forecast- August 2010