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U se realistic,quantifiablemeasures of risk.

Plan appropriate-

sized contingencyreserves.

Evaluate alternativmitigation strategie

Use Mon te Carlo to creat e b ette r, m ore realistic

sched ules an d reso urce p lans for you r projects .

Sim ulate th e p erforma nce o f you r project and

evalua te th e likeliho od of finishing on time or

within b ud get. Make m id-project corrections as you

accumulate actual performance data for your project.

Get a q ua ntifiable m eas ure of risk for the whole

project an d for ind ividua l segm en ts. This can h elp

you redu ce th e risk of delivering late or runn ing over

bu dge t by cho os ing correctly am on g alterna tive

approaches a nd s t ra tegies .No o ther r isk analysis software d oes so m uch o r

sim ulates so realistically.

How the world says project management

Quantify andanalyze the risk

of completing

your projectson time and

within budget.

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Its a reality you face with e very sch ed ule: risk.

Even the best-scheduled project involves

r isk. The truly com prehe nsive project p lan

controls i t . And that s whe re Mon te Carlo

comes in .

While a det erminist ic schedu le

uses on ly a s ing le e s t ima te of

activity du ration to calcula te t he

project sched ule , Monte Carlo

looks a t the ran ge of possibil it ies.

With Mo nte Carlo, you m ake

more informed decisions f rom

the ear l iest s tages . Perform a

go/no go ana lysis before placing a

bid. And reduce r isk by cho osing

a sched ule with a high prob abil ity

of success.

Monitor risk as you manage

your proje ct . Use Mon te Carlo

to perform regular r isk ana lyses

throu ghou t your project . As

progress i s r epor ted and a s

resou rce availabil i ty chan ges,

Monte Car lo a sse sses the

impac t on the r em a inde r of your

sched ule . With a be tter persp ective of the r isk

involved, you can m ake bett er decisions. Refine

your init ia l s tra tegy or chan ge cou rse .

Me asure the r isk for sma l le r e l eme nts of your proje ct . Mont e Carlo he lps you look a t

r isk on a local as well as on a globa l scale .

Examine a single pha se of a project , a group o f

resou rces or a se t of activit ies. Asse ss th e r isk

involved. Do a what-if analysis with the risk

adjus ted to an accept able level . And

see th e e f fec t o f tha t change on the

ent i re sched ule .

Use Monte Car lo to examine

cri t ica litythe l ikelihood tha t a n

activity will become criticaland help

you focus a t ten t ion .

Quantify risks as you build your schedule.

In P3, you assign opt imist ic, l ik ely and pessimist icdurations for each activity. You can define decision

points for br anching logic to evaluate al ternat ivecourses of act ion within a single project plan.

Monte Carlo shows you the mostl ikely cost for a project and the

l ikel ihood of complet ing i t withinbudget. This chart has been

annotated using Pr imavera Look.

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Gauge theprobability ofon-time completionDetermine t he l ikelihood of meeting d elivery dat es.Monte Car lo even he lps you m ode l the r ange o f

costs for mate r ia ls and calcula te th e po ssible effect

of a str ike u sing e ither th e Mon te Carlo or Latin

Hypercube m e thod s of s im ula t ion

Use QuickRisk to g e t a

snap sho t of p rojec t vulne rab ili ty

When you ne ed a h igh- level ,

gene ral risk assess m ent , QuickRisk

gives you a fast look a t p roject

exposu re . QuickRisk as signs

probabil i ty assumptions globally t

your project projections s o you case e a risk profile of you r project

produced as fa s t and a s eas i ly a s

poss ib le .

While Q uickRisk is a great way to get s tar ted using

Mont e Carlo, you will want to ref ine your est im ates

based on sp ec ific condi t ions , ma nagem ent

app roaches and stra tegies for each activity. For

examp le , you can e valuate a l ternative ways of

perform ing the work with sm arter, faste r, cheap er or

mo re expe r ienced re sources .

Ident i fy the most l ikely durat ion foral l projects or one project. See thel ikel ihood of complet ion within aspecif ic t ime per iod.

Monte Carlo offers model ing ref inements includingprobabi l ist ic calendars, correlat ion and inverse

correlat ion groups, probabi l ist ic and condit ionalbranching, and u ser-def inable distr ibut ions.

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Monte Car lo m ake s i t s imple to e valuate

projec t risk. Monte Carlo is complete ly

integrated with P3 using the s am e fi lesand data bas e . Once you ve bu ilt you r

sched ule in P3, run Mont e Carlo r ight

from within P3. The n u se P3s p owerful

comp ar ison graphics and repor ts to

illustra te your pos it ion .

Set up contingencies thatmake sense.

Because Monte Carlostores simulat ion results

in P3 f i les, reportsand graphics can be

easily prepared.

Now that you can see the range ofpossible outcomes, cont ingency

allowances and reserves can be set toavoid embarrassment or f ai lure to del iver.

A cost- t ime probabi l i ty chartshows the cost and complet iondate of each i terat ion of thesimulat ion. Not ice the footbal lencompassing 95 percent ofthe cases. The chart alsoshows the range of spendingl ikely throughout the project.

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Keep m anagem ent in th e loop with r epor ts tha t ge t your po in t ac ross ins tan t ly.

Mon te Carlo com es with preform atted report tem plates th at cover virtua lly every

reporting si tuation:

Activity Sche du le

Activity Stat us

Total Float

Occurrence

Schedu le Risk

Criticality

Cos t Pe r forman ce

Cos t Risk

Schedu le Logic

Create the re po rt that fi ts

your nee ds prec i se ly.

Information f rom Mont eCarlo s imula t ion a nd

Prim avera Project Plann er

(P 3) can be r epor ted in P3

or by using the WYSIWYG

custom repor t capabi li t ie s o f

ReportSmith .

Powerful analyt icalreports make i t easy to

pinpoint areas ofconcern in the project.

Share the knowledge with reportsto keep the team informed.

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M O N T E C A R L O F E A T U R E S

Monte Carlo gives you more of what you needto manage project risk more easily.

Copyrigh t 1995 Pr imaver a Sys tem s , Inc . Tr adem ar ks ( ) and r eg is ter ed t r adem ar ks ( ) ref er enced in th i s b r ochu r e ar e ow ned by the i r r espect ive com pan ies .

How the world says project management

H e a d q u a r t e r sTwo Bala Pla za Ba la Cynwyd, PA 19004-1586 USA(610) 667-8600 (800) 423-0245FAX: (610) 667-7894Internet : sales@primavera.com

U n it ed Kin gd om Of f iceE ls inor e Hou s e 77 Fu lham Pa lace RoadLondo n England , W6 8JA Un i ted Kingdo m(44) 181-748-7300 FAX: (44) 181-748-2846Internet : int lsale@primavera.com

Web s i te: ht tp: / /www.pr imavera.com

Risk Analysis and Simulation Tools

Probab ilist ic calendars

User definable distr ibution s

Custom d is t ribu t ion mod e ls

Condit ional branching using P3

activity code/custom data i tems

Probabil ist ic range est imates of

activity duration

Probabil ist ic resource requirements Prices that vary over time

Monte Carlo simulation

Latin Hypercube simulation

Criticality measures

Cond it ion al branching logic

Unit cost ta bles

Logic to des cribe reaction to e xternal

s ta te s

Logic to def ine s ub net works an d

repea t cha ins

Leveling sub ject to reso urce

constra ints

Variable reso urce availability levels

over t im e

User-def ined corre la t ions among

cos t e lements

User-def ined corre la t ions among

relate d wo rk efforts

Inverse correlation

Complete Reporting

S tandard Repor ts

Activity Sche du le

Activity Status

Total Float

Occurrence

Schedu le Risk

Criticality

Cost Perform ance

Cost Risk

Schedu le Logic

Unlimi ted cus tom repor ts

Standard Graphics

Date Proba bil ity

Duration Proba bil ity

Cost Proba bil ity

Cost-Time Envelope

General Featur es

Windows interface

Comprehen s ive o n l ine he lp Supp ort for P3 restr ic ted a ccess

Opens from P3 Fi le m enu

Editable Look

Minimum Requirements

IBM PC or com patible with 486

8 Mb RAM

20 Mb disk space

DOS 5.0+ and Wind ows 3.1, Windo ws

95 or Wind ows NT

Recommended Hardware

Pent ium (586) PC with 16 Mb RAM