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7/31/2019 Monterey Peninsula Water Supply Project CPUC Workshop Presentation July 2012
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Technical Workshops onMonterey Peninsula Water Supply Project
A.12-04-019
July 26 & 27, 2012
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Disclaimer
This presentation contains material that are for discussionpurposes.
Various graphics contains numerous estimates which are
beyond our control and subject to change.
These graphics are for illustration purposes only.
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Topics for July 26-27, 2012 Technical Workshop1. Demand Projections
2. Available Water Supply
3. Project sizing, costs and ratepayer impacts
4. Project governance
5. Contingency planning in light of possible impediments toproject completion and to meeting the December 2016deadline
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Demand Projections What are the current, short-term and long-term demand projections
for the Monterey District?
How do the demand projections compare with various filings at theCommission?
What assumptions concerning growth, conservation, infrastructureimprovements and better management of non-revenue producingwater underlie the demand projections?
How might changes in demand projections affect the sizing of the
Monterey Peninsula Water Supply Project?
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-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Normal Year Dry Year 2011 Max Month 2007 Max Month 5 Yr Avg. Max Month
AF
System Demand Max Month
5
NewSupply751 AF
ASR325 AF
18,100 AFY
1,533 AF 1,388 AF1,255AF
NewSupply751 AF
Seaside491 AF
Seaside325 AF
Sand City25 AF
Carmel R70 AF
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System Demand - Annual
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
MPWSP Pre 1995 Demand 2011 Demand 5 Year Average
Demand
AFY
4,944AFY(Firm)
10,306AFYNew
Supply9,006
Carmel R3,376
Seaside1,474
ASR 1,300
Sand CityDesal
94
TotalSupplyC
apacity=15,250AFY
18,100
12,200
13,290
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Long Term Demands
Lots of Record (LOR) = 1181 AFA
General Plan Build Out (GPBO) = 4545 AFA
Seaside Basin Replenishment = TBD by Water Master
For Demand Scenarios : Uses 5 year Avg. Demand as Starting Point. Uses 25 year and 50 year payback of Seaside Basin Uses 7 year and 20 year development of LOR Assumes Sand City growth occurs over 25 years Assumes no ASR for initial 5 years. Assumes GPBO starts at 100 AFA after LOR
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Demand Scenarios
8
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
Scenario 1 - 25 SB Payback, No Growth(except Sand City)
Customer (5yr avg) Lots of Record General Plan Buildout Seaside Basin Payback Total Supply
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Demand Scenarios
9
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
Scenario 2 - 7yr LOR, 25 SB Payback
Customer (5yr avg) Lots of Record General Plan Buildout Seaside Basin Payback Total Supply
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Demand Scenarios
10
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
Scenario 3 - 20yr LOR, 50 SB Payback
Customer (5yr avg) Lots of Record General Plan Buildout Seaside Basin Payback Total Supply
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Maximum Month in Scenarios
11
70-
1,388
1,610 1,600
Seaside369 Seaside
369
ASR433 ASR
433
NewSupply
751
New
Supply751
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Normal Year Dry Year Scenario 1 Scenario 2 - 2026 Scenario 3 - 2041
AF
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Demand Comparison to Previous Filings
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TOTAL ESTIMATED MONTEREY MAIN SYSTEM PRODUCTION
(Acre Feet AF)
2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2023 2033
FEIR 15,250
2008 CPS 14,798 14,798 16,500 18,203
2005 UWMP 15,285 18,242 18,242 18,242
2008 GRC Application 14,000 14,012
2010 GRC Application 12,821 12,821 12,321
2010 GRC Decision 11,938
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Non-Revenue Water (NRW) Main System
12 Mo. Period Production Consumption NRW
Oct 07 Sep 08 13,989 12,093 1,840 (13.2%)
Oct 08 Sep 09 12,917 11,641 1,303 (10.1%)
Oct 09 Sep 10 12,609 11,295 1,275 (10.6%)
Oct 10 Sep 11 12,381 11,239 1,445 (12.3%)
Jul 11 June 12 11,533 10,503 1,030 (8.9%)
All values in acre-feet
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Non-Revenue Water (NRW) Opportunity
12 Mo. Period Production Consumption NRW
Jul 11 June 12 11,533 10,503 1,030 (8.9%)
Main System Unavoidable Annual Real Losses = 770 AF
Current NRW UARL = 260 AF
Infrastructure Leakage Index = 1.08
* UARL is estimated using the AWWA Audit Software
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Main Breaks
15
1.01
0.31
0.19
0.17
0.10
0.10
0.07
0.04
0.02
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20
DUARTE, CALIFORNIA (CAW)
MONTEREY DISTRICT, CALIFORNIA (CAW)
CALIFORNIA AMERICAN WATER
SAN MARINO, CALIFORNIA (CAW)
BALDWIN HILLS, CALIFORNIA (CAW)
LARKFIELD, CALIFORNIA (CAW)
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA (CAW)
SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA (CAW)
VENTURA, CALIFORNIA (CAW)
Main Leaks per Mile of Pipeline Comparison - CAW
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$ Conservation Spend Per Customer
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$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
4-Year (2008 - 20011)Average Annual Spend
2012 2013 2014
$ Conservation Spend Per Customer
Conservation Spend, Cal-Am+MPWMD Budgeted Spend Average Monthly Customer Bill
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Available Water Supply What possible impediments lie in the path of receiving water, on
a dependable basis, from the following sources:
Recycled water
Aquifer Storage Recovery (ASR) Replenishment
Sand City Desalination Plant
Slant Wells
California-American Water Company (Cal-Am) ownedDesalination plant facilities
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System Production with and without GWR
EIR Demand (AFY) 15,250
Seaside Wells (AFY) 1,474
Sand City Desal (AFY) 94
Carmel RiverLegal Right (AFY)
3,376
ASR Recovery (AFY) 1,300
Desal to CAW (AFY) 9,006
Required Plant Size* (MGD) 9.0
*By Comparison, North Marina Project proposed an 11 MGD (12,300 AFY) and the RDP proposed a 10 MGD Plant (11,200 AFY)
EIR Demand (AFY) 15,250
Seaside Wells (AFY) 1,474
Sand City Desal (AFY) 94
Carmel RiverLegal Right (AFY)
3,376
ASR Recovery (AFY) 1,300
GWR Recovery (AFY) 3,500
Desal to CAW (AFY) 5,506
Required Plant Size* (MGD) 5.4
WITH GROUNDWATER REPLENISHMENT WITHOUT GROUNDWATER REPLENISHMENT
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Project Sizing, Costs and Ratepayer Impacts Based on the net demand and available supply, what is the optimal
size of the project and estimated cost of the total project and Cal-Am only facilities?
Normal practice would be to size Facilities to meet a 19,795 AFA demand andinitially operate them at less than 50% of capacity.
Connection Fee should be collected to supply water over 15,250 AFA
Estimated Cost of facilities are as follows:
9.0 MGD Plant = $260M5.4 MGD Plant = $213M
Cal-Am Facilities = $107M
Total Cost range: $320M - $367M
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Project Sizing, Costs and Ratepayer Impacts (continued)
What is the cumulative impact on ratepayers if all current Cal-Am requested rate increases were approved by theCommission?
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Assumptions:
Usage = 1ccf = 100 cubic feet = 748 gallons Proposed 2017 bill includes multiple estimates Reflects data from May 2011 22
Projected Impact to Monterey Water Bills
Project Usage (ccf)2012 CurrentMonthly Bill
2017 ProjectedMonthly Bill
Range
$ Increase
Related toWater Supply
Project
25th Percentile Bill 3 $21.12 $40 - $59 $17 - $26
50th Percentile Bill 5 $28.90 $54 - $83 $22 - $37
Average Bill 6 $34.09 $64 - $97 $29 - $43
75th Percentile Bill 8 $44.48 $86 - $126 $35 - $56
95th Percentile Bill 16 $146.58 $299 - $511 $119 - $223
Average Commercial Bill 62 $348.97 $709 - $774 $288 - $356
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Project Governance What are Cal-Ams plans for governance-related issues on the
project?
How will project oversight and governance ensure participationby ratepayers?
What possible impediments face Cal-Ams proposed governancestructure?
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Contingency Planning in Light of Possible Impediments to
Project Completion and to Meeting December 2016 Deadline
What are potential issues that could delay or derail the project?
What are Cal-Ams contigency plans, and related cost and schedulingimplications, if:o State Revolving Funds are not available or are significantly limited or
delayed?o ASR replenishment water is significantly limited or not available?o Grey water is not available for recycling?o Slant wells do not meet project technical criteria?o Environmental issues require relocation of desalination facilities or slant
wells?
o Capacity or availability of outfall is insufficient?o Amended Ocean Plan sets brine disposal standards that are
incompatible with the project as proposed?o Dynamics of sea water intrusion change in unexpected manner?o Project delays occur due to water rights-related issues; ownership-
related issues; permitting; acquisition of land for desalination facilities
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Questions?
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