Monthly Employment Summary March 2016

GREATER ST. LOUIS

EMPLOYMENT SUMMARY

March 2016 Preliminary Data

Prepared April 27, 2016

Unemployment Rate | PEOPLE Seasonally adjusted

March 2016 February 2016 January 2016

St. Louis MSA 4.7% 4.7% 4.7

Illinois 6.5% 6.4% 6.3%

Missouri 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%

United States 5.0% 4.9% 4.9%

Payroll Employment | JOBS Seasonally adjusted

March 2016 Job Change

Over the Month Percent Change Over the Month

St. Louis MSA 1,355,300 -4,800 -0.4%

Illinois 6,009,000 14,700 0.2%

Missouri 2,798,300 -1,500 -0.1%

United States 143,774,000 215,000 0.1%

OVERVIEW

Monthly Employment Summary | page 2

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics1


The St. Louis Region’s adjusted unemployment rate continues to track very closely to the nation. The nation’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 5.0% in March, just above 4.9% posted in February. The region’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, holding steady at 4.7% since January, remains just below the nation. Nationally, the preliminary seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment numbers for March saw the addition of 215,000 jobs or a 0.1% increase. The region’s seasonally adjusted payroll employment fell by 4,800 jobs for an over-the-month loss of 0.4%. The region’s not-seasonally adjusted payroll employment data series points to continued job growth. Over-the-year unadjusted job data from March 2015 to March 2016 shows that total employment in the region rose by 22,800 or a 1.7% growth rate. At the same time employment grew by 2.0% nationally (See page 9). This summary is available on the Economic Overview page of the St. Louis Regional Chamber website. http://www.stlregionalchamber.com/regional-data/economy. The next summary will be available June 1, 2016. Please note that the preliminary data presented in this summary is subject to change. This month, the regional unemployment data is provisional and subject to change. One month’s data does not necessarily indicate a trend (See page 8). Please refer to the page 4 to see long term unemployment trends and page 7 to look at nonfarm employment trends since 1990.

ST. LOUIS, MO-IL MSA LABOR FORCE Not seasonally adjusted

MONTHLY ANNUAL AVERAGE

March

2016 (P) March 2015

Percent Change

2015 2014 Percent Change

Total Civilian Labor Force

1,490,985 1,469,120 1.5% 1,481,423 1,457,491 1.6%

Total Employed 1,415,543 1,385,846 2.1% 1,406,552 1,366,121 3.0%

Total Unemployed 75,442 83,274 - 9.4% 74,871 91,370 -18.1%

Unemployment Rate 5.1% 5.7% — 5.1% 6.3% —

UNITED STATES LABOR FORCE Not Seasonally adjusted

Total Civilian Labor Force

158,854,000 156,318,000 1.6% 157,130,000 155,922,000 0.8%

Total Employed 150,738,000 147,635,000 2.1% 148,834,000 146,305,000 1.7%

Total Unemployed 8,116,000 8,683,000 -6.5% 8,296,000 9,617,000 -13.7%

Unemployment Rate 5.1% 5.6% — 5.3% 6.2% —


Labor Force & Unemployment Rates | PEOPLE

Snapshot ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT

From March 2015 to March 2016, the number of employed persons in the St. Louis region increased by nearly 29,700 while the labor force increased by about 21,900.


MONTHLY ANNUAL AVERAGE

March 2016 (P)

March 2015

Percent Change

2015 2014 Percent Change


U.S. Metros RATE CHANGE

March 2016 unemployment rate compared to March 2015

387 metropolitan areas total

Lower 270 Unchanged 19 Higher 98

JOBLESS RATE Ten areas registered rates of less than 3% Eleven areas registered rates of at least 10%



Note: Monthly data are not seasonally adjusted and March 2016 rates are preliminary


Unemployment Trends | PEOPLE

Snapshot NATIONAL COMPARISON

The region’s unemploy-ment rate continues to track closely with the national unemployment rate.

Unemployment by Peer Markets | PEOPLE

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%2

00

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

St. Louis MSA U.S.

6.6

%

5.9

%

5.2

%

5.1

%

5.1

%

5.1

%

5.0

%

4.9

%

4.8

%

4.6

%

4.4

%

4.0

%

3.8

%

3.3

%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Chic

ag

o

Pitts

burg

h

Atlanta

Cha

rlott

e

U.S

.

St. L

ou

is

India

nap

olis

Baltim

ore

Cin

cin

nati

Researc

h T

rian

gle

Kan

sas

City

Min

neap

olis

Dallas

Den

ver


Geographic Distribution of Unemployment Rates | PEOPLE

March 2016




Civilian Labor Force | PEOPLE

AREA

CURRENT MONTH - March 2016 (P) YEAR AGO - March 2015

Labor Force Employment Unemployment

Labor Force Employment Unemployment

Number Rate Number Rate

United States 158,854,000 150,738,000 8,116,000 5.1% 156,318,000 147,635,000 8,683,000 5.6%

Illinois 6,619,887 6,173,016 446,871 6.8% 6,452,137 6,065,090 387,047 6.0%

Missouri 3,140,914 2,989,791 151,123 4.8% 3,098,397 2,918,435 179,962 5.8%

St. Louis, MO-IL 1,490,985 1,415,543 75,442 5.1% 1,469,120 1,385,846 83,274 5.7%

Missouri Counties

Franklin 53,479 50,847 2,632 4.9% 52,940 49,631 3,309 6.3%

Jefferson 119,379 113,654 5,725 4.8% 118,365 111,196 7,169 6.1%

Lincoln 27,363 25,966 1,397 5.1% 27,123 25,306 1,817 6.7 %

St. Charles 219,433 211,048 8,385 3.8% 216,155 206,094 10,061 4.7%

St. Louis County 543,806 519,796 24,010 4.4% 536,820 508,235 28,585 5.3%

Warren 17,609 16,769 840 4.8% 17,401 16,353 1,048 6.0%

St. Louis City 163,334 154,414 8,920 5.5% 162,146 150,970 11,176 6.9%

Illinois Counties

Bond 8,041 7,518 523 6.5% 7,845 7,416 429 5.5%

Calhoun 2,391 2,211 180 7.5% 2,357 2,184 173 7.3%

Clinton 20,386 19,243 1,143 5.6% 19,913 18,972 941 4.7%

Jersey 11,262 10,485 777 6.9% 11,019 10,338 681 6.2%

Macoupin 23,526 21,818 1,708 7.3% 22,982 21,520 1,462 6.4%

Madison 134,928 125,547 9,381 7.0% 131,255 123,557 7,698 5.9%

Monroe 18,173 17,272 901 5.0% 17,778 17,000 778 4.4%

St. Clair 127,875 118,955 8,920 7.0% 125,021 117,074 7,947 6.4%

Missouri Cities of 25,000 or more

Ballwin 17,441 16,853 588 3.4% 17,154 16,478 676 3.9%

Chesterfield 25,442 24,626 816 3.2% 25,059 24,079 980 3.9%

Florissant 28,985 27,705 1,280 4.4% 28,600 27,089 1,511 5.3%

Hazelwood 14,287 13,557 730 5.1% 14,046 13,255 791 5.6%

Kirkwood 16,156 15,641 515 3.2% 15,909 15,293 616 3.9%

Maryland Hgts. 16,670 16,027 643 3.9% 16,442 15,670 772 4.7%

O'Fallon 48,245 46,654 1,591 3.3% 47,391 45,559 1,832 3.9%

St. Charles 38,721 37,175 1,546 4.0% 38,159 36,302 1,857 4.9%

St. Louis 163,334 154,414 8,920 5.5% 162,146 150,970 11,176 6.9%

St. Peters 34,168 32,991 1,177 3.4% 33,725 32,217 1,508 4.5%

University City 19,357 18,561 796 4.1% 19,119 18,148 971 5.1%

Wentzville 18,689 18,103 586 3.1% 18,350 17,678 672 3.7%

Wildwood 19,513 18,872 641 3.3% 19,203 18,452 751 3.9%

Illinois Cities of 25,000 or more

Alton 11,688 10,752 936 8.0% 11,554 10,582 972 8.4%

Belleville 22,619 21,039 1,580 7.0% 22,058 20,707 1,351 6.1%

Collinsville 13,048 12,141 907 7.0% 12,687 11,949 738 5.8%

East St. Louis 9,033 8,056 977 10.8% 8,850 7,928 922 10.4%

Granite City 13,780 12,372 1,408 10.2% 13,067 12,176 891 6.8%

O'Fallon 13,789 12,990 799 5.8% 13,517 12,784 733 5.4%


ST . L O U I S M S A U N I T ED ST AT E S

Year Nonfarm

Employment Change

Percent Change

Nonfarm Employment

Change Percent Change

1992 1,160,900 2,700 0.2% 108,802,000 375,000 0.3%

1993 1,177,400 16,500 1.4% 110,935,000 2,133,000 2.0%

1994 1,209,600 32,200 2.7% 114,398,000 3,463,000 3.1%

1995 1,229,500 19,900 1.6% 117,407,000 3,009,000 2.6%

1996 1,250,400 20,900 1.7% 119,836,000 2,429,000 2.1%

1997 1,274,700 24,300 1.9% 122,951,000 3,115,000 2.6%

1998 1,295,700 21,000 1.6% 126,157,000 3,206,000 2.6%

1999 1,312,300 16,600 1.3% 129,240,000 3,083,000 2.4%

2000 1,327,000 14,700 1.1% 132,024,000 2,784,000 2.2%

2001 1,328,400 1,400 0.1% 132,087,000 63,000 0.0%

2002 1,321,600 (6,800) -0.5% 130,649,000 (1,438,000) -1.1%

2003 1,312,500 (9,100) -0.7% 130,347,000 (302,000) -0.2%

2004 1,312,100 (400) 0.0% 131,787,000 1,440,000 1.1%

2005 1,328,100 16,000 1.2% 134,051,000 2,264,000 1.7%

2006 1,341,800 13,700 1.0% 136,453,000 2,402,000 1.8%

2007 1,350,900 9,100 0.7% 137,999,000 1,546,000 1.1%

2008 1,347,300 (3,600) -0.3% 137,242,000 (757,000) -0.5%

2009 1,290,700 (56,600) -4.2% 131,313,000 (5,929,000) -4.3%

2010 1,281,300 (9,400) -0.7% 130,361,000 (952,000) -0.7%

2011 1,293,600 12,300 1.0% 131,932,000 1,571,000 1.2%

2012 1,294,300 700 0.1% 134,175,000 2,243,000 1.7%

2013 1,303,900 9,600 0.7% 136,381,000 2,206,000 1.6%

2014 1,319,700 15,800 1.2% 138,958,000 2,577,000 1.9%

2015 1,343,700 24,000 1.8% 141,865,000 2,907,000 2.1%

1992 - 2015 Total Change 182,800 15.7% Total Change 33,063,000 30.4%

Compound Average Growth Rate 0.64% Compound Average Growth Rate 1.16%

monthly employment summary | page 7

Over the Year Change

Nonfarm Employment | JOBS

ST . L O U I S M S A U N I T ED ST AT E S

Year March (P) Change Percent Change

March (P) Change Percent Change

2015 1,321,100 19,900 1.5% 140,099,400 2,912,000 2.1%

2016 1,343,900 22,800 1.7% 142,876,900 2,778,000 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics9

Nonfarm Employment | JOBS


U.S. Metro RATE CHANGE

March 2016 nonfarm employment compared to March 2015

387 metropolitan areas total

Increased 332 Unchanged 4 Decreased 51


Employment Growth by Peer Markets| JOBS

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 11



0.2

% 1.3

%

1.4

% 1.7

%

1.8

%

1.8

%

2.0

%

2.1

% 2.6

%

2.7

% 3.0

%

3.1

%

3.3

%

3.9

%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Pitts

burg

h

Kan

sas C

ity

India

na

polis

St. L

ouis

Min

nea

polis

Chic

ago

United S

tate

s

Cin

cin

nati

Baltim

ore

Cha

rlotte

Atla

nta

Den

ver

Researc

h T

ria

ngle

Dallas

Snapshot - Monthly and Average Nonfarm Employment Growth March 2012– March 2016 | JOBS

Snapshot St. Louis Nonfarm Employment

Monthly seasonally adjusted employment growth varies widely while averages show a more stable picture.

(3,4

00)

(1,0

00)

2,7

00

(3,6

00)

700

(100)

1,9

00

1,0

00

1,7

00

900

2,1

00

(200)

500 1

,300

400

1,9

00

1,0

00

1,3

00

(200)

1,4

00

1,6

00

(3,5

00)

5,3

00

1,3

00

6,7

00

(1,2

00) (1

00)

2,2

00

2,5

00

(1,2

00)

7,2

00

1,5

00

-3,5

00

600

(1,1

00)

5,1

00

2,4

00 3

,600

3,9

00

600

2,3

00

2,5

00

(2,5

00)

1,5

00

600

7,1

00

(4,8

00)

(6,000)

(4,000)

(2,000)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,0004/1

2

7/1

2

10

/12

1/1

3

4/1

3

7/1

3

10

/13

1/1

4

4/1

4

7/1

4

10

/14

1/1

5

4/1

5

7/1

5

10

/15

1/1

6

3/1

6

12-month Average

Employment Trends by Industry Sector| JOBS

PERCENT CHANGE IN NONFARM EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR ST. LOUIS MSA AND U.S. MARCH 2015 TO MARCH 2016

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics13 Note: Monthly data are not seasonally adjusted and March 2016 rates are preliminary

CHANGE IN NONFARM EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR ST. LOUIS MSA MARCH 2015 TO MARCH 2016


1.7%1.6%

-1.3%

1.2%

-3.5%

3.3%

1.8%

4.5%

3.6%

2.4%

3.8%

0.6%

2.0%2.2%

-…

1.9%

1.5%1.8%

3.1%

1.9%

3.5%3.2%

1.3%

0.5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%T

ota

lN

on

-Fa

rm

Min

ing,

Lo

ggin

g &

Con

stru

ctio

n

Manu

fact

uring

Tra

de

,T

ransport

atio

n &

Util

ities

Info

rma

tion

Fin

an

cial

Act

iviti

es

Pro

fess

ion

al

& B

usi

ne

ssS

erv

ice

s

Edu

cation

Hea

lth C

are

Le

isure

&H

ospita

lity

Oth

er

Se

rvic

es

Govern

ment

St. Louis U.S.

22,800

900

(1,500)

3,000

(1,000)

2,800 3,600

1,700

7,200

3,400 1,800

900

(5,000)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

To

tal

Non

-Farm

Min

ing,

Lo

ggin

g &

Con

str

uction

Ma

nu

factu

rin

g

Tra

de,

Tra

nsp

ort

atio

n &

Utilities

Info

rmatio

n

Fin

an

cia

lA

ctiv

itie

s

Pro

fess

ional

& B

usi

ness

Serv

ices

Edu

cation

Hea

lth C

are

Le

isure

&H

ospitalit

y

Oth

er

Serv

ice

s

Govern

ment

Forecast Month

72 economists participate in a

monthly, national economic forecast

published by the Wall Street Journal;

this monthly consensus forecast

shows expectations for modest

economic growth through 2018.

Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Survey14

Snapshot U.S. GDP is forecast to grow by 2.1% in 2016, 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018.

The nation’s unemployment rate is expected to continue to stay below 5.0% through the end of 2018.

Economists continue to expect employment growth over the next 12 months. The forecast for jobs per month in April was 185,376, a level that would add 2.2 million jobs over the next 12 months or an annual growth rate of about 1.6%.

YEAR END UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

MONTHLY PAYROLL GROWTH FORECASTS

National Forecasts

ANNUAL GDP FORECASTS


2.1% 2.3% 2.2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

2016 2017 2018

4.7%

4.6%

4.7%

4.5%

4.6%

4.7%

4.8%

4.9%

5.0%

Dec 2016 Dec 2017 Dec 2018

218,5

86

219,5

05

220,3

32

207,5

05

209,3

99

204,2

48

190,0

89

193,2

64

199,4

14

190,6

10

179,2

85

190,1

62

185,3

76

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Apr

'15

May '1

5

Ju

ne '15

Ju

ly '1

5

Aug

'15

Sep

t '1

5

Oct

'15

Nov '1

5

Dec '1

5

Ja

n '16

Feb

'16

Mar

'16

Apri

l '1

6

Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on current

employment in the Employment Situation. The data comes from two

different surveys: the Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the

household survey, and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey,

also known as the establishment or payroll survey.

While both surveys measure employment, they have different samples,

definitions of employment, estimation procedures, and concepts. These

two series track well together over long periods but, in the short term, do

occasionally diverge.

CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY

CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS SURVEY

MONTHLY SAMPLE Approximately 60,000

households

160,000 businesses & government agencies; firms

of all sizes are included

MEASUREMENT Unemployment &

employment with significant demographic detail

Employment, earnings, & hours with significant

industrial & geographic detail

REFERENCE PERIOD Week that includes

the 12th of the month Pay period that includes

the 12th of the month

WORK FORCE Only workers

aged 16 and older Employees of all

ages are included

EXHIBITS The number of

employed persons The number of

nonfarm payroll jobs

MULTIPLE JOB HOLDERS Counted once Counted for each payroll job

SELF-EMPLOYED PERSONS

Included Excluded

AGRICULTURE SECTOR Included Excluded

PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD WORKERS

Included Excluded

UNPAID FAMILY WORKERS

Included Excluded

WORKERS ON LEAVE Included Excluded

Source: BLS, Monthly Labor Review15

monthly employment summary | page 11

Survey Comparison

Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development16


Current Employment Statistics Survey

Local Area Unemployment Statistics Survey

DESCRIPTION DATA SOURCE DEFINITION PROVISIONS

Monthly survey of nonfarm business establishments for the estimation of industry employment, hours & earnings, for the 50 states & 250 metropolitan statistical areas surveyed. The program is a federal-state cooperative program between the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statis-tics & State agencies. The nation-al sample Consists of 400,000 businesses & is the largest survey of its kind. Employed: the count of jobs by place of work rather than of em-ployed persons Industry employment time series

Total number of non-supervisory/production workers

One of the earliest monthly economic indicators released by the government; usually causes immediate reaction in the stock and bond market Average weekly hours earnings View of the nation’s economic health through employment num-bers; earnings trends and wage push inflation through average hourly earnings; and short term fluctuations in demand through average weekly hours of work

Monthly estimates of labor force, employment, and unemployment for state and local areas. The local unemployment estimates are the basis for determining area eligibility for benefits under the Workforce Invest Act & other federal programs.

Cooperative effort between the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & State agencies. Models use both current & historical data from the Current Population Survey, Current Employment Statistics program, & Unemployment Insurance statistics program to provide estimates of employment & unemployment. Persons age 16 or older who, in the survey week, worked for pay or profit, or worked unpaid in a family operated business, or were temporarily absent from their regular jobs. Labor force, employment and unemployment rates Comparative rates Monthly date from 1990 to present Insight into state and local governments’ planning and budgetary decisions Aids in the determination of need for em-ployment and training services Determination of eligibility for federal pro-grams and formula funding

1

“Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)” , “Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Esti-mates” and “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/lau/home.htm#TABLES, Accessed 4/27/16.

2 “Employment, Hours, and Earnings (CES)” U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment, Accessed 4/27/16.

3

“Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)” and “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/data/#unemployment, Accessed 4/27/16. “Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Missouri Economic Research and Information Center, http://www.missourieconomy.org/indicators/laus/default.aspx, Accessed 4/27/16.

4 “Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)” and “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/data/#unemployment, Accessed 4/27/16.


6 “Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment - March 2016” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/metro.pdf, Accessed 4/27/16.



9 “Employment, Hours, and Earnings (CES)” U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=sm , Accessed 4/27/16.



12 “Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment - March 2016” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/metro.pdf, Accessed 4/27/16.


14 “Wall Street Journal Economic Survey: April2016” http://online.wsj.com/public/page/economic-forecasting.html, Accessed 4/27/16.

15 “Understanding the Employment Measures from the CPS and CES Survey” Monthly Labor Review, February 2006, http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/02/art2full.pdf, Accessed 5/1/09.

16 Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, http://www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/Home.htm, Accessed 5/1/09.


Sources

http://data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=sm






ST. LOUIS REGIONAL CHAMBER O N E M E T R O P O L I T A N S Q U A R E ◦ S U I T E 1 3 0 0 ◦ S T . L O U I S , M O 6 3 1 0 2 ◦ 3 1 4 . 2 3 1 . 5 5 5 5 ◦ W W W . S T L R E G I O N A L C H A M B E R . C O M

THE ST. LOUI S REGIO N AL CHAMBER I S THE CHAMBER OF CO MMERCE AND ECONO MI C DEVELO PMENT ORGANIZATIO N FOR G REATER ST. LOUIS , W HICH INCLUDES 15 COUNTI ES IN MI SSOURI & I LL INOI S.

COMPILED BY

RUTH SERGENIAN

DIRECTOR, ECONOMIC RESEARCH & ANALYSIS

THOMAS WASH ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INTERN

PREPARED April 27, 2016

Next release June 1, 2016

NEXT UPDATES • April 2016 data BLS U.S. Level ◦ May 6

BLS State Level ◦ May 20

MO & IL State Labor Market Release ◦ May May 24 and 26

BLS Metro Level ◦ June 1

ST. LOUIS, MO-IL MSA

Documents

Monthly Employment Summary March 2016