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www.fairtreeprivateclient.com MONTHLY INSIGHTS MAY 2019

MONTHLY INSIGHTS · Mr Price Group Ltd Discovery Holdings Ltd Clicks Group Limited Anglo American Pla num Ltd Woolworths Group Limited Gold Fields Ltd Tiger Brands Limited Psg Group

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Page 1: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · Mr Price Group Ltd Discovery Holdings Ltd Clicks Group Limited Anglo American Pla num Ltd Woolworths Group Limited Gold Fields Ltd Tiger Brands Limited Psg Group

www.fairtreeprivateclient.com

MONTHLY INSIGHTSMAY 2019

Page 2: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · Mr Price Group Ltd Discovery Holdings Ltd Clicks Group Limited Anglo American Pla num Ltd Woolworths Group Limited Gold Fields Ltd Tiger Brands Limited Psg Group

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

Return

Allied Electronics Corp Ltd Altron Shs ­A­

Gold Fields Ltd

Lewis Group Limited

AngloGold Ashan� Limited

Datatec Ltd.

Fortress REIT Ltd Class B

21.84

21.30

19.30

12.98

9.92

8.84

JSE Winners ­ 1 month

Time Period: 2019/01/01 to 2019/05/31

Return

Kumba Iron Ore Limited

Impala Pla�num Holdings

Telkom SA, Ltd.

Allied Electronics Corp Ltd Altron Shs ­A­

Anglo American Pla�num Ltd

Sibanye Gold Limited

62.90

58.12

44.92

39.44

37.61

37.33

JSE Winners ­ YTD

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR

FTSE/JSE Top 40 TR ZAR

FTSE/JSE SA Resources TR ZAR

FTSE/JSE Ind/Industrials TR ZAR

FTSE/JSE Financial 15 TR ZAR

FTSE/JSE Top 40 SWIX TR ZAR

FTSE/JSE Mid Cap TR ZAR

FTSE/JSE Small Cap TR ZAR

Beassa ALBI TR ZAR

STeFI Composite ZAR

MSCI ACWI Ex USA NR USD

­4.84 0.73 11.64 2.43 4.17 5.44 7.09

­5.09 1.19 12.77 2.80 4.10 5.16 7.64

­5.09 ­2.70 23.07 16.59 15.85 ­0.43 9.56

­3.88 ­3.23 ­3.77 ­9.25 1.78 1.25 ­1.77

­6.30 1.36 8.97 0.21 2.19 4.91 5.75

­1.91 0.51 6.40 6.03 8.44 8.15 5.10

­3.53 ­2.78 5.19 0.47 2.20 5.45 1.76

0.64 2.74 5.93 7.75 10.50 8.32 5.26

­5.37 ­2.29 2.30 ­6.26 6.73 1.31 7.15

­2.68 ­0.76 ­2.31 ­13.70 ­2.73 1.79 ­1.47

0.61 1.82 3.61 7.29 7.44 7.06 3.00

South African Indices

American Indices

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

DJ Industrial Average TR USD

S&P 500 TR USD

NASDAQ Composite TR USD

US Dollar

CBOE Market Vola�lity (VIX)

­6.32 ­3.66 ­1.70 4.05 14.46 10.88 7.54

­6.35 ­0.67 0.74 3.78 11.73 9.66 10.74

­7.79 ­0.77 2.25 1.23 15.92 13.22 12.85

0.28 1.66 0.49 4.01 0.64 3.99 1.64

42.61 26.59 3.54 21.26 9.66 10.42 ­26.40

European Indices

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

FTSE 100 TR GBP

FSE DAX TR EUR

Euronext Paris CAC 40 PR EUR

MSCI ACWI Ex USA NR USD

­5.00 1.83 4.17 ­6.97 4.55 3.35 11.06

­2.87 2.66 5.02 ­2.54 9.15 4.99 8.83

­6.78 ­0.63 4.07 ­3.53 4.95 2.87 10.08

­5.37 ­2.29 2.30 ­6.26 6.72 1.31 7.15

World Index (ZAR)

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

MSCI ACWI NR USD ­4.48 1.95 6.46 13.46 6.29 12.14 10.39

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

MSCI ACWI NR USD ­5.93 ­1.53 1.40 ­1.29 9.07 5.22 9.08

World Index (USD)

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

2019/0592.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

100.0

102.0

FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P 500 TR USD

FTSE 100 TR GBP

Global Indices ­ Performance

Global Indices ­ Cumula�ve Performance YTD

1 M YTD­8.00

­6.00

­4.00

­2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

­4.84

7.09

­6.55

19.15

1.71 1.85

­6.35

10.74

­2.87

8.83

FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P GSCI Gold TR

S&P 500 TR USD FTSE 100 TR GBP

Re

turn

JSE Losers ­ 1 month

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

Return

Steinhoff Interna�onal Holdings NV

Massmart Holdings Ltd

Brait SA

Omnia Holdings Limited

Blue Label Telecoms Limited

Sasol, Ltd.

­34.63

­28.52

­27.26

­23.97

­23.17

­22.74

JSE Losers ­ YTD

Time Period: 2019/01/01 to 2019/05/31

Return

The Tongaat­Hule� Group Limited

Eoh Holdings Limited

Omnia Holdings Limited

Montauk Holdings Ltd

Brait SA

Massmart Holdings Ltd

­70.07

­66.26

­47.20

­45.75

­44.23

­33.78

May 2019 Page 1

Page 3: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · Mr Price Group Ltd Discovery Holdings Ltd Clicks Group Limited Anglo American Pla num Ltd Woolworths Group Limited Gold Fields Ltd Tiger Brands Limited Psg Group

JSE Top 40 ­ Holdings

Market Cap (mil) 1 M 1 Y 3 Yr YTD

Naspers Ltd

BHP Group PLC

Richemont Securi�es Ag ADR

Anglo American PLC

Sasol, Ltd.

Standard Bank Group Ltd.

Firstrand Limited

Mtn Group Limited

Bri�sh American Tobacco PLC

Sanlam Limited

Mondi PLC

Absa Group Ltd

Old Mutual Ltd Ordinary Shares

Nedbank Group, Ltd.

BidCorp Ltd

Remgro Ltd

AngloGold Ashan� Limited

Shoprite Holdings Limited

Capitec Bank Holdings Limited

Vodacom Group Ltd.

Growthpoint Proper�es Ltd.

Bidvest Group

Rmb Holdings Limited

Investec PLC

Redefine Proper�es Ltd.

Mul�Choice Group Ltd ADR

Mr Price Group Ltd

Discovery Holdings Ltd

Clicks Group Limited

Anglo American Pla�num Ltd

Woolworths Group Limited

Gold Fields Ltd

Tiger Brands Limited

Psg Group Limited

NEPI Rockcastle PLC

Mondi Limited

Foschini Group Limited

Sappi, Ltd.

The Spar Group Limited

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings PLC

1 456 813.59 ­10.38 12.60 13.96 17.58

101 468.71 ­1.37 13.09 36.02 15.44

680 849.00 1.53 ­6.22 7.15 13.64

30 848.52 ­4.36 9.71 50.81 10.65

220 633.06 ­22.74 ­16.85 ­5.15 ­12.36

315 858.76 ­0.13 0.51 22.03 14.17

389 444.12 ­1.49 16.23 20.72 4.16

193 300.50 ­0.71 ­5.99 ­0.23 18.98

64 432.63 ­7.69 ­23.57 ­7.94 12.43

170 129.59 ­0.44 4.25 10.89 ­0.65

6 514.85 ­2.41 ­18.32 12.12 3.28

145 958.64 2.89 11.39 11.28 8.27

102 422.81 ­8.48 — — ­2.86

121 365.82 ­1.50 0.95 19.37 ­1.99

103 598.07 0.74 22.17 1.93 16.01

105 686.89 ­4.63 ­8.18 ­6.18 ­3.82

104 868.14 12.98 81.17 ­2.02 7.64

88 110.66 ­0.20 ­24.66 4.17 ­8.72

150 178.65 ­1.31 52.86 31.85 19.00

204 213.39 3.02 ­11.50 ­4.50 ­10.00

71 680.00 ­2.77 ­3.23 8.76 8.36

65 024.56 ­4.61 5.41 21.10 1.48

119 966.54 ­1.33 18.38 20.47 6.65

3 520.79 ­4.93 ­12.60 4.21 4.53

45 740.07 ­2.92 ­8.30 2.80 ­1.12

4 109.65 ­6.77 — — —

50 683.45 ­8.99 ­18.56 5.73 ­19.91

98 345.55 ­3.70 ­8.61 6.36 ­12.55

51 732.78 ­2.55 ­3.72 23.00 1.04

221 460.11 1.50 121.44 28.62 37.62

42 527.53 ­4.11 ­17.77 ­13.42 ­15.28

63 548.23 21.30 45.73 16.18 33.04

40 223.26 ­11.46 ­25.15 ­7.74 ­9.54

52 581.66 ­7.16 13.70 10.81 0.53

76 159.06 3.21 6.28 ­7.61 12.61

37 386.90 ­4.99 ­11.16 4.10 ­0.43

42 703.83 ­4.69 ­0.35 12.23 7.92

59 034.91 ­19.18 ­30.85 ­6.02 ­29.51

36 592.04 ­1.29 3.13 1.60 ­7.72

45 932.88 ­4.82 ­59.56 ­30.86 ­27.35

JSE Top 40 ­ Return per annum

2014 2014 2015 2016 YTD­10.0

­5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

9.27.5

­1.6

23.1

28.0

FTSE/JSE Top 40 TR ZAR

Re

turn

South African Headlines

The SA Produc�on Managers Index (PMI) rose back into expansionary mode – but only just. Where any index level above 50

represents growth, and below 50 contrac�on, the index rose to a level of 50.3 in April. A lot of this had to do with the

expecta�on that economic momentum would pick up a�er the elec�on (the PMI reading was released two days prior to

Elec�on Day).

The BER consumer confidence index �cked higher for 2019’s second quarter. But South African consumers remain under

pressure — clear from several indicators: Total Vehicle Sales dropped by ­5.7% year­on­year in May, its fi�h consecu�ve

decline proving that debt­ridden and cash­strapped consumers are wary of taking on chunky investments/expenditure.

South African equi�es slipped in May, effec�vely cu�ng the year­to­date performance in half. The SWIX lost 5.64%, with the

year­to­date return for May now at 5.74%. The local bourse managed to marginally outperform the MSCI World and fared

substan�ally be�er than its Emerging Market peers. All major sectors of the index were lower, with industrials showing the

biggest loss (­5.95%). Naspers dipped by nearly 9%, dragging on the index. Bri�sh American Tobacco also slumped further,

hi�ng a three­month low at month­end. Despite some ji�ers a�er the suspension of its CEO Peter Moyo, and a consequent

dip in Old Mutual Limited share prices, financials outperformed their peers, yielding ­2.31% for the month. With ra�ngs

agencies leaving South Africa’s status unchanged for the �me being, analysts believe that the commitment shown by the

country’s new leadership will be key to unlocking foreign investment and boos�ng local demand.

MRP

South African budget retailer Mr Price Group has closed its Australian test stores due to low returns, it said on Friday,

underscoring the costs of expanding into new foreign markets, where retailers are figh�ng for market share. Mr Price,

known for its no­frills clothing and furniture stores, has been tes�ng out three stores in Australia, one MRP apparel and two

MRP Home, since late 2015 to see whether there is “a proven profitable business case for expansion”. But in April the board

approved the withdrawal of financial support to the Australia opera�ons and as a result the MRP Retail Australia (Pty) Ltd

directors put the company into administra�on on May 2, the firm said in its results statement. The Australian stores ceased

trading at the end of April. Chief Execu�ve Officer Mark Blair, who took the helm in January, said the business did not have

the scale and prices to cover opera�ng margins. Unlike other retailers, Mr Price has taken a cau�ous outlook on

nterna�onal expansion outside Africa as organic growth beyond Africa has proven challenging and distrac�ng.

“To build a brand in a foreign market is a very long road and you got to have some deep pockets,” he told analysts at the

results presenta�on, adding that the firm’s biggest and significant opportuni�es are in its home market, where it knows the

customer and compe��on. “We need to just stress that we’re in no rush to buy something interna�onally. We don’t feel the

pressure.” Having said that, the group with more than 1 300 stores across Africa, is undertaking a research phase from June,

to evaluate iden�fied opportuni�es in exis�ng markets and iden�fy a�rac�ve interna�onal markets, Blair said. The most

likely approach will include partnerships with exis�ng successful businesses, which will be funded from the balance sheet,

he added. Mr Price saw total revenue in the year ended March 30 grow 5.8%, with retail sales up by 4.4% to R20.9 billion,

exceeding R20 billion for the first �me, Blair said. While comparable store sales rose 1.6% in a tough retail environment.

Retailers in South Africa are struggling to boost sales growth as an increase in value­added tax, unemployment, and higher

fuel costs as well as u�lity prices have reduced consumers’ spending power. That has created a low growth environment for

retailers compe�ng for market share, resul�ng in strong promo�onal ac�vity. Despite this, both the apparel and homeware

businesses outperformed the market and gained market share on an annual basis in the first half. The apparel business,

which comprises Mr Price, Miladys and Mr Price Sport, saw retail sales and other income (RSOI) rise by 3.8%, while the

home segment, which includes Sheet Street and Mr Price Home, increased RSOI by 5.9% to R5.3 billion. Its diluted headline

earnings per share (Heps) rose to R1.142 cents from R1.75 cents in the year­ago period.

Tongaat Hulle�

South African sugar producer Tongaat Hule�’s said on Friday its 2018 results could face a poten�al hit of up to R4.5 billion

($306.38 million) following a review of its accoun�ng prac�ces. Tongaat, which has opera�ons in South Africa, Mozambique

and Zimbabwe, said in March that newly appointed CEO Gavin Hudson was conduc�ng the review and that it had revealed

past accoun�ng prac�ces that might require remedial ac�on. On Friday, Tongaat said it es�mated areduc�on in the amount

reflected in the company’s equity as at April 1, 2018 to be between R3.5 billion and R4.5 billion. The company also said the

impact was s�ll being determined. Tongaat said its financial results for 2019 would include restated prior financial

informa�on and would be delayed and only released by October 2019. Tongaat’s shares were nearly 9% lower by 1310 GMT.

Tongaat, whose net debt stood at R7.754 billion as of September 30, 2018, said in February it had entered discussions with

its lenders. The company appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers in March to review its accoun�ng prac�ces.

Stock Informa�on

1 M YTD­8.00

­6.00

­4.00

­2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

­5.09

7.64

­3.24

3.11

­5.84

7.39

­4.05

6.60

­3.61

7.05

FTSE/JSE Top 40 TR ZAR (ASISA) South African EQ Financial (ASISA) South African EQ Industrial

(ASISA) South African EQ Resources Fairtree Select Equity

Re

turn

Local Indices ­ Performance

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

2019/05

92.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

100.0

102.0

FTSE/JSE Top 40 TR ZAR 94.9

JSE Top 40 Index

May 2019 Page 2

Page 4: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · Mr Price Group Ltd Discovery Holdings Ltd Clicks Group Limited Anglo American Pla num Ltd Woolworths Group Limited Gold Fields Ltd Tiger Brands Limited Psg Group

The single largest catalyst was Donald Trump’s tweet on 5 May that the US would proceed to impose

tariffs on certain Chinese imports, despite only days before having led investors to believe that “a ll was

well” with regard to the US China trade discussions and that an agreement was imminent. The escala�on

of trade tensions toward month­end saw US stocks plummet to their lowest point this year: The S&P500

closed the month 6.3% lower. US companies have felt the impact of the slowdown in global growth,

subdued infla�on data and higher input costs. US corporate earnings season concluded with no year ­on­

year earnings growth. Trade rhetoric between the US and China has taken a sharper tone: President

Donald Trump indicated he was “nowhere near” making a deal, and his Vice President, Mike Pence,

alluded to being able to “more than double tariffs on China if needed”.

Infla�on remained rela�vely subdued; consumer prices rose 2.0% in April, up marginally from March’s

1.9%, driven largely by higher energy prices. The core infla�on rate, which excludes vola�le food and

energy prices, rose to 2.1%, from March’s 2.0%. Moving one month forward, infla�on eased a bit in May.

Headline infla�on declined from 2.0% to 1.8% in May, while core infla�on fell from 2.1% to 2.0%.

Forecast are that US GDP would be some 0.7% points lower in 2020. President Trump also announced

that Mexican goods would be subject to a 5% tariff, unless the flow of unauthorised migrants across the

border was addressed. Automakers were par�cularly hard­hit, given the importance of cross­border

chains in the industry. Analysts es�mate that the price tag of a 5% tariff on USD 346 billion of Mexican

imports to the US could generate roughly USD 17 bn.

American Headlines S&P 500

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

2019/05

93.0

94.0

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

99.0

100.0

101.0

S&P 500 TR USD 93.6

NASDAQ

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

2019/05

92.0

93.0

94.0

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

99.0

100.0

101.0

NASDAQ Composite TR USD 92.2

DJ INDUSTRIAL AVE

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

2019/05

93.0

94.0

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

99.0

100.0

101.0

DJ Industrial Average TR USD 93.7

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

DJ Industrial Average TR USD

S&P 500 TR USD

NASDAQ Composite TR USD

­6.32 ­3.66 ­1.70 4.05 14.45 10.88 7.54

­6.35 ­0.67 0.74 3.78 11.72 9.66 10.74

­7.79 ­0.77 2.25 1.23 15.90 13.22 12.85

American Indices

Asian Indices

European Indices

European equi�es gave up some of their year­to­date gains, amidst ongoing Brexit uncertainty, and

against the backdrop of key European Parliament elec�ons and a ratche�ng up of trade tension. The

STOXX All Europe closed 4.43% lower. The Italian bourse was the hardest hit, with the Milano Indice

Borsa giving up just over 9%. Investors reacted nega�vely to the Italian elec�on results, which saw a

victory for far­right na�onalists. The German economy grew at a quarter­on­quarter rate of 0.4% during

Q1, up from the 0.0% during Q4 last year and be�er than Q3’s ­0.2%. Q1 growth was driven by strong

machinery and construc�on investment, as well as private consump�on. Forecasts are for the German

economy to grow by 0.8% during 2019. The growth in Germany helped li� the economic growth rate over

the same period in the Eurozone bloc to 0.4% quarter­on­quarter, bringing the annual growth rate to

1.2%. The April reading of annual headline infla�on in the Eurozone came in at 1.7%, driven by increases

in energy, services and food, and alcohol and tobacco prices. The IHS Markit Eurozone Purchasing

Managers’ Index dipped to 47.7, declining for the fourth consecu�ve month and, cri�cally, giving a signal

of a broader economy in contrac�on. New export orders, perhaps unsurprisingly, given the trade­�t­for­

tat, dipped sharply. On the posi�ve side, consumers, though not op�mis�c, have tempered their nega�ve

view: The Consumer Confidence Index for the European Union has gone up by 1.1 points, reaching ­6.2

points. German economic growth appears to be stable and forecasts for both the country and the

Eurozone show GDP growth of 0.4% for the first quarter. UK equi�es could not buck the trend, but

significantly outperformed Developed Market peers. The FTSE100 closed 2.87% lower. Bri�sh poli�cs

remained turbulent: having secured an extension of Ar�cle 50 un�l October 2019, beleaguered Prime

Minister Theresa May resigned, and was due to step down on 7 June. This has set the stage for a

leadership ba�le in the Conserva�ve Party and ul�mately for the posi�on of Prime Minister.

European Headlines FTSE 100

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

2019/0596.3

97.0

97.8

98.5

99.3

100.0

FTSE 100 TR GBP 97.1

DAX

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

2019/0594.0

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

99.0

100.0

101.0

FSE DAX TR EUR 95.0

CAC 40

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

2019/0592.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

100.0

102.0

Euronext Paris CAC 40 PR EUR 93.2

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

FTSE 100 TR GBP

FSE DAX TR EUR

Euronext Paris CAC 40 PR EUR

MSCI ACWI Ex USA NR USD

­2.87 2.66 5.02 ­2.54 9.15 4.99 8.83

­5.00 1.83 4.17 ­6.97 4.55 3.35 11.06

­6.78 ­0.63 4.07 ­3.53 4.95 2.87 10.08

­5.37 ­2.29 2.30 ­6.26 6.72 1.31 7.15

Asian Headlines

Global markets slumped, against a backdrop of tougher trade talk and rising geopoli�cal risks. The MSCI

World closed 5.77% in the red. Emerging markets underperformed developed peers, as the MSCI EM

closed 7.26% lower, led by substan�al losses in China (the MSCI China lost 13.09%). The monthly data

from China was disappoin�ng: industrial produc�on rose at an annual rate of 5.4%, below the 6.5%

expected rate, retail sales rose 7.2% versus the 8.6% expected and March’s rate of 8.7%, and fixed asset

investment rose 6.1% versus expecta�ons of a 6.4% rate of increase. Infla�on rose to a 15­month high on

the back of higher pork prices as a result of the outbreak of African swine flu. Infla�on rose at an annual

rate of 2.7% in May, up from 2.5% the month before. Pork prices posted an annual increase of 18.0%

a�er more than 1m pigs were slaughtered.

Trade rhetoric between the US and China has taken a sharper tone: President Donald Trump indicated he

was “nowhere near” making a deal, and his Vice President, Mike Pence, alluded to being able to “more

than double tariffs on China if needed”. Simultaneously, China announced that it would be crea�ng an

“unreliable en��es list” that would have details of companies and individuals restricted from doing

business with Chinese firms. The country had also put in place a plan to stop exports of rare earth metals

to the US. Nearly 80% of the world’s rare earth metals are produced in China, and they form key

components of many products (especially in advanced electronics).

NIKKEI

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

2019/0592.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

100.0

102.0

Nikkei 225 Average TR JPY 92.6

HANG SENG

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

2019/0590.0

92.5

95.0

97.5

100.0

102.5

Hang Seng HSI TR HKD 91.6

SHANGAI

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

2019/0592.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

100.0

102.0

DJ Shanghai PR CNY 93.5

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

Nikkei 225 Average TR JPY

Hang Seng HSI TR HKD

DJ Shanghai PR CNY

­5.13 ­1.45 ­4.50 ­2.76 10.47 9.65 8.91

­8.33 ­4.13 4.49 ­7.04 13.46 7.30 8.07

­7.74 ­3.76 12.12 ­4.16 0.46 8.94 16.31

May 2019 Page 3

Page 5: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · Mr Price Group Ltd Discovery Holdings Ltd Clicks Group Limited Anglo American Pla num Ltd Woolworths Group Limited Gold Fields Ltd Tiger Brands Limited Psg Group

Commodity Headlines

The overall GSCI commodity index closed lower, as energy prices saw a reversal in the previous

months’ trend. Commodity prices tumbled as investor concern grew about the slowing global

economy. The copper price fell 9.3% and the oil price slumped by nearly 14% during the month

on higher than expected US inventories, and heightened concerns around global growth.

Counterac�ng supply and demand factors will likely contribute to oil­price vola�lity in the

coming months. The upward pressure from �ghter supply, as OPEC cuts take effect, exports from

Iran and Venezuela leave the pool and geopoli�cal tension escalates in the Middle East, may yet

outpace the downward pressure of the lack of demand. Gold made modest gains, driven by

safe­haven demand. Pla�num Group Metals closed lower, with the pla�num price losing just

over 13% during the month.

Commodi�es

May 2019

President Donald Trump during May declared a na�onal emergency over threats against

American technology, the White House said.

The move, done via execu�ve order, authorized the Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, in

consulta�on with other top officials, to block transac�ons that involve informa�on or

communica�ons technology that “poses an unacceptable risk to the na�onal security of the

United States.”

Following the order, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the addi�on of Huawei

Technologies and its affiliates to the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) En�ty List, making it

more difficult for the Chinese telecom giant to conduct business with U.S. companies.

The addi�on means that U.S. companies cannot sell or transfer technology to Huawei without a

license issued by the BIS. That could make it harder for Huawei to do business, as it depends on

some U.S. suppliers for parts.

President Donald Trump backed the decision, which will “prevent American technology from

being used by foreign owned en��es in ways that poten�ally undermine U.S. na�onal security

or foreign policy interests,” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a statement.

In a statement to CNBC, Huawei said: “Restric�ng Huawei from doing business in the US will not

make the US more secure or stronger; instead, this will only serve to limit the US to inferior yet

more expensive alterna�ves, leaving the US lagging behind in 5G deployment, and eventually

harming the interests of US companies and consumers.”

The Chinese tech company also said: “We are ready and willing to engage with the US

government and come up with effec�ve measures to ensure product security.” The

announcement has been under discussion for a year. It comes as the U.S. and China remain

locked in a trade dispute and could escalate tensions between the world’s two largest

economies. The order had been opposed by small rural carriers, who con�nued to rely on

Huawei equipment even a�er it was largely dropped by the larger telecommunica�ons

companies.

Something Interes�ng

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

2019/05

87.5

90.0

92.5

95.0

97.5

100.0

102.5

S&P GSCI Gold TR 101.7 Oil Price Brent Crude PR 88.6

Currency Headlines

In currencies, the US dollar index showed a modest up�ck of 30 bps. Emerging markets were

broadly weaker, though performance was mixed. With the US introducing fresh tariffs on 10

May, the Chinese renminbi declined by 2.5% against the USD. Fresh restric�ons on the flow of

goods from Mexico, and the threat of more tariffs to come, saw the Mexican Peso dip by nearly

3%. The global bond market was firm, as investors changed their view that most central banks,

including the US Federal Reserve, would be pressurized into cu�ng interest rates rather than

hiking them. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond index rose 1.4%, bringing its year­to­date

return to 3.3%. The South African Rand has remained vola�le, although the elec�on outcome

was regarded as posi�ve, and closed 1.15% lower against the USD. Sterling was one of the worst

performing developed market currencies, hamstrung by Bri�sh poli�cs.

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

2019/0514.2

14.4

14.6

14.8

Currency EUR 14.6

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

2019/05

16.3

16.5

16.7

16.9

17.1

17.3

Currency GBP 16.6

GBP/ZAR

Time Period: 2019/05/01 to 2019/05/31

2019/0513.5

13.7

13.9

14.1

14.3

Currency USD 13.9

USD/ZAR

Page 4

EUR/ZAR

Page 6: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · Mr Price Group Ltd Discovery Holdings Ltd Clicks Group Limited Anglo American Pla num Ltd Woolworths Group Limited Gold Fields Ltd Tiger Brands Limited Psg Group

Monthly Returns ­ FTSE/JSE All share Monthly Returns ­ FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2.81 3.41 1.56 4.23 ­4.84

0.10 ­1.97 ­4.18 5.37 ­3.48 2.78 ­0.25 2.34 ­4.17 ­5.76 ­3.17 4.25

4.31 ­3.11 2.68 3.64 ­0.42 ­3.49 7.03 2.65 ­0.87 6.26 1.46 ­0.34

­2.99 0.59 6.44 1.70 1.84 ­3.02 1.16 0.26 ­0.93 ­2.49 ­0.55 0.97

3.08 4.07 ­1.33 4.70 ­3.95 ­0.76 0.52 ­3.55 0.95 7.61 ­3.86 ­1.72

­2.36 4.88 1.83 2.65 1.60 2.77 0.93 ­0.46 ­2.58 1.01 0.54 ­0.19

­8.53

20.95

2.63

5.13

10.88

7.09

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

9.18 ­5.70 ­1.46 3.17 ­0.87

­9.91 ­9.90 ­0.96 7.68 ­5.92 ­3.45 ­0.50 2.15 ­2.60 ­1.69 ­1.29 ­1.06

1.63 ­0.36 0.11 0.51 0.11 0.29 3.70 0.76 1.19 1.99 1.92 4.21

­2.98 3.65 9.48 1.95 ­3.47 1.17 3.26 ­4.89 1.09 0.50 ­3.34 4.24

7.38 3.16 2.64 0.04 ­5.93 ­0.36 5.14 0.22 0.82 2.08 ­0.50 ­6.12

­7.13 4.66 4.76 2.32 ­1.26 3.37 1.91 2.96 2.18 6.84 2.83 1.11

­25.26

17.15

10.20

7.99

26.64

3.76

Monthly Returns ­ MSCI World (ZAR) Monthly Returns ­ MSCI World (USD)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

­0.47 8.79 3.86 2.77 ­4.48

1.32 ­4.76 ­1.77 6.37 1.58 7.64 ­1.55 12.73 ­2.99 ­3.47 ­4.72 ­3.57

1.27 ­0.25 3.77 1.37 0.70 ­0.18 3.51 ­1.11 5.89 6.91 ­1.66 ­7.79

­3.58 ­1.41 0.08 ­2.16 11.05 ­7.45 ­1.26 6.50 ­5.97 ­3.62 4.82 ­0.40

­1.03 5.77 2.36 1.54 1.64 ­2.60 4.85 ­2.08 0.47 7.69 3.58 5.52

2.37 0.82 ­1.65 1.08 2.64 2.41 ­0.49 1.44 2.79 ­1.54 1.67 2.71

5.26

12.23

­4.81

30.78

15.05

10.39

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

7.90 2.67 1.26 3.38 ­5.93

5.64 ­4.20 ­2.14 0.95 0.12 ­0.54 3.02 0.79 0.44 ­7.49 1.46 ­7.04

2.73 2.81 1.22 1.56 2.21 0.45 2.79 0.38 1.93 2.08 1.94 1.61

­6.03 ­0.69 7.41 1.48 0.13 ­0.61 4.31 0.34 0.61 ­1.70 0.76 2.16

­1.56 5.57 ­1.55 2.90 ­0.13 ­2.35 0.87 ­6.86 ­3.62 7.85 ­0.83 ­1.80

­4.00 4.83 0.44 0.95 2.13 1.88 ­1.21 2.21 ­3.24 0.70 1.67 ­1.93

­9.41

23.97

7.86

­2.36

4.16

9.08

Beassa ALBI SA CPI Synthe�c (Headline)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2.90 ­0.44 1.33 0.75 0.64

1.86 3.93 2.07 ­0.70 ­1.95 ­1.17 2.42 ­1.87 0.30 ­1.71 3.87 0.64

1.36 0.71 0.40 1.42 1.03 ­0.95 1.50 1.03 1.11 ­2.30 ­0.97 5.66

4.57 ­0.72 2.63 1.85 ­1.47 4.04 2.19 ­1.72 2.98 0.64 ­1.83 1.54

6.47 ­2.77 ­0.51 ­0.49 ­0.76 ­0.15 1.04 0.14 ­0.07 1.30 ­1.02 ­6.67

­3.24 2.44 1.79 0.32 1.14 0.97 1.02 2.80 ­1.57 3.41 2.36 ­1.51

7.69

10.24

15.42

­3.93

10.15

5.26

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

­0.18 ­0.18 0.82 0.82 0.63

0.48 0.29 0.76 0.38 0.75 0.19 0.37 0.84 ­0.09 0.46 0.46 0.18

0.40 0.60 1.09 0.59 0.10 0.29 0.19 0.29 0.10 0.48 0.29 0.10

0.32 0.75 1.38 0.73 0.83 0.21 0.51 0.82 ­0.10 0.20 0.51 0.30

­0.22 ­0.11 0.56 1.45 0.88 0.22 0.44 1.09 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.11

0.24 0.71 1.06 1.40 0.46 0.11 0.34 0.80 0.34 0.00 0.22 0.00

5.18

4.62

6.64

4.71

5.81

1.92

STeFI FTSE/JSE Ind/Industrials

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

0.60 0.55 0.61 0.59 0.61

0.60 0.54 0.60 0.58 0.59 0.57 0.59 0.59 0.57 0.59 0.58 0.60

0.63 0.57 0.63 0.61 0.63 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.59 0.61 0.58 0.60

0.56 0.53 0.58 0.58 0.61 0.59 0.62 0.62 0.60 0.63 0.61 0.63

0.52 0.48 0.53 0.51 0.53 0.51 0.53 0.54 0.52 0.54 0.52 0.55

0.44 0.41 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.47 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.51 0.50 0.52

7.25

7.54

7.39

6.47

5.91

3.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

3.93 ­2.34 ­5.32 6.33 ­3.88

5.76 ­2.27 ­4.90 3.55 ­10.20 ­2.52 0.45 2.52 ­6.42 ­2.33 2.78 ­2.03

­2.25 0.73 ­2.12 2.82 ­0.04 ­3.73 1.91 4.57 ­2.37 3.64 4.13 7.15

1.79 ­2.02 7.84 1.98 0.03 2.96 5.68 ­2.08 ­1.22 0.03 ­0.83 6.12

3.14 ­0.63 ­1.70 0.53 ­4.46 0.13 ­0.31 ­0.69 ­2.07 6.81 ­5.03 ­5.62

­6.73 0.34 5.55 4.26 1.55 ­0.13 1.35 1.08 ­4.19 5.40 ­1.16 0.17

­15.56

14.73

21.55

­10.07

6.99

­1.77

FTSE/JSE Financial 15 FTSE/JSE SA Resources

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

6.75 ­2.06 ­4.78 7.61 ­1.91

­2.31 5.11 ­3.66 3.01 ­6.71 ­2.84 6.56 ­0.26 ­1.96 ­4.07 2.59 1.24

­0.99 ­0.10 ­0.87 4.09 ­1.63 ­2.07 5.58 2.93 ­2.38 2.58 5.89 9.77

­3.45 ­2.87 12.41 ­1.26 ­2.18 ­2.80 2.85 ­2.88 1.52 ­1.37 1.34 3.23

4.57 3.39 2.26 4.93 ­6.76 ­0.54 3.46 ­4.04 ­2.19 7.31 ­3.96 ­6.13

­7.13 8.38 6.38 3.84 1.94 2.70 0.56 0.70 ­1.75 6.98 2.98 0.18

­4.09

24.38

3.55

1.06

27.83

5.10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

3.25 9.06 4.66 ­2.05 ­5.09

3.18 ­4.82 ­2.08 8.55 4.01 5.96 ­1.40 5.59 1.05 ­3.96 ­11.50 12.33

10.74 ­9.91 2.91 0.01 ­4.11 ­3.08 13.32 5.10 ­1.07 7.06 ­1.60 ­0.45

­2.72 15.57 5.08 13.45 ­3.81 ­2.47 4.33 ­0.85 4.48 ­3.41 6.11 ­3.60

1.16 8.38 ­8.94 7.96 ­5.19 ­7.07 ­8.45 ­0.38 ­9.96 5.93 ­20.66 ­3.87

5.92 4.44 ­0.05 3.97 ­4.32 3.45 4.75 ­5.44 ­6.26 ­9.90 ­6.06 ­4.66

15.55

17.90

34.24

­36.99

­14.74

9.56

Page 5May 2019

Page 7: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · Mr Price Group Ltd Discovery Holdings Ltd Clicks Group Limited Anglo American Pla num Ltd Woolworths Group Limited Gold Fields Ltd Tiger Brands Limited Psg Group

Cau�ous Mul�-Managed Por�olioThe Fairtree Cau�ous Mul� Managed Por�olio was up ­1.24% for the month of May. The main detractor being the local equity market being down ­4.84%. The Fairtree Global Real Estate Prescient fund contributed nicely and

ended the month up +2.87%. The Fairtree Worldwide Mul� Strategy Flexible Prescient fund being the core of the por�olio saw some detrac�on over the last month, but s�ll managed to protect on the total market pull back.

The por�olio has a large holding in local bonds at 37.67% with local equi�es coming in second at 17.75%. We also rebalanced the por�olio during the month, we increased the core of the por�olio, with the introduc�on of the

Fairtree Albi Plus Prescient fund. The core of the por�olio being Fairtree Worldwide Mul� Strategy Flexible fund, saw some downside protec�on form market pullback, ending the month down ­2.66%.

High Yield IncomeThe diversified skills of the different asset managers and house views has served the por�olio well thus far. As the income por�olios are a game of small margins and less vola�lity, every few basis points really does make a

difference. The last month the por�olio was up by +0.57% and stands at +4.29% for the year. The biggest contributors for the month was the Stanlib Income fund and the Corona�on Strategic Income funds, up +0.71% and

+0.52% respec�vely. All Bond Index was up +0.64% for the month and Stands at +5.26% for the year to date. The por�olio is �cking along nicely and has been delivering, as it out performed for any rolling 12 month period.

Commentary

Fairtree Stable Por�ollio (PPS)

May 2019

Fairtree Cau�ous Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

Page 6

Fairtree High Yield Income (Investec & Glacier) Fairtree Cau�ous Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib, Glacier,

Momentum & PPS)

Time Period: 2017/06/01 to 2019/05/31

1 2 3 4 5 6

1.00

0.86 1.00

0.78 0.94 1.00

0.78 0.95 0.95 1.00

0.89 0.96 0.96 0.96 1.00

0.07 ­0.16 ­0.14 ­0.24 ­0.09 1.00

1 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR

2 Fairtree Cau�ous Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib, Glacier, Momentum & PPS)

3 Fairtree Stable Por�olio (PPS)

4 Fairtree Cau�ous Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

5 (ASISA) South African MA Low Equity

6 Fairtree High Yield Income Por�olio

Posi�vely Correlated Nega�vely Correlated

Correla�on Matrix

Wrap / House View 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

Fairtree Cau�ous Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib, Glacier, Momentum & PPS)

Fairtree Stable Por�olio (PPS)

Fairtree Cau�ous Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

(ASISA) South African MA Low Equity

Fairtree High Yield Income Por�olio

­1.24 1.57 6.62 9.29 6.15 8.09 6.10

­1.02 1.98 7.19 10.56 6.32 8.14 6.70

­2.05 0.43 3.22 4.81 4.84 7.39 4.06

­1.12 1.51 5.04 5.76 4.47 5.96 4.55

0.57 2.16 5.17 8.89 9.25 8.99 4.29

Trailing Returns

REGULATION 28 SOLUTIONS: CAUTIOUS PORTFOLIOS

Page 8: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · Mr Price Group Ltd Discovery Holdings Ltd Clicks Group Limited Anglo American Pla num Ltd Woolworths Group Limited Gold Fields Ltd Tiger Brands Limited Psg Group

Time Period: 2017/06/01 to 2019/05/31

1 2 3 4 5 6

1.00

0.91 1.00

0.87 0.96 1.00

0.88 0.97 0.95 1.00

0.86 0.95 0.94 0.89 1.00

0.91 0.97 0.96 0.92 0.99 1.00

1 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR

2 Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib, Glacier, Momentum & PPS)

3 Fairtree Moderate Por�olio (PPS)

4 Fairtree Smart Beta Balanced Por�olio (Investec)

5 Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

6 (ASISA) South African MA Medium Equity

Posi�vely Correlated Nega�vely Correlated

Correla�on Matrix

Wrap / House View 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib, Glacier, Momentum & PPS)

Fairtree Moderate Por�olio (PPS)

Fairtree Smart Beta Balanced Por�olio (Investec)

Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

(ASISA) South African MA Medium Equity

­2.27 0.72 6.97 8.25 5.47 7.84 6.14

­2.19 1.22 7.86 9.57 7.04 8.57 6.77

­1.66 1.55 7.61 8.97 6.74 9.44 6.80

­3.67 ­0.32 3.83 2.77 2.68 6.27 4.22

­2.27 1.11 5.62 4.74 3.15 5.14 5.14

Trailing Returns

Balanced Mul�-Managed Por�olioThe Fairtree Balanced Mul� Managed Por�olio ended the month of May down ­2.27%. The por�olio was rebalanced during May and saw the introduc�on of the Fairtree Albi Plus Prescient fund as a

new alloca�on. With this, we up weighted the core of the por�olio being the Fairtree Worldwide Mul� Strategy Flexible Prescient fund. This allows for diversifica�on within the core at a greater

weigh�ng. With this there has been a slight increase in our local equity exposure by around 3.5% and a decrease in our offshore equity by around 4%. Our offshore property saw a slight increase, with

local property coming down slightly. The local equity market struggled and ended the month down ­4.84%, with the (ASISA) South African MA Medium Equity category being down ­2.27%. The best

performing fund during May was the Fairtree Global Real Estate Prescient fund at +2.87%.

Smart Beta Balanced The Fairtree Smart Beta Balanced Por�olio was down ­1.66% for the month of the month of May. The local market in the All Share Index was down ­4.84% for the past month. The driver for local equity

returns, the Fairtree Smart Beta Prescient fund gave back ­3.33% during the month of May. With the por�olio’s current total equity alloca�on being at 53.49%, of which 20.73% is offshore, we feel

comfortable with the por�olio’s return. The por�olio with the factor based investment philosophy being the main driver has done excep�onally well over the recent past and we are comfortable with

the philosophy going forward. The por�olio has served well in capital protec�on and with limited risk taken to generate the current performance. Against peer group and even the local market the

por�olio is doing more than it should.

Commentary

Fairtree Smart Beta Balanced Por�olio (Investec) Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib, Glacier,

Momentum & PPS)

Fairtree Moderate Por�olio (PPS) Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

May 2019 Page 7

REGULATION 28 SOLUTIONS: BALANCED PORTFOLIOS

Page 9: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · Mr Price Group Ltd Discovery Holdings Ltd Clicks Group Limited Anglo American Pla num Ltd Woolworths Group Limited Gold Fields Ltd Tiger Brands Limited Psg Group

Time Period: 2017/06/01 to 2019/05/31

1 2 3 4 5 6

1.00

0.93 1.00

0.91 0.96 1.00

0.89 0.94 0.88 1.00

0.86 0.94 0.96 0.82 1.00

0.93 0.96 0.98 0.88 0.98 1.00

1 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR

2 Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib, Glacier, Momentum & PPS)

3 Fairtree Balanced Por�olio (PPS)

4 Fairtree Smart Beta Growth (Investec)

5 Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

6 (ASISA) South African MA High Equity

Posi�vely Correlated Nega�vely Correlated

Correla�on Matrix

Wrap / House View 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Momentum)

Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib & Glacier)

Fairtree Balanced Por�olio (PPS)

Fairtree Smart Beta Growth (Investec)

Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

(ASISA) South African MA High Equity

­3.57 ­0.45 7.62 7.48 5.05 7.26 6.14

­2.86 0.35 7.96 8.23 4.98 7.53 6.51

­3.00 0.06 8.50 8.55 6.44 10.04 6.17

­2.42 1.18 8.44 8.03 6.24 9.65 7.02

­4.26 ­0.84 3.55 1.77 1.78 5.76 4.06

­3.25 0.57 5.56 3.45 2.45 4.81 5.01

Trailing Returns

Growth Mul�-Managed Por�olioThe Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio was down ­2.86% for the month of May. The por�olio stands at +6.51% for the year. We rebalanced the por�olio, up weigh�ng the Fairtree Select Equity

Prescient fund, allowing us to benefit from a concentrated stock view in the local equity market. We also up weighted the Fairtree Flexible Income Plus Prescient fund, to make sure we comply with

regula�on 28. In this we saw a slight decrease in our offshore equity exposure and a slight increase in our local bond exposure. The por�olio has stood its ground during the last few months and has

managed to keep tact with the local equity market at a lot less vola�lity. The core of the por�olio being the well diversified Fairtree Worldwide Mul� Strategy Flexible Prescient fund was down ­2.66%

for the month of May.

Smart Beta GrowthThe Fairtree Smart Beta Growth Por�olio was down ­2.42% for the month of May. The local equity through the All Share Index gave you ­4.84% for the past month while the local equity exposure

through the Fairtree Smart Beta Prescient Fund gave you ­3.33%. The por�olio has a current equity holding of 70.37% with 20.73% of that being offshore. The factor based investment style through the

Smart Beta funds, has served the por�olio well in naviga�ng a very low return profile the past year or three. The factor based philosophy works well in capital protec�on and reasonable par�cipa�on in

market upside. Against its peer groups the por�olio has performed significantly, with a strong outperformance over any period. With much s�ll on its way for the year locally we are slightly op�mis�c

about the poten�al outcome.

Commentary

Fairtree Smart Beta Growth Por�olio (Investec) Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib, Glacier,

Momentum & PPS)

Fairtree Balanced Por�olio (PPS)

May 2019

Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

Page 8

REGULATION 28 SOLUTIONS: GROWTH PORTFOLIOS

Page 10: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · Mr Price Group Ltd Discovery Holdings Ltd Clicks Group Limited Anglo American Pla num Ltd Woolworths Group Limited Gold Fields Ltd Tiger Brands Limited Psg Group

Time Period: 2017/06/01 to 2019/05/31

1 2 3 4

1.00

0.86 1.00

0.82 0.96 1.00

0.88 0.94 0.88 1.00

1 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR

2 Fairtree High Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Momentum & Glacier)

3 Fairtree High Growth Por�olio (PPS)

4 Fairtree Tax Free Savings Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec)

Posi�vely Correlated Nega�vely Correlated

Correla�on Matrix

Wrap / House View 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

Fairtree High Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Momentum & Glacier)

Fairtree High Growth Por�olio (PPS)

Fairtree Tax Free Savings Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec)

FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR

­3.09 0.63 7.81 7.01 4.94 8.66 7.53

­3.27 0.55 7.93 7.18 3.61 7.62 7.61

­2.90 1.21 9.32 8.64 4.48 7.58 8.20

­4.84 0.73 11.64 2.43 4.17 5.44 7.09

Trailing Returns

Commentary

High Growth

The Fairtree High Growth Wrap Por�olio was up ­3.09 % for the month of May. The local equity market struggled somewhat and gave back ­4.84% for the month of May. The

por�olio has been up weighted on the equity side, both local and offshore. The current equity exposure stands at 72.95%, with 34.99% being offshore. Looking at the year ahead we

are happy with the start and current market sen�ment, from many asset management houses. The combina�on of both ac�ve and factor based equity management has served the

por�olio well and we hope that it con�nues to do what it should. The por�olio is managed for long term growth and therefore we will always look to have an overweight equity

exposure.

TFSA

The Fairtree Tax Free Savings Mul� Managed Por�olio was down ­2.90% for the month of May. The Fairtree Smart Beta Prescient Fund gave you ­3.33% for the month of May, with

the local equity market giving you ­4.84%. The factor based investment philosophy has worked excep�onally well in the beginning stages of this this year and has outperformed the

market. The view in the future will always be an overweight offshore alloca�on to growth assets, mainly through foreign equi�es and foreign proper�es. The current largest asset

class holding is local equi�es at 54.04%. The por�olio has a strong alloca�on to growth asset classes in terms of equi�es and proper�es both local and offshore. The por�olio has

kept track with the recent bounce back of the local equity market and sits at +11.43% for the year to date.

Fairtree High Growth Por�olio (PPS) Fairtree High Growth MM Por�olio (Mom Glacier & Investec) Fairtree Tax­Free Savings MM Por�olio (Investec)

May 2019 Page 9

NON­REGULATION 28 SOLUTIONS: HIGH GROWTH PORTFOLIOS

Page 11: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · Mr Price Group Ltd Discovery Holdings Ltd Clicks Group Limited Anglo American Pla num Ltd Woolworths Group Limited Gold Fields Ltd Tiger Brands Limited Psg Group

The FTSE/JSE All Share Index (ALSI) decreased by 4.8% during May. FTSE/JSE Shareholder Weighted Index (SWIX) decreased by 5.6% and FTSE/JSE Capped Shareholder Weighted Index (Capped SWIX)

decreased by 4.8%. The Rand weakened by 1.9% during the month. Financials, Industrials and Resources decreased by 2.3%, 6.1% and 5.2% respec�vely.

Locally, hard economic data remained very weak. The Q1 GDP print came in at ­3,2% and together with infla�on running well below expecta�ons the nominal growth rate has slowed to 4.1% year on

year. The risk of a ra�ngs downgrade by Moody’s over the next 12 months have increased along with the weaker growth outlook for 2019 (now around 0,5%) and weaker debt metrics. We believe the

SARB will respond by cu�ng interest rates by at least 25bps over its next two mee�ngs. Infla�on expecta�ons have fallen and should soon run below 5%. Concerns around Eskom and credit risk

con�nue to weigh on long end bonds and has caused the yield curve to steepen. We expect to soon hear about a turnaround plan for Eskom. We expect growth to remain weak over the near term but

improve towards year end.

Global growth has slowed from 2018 levels. Geo­poli�cal uncertainty, Brexit and increased Trade tariffs are weighing on manufacturing output globally. The US Fed is now expected to cut rates during

2019. Although we are not expec�ng a sharp slow­down in global growth or an imminent recession, the risks of this happening has increased since the start of the year. Longer term we expect infla�on

pressures to increase with �ght labour markets in Developed Markets and China shu�ng down pollu�ng and un­economic manufacturing capacity.

The RMB por�olios have benefited from a hedge fund and long only diversifica�on. The last month the hedge funds managed to protect capital and deliver alterna�ve returns to that of the market

with the Fairtree Wild Fig Mul� Strategy SNN QIHF up +0.22% and the Fairtree Woodland Mul� Strategy SNN QIHF up +0.13%.

The long only funds that form part of most of the por�olios also delivered be�er than the market returns. One of our core funds the Fairtree Worldwide Mul� Strategy Flexible Prescient fund was down

­2.66%. Our hedge fund driven solu�ons were rela�vely flat the past month with the long only driven solu�ons keeping heads above the loss of the market. We are almost at the halfway mark for 2019

and we hope to see some posi�ve sen�ment coming through the market which can relate into some upside in performance for investors.

Commentary

Correla�on Matrix

Time Period: 2017/06/01 to 2019/05/31

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

1.00

0.73 1.00

0.40 0.66 1.00

0.57 0.88 0.80 1.00

0.88 0.83 0.72 0.74 1.00

0.57 0.85 0.30 0.59 0.58 1.00

0.66 0.90 0.85 0.95 0.84 0.57 1.00

0.92 0.80 0.47 0.65 0.93 0.62 0.75 1.00

0.64 0.85 0.85 0.91 0.85 0.55 0.96 0.74 1.00

0.58 0.82 0.94 0.90 0.82 0.48 0.96 0.65 0.95 1.00

0.87 0.91 0.43 0.68 0.86 0.87 0.73 0.92 0.72 0.63 1.00

0.81 0.92 0.41 0.69 0.81 0.92 0.72 0.87 0.70 0.62 0.99 1.00

0.88 0.90 0.44 0.68 0.89 0.84 0.74 0.94 0.72 0.63 1.00 0.98 1.00

1 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR

2 Fairtree Balanced Mul� Manager

3 Fairtree Capital Guarantee

4 Fairtree Cau�ous Mul� Manager

5 Fairtree Equity Index + Alpha

6 Fairtree Global

7 Fairtree Growth Mul� Manager

8 Fairtree Select Equity

9 Fairtree Empress Por�olio

10 Fairtree Juniper Por�olio

11 Fairtree Long­Only High Net Worth Growth

12 Fairtree Worldwide Equity

13 Fairtree Select Balanced Por�olio

Posi�vely Correlated Nega�vely Correlated

Fairtree Cau�ous Mul� Manager Fairtree Balanced Mul� Manager

Wrap / House View 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

Fairtree Balanced Mul� Manager

Fairtree Capital Guarantee

Fairtree Cau�ous Mul� Manager

Fairtree Equity Index + Alpha

Fairtree Global

Fairtree Growth Mul� Manager

Fairtree Select Equity

Fairtree Empress Por�olio

Fairtree Juniper Por�olio

Fairtree Long­Only High Net Worth Growth

Fairtree Worldwide Equity

Fairtree Select Balanced Por�olio

­3.87 ­1.48 13.36 11.02 3.12 4.79 6.94

­3.16 1.36 7.97 12.71 3.40 12.35 11.85

0.47 ­1.39 5.77 14.09 6.30 7.65 4.24

­1.03 ­0.51 5.85 13.43 5.16 8.41 5.08

­3.61 ­1.19 13.24 10.44 7.47 10.78 7.05

0.04 ­3.44 9.70 17.95 5.85 5.44

­3.30 0.05 10.16 9.29 5.38 10.27 8.31

­0.08 ­0.78 8.11 16.88 6.82 6.05

­2.51 0.41 9.52 10.42 6.84 10.56 7.29

0.83 ­0.76 6.17 15.37 7.50 8.06 4.61

­3.72 ­0.27 10.01 11.62 5.59 11.79 9.06

­0.46 ­2.38 8.57 19.44 4.38 7.17 6.06

Trailing Returns

May 2019 Page 10

NON­REGULATION 28 SOLUTIONS: RMB NOTE STRUCTURE

Page 12: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · Mr Price Group Ltd Discovery Holdings Ltd Clicks Group Limited Anglo American Pla num Ltd Woolworths Group Limited Gold Fields Ltd Tiger Brands Limited Psg Group

Fairtree Global Por�olio

Fairtree Equity Index plus Alpha

Fairtree Empress

Fairtree Capital Guarantee

Fairtree Long Only High Net Worth

May 2019

Fairtree Juniper

Page 11

Fairtree Worldwide Equity

Fairtree Select Balanced

NON­REGULATION 28 SOLUTIONS: RMB NOTE STRUCTURE ­ con�nued

Fairtree Select EquityFairtree Growth Mul� Manager

Page 13: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · Mr Price Group Ltd Discovery Holdings Ltd Clicks Group Limited Anglo American Pla num Ltd Woolworths Group Limited Gold Fields Ltd Tiger Brands Limited Psg Group

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