Monthly Market Detail - November 2016 Single Family Homes · 2016-12-21 · of the real estate industry in a market, and is of particular interest to real estate professionals, investors,

Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month.

Data released on Wednesday, December 21, 2016. Next data release is TBD.

60.2%

17 35.3%

Percent Change

Year-over-Year

-26.3%

26 -19.2%

Closed Sales

14

98 Days

31 12.9%

179 7.3%

7.5 25.3%

November 2016

Median Percent of Original

List Price Received

Median Time to Contract

157 Days

23

Median Time to Sale

New Pending Sales

New Listings

Month

21

Pending Inventory 35

Inventory (Active Listings) 192

Months Supply of Inventory 9.4

Summary Statistics

Closed Sales

Paid in Cash

91.3%

November 2016

$169,750Median Sale Price

Average Sale Price

Dollar Volume

November 2015Percent Change

Year-over-Year

5 5 0.0%

14 19 -26.3%

$134,000 26.7%

$3.4 Million $4.3 Million -21.1%

$243,626 $227,579 7.1%

95.4% -4.3%

113 Days 53 Days 113.2%

July 2016 19

June 2016 24

May 2016 29

November 2015 19

April 2016 21

March 2016 20

Economists' note : Closed Sales are one of the simplest—yet most

important—indicators for the residential real estate market. When

comparing Closed Sales across markets of different sizes, we

recommend comparing the percent changes in sales rather than the

number of sales. Closed Sales (and many other market metrics) are

affected by seasonal cycles, so actual trends are more accurately

represented by year-over-year changes (i.e. comparing a month's sales

to the amount of sales in the same month in the previous year), rather

than changes from one month to the next. 5.6%

February 2016 20

January 2016 19

17.6%

11.8%

-40.0%

-17.4%

-7.7%

-34.4%

-33.3%

3.6%

December 2015 12

October 2016 17 -15.0%

5.3%

-14.3%

September 2016 20

August 2016 30

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N

Monthly Market Detail - November 2016

Gulf CountySingle Family Homes

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Closed SalesThe number of sales transactions which closed during the month



Month Cash SalesPercent Change

Year-over-Year

November 2016 5 0.0%

October 2016 2 -60.0%

September 2016 3 -40.0%

August 2016 11 0.0%

Economists' note : Cash Sales can be a useful indicator of the extent to

which investors are participating in the market. Why? Investors are

far more likely to have the funds to purchase a home available up front,

whereas the typical homebuyer requires a mortgage or some other

form of financing. There are, of course, many possible exceptions, so

this statistic should be interpreted with care.

July 2016 5 66.7%

June 2016 5 -37.5%

May 2016 7 -22.2%

April 2016 6 -50.0%

March 2016 5 -64.3%

February 2016 6 0.0%

January 2016 9 -18.2%

December 2015 2 -60.0%

November 2015 5 -28.6%

MonthPercent of Closed

Sales Paid in Cash

Percent Change

Year-over-Year

November 2016 35.7% 35.7%

October 2016 11.8% -52.8%

September 2016 15.0% -43.0%

August 2016 36.7% 16.9%

Economists' note : This statistic is simply another way of viewing

Cash Sales. The remaining percentages of Closed Sales (i.e. those not

paid fully in cash) each month involved some sort of financing, such as

mortgages, owner/seller financing, assumed loans, etc.

July 2016 26.3% 102.3%

June 2016 20.8% -32.5%

May 2016 24.1% -24.9%

April 2016 28.6% -23.7%

March 2016 25.0% -46.5%

February 2016 30.0% -15.0%

January 2016 47.4% -26.7%

December 2015 16.7% -33.2%

November 2015 26.3% -32.4%



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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Cash SalesThe number of Closed Sales during the month in which buyers exclusively paid in cash

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cash Sales as a Percentage of Closed SalesThe percentage of Closed Sales during the month which were Cash Sales



Month Median Sale PricePercent Change

Year-over-Year

November 2016 $169,750 26.7%

April 2016 $152,000 -43.4%

October 2016 $169,900 -21.9%

September 2016 $179,000 2.3%

June 2016 $168,750 17.9%

May 2016 $182,500 -13.1%

August 2016 $178,200 -7.7%

July 2016 $180,000 29.5%

March 2016 $159,150 -28.1%

February 2016 $170,000 -1.2%

January 2016 $258,000 159.0%

December 2015 $148,200 -28.1%

November 2015 $134,000 -29.1%

Month Average Sale PricePercent Change

Year-over-Year

November 2016 $243,626 7.1%

October 2016 $285,379 4.1%

September 2016 $332,258 76.2%

August 2016 $323,544 14.5%

April 2016 $265,212 -30.1%

March 2016 $271,310 14.3%

-0.5%

June 2016 $257,995 48.7%

May 2016 $239,269 -17.1%

Economists' note : Median Sale Price is our preferred summary

statistic for price activity because, unlike Average Sale Price, Median

Sale Price is not sensitive to high sale prices for small numbers of

homes that may not be characteristic of the market area. Keep in mind

that median price trends over time are not always solely caused by

changes in the general value of local real estate. Median sale price only

reflects the values of the homes that sold each month, and the mix of

the types of homes that sell can change over time.

Economists' note : Usually, we prefer Median Sale Price over Average

Sale Price as a summary statistic for home prices. However, Average

Sale Price does have its uses—particularly when it is analyzed

alongside the Median Sale Price. For one, the relative difference

between the two statistics can provide some insight into the market for

higher-end homes in an area.December 2015 $209,033 -19.6%

November 2015 $227,579 -20.5%

February 2016 $267,108 17.4%

January 2016 $351,700 126.4%

July 2016 $212,680



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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Median Sale PriceThe median sale price reported for the month (i.e. 50% of sales were above and 50% of sales were below)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Average Sale PriceThe average sale price reported for the month (i.e. total sales in dollars divided by the number of sales)



Month Dollar VolumePercent Change

Year-over-Year

November 2016 $3.4 Million -21.1%

October 2016 $4.9 Million -11.5%

September 2016 $6.6 Million 85.5%

August 2016 $9.7 Million -1.9%

Economists' note : Dollar Volume is simply the sum of all sale prices

in a given time period, and can quickly be calculated by multiplying

Closed Sales by Average Sale Price. It is a strong indicator of the health

of the real estate industry in a market, and is of particular interest to

real estate professionals, investors, analysts, and government agencies.

Potential home sellers and home buyers, on the other hand, will likely

be better served by paying attention to trends in the two components

of Dollar Volume (i.e. sales and prices) individually.

July 2016 $4.0 Million -17.8%

June 2016 $6.2 Million 37.3%

May 2016 $6.9 Million -14.2%

April 2016 $5.6 Million -54.1%

March 2016 $5.4 Million -23.8%

February 2016 $5.3 Million 38.1%

January 2016 $6.7 Million 153.0%

December 2015 $2.5 Million -51.8%

November 2015 $4.3 Million -16.1%

MonthMed. Pct. of Orig. List

Price Received

Percent Change

Year-over-Year

November 2016 91.3% -4.3%

October 2016 91.1% -6.4%

September 2016 91.2% 0.9%

August 2016 91.7% -0.7%

April 2016 94.1% -0.2%

March 2016 94.3% 5.4%

June 2016 95.3% 0.2%

May 2016 91.7% -4.1%Economists' note : The Median Percent of Original List Price Received

is useful as an indicator of market recovery, since it typically rises as

buyers realize that the market may be moving away from them and

they need to match the selling price (or better it) in order to get a

contract on the house. This is usually the last measure to indicate a

market has shifted from down to up, so it is what we would call a

lagging indicator. December 2015 93.6% 4.7%

November 2015 95.4% -0.3%

February 2016 93.5% 4.6%

January 2016 94.0% 6.0%

July 2016 94.1% 1.1%



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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Dollar VolumeThe sum of the sale prices for all sales which closed during the month

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Median Percent of Original List Price ReceivedThe median of the sale price (as a percentage of the original list price) across all properties selling during the month



MonthMedian Time to

Contract

Percent Change

Year-over-Year

November 2016 113 Days 113.2%

October 2016 104 Days 352.2%

September 2016 93 Days 60.3%

August 2016 44 Days -72.2%

Economists' note : Like Time to Sale, Time to Contract is a measure of

the length of the home selling process calculated for sales which closed

during the month. The difference is that Time to Contract measures

the number of days between the initial listing of a property and the

signing of the contract which eventually led to the closing of the sale.

When the gap between Median Time to Contract and Median Time to

Sale grows, it is usually a sign of longer closing times and/or declining

numbers of cash sales.

July 2016 78 Days -4.9%

June 2016 38 Days -53.1%

May 2016 81 Days -2.4%

April 2016 67 Days 34.0%

March 2016 120 Days -7.0%

February 2016 93 Days -59.6%

January 2016 117 Days 138.8%

December 2015 121 Days -13.6%

November 2015 53 Days -53.9%

Month Median Time to SalePercent Change

Year-over-Year

November 2016 157 Days 60.2%

October 2016 127 Days 76.4%

September 2016 138 Days 86.5%

August 2016 106 Days -41.1%

Economists' note : Time to Sale is a measure of the length of the home

selling process, calculated as the number of days between the initial

listing of a property and the closing of the sale. Median Time to Sale is

the amount of time the "middle" property selling this month was on

the market. That is, 50% of homes selling this month took less time to

sell, and 50% of homes took more time to sell. Median Time to Sale

gives a more accurate picture than Average Time to Sale, which can be

skewed upward by small numbers of properties taking an abnormally

long time to sell.

July 2016 99 Days -25.6%

June 2016 133 Days 1.5%

May 2016 96 Days -17.9%

April 2016 106 Days 19.1%

March 2016 165 Days 1.2%

February 2016 142 Days -50.9%

January 2016 147 Days 83.8%

December 2015 140 Days -23.9%

November 2015 98 Days -41.0%


J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N0

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Median Time to ContractThe median number of days between the listing date and contract date for all Closed Sales during the month

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Median Time to SaleThe median number of days between the listing date and closing date for all Closed Sales during the month



Month New Pending SalesPercent Change

Year-over-Year

November 2016 23 35.3%

April 2016 24 -20.0%

October 2016 22 4.8%

September 2016 14 -44.0%

June 2016 24 20.0%

May 2016 19 -40.6%

August 2016 31 40.9%

July 2016 27 -27.0%

March 2016 27 -18.2%

February 2016 19 -36.7%

January 2016 33 26.9%

December 2015 13 -23.5%

November 2015 17 0.0%

Month New ListingsPercent Change

Year-over-Year

November 2016 21 -19.2%

October 2016 21 -19.2%

September 2016 26 -7.1%

August 2016 23 -42.5%

April 2016 39 2.6%

March 2016 25 -41.9%

48.1%

June 2016 35 9.4%

May 2016 28 -15.2%

Economists' note : New Listings tend to rise in delayed response to

increasing prices, so they are often seen as a lagging indicator of

market health. As prices rise, potential sellers raise their estimations

of value—and in the most recent cycle, rising prices have freed up

many potential sellers who were previously underwater on their

mortgages. Note that in our calculations, we take care to not include

properties that were recently taken off the market and quickly relisted,

since these are not really new listings.

Economists' note : Because of the typical length of time it takes for a

sale to close, economists consider Pending Sales to be a decent

indicator of potential future Closed Sales. It is important to bear in

mind, however, that not all Pending Sales will be closed successfully.

So, the effectiveness of Pending Sales as a future indicator of Closed

Sales is susceptible to changes in market conditions such as the

availability of financing for homebuyers and the inventory of

distressed properties for sale.

December 2015 17 -19.0%

November 2015 26 23.8%

February 2016 35 75.0%

January 2016 39 39.3%

July 2016 40



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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


New Pending SalesThe number of listed properties that went under contract during the month

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

New ListingsThe number of properties put onto the market during the month



November 2015 7.5 -33.0%

January 2016 7.7 -24.5%

December 2015 7.3 -29.1%

March 2016 8.0 -12.1%

February 2016 8.0 -14.0%

May 2016 8.8 6.0%

April 2016 8.8 0.0%

July 2016 9.6 26.3%

June 2016 9.5 10.5%

September 2016 9.7 26.0%

August 2016 9.1 12.3%

November 2016 9.4 25.3%

October 2016 9.6 28.0%

November 2015 179 -9.1%

Month Months SupplyPercent Change

Year-over-Year

January 2016 179 -4.8%

December 2015 169 -10.6%

March 2016 182 0.0%

February 2016 188 8.0%

May 2016 192 5.5%

April 2016 192 2.1%

-1.5%

July 2016 206 19.8%

June 2016 206 7.9%Economists' note : There are a number of ways to define and calculate

Inventory. Our method is to simply count the number of active listings

on the last day of the month, and hold this number to compare with the

same month the following year. Inventory rises when New Listings are

outpacing the number of listings that go off-market (regardless of

whether they actually sell). Likewise, it falls when New Listings aren't

keeping up with the rate at which homes are going off-market.

Economists' note : MSI is a useful indicator of market conditions. The

benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is

5.5 months of inventory. Anything higher is traditionally a buyers'

market, and anything lower is a sellers' market. There is no single

accepted way of calculating MSI. A common method is to divide

current Inventory by the most recent month's Closed Sales count, but

this count is a usually poor predictor of future Closed Sales due to

seasonal cycles. To eliminate seasonal effects, we use the 12-month

average of monthly Closed Sales instead.

Month InventoryPercent Change

Year-over-Year

November 2016 192 7.3%

October 2016 199 11.2%

September 2016 205 12.6%

August 2016 192



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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Inventory (Active Listings)The number of property listings active at the end of the month

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Months Supply of InventoryAn estimate of the number of months it will take to deplete the current Inventory given recent sales rates



$600,000 - $999,999 356 Days 67.1%

$1,000,000 or more (No Sales) N/A

Economists' note : Like Time to Sale, Time to Contract is a measure of

the length of the home selling process calculated for sales which closed

during the month. The difference is that Time to Contract measures

the number of days between the initial listing of a property and the

signing of the contract which eventually led to the closing of the sale.

When the gap between Median Time to Contract and Median Time to

Sale grows, it is usually a sign of longer closing times and/or declining

numbers of cash sales.

$150,000 - $199,999 6 Days -96.5%

$200,000 - $249,999 724 Days 5071.4%

$250,000 - $299,999

$400,000 - $599,999 (No Sales) N/A

133 Days N/A

$300,000 - $399,999 33 Days -86.4%

Economists' note: Closed Sales are one of the simplest—yet most

important—indicators for the residential real estate market. When

comparing Closed Sales across markets of different sizes, we

recommend comparing the percent changes in sales rather than the

number of sales. Closed Sales (and many other market metrics) are

affected by seasonal cycles, so actual trends are more accurately

represented by year-over-year changes (i.e. comparing a month's sales

to the amount of sales in the same month in the previous year), rather

than changes from one month to the next.

Sale PriceMedian Time to

Contract

Percent Change

Year-over-Year

Less than $50,000 306 Days N/A

$1,000,000 or more 0 -100.0%

$250,000 - $299,999 1 N/A

$300,000 - $399,999 2 0.0%

$50,000 - $99,999 153 Days 595.5%

$100,000 - $149,999

$400,000 - $599,999 0 N/A

$600,000 - $999,999 2 100.0%

220 Days 71.9%

$150,000 - $199,999 3 0.0%

$200,000 - $249,999 1 0.0%

$100,000 - $149,999 1 -75.0%

Sale Price Closed SalesPercent Change

Year-over-Year

Less than $50,000 2 N/A

$50,000 - $99,999 2 -71.4%

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Less than$50,000

$50,000 -$99,999

$100,000 -$149,999

$150,000 -$199,999

$200,000 -$249,999

$250,000 -$299,999

$300,000 -$399,999

$400,000 -$599,999

$600,000 -$999,999

$1,000,000 ormore

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Less than$50,000

$50,000 -$99,999

$100,000 -$149,999

$150,000 -$199,999

$200,000 -$249,999

$250,000 -$299,999

$300,000 -$399,999

$400,000 -$599,999

$600,000 -$999,999

$1,000,000 ormore

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Closed Sales by Sale PriceThe number of sales transactions which closed during the month

Median Time to Contract by Sale PriceThe median number of days between the listing date and contract date for all Closed Sales during the month



$600,000 - $999,999 32 10.3%

$1,000,000 or more 12 100.0%

Economists' note : There are a number of ways to define and calculate

Inventory. Our method is to simply count the number of active listings

on the last day of the month, and hold this number to compare with the

same month the following year. Inventory rises when New Listings are

outpacing the number of listings that go off-market (regardless of

whether they actually sell). Likewise, it falls when New Listings aren't

keeping up with the rate at which homes are going off-market.

$150,000 - $199,999 33 -2.9%

$200,000 - $249,999 10 42.9%

$250,000 - $299,999 10 -23.1%

$300,000 - $399,999 22 15.8%

$400,000 - $599,999 39 30.0%

$50,000 - $99,999 13 -35.0%

$100,000 - $149,999 15 -6.3%

Current Listing Price InventoryPercent Change

Year-over-Year

Less than $50,000 6 20.0%

$600,000 - $999,999 1 -66.7%

$1,000,000 or more 2 N/A

Economists' note: New Listings tend to rise in delayed response to

increasing prices, so they are often seen as a lagging indicator of

market health. As prices rise, potential sellers raise their estimations

of value—and in the most recent cycle, rising prices have freed up

many potential sellers who were previously underwater on their

mortgages. Note that in our calculations, we take care to not include

properties that were recently taken off the market and quickly relisted,

since these are not really new listings.

$150,000 - $199,999 6 100.0%

$200,000 - $249,999 0 -100.0%

$250,000 - $299,999 1 N/A

$300,000 - $399,999 2 -60.0%

$400,000 - $599,999 3 -40.0%

$50,000 - $99,999 3 50.0%

$100,000 - $149,999 2 -60.0%

Initial Listing Price New ListingsPercent Change

Year-over-Year

Less than $50,000 1 N/A

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Less than$50,000

$50,000 -$99,999

$100,000 -$149,999

$150,000 -$199,999

$200,000 -$249,999

$250,000 -$299,999

$300,000 -$399,999

$400,000 -$599,999

$600,000 -$999,999

$1,000,000 ormore

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Less than$50,000

$50,000 -$99,999

$100,000 -$149,999

$150,000 -$199,999

$200,000 -$249,999

$250,000 -$299,999

$300,000 -$399,999

$400,000 -$599,999

$600,000 -$999,999

$1,000,000 ormore

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New Listings by Initial Listing PriceThe number of properties put onto the market during the month

Inventory by Current Listing PriceThe number of property listings active at the end of the month

Closed Sales

Median Sale Price

Closed Sales

Median Sale Price

Closed Sales

Median Sale Price

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Short Sale

1 0 N/A

$65,000 (No Sales) N/A

Foreclosure/REO

1 2 -50.0%

$36,000 $92,500 -61.1%

November 2016 November 2015Percent Change

Year-over-Year

Traditional

12 17 -29.4%

$200,000 $137,000 46.0%

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Traditional Foreclosure/REO Short Sale

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



Monthly Distressed Market - November 2016


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Documents

Monthly Market Detail - November 2016 Single Family Homes · 2016-12-21 · of the real estate industry in a market, and is of particular interest to real estate professionals, investors,