Monthly Report May 28052020 - Finance · Title: Microsoft Word - Monthly Report May 28052020 Author: mof Created Date: 5/28/2020 1:50:13 PM

Monthly

ECONOMIC UPDATE

Economic Adviser’s Wing Finance Division

Government of Pakistan

May 2020

CONTENTS Page #

1. Economy at the Glance ........................................................................................... 1

2. Real Sector .............................................................................................................. 1

2.1 Agriculture .................................................................................................. 1

2.2 Manufacturing ............................................................................................. 2

3. Inflation ................................................................................................................... 4

4. Fiscal ....................................................................................................................... 5

5. Monetary ................................................................................................................ 6

6. External Sector ........................................................................................................ 6

7. Performance of KSE Index ..................................................................................... 9

8. Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 9

10. Economic Indicators ............................................................................................... 10

1 | P a g e Monthly Performance, April 2020, Economic Adviser’s Wing

1. Economy at the glance The global macroeconomic and financial landscape is witnessing unprecedented changes with Novel Corona virus emerging as the biggest threat to economic growth. April and May 2020 became the months of “Global Lockdown” with world economic activity coming to a standstill. The Corona virus pandemic impacting all sectors of the economy and Pakistan’s business sentiment started to plummet. Manufacturing Sector witnessed very sharp deterioration in business sentiments across all sectors. The growth rate for the FY2020 is estimated at -0.38 percent on account of subdued performance in industry and services sectors which stood at -2.64 percent and -0.59 percent respectively, while agriculture sector performed relatively better and grew by 2.67 percent over previous year. The Government of Pakistan has adopted a comprehensive fiscal support package aimed at accommodating the spending needs to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 shock. Government is increasing public health spending and strengthening social safety net to provide immediate cash support to a wider segment of the vulnerable population of the country. In addition, the State Bank of Pakistan has also introduced measures to support liquidity and credit conditions and safeguard financial stability. The government has launched “Ehsaas Emergency Cash Program”, the biggest cash distribution program in the history of Pakistan, with total allocation of Rs 144 billion to provide immediate cash relief of Rs 12,000 to 12 million families of daily wage earners, whose livelihood has been severely affected by the pandemic. Disbursements have been started for the said program and as on 28-05-2020, Rs 112.6 billion have been disbursed to 9.3 million beneficiaries. 2. Real Sector 2.1 Agriculture The agriculture sector during FY2020 grew by 2.67 percent compared to meagre growth of 0.58 percent during last year. The crops sector has witnessed positive growth of 2.98 percent. Positive growth in important crops i.e. 2.90 percent has been recorded due to increase in production of wheat (24.946 million ton), rice (7.410 million ton) and maize (7.236 million ton) at 2.45 percent, 2.89 percent and 6.01 percent, respectively compared to the production of last year. While cotton production (9.178 million bales) has went down to -6.92 percent and sugarcane -0.44 percent to (66.880 million ton). Other crops have shown growth of 4.57 percent mainly because of increase in production of pulses, oilseeds and vegetables. Cotton ginning has declined by -4.61 percent due to decrease in production of cotton crop. Livestock sector is showing a growth of 2.58 percent. The growth in forestry is witnessed at 2.29 percent. Agriculture sector did not witness any significant impact of COVID-19.

2 | P a g e

2.2 Manufacturing Amid COVID-19 outbreak, LSM basis (0.16% Feb FY2020). YOY, LSM decreased by 2019). LSM during July-March FY2020 stood at

In July-April FY2020, total cement dispatches in the country ton during July-April FY2020 (39.20 mn ton last year). Domestic dispatches increased by 1.07% to 33.858 mn ton in July-April FY2020; while, exports were up 17.35% to 6.695 mn ton.

0.58

-4.96-7.68

2.67 2.98

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Agriculture Sector

Crops Important

Agriculture sector Growth (%)

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180

Jul Aug Sep

LSM Index

Source:

Monthly Performance, April 2020, Economic Adviser’s Wing

19 outbreak, LSM nose-dive a record low to -21.9% in Mar FY2020 on MoYOY, LSM decreased by -22.9% in March 2020 (

March FY2020 stood at -5.4 % (-2.34% last year).

April FY2020, total cement dispatches in the country increased by 3.45% to 40.55 mn April FY2020 (39.20 mn ton last year). Domestic dispatches increased by 1.07%

April FY2020; while, exports were up 17.35% to 6.695 mn ton.

7.68

2.59

-12.74

3.82

7.87

2.94.57

-4.61

2.58 2.29

Important Crops

Other Crops Cotton Ginning Livestock Forestry

FY2019 FY2020Agriculture sector Growth (%)

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2018-19 2019-20

Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

2020, Economic Adviser’s Wing

21.9% in Mar FY2020 on MoM 22.9% in March 2020 (-7.357% March

increased by 3.45% to 40.55 mn

April FY2020 (39.20 mn ton last year). Domestic dispatches increased by 1.07% April FY2020; while, exports were up 17.35% to 6.695 mn ton.

0.82.290.6

Forestry Fishing

FY2020

Feb Mar

3 | P a g e

Closure of business activities amid recent sector, being labor intensive, is highly exposed to spread of pandemic.

Measures to Support Industrialization Government continue to provide Long

Scheme (EFS) at subsidized rate (LTFF 6%, EFS 3%). LTFF amount reached to Rs 36.99 billion (Rs 33.52 billion last year) during Julto Rs 109.186 billion (Rs 84.03 billion last year) during Jul

ECC has approved Rs 50.7 billion package to provide indirect cash flow support to the SMEs through pre-paid electricity bills for Mayo-SannatImadadi Package” will benefit around 3.5 million small businesses.

-6-4-202468

Non-Metallic Mineral Products

Sectors Showing Positive Growth (%)

-40-30-20-10010203040

Textile

Food, B

everag

es & To

bacco

Coke

& Petr

oleum

Produ

cts

Sectors Showing Negative Growth (%)


Closure of business activities amid recent health crisis dented the overall LSM.sector, being labor intensive, is highly exposed to COVID-19 thus severely affected by

Measures to Support Industrialization Government continue to provide Long-term Trade Financing (LTFF) and Export Finance Scheme (EFS) at subsidized rate (LTFF 6%, EFS 3%). LTFF amount reached to Rs 36.99 billion (Rs 33.52 billion last year) during July-April FY2020. Similarly, EFS amount reached

84.03 billion last year) during July-April FY2020 ECC has approved Rs 50.7 billion package to provide indirect cash flow support to the SMEs

paid electricity bills for May-July FY2020. This package named “ChotaKarobarwill benefit around 3.5 million small businesses.

Fertilizers Leather Products Paper & Board Rubber Products

FY2019Sectors Showing Positive Growth (%)

Coke

& Petr

oleum

Produ

cts

Pharm

aceuti

cal

Chem

icals

Autom

obiles

Iron &

Steel

Produ

cts

Electr

onics

FY2019 FY2020Showing Negative Growth (%)


health crisis dented the overall LSM. Textile

19 thus severely affected by

and Export Finance Scheme (EFS) at subsidized rate (LTFF 6%, EFS 3%). LTFF amount reached to Rs 36.99

20. Similarly, EFS amount reached

ECC has approved Rs 50.7 billion package to provide indirect cash flow support to the SMEs 20. This package named “ChotaKarobar-

Rubber Products

FY2020

Engin

eering

Produ

cts

Wood

Produc

ts

4 | P a g e

A stimulus package has also been introduced to support businesses and economy. According to the package, exportbillion worth of tax refunds and in

Government and SBP have introduced riskSMEs. Rs 30 billion has been allocated under a credit risk sharing facility for the banks spread over four years to share the burd

SBP will finance up to 100% of wages and salaries (Apraverage 3- month wage bill of up to

Along with the number of measures to combat by SBP through bringing interest rate

3. Inflation With outbreak of COVID-19, simultaneous supply and demand shocks both globally as well as domestically were observed due to lockcombination of policy measures to prices. The government also remained vigilant on the market situation for smooth supply of essential items. For relief to the common man, the government provideUtility Stores Corporation (USC). Thus, essential commodities such as wheat flour, sugar, pulses and cooking oil/ ghee in Utility Stores Corporation subsidized prices. All these measures helped in cfell to 8.5 percent in April 2020. This was third successive month showing decline in inflation, whereas it dropped more than 6 percent in last three months. Hence during the period JulFY2020, it is recorded at 11.22 percent

Sensitive price Indicator (SPI) monitors the price movement of 51 essential items on weekly basis. The SPI for the week ended on 14items recorded decline in their prices, 14 items increased while 26 items remain

8.6 8.3 8.4 8.0

02468

10121416

Mar-1

9

Apr-1

9

May-1

9

Jun-19

Year on Year CPI

%


A stimulus package has also been introduced to support businesses and economy. According to the package, export-oriented industries would be given billion worth of tax refunds and interest payments have also been deferred.

have introduced risk-sharing mechanism to support bank lending to 30 billion has been allocated under a credit risk sharing facility for the banks

spread over four years to share the burden of losses due to any bad loans in future.will finance up to 100% of wages and salaries (April-June 2020) of businesses with

month wage bill of up to Rs 500 million. Along with the number of measures to combat COVID-19, borrowing has been

nterest rate at 8%.

19, simultaneous supply and demand shocks both globally as well as due to lock-down. For price stability, the government pursued

combination of policy measures to ensure adequate availability of consumer goods. The government also remained vigilant on the market situation for smooth supply of

. For relief to the common man, the government provided major subsidy to the Utility Stores Corporation (USC). Thus, essential commodities such as wheat flour, sugar, pulses and cooking oil/ ghee in Utility Stores Corporation are being provided to consumers at subsidized prices. All these measures helped in contracting the CPI-national to single digit which fell to 8.5 percent in April 2020. This was third successive month showing decline in inflation, whereas it dropped more than 6 percent in last three months. Hence during the period Jul

recorded at 11.22 percent.

Sensitive price Indicator (SPI) monitors the price movement of 51 essential items on weekly basis. The SPI for the week ended on 14th May, 2020 increased by 0.01%. During the week, 11 items recorded decline in their prices, 14 items increased while 26 items remained

8.410.5 11.4 11.0

12.7 12.614.6

12.4

Jul-19

Aug-1

9

Sep-19

Oct-1

9

Nov-1

9

Dec-1

9

Jan-20

Feb-20


A stimulus package has also been introduced to support businesses and to stimulate the oriented industries would be given Rs 100

sharing mechanism to support bank lending to 30 billion has been allocated under a credit risk sharing facility for the banks

en of losses due to any bad loans in future. 2020) of businesses with

19, borrowing has been further eased

19, simultaneous supply and demand shocks both globally as well as down. For price stability, the government pursued

adequate availability of consumer goods at reasonable . The government also remained vigilant on the market situation for smooth supply of

d major subsidy to the Utility Stores Corporation (USC). Thus, essential commodities such as wheat flour, sugar, pulses

to consumers at national to single digit which

fell to 8.5 percent in April 2020. This was third successive month showing decline in inflation, whereas it dropped more than 6 percent in last three months. Hence during the period Jul-April

Sensitive price Indicator (SPI) monitors the price movement of 51 essential items on weekly

May, 2020 increased by 0.01%. During the week, 11 ed stable.

10.28.5

Mar-2

0

Apr-2

0


4. Fiscal The fiscal performance till March, 2020 has shown significant improvement as fiscal deficit has been reduced to 3.8% during July-March, FY2020 (5.0% last year). Similarly, primary balance has posted a surplus of Rs 193.5 bn during July-March, FY2020 against the deficit of Rs 463.3 bn last year. Fiscal deficit has been contained due to a sharp rise in non-tax revenues and significant improvement in provincial surplus during July-March, FY2020. Within revenues, non-tax rebounded during the first nine months of current fiscal year on account of substantial rise in profits by State Bank of Pakistan and PTA. On expenditure side, PSDP expenditures grew by 24.9% to reach Rs 722.5 bn during July-March, FY2020 (Rs 578.5 bn last year). Moreover, all provinces posted a cumulative surplus of Rs 394.1 bn during July-March, FY2020 (Rs 291.6 bn last year). FBR Tax Collection FBR tax collection increased by 10.8 % to stand at Rs 3,300.6 bn during July-April, FY2020 (Rs 2,980.0 bn last year). Within total, the domestic tax collection grew by 14.7% to Rs 2,777.7 bn in first ten months of current fiscal year (Rs 2,421.1 bn last year).

The net collection of direct taxes increased by 14.1% to Rs 1,223.2 bn during July-April, FY2020 (Rs 1,071.7 bn last year), while indirect taxes registered a growth of 8.9% to Rs 2,077.4 bn in first ten months of CFY 2019-20 (Rs 1,908.3 bn last year). Within indirect taxes, sales tax grew by 15.7%, Federal excise Duty increased by 12.0% and customs duty declined by 6.5%. It is worth mentioning that FBR tax collection witnessed a significant performance during first eight months of CFY, when revenue collection grew above 17%, however, the outbreak of COVID-19 has affected tax collection during the months of March and April. Tax collection has declined by 13.2% and 13.5% in March and April, respectively. Overall, significant shortfall in tax revenues is expected during the CFY due to slowdown in economic activity.

1,223 1,0721,348 1,165206 184523 559

3,301 2,980

FY2020 FY2019

FBR Tax Collection (Jul-Apr) Rs.bnDirect Taxes Sales Tax FED Customs Grand Total

108

137

81

144

116

98

22

21

20

53

48

41

326

322

240

Feb,2020

Mar,2020

Apr,2020

Month-Wise FBR Tax Collection (Rs.bn)Direct Taxes Sales TaxFED CustomsGrand Total

6 | P a g e

5. Monetary Due to improved inflation outlook resulting from fall in domestic oil pricesCommittee decided to cut the policy rate by a further by 525bps in two months will help to achieve growth and employment and to provide relief to the people suffering from pandemic1,718.7 bn during July 2019 to showing government spending to fight against COVID

6. External Sector Pakistan’s current account deficit (CAD) reduced by 71% to $ 3.3 bn (1.5 % of GDP) during JulApr FY2020 against $ 11.4 bn last year (4.8 % of GDP). A sharp decline in import growth due to suppressed domestic activity and a minor decline in export growth due to globabeen observed. Exports declined by 2.4 % to $ 19.6 bn ($ 20.1 bn last year) during the period under review. Imports declined by 16.9 % to $ 36.1 bn ($ 43.4 bn last year). Consequently, trade deficit reduced by 29.5 % to $ 16.4 bn ($ 23.3 bn7.6% to $ 4.7 bn ($5.1 bn last year). The import of Services declined by 18.9% and is $7.3 bn ($9.0 bn last year).

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

FY2019FY2020

Net Foreign Assets (Flows in Rs. Billion)

101,435

43,80998,426

43,605

Knitwear (TH.Doz)

Readymade garments (TH.Doz)

Bed Wear (MT)

Cotton Yarn (MT)

Basmati (MT)

Major Exports in terms of Quantity


Due to improved inflation outlook resulting from fall in domestic oil prices, Committee decided to cut the policy rate by a further 100 basis points to 8 %. A

will help to achieve growth and employment and to provide relief to suffering from pandemic. Broad money (M2) expanded by 9.66 % and reached to

y 2019 to 1st May, 2020 reflecting higher Net Foreign Assets (NFA)showing government spending to fight against COVID-19.

current account deficit (CAD) reduced by 71% to $ 3.3 bn (1.5 % of GDP) during JulApr FY2020 against $ 11.4 bn last year (4.8 % of GDP). A sharp decline in import growth due to suppressed domestic activity and a minor decline in export growth due to globabeen observed. Exports declined by 2.4 % to $ 19.6 bn ($ 20.1 bn last year) during the period under review. Imports declined by 16.9 % to $ 36.1 bn ($ 43.4 bn last year). Consequently, trade deficit reduced by 29.5 % to $ 16.4 bn ($ 23.3 bn last year). Export of services has declined by 7.6% to $ 4.7 bn ($5.1 bn last year). The import of Services declined by 18.9% and is $7.3 bn

Jan Feb Mar Apr

in Rs. Billion)

-1000-500

0500

100015002000

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

FY2019FY2020

Net Domestic Assets (Flows in

350,433

352,629343,681

361,362

515,737Major Exports in terms of Quantity

Jul-Mar FY 2019 QuantityJul-Mar FY 2020 Quantity


Monetary Policy . A cumulative cut

will help to achieve growth and employment and to provide relief to and reached to Rs

Net Foreign Assets (NFA) and

current account deficit (CAD) reduced by 71% to $ 3.3 bn (1.5 % of GDP) during Jul-Apr FY2020 against $ 11.4 bn last year (4.8 % of GDP). A sharp decline in import growth due to suppressed domestic activity and a minor decline in export growth due to global slowdown have been observed. Exports declined by 2.4 % to $ 19.6 bn ($ 20.1 bn last year) during the period under review. Imports declined by 16.9 % to $ 36.1 bn ($ 43.4 bn last year). Consequently, trade

last year). Export of services has declined by 7.6% to $ 4.7 bn ($5.1 bn last year). The import of Services declined by 18.9% and is $7.3 bn

Jan Feb Mar Apr

in Rs Billion)

767,234

Mar FY 2019 QuantityMar FY 2020 Quantity

7 | P a g e

Foreign Direct Investment FDI increased by 126.8% and reached $ 2281.4 mn during Jul$ 1009.0 mn last year. On year on year basisin April FY2020 as compared to $ 100.8 mn in the same month last year. The inflows of FDI reached $ 2871.5 mn during Jul-with a growth of 24.1%. The outflows of FDI during Julstood at$ 590.1 mn compared to

Foreign Portfolio Investment Due to uncertainty in the economy, capital began flowing out of the country. Foreign Private Portfolio Investment registered a net outflow of US$ 79.1 million in inflows are Singapore ($0.8 Mn) Netherlands ($0.5 Mn), South Koreaoutflows destinations were United States ($46.2 Mn), United Kingdom ($11.3 Mn) and Luxembourg ($ 9.2 Mn). Below is the trend over the past fourteen months.

9%5%

8%4%

13%5%

22%

ChinaMalta

U.KHong Kong

U.S.ANorway

NetherlandsAll others

0% 10% 20% 30%

Country-Wise FDI (July-April FY 2020)

0.5 (1.1)

1.4 16.0

-23.1

Feb-19

Mar-1

9

Apr-1

9

May-1

9

Jun-19

Foreign Private Portfolio Investment (Million $)


FDI increased by 126.8% and reached $ 2281.4 mn during July-April FY2020 as compared to $ 1009.0 mn last year. On year on year basis, FDI increased by 32.1% and reached to $ 133.2 mn

20 as compared to $ 100.8 mn in the same month last year. The inflows of FDI -April FY2020 compared to $ 2314.2 mn same period last year,

with a growth of 24.1%. The outflows of FDI during July-April FY2020 decreased by 54.9% and 590.1 mn compared to $ 1308.2 mn in the same period last year.

Due to uncertainty in the economy, capital began flowing out of the country. Foreign Private Portfolio Investment registered a net outflow of US$ 79.1 million in April. Countries with Major inflows are Singapore ($0.8 Mn) Netherlands ($0.5 Mn), South Korea ($0.2 Mn), and. While outflows destinations were United States ($46.2 Mn), United Kingdom ($11.3 Mn) and Luxembourg ($ 9.2 Mn). Below is the trend over the past fourteen months.

41%30% 40% 50%

April FY 2020)

11%

11%6%

15%

PowerOil & Gas Exploration

CommunicationFinancial Business

Electrical MachineryAll Others

0% 10% 20%

Sector-Wise FDI (July-April FY 2020)

23.1

33.9

2.4

(13.6) (7.1)3.93

-0.782.8

-47.9

Jul-19

Aug-1

9

Sep-19

Oct-1

9

Nov-1

9

Dec-1

9

Jan-20

Feb-20

Foreign Private Portfolio Investment (Million $)


20 as compared to FDI increased by 32.1% and reached to $ 133.2 mn

20 as compared to $ 100.8 mn in the same month last year. The inflows of FDI 2314.2 mn same period last year,

20 decreased by 54.9% and

Due to uncertainty in the economy, capital began flowing out of the country. Foreign Private . Countries with Major ($0.2 Mn), and. While

outflows destinations were United States ($46.2 Mn), United Kingdom ($11.3 Mn) and

34%11%

22%

15%

20% 30% 40%

April FY 2020)

47.9

-77.3 -79.1

Feb-20

Mar-2

0

Apr-2

0

8 | P a g e

Foreign Public Portfolio Investment registered a net outflow of $565.6 Mn. FPI is depicted below:

Worker’s Remittances Remittances reached to $ 18781.62 mn during Julwith a growth of 5.5%. On Y-o-Y basis, remittances witnessed a growth of 1.1 % in April 2020, recorded $1790.0 mn ($ 17770.2 mn last year). Share of remittances from Saudi Arabia 23.3 % ($ 4377.0 mn), U.A.E 20.8% ($ 3905.9 mn), USA 17.5 % ($ 3282.3 mn), U.K 14.8 % ($ 2780.8 mn), other GCC countries 9.5% ($ 1779.8 mn), Malaysia 6.6 % ($ 1242.3 mn), EU 2.8515.2 mn) and other countries 4.8 %.

(0.8)

(999.9)

0.2 (1.5)

Mar-1

9

Apr-1

9

May-1

9

Jun-19

FOREIGN PUBLIC PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT ($ MILLION)

JulyAugust

SeptemberOctober

NovemberDecember

JanuaryFebruray

MarchApril

Source: State Bank of Pakistan

Worker's Remittances ($ Million)


Foreign Public Portfolio Investment registered a net outflow of $565.6 Mn. The trend of public

Remittances reached to $ 18781.62 mn during July-April FY2020, ($ 17801.01 mn last year), Y basis, remittances witnessed a growth of 1.1 % in April 2020,

ed $1790.0 mn ($ 17770.2 mn last year). Share of remittances from Saudi Arabia 23.3 % ($ 4377.0 mn), U.A.E 20.8% ($ 3905.9 mn), USA 17.5 % ($ 3282.3 mn), U.K 14.8 % ($ 2780.8 mn), other GCC countries 9.5% ($ 1779.8 mn), Malaysia 6.6 % ($ 1242.3 mn), EU 2.8515.2 mn) and other countries 4.8 %.

(1.5)0.0 71.0 250.8 114.9

700.1

(684.5)

1,387.3

321.5

Jul-19

Aug-1

9

Sep-19

Oct-1

9

Nov-1

9

Dec-1

9

Jan-20

Feb-20

FOREIGN PUBLIC PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT ($ MILLION)Source: SBP

1681.041737.16

1820.26

1907.631824.95

1894.381790.03

Source: State Bank of Pakistan

Worker's Remittances ($ Million)


The trend of public

April FY2020, ($ 17801.01 mn last year), Y basis, remittances witnessed a growth of 1.1 % in April 2020,

ed $1790.0 mn ($ 17770.2 mn last year). Share of remittances from Saudi Arabia 23.3 % ($ 4377.0 mn), U.A.E 20.8% ($ 3905.9 mn), USA 17.5 % ($ 3282.3 mn), U.K 14.8 % ($ 2780.8 mn), other GCC countries 9.5% ($ 1779.8 mn), Malaysia 6.6 % ($ 1242.3 mn), EU 2.8 % ($

321.5

-1830.1

-565.6

Mar-2

0

Apr-2

0

2027.99

2000.88

2097.31907.63

1894.38

FY2020

FY2019


7. Performance of KSE Index As a result of the government’s stimulus package and 525 basis points cut in the SBP’s policy rate, stock market regained some of its lost value. On April 30th, 2020, KSE-100 closed at 34111.64, (up by 16.7% in comparison to March 31st value) and market capitalization closed at Rs 6376.71 billion, gaining Rs 755.77 billion since March 31st 2020.

The SECP introduced a number of measures like increasing the duration of index-based market halts etc to facilitate capital market operations in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic. The index is expected to improve in May 2020. Conclusion The outbreak of Corona virus has affected entire globe and so has adversely affected Pakistan’s economic growth for FY2020. Pakistan’s domestic production and exports have suffered due to less supply of intermediate goods, decrease in global demand and commodity prices. The economic slump in China, USA, EU and Middle East has affected Pakistan’s exports and remittances inflows. The slowdown has negatively affected tax revenues whereas government spending has overrun due to special stimulus measures. Major decline in oil prices in recent past is, however, a positive sign for Pakistan’s economy especially on current account deficit and on inflationary pressures.

___________________

52005400560058006000620064006600

270002800029000300003100032000330003400035000

01-Ap

r-20

02-Ap

r-20

03-Ap

r-20

04-Ap

r-20

05-Ap

r-20

06-Ap

r-20

07-Ap

r-20

08-Ap

r-20

09-Ap

r-20

10-Ap

r-20

11-Ap

r-20

12-Ap

r-20

13-Ap

r-20

14-Ap

r-20

15-Ap

r-20

16-Ap

r-20

17-Ap

r-20

18-Ap

r-20

19-Ap

r-20

20-Ap

r-20

21-Ap

r-20

22-Ap

r-20

23-Ap

r-20

24-Ap

r-20

25-Ap

r-20

26-Ap

r-20

27-Ap

r-20

28-Ap

r-20

29-Ap

r-20

30-Ap

r-20

Source: Pakistan Stock Exchange

KSE (100) Index Market Capitalization (Rhs)


Economic Indicators (28.05.2020) 2018-19 2019-20 %

Change Jul-Apr Jul-Apr External Sector Exports ($ bn)

20.1 19.7 ↓ 2.4 Imports ($ bn)

43.4 36.1 ↓16.9 Trade Deficit ($ bn)

23.3 16.4 ↓ 29.5 Remittances($ bn) 17.8 18.8

↑5.5

Current Account Deficit ($ bn) 11.4 3.3

↓ 70.8 Current Account Deficit (% of GDP) 4.8 1.5 ↓ FDI ($ mn) 145.4 (March) 278.7 (March) ↑91.7 100.8 (April) 133.2 (April) ↑32.1 1006.0

2281.4

↑ 126.8

Portfolio Investment-Net ($ mn) -1408.7 -417.2

↑

Total Foreign Investment ($ mn) (FDI & Portfolio Investment) -402.7

1864.1

↑ 563

Forex Reserves ($ bn) 15.124 (SBP: 8.055) (Banks: 7.069) (On 20th May

2019)

18.598 (SBP: 12.129) (Banks: 6.469) (On 20th May

2020)

Exchange rate (PKR/US$) 149.65 (On 20th May 2019)

160.77 (On 20th May 2020)

Source: SBP


(Rs bn) 2018-19 2019-20 %

Change Jul-Mar Jul-Mar Fiscal FBR Revenue (provisional) 2980

(Jul-Apr) 3300 (Jul-Apr) ↑ 10.8

Non Tax Revenue 422 1096

↑ 159 Expenditures 3678.3

4455.7

↑ 21.1

Federal PSDP (incl. grants to provinces) 331

417

↑ 26.1 Fiscal Deficit 1922

1686

↓ 12.3

Monetary Sector Agriculture Credit (provisional)

804.9 912.2

↑ 13.3

Government borrowing from SBP

4967.8 (1st Jul–10th May 2019)

-552.2 (1st Jul –8th May 2020)

Credit to private sector (Flows) 563.1 (1st Jul–10th May 2019)

298.1 (1st Jul –8th May 2020)

Total Credit 533.2 (Jul-Apr) 187.3

(Jul-Apr) Working Capital 345.6 28.8

Fixed Investment 85.2 -5.2

Trade Financing 102.4 163.8 Policy Rate (%) 12.25

(w.e.f 21-May-19) 8.00 (w.e.f 15-May-2020)

Source: SBP & FBR, Budget Wing


2018-19 2019-20 %

Change Inflation CPI (National) (%) 8.3 (April) 8.5 (April) 6.5 (Jul-Apr) 11.2 (Jul-Apr) Real Sector Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) (%)

-1.50 (February)

-0.21 (February)

-7.35 (March) -22.95 (March) -2.34 (Jul-Mar) -5.40 (Jul-Mar)

Miscellaneous PSX Index* 33996 (On 1st Jul 2019) 33933 (On 20th May

2020) ↓ 0.19

Market Capitalization (Rs trn) 6.89 (On 1st Jul 2019) 6.47 On 20th May 2020)

↓ 6.10

Market Capitalization ($ bn)

43.58 (On 1st Jul 2019)

40.24 On 20th May

2020) ↓ 7.66

Incorporation of Companies 12344 (Jul-Apr) 14636 (Jul-Apr) ↑ 18.57 *: Formerly Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) Source: PBS, PSX & SECP

Documents

Monthly Report May 28052020 - Finance · Title: Microsoft Word - Monthly Report May 28052020 Author: mof Created Date: 5/28/2020 1:50:13 PM